‘You just have to find who you are’: Why some pitchers are prioritizing execution over velocity
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Logan Webb is one of the best starting pitchers in the major leagues — certainly one of the few you might confidently call an ace. The San Francisco Giants’ 27-year-old right-hander throws a sinking fastball with 30 inches of vertical break plus arm-side horizontal movement, a changeup considered one of the best in the game and a sweeper he likes to throw when ahead in the count — and he has the command to hit the corners or the bottom of the strike zone with all three pitches.
Since his breakout season in 2021, Webb ranks fourth among all pitchers in WAR — and is about to pass the injured Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara to trail only Zack Wheeler. He has been durable, leading all pitchers in 2023 with 216 innings. With the movement on his sinker and changeup, he induces a high rate of grounders, thus limiting home runs better than your typical starter.
In many ways, Webb looks like the perfect prototype for a modern starting pitcher, except for one thing: He doesn’t throw hard, at least by current standards. His sinker has averaged 92 mph this season, well below the MLB average fastball velocity of 93.7 mph.
In a season in which so many starting pitchers have been hit with injuries, those around baseball have speculated on how to keep pitchers healthier, and velocity has been part of that discussion. Would pitchers get hurt less often if they weren’t throwing as hard? In other words: If they were more like Webb?
It’s a theory — although one that not even its poster child necessarily lives by.
“I’ll be honest, I still chase velocity,” Webb told ESPN. “Every offseason I’m trying to add miles per hour.”
But now that Webb and others have shown an alternative path to ace-dom — will anyone else follow their lead?
When Webb reached the majors in 2019, he was more of a conventional four-seam fastball pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and returned throwing 93 to 96 mph. The Giants wanted him to throw his four-seamer up in the zone, and he threw it 43% of the time during his eight-start call-up. When the Giants hired Brian Bannister as their director of pitching after that season, he convinced Webb to drop his arm angle and throw his sinker more. After Webb dropped his arm angle even more in 2021, it all came together — his sinker and changeup merging into a potent pairing.
“The cool thing about Major League Baseball is that nobody’s the same,” Webb said. “So, guys that throw hard, they just throw hard. Guys that don’t throw hard, you have to find ways to get outs. I wouldn’t say to try to do what I do, because they might not throw that way, right? Since everyone’s different. I wouldn’t tell Spencer Strider to throw like me and I wouldn’t tell me to throw like Spencer Strider.”
Strider, the Atlanta Braves’ ace, had surgery to repair his UCL in April — and he’s one of nine of the 10 starters with the hardest fastballs from last season who have been on the injured list in 2024. Strider, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez and Shane McClanahan are out for the season, and Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch after having elbow surgery last year. Gerrit Cole has yet to return after going down in spring training. Grayson Rodriguez and Jesus Luzardo are back after short IL stints while Bobby Miller is still out. Only Hunter Greene hasn’t missed time.
Pitchers understand the risks involved with throwing high-velocity pitches. They also know the payoff.
“It’s obviously harder to hit 98 than it is 92,” said Red Sox reliever Liam Hendriks, who is sidelined after undergoing his own Tommy John surgery last summer. “I mean, when I was 92 guy, I had a 7.00 ERA. When I was a 98 guy, it was sub-2.00.”
Hendriks is right — and the numbers are stark. Here are how batters fared against fastballs in increments of two miles per hour in 2023:
100+ mph: .188/.265/.225
98-99.9 mph: .253/.333/.357
96-97.9 mph: .262/.342/.383
94-95.9 mph: .279/.357/.413
92-93.9 mph: .290/.369/.431
90-91.9 mph: .286/.363/.449
Under 90 mph: .323/.394/.515
Throw softer, get hit harder — not to mention that if you throw faster, it’s that much more difficult for batters to adjust to off-speed pitches.
And less contact isn’t the only positive that comes from throwing harder.
“Everyone’s chasing velocity now, because guys get paid for those numbers, certain numbers that require better stuff,” Hendriks said. “It will always edge that way no matter what, just purely based on the finances of the game. If they paid guys for just outs rather than strikeouts, it probably wouldn’t be as big of an issue. It’s not even the front office, it’s the arbitration process. Those numbers are skewed toward certain statistics. Even ERA isn’t generally a huge indicator of how it goes.”
Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt said on Chris Rose’s podcast earlier this season that he’s been on teams where relievers with a 3.80 ERA get released while relievers with a 4.80 ERA are kept — as long as they throw harder. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito pointed to Tyler Glasnow as proof of how the system works: The Dodgers gave Glasnow, who throws 96 mph with a wipeout breaking ball, a $136 million extension this past offseason even though he has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season.
However, when asked what would happen if pitchers didn’t try to max out velocity as much, rookie left-hander Kyle Harrison — Webb’s teammate on the Giants whose fastball sits at 93 mph — said he believed it could perhaps help baseball’s pitching injury crisis.
“I think that you’d probably see a little more offense, but you’d probably see less injuries. You hate to say it, but you probably would,” Harrison said. “But we’re trying to get these guys out and it takes every ounce of what we got to get them out sometimes. But that’s a good question. I think definitely some stuff would maybe get hit harder, but who knows, maybe you’d hit your spots better.”
And of course, even Harrison picks his moments to turn it up.
“If I got a guy 1-2, two outs in a situation with runners on, then I’m going to kind of reach back and get a little more,” he said. “I’ve never looked up the stats, but you always know when it’s that sixth or seventh inning and you’re at 98 pitches, you know that’s your last pitch, it feels like every pitcher, that last pitch might be an extra 1.5 mph.”
In fact, while Harrison averages 92.7 mph on his fastball overall, with two strikes it ramps up to 93.4 mph. Batters have hit .155 against his fastball with two strikes.
Sometimes less is better — sometimes more is better.
Still, though, a number of pitchers are proving that the art of pitching can still work, despite the financial incentives and stats pushing them to throw faster and faster.
Webb is having another good season, with a 2.74 ERA, while tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched. Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a 91 mph sinker — which is actually down in velocity from last season — and he’s off to an incredible start. Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs has come over from Japan and befuddled batters with a 92 mph four-seamer and splitter. Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals sits 92-93 mph and is having the best season of his career. Despite all the injuries to big-name, high-velocity starters, 26 qualified starters have an ERA below 3.00 through Sunday. Sixteen of those 26 have an average fastball velocity below the major league average.
Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox is one of those, with a sinker that clocks in at 93.3 mph, a little under the MLB average. He first reached the majors in 2020 and has shuffled between starting and relieving, spending most of 2022 in the bullpen before making all his appearances last season and this year as a starter. At 28 years old, he’s having the best season of his career, with a 1.90 ERA and just one home run allowed through his first 11 starts.
He’s found that, for him, not throwing as hard works.
“I realized that if I’m at 92, 94 [mph], I hit spots better,” Houck said. “My movement’s better. It produces ground balls earlier in the count. I’m in the zone more and that allows me to get deep in the games. So, it didn’t take much to convince myself [to not throw as hard]. I just really had to kind of look at the mirror and realize the person I am and the man I am. Just had to ego check myself.”
When Houck pitched out of the bullpen in 2022, he threw his four-seamer nearly as often as his sinker, with the four-seamer averaging 95.2 mph. As a starter, he’s now completely ditched that pitch, sticking with a sinker, splitter, slider and occasional cutter. The splitter, thanks to a slight grip change, is better than ever, but as with Webb, the key is understanding what works best for him.
“If you’re a guy who can throw 97 to 100, by all means, I applaud you,” Houck said. “I think the big thing for young pitchers is you just have to find who you are as a pitcher. If you’re going to be a 94, four-seamer guy at the top of the zone with a curveball, like [Nick] Pivetta, who can also run it up there to 97, 98, that’s great. If you’re going to be a sinkerballer who is hitting the knees, that’s great. For me, I’m an east-west guy, I’m a low three-quarter. I’m not going to throw four-seamers at the top of the zone. I’ve tried that and it didn’t work out.”
For Webb, part of that pitching identity has also become maximizing efficiency. When he first reached the majors, his teammates included Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija — all pitchers who had thrown 200 innings on multiple occasions. Webb wanted to be like those guys, and in his brain, being a starter meant getting to 200 innings.
Last season, Webb was one of just five pitchers to reach 200 innings while averaging 6.5 innings per start — getting there, in part, because he ranked second in fewest pitches per inning among qualified starters. This year he’s averaged 6.0 innings (thanks to a couple poor outings in April) and 97.8 pitches per start, still above the MLB averages of 5⅓ innings and 87 pitches.
Don’t mistake efficiency for an inability to strike batters out, though — it’s hard to survive just on grounders alone. Webb has fanned 20.3% of the batters he’s faced this season, just below the MLB average of 21.8% for starting pitchers. Last year, he was a tick above average at 22.8%. Suarez (28.4%), Imanaga (27.8%) and Houck (24.4%) are among those with above-average K rates in 2024.
But pitchers like Harrison know that strikeouts still aren’t everything — it’s all about getting out of the inning whatever way you can.
“I was a big strikeout guy in the minor leagues,” he said. “That’s something I really wanted and would kind of strive for at times. The starts I’ve had up here, I kind of realize I’ll take the out however it comes if it saves me five pitches. That’s five more pitches I can give later in the game. So that’s kind of my mindset. Obviously everyone loves strikeouts, but we want to be efficient as pitchers — and that’s something I picked up in watching Alex Cobb and Logan Webb last year.”
Hall of Famer pitcher Greg Maddux, the master of the running two-seamer, likes to say that “pitching isn’t a speed contest, it’s an execution contest.” We’re seeing that from pitchers like Webb, Houck and Suarez.
While the chase for velocity isn’t going away, that quote reminds us of the importance of knowing how to pitch. And as the game continues to evolve, so too will pitchers — and batters.
As hurlers sort out their pitching identity and what works best for them, batters have slowly adapted to changes in the game as well, fine tuning their abilities to keep up with the varying types of pitches and speeds they see in the batter’s box.
Houck has seen that firsthand in teammate Rafael Devers.
“It’s special — what he can do in today’s game,” Houck said. “How he can hit 100, but then he can also wait back and hit 85. I don’t know how anybody gets a hit. It’s genuinely the most fascinating thing, watching a hitter, because what they do is impossible.”
Pitchers have responded to the Deverses of the world with fewer fastballs — even high-velocity ones get hit — with more sweepers. The percentage of four-seamers and sinkers has dropped from 52.4% in 2019 to 47.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, pitches classified as sweepers have increased from 0.6% to 5.8% in that timeframe.
Will that eventually lead to more pitchers who don’t rely purely on velocity?
“If you look at any analytics or stuff they give you, off-speed pitches work better, they have better numbers,” Webb says. “If you’re talking ISO or X-slug or all those expected things, breaking balls and changeups were better than fastballs.
“So, it’s like, do you want to keep throwing your fastball? Or do you want to throw off-speed? It’s really just about whether or not you execute the pitch. Because if you execute the pitch, it doesn’t matter if batters know what’s coming or not. It’s most likely going to be an out. That’s what pitching is.”
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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