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Americas young voters are fired up about the war in Gazaarent they? Campus protests and the controversies around them have dominated media attention for weeks. So has the possibility that youth anger about the war will cost President Joe Biden the election. Joe Biden Is Losing Young Voters Over Israel, a USA Today headline declared last month. The New York Times columnist Thomas B. Edsall recently argued that nothing would help Biden more with young voters than negotiating a cease-fire in Gaza.

The available evidence, however, overwhelmingly suggests otherwise. For all the attention theyve drawn, the campus protesters are outliers. Biden has a problem with young voters, but it does not appear to be because of Gaza.

This may feel counterintuitive. More than 80 percent of young people disapprove of the way Biden is handling the war, according to a recent CNN surveythe most of any cohort. And poll after poll shows Biden losing support among 20-somethings, the group that helped propel him to victory four years ago. In 2020, Biden won the 18-to-29-year-old vote by 24 percentage points. This time around, some polls suggest that the demographic is a toss-up between him and Donald Trump. If Biden is losing support from young people, and young people overwhelmingly object to his handling of the war in Gaza, a natural conclusion would be that the war is the reason for the lack of support.

Jill Filipovic: Say plainly what the protesters want

But thats a mistake, because theres a big difference between opinions and priorities. People have all kinds of views, sometimes strong ones, on various topics, but only a few issues will determine how they vote. And very few Americanseven young onesrank the Israel-Hamas war as one of their top political priorities.

Obviously for some people it is the most important issue, and we need to respect that, John Della Volpe, who directs polling at Harvards Institute of Politics, told me. But what were seeing on college campuses, based upon this data, is not reflective of what the youth voter in general is thinking about.

In the April 2024 edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, which Della Volpe runs, 18-to-29-year-olds rated the Israel-Palestine conflict 15th out of 16 possible priorities. (Student debt came last.) Among self-identified Democrats, it was tied for third from the bottom. In another survey of registered voters in swing states, just 4 percent of 18-to-27-year-olds said the war was the most important issue affecting their vote. Even on college campuses, the epicenter of the protest movement, an Axios/Generation Lab poll found that only 13 percent of students considered the conflict in the Middle East to be one of their top-three issues. An April CBS poll found that the young voters who wanted Biden to pressure Israel to stop attacking Gaza would vote for him at about the same rate as those who didnt.

In fact, most young people dont seem to be paying much attention to whats going on beyond Americas borders. The 18-to-29-year-old age group is the least likely to say theyre following the war, according to a March survey from the Pew Research Center: 14 percent said they were closely tracking updates, while 58 percent said they werent following news of the conflict at all. If you take a broader view, people who are in their teens and 20s are the least likely group of Americans to pay attention to politics, period, David Barker, a professor of government at American University, told me. Many seem to be unsure how to feel about the war. I think that the natural response for anybody, let alone young people, is just to be like, Okay, whats the price of milk? Barker said.

Granted, if 2016 and 2020 are any guide, the election will likely be so close that any Democratic defections could be said to have determined the results, particularly in the swing states that Biden needs to win. In 2020, young people voted for Biden by a bigger margin than any other age group. This is going to come down to small numbers of votes in six or seven key states, Robert Lieberman, a political-science professor at Johns Hopkins University, told me. Any change, no matter the size, could tip the election one way or the other. A New York Times/Siena College swing-state poll out this week found that 13 percent of people who said they voted for Biden in 2020, but dont plan to in 2024, are basing their decision on the war in the Middle East or on foreign policy. Thats a sliver of a sliver of the population, far fewer than those who cited the economy or inflationbut any sliver could be the decisive one.

David Frum: The plot to wreck the Democratic convention

Even if people dont vote based on the conflict itself, they might vote based on what it represents. The chaos of an international conflict, and the domestic protests it inspires, could contribute to the impression that Biden is not in control.

Still, with the election six months away, some experts predict that young voters will shift back toward Biden as they start paying closer attention to politics. If that doesnt happen, it will likely be for the same reasons that are depressing his standing with other age groupsabove all, the economy. I ultimately expect that Bidens fate will be determined less by something like this conflict in Gaza and more, frankly, by which direction inflation and unemployment go over the course of the next few months, Barker said.

Theres no denying that the Israel-Palestine conflict, along with the related controversies emanating from it, has affected and will continue to affect domestic U.S. politicsand the moral questions posed by the war extend far beyond electoral calculations. But the issue is unlikely to trigger any demographic realignment. When it comes to the issues they care about most, young Americans appear closer to the overall electorate than to the activist groups that claim to represent them.

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Romanian grooming gang boss offered £1,500 to leave UK while awaiting trial for 10 rapes

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Romanian grooming gang boss offered £1,500 to leave UK while awaiting trial for 10 rapes

The ringleader of a Romanian grooming gang was offered £1,500 by the Home Office to be deported while he was in prison awaiting trial for 10 rapes, a Sky News investigation has found.

Mircea Marian Cumpanasoiu, 38, led a network which raped, drugged and exploited vulnerable local women in Dundee.

But Sky News can exclusively reveal that in summer 2024, while in custody at HMP Perth awaiting trial for serial sex offences, officials handed him a “voluntary return” form under a government scheme paying foreign nationals to leave Britain.

The department later decided not to remove him because of the upcoming court proceedings.

Immigration status renewed during trial

In another twist, just months later – as he stood in a High Court dock facing 10 rape charges – Sky News has discovered Cumpanasoiu’s immigration status, which was due to expire, was automatically renewed under the EU settlement scheme.

Cumpanasoiu was later handed a 24-year extended sentence, with 20 years in jail and four on licence, for sexual and trafficking offences.

Cumpanasoiu winking to the camera during a video filmed near a brothel in Dundee. Pic: Crown Office
Image:
Cumpanasoiu winking to the camera during a video filmed near a brothel in Dundee. Pic: Crown Office

Prosecutors described him as a “winking, smirking pimp” who once filmed a victim climbing a tree to escape his anger when she “failed” to make enough money in Dundee brothels.

Following days of questions from Sky News, officials have confirmed his settled status has now been revoked.

The inside story

Sky sources say Home Office workers personally met Cumpanasoiu at Perth prison while he was on remand in August 2024.

Sources say he “expressed a desire to return home” and was handed documents to sign agreeing to a cash-assisted return, but the plan was later blocked.

But in another twist, on 2 December 2024, halfway through the grooming gang trial, his EU settled status was renewed.

A source close to proceedings told Sky News the revelations “smack of incompetence”.

The Home Office does not dispute this version of events.

Romanian grooming gang clockwise from top left: Remus Stan, Alexandra Bugonea, Mircea Marian Cumpanasoiu, Cristian Urlateanu and Catalin Dobre. Pics: Police Scotland
Image:
Romanian grooming gang clockwise from top left: Remus Stan, Alexandra Bugonea, Mircea Marian Cumpanasoiu, Cristian Urlateanu and Catalin Dobre. Pics: Police Scotland

Rape Crisis Scotland said the case raises concerns.

A spokesperson for the charity said: “This was a horrific case, which involved numerous vulnerable survivors who showed tremendous strength and courage by coming forward to seek justice for what had happened to them.

“The severity of this case has, quite rightly, resulted in significant prison sentences for the perpetrators. However, it is not clear why the Home Office tried to intervene before a trial had begun, and any verdict had been reached.

“Survivors must have faith in the criminal justice process and its ability to hold perpetrators accountable for their crimes.

“This incident raises questions about what the Home Office’s intentions were, and why it was able to insert itself into active criminal proceedings in the first place.”

Read more from Sky News:
Swinney ‘open’ to national inquiry into grooming gangs
Why are abuse survivors losing faith in grooming gang inquiry?

What is the EU Settlement Scheme?

The EU Settlement Scheme was set up after Brexit to allow citizens from the EU, and their family members, to continue living and working in the UK.

People with “settled status” can stay in the UK indefinitely.

Those with “pre-settled status”, such as Cumpanasoiu, must reapply after five years.

Since September 2023, the Home Office has introduced automatic extensions of pre-settled status which means renewals happen electronically unless officials intervene.

There are questions now about whether this automation can lead to offenders such as Cumpanasoiu being overlooked.

Home Office ‘had power to intervene’

Jen Ang, a human rights lawyer and leading expert on migrants’ rights, told Sky News the vast majority of those processed under the EU system are law-abiding citizens.

But Ms Ang, a professor at the University of Glasgow, reveals authorities did have the power to intervene in this case.

Professor Jen Ang
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Professor Jen Ang

She said: “In this case the Home Office did have the power and the right to stop the automatic renewal. At any point where it is possible that someone is about to become unsuitable for settled status, the Home Office could have intervened.

“The optics of this in the context of such a high-profile and horrific crime are not great.”

‘The public are entitled to be concerned’

Thomas Leonard Ross KC, a leading Scottish defence lawyer, described the decision-making as “flawed”.

He said: “I mean automatically renewing pre-settled status in 99.9% of occasions can be done without any risk to the public. But clearly this particular individual has been assessed to be an extremely dangerous person.

“The public are perfectly entitled to be concerned. A decision of this type made automatically without any assessment as to the risk that he might pose is clearly a flawed decision.”

A Home Office spokesman said: “This man will serve his sentence for the abhorrent crimes he committed and will be considered for deportation at the earliest opportunity.

“A deportation order will automatically trigger the revocation of an individual’s right to be in the UK, including pre-settled status.”

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Deadline day for Andrew to respond to Epstein inquiry – but it’s hard to imagine why he’d talk

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Deadline day for Andrew to respond to Epstein inquiry - but it's hard to imagine why he'd talk

They’ve said they are offering him an opportunity to tell them everything, once and for all.

But as we hit the two-week deadline set by the US Congress committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein for a reply from Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, will he agree to their request to open up about the paedophile financier?

The letter sent by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform said members wanted to talk to him because of the widely reported allegations that have been made against him, which he denies, and because of his relationship with Epstein and what he may have seen.

The committee is looking into Epstein’s crimes and his wider sex trafficking network. Andrew was given until today, 20 November, to respond.

Legally he isn’t obliged to talk to them, and to be honest it’s hard to imagine why he would.

The only time he has spoken at length about the allegations against him and his relationship with Epstein was that Newsnight interview in 2019, and we all know how much of a disaster that was.

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Releasing the Epstein files: How we got here

Yes, this could be an opportunity for him to publicly apologise for keeping up his links with Epstein, which he has never done before, or show some sympathy towards Epstein’s victims, even as he vehemently denies the allegations against him.

But while there is the moral argument that he should tell the committee everything he knows, it could also raise more uncomfortable questions for him, and that could feel like too much of a risk for Andrew and the wider Royal Family.

However, even saying no won’t draw all this to a close. There are other outstanding loose ends.

The Metropolitan Police still have to tell us if they intend to take any further action after they said they were looking into claims Andrew had asked one of his officers to dig up dirt on his accuser, Virginia Giuffre.

Read more:
King formally strips Andrew of prince title
Bill to release Epstein files gets all-clear from Congress

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The new Epstein files: The key takeaways

There could also still be a debate in parliament about the Andrew problem.

The Liberal Democrats have said they want to use their opposition debating time to bring the issue to the floor of the House of Commons, while other MPs on the Public Accounts Committee have signalled their intention to look into Andrew’s finances and housing arrangements.

And then there are the wider Epstein files over in America, and what information they may hold.

From developments this week, it seems we are edging ever closer to seeing those released.

All of this may mean Andrew in other ways is forced to say more than he wants to, even without opening up to the Congress committee.

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Half of novelists fear AI will replace them entirely, survey finds

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Half of novelists fear AI will replace them entirely, survey finds

The novel has survived the industrial revolution, radio, television, and the internet. Now it’s facing artificial intelligence – and novelists are worried.

Half (51%) fear that they will be replaced by AI entirely, according to a new survey, even though for the most part they don’t use the technology themselves.

More immediately, 85% say they think their future income will be negatively impacted by AI, and 39% claim their finances have already taken a hit.

Tracy Chevalier, the bestselling author of Girl With A Pearl Earring and The Glassmaker, shares that concern.

“I worry that a book industry driven mainly by profit will be tempted to use AI more and more to generate books,” she said in response to the survey.

“If it is cheaper to produce novels using AI (no advance or royalties to pay to authors, quicker production, retainment of copyright), publishers will almost inevitably choose to publish them.

“And if they are priced cheaper than ‘human made’ books, readers are likely to buy them, the way we buy machine-made jumpers rather than the more expensive hand-knitted ones.”

Chevalier, author of the book Girl With A Pearl Earring, with the painting of the same name. Pic: AP
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Chevalier, author of the book Girl With A Pearl Earring, with the painting of the same name. Pic: AP

Why authors are so worried

The University of Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy asked 258 published novelists and 74 industry insiders how AI is viewed and used in the world of British fiction.

Alongside existential fears about the wholesale replacement of the novel, many authors reported a loss of income from AI, which they attributed to “competition from AI-generated books and the loss of jobs which provide supplementary streams of income, such as copywriting”.

Some respondents reported finding “rip-off AI-generated imitations” of their own books, as well books “written under their name which they haven’t produced”.

Last year, the Authors Guild warned that “the growing access to AI is driving a new surge of low-quality sham ‘books’ on Amazon”, which has limited the number of publications per day on its Kindle self-publishing platform to combat the influx of AI-generated books.

The median income for a novelist is currently £7,000 and many make ends meet by doing related work, such as audiobook narration, copywriting or ghost-writing.

Read more: The author embracing AI to help write novels

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Could the AI bubble burst?

These tasks, authors feared, were already being supplanted by AI, although little evidence was provided for this claim, which was not possible to verify independently.

Copyright was also a big concern, with 59% of novelists reporting that they knew their work had been used to train AI models.

Of these, 99% said they did not give permission and 100% said they were not remunerated for this use.

Earlier this year, AI firm Anthropic agreed to pay authors $1.5bn (£1.2bn) to settle a lawsuit which claimed the company stole their work.

The judge in the US court case ruled that Anthropic had downloaded more than seven million digital copies of books it “knew had been pirated” and ordered the firm to pay authors compensation.

However, the judge sided with Anthropic over the question of copyright, saying that the AI model was doing something akin to when a human reads a book to inspire new work, rather than simply copying.

Read more from Sky News:
Scientists sound alarm over ultra-processed foods
‘What is it really like being a British journalist in Moscow?’

Most novelists – 67% – never used it for creative work, although a few said they found it very useful for speeding up drafting or editing.

One case study featured in the report is Lizbeth Crawford, a novelist in multiple genres, including fantasy and romance. She describes working with AI as a writing partner, using it to spot plot holes and trim adjectives.

“Lizbeth used to write about one novel per year, but now she can do three per year, and her target is five,” notes the author of the report, Dr Clementine Collett.

Is there a role for government?

Despite this, the report’s foreword urges the government to slow down the spread of AI by strengthening copyright law to protect authors and other creatives.

The government has proposed making an exception to UK copyright law for “text and data mining”, which might make authors and other copyright holders opt out to stop their work being used to train AI models.

“That approach prioritises access to data for the world’s technology companies at the cost to the UK’s own creative industries,” writes Professor Gina Neff, executive director of the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy.

“It is both bad economics and a betrayal of the very cultural assets of British soft power.”

A government spokesperson said: “Throughout this process we have, and always will, put the interests of the UK’s citizens and businesses first.

“We’ve always been clear on the need to work with both the creative industries and AI sector to drive AI innovation and ensure robust protections for creators.

“We are bringing together both British and global companies, alongside voices beyond the AI and creative sectors, to ensure we can capture the broadest possible range of expert views as we consider next steps.”

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