Logan Webb is one of the best starting pitchers in the major leagues — certainly one of the few you might confidently call an ace. The San Francisco Giants’ 27-year-old right-hander throws a sinking fastball with 30 inches of vertical break plus arm-side horizontal movement, a changeup considered one of the best in the game and a sweeper he likes to throw when ahead in the count — and he has the command to hit the corners or the bottom of the strike zone with all three pitches.
Since his breakout season in 2021, Webb ranks fourth among all pitchers in WAR — and is about to pass the injured Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara to trail only Zack Wheeler. He has been durable, leading all pitchers in 2023 with 216 innings. With the movement on his sinker and changeup, he induces a high rate of grounders, thus limiting home runs better than your typical starter.
In many ways, Webb looks like the perfect prototype for a modern starting pitcher, except for one thing: He doesn’t throw hard, at least by current standards. His sinker has averaged 92 mph this season, well below the MLB average fastball velocity of 93.7 mph.
In a season in which so many starting pitchers have been hit with injuries, those around baseball have speculated on how to keep pitchers healthier, and velocity has been part of that discussion. Would pitchers get hurt less often if they weren’t throwing as hard? In other words: If they were more like Webb?
It’s a theory — although one that not even its poster child necessarily lives by.
“I’ll be honest, I still chase velocity,” Webb told ESPN. “Every offseason I’m trying to add miles per hour.”
But now that Webb and others have shown an alternative path to ace-dom — will anyone else follow their lead?
When Webb reached the majors in 2019, he was more of a conventional four-seam fastball pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and returned throwing 93 to 96 mph. The Giants wanted him to throw his four-seamer up in the zone, and he threw it 43% of the time during his eight-start call-up. When the Giants hired Brian Bannister as their director of pitching after that season, he convinced Webb to drop his arm angle and throw his sinker more. After Webb dropped his arm angle even more in 2021, it all came together — his sinker and changeup merging into a potent pairing.
“The cool thing about Major League Baseball is that nobody’s the same,” Webb said. “So, guys that throw hard, they just throw hard. Guys that don’t throw hard, you have to find ways to get outs. I wouldn’t say to try to do what I do, because they might not throw that way, right? Since everyone’s different. I wouldn’t tell Spencer Strider to throw like me and I wouldn’t tell me to throw like Spencer Strider.”
Strider, the Atlanta Braves’ ace, had surgery to repair his UCL in April — and he’s one of nine of the 10 starters with the hardest fastballs from last season who have been on the injured list in 2024. Strider, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez and Shane McClanahan are out for the season, and Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch after having elbow surgery last year. Gerrit Cole has yet to return after going down in spring training. Grayson Rodriguez and Jesus Luzardo are back after short IL stints while Bobby Miller is still out. Only Hunter Greene hasn’t missed time.
Pitchers understand the risks involved with throwing high-velocity pitches. They also know the payoff.
“It’s obviously harder to hit 98 than it is 92,” said Red Sox reliever Liam Hendriks, who is sidelined after undergoing his own Tommy John surgery last summer. “I mean, when I was 92 guy, I had a 7.00 ERA. When I was a 98 guy, it was sub-2.00.”
Hendriks is right — and the numbers are stark. Here are how batters fared against fastballs in increments of two miles per hour in 2023:
Throw softer, get hit harder — not to mention that if you throw faster, it’s that much more difficult for batters to adjust to off-speed pitches.
And less contact isn’t the only positive that comes from throwing harder.
“Everyone’s chasing velocity now, because guys get paid for those numbers, certain numbers that require better stuff,” Hendriks said. “It will always edge that way no matter what, just purely based on the finances of the game. If they paid guys for just outs rather than strikeouts, it probably wouldn’t be as big of an issue. It’s not even the front office, it’s the arbitration process. Those numbers are skewed toward certain statistics. Even ERA isn’t generally a huge indicator of how it goes.”
Blue Jays starter Chris Bassittsaid on Chris Rose’s podcast earlier this season that he’s been on teams where relievers with a 3.80 ERA get released while relievers with a 4.80 ERA are kept — as long as they throw harder. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito pointed to Tyler Glasnow as proof of how the system works: The Dodgers gave Glasnow, who throws 96 mph with a wipeout breaking ball, a $136 million extension this past offseason even though he has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season.
However, when asked what would happen if pitchers didn’t try to max out velocity as much, rookie left-hander Kyle Harrison — Webb’s teammate on the Giants whose fastball sits at 93 mph — said he believed it could perhaps help baseball’s pitching injury crisis.
“I think that you’d probably see a little more offense, but you’d probably see less injuries. You hate to say it, but you probably would,” Harrison said. “But we’re trying to get these guys out and it takes every ounce of what we got to get them out sometimes. But that’s a good question. I think definitely some stuff would maybe get hit harder, but who knows, maybe you’d hit your spots better.”
And of course, even Harrison picks his moments to turn it up.
“If I got a guy 1-2, two outs in a situation with runners on, then I’m going to kind of reach back and get a little more,” he said. “I’ve never looked up the stats, but you always know when it’s that sixth or seventh inning and you’re at 98 pitches, you know that’s your last pitch, it feels like every pitcher, that last pitch might be an extra 1.5 mph.”
In fact, while Harrison averages 92.7 mph on his fastball overall, with two strikes it ramps up to 93.4 mph. Batters have hit .155 against his fastball with two strikes.
Sometimes less is better — sometimes more is better.
Still, though, a number of pitchers are proving that the art of pitching can still work, despite the financial incentives and stats pushing them to throw faster and faster.
Webb is having another good season, with a 2.74 ERA, while tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched. Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a 91 mph sinker — which is actually down in velocity from last season — and he’s off to an incredible start. Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs has come over from Japan and befuddled batters with a 92 mph four-seamer and splitter. Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals sits 92-93 mph and is having the best season of his career. Despite all the injuries to big-name, high-velocity starters, 26 qualified starters have an ERA below 3.00 through Sunday. Sixteen of those 26 have an average fastball velocity below the major league average.
Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox is one of those, with a sinker that clocks in at 93.3 mph, a little under the MLB average. He first reached the majors in 2020 and has shuffled between starting and relieving, spending most of 2022 in the bullpen before making all his appearances last season and this year as a starter. At 28 years old, he’s having the best season of his career, with a 1.90 ERA and just one home run allowed through his first 11 starts.
He’s found that, for him, not throwing as hard works.
“I realized that if I’m at 92, 94 [mph], I hit spots better,” Houck said. “My movement’s better. It produces ground balls earlier in the count. I’m in the zone more and that allows me to get deep in the games. So, it didn’t take much to convince myself [to not throw as hard]. I just really had to kind of look at the mirror and realize the person I am and the man I am. Just had to ego check myself.”
When Houck pitched out of the bullpen in 2022, he threw his four-seamer nearly as often as his sinker, with the four-seamer averaging 95.2 mph. As a starter, he’s now completely ditched that pitch, sticking with a sinker, splitter, slider and occasional cutter. The splitter, thanks to a slight grip change, is better than ever, but as with Webb, the key is understanding what works best for him.
“If you’re a guy who can throw 97 to 100, by all means, I applaud you,” Houck said. “I think the big thing for young pitchers is you just have to find who you are as a pitcher. If you’re going to be a 94, four-seamer guy at the top of the zone with a curveball, like [Nick] Pivetta, who can also run it up there to 97, 98, that’s great. If you’re going to be a sinkerballer who is hitting the knees, that’s great. For me, I’m an east-west guy, I’m a low three-quarter. I’m not going to throw four-seamers at the top of the zone. I’ve tried that and it didn’t work out.”
For Webb, part of that pitching identity has also become maximizing efficiency. When he first reached the majors, his teammates included Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija — all pitchers who had thrown 200 innings on multiple occasions. Webb wanted to be like those guys, and in his brain, being a starter meant getting to 200 innings.
Last season, Webb was one of just five pitchers to reach 200 innings while averaging 6.5 innings per start — getting there, in part, because he ranked second in fewest pitches per inning among qualified starters. This year he’s averaged 6.0 innings (thanks to a couple poor outings in April) and 97.8 pitches per start, still above the MLB averages of 5⅓ innings and 87 pitches.
Don’t mistake efficiency for an inability to strike batters out, though — it’s hard to survive just on grounders alone. Webb has fanned 20.3% of the batters he’s faced this season, just below the MLB average of 21.8% for starting pitchers. Last year, he was a tick above average at 22.8%. Suarez (28.4%), Imanaga (27.8%) and Houck (24.4%) are among those with above-average K rates in 2024.
But pitchers like Harrison know that strikeouts still aren’t everything — it’s all about getting out of the inning whatever way you can.
“I was a big strikeout guy in the minor leagues,” he said. “That’s something I really wanted and would kind of strive for at times. The starts I’ve had up here, I kind of realize I’ll take the out however it comes if it saves me five pitches. That’s five more pitches I can give later in the game. So that’s kind of my mindset. Obviously everyone loves strikeouts, but we want to be efficient as pitchers — and that’s something I picked up in watching Alex Cobb and Logan Webb last year.”
Hall of Famer pitcher Greg Maddux, the master of the running two-seamer, likes to say that “pitching isn’t a speed contest, it’s an execution contest.” We’re seeing that from pitchers like Webb, Houck and Suarez.
While the chase for velocity isn’t going away, that quote reminds us of the importance of knowing how to pitch. And as the game continues to evolve, so too will pitchers — and batters.
As hurlers sort out their pitching identity and what works best for them, batters have slowly adapted to changes in the game as well, fine tuning their abilities to keep up with the varying types of pitches and speeds they see in the batter’s box.
Houck has seen that firsthand in teammate Rafael Devers.
“It’s special — what he can do in today’s game,” Houck said. “How he can hit 100, but then he can also wait back and hit 85. I don’t know how anybody gets a hit. It’s genuinely the most fascinating thing, watching a hitter, because what they do is impossible.”
Pitchers have responded to the Deverses of the world with fewer fastballs — even high-velocity ones get hit — with more sweepers. The percentage of four-seamers and sinkers has dropped from 52.4% in 2019 to 47.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, pitches classified as sweepers have increased from 0.6% to 5.8% in that timeframe.
Will that eventually lead to more pitchers who don’t rely purely on velocity?
“If you look at any analytics or stuff they give you, off-speed pitches work better, they have better numbers,” Webb says. “If you’re talking ISO or X-slug or all those expected things, breaking balls and changeups were better than fastballs.
“So, it’s like, do you want to keep throwing your fastball? Or do you want to throw off-speed? It’s really just about whether or not you execute the pitch. Because if you execute the pitch, it doesn’t matter if batters know what’s coming or not. It’s most likely going to be an out. That’s what pitching is.”
Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
May 21, 2025, 11:35 PM ET
Game 1 of the Western Conference finals between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers was actually like two games in one.
The first 40 minutes belonged to the Oilers, who looked absolutely unstoppable. They built a 3-1 lead against an overwhelmed Stars team, whose only goal was on a Tyler Seguin breakaway.
Unfortunately for Edmonton, a playoffs-long trend continued for their penalty kill. It was torched for seven goals in the opening three games against the Los Angeles Kings. It gave up three goals in the first two games against Vegas. In Game 1 of the conference final, it was like a defibrillator for the Stars, who barely had a pulse after going down 3-1 after two periods. Miro Heiskanen, Mikael Granlund and Matt Duchene all scored power-play goals in the first 5:58 of the third period to rally Dallas to the lead. The Stars never looked back, taking Game 1 by a 6-3 score.
How did both teams perform? What are the big questions facing each team ahead of Game 2 on Friday night?
The Oilers had it all in hand — just to let a win slip through their fingers.
Edmonton had been idle for a week after finishing off Vegas in five games in its second-round series. And at first, the Oilers looked well rested in a fairly clean road game considering the lengthy layoff. Edmonton had a snafu in the first period letting Tyler Seguin free on a breakaway that he converted into a tying goal but other than that, Edmonton put on a defensive clinic to keep the Stars at bay through 40 minutes. The Oilers power play did — as Connor McDavid predicted — arrive at last, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scoring Edmonton’s first road goal with the man advantage in the postseason to give the Oilers a 2-1 lead, which they extended to 3-1 going into the third. That’s when the wheels fell off.
Edmonton gave up three power-play goals in less than six minutes to sit in a one-goal deficit they never came back from. The Oilers could have recovered on special teams themselves but didn’t convert with their own third-period tries and finished 1-for-3 with the extra attacker. Edmonton’s bench was rightly deflated even before Seguin scored a dagger late in the final period to ice the Stars’ victory. It was a tale of two teams for the Oilers — and the worst of the two prevailed. — Shilton
play
0:53
Stars score 3rd straight goal to take lead over Oilers
Matt Duchene notches the Stars’ third power-play of the third period to give them a lead.
The Stars’ power play gets an A-plus. It was Honor Society-worthy. It was the valedictorian of Game 1. Dallas was absolutely cooked against McDavid and Leon Draisaitl until their three power-play goals to open the third period. The Stars became the second team since 1934 — when goals by type were first tabulated by the NHL — with three goals on the man advantage in the opening six minutes of a playoff period. They became the first team with three power-play goals in the third period of a playoff game since the San Jose Sharks scored four in Game 7 against the Golden Knights in 2019 — back when Peter DeBoer was the Sharks’ head coach, incidentally.
The rest of the Stars’ game gets a C-plus. The first two periods were not what you want to see against Edmonton, with defensive lapses and high-danger chances handed to the Oilers. Edmonton looked like a team that had won eight of its past nine playoff games. The Stars made Stuart Skinner much too comfortable. The third period belongs in the Louvre, not only for the power-play goals but for a key penalty kill against the Oilers, Sam Steel’s dagger and another strong final stanza by Jake Oettinger, who was 6-for-6 on shots.
It’s a great win, especially when one considers how well teams that win Game 1 fare in their series — teams to win Game 1 of a best-of-7 Stanley Cup playoff series have won the series 68% of time. But not every game is going to have the undisciplined play the Oilers had to start the third or the power-play success. Dallas needs to be better, but the good news is that they got the ‘W’ in a game where they weren’t quite at their best.— Wyshynski
Three Stars of Game 1
Two goals and an assist, including the opening goal for Dallas, his first breakaway goal since November, the team’s fourth this postseason, most of any team so far.
One goal and an assist. His 13th career multi-point game in the playoffs, tied with Sergei Zubov for the most by a defensemen in Stars/North Stars history.
3. Power play goals
The Oilers went 1-3 and the Stars 3-4. Dallas had three power play goals in a row in the third period, their most in the 3rd period of a playoff game in Stars/North Stars history. — Arda Öcal
Players to watch in Game 2
The Oilers netminder has endured a rocky postseason run already, going from the team’s starter, to its backup and then reclaiming the No. 1 role. Skinner appeared dialed in early against the Stars and then was — like the rest of his team — shaky down the stretch. Dallas’ fourth goal was particularly poorly tracked by Skinner, who couldn’t track the puck and was slow to react as Matt Duchene tallied the eventual game-winner. Skinner continued to look rattled from there and displayed less of the confidence he’d shown earlier in Game 1.
Calvin Pickard — who took over starting duties from Skinner in the first round — didn’t travel with the Oilers while continuing to rehab an injury he suffered in Game 2 against Vegas. It’ll be on Skinner to rebound to get Edmonton back on track in Game 2. — Shilton
A lot of quiet sticks got loud in Game 1 when Dallas needed it: Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene and Sam Steel all tallied goals in the Stars’ stunning win. But one player remains curiously quiet, considering his reputation as a playoff standout: Johnston, their outstanding 22-year-old center. His Game 3 goal in a 5-2 rout of Winnipeg was his only point of that series, and he didn’t register a point in Dallas’ rally against Edmonton. The problem for Dallas is that he hasn’t added much at the other end, struggling defensively. He got walked by Leon Draisaitl for the first Edmonton goal. Depth is already vital in this series. The Stars could use Johnston to deepen it further. — Wyshynski
Big questions for Game 2
Can the Oilers clean up their act?
Edmonton was in control of Game 1 until penalty troubles eroded the positive efforts. Will that total lack of discipline become a factor again in Game 2? The Stars were a commanding 3-for-4 with the extra attacker on Wednesday and that’s no surprise given their regular season and playoff success on the power play. Dallas went into this series with the third-best power play of the postseason — and tops amongst remaining squads — at 30.8% while Edmonton had the third-worst penalty kill (66.7%). That’s a tough battle for the Oilers to win when they’re giving up multiple man advantage tries. Dallas proved (repeatedly) they’ll make Edmonton pay for every mistake and Edmonton made too many in Game 1. — Shilton
Is it time to worry about the Finnish Mafia?
The Dallas Stars wouldn’t be in the Western Conference Finals without Mikko Rantanen. And he wouldn’t have entered this round leading the playoffs in scoring without the chemistry he developed with fellow Finns Mikael Granlund and Roope Hintz. But this line hasn’t produced an even-strength goal since Game 5 against the Winnipeg Jets. Granted, they were cooking on the power play in the third period, with Granlund scoring and Hintz and Rantanen assisting on Duchene’s goal. You take that every day. But Dallas was at its most dominant when this line was leading the charge. The Stars are facing a pair of generational talents. They have a superstar of their own in Rantanen. He needs to bring that level of excellence at 5-on-5. — Wyshynski
DALLAS — There’s mounting a comeback, and then there’s what the Dallas Stars did by rallying against what might be the greatest comeback team in NHL postseason history.
The Stars, down 3-1 to start the third period Wednesday night, looked to be on their way to losing their ninth Game 1 in their past 10 playoff series, only to score five unanswered goals to beat the Edmonton Oilers6-3 to open the Western Conference finals.
It gave the Stars their sixth comeback this postseason — compared to the Oilers, who set an NHL record earlier in these playoffs with five consecutive comeback wins.
“You score a goal and help your team win, it feels great, but the wins are the best feeling this time of year,” said Stars forward Matt Duchene, who scored his first goal of the postseason. “They’re short-lived. The losses are short-lived. That’s a great comeback win for us. Every team we’ve played so far has a very different makeup to them and a different feel. There’s things we can do better. The nice thing is when you win a game in the playoffs without your A-game, it feels like you want to take it and run with it.”
Edmonton opened with a goal midway through the first period from star center Leon Draisaitl before a turnover saw Tyler Seguin score his first of two goals on a breakaway to tie it with 4:38 remaining.
Stars forward Mason Marchment received a tripping penalty, which opened the door for the Oilers to take a 2-1 lead just 25 seconds into their power play through Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Evan Bouchard then scored 100 seconds later for a 3-1 lead.
It appeared Bouchard’s goal had the Oilers in position to win their fourth consecutive playoff game against the Stars, whom they also faced in last year’s Western Conference finals. It also would have been the Oilers’ third straight victory this postseason, part of a string of contests that had seen them lose only once since their Game 2 defeat to the Los Angeles Kings in the quarterfinals.
Instead? The third period proved to be something of a convergence point that saw the Stars answer some questions while posing a few more for the Oilers.
Dallas entered the conference finals facing concerns about whether it had enough scoring depth to match Edmonton. Prior to Game 1, there were five players who accounted for 81% of the Stars’ goals, compared to the Oilers, who had 14 different forwards score at least one goal.
Edmonton, on the other hand, watched its penalty kill struggle in the second round with a 9.1% success rate. That was the worst of any team in the semifinal round, and it was a jarring juxtaposition from 2024, when the Oilers killed 94% of their penalties.
And Wednesday, Miro Heiskanen, Mikael Granlund and Duchene combined to score three straight power-play goals. Those were the first goals this postseason for Heiskanen and Duchene. Seguin, who hadn’t scored in 10 straight games, scored his second goal pushed it to 5-3, while Esa Lindell‘s empty-netter was his first of the postseason and increased the Stars’ edge to 6-3.
“Everyone was talking about our lack of secondary scoring and in the last round … you have to give Winnipeg some credit,” Stars coach Peter DeBoer said. “They defended their ass off in that series against us. They’re the best defensive team in the league. None of our guys were going to have big numbers in the Winnipeg series but I felt confident that they were going to get going.
“Even in that Winnipeg series, particularly late in that series, we started to see some real signs of creating real chances.”
Three of the Stars’ four wins against the Colorado Avalanche in the quarterfinal round were comebacks, including their dramatic Game 7 that saw star winger Mikko Rantanen score against his former team. So were two of their four wins against the Jets. It established a precedent that the Stars could do it again this postseason.
But to do it against an Oilers team that had shut out the Vegas Golden Knights over the final two contests of their five-game series?
“We played with some more energy,” Granlund said. “I think no one was happy with the first two periods of how we played. We know we’re going to raise our level for the first game. The third period was good. The power play was good, but we’ve got some better games ahead of us.”
The Oilers losing a two-goal lead in Game 1 led to another question: What made it difficult for them to find the type of openings that have allowed them to be such a persistent threat this postseason even while trailing?
“We were short-handed for about six minutes in the third period, and that makes it a little more difficult to come back,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said. “I just think we took a step back. They had the momentum and the energy from the crowd. Obviously, we’re very disappointed. After the first two periods, we felt it was a good start and then it just turned in the third period.
“We’ve had some heartbreaking losses in the playoffs, and we’ve been able to rebound nicely.”
RALEIGH — Carolina Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour said his players have to be smarter about retaliating against the Florida Panthers‘ trademark agitation.
“We know that’s how they do things,” he said on Wednesday, after Florida took a 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference finals with a 5-2 win. “Find a way not to let that get to you. Stick to what is going to win us games.”
At issue for the Hurricanes in Game 1 was center Sebastian Aho‘s roughing penalty against Florida’s Anton Lundell at 6:59 of the first period, which negated a Carolina power play and led to Carter Verhaeghe scoring the first goal of the game on a Panthers’ power play. Aho took a swing at Lundell after the Panthers center cross-checked him. The referees whistled the retaliation but not the initial stickwork that provoked it.
“I mean, the first penalty is bad call, right? You’re going to have those. But that’s my thing: Retaliation penalties are not going to get it done,” Brind’Amour said. “We did a pretty good job with [retaliation], but it just takes one. That’s my point. You can’t have that one, because that really puts you behind the game and now it’s different.”
The Hurricanes are 5-0 when scoring first in the playoffs and 3-3 when they don’t. Carolina’s penalty kill had stopped 14 of 15 power plays at home and 28 of 30 overall in the playoffs until Game 1, when Florida went 2-for-3 with the man advantage.
“They made us pay. It’s a good team that knows how to score goals and finds way to win games when you make mistakes,” Carolina captain Jordan Staal said. “We’ve got to limit those mistakes.”
Another example of the Hurricanes’ retaliation, though a less costly one for Carolina, came in the third period when defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere deliberately shot a puck at Florida forward Brad Marchand. In this case, the Panthers got the worst of it, as Marchand was given a double minor for roughing and a 10-minute misconduct.
“Just heated. I was pretty pissed off. He tried to take a run at me. I shot the puck at him. We had a little [tussle],” Gostisbehere said.
After Game 1, neither Panthers players nor coach Paul Maurice would discuss the incident in detail.
“It happens. It’s what it is. I mean, we block shots all the time, so what’s the difference?” Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad said.
That attitude extends to the Panthers’ composure on the ice. While the Panthers have earned their reputation as an irritating, physical opponent — attributes that helped them win the Stanley Cup for the first time last season — they can dish it out and take it.
Look no further than the Florida crease in Game 1, where the Hurricanes crashed the net of goalie Sergei Bobrovsky with frequency. At one point, forward Andrei Svechnikov‘s hip collided with Bobrovsky’s head. But the goalie wasn’t knocked off his game and his team didn’t retaliate.
“It’s OK. It’s the playoffs. They try to get under the skin. I just focus on my things and try not to think about that,” Bobrovsky said after his Game 1 win.
Maurice praised his netminder’s composure.
“Sergei’s not a kid. He’s been through it. He’s been bumped. He’s just developed a skill set that it just doesn’t bother him,” the coach said. “No one likes getting elbowed in the head, but it won’t be the first time or the last time.”
Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals is Thursday night in Raleigh. The Hurricanes have now lost 13 straight games in that round of the playoffs, including five straight to the Panthers.