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The 2024 college football season will be all about big changes.

Familiar programs are going to be in very different places. The Big Ten, for example, is welcoming Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA, ending the Pac-12 as we knew it; it’s one of several realignments taking place this season. In addition, the sport will have to continue evolving the way players are compensated. And perhaps the most significant new wrinkle of them all comes on the game’s highest-profile stage: The College Football Playoff expands its field from four to 12 teams this season, giving more schools a chance to win their way to the national title.

To help make sense of everything, ESPN is releasing our 2024 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, which include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title, and of course, its probability to make the playoff and win the championship.

From the table below, many of the usual suspects are among the favorite programs to take home the national title, but there is also plenty of uncertainty:

Before we dive into more of the forecast, let’s briefly talk about how all of this works. First things first: The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game. (So that means Georgia is rated as nearly 27 points per game better than the average team, which is pretty good!)

Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times, including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams. Finally, once we have those results, we can say how often each team wins its conference, makes the playoff and achieves other milestones.

Let’s break down some of the main storylines emerging out of the FPI’s numbers ahead of the 2024 season.


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Sarkisian: Texas excited to restore rivalries with A&M, Arkansas in SEC

Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian talks about the Longhorns’ move to the SEC and renewing conference rivalries with Texas A&M and Arkansas.

Two-conference domination

Georgia leads ESPN’s initial playoff predictions, making the expanded field in nearly 80% of our simulations and winning the national title a little over 20% of the time. In addition, the SEC (with a 53% chance of producing the champion) and Big Ten (32%) dominate the national title probability rankings by conference.

Among teams with at least a coin-flip’s chance of making the playoff, the Bulldogs are joined by Oregon (76%), Texas (68%), Ohio State (67%), Notre Dame (60%), Penn State (59%) and Alabama (57%). After that group, there’s a sizable drop-off to the next tier, led by Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee at 37% apiece.

How has the expanded playoff changed the shape of these odds? Overall, 18 teams currently have at least a 20% shot at making the playoff in our preseason model, as opposed to just eight going into last season.


Closer look at the all-important bye

While making the playoff might be a certainty for more top programs this season, merely qualifying isn’t enough anymore. It remains significant to finish among the four highest-ranked conference champs on the committee’s list, and thus earn the all-important bye into the second round of the bracket. Those teams will still need to win three games to capture the title (rather than two under the previous CFP format), but it’s still better than having to win four.

Here are the teams with the best odds of securing that first-round bye:

Interestingly, Oregon ranks highest in the country here — ahead of Georgia. That’s a result of several factors: the Ducks’ comparatively high chance of going undefeated (16%) against their new Big Ten schedule, and the fact that they have the best odds of winning their conference among power-conference schools (37%). Both are good ingredients to end up in the top four.

On a related note: Sorry, Notre Dame, but your team is not allowed to get a bye; only conference champions are eligible. But with 60% odds, the Irish are far and away the most probable playoff team outside the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. We will also get to see at least one non-power-conference team make the playoff this year, as a fifth conference champ is guaranteed a spot in the field.

Here are the odds for each Group of 5 conference to send at least one team to the playoff:


Florida and Washington moving in opposite directions?

Despite the importance of the new format, however, the 2024 season will still be determined by the elite players and programs. In terms of pure talent, Georgia is projected to easily rank No. 1 in the FPI — sitting roughly 2.3 points per game better than No. 2 Oregon — on the strength of the nation’s No. 2 projected offense and No. 3 defense. Five teams are projected to be at least three touchdowns better than the average FBS team: Georgia (plus-26.8), Oregon (24.5), Texas (22.9), Ohio State (22.2) and Alabama (21.9).

Some schools have risen up the ranks since the end of last season. Florida is up from 41st to 20th on the strength of 15 returning starters and a strong showing in the transfer portal. Auburn and Kansas have also leapt into the top 20 after finishing further down the list last season. Tennessee’s ranking more closely resembles that of its 2022 breakout campaign than 2023, when they came back to Earth, while Texas is projected for its highest FPI finish (No. 3) since it made the BCS championship game in 2009. Meanwhile, USC is projected to hold steady at 18th despite losing quarterback Caleb Williams, this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick by the Chicago Bears.

In addition, the FPI projections are down on both of 2023’s championship game contestants. Washington has slipped to 31st, and defending champ Michigan is down to 12th, after each school lost its head coach — Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama and Jim Harbaugh went to the Los Angeles Chargers, respectively — as well as its starting QB and most of its starters. How much both programs can reload will be a big storyline to watch this season. And one other notable dip belongs to Kansas State, which falls from 11th to 22nd.

Here’s this year’s projected FPI top 20:


Can’t forget about Deion’s Buffaloes

Where do Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes land in our ratings? They’re 36th, with a 16th-place ranking on offense with Shedeur Sanders returning at quarterback (along with a bunch of new transfers, as we’ve come to expect from this program).

Along with a season forecast of 6.3 wins, that might not be to Sanders’ liking — but by rising from 77th in the FPI in 2023, the Buffaloes are projected to be the second-most-improved team in the FBS, trailing only Stanford (who’s up from 106th to 59th).

Colorado should benefit from a slightly easier schedule in 2024 — the Buffaloes rank 45th in projected FPI schedule strength, versus 39th a year ago — and its scoring differential indicated a team slightly better than its record last season, both signs that point to continued improvement in Boulder.

But if the Buffaloes are going to really make the most of their potential, they’ll have to win on Sept. 28 at UCF, on Oct. 18 at Arizona and, most importantly, at Kansas on Nov. 23. According to the FPI, those are the three games that swing Colorado’s odds of making the playoff most. Lose any of them, and Colorado has very little chance to make the bracket as an at-large or (more likely) a conference winner out of the Big 12.


Mark ’em down: Biggest games of 2024

Along those same lines, let’s look at the best and most important games of the season, according to the FPI. There are a few ways to quantify this, starting with simply looking at the combined ratings of both schools in a particular contest. By that measure, these are the 20 biggest games on the 2024 schedule:

But there’s also another way of looking at the top games, based on how much they affect the postseason picture. Our simulations have a cool feature called “leverage,” which measures the average change in probability (whether that be national title odds, playoff odds, conference title odds, etc.) for both teams depending on whether they win or lose a given game.

Here are the 2024 games that have the highest leverage in terms of who makes the CFP:

Both rankings are mostly filled with games from the SEC and Big Ten, with a few Notre Dame games, some nonconference tilts and a Week 6 Clemson-FSU matchup in the ACC.

One consequence of the expanded bracket is that fewer games feature huge leverage ratings for both teams’ chances of making the playoff, since more of the top teams have better playoff odds than ever before. But at the same time, realignment has given fans more in-conference battles on these lists, which matter a great deal toward a team’s odds of winning the conference, and thereby potentially securing one of the top four seeds.

That means any fears that playoff expansion would dilute the importance of the regular season might be overblown. There is still plenty to play for across the country each week, and our FPI rankings and projections will help you stay on top of it all.

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Stockton fuels comeback as UGA topples Ole Miss

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Stockton fuels comeback as UGA topples Ole Miss

Gunner Stockton passed for 289 yards and four touchdowns, including three to tight end Lawson Luckie, and No. 9 Georgia overcame Trinidad Chambliss and No. 5 Mississippi’s powerful offense to rally for a 43-35 win over the Rebels on Saturday.

Georgia (6-1, 4-1 Southeastern Conference) rallied after trailing 35-26 at the start of the fourth quarter. Stockton’s 7-yard touchdown pass to Luckie with 7:29 remaining gave Georgia a 40-35 lead.

Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1) was denied its first road win over a top 10 team under coach Lane Kiffin even though the Rebels scored touchdowns on their first five possessions.

Stockton completed 26 of 31 passes and added a 22-yard scoring run in the crucial SEC showdown.

“It was a great day,” Stockton said. “We just played for each other and that’s the best part of our team.”

Stockton and the Bulldogs had no turnovers.

In previewing the game, Kiffin said winning at Georgia would mean the Rebels have taken “another step” in their move up the SEC. That looked likely when they scored touchdowns on each of their first five possessions, taking a nine-point lead in the third quarter.

Suddenly, the Ole Miss offense lost its magic as Georgia did not give up another first down.

Following the first punt of the game by either team with 12:44 remaining, Stockton led a nine-play, 67-yard drive capped by the 7-yard scoring pass to Luckie that gave the Bulldogs their first lead of the second half.

Following another stop by Georgia’s defense, Stockton led a 10-play drive to set up Peyton Woodring‘s third field goal of the game, a 42-yarder, to stretch the lead to eight points with 2:06 remaining.

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Pavia strikes Heisman pose as Vandy outlasts LSU

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Pavia strikes Heisman pose as Vandy outlasts LSU

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Diego Pavia threw for 160 yards and a score and ran for 86 yards and two more touchdowns as No. 17 Vanderbilt beat 10th-ranked LSU 31-24 on Saturday to snap a 10-game skid against the Tigers.

Pavia, who entered the game with odds of 150-1 to win the Heisman Trophy at ESPN BET, capped his 21-yard touchdown run at the end of the third quarter by striking a Heisman Trophy pose in the end zone.

Vanderbilt beat LSU for the first time since 1990 in what was the fourth meeting since 1947 with both schools ranked in the AP poll.

Pavia has had a passing or rushing touchdown in 25 straight games — the second-longest active streak in FBS behind FSU’s Tommy Castellanos (27). He now has 13 wins as the Vanderbilt starting quarterback. Before Pavia’s arrival, the Commodores had 12 wins total from 2019 to 2023.

The Commodores earned their second win against a top-15 ranked opponent this season — a first in program history — while improving to 6-1 for the first time since 1950. The 31 points was the third most in program history against a top-10 opponent.

The Tigers (5-2, 2-2) had some big plays, with Garrett Nussmeier throwing for 225 yards and two TDs, including a 62-yarder to Zavion Thomas. Caden Durham also had a 51-yard run down to the Vandy 2 before the Commodores forced LSU to settle for one of four field goal attempts.

“We had opportunities, we didn’t cash in on them,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said.

It wasn’t enough against a Vanderbilt offense that came in seventh in the nation averaging 43.2 points a game. The Commodores scored the most points LSU has given up this season with its defense ranked fifth in the country and allowing just 11.8 points a game.

Vanderbilt punted only twice, both times in the fourth quarter.

LSU’s best chance came after the first Vandy punt when it was trailing 31-24 with 8:55 left. Zaylin Wood sacked Nussmeier on the first play. LSU had to punt the ball back three plays later and never threatened after that.

The Tigers struggled to run against a Commodores defense that came in ranked 16th nationally. LSU settled for too many field goals by Damian Ramos, who made kicks of 48, 42 and 23 yards. He missed a 52-yarder.

After the final second ticked off, Vanderbilt started the celebration by playing “Callin’ Baton Rouge” on the stadium speakers while safely protecting both goalposts. The Commodores host No. 16 Missouri next week, while LSU visits No. 4 Texas A&M.

ESPN Research and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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World Series Drought-Buster Watch: Which MLB playoff teams could end longest runs without titles?

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World Series Drought-Buster Watch: Which MLB playoff teams could end longest runs without titles?

Editor’s note: This file originally ran on Oct. 2, 2025 with seven teams that have gone longer than 30 years without a title remaining and will be updated with teams removed as they are eliminated from the 2025 postseason

Mathematical probability, in a perfectly equitable distribution of championships, means each MLB team would win a World Series once every 30 years. That is not the world we live in, of course, so many franchises have experienced long title droughts that have stretched into multiple decades. There is even one that has never appeared in the Fall Classic.

That establishes a super fun element to this year’s postseason. We have several playoff teams who have gone longer than 30 years since their last World Series championship — including the Milwaukee Brewers, who have never won, and the Seattle Mariners, who have still never reached the World Series 48 years into their franchise history.

Maybe, just maybe, some team’s long-suffering fans will experience that euphoria of winning the final game of the season.

Yes, it’s the year of the World Series Drought-Buster Watch. Let’s look at those seven franchises, what went wrong through the years, and why this may finally be The Year.


Milwaukee Brewers

Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1969, moved to Milwaukee in 1970).

Last World Series appearance: 1982 (lost to the Cardinals in seven games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2018 NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games.

Three painful postseason moments:

  • Leading 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning in Game 7 of the 1982 World Series, the Cardinals load the bases with one out. Keith Hernandez hits a two-run single off Bob McClure and George Hendrick follows with a go-ahead single as the Cardinals go on to a 6-3 win. Brewers fans will always wonder what the outcome might have been if Hall of Fame reliever Rollie Fingers, who got injured in September, had not missed the World Series.

  • Pete Alonso‘s three-run, go-ahead home run in the ninth inning off Devin Williams in last year’s Game 3 of the wild-card series.

  • Leading the Nationals 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth of the 2019 wild-card game, Josh Hader loads the bases with a hit batter, single and walk. With two outs, Juan Soto singles to right field and rookie Trent Grisham overruns the ball, allowing all three runners to score.

Why they haven’t won: Lack of offense has led to early playoff exits.

For a long time, the Brewers were just bad. They didn’t have a winning season from 1993 to 2006. Current owner Mark Attanasio bought the team from the Selig family in 2005, however, and after a breakthrough season in 2008, the Brewers have mostly been competitive since, despite the challenges of playing in MLB’s smallest market. The Prince Fielder-Ryan Braun teams were built around offense, but the teams under managers Craig Counsell and now Pat Murphy have centered more on pitching, defense, speed and doing the little things well.

While Christian Yelich was an MVP in 2018 and runner-up in 2019, the recent teams have often lacked one true offensive star to anchor the lineup. That’s one reason the Brewers have had trouble scoring enough runs in the postseason, and that has led to losses in that 2019 wild-card game and wild-card series in 2020, 2023 and 2024. They were in the NLDS in 2021, but scored just six runs in four games, including two shutouts. Overall, the Brewers have gone 2-10 in the playoffs since 2019 entering this year and have hit just .229/.290/.351.

Why this could be the year: Even though the Brewers still don’t have that superstar hitter and rank below average in home runs, this is a deep, good offensive team. Only the Yankees and Dodgers scored more runs during the regular season. Only the Blue Jays struck out less among the playoff teams. And the Brewers do have guys who can hit home runs: Yelich has had his best power season since 2019; Brice Turang has slugged over .500 in the second half; Jackson Chourio can hit it out; and William Contreras hit nine home runs in August, so if he gets hot at the right time, he can help carry a lineup.

The Brewers also earned the No. 1 overall seed and have played well at home, with a 51-29 record. That could be a nice advantage. And even without the injured Trevor Megill, this is a strong bullpen with hard-throwing Abner Uribe capable of closing down leads. The Brewers had the best record for a reason: They’ve quieted skeptics and have remained the most consistent team all season long.


Seattle Mariners

Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1977).

Last World Series appearance: None.

Closest call: Lost the 1995 ALCS to Cleveland and the 2000 ALCS to the Yankees, both in six games. Also lost the 2001 ALCS in five games. Were up 2-1 in the 1995 ALCS against Cleveland, but a powerful Mariners lineup got shut out twice in the final three games.

Three painful postseason moments:

  • Leading 1-0 and looking to tie the 2001 ALCS against the Yankees at two games apiece, New York’s Bernie Williams ties the game with an eighth-inning home run off Arthur Rhodes, and Alfonso Soriano hits a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth off Kazuhiro Sasaki.

  • Rhodes again. In Game 6 of the 2000 ALCS, the Mariners are leading the Yankees 4-3 in the seventh when David Justice blasts a three-run homer off Rhodes and sends Yankee Stadium into a deafening roar.

  • Back in the playoffs in 2022 for the first time since 2001, the Mariners lead the Astros 7-3 in the eighth inning in the division series. Alex Bregman hits a two-run homer in the eighth. With two on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, manager Scott Servais summons starter Robbie Ray out of the bullpen to face Yordan Alvarez. Wrong decision. Alvarez blasts a game-winning three-run homer.

Why they haven’t won: Bad offenses and, for the longest time, bad drafting. And just missing the playoffs.

The Mariners couldn’t win in the mid-to-late ’90s despite a roster that featured Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez. Then came the miracle season of 2001, when they won a record 116 games with only Martinez still on the roster. Then came the long playoff drought, from 2002 to 2021. Those teams were marked mostly by inept offense: They once finished last in the AL in runs four straight seasons. In 2010, they traded for Cliff Lee and went all-in on pitching and defense. ESPN The Magazine put them on its cover. They lost 101 games.

Jerry Dipoto was hired as GM after the 2015 season and began turning things around. He drafted Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in the first round in 2018 and 2019, Cal Raleigh was a third-round pick in 2018, Bryan Woo was a sixth-round pick in 2021. The organization signed Julio Rodriguez in 2017. Since 2021, the Mariners have had five straight winning seasons and are seventh in the majors in wins — but this is only their second playoff appearance, having just missed in 2021, 2023 and 2024.

Why this could be the year: With Raleigh’s historic campaign leading the way, this is the best offense the Mariners have had in 25 years, with their highest wRC+ since 2001. Dipoto’s deadline trades for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez created one of the best one-through-nine groups in the majors. They ranked third in the majors in home runs, and Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Naylor (!) each stole 30 bases. The Mariners’ bullpen isn’t super deep, but the late-game foursome of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier has been reliable.

As that stretch of 17 wins in 18 games in September showed, the starting pitching might finally be living up to the preseason expectations following a stellar 2024 season. The concern is Woo’s health. Seattle’s best starter all season with 15 wins and a 2.97 ERA, Woo left his final start with inflammation in his pectoral muscle. The Mariners still have Gilbert, Kirby and Luis Castillo, but if the only franchise never to reach a World Series is to get there, a healthy Woo feels necessary.


Last World Series title: 1993

Last World Series appearance: 1993 (beat the Phillies in six games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2015 ALCS in six games to Kansas City. Also lost the 2016 ALCS, in five games, to Cleveland.

Three painful postseason moments:

  • Game 6 of the 2015 ALCS is tied in the eighth when Kansas City’s Lorenzo Cain draws a leadoff walk. Eric Hosmer then singles to right field with Cain heading to third, and when Jose Bautista throws the ball into second base, Cain keeps on sprinting home for the winning run in a 4-3 victory.

  • In Game 2 of that series, the Blue Jays lead 3-0 in the seventh, but manager John Gibbons leaves in a tiring David Price to give up five hits and five runs.

  • The Blue Jays blow an 8-2 lead at home in Game 2 of the 2022 wild-card series against Seattle. The winning runs come up when J.P. Crawford clears the bases with a bloop double to center field as a diving George Springer collides with Bo Bichette.

Why they haven’t won: A tough division and the bats going dry in October.

After back-to-back World Series titles in ’92 and ’93, the Blue Jays went 20 years without a playoff appearance even though they were rarely bad in that period. They just couldn’t beat the Yankees and Red Sox or, later, the Rays and Orioles. They finally broke through and won the American League East in 2015 with the Josh Donaldson/Jose Bautista team that scored 127 more runs than any other AL team. They lost to the Royals in the ALCS that year and to Cleveland in 2016 — when the Jays scored just eight runs in five games. Remember when Cleveland had to start an obscure minor leaguer named Ryan Merritt, who had started one game in the majors, in Game 5 because they had no other starters? He tossed 4⅔ shutout innings.

In recent years, the Blue Jays went 0-6 in wild-card series in 2020, 2022 and 2023, scoring three runs in 2020, getting shut out once in 2022, and scoring one run in two games against the Twins in 2023. Entering 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit .136 in six playoff games (no home runs, one RBI) and Bichette .273 with the same no home runs and one RBI.

Why this could be the year: This is a better Blue Jays club than those past three playoff teams. They have home-field advantage throughout the AL bracket and went 54-27 at home. Since May 27, only the Brewers have a better record, and they do things that work in postseason baseball: They play good defense and they had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber give them a strong 1-2 punch and rookie Trey Yesavage could be a huge secret weapon, either as a starter or reliever, despite just 14 innings in the majors. Plus, Guerrero and Bichette (if he’s healthy) are due to finally do something in October.

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