Stanley Cup playoffs conference finals preview: Goalie confidence, key players, storylines
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
Sixteen NHL teams qualified for the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. But with two rounds complete, the field is down to the final four competitors.
Each team brings a unique set of narratives to the conference finals round — both on and off the ice.
Here’s everything you need to know about the New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers.
How they got here: Defeated Lightning 4-1, Bruins 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
Sergei Bobrovsky has improved throughout the playoffs. That’s excellent news for Florida as it faces perhaps its toughest offensive challenge yet in the high-flying, high-scoring New York Rangers.
The Panthers’ netminder is a solid 8-3 in the postseason, with a .902 save percentage and 2.37 goals-against average. Bobrovsky was fine in the first round but hit a real stride in the second round. The Bruins didn’t test Bobrovsky often, and he had to be sharp when they did; for the most part, he has come through when Florida has needed him.
Bobrovsky’s 22-save performance in Game 6 to close out Boston was some of his finest work, which should have him feeling in tip-top shape ahead of this conference finals bout.
What we’ve learned about the Panthers so far
Florida is impressively multifaceted, and there isn’t one area where the Panthers are truly deficient. They’ve averaged the most goals per game among Eastern Conference playoff teams (3.55), they are stingy defensively (allowing 2.45 goals per game and only 24.1 shots on net) and they have solid special teams (with a 22% power play and 86.1% penalty kill).
Most importantly, though, Florida is balanced. The Panthers’ stars have contributed as expected, with Carter Verhaeghe (six goals and 11 points), Matthew Tkachuk (four goals and 14 points) and Aleksander Barkov (five goals and 13 points) excelling. Florida’s depth skaters have made their mark, from Evan Rodrigues (three goals and six points) to Anton Lundell (two goals and nine points). The Panthers have benefitted from timely scoring from the back end, too — Gustav Forsling netting the game-winner in Game 6 against Boston was especially notable — and Brandon Montour (three goals and eight points) has been superb.
The Panthers have enviable depth and an all-around game on which to lean.
Players who will be key to this series
New York is the Eastern Conference’s second-highest-scoring offense in the postseason (averaging 3.50 goals per game), right behind Florida, so Bobrovsky being at his best is critical for the Panthers. Bobrovsky wasn’t overly taxed by Boston (a difficulty because most goalies prefer a busier workload), and the Rangers project to do the exact opposite by peppering the Panthers’ goalie at 5-on-5 and with their excellent power play.
Matching New York’s potential attack falls on the Panthers’ top-six skaters, but Tkachuk and Sam Bennett should be particularly engaged with their grittiness to get under the Rangers’ skin. Florida doesn’t want to be in a track meet opposite a lineup like New York’s, and setting a tone with some physicality and pressure — while holding the Rangers to the outside and away from those juicy rush chances — is an ideal recipe for Florida to follow. New York isn’t throwing many hits in the postseason (13th overall in that category) so the Panthers can use their feistier forwards to their advantage.
Player who needs to step up
Make no mistake, Sam Reinhart has been solid in the playoffs, with five goals and nine points through 11 games. But this is a series where he can shine. Reinhart had a tremendous regular season, scoring 57 goals and 94 points (including four goals in the regular-season series against New York). He just hasn’t been lighting up the scoresheet as often in the playoffs, with only two goals in six games against Boston (and one four-assist performance).
It just feels like there’s more Reinhart can give, particularly on special teams, where he has just two points. The margins for victory become smaller the deeper a team goes, and Reinhart has the ability to break things open for Florida. The Rangers have been heavily star-driven in the playoffs, and it’s how they’ve arrived in the conference finals. Florida’s depth has been a significant asset, but at this juncture, a true standout like Reinhart can make the series-defining difference.
Can Florida’s power play match New York’s?
The Panthers didn’t have consistent success against Boston’s terrific penalty kill (minus a four-goal outburst with the man advantage in Game 3). Florida was 0-for-7 with the extra man in Games 5 and 6, two contests decided by a single goal. Meanwhile, New York’s power play has been a decisive factor in its success throughout the playoffs, and it has gotten the Rangers through some tightly contested battles.
Florida can’t afford to let many power-play opportunities slip away.That won’t be easy, given the Rangers’ penalty kill is excellent at 89.5%. There’s little doubt Florida has the talent to make more noise on the man advantage, with seven players scoring there so far — it’s just a matter of breaking through New York’s defenses.
If the Panthers can put some doubt in the Rangers on that front early in the series, it would be a confidence-booster. If Florida can’t, there will be nail-biting outcomes in the future.
How they got here: Defeated Capitals 4-0, Hurricanes 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 9.5/10
Igor Shesterkin is arguably New York’s postseason MVP. The Rangers’ netminder has the playoff field’s best record (8-2), a .923 SV% and a 2.40 GAA. At almost no point has New York had to make up for errors on his end.
Shesterkin has been an absolute difference-maker for the Rangers — that brilliant stop on Andrei Svechnikov in the waning minutes of Game 6 of their second-round series against Carolina was a jaw-dropper — and he has been markedly consistent, with a .910 or better SV% in 80% of the Rangers’ postseason games.
It’s no exaggeration to say the Rangers’ hopes of reaching a Stanley Cup Final — and winning it all — hinge heavily on Shesterkin continuing to be the Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender he has been since the first round began.
What we’ve learned about the Rangers so far
The Rangers haven’t strayed much from what made them this season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners. New York boasts an elite power play (at 31.4%) that almost overcompensates for their average 5-on-5 scoring (they have just 20 even-strength goals through 10 postseason games).
New York’s overall success has come through its top talents, from Shesterkin’s goaltending to elite performances from Mika Zibanejad (three goals and 14 points), Vincent Trocheck (six goals and 14 points) and Chris Kreider (seven goals and 10 points). The Rangers haven’t relied on their depth to make a difference, and while that hasn’t hurt them (much) to date, it is something they could look to improve on against Florida.
Defensively, New York doesn’t make it easy on Shesterkin — the Rangers allow 32.5 shots on net per game — but they shouldn’t take their goaltending for granted. The Panthers can quickly make them pay for any sloppiness.
Players who will be key to this series
Shesterkin is essential to New York’s hopes of getting past Florida. Yes, the Panthers have also leaned on their goaltending at times, but Shesterkin is an intimidating presence in the crease and provides the confidence New York needs to play the back-and-forth style that leads to those open scoring opportunities (but also makes the Rangers vulnerable defensively).
Beyond Shesterkin, this is a series where Trocheck can continue to have a major impact. He has been the Rangers’ most productive skater on the power play (with eight points), and they will continue to rely on that potent man-advantage unit to carry them through another round. Trocheck has also been one of New York’s stronger contributors at 5-on-5; helping bolster the Rangers there will be critical, especially when the series inevitably gets tighter.
Player who needs to step up
Artemi Panarin cooled off in the second round after a dominant start to the postseason. There’s no time like the present for Panarin to turn those jets back on (so to speak).
Panarin has zero goals and two assists in New York’s past three games, but he also leads the Rangers overall in playoff game-winners (four). His 11 total points show he is more than capable of avenging his past postseason demons (just two assists in seven games last year) by keeping his incredible regular-season showing (49 goals and 120 points) at the forefront of this playoff push.
While the second round saw Panarin in a lull of sorts, he can make up for lost time in this series. Florida’s lineup is packed with scoring potential, and New York’s ability to match it will determine who advances. Panarin should be ready to answer that bell.
Can New York’s defense hold up — and lock down?
Fun fact: Carolina outshot the Rangers in all six of their second-round games. Washington outshot New York in two of their four first-round games. Despite a solid group of blueliners, New York has been channeling some “fake it till you make it” energy on the back end (and Shesterkin playing lights-out is a big reason that hasn’t ruined the Rangers’ playoff run).
Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren have faced New York’s hardest postseason matchups while being outshot 72-53 but not outscored (the Rangers have a goal edge of 4-3) at even strength. But that’s a delicate tightrope to walk; New York could be one bad game from Shesterkin away from losing their handle on a series.
Improving defensively falls not only on the Rangers’ blueliners but their forwards as well. Run-and-gun might suffice in the regular season, and having a potent power play is great. Full-team buy-in is better, and that’s the question mark for New York heading into the conference finals. Can the Rangers do the little things well enough that the big ones fall more easily into place?
How they got here: Defeated Golden Knights 4-3, Avalanche 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 10/10
Jake Oettinger has done more than just help the Stars reach the conference finals. He’s presenting one of the stronger Conn Smythe cases this postseason.
Back in the 2022 playoffs, the Stars were ousted in the first round, but Oettinger was arguably the biggest reason they pushed the series to seven games. His performances created the belief that if the Stars could somehow bolster their roster, they might be able to pose a serious problem. That time has arrived, and Oettinger has played a significant role.
What we’ve learned about the Stars so far
They might be the most adaptable team in this year’s playoffs. Face the defending Stanley Cup champs in the first round? Spot them a 2-0 series lead, playing into a narrative in which Dallas had lost nine of 11 meetings? No problem. Advance to the second round and build a three-goal lead in Game 1, only to give up four unanswered in overtime? Yeah, the Stars found a way to overcome that too.
The Stars have faced the two most recent Cup champions — whose rosters featured All-Stars such as Jack Eichel, Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Alex Pietrangelo — and still won. Now they’re going against Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. If they need to take on some of the NHL’s best players to prove they are the NHL’s best team, so be it.
Player who will be key to this series
Miro Heiskanen is averaging more than 28 minutes per game, with some of his performances going longer than the run time of a sitcom. He leads his team in points. He’s at the controls of a power play that is scoring nearly 30% of the time. The years of trust he has gained allow him to be matched up against some of the NHL’s best players on a nightly basis. And he is only 24.
Ever since Heiskanen debuted in the 2018-19 season, the discussion centered on how high his ceiling would be if he ever found a level of offensive consistency that could come anywhere close to matching what he does on the defensive end. What he did in the 2022-23 season provided a glimpse. What he has done during the 2024 playoffs could land the Stars a Stanley Cup.
Player who needs to step up
Joe Pavelski ranks 37th in career playoff points, and he has 74 goals in 195 postseason contests. That’s what makes the fact that he has one goal and three points in 13 games this year so jarring.
Pavelski plays the sort of game that’s built to succeed, in that he relies on his intelligence and positioning to either get goals or be in a place that allows his teammates to get goals. His defensive contributions have played a part in why he’s averaging more than 18 minutes per game. But if Pavelski can start generating more on the scoresheet, it would make an already deep Stars attack even deeper.
Will it be five the hard way or the joy of six for the Stars on the back end?
The success of their five-player defensive structure — coupled with Oettinger being in goal — has allowed goal prevention to be a key facet of the Stars’ success. But as they get further along, can they continue to largely play five defensemen instead of six?
Prior to Game 6 against the Avalanche, the Stars relied heavily on Thomas Harley, Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, Chris Tanev and Heiskanen, while Nils Lundkvist averaged 4:27 in ice time in 12 games. The Stars turned to veteran Alex Petrovic, who logged more than 16 minutes in their double-overtime win. Even if part of Petrovic’s workload increased because of overtime, it’s still more ice time than what Lundkvist has received at any point in these playoffs. The last time Lundkvist received more than 16 minutes in a single game came back in January.
The Oilers will certainly make the Stars work on defense. Dallas’ blue-line rotation will be a critical strategic point to watch as the series gets rolling.
How they got here: Defeated Kings 4-1, Canucks 4-3
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
For every setback, there has been a comeback. That has been the narrative surrounding Stuart Skinner throughout his professional career. It also describes how he managed to come back from being pulled in Game 3 of the Oilers’ second-round series and benched in Games 4 and 5 before returning to help the Oilers close out the series.
What Skinner provided in those final two games was a goaltender who stopped shots within an Oilers defensive framework that takes away scoring chances and high-danger shots, whether it’s in 5-on-5 sequences or in short-handed situations. If the Oilers can get that version of Skinner against the Stars, it could see them take the next step toward reaching their ultimate destination.
What we’ve learned about the Oilers so far
Goal prevention is just as much a priority for the Oilers as goal creation. One of the looming questions facing the Oilers over the past few years was whether they could find consistency within their defensive structure. It’s a question they have continually answered since they moved on from Jay Woodcroft and hired Kris Knoblauch as head coach, which led to the addition of Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey to the Oilers’ coaching staff. The arrival of Knoblauch and Coffey has since turned the Oilers into a team that can both create and solve problems in either end of the ice.
Maybe the strongest example of that progress has come during the playoffs. In the first round, the Kings went from scoring nine goals in the first two games to scoring a total of four goals over the next three. The same applies to the Canucks, who went from scoring 11 goals in the first three games to eight goals for the final four games of the series.
Player who will be key to this series
There are several reasons to highlight Leon Draisaitl when it comes to why this could be the Oilers’ year to win the Cup. One of them came in the final minutes of Game 7, when Draisaitl was one of the Oilers’ most active players on the defensive end. His investment into being aggressive on the forecheck played a part in Canucks’ struggles to get settled in an attempt to find a game-tying goal. Draisaitl’s stick was constantly moving to disrupt passes or provide some sort of additional obstacle.
So much can be said about his defensive abilities before getting to the fact that he’s one of the game’s most dangerous players on the offensive end — he leads all playoff scorers, with 24 points in 12 games — reinforcing why he might be the most important Oiler, if not the most important player in this series.
Player who needs to step up
Dylan Holloway has used the past few games to show that he is making an impact. He started Game 7 on the second line and has recorded a goal and two points over his past two games.
Receiving those sorts of contributions from Holloway is key for a couple reasons. It stems from the expectation of being a first-round pick in an organization that has found success with others taken in the opening round. The Oilers must also find ways to get as much secondary and tertiary offense as possible. In a big series (and potentially a Stanley Cup Final), Holloway can take positive career strides as the Oilers make a push to stay among the top Cup contenders.
What happens if Connor McDavid starts consistently scoring again?
It’s not like McDavid hasn’t been busy. He has created goals for others while anchoring the Oilers’ top line and also driving a power-play unit that at one point was converting at a rate of 50% this postseason. This is what makes McDavid a perpetual threat who requires everyone’s attention.
But the fact that he’s scored only two goals through 12 postseason games raises two questions: What does it say that the Oilers can get this far without needing McDavid to score in bunches? And how terrifying could the Oilers be if McDavid starts consistently scoring again and continues to create for those around him?
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David Schoenfield
We’re past due to hand out some midseason grades, so let’s hand out some midseason grades.
As we pass the 90-game mark in the 2025 MLB season, my team of the first half isn’t the well-rounded Detroit Tigers, who do get our highest grade for owning MLB’s best record, or the explosive Chicago Cubs or Shohei Ohtani‘s Los Angeles Dodgers, but a team most baseball fans love to hate: the Houston Astros. They lost their two best players from last season and their best hitter has been injured — and they’re playing their best baseball since they won the 2022 World Series.
Let’s get to the grades. As always, we’re grading off preseason expectations, factoring in win-loss record and quality of performance, while looking at other positive performances and injuries.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Tarik Skubal is obviously the headline act, but the Tigers are winning with impressive depth across the entire roster.
Javier Baez is putting together a remarkable comeback season after a couple of abysmal years and will become the first player to start an All-Star Game at both shortstop and the outfield. Former No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson have put together their own comeback stories, while Riley Greene has matured into one of the game’s top power hitters.
Given their deep well of prospects and contributors at the MLB level, no team is better positioned than the Tigers to add significant help at the trade deadline.
I heard someone refer to them as the Zombie Astros, which feels apropos. Alex Bregman left as a free agent, they traded Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez has been injured and has just three home runs, and the Jose Altuve experiment in left field predictably fizzled.
But here they are, fighting for the best record in the majors and holding a comfortable lead in the AL West. They’re getting star turns from Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena, while the risky decision to start Cam Smith in the majors with very little minor league experience has paid off, as he has now become their cleanup hitter.
If we ignore the COVID-19 season, the Astros look on their way to an eighth straight division title.
This could be at least a half-grade higher based on everything that has gone right: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s attention-grabbing breakout, Tucker doing everything expected after the big trade, Seiya Suzuki‘s monster power numbers and Matthew Boyd‘s All-Star turn in the rotation. The Cubs are on pace for their most wins since their World Series title season in 2016.
There have been a few hiccups, however, especially in the rotation with Justin Steele‘s season-ending injury and Ben Brown‘s inconsistency, plus rookie third baseman Matt Shaw has scuffled, and the bench has been weak aside from their backup catchers.
Still, this is a powerhouse lineup, and the Cubs will seek to improve their rotation at the deadline.
They just keep winning of late, going from 25-27 and seven games behind the Yankees on May 25 to taking over first place from the slumping Bronx Bombers, a remarkable turnaround over just 36 games. They went 27-9 over a 36-game stretch ending with their eighth win in a row on Sunday.
George Springer‘s recent surge has been fun to watch, a reminder of how good he was at his peak, and Addison Barger has been mashing over the past two months.
Some of the stats don’t add up to the Blue Jays being this good — they’ve barely outscored their opponents — but there might be more offense in the tank from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a healthy Anthony Santander, and the bullpen, a soft spot, is the easiest area to upgrade.
Their success is best summed up by the fact that Freddy Peralta is their lone All-Star, but they have a whole bunch of players who have contributed between 1 and 2 WAR.
Brandon Woodruff looked good on Sunday in his first start in nearly two years, so that could be a huge boost for the second half.
I’m curious to see how Jackson Chourio performs as well. While his counting stats — extra-base hits, RBIs — are fine, his triple-slash line remains below last season, especially his OBP. He had a huge second half in 2024 (.310/.363/.552) and if he does that again, the Brewers could find themselves back in the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons.
The Rays started off slow, with a losing record through the end of April, but then went 33-22 in May and June to claw back into the AL East race — as the Rays usually do, last year being the recent exception.
Two key performers have been third baseman Junior Caminero, who has a chance to become just the third 21-year-old to hit 40 home runs, and All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Due to the league wanting the Rays to play more home games early in the season, the July and August slate will be very road-heavy, so we’ll see how the Rays adapt to a difficult two-month stretch, especially since their pitching isn’t quite as deep as it has been in other seasons.
No, they’re not going to be the greatest team of all time. But they might win 100 games — even though Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, their huge offseason acquisitions, have combined for just two wins in 10 starts.
The lineup, of course, has been terrific, with Ohtani leading the NL in several categories and Will Smith leading the batting race. By wRC+, it’s been the best offense in Dodgers history.
If they can get some combo of Snell, Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow healthy, plus Ohtani eventually ramped up to a bigger workload on the mound, the Dodgers still loom as World Series favorites.
They are on pace for 95 wins, mainly on the strength of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, who are a combined 23-7 with 11.8 WAR. Jesus Luzardo‘s ERA is bloated due to that two-start stretch when he allowed 20 runs, but he’s otherwise been solid as well.
But, overall, it hasn’t always been the smoothest of treks. The bullpen has imploded a few times and the offense has lacked power aside from Kyle Schwarber. Bryce Harper is back after missing three weeks, and they need to get his bat going. Look for some bullpen additions at the trade deadline — and perhaps an outfielder as well.
The Cardinals have been a minor surprise — perhaps even to the Cardinals themselves. St. Louis was viewing this as a rebuilding year of sorts — not that the Cardinals ever hit rock bottom and start completely over. They had a hot May, winning 12 of 13 at one point, but the offense has been fading of late, with those three straight shutout losses to Pittsburgh and six shutout losses since June 25.
The starting rotation doesn’t generate a lot of swing and miss with both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas seeing their ERAs starting to climb. Brendan Donovan is the team’s only All-Star rep, and that kind of sums up this team: solid but without any star power. That might foretell a second-half fade.
All-Star starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, plus a dominant bullpen, have led the way, although after starting 12-4, the Giants have basically been a .500 team for close to three months now. Rafael Devers hasn’t yet ignited the offense since coming over from Boston, and the Giants have lost four 1-0 games.
These final three games at home against the Dodgers before the All-Star break will be a crucial series, as Los Angeles has slowly pulled away in the NL West.
This was an “A+” through June 12, when the Mets were 45-24 and owned the best record in baseball, even though Juan Soto hadn’t gotten hot. Soto finally got going in June, but the pitching collapsed, and the Mets went through a disastrous 1-10 stretch.
The rotation injuries have piled up, exacerbating the lack of bullpen depth. Recent games have been started by Justin Hagenman (who had a 6.21 ERA in Triple-A), journeyman reliever Chris Devenski, Paul Blackburn (7.71 ERA) and Frankie Montas, who has had to start even though he’s clearly not throwing the ball well. The Mets need to get the rotation healthy, but also could use more offense from Mark Vientos and their catchers (Francisco Alvarez was demoted to Triple-A).
At times it has felt like Cal Raleigh has been a one-man team with his record-breaking first half. But he will be joined on the All-Star squad by starting pitcher Bryan Woo, closer Andres Munoz and center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who made it on the strength of his defense, as his offense has been a disappointment.
The offense has been one of the best in the majors on the road, but the rotation has been nowhere near as effective as the past couple of seasons, with George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missing time with injuries. They just shut out the Pirates three games in a row, so maybe that will get the rotation on a roll.
They’re just out of the wild-card picture while hanging around .500, so we give them a decent grade since that exceeds preseason expectations. It feels like a little bit of a mirage given their run differential — their record in one-run games (good) versus their record in blowout games (not good) — and various holes across the lineup and pitching staff.
But they’ve done two things to keep them in the race. One, they hit a lot of home runs. Two, they’re the only team in the majors to use just five starting pitchers. The rotation hasn’t been stellar, but it’s been stable.
The Padres are probably fortunate to be where they are, given some of their issues. As expected, the offensive depth has been a problem.
Not as expected, Dylan Cease has struggled while Michael King‘s injury after a strong start has left them without last year’s dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation (although Nick Pivetta has been one of the best signings of the offseason). Yu Darvish just made his season debut on Monday, so hopefully he’ll provide a lift.
The Padres haven’t played well against the better teams, including a 2-5 record against the Dodgers, but did clean up against the Athletics, Rockies and Pirates, going 16-2 against those three teams.
For now, the Reds are stuck in neutral. Leave out 2022, when they lost 100 games, and it’s otherwise been a string of .500-ish seasons: 31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021, 82-80 in 2023, 77-85 in 2024 and now a similar record so far in 2025.
The hope was that Terry Francona would be a difference-maker. Maybe that will play out down the stretch, but the best hope is to get the rotation clicking on all cylinders at the same time. That means Andrew Abbott continuing his breakout performance, plus getting Hunter Greene healthy again and rookie Chase Burns to live up to the hype after a couple of shaky outings following an impressive MLB debut.
Throw in Nick Lodolo and solid Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, and this group can be good enough to pitch the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance since 2013.
The Yankees have hit their annual midseason swoon — which has been subject to much intense analysis from disgruntled Yankees fans — and that opening weekend sweep of the Brewers, when the Yankees’ torpedo bats were the big story in baseball, now seems long ago.
Going from seven up to three back in such a short time is a disaster — but not disastrous. Nonetheless, the Yankees will have to do some hardcore self-evaluation heading to the trade deadline.
The offense wasn’t going to be as good as it was in April, when Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham and Ben Rice were all over the heads. So, do they need a hitter? Or with Clarke Schmidt now likely joining Gerrit Cole as a Tommy John casualty, do they need a starting pitcher? Or both?
From the book of “things we didn’t expect,” page 547: The Marlins are averaging more runs per game than the Orioles, Padres, Braves and Rangers, to name a few teams. They’re averaging almost as many runs per game as the Mets, and last time we checked, the Marlins weren’t the team to give Soto $765 million.
An eight-game winning streak at the end of June has the Marlins going toe-to-toe with the Braves for third place in the NL East even though the starting rotation has been a mess, with Sandy Alcantara on track to become just the fourth qualified pitcher with an ERA over 7.00.
Heading into the season, I thought that if any team was going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, it would be the Diamondbacks. The offense has once again been one of the best in the majors, but the pitching issues have been painful.
After the aggressive move to sign Corbin Burnes, he went down with Tommy John surgery after 11 starts. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt each have an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00. Rodriguez was better in June before a shellacking on July 4, while Gallen remains homer-prone, so it’s hard to tell if improvement is on the horizon. Their playoff odds are hovering just under 20%, so there’s a chance, but they need to get red-hot like they did last July and August.
It feels like it’s been more soap opera than baseball season in Boston, with the Devers drama finally ending with the shocking trade with the Giants.
If you give added weight that this is the Red Sox, a team that should be operating with the big boys in both budget and aspirations and instead seemed to only want to dump Devers’ contract, then feel free to lower this grade a couple notches, even if the Red Sox are close in the wild-card standings.
On the field, the heralded rookie trio of Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer hasn’t exactly clicked, with Campbell returning to the minors after posting a .902 OPS in April. A big test will come out of the All-Star break, when they play the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Twins and Astros in a tough 15-game stretch.
After last season’s surprise playoff appearance, it’s been a frustrating 2025 — although I’m not sure this result is necessarily a surprise.
There were concerns about the offense heading into the season and those concerns have proven correct. They were getting no production from their outfield, so they rushed Jac Caglianone to the majors to much hype, but he has struggled and might need a reset back in Triple-A. Even Bobby Witt Jr., as good as he has been (on pace for 7.5 WAR), has seen his OPS drop 140 points.
On the bright side, Kris Bubic emerged as an All-Star starter and Noah Cameron has filled in nicely for the injured Cole Ragans, so maybe they trade a starter for some offense.
Coming off a catastrophic 2024 season, nobody was expecting anything from the White Sox. Indeed, another 121-loss season loomed as a possibility. While they’re on pace to lose 100 again, they’ve at least played more competitive baseball thanks to their pitching.
Rookie starters Shane Smith and Sean Burke have shown promise, while rookie position players Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and now Colson Montgomery are getting their initial taste of the majors.
There has been the mix of calamity: Luis Robert Jr. has been unproductive and is probably now untradeable, and former No. 3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn hit .189 and was traded to the Brewers.
The Twins are one organization that might like a do-over of the past five seasons. It feels like they’ve had the most talent in the division, but all they’ve done is squeeze out one soft division title in 2023. Now, the Tigers have passed them in talent and other factors, such as payroll flexibility.
There’s still time for the Twins to turn things around in 2025, but outside of that wonderful 13-game winning streak, they haven’t played winning baseball.
Overall, it’s been yet another bad season, despite Paul Skenes‘ brilliance. Really, do we talk enough about him? Yes, we do talk about him, but he has a 1.95 ERA through his first 42 career starts. Incredible.
Here’s an amazing thing about baseball. The Pirates are not a good team, but they recently put together one of the best six-game stretches in history. That’s not stretching the description. First, they swept the Mets — a good team — by scores of 9-1, 9-2 and 12-1. Then they swept the Cardinals — a good team — with three shutouts, 7-0, 1-0 and 5-0. They became the first team since at least 1901 to score 43 runs or more and allow four runs or fewer in a six-game stretch. And then they promptly got shut out three games in a row, making them the first to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight shutouts.
Eighteen of our 28 voters picked them to win the AL West before the season, but it’s looking more and more like the 2023 World Series might be a stone-cold fluke in the middle of a string of losing seasons. That year, nearly everyone in the lineup had a career year at the plate, and the pitching got hot at the right time.
This year’s Rangers, though, have struggled to score runs, and while some have pointed to the offensive environment at Globe Life Field, they’re near the bottom in road OPS as well. It’s been fun seeing Jacob deGrom back at a dominating level, and Nathan Eovaldi should have been an All-Star.
Put it this way: If the Rangers can somehow squeeze into the postseason, you don’t want to face the Rangers in a short series. Indeed, if any team looms as an October upset special, it might be the Rangers.
The Nationals received superlative first-half performances from James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, while CJ Abrams is on the way to his best season. But there remains a lack of overall organizational progress, which finally led to the firings on Sunday of longtime GM Mike Rizzo and longtime manager Dave Martinez. A 7-19 record in June sealed their fate, as the rotation has been bad and the bullpen arguably the worst in baseball.
Until the Nationals figure out how to improve their pitching — or, better yet, find an owner who wants to win — they will be stuck going nowhere.
That fell apart in a hurry. Sunday’s loss was Cleveland’s 10th in a row, a stretch that remarkably included five shutouts. Indeed, the Guardians have now been shut out 11 times; the franchise record in the post-dead-ball-era (since 1920) is 20 shutouts in 1968.
There’s nothing worse than watching a team that can’t score runs, so that tells you how exciting the Guardians have been. Last year, the Guardians hit exceptionally well with runners in scoring position, keeping afloat what was otherwise a mediocre offense. That hasn’t happened in 2025 (trading Josh Naylor didn’t help either). Throw in some predictable regression from the bullpen, and this season looks lost.
We can’t give this a complete failing grade due to the emergence of All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson (the Athletics’ first All-Star starter since Josh Donaldson in 2014) and slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who have a chance to finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting. Plus, we have Denzel Clarke‘s circus catches in center field.
But otherwise? Ugh. The Sacramento gamble already looks like a disaster, three months into a three-year stay. The team is drawing well below Sutter Health Park’s 14,000-seat capacity, with many recent games drawing under 10,000 fans. Luis Severino bashed the small crowds and the lack of air-conditioning.
The A’s had a groundbreaking ceremony for their new park in Vegas, renting heavy construction equipment as background props. Maybe they should have spent that money on more pitching help.
Based on preseason expectations, the Braves have clearly been the biggest disappointment in the National League — fighting the Orioles for most disappointing overall.
What’s gone wrong? They haven’t scored runs, as the offense continues its remarkable fade from a record-setting performance just two seasons ago. The collapses of Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies lead the way, with lack of production at shortstop and left field playing a big role as well. Closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled, and the team is 11-22 in one-run games. Spencer Strider hasn’t yet reached his pre-injury level and Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before going down.
The Braves haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017, but that run is clearly in jeopardy.
The Orioles have a similar record to the Braves but have played much worse, including losses of 24-2, 19-5, 15-3 and two separate 9-0 shutouts.
They will spend the trade deadline dealing away as many of their impending free agents as possible, and then do a lot of soul-searching heading into the offseason. After making the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, will this season just be a blip? While the pitching struggles aren’t necessarily a big surprise, what has happened to the offense? Are some of their young players prospects or suspects?
After two months of Cleveland Spiders-level baseball, it would be easy to make fun of the Rockies. Especially since they recently announced Walker Monfort — son of the owner — was promoted to executive VP and will replace outgoing president and COO Greg Feasel.
On the other hand, the Rockies are doing something right: They just drew 121,000 for a three-game series against the White Sox.
While optimism runs high at most every college football program this time of year, even the rosiest picture has some lurking shadows.
That is true even for the 25 teams in our post-spring Power Rankings. No matter how deep the rosters seem, everyone has some question marks or potential weak spots.
Our college football reporters take a look at the biggest areas of concern for each of the top teams, the potential Achilles’ heel that could keep them from reaching their goals for the season.
Area of concern: Wide receiver
The Nittany Lions addressed the wide receiver spot in the portal with Syracuse’s Trebor Pena and others, but until they actually elevate their production, questions will linger. Penn State has had only one wide receiver rank among the top 10 in the Big Ten in receiving in the past three seasons (Tyler Warren played tight end). Both Warren and top receiver Harrison Wallace III are gone, and Penn State needs its portal haul — Pena, a second-team All-ACC wideout in 2024, as well as Devonte Ross (Troy) and Kyron Hudson (USC) — to give quarterback Drew Allar enough capable targets this fall. Although Allar’s big-game struggles are also concerning, he hasn’t had a great group of receivers at his disposal during his Penn State career. — Adam Rittenberg
Area of concern: Running back
The position group that has been discussed more than any other since the spring at Clemson is running back — the only position on offense that loses the bulk of its production with Phil Mafah off to the NFL. But the Tigers have plenty of depth at running back, and that should help ease any concerns as they move into fall camp. Particularly because running back traditionally has been an area where Clemson has excelled, even when other groups on offense took a step back. (Clemson has had a 1,000-yard rusher 11 of the past 16 years, and that does not include 2023, when Mafah and Will Shipley split the carries nearly evenly and combined for more than 1,700 yards.) It is easy to see true freshman Gideon Davidson as a breakout player, considering the success Clemson has had with true freshman backs since Dabo Swinney arrived. Clemson also has receiver Adam Randall taking reps at running back to help round out the depth in a room that also features Keith Adams Jr. and David Eziomume. Jay Haynes continues to rehab a knee injury. — Andrea Adelson
Area of concern: Offensive line
The Longhorns lost four starters on the O-line to the NFL draft and are breaking in a new quarterback, although Arch Manning made two starts last season, as well as several key receivers with the losses of Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond and tight end Gunnar Helm. They lost tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., the 2025 No. 9 draft pick, but Trevor Goosby got some key playing time last year at the position when Banks was injured. The Longhorns also lost 56-game starter Jake Majors at center and face Ohio State in Week 1, posing a quick learning curve for an almost completely new offensive line group. — Dave Wilson
Area of concern: Pass rush
The Bulldogs lost six veteran contributors on their front seven on defense, none more important than edge rushers Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams and Chaz Chambliss. Walker and Williams were first-round picks in the NFL draft, and Chambliss was an unheralded contributor over four seasons. They combined for 18 sacks and 28.5 tackles for loss in 2024. Making matters worse, Damon Wilson, a projected replacement on the edge, transferred to Missouri. Georgia feels good about Gabe Harris Jr., and it added Army transfer Elo Modozie, who had 6.5 sacks for the Black Knights last season. — Mark Schlabach
Area of concern: Quarterback
Quarterback Will Howard was everything the Buckeyes could have hoped for last year in his lone season at Ohio State. He was spectacular during the College Football Playoff, posting a QBR of 97.2 over four games during the Buckeyes’ march to the national championship. With Howard now in the NFL, the Buckeyes will be turning to either former five-star freshman Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz this season, pending who wins the job during camp. Throwing to all-world wideout Jeremiah Smith will bolster whomever the starting quarterback winds up being. But even with Smith and All-American safety Caleb Downs anchoring each side of the ball, it’s difficult envisioning the Buckeyes truly contending again unless Ohio State gets good-to-great quarterback play like it did last season. — Jake Trotter
Area of concern: Offensive line
I don’t know that LSU has to necessarily worry about the offensive line because of moves made this offseason, but it has to be something to keep an eye on just because of the magnitude of the losses. The Tigers had one of the best tackle duos in all of college football last season in Will Campbell and Emery Jones, who were first- and third-round NFL draft picks. They lost four starters across the line in total. DJ Chester and Tyree Adams are back in different spots, while Brian Kelly added Braelin Moore from Virginia Tech. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Area of concern: Tight end
Since 2011, the Fighting Irish have had a whopping 10 tight ends selected in the NFL draft, including last season’s leading receiver, Mitchell Evans, who had 43 catches for 421 yards with three touchdowns. While the Irish feel they’ve upgraded their wide receiver group with the additions of Virginia transfer Malachi Fields and Wisconsin’s Will Pauling, tight end remains a bit of a question mark heading into preseason camp. Senior Eli Raridon has the size (6-foot-7) and hands to excel at the position, but he was plagued by injuries during his first couple of college seasons, after tearing an ACL as a freshman. He had 11 catches for 90 yards with two touchdowns in 2024. The status of another tight end, Cooper Flanagan, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the Sugar Bowl, is in question. — Mark Schlabach
Area of concern: Defensive line
It’s hard to say whether this is an area of concern just yet, but there are question marks with Oregon’s defensive line as the Ducks lost both Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch from last year (as well as Jamaree Caldwell). Defensive end is a strength with Matayo Uiagalelei holding down the edge, but the rest of the line will require some newcomers to step up, such as USC transfer Bear Alexander and rising lineman Aydin Breland, who could be in line for a breakout season. A’mauri Washington, one of the few returning players, will likely be a fixture of the new-look line as well. — Paolo Uggetti
Area of concern: Pass rush
Alabama finished 13th in the SEC last season in quarterback sacks, and while sacks aren’t the end-all when it comes to rushing the passer, the Crimson Tide need to be more consistent in getting to the opposing quarterback. There’s not a pure edge pass rusher in the mold of Will Anderson Jr. or Dallas Turner on this roster, meaning Alabama will need to get more pressure from its interior linemen and perhaps a breakout season from redshirt sophomore outside linebacker Qua Russaw. — Chris Low
Area of concern: Quarterback
When the season ended, quarterback figured to be an obvious strength for BYU considering Jake Retzlaff was set to return. But with him expected to transfer as of late June, the Cougars are left without an established starter. McCae Hillstead showed flashes at Utah State in 2023, Treyson Bourguet started eight games in two years for Western Michigan and true freshman Bear Bachmeier was a big-time recruit who enrolled briefly at Stanford earlier this offseason before leaving for Provo. The expectation is that all three will have a chance to earn the starting job in fall camp, without a clear-cut front-runner. — Kyle Bonagura
Area of concern: Offensive explosiveness
The Illini had a good and efficient offense in 2024, but they weren’t particularly explosive, tying for 64th nationally in plays of 10 yards or longer and tying for 66th in plays of 20 yards or longer. Although quarterback Luke Altmyer and a veteran offensive line return, Illinois needs to replace its top two receivers in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, who are off to the NFL, and leading rusher Josh McCray, who transferred to Georgia. Offensive coordinator Barry Lunney thinks Collin Dixon, who averaged 14.7 yards per catch in limited work last fall, and incoming freshman Brayden Trimble can spark the offense. “Overall, we’re going to have a little bit more vertical speed in what we’re doing to stretch the defense than what we did,” Lunney told me. “That’s no slight on Zakhari or Pat at all. Those were just kind of bigger, stronger guys.” — Rittenberg
Area of concern: Pass rush
ASU’s late-season surge, from a decent team to one capable of coming within one play of the CFP semifinals, took place primarily thanks to players who are returning in 2025. Obviously losing star running back Cam Skattebo hurts, but the Sun Devils have some of the best overall returning production numbers in the country. We don’t know that they have a pass rush, though. It was an issue last season — ASU ranked just 110th in sacks per dropback — and while both of their sacks leaders (Clayton Smith and Elijah O’Neal) return, that duo combined for just 8.5 sacks between them. Kenny Dillingham evidently thought he had the answers in house, as he didn’t add a single edge rusher in the transfer portal, but while the secondary is sound and experienced, giving QBs too much time to find receivers can bring down even the most seasoned defense. — Bill Connelly
Area of concern: Defensive front
What was perhaps South Carolina’s biggest strength last season could be its biggest concern going into 2025. Gone up front are stalwarts Kyle Kennard, Bam Martin-Scott, Demetrius Knight and TJ Sanders, among others. That left a lot of holes to fill, and the Gamecocks largely addressed them by hitting the portal hard. Rising star Dylan Stewart will be the flashiest player and Bryan Thomas is the lone established senior, with transfers Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy, Davonte Miles and Justin Okoronkwo filling a big void. But perhaps the biggest name to know is sophomore Fred “JayR” Johnson, a rangy linebacker with lauded leadership skills who South Carolina hopes will blossom into the centerpiece of the defense after playing a small role as a freshman in 2024. — David Hale
Area of concern: Wide receiver
With receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins both off to the NFL — having been drafted by the Houston Texans in back-to-back rounds — receiver is a good place to start. Noel and Higgins combined for nearly 2,400 receiving yards last season and that type of production will need to be replaced by more than just two players. But even with those holes to fill, the lack of a pass rush last season remains a glaring question mark. If the Cyclones can’t improve upon their conference-worst sack total, it’s hard to see how they can make a run at the Big 12 title, especially given the unknowns at receiver. — Bonagura
Area of concern: Defensive line
One of the most underappreciated keys to SMU’s playoff run last season was the veteran talent up front on defense. Elijah Roberts, Jared Harrison-Hunte and Jahfari Harvey all came from Miami and had multiple years as a starter under their belts in 2024. There won’t be nearly so much experience this year. Add in the departures of Ahmad Walker and Kobe Wilson at linebacker, and there’s a vacuum waiting to be filled in terms of leadership. SMU does return safety Isaiah Nwokobia, who was an All-ACC performer last season, and there’s buzz surrounding East Carolina transfer Zakye Barker at linebacker, but establishing some key voices — and performers — on the D-line remains a question. — Hale
Area of concern: Defense
Does the defensive makeover actually work? The Red Raiders’ D can’t get much worse than what it was in 2024, and that’s not hyperbole. Texas Tech finished 126th in total defense in 2024. The secondary was 132nd in passing yards per game. Shiel Wood takes over as defensive coordinator, and there have been tons of portal additions to this side of the ball. Players such as Stanford linebacker David Bailey and Georgia Tech end Romello Height stand out, along with five transfer defensive backs. There’s really only one way for this group to go, and it’s up. — Lyles Jr.
Area of concern: Defense
Despite the fact that talented defensive end Mikail Kamara is returning, the transfer-heavy unit that allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the Big Ten last season lost some key contributors. Gone to the NFL are CJ West and James Carpenter, and while Indiana did not hesitate to dip into the transfer portal to reload with players such as Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky), Stephen Daley (Kent State), Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State) and Kellan Wyatt (Maryland), one of the Hoosiers’ strongest position groups last year has a lot to prove and live up to in 2025. — Uggetti
Area of concern: Stopping big plays
K-State’s offense was delightfully explosive last season, but the defense often gave up as many big plays as the offense created. The Wildcats blitzed a lot and harassed QBs well, but they ranked 110th in Total QBR allowed and 107th in completions of 10 or more yards allowed. That’s a concern considering the defense lost both leading pass rusher Brendan Mott and four of last year’s five starters in the secondary. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman might have to fiddle with the risk-reward balance to get the most out of this defense and help the Wildcats contend in the ultracompetitive Big 12. — Connelly
Area of concern: Wide receiver
One of the reasons Florida is expected to improve in 2025 is because of the talent that quarterback DJ Lagway brings. But the Gators’ top receivers from last season, Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, left for the NFL. Eugene Wilson III is back, but also coming off season-ending hip surgery. It will be up to Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson, Naeshaun Montgomery and J. Michael Sturdivant (UCLA transfer) to help establish themselves. — Lyles Jr.
Area of concern: Wide receiver
The Wolverines ranked 129th last season with just 1,678 passing yards. Quarterback play was part of the issue, as Michigan cycled through three quarterbacks (Davis Warren, Jack Tuttle and Alex Orji) in its first season after losing national champion JJ McCarthy. But Michigan’s receivers collectively didn’t make enough plays, as no wideout caught more than 27 passes or totaled more than 248 yards. The onus will be even greater on Michigan’s receivers with tight end Colston Loveland — the Wolverines’ only reliable target last year — now playing for the Chicago Bears. Instant impact from transfers Anthony Simpson (UMass) and Donaven McCulley (Indiana), combined with internal improvement from the likes of Fredrick Moore and Semaj Morgan, will be paramount if Michigan is going to threaten opposing defensive backfields in 2025. — Trotter
Area of concern: Linebacker
The Hurricanes did another fantastic job shoring up positions across the roster in the transfer portal, especially considering how much turnover they had from last season. But if there is one position that still has some questions, it is linebacker, mainly because depth may become an issue as the season wears on. Miami returns three key veterans in Wesley Bissainthe, Jaylin Alderman and Popo Aguirre, and signed NC State transfer Kamal Bonner and Rutgers transfer Mo Toure. Miami often looked slow and out of position at linebacker last season, but the new scheme from defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman should help. The player to keep an eye on here is Toure, whom Hetherman coached while he was at Rutgers. Toure is coming off a knee injury (his second torn ACL in three years), but his potential to fit into this defense, considering his past with Hetherman, is huge. — Adelson
Area of concern: Defensive end
For the past three years, Louisville was able to rely on a genuine star off the edge in Ashton Gillotte, who racked up 21.5 sacks from 2022-24. Gillotte is off to the NFL now, a third-round pick by the Chiefs. That leaves a major void at defensive end. Louisville has a couple of transfers — Wesley Bailey from Rutgers and Clev Lubin from Coastal Carolina — hoping to fill the void, but the strength of the D-line will certainly be on the interior, where the Cards have much more established depth. As Louisville works to remedy issues defending the pass, finding someone — or, ideally, a few guys — who can get after the QB will be one of the most critical jobs for the defense as it prepares for 2025. — Hale
Area of concern: Wide receiver
Just like last season, a big question for the Aggies’ potential is how their wide receiver room will shake out. The Aggies lost Noah Thomas, a bright spot in an otherwise spotty position for A&M and new offensive coordinator Collin Klein, to Georgia after Thomas caught 39 passes for 574 yards and eight touchdowns last year. No other player caught more than two TDs or eclipsed 400 yards on the season as the Aggies fought through a QB change from Conner Weigman to Marcel Reed. This year, the Aggies are looking toward NC State transfer KC Concepcion (71 catches, 839 yards, 10 TDs in 2023, 53-460-6 last year), Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver (17-368-3 as a freshman), as well as returners Ashton Bethel-Roman, 6-2, 220-pound freshman four-star recruit Jerome Myles and dynamic 2024 five-star recruit Terry Bussey, who played something of an all-purpose role last year. As this group goes, so will Reed and the offense. — Wilson
Area of concern: Quarterback
Austin Simmons seems like a talented individual — we’re talking about someone who is athletically gifted enough to play baseball for Ole Miss as well. But anytime you are replacing one of the better quarterbacks in your conference, in this case Jaxson Dart, who was a first-round NFL draft pick, there has to be some level of concern. But from what we’ve seen out of Simmons, there’s promise. His drive against Georgia last season, where he led a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to tie the game while Dart was injured, should give the Ole Miss faithful something to be excited about. — Lyles Jr.
Area of concern: Tight end
It’s been a struggle at tight end for the Sooners, and there’s again uncertainty around the position heading into the 2025 season. Granted, there was plenty of blame to go around for Oklahoma’s struggles on offense last season, but finding more consistency at tight end in both the receiving and blocking categories would be a big boost for an offense that has tons of new faces. There isn’t a definitive starter at tight end entering preseason camp. Transfers Will Huggins (Kansas and Pittsburg State) and Carson Kent (Kennesaw State) are expected to battle with converted linebacker Jaren Kanak for the job. — Low
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