Face it. You’ve thought about this at home or at work. You’ve done it when you’re with family and friends. You’ve even thought about it before bed and when you should be watching your favorite team.

Who is going to make the national team for [insert nation] at the Olympics?

Every national team is facing tough personnel decisions. Some more than others. But it all comes with the caveat that so much can change until it’s time to submit their final rosters at the end of December.

Until then, here’s a projection examining what the teams for Canada, Czechia, Finland, Sweden and the United States might look like ahead of the Winter Olympics men’s hockey tournament that begins Feb. 11 in Milan-Cortina.

Jump to a roster:
United States
Canada
Sweden
Finland
Czechia

United States

Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.

Names to watch: G Joey Daccord, F Alex DeBrincat, G Thatcher Demko, D Lane Hutson, F Patrick Kane, F Chris Kreider, F Frank Nazar, F Shane Pinto, F Jason Robertson, F Vincent Trocheck, F Trevor Zegras

From the point: Finding options isn’t going to be a problem for Team USA. Within this projected roster, the Americans can field a lineup that possesses balance and versatility in many areas.

Yet it appears that the two players who could impact Team USA’s roster selection process might be Patrick Kane and Vincent Trocheck. Kane is currently injured and has been out of the lineup since mid-October. Before the injury, he had five points in as many games, which allowed him to present an early case for making the roster in what’s a crowded field at winger.

Trocheck was injured in the second game of the season and began practicing with the New York Rangers on Monday. A fully healthy Trocheck would give Team USA another two-way center who can be trusted to play in numerous situations — as well as one more selection discussion for what makes the most sense down the middle.

How does Thatcher Demko factor into the goaltending discussion?

The U.S. is believed to have the strongest set of goalies of any team eligible for the Olympics. But should its group of three include Demko?

The Vancouver Canucks goaltender was a Vezina Trophy finalist in the 2023-24 season before an injury-riddled 2024-25 season saw him struggle to attain consistency. As of Tuesday, Demko’s save percentage (.911) and goals-against average (2.57) were significantly better than Jeremy Swayman‘s marks (.896, 3.14). He is also fourth in goals saved above average, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Canada

Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.

Names to watch: F Connor Bedard, F Sam Bennett, G Mackenzie Blackwood, D Evan Bouchard, F Anthony Cirelli, D Noah Dobson, F Bo Horvat, F Zach Hyman, D Mike Matheson, F John Tavares

From the point: A wealth of options is Canada’s greatest strength while simultaneously being its biggest challenge. With this particular projection, there is a two-way element with many of the forwards, while the defensive setup has puck movers partnered with stay-at-home options who have size. There are remaining questions:

• What happens if Zach Hyman returns from his wrist injury and provides consistent production?

• How does Canada’s goalie situation change if Mackenzie Blackwood, who has also been injured to start the season, can find consistency?

• Can any of the players who missed the cut in this projection get back on the radar with a strong next month?

Could Canada take Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini?

Speed — and those who know how to use that speed in tight spaces — played a big role in Canada’s success at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Although Canada has numerous players like that in this projection, is it possible it could add more by bringing in Bedard and moving Celebrini into the active lineup?

Both provide another offensive dimension, and Celebrini has shown he can handle the demands of being a two-way center. Either way, expect both to be heavily in the mix in 2030.

Sweden

Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.

Names to watch: F Mikael Backlund, F Andre Burakovsky, D Philip Broberg, D Simon Edvinsson, G Samuel Ersson, D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D Adam Larsson, F Victor Olofsson

From the point: Sweden appears to have balance throughout its lineup in this projection, although there could still be certain adjustments. Namely, what makes the most sense for Sweden at left wing?

Lucas Raymond and Jesper Bratt have had starts that justify them being on the top two lines; it’s at the bottom two lines where the questions begin. Gabriel Landeskog has three points through his first 13 games though his average ice time is seventh among forwards on the Colorado Avalanche. Before Rickard Rakell broke his hand, he had eight points in nine games; he’ll return sometime in December. And of course, there’s the discussion about whether Sweden should use Elias Pettersson down the middle or on the wing.

Sweden also could be facing questions related to Linus Ullmark‘s struggles to start the season, and if the team could be inclined to take a look at Edvinsson after his start.

Are Simon Edvinsson and Victor Olofsson becoming too hard to ignore?

Playing for two of the top teams in the NHL entering November usually attracts attention, which is the case for Edvinsson and Olofsson.

Edvinsson has continued to carve out his place as one of the Red Wings’ most important players. He has played a top-pairing role, is second on the team in average ice time and 5-on-5 minutes, and is fourth in short-handed minutes.

Olofsson is operating in a top-nine role for the Avs and has used that opportunity to be fifth on the team in points. He’s on pace for a career-high 63 points this season.

Finland

Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.

Names to watch: F Kasperi Kapanen, G Joonas Korpisalo, F Patrik Laine, F Jani Nyman, F Juuso Parssinen, C Aatu Raty, F Eeli Tolvanen, D Juuso Valimaki

From the point: Finland’s potential roster has been — and will likely continue to be — impacted by major injuries this season.

Aleksander Barkov, who was one of Finland’s “first six,” tore an ACL and MCL in training camp, and was the first domino to fall. Finland has seen other players — such as Kaapo Kakko, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Rasmus Ristolainen — miss the start of the regular season while recovering from injuries. Kakko played his first game Nov. 1, Luukkonen made his debut Oct. 25, and Ristolainen is expected to be out until December with a triceps injury.

Patrik Laine sustained a core muscle injury in late October, which could see him miss at least three months — and potentially place his Olympic chances in jeopardy.

What does Finland’s plan look like should more injuries arise?

It’s possible that Finland could find some relief should Laine be cleared to play at the Olympics. But in the event he’s not, Finland could be tempted to turn to some of its younger players in the NHL such as Nyman, Parssinen and Raty at forward. All three entered Nov. 3 with either the same or slightly more points than Jesperi Kotkaniemi in a similar number of games. There’s also the possibility that Finland could opt for more experienced forwards such as Kasperi Kapanen or Eeli Tolvanen.

Another option for Finland’s defense is Valimaki. He was named to Finland’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster but didn’t play. He tore an ACL in March and is expected to return sometime around November or December. He could be an option, given there have been only seven Finnish defensemen who have played in the NHL this season entering November.

Czechia

Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.

Names to watch: F Filip Chlapik, F Jakub Lauko, F Adam Klapka, D Jan Kostalek, F Tomas Nosek, F Michael Spacek, F Matej Stransky, F Simon Stransky, G Karel Vejmelka, F Adam Zboril

From the point: Tomas Hertl, Martin Necas, David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha have had the sort of starts to the season that strengthen the notion Czechia’s top-six forward corps could make a significant impact at the Games.

Now it’s a matter of determining what Czechia could receive from its supporting cast — with a number of them playing outside of the NHL.

In the most recent men’s IIHF World Championship, Roman Cevenka and Lukas Sedlak finished second and third on the team in points. They’ve continued to produce in the Czech Extraliga, the nation’s top professional league. Jakub Flek has opened the season with 15 goals and 22 points through 21 games.

Which two goalies will join Lukas Dostal on the Czechia roster?

There was a time when Czechia seemed poised to take Dostal, Vejmelka and Dan Vladar as its three goalies. But that appears to have changed — or at least merited a conversation.

The expectation is that Dostal, who was among the first six players named to Czechia’s provisional roster, will be the starter. As for the rest of the field? Jakub Dobes has won his first six games, while his GSAA ranks third in the NHL, per Natural Stat Trick. Vladar entered Tuesday ranked third in goals-against average (2.11) and save percentage (.924) while being 14th in GSAA.

Although Vejmelka has the same number of wins (six) as Dobes, he was 25th in goals-against average, 34th in save percentage and 55th in GSAA.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A federal judge on Tuesday issued a key victory for two race teams, one owned by Michael Jordan, that further pressures NASCAR to settle the antitrust lawsuit filed against it by 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports.

NASCAR commissioner Steve Phelps said last week the series is “trying our hardest” to settle the federal antitrust lawsuit with the two teams suing in the most expansive comments yet from the defendants.

U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell ruled Tuesday in favor of 23XI, owned by Jordan and three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin, and Bob Jenkins-owned Front Row, on an argument over the market definition of “premier stock-car racing.” Bell found that NASCAR controls the market and NASCAR’s argument that teams can race in other series is moot.

The teams said in alleging the relevant market for premier stock car racing teams that “NASCAR’s Cup Series is currently the only buyer.” The argument was backed by the the expert opinion of Dr. Daniel Rascher, who concluded that “premier stock car racing” is a distinct form of automobile racing, and other types of motorsports like Formula 1 and IndyCar, and all lower levels of stock car racing, are not an equal substitute to NASCAR.

NASCAR in a counterclaim said the teams unlawfully conspired in banding together for negotiations on new charter agreements, but Bell found “NASCAR deliberate(ly), clear(ly) and unambiguous(ly)” alleged that the relevant market is “the market for entry of cars into NASCAR Cup Series races in the United States and any other location where a Cup Series race is held.”

“The same transaction — the sale and purchase of premier stock car racing services — cannot be a different relevant market depending only on which side is complaining,” Bell wrote. “Most simply put, NASCAR made a strategic decision in asserting its Counterclaim and must now live with the consequences.”

The lawsuit was filed a year ago by 23XI Racing and Front Row Racing when they were the only two organizations out of 15 to not sign extensions on new charter agreements.

The new charter agreements were presented to the teams at the start of the 2024 playoffs with a deadline for them to sign. It followed more than two years of tense negotiations over the charters, which are at the heart of NASCAR’s business model as they guarantee revenue and access to weekly races.

23XI and Front Row likely will go out of business without them and are racing this season unchartered, which comes with significantly reduced prize money.

Other teams have called for a settlement to move forward, but mediation sessions and private negotiations have not worked. The trial is scheduled for Dec. 1.

“We are very pleased with the Court’s decision today, ruling in our favor. Not only does it deny NASCAR’s motion for summary judgment, but it also grants our partial summary judgment motion, finding that NASCAR has monopoly power in a properly defined market,” said Jeffrey Kessler, the attorney representing 23XI and Front Row.

“This means that the trial can now be focused on whether NASCAR has maintained that power through anticompetitive acts and used that power to harm teams. We’re prepared to present our case to the jury and are focused on obtaining a verdict that benefits all of the teams, partners, drivers, and the fans.”

NASCAR in its own statement touted the commitment it has shown into building NASCAR into the top motorsports series in the United States since its 1948 formation. Phelps did the same last week while reading from a statement that ran more than six minutes; he defended the Florida-based France family who founded and controls NASCAR and most of the tracks the series uses for events.

“NASCAR looks forward to proving that it became the leading motorsport in the United States through hard work, risk-taking, and many significant investments over the past 77 years,” NASCAR said in a statement. “The antitrust laws encourage this — and NASCAR has done nothing anticompetitive in building the sport from the ground up since 1948.

“While we respect the Court’s decision, we believe it is legally flawed and we will address it at trial and in the Fourth Circuit if necessary. NASCAR believes in the charter system and will continue to defend it from 23XI and Front Row’s efforts to claim that the charter system itself is anticompetitive.”

Most of the organizations that did sign the new charter agreements last year submitted declarations to the court in support of the charter system and calling for a settlement to the case. All the teams want the charters to become permanent, which NASCAR refused to budge on during negotiations for the current agreement.

Should a settlement not be reached before the trial and NASCAR loses, the entire charter system is at risk of being disbanded or overhauled. Teams are frustrated by that threat, and it is understood that NASCAR has since agreed to make the charters permanent and the snag in settlement talks is the amount of money 23XI and Front Row is demanding in damages and legal fees.

Teams are concerned that NASCAR’s entire framework could be torn apart by a loss and are aggravated that it would be over the monetary demands being made by 23XI and Front Row.

Bell last week issued another win for 23XI and Front Row when he dismissed NASCAR’s countersuit against Curtis Polk, the longtime business manager for Jordan and one of 23XI’s owners.

FOR THE FIRST time in 32 years, the Toronto Blue Jays won the American League pennant.

They also came up just short of snapping their World Series title drought, dropping a memorable, tense, 11-inning Game 7 to the Los Angeles Dodgers at a rollicking Rogers Centre on Saturday.

To push the defending champs as far as they could be pushed, Toronto leaned on a diverse, balanced offense that ranked among MLB’s best all season (fourth in runs per game) and somehow got better in the playoffs despite the unforgiving crucible created by October-style pitching staffs.

All of this from a team that just a year ago finished last in the AL East and ranked 23rd in scoring. All this from a team that, after some disappointing free agent pursuits over the past couple of years, entered the playoffs with largely the same roster as last year.

This year, at least, splashy overhauls were overrated.

“The players that are here, they have continued to get better,” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said at the Series’ outset.

As the powder-blue dust settles from a magical run that saw the Blue Jays turn an entire nation on its proverbial ear, questions are turning to whether their accomplishment can be replicated. Some of it is standard: whether the latest “it” team can sustain its sudden rise. In a larger sense, though, the baseball industry is wondering what this Toronto run means.

Featuring an offense whose standout trait was an MLB-best batting average, the Blue Jays weren’t just a successful team that adapted to every challenge along the way. The Blue Jays were fun, an absolute gas to watch — for the simple reason that they put the ball in play.

They were led by one of the most fun players in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who spent the past month terrorizing opposing pitchers. He did it with an elite combination of contact and pop, something that his teammates emulated as best they could. In becoming more like Vladdy, the Toronto offense turned into a juggernaut. And, now, the Blue Jays have the offense everyone else wants to have.

They leveraged Guerrero’s presence to give them the identity they sought, and they acquired and molded players to work in that approach.

“We have always felt that contact would turn into more damage,” Atkins said. “This year, it did.”

Identity. Aesthetics. Success. And now, a pennant. The Toronto Blue Jays nearly won it all, and as we watched Canada fall in love with them, we have to ask: Have the Blue Jays solved the strikeout era?

REALLY, THE EMPHASIS on batting average in this case is more an avatar about Toronto’s style of play than about the ancient baseball statistic. Still, the Blue Jays led the majors in the category, and that was no accident. In fact, before Game 6, Blue Jays manager John Schneider mentioned it after he was asked about comments by Dodgers pitcher Blake Snell, who said the Toronto hitters had gotten lucky on what Snell felt were some pretty good pitches when they beat the lefty in Game 5.

“No, I thought we took good swings early on his fastball,” Schneider said. “And I think we led the league in batting average this year.”

The Blue Jays have constructed a lineup that balances the objective of making consistent contact — even in today’s hyper-strikeout context — remarkably, without losing the ability to hit the ball out of the park and for extra bases.

The Blue Jays aren’t all batting average, and it’s not all about simply making contact. Toronto rated better than the MLB average in home run percentage and isolated power. The Blue Jays were also third in line-drive rate, which helps fuel the average.

During the regular season, the Blue Jays ranked 23rd in the majors in scoring 38.3% of their runs on home runs. That number rose to 48% in the playoffs, but the strikeout rate remained low.

The Blue Jays led the majors with the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) of any team over the past eight seasons — and lowered that number to 17.1% in the postseason, the lowest by a playoff team that played at least three games since the 2014 San Francisco Giants.

The increase in home run percentage in the playoffs paired with the stunning improvement in strikeout rate unsurprisingly led to more scoring. Toronto scored 4.93 runs per game during the season, ranking fourth, but rolled up an average of 5.83 runs during its 18 postseason games, nearly 30% more than any other team.

Not just contact. Not just power. Toronto puts the ball in play, but its approach always had to be more than that if it was going to translate to the high-stakes games.

“We tried to thread the needle a little bit with that going from last year to this year,” Schneider said. “Understanding that our main guys make a lot of contact, we leaned into it a little bit. And I think, at the same time, you don’t want to just be playing pingpong.”

The Blue Jays finished third in OPS during the regular season behind the New York Yankees and Dodgers, but with better batting averages and on-base percentages than both. With runners in scoring position, Toronto led the majors in average (.292) and BABIP (.329). Only the Kansas City Royals struck out less after counts that reached two strikes. Over and over, the Blue Jays showed an ability to adjust and adapt to what was needed and what was thrown.

The Blue Jays aren’t the first successful playoff team to focus on contact — most of the excellent Houston Astros offenses during their run of success over the past decade featured a relatively balanced attack. The champion 2018 Boston Red Sox were another team like that.

But the Blue Jays might be the most impressive version that we’ve seen yet, if only because the difficulties of hitting for average keep increasing with each passing year as more and more strikeout pitchers arrive in the majors.

It’s worth considering the team the Dodgers vanquished one round before Toronto, the Milwaukee Brewers, who ranked third in regular-season batting average (.258) and posted the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.3%). But whereas the Blue Jays gave Los Angeles’ red-hot pitching staff far more trouble than any of the Dodgers’ National League playoff opponents, the Brewers’ hitters were more or less helpless during L.A.’s sweep of the National League Championship Series.

Maybe Milwaukee just ran into the Dodgers’ pitching buzzsaw just as many of its hitters were struggling. Still, it is worth noting that although Milwaukee and Toronto both paired elite averages with elite contact rates, they were in fact very different offenses, one that worked in the playoffs and one that did not.

For one, the Blue Jays were the more veteran team, with an average hitter age more than one season older than the Brewers’. The bigger difference was that the Blue Jays didn’t run all that much, so it was their collective extra-base ability that augmented their high-contact approach, whereas the Brewers went wild on the basepaths. Finally, the Brewers walked more — the Blue Jays weren’t a wild-swinging team but were only about league average in walk percentage.

Even though Milwaukee walked just as often during the playoffs, its lack of collective pop continued and its strikeout rate spiked, leading to a cratering in average and on-base percentage. With no one getting on base, the Brewers weren’t able to get their running game going, especially against the Dodgers.

The level of pitching that playoff teams have to navigate is brutal. Teams have condensed their staffs to their nastiest hurlers. The built-in travel days give the best of those hurlers more game-free rest days. Over the past decade, during baseball’s era of strikeout hyperinflation, teams have struck out 22.4% of the time during the regular season. At playoff time, that number jumps to 24.8%, even though the best offenses are generally still playing.

The Blue Jays turned that around. When a team can navigate the postseason with an offense that somehow gets better during the playoffs, the industry will notice.

IT’S ESPECIALLY NOTABLE because the majority of the position players who appeared during the World Series were with the club last season, and in many cases, have been with the organization for years.

That wasn’t entirely intentional. The Blue Jays wanted to sign Juan Soto, but didn’t. They wanted to sign Shohei Ohtani, but didn’t. Instead, the front office crafted a revamped offensive philosophy under the guidance of a hitting staff led by coach David Popkins, who was hired just more than a year ago.

Popkins, who came to Toronto last October after parting ways with the Minnesota Twins, talked to MLB.com about his philosophy before the season.

“My philosophy is built off of creativity,” Popkins said. “We’re trying to become the most creative lineup at scoring runs in baseball. We do that by practicing all of the different situations and clubs that we’re going to need in the game.”

By “clubs,” Popkins doesn’t mean teams or opponents, but golf clubs. Popkins was talking about an initiative in which, just as in golf, you pick a specific iron or wood or wedge based on the terrain and the distance to the hole, and he would craft a baseball lineup that was adaptable to the game situation and the pitcher on the mound.

This meant that, at the very least, the Blue Jays, under Popkins, were not going with the kind of all-or-nothing approach that has become too prevalent in 2020s baseball. Get a pitch and launch it. It’s an easy philosophy to describe but incredibly complex to implement.

“We say all the time, ‘What club do you take out of your bag?'” Schneider said. “I think last year, we had a lot of guys just hanging out with like a 7-iron the entire time. So, it’s when to use that, when to use a driver. And knowing that they can make contact is kind of a little safety net for them.”

Schneider and his players tout the work of Popkins and his staff. When they were hired last fall, the hitting coaches had no way to know that they were working with a championship-caliber offense because the lineup was not on that level last season.

“[Popkins] gets praise, but he probably doesn’t get enough,” Bo Bichette said. “The energy he brings every day is second to none. I’ve never experienced that from a coach, the passion. When you have that type of passion, you tend to really learn about your craft and learn what it takes. He’s helped all of us for sure.

“We have a ton of talent who — myself in particular — didn’t perform to our capabilities last year. So, that plays a part. But I think we train to be able to do anything in the batter’s box.”

Certainly, there is position regression in these numbers — players bouncing back after down seasons — but consider the following list of leaps in batting average:

Addison Barger, .197 to .243
Bichette, .225 to .311
Ernie Clement, .263 to .277
Alejandro Kirk, .253 to .282
Davis Schneider, .191 to .234
Daulton Varsho .214 to .238

Bichette, who became a free agent after the World Series, might be the litmus test for how eager teams are to follow in Toronto’s footsteps. He’s a career .294 hitter but doesn’t run well, even when healthy, and his declining defensive metrics suggest a need to move down the defensive spectrum. But at the plate, he pairs contact with consistent extra-base ability. If you want a Blue Jays offense, why not sign one of the players most responsible for making it work?

And then there’s 36-year-old George Springer, whose jump from .220 to .309 was the largest year-over-year improvement in batting average among any qualifying hitter this season. Overall, Toronto’s team average went from .241 to .265, even though Anthony Santander (.175) and Andres Gimenez (.210) struggled.

Much has been made about one aspect of the Blue Jays’ improved contact ability and success, and converting that contact into hits. That’s bat speed, which is now tracked by Statcast and can be monitored by teams and fans.

The Blue Jays weren’t elite in average bat speed, but a number of their key hitters showed marked increases over last year — Guerrero, Clement and Barger, just to name a few. Springer was up by nearly 2 mph in his age-35 season.

Yet, all of these players controlled those faster bats, got wood on the ball and did so with authority. The formula seems blindingly obvious. If the pitchers are throwing harder, then the hitters need to swing faster. It’s not remotely that simple in reality, but this is, in effect, what the Blue Jays did.

“I think the whole industry kind of started looking at that last year with more public knowledge of it, public information of it,” Schneider said. “When guys were throwing as hard as they are, you got to combat it somehow, whether it’s with bat speed or mechanics.”

THE BLUE JAYS’ modernized approach to an old-school offense succeeded at a time when many major league teams have put more emphasis on identifying, scouting and developing contact hitting. Toronto is arguably the first team of this era to break through at this level with such an approach.

Because this has already been a trend around baseball, Toronto’s success might be less of a light bulb flashing in the minds of rival executives and more of a validation for what other teams have been trying to do.

“In terms of how baseball goes forward, to me, pitching is so good these days with the stuff and the velo, you have to be able to put the ball in play,” Schneider said. “You have to put pressure on the defense and the pitcher. I like that we can do it in a variety of ways.”

For MLB — the entity — it’s a revelation because the approach didn’t just work, it also was so much fun to watch. And, most importantly, it paid off with a pennant and a thrilling World Series performance that will be long remembered. If you needed any more evidence for that than what existed before this Fall Classic, you just had to feel the Rogers Centre vibrating on the banks of Lake Ontario as the World Series reached its historic crescendo.

They didn’t win it all, but the season was a triumph for the Blue Jays, a triumph for Toronto and a triumph for all of Canada. And if more teams can be like the Blue Jays going forward, it’ll be a triumph for baseball fans, too.