Which is the NL’s team to beat: the Phillies, Dodgers or Braves?
Nearly two months into the 2024 MLB season, three National League powerhouses are emerging at the top of the standings.
It’s no surprise that those teams are the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies — but Philly having the best record of the three is not what anyone predicted going into the campaign.
Have the Phillies passed the Braves and Dodgers as the NL’s team to beat? And what must each do from here on out to be the best of the group when it matters most? Our MLB experts weigh in.
Which of the NL’s Big Three has impressed you most so far?
Buster Olney: The Phillies have played a relatively easy schedule, but they have dominated — with their starting rotation, bullpen and deep lineup. The Braves’ offense has obviously been a problem, and the Dodgers will need more from the bottom half of their batting order. But Philadelphia is the best all-around team so far. It will be interesting to see how the Phillies fare as their schedule toughens and they begin playing postseason contenders with star-studded rotations. As one of the Braves said to me Saturday: “It feels like we are seeing a lot of aces so far.”
Jeff Passan: The last time Philadelphia played a team that is currently over .500 was March 31. So as fantastic as its MLB-best record is, the nod here goes to the Dodgers, who have scored more runs and allowed fewer than the Phillies. Los Angeles’ offense is wondrous, leading MLB in most categories of consequence, and its pitching is pretty fantastic too, with Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto playing co-aces nicely. And L.A.’s relief pitching as a potential weakness? The Dodgers’ 2.99 bullpen ERA is the best in the NL.
David Schoenfield: Look, if Ranger Suarez keeps putting up numbers from the dead ball era, the Phillies are going to be in contention for best record with that one-two-three punch of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Suarez. The offense has been better than last year, as well. But I’m sticking with the Dodgers thanks to the multiple one-two punches they possess: Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts on offense and Glasnow and Yamamoto in the rotation. Walker Buehler, who just spun six scoreless innings in his third start of the season, and Gavin Stone are nice sidekicks to Glasnow and Yamamoto. The Dodgers’ bullpen ERA is also more than a run lower than that of the Phillies (although, to be fair, the back end of the Philly pen has been fine).
Alden Gonzalez: For as dominant as the Dodgers have looked and as impressive as the Phillies’ start has been, let’s not overlook what the Braves are doing. Spencer Strider, their ace, is out for the year. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley, their three best players, have basically been league-average hitters. And yet the Braves are performing largely as we would have expected. Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale, two question marks in their rotation going into the year, have been really good. And it’s been Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud who have done most of the heavy lifting offensively. The Braves’ offense will be better. A lot better. They have another gear left in them because of it. And that’s scary for the rest of the sport.
What has surprised you most?
Olney: The Braves’ run production has been shockingly mediocre for a team that finished No. 1 overall in runs and home runs last year. They have had some of their regulars impacted by injuries — Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and, more recently, Riley — but there have been some real struggles, as well. Acuna is expanding the strike zone more than ever. And before he got hurt, Riley was going through his usual early-season slog. A good sign is that Olson is finally seeing some of his hard-hit rate translating.
Passan: Atlanta’s tepid offense. The Braves returned the entirety of the team that set offensive records last year, and they’ve been outscored this season by the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels. Most shocking: Of the 166 players qualified for the batting title, Acuna ranks 138th with a .333 slugging percentage. One year after slugging .501 as a team, the Braves are at .406; and if you subtract Ozuna, who has been crucial to keeping the offense afloat, it would be .381.
Schoenfield: Suarez has been absolutely phenomenal, going 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his first nine starts while holding batters to a .171 average. It’s one of the great starts in MLB history. The last pitcher to win at least eight of his first nine starts with an ERA under 1.50 was Jake Arrieta in 2016. Before that, it was Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010. And before that, it was Pedro Martinez in 1997. Suarez is one of just 10 pitchers to pull off the feat since 1920. He is throwing five different pitches at least 10% of the time, with his curveball and changeup both registering whiff rates at about 30%. He isn’t overpowering, but this has been old-school mastery of deception — and it’s been beautiful to watch.
Gonzalez: Let’s not forget what’s truly shocking in all this: Betts is suddenly a shortstop — for arguably the best team in the majors. And it doesn’t look like he’s moving off that position, either. Remember: This is a 31-year-old, six-time Gold Glove right fielder who planned to switch to second base full time heading into 2024 then transitioned to shortstop — the toughest position to play, outside of catcher — in spring training. He has started more than three-quarters of the Dodgers’ games there this season. Has he been great? No. Has he been passable? No doubt. Has he improved? Absolutely. And he has done it while hitting like an MVP.
Which of the three teams has the most glaring need for improvement in the coming months?
Olney: You’d assume that eventually the Braves are going to start to hit; there’s just too much of a track record in Acuna, Riley, Albies and Michael Harris II to believe this collective slump is going to last all year. I think there’s more uncertainty with the bottom half of the Dodgers’ lineup. Is Chris Taylor going to bounce back? It’s unclear. And Gavin Lux, after missing all of last season? It’s hard to say. Will James Outman return to the big leagues and shake off the early problems? Not sure. But one way or another, the Dodgers will find solutions before the trade deadline, either internally or externally.
Passan: The Phillies’ pitching has been spectacular, and their infield, even with Trea Turner on the injured list, is phenomenal. The outfield, however, is entering its seventh week of mediocrity. Brandon Marsh is a solid player, but the Nick Castellanos–Johan Rojas–Cristian Pache trio garnering the majority of outfield at-bats has been downright bad offensively and middling defensively. With no help on the immediate horizon — Gabriel Rincones is still a year away from the majors — addressing the outfield in the trade market is a must for Philadelphia.
Schoenfield: I’d mention the Phillies’ outfield, as well. Rojas was at least supposed to run down everything in center field, but that hasn’t happened, either. The Phillies could slide Marsh back to center field, but utility man Whit Merrifield doesn’t look like an answer for left field, as he just can’t drive the ball at all anymore. Kyle Schwarber back to left? Seems unlikely, as putting Schwarber and Castellanos as regulars in the outfield corners hurts the defense. So, I’m with Jeff: A trade is looking necessary.
Gonzalez: The Nos. 1 to 5 hitters in the Dodgers’ lineup lead the majors with a combined .918 OPS. The Nos. 6 to 9 hitters? A .576 OPS, worse than every team except the lowly Miami Marlins. If Andy Pages continues to hit and Jason Heyward — who recently returned from a month-plus stint on the IL — produces like he did last year, this will mostly be rendered moot. But Pages has drawn four walks in 123 plate appearances, and Heyward had an adjusted OPS of 65 from 2021 to 2022. And the likes of Outman, Taylor and Lux haven’t shown many signs of busting out of their dreadful early-season slumps. If this continues, the Dodgers — more “championship or bust” than they’ve ever been under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman — will certainly need to trade for at least one outfielder. And they might also need a middle infielder.
Which will be the team to beat come October?
Olney: The Phillies. They have arguably the premier ace in Wheeler — maybe the best pitcher on the planet currently, with Gerrit Cole down — and are working with productive regret from their NLCS loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks last year, when their hitters expanded the zone and former closer Craig Kimbrel lost leads. The Dodgers are the more dynamic team, but until we see an upgrade in performance or in the roster, the Phillies have the group best built to win in October.
Passan: For all of the disillusionment over Atlanta’s bats, its pitching has been exceptional. Sale looks like a prime version of himself. Max Fried and Charlie Morton have postseason bona fides. Braves pitchers have the lowest average exit velocity allowed by nearly 1 mph and have allowed 60 fewer hard-hit balls than the second-best team. The offense is bound to right itself, and with that sort of pitching — even without Strider — the Braves have the goods to survive the NL gauntlet.
Schoenfield: I’ll go with the Phillies as well for the same reasons Buster outlined, primarily that Wheeler is the one starter I would trust most in October from these three teams. I want to see top starters such as Sale and Glasnow, with their history of injuries, make it through the season (and Glasnow’s track record in October isn’t good, with a 5.72 ERA in 45⅔ innings). And let’s face it: No team will face more pressure in October than the Dodgers. L.A.’s advantage, though: It won’t be battling for a division title, while the Phillies and Braves may be battling until the very end to avoid that always dangerous wild-card series.
Gonzalez: What the Dodgers clearly didn’t have when they got swept by the D-backs in last year’s NLDS was reliable starting pitching. And though a lot can change between now and October, what they have at the moment is the makings of a dominant staff. Glasnow and Yamamoto have pitched like the type of guys who can carry a team in the postseason. Walker Buehler showed some really encouraging signs in his return from a second Tommy John surgery on Saturday, blanking the Reds for six innings. The electric Bobby Miller should be back soon. Clayton Kershaw, who has a 2.37 ERA over the past two years despite diminishing velocity, will join the rotation at some point in the second half. The Dodgers need to solidify their bullpen and figure out the bottom half of their lineup, but those are assets they can easily acquire before the trade deadline. If they can match the dominant top half of their lineup with a dominant rotation, they’ll be the team to beat.
Which other NL team is the biggest threat to the Phillies, Dodgers and Braves?
Olney: In a short series, the Chicago Cubs, due to their pitching (assuming that they’re healthy) — and October games at Wrigley Field would only foster that production. But it does feel like the rest of the NL is a million miles behind the Big Three right now.
Passan: I really want to say the Pittsburgh Pirates, because Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller comprise one hell of a short-series rotation. But they’re probably a year away. Realistically, the new-look Milwaukee Brewers — buoyed by a bountiful offense — and the Diamondbacks, who have all the talent to make another run, are the likelier candidates to ruin October for one of the Big Three.
Schoenfield: The Cubs are over .500 despite a lot of underperformance (Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Christopher Morel) and injury issues so far. They’ll need Justin Steele to find his 2023 form and probably find a replacement for the struggling Kyle Hendricks, but Shota Imanaga has been beyond fantastic. A playoff rotation of Steele, Imanaga, the emerging Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon could be a group that makes an October run. (A couple of relief arms would help, although even mediocre bullpens can get hot for a month.)
Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres have yet to take off largely because the cold bats of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim won’t let them. Eventually, they’ll get going. And when they do, they have the talent and depth to be the fourth-best team in the NL. Their lineup has some nice length now that Luis Arraez sits atop it. Robert Suarez has proved to be a lockdown closer. A rotation trio of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Dylan Cease is really solid. And the defense remains dynamic. The Padres are imperfect, but we know general manager A.J. Preller will be aggressive enough to plug any holes at the deadline. They’ll be dangerous. Eventually.
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Bradford Doolittle
The initial 2025 MLB All-Star Game rosters are out, the product of the collaborative process between fans, players and the league. How did this annual confab do?
We already know that injuries will prevent some of these selectees from appearing in Atlanta, and replacement choices will be announced in the coming days. By the end of this post-selection period, we’ll wind up with something like 70 to 75 All-Stars for this season.
These first-draft rosters contain 65 players, the odd number stemming from the decision to send Clayton Kershaw to the festivities as a “Legend” pick. First reaction: Baseball’s newest member of the 3,000 strikeout club has earned everything he gets.
Now, on to the nitpicking.
American League
Biggest oversight: Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ lone representative on the initial rosters is outfielder Byron Buxton, a worthy selection. Ryan (8-4, 2.76 ERA) fell into a group of similar performers including Kansas City’s Kris Bubic and the Texas duo of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. Bubic and deGrom made it, which is great, and Bubic in particular is quite a story.
But Ryan and Eovaldi didn’t make it, and both were probably a little more deserving that Seattle’s Bryan Woo, whose superficial numbers (8-4, 2.77) are very close to Ryan’s. But Woo plays in a more friendly pitching park, and the under-the-hood metrics favor Ryan.
The main takeaway: If this is the biggest discrepancy, the process worked well.
Second-biggest oversight: Many-way tie between several hitters
The every-team-gets-a-player rule, along with positional requirements, always knocks out worthy performers from teams with multiple candidates. Thus, a few picks on the position side might have gone differently.
The Rays are playing so well they probably deserve more than one player. Their most deserving pick made it — infielder Jonathan Aranda — along with veteran second baseman Brandon Lowe. Infielders such as J.P. Crawford (Seattle), Isaac Paredes (Houston) and Zach McKinstry (Detroit) had good cases to make it ahead of Lowe, whose power numbers (19 homers, 54 RBIs) swayed the players.
While acknowledging that Gunnar Henderson has had a disappointing season, I still think he deserved to be the Orioles’ default pick instead of Ryan O’Hearn. But the latter was selected as the AL’s starting DH by the fans, and Baltimore doesn’t deserve two players. It’s a great story that O’Hearn will be a first-time All-Star just a couple of weeks before his 32nd birthday.
Other thoughts
• The default White Sox selection is rookie starter Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick from Milwaukee last winter. Smith is my lowest-rated player on the AL squad, but he has been consistently solid. Adrian Houser, an in-season pickup, has been great for Chicago and has arguably produced more value than Smith. But I like honoring the rookie who has been there the whole campaign.
• The Athletics’ Jacob Wilson was elected as a starter and is easily the most deserving player from that squad. I’m not sure I see a second pick there, but Brent Rooker made it as a DH. Rooker has been fine, but his spot could have gone to one of the overlooked hitters already mentioned, or perhaps Kansas City’s Maikel Garcia.
• Houston’s Jeremy Pena is a deserving choice and arguably should be the AL’s starter at shortstop instead of Wilson. Alas, he’s on the injured list, and though reports say he might soon resume baseball activities, it’s likely Pena will be replaced. Any of the above-mentioned overlooked hitters will do.
• As for the starters, the fans do a great job nowadays. I disagreed with them on a couple of spots, though. I would have gone with a keystone combo of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Pena rather than Gleyber Torres and Wilson, but I’d have them all on the team. And I would have definitely started Buxton over Javier Baez in the outfield.
National League
Biggest oversight: Juan Soto, New York Mets
Not sure how this happens, but I’m guessing Soto is a victim of his own standards. Yes, he signed a contract for an unfathomable amount of money, and so far, he hasn’t reinvented the game as a member of the Mets. He has just been lower-end Juan Soto, which is still one of the best players in the sport. His OBP is, as ever, north of .400, he leads the league in walks and it sure seems as if Pete Alonso has very much enjoyed hitting behind him.
The All-Star Game was invented for players like Soto, and though you might leave out someone like him if he is having a truly poor season, that’s not the case here. It is kind of amazing that he didn’t make it, while MacKenzie Gore and James Wood — both part of the trade that sent Soto from Washington to San Diego — did. They deserve it, and you can make a strong argument that a third player the Nats picked up in the trade — CJ Abrams — does as well. But Soto deserves it too.
Finally, the Marlins’ most-deserving pick is outfielder Kyle Stowers, who indeed ended up as their default selection. But he probably ended up with Soto’s slot.
Second-biggest oversight: Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s hard to overlook anyone on the Dodgers, but somehow Pages slipped through the cracks despite his fantastic all-around first half for the defending champs.
It was just a numbers game. I’ve got five NL outfielders rated ahead of Pages, and all but Soto made it, so no additional quibbles there. The fans voted in Ronald Acuna Jr. to start at his home ballpark. Having Acuna there in front of the fans in Atlanta makes sense. But he has played only half of the first half.
Other thoughts
• The shortstop position is loaded in the NL, but the only pure shortstops to make it were starter Francisco Lindor and Elly De La Cruz. Both are good selections, but the Phillies’ Trea Turner has been just as outstanding. Abrams and Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo are also deserving. The position has been so good that the player with the most career value currently playing shortstop in the NL — Mookie Betts — barely merits a mention. Betts has had a subpar half, but who will be surprised if he’s topping this list by the end of the season?
• Both leagues had three pitching staff slots given to relievers. The group in the AL (Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader and Andres Munoz) was much more clear-cut than the one in the NL, which ended up with the Giants’ Randy Rodriguez, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Padres’ Jason Adam. It made sense to honor someone from San Diego’s dominant bullpen, and you could have flipped a coin to pick between Adam and Adrian Morejon.
• Picking these rosters while meeting all the requirements and needs for teams and positions is hard. I don’t have any real issue with the pitchers selected for the NL. One of them is Atlanta’s Chris Sale, who is on the IL and will have to be replaced. My pick would be Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez (7-2, 2.68 ERA).
• And for the starting position players, Alonso should have gotten the nod over Freddie Freeman at first base, though it will be great to see Freeman’s reception when he takes the field in Atlanta. For that matter, the Cubs’ Michael Busch has had a better first half than Freeman at this point, though that became true only in the past few days, thanks to his explosion at Wrigley Field. I would have gone with Turner at short, but it’s close. And I’d have started Wood in place of Acuna.
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Jesse Rogers
The last-place Washington Nationals fired president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez, the team announced Sunday.
Rizzo, 64, and Martinez, 60, won a World Series with the Nationals in 2019, but the team has floundered in recent years. This season, the Nationals are 37-53 and stuck at the bottom of the National League East after getting swept by the Boston Red Sox this weekend at home. Washington hasn’t finished higher than fourth in the division since winning the World Series.
“On behalf of our family and the Washington Nationals organization, I first and foremost want to thank Mike and Davey for their contributions to our franchise and our city,” principal owner Mark Lerner said in a statement. “Our family is eternally grateful for their years of dedication to the organization, including their roles in bringing a World Series trophy to Washington, D.C.
“While we are appreciative of their past successes, the on-field performance has not been where we or our fans expect it to be. This is a pivotal time for our club, and we believe a fresh approach and new energy is the best course of action for our team moving forward.”
Mike DeBartolo, the club’s senior vice president and assistant general manager, was named interim GM on Sunday night. DeBartolo will oversee all aspects of baseball operations, including the MLB draft. An announcement will be made on the interim manager Monday, a day before the club begins a series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Rizzo has been the top decision-maker in Washington since 2013, and Martinez has been on board since 2018. Under Rizzo’s leadership, the team made the postseason four times: in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019. The latter season was Martinez’s lone playoff appearance.
“When our family assumed control of the team, nearly 20 years ago, Mike was the first hire we made,” Lerner said. “Over two decades, he was with us as we went from a fledging team in a new city to World Series champion. Mike helped make us who we are as an organization, and we’re so thankful to him for his hard work and dedication — not just on the field and in the front office, but in the community as well.”
The Nationals are in the midst of a rebuild that has moved slower than expected, though the team didn’t augment its young core much during the winter. Led by All-Stars James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, Washington has the second-youngest group of hitters in MLB and the sixth-youngest pitching staff.
The team lost 11 straight games in a forgettable stretch last month. And during a 2-10 run in June, Washington averaged just 2.5 runs. Since June 1, the Nationals have scored one run or been shut out seven times. In Sunday’s 6-4 loss to Boston, they left 15 runners on base.
There was industry speculation over the winter that the Nationals would spend money on free agents for the first time in several years, but that never materialized. Instead, the team made minor moves, signing free agents Josh Bell and Michael Soroka, trading for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and re-signing closer Kyle Finnegan. Now, the hope is a new management team, both on and off the field, can help change the franchise’s fortunes.
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David Schoenfield
The rosters for the 2025 MLB All-Star Game will feature 19 first-timers — and one legend — as the pitchers and reserves were announced Sunday for the July 15 contest at Truist Park in Atlanta.
Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw, a three-time Cy Young Award winner who made his first All-Star team in 2011, was named to his 11th National League roster as a special commissioner’s selection.
Kershaw, who became only the fourth left-hander to amass 3,000 career strikeouts, is 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA in nine starts after beginning the season on the injured list. He joins Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera as a legend choice, after the pair of sluggers were selected in 2022.
Kershaw said he didn’t want to discuss the selection Sunday.
Among the first-time All-Stars announced Sunday: Dodgers teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto; Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood and left-hander MacKenzie Gore; Houston Astros ace Hunter Brown and shortstop Jeremy Pena; and Chicago Cubs 34-year-old left-hander Matthew Boyd.
“It’ll just be cool being around some of the best players in the game,” Wood said.
First-time All-Stars previously elected to start by the fans include Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson, Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Overall, the 19 first-time All-Stars is a drop from the 32 first-time selections on the initial rosters in 2024.
Kershaw would be the sentimental choice to start for the National League, although Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, who leads NL pitchers in ERA and WAR, might be in line to start his second straight contest. Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler, a three-time All-Star, is 9-3 with a 2.17 ERA after Sunday’s complete-game victory and also would be a strong candidate to start.
“I think it would be stupid to say no to that. It’s a pretty cool opportunity,” Skenes said about the possibility of being asked to start by Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “I didn’t make plans over the All-Star break or anything. So, yeah, I’m super stoked.”
Kershaw has made one All-Star start in his career, in 2022 at Dodger Stadium.
Among standout players not selected were New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto, who signed a $765 million contract as a free agent in the offseason, and Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts, who had made eight consecutive All-Star rosters since 2016.
Soto got off to a slow start but was the National League Player of the Month in June and entered Sunday ranked sixth in the NL in WAR among position players while ranking second in OBP, eighth in OPS and third in runs scored.
The players vote for the reserves at each position and selected Wood, Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres as the backup outfielders. Kyle Stowers also made it as a backup outfielder as the representative for the Miami Marlins.
Unless Soto later is added as an injury replacement, he’ll miss his first All-Star Game since his first full season in 2019.
The Dodgers lead all teams with five representatives: Kershaw, Yamamoto and starters Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith. The AL-leading Detroit Tigers (57-34) and Mariners have four each.
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal will join AL starters Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez, while Raleigh, the AL’s starting catcher, will be joined by Seattle teammates Bryan Woo, Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez.
Earning his fifth career selection but first since 2021 is Texas Rangers righty Jacob deGrom, who is finally healthy after making only nine starts in his first two seasons with the Rangers and is 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA. He has never started an All-Star Game, although Skubal or Brown would be the favorite to start for the AL.
The hometown Braves will have three All-Stars in Acuna, pitcher Chris Sale (his ninth selection, tied with Freeman for the second most behind Kershaw) and first baseman Matt Olson. The San Francisco Giants had three pitchers selected: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and reliever Randy Rodriguez.
The slumping New York Yankees ended up with three All-Stars: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Max Fried. The Mets also earned three All-Star selections: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz.
“Red carpet, that’s my thing,” Chisholm said. “I do have a ‘fit in mind.”
Rosters are expanded from 26 to 32 for the All-Star Game. They include starters elected by fans, 17 players (five starting pitchers, three relievers and a backup for each position) chosen in a player vote and six players (four pitchers and two position players) selected by league officials. Every club must be represented.
Acuna, Wood and Raleigh are the three All-Stars who have so far committed to participating in the Home Run Derby.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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