College football FPI release: Top teams, new playoff trends
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Neil Paine
The 2024 college football season will be all about big changes.
Familiar programs are going to be in very different places. The Big Ten, for example, is welcoming Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA, ending the Pac-12 as we knew it; it’s one of several realignments taking place this season. In addition, the sport will have to continue evolving the way players are compensated. And perhaps the most significant new wrinkle of them all comes on the game’s highest-profile stage: The College Football Playoff expands its field from four to 12 teams this season, giving more schools a chance to win their way to the national title.
To help make sense of everything, ESPN is releasing our 2024 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, which include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title, and of course, its probability to make the playoff and win the championship.
From the table below, many of the usual suspects are among the favorite programs to take home the national title, but there is also plenty of uncertainty:
Before we dive into more of the forecast, let’s briefly talk about how all of this works. First things first: The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game. (So that means Georgia is rated as nearly 27 points per game better than the average team, which is pretty good!)
Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times, including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams. Finally, once we have those results, we can say how often each team wins its conference, makes the playoff and achieves other milestones.
Let’s break down some of the main storylines emerging out of the FPI’s numbers ahead of the 2024 season.
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Sarkisian: Texas excited to restore rivalries with A&M, Arkansas in SEC
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian talks about the Longhorns’ move to the SEC and renewing conference rivalries with Texas A&M and Arkansas.
Two-conference domination
Georgia leads ESPN’s initial playoff predictions, making the expanded field in nearly 80% of our simulations and winning the national title a little over 20% of the time. In addition, the SEC (with a 53% chance of producing the champion) and Big Ten (32%) dominate the national title probability rankings by conference.
Among teams with at least a coin-flip’s chance of making the playoff, the Bulldogs are joined by Oregon (76%), Texas (68%), Ohio State (67%), Notre Dame (60%), Penn State (59%) and Alabama (57%). After that group, there’s a sizable drop-off to the next tier, led by Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee at 37% apiece.
How has the expanded playoff changed the shape of these odds? Overall, 18 teams currently have at least a 20% shot at making the playoff in our preseason model, as opposed to just eight going into last season.
Closer look at the all-important bye
While making the playoff might be a certainty for more top programs this season, merely qualifying isn’t enough anymore. It remains significant to finish among the four highest-ranked conference champs on the committee’s list, and thus earn the all-important bye into the second round of the bracket. Those teams will still need to win three games to capture the title (rather than two under the previous CFP format), but it’s still better than having to win four.
Here are the teams with the best odds of securing that first-round bye:
Interestingly, Oregon ranks highest in the country here — ahead of Georgia. That’s a result of several factors: the Ducks’ comparatively high chance of going undefeated (16%) against their new Big Ten schedule, and the fact that they have the best odds of winning their conference among power-conference schools (37%). Both are good ingredients to end up in the top four.
On a related note: Sorry, Notre Dame, but your team is not allowed to get a bye; only conference champions are eligible. But with 60% odds, the Irish are far and away the most probable playoff team outside the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. We will also get to see at least one non-power-conference team make the playoff this year, as a fifth conference champ is guaranteed a spot in the field.
Here are the odds for each Group of 5 conference to send at least one team to the playoff:
Florida and Washington moving in opposite directions?
Despite the importance of the new format, however, the 2024 season will still be determined by the elite players and programs. In terms of pure talent, Georgia is projected to easily rank No. 1 in the FPI — sitting roughly 2.3 points per game better than No. 2 Oregon — on the strength of the nation’s No. 2 projected offense and No. 3 defense. Five teams are projected to be at least three touchdowns better than the average FBS team: Georgia (plus-26.8), Oregon (24.5), Texas (22.9), Ohio State (22.2) and Alabama (21.9).
Some schools have risen up the ranks since the end of last season. Florida is up from 41st to 20th on the strength of 15 returning starters and a strong showing in the transfer portal. Auburn and Kansas have also leapt into the top 20 after finishing further down the list last season. Tennessee’s ranking more closely resembles that of its 2022 breakout campaign than 2023, when they came back to Earth, while Texas is projected for its highest FPI finish (No. 3) since it made the BCS championship game in 2009. Meanwhile, USC is projected to hold steady at 18th despite losing quarterback Caleb Williams, this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick by the Chicago Bears.
In addition, the FPI projections are down on both of 2023’s championship game contestants. Washington has slipped to 31st, and defending champ Michigan is down to 12th, after each school lost its head coach — Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama and Jim Harbaugh went to the Los Angeles Chargers, respectively — as well as its starting QB and most of its starters. How much both programs can reload will be a big storyline to watch this season. And one other notable dip belongs to Kansas State, which falls from 11th to 22nd.
Here’s this year’s projected FPI top 20:
Can’t forget about Deion’s Buffaloes
Where do Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes land in our ratings? They’re 36th, with a 16th-place ranking on offense with Shedeur Sanders returning at quarterback (along with a bunch of new transfers, as we’ve come to expect from this program).
Along with a season forecast of 6.3 wins, that might not be to Sanders’ liking — but by rising from 77th in the FPI in 2023, the Buffaloes are projected to be the second-most-improved team in the FBS, trailing only Stanford (who’s up from 106th to 59th).
Colorado should benefit from a slightly easier schedule in 2024 — the Buffaloes rank 45th in projected FPI schedule strength, versus 39th a year ago — and its scoring differential indicated a team slightly better than its record last season, both signs that point to continued improvement in Boulder.
But if the Buffaloes are going to really make the most of their potential, they’ll have to win on Sept. 28 at UCF, on Oct. 18 at Arizona and, most importantly, at Kansas on Nov. 23. According to the FPI, those are the three games that swing Colorado’s odds of making the playoff most. Lose any of them, and Colorado has very little chance to make the bracket as an at-large or (more likely) a conference winner out of the Big 12.
Mark ’em down: Biggest games of 2024
Along those same lines, let’s look at the best and most important games of the season, according to the FPI. There are a few ways to quantify this, starting with simply looking at the combined ratings of both schools in a particular contest. By that measure, these are the 20 biggest games on the 2024 schedule:
But there’s also another way of looking at the top games, based on how much they affect the postseason picture. Our simulations have a cool feature called “leverage,” which measures the average change in probability (whether that be national title odds, playoff odds, conference title odds, etc.) for both teams depending on whether they win or lose a given game.
Here are the 2024 games that have the highest leverage in terms of who makes the CFP:
Both rankings are mostly filled with games from the SEC and Big Ten, with a few Notre Dame games, some nonconference tilts and a Week 6 Clemson-FSU matchup in the ACC.
One consequence of the expanded bracket is that fewer games feature huge leverage ratings for both teams’ chances of making the playoff, since more of the top teams have better playoff odds than ever before. But at the same time, realignment has given fans more in-conference battles on these lists, which matter a great deal toward a team’s odds of winning the conference, and thereby potentially securing one of the top four seeds.
That means any fears that playoff expansion would dilute the importance of the regular season might be overblown. There is still plenty to play for across the country each week, and our FPI rankings and projections will help you stay on top of it all.
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Greg Wyshynski
The Edmonton Oilers finally addressed their multiple-season problem in goal by acquiring Pittsburgh Penguins netminder Tristan Jarry on Friday.
The Oilers sent goalie Stuart Skinner, defenseman Brett Kulak and a 2029 second-round pick to Pittsburgh for Jarry and forward Sam Poulin.
Edmonton also made another trade Friday, sending a 2027 third-round pick to the Nashville Predators for defenseman Spencer Stastney.
Jarry, 30, is in his 10th NHL season, all with the Penguins. He had helped Pittsburgh to a surprising start that put it in a playoff seed through Thursday’s games. He was 9-3-1 in 14 games with Pittsburgh this season with a .909 save percentage and a 2.66 goals-against average with one shutout. MoneyPuck had him at 9.8 goals saved above expected.
Edmonton has the second-worst team save percentage in the NHL this season (.873). The Oilers have appeared in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, losing both times to the Florida Panthers. Each run has been plagued by goaltending inconsistency, with Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard unable to provide championship-caliber stability. The Oilers would have preferred adding a veteran goalie to a tandem with Skinner, but that would have been a challenge under the salary cap.
Jarry is signed through the 2027-28 season with a $5.375 million cap hit.
Skinner is signed through this season, and his contract carries an average annual value of $2.6 million. Kulak is also signed through 2025-26, and his contract carries an average annual value of $2.75 million. Both are set to be unrestricted free agents next summer.
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Sean Allen
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Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
- Sean Allen is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. He was the 2008 and 2009 FSWA Hockey Writer of the Year.
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Special to ESPN.com
- Victoria Matiash is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. Victoria has been a part of the fantasy team since 2010.
Another week of the 2025-26 NHL season, another week on top of the ESPN NHL Power Rankings for the Colorado Avalanche. However, unlike in weeks past, the Avs were not a unanimous selection at No. 1 in our poll.
Beyond No. 1, the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs rose in the rankings, while the Minnesota Wild, New Jersey Devils and Ottawa Senators took a tumble from last week.
Plus, along with the new set of rankings, we’ve tapped ESPN fantasy hockey analysts Sean Allen (Eastern Conference) and Victoria Matiash (Western Conference) to advise managers on whether to keep or drop one specific player on each club. And a reminder: It’s not too late to join ESPN Fantasy Hockey, with new leagues starting every Monday.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Dec. 5. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 82.3%
Valeri Nichushkin, RW (rostered in 30.2% of ESPN leagues): When healthy — as he is again after losing eight games to a lower-body injury — the Avalanche forward serves as a formidable, well-rounded fantasy producer. Savvier managers know how to settle into the cycle of getting the most out of Nichushkin when fit, then tucking him on IR when not. Wash, rinse, repeat. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Dec. 13), @ SEA (Dec. 16)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.4%
Matt Duchene, C/LW (rostered in 36.7%): Let’s give him a minute. After losing 24 contests to a concussion, the veteran forward is still getting back up to speed. But it shouldn’t be long before Duchene starts contributing nearer last year’s pace, which netted 30 goals and 82 points. With Tyler Seguin out for the year, the Stars are certainly hoping for as much. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. FLA (Dec. 13), vs. LA (Dec. 15), @ SJ (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 64.5%
Dylan Strome, C (rostered in 77.8%): Alex Ovechkin is hitting his midseason stride, and Strome moves with him. Over 80% of Ovechkin’s even-strength minutes come alongside his buddy, giving Strome a steady pipeline to production. Hang tight and the results should follow. Patience.
Next seven days: @ WPG (Dec. 13), @ MIN (Dec. 16), vs. TOR (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 62.9%
Frank Vatrano, RW/LW (rostered in 51.6%): This isn’t the 2023-24 Ducks, with whom Vatrano scored an unprecedented 37 goals on 272 shots. Now settled into the bottom six, the winger is only three goals to the good (one assist) and skating fewer than 13 minutes per game. Panic
Next seven days: @ NJ (Dec. 13), @ NYR (Dec. 15), @ CBJ (Dec. 16)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 66.7%
Andrei Svechnikov, LW (rostered in 58.9%): His shooting percentage is down, but bad luck doesn’t explain why he’s averaging just 16:30 per game. Still, he’s riding with one of the league’s stronger lines (64.8% shot attempt share) and four of his seven goals have come on the power play. Patience, but it’s thinning.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Dec. 13), vs. PHI (Dec. 14), @ NSH (Dec. 17)
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Andrei Svechnikov nets power-play goal
Andrei Svechnikov capitalizes on the power play
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 65%
Noah Hanifin, D (rostered in 49.7): Despite a quiet start to 2025-26 — losing October to injury didn’t help — Hanifin’s fantasy résumé is too respectable to ignore in deeper competition. This is a 40-point player with Vegas who has only six to show for his first 19 games. Fortunately, logging hefty minutes at even-strength and on the power play, the defenseman already appears to be turning a productive corner. Patience.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Dec. 13), vs. NJ (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 61.3%
Brayden Point, C (rostered in 85.5%): Based on his career body of work, Point deserves more time. The Lightning will keep giving him chances to lift his current 1.12 FPPG back toward the 2.45 he has averaged over the past three seasons. Patience.
Next seven days: @ NYI (Dec. 13), vs. FLA (Dec. 15), vs. LA (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 62.9%
Marco Rossi, C (rostered in 49.7%): The lingering injury is becoming a bigger bother as plans to have Rossi travel out west on a recent road trip were seemingly scuttled last minute. Reports that he doesn’t look altogether comfortable on the ice are equally disheartening. Outside of fantasy leagues that accommodate for an excess of IR spots, the young center has no role to play right now. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Dec. 13), vs. BOS (Dec. 14), vs. WSH (Dec. 16), @ CBJ (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 62.1%
Matvei Michkov, RW (rostered in 67.6%): The Flyers’ offense retooled around Trevor Zegras as its focal point. Michkov has only four power-play points and is fourth on his own team in shots on goal. He’ll come around as a fantasy star, but not yet. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Dec. 13), @ CAR (Dec. 14), @ MTL (Dec. 16), @ BUF (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 60.3%
Kris Letang, D (rostered in 81.1%): Even with Evgeni Malkin resurging and Sidney Crosby still strong, Letang isn’t the fantasy force his name implies. Erik Karlsson dominates the power play, limiting Letang’s minutes. He’s still effective as a quarterback, but the reduced ice time curbs his upside. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Dec. 13), vs. UTA (Dec. 14), vs. EDM (Dec. 16), @ OTT (Dec. 18)
1:20
Kris Letang’s OT winner completes comeback for Penguins
Kris Letang slots in the winning goal to lift the Penguins to a 4-3 victory over the Blue Jackets in overtime.
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 60.9%
Anders Lee, LW (rostered in 58.9%): Last season looked like the start of Lee’s decline as a fantasy player, and this year hasn’t changed the trajectory. Even with two injuries on the top power-play unit, the Isles still didn’t turn to him in recent games. That says plenty. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. TB (Dec. 13), @ DET (Dec. 16)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 60%
Quinton Byfield, C (rostered in 50.6%): The second-line center isn’t shooting on net habitually enough. So, no small wonder he isn’t scoring. Fantasy managers can be asked to invest in a player’s talent and potential for only so long. At some point, the hard numbers need to be there. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CGY (Dec. 13), @ DAL (Dec. 15), @ FLA (Dec. 17), @ TB (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 59.4%
Charlie McAvoy, D (rostered in 85.5%): Not ideal to be in this situation for a second straight season, but McAvoy’s on the mend after taking a puck to the face in November. The Bruins’ power play was elite with him and should pick up where it left off when he’s back. Patience.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Dec. 14), vs. UTA (Dec. 16), vs. EDM (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 57.8%
Patrick Kane, RW (rostered in 50.6%): This comes down to expectations. If you’re not waiting for vintage Kane, there’s still solid value here on a strong Red Wings attack and power play. He’s trending up too, leading Detroit in shots on goal in recent weeks. Patience.
Next seven days: @ CHI (Dec. 13), vs. NYI (Dec. 16), vs. UTA (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 56.5%
Dougie Hamilton, D (rostered in 74.2%): Luke Hughes was already a threat to take over the top power-play spot, and now Simon Nemec is rising. The advantage has always been Hamilton’s pathway to fantasy upside, so if he’s pushed aside, the ceiling drops fast. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. ANA (Dec. 13), vs. VAN (Dec. 14), @ VGK (Dec. 17)
0:18
Simon Nemec scores OT winner for Devils
Simon Nemec buries the game-winning goal in overtime to lift New Jersey to victory.
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 55%
Anthony Stolarz/Joseph Woll, G (rostered in 52.9%/26.4%): The Leafs are the same team that made these goalies fantasy staples despite a strict timeshare last season. Injuries and missed time have defined the start, but both will eventually be healthy together. Expect a strong second half once they’re back in sync. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Dec. 13), vs. CHI (Dec. 16), @ WSH (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 53.3%
Sam Bennett, C (rostered in 60.3%): A slow start looked like a Conn Smythe hangover, but Bennett has snapped out of it. He’s been running at a point-per-game pace since mid-November and looks back on track. Patience.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 13), @ TB (Dec. 15), vs. LA (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 53.1%
J.T. Miller, C (rostered in 88.4%): It’s tempting to stay calm after his strong post-trade run last year — 2.44 FPPG in 32 games — but his even-strength play has cratered. Across nine line combos he has logged 20-plus minutes with, the Rangers have been outscored 13-7 at 5-on-5. That’s a big red flag. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Dec. 13), vs. ANA (Dec. 15), vs. VAN (Dec. 16), @ STL (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 58.3%
Ivan Demidov, RW (rostered in 50.6%): Long-term patience is fine, but this season he doesn’t have the role to justify a roster spot. Zack Bolduc cuts into his power-play time, and injuries have left Montreal’s offense too top-heavy for Demidov to gain traction. Panic.
Next seven days: @ NYR (Dec. 13), vs. EDM (Dec. 14), vs. PHI (Dec. 16), vs. CHI (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 54.8%
Darnell Nurse, D (rostered in 90.5%): A much bigger issue when the scoring isn’t there either, the Oilers defender isn’t blocking shots as frequently either. Heading into Thursday’s tilt against Detroit, Nurse has two goals and a single assist to show for 18 games. Far less popular in fantasy play, fellow defender Mattias Ekholm is providing much greater value. Panic.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Dec. 13), @ MTL (Dec. 14), @ PIT (Dec. 16), @ BOS (Dec. 18)
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Darnell Nurse nets goal for Oilers
Darnell Nurse tallies goal vs. Capitals
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 51.6%
Sean Monahan, C (rostered in 17.2%): Monahan opened strong as the No. 1 center with Kirill Marchenko, but that window closed fast once Adam Fantilli vaulted up the lineup. Nothing suggests Fantilli will give that spot back anytime soon, leaving Monahan anchored to the second line with limited upside. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Dec. 13), vs. ANA (Dec. 16), vs. MIN (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 48.4%
Nick Schmaltz, RW/C (rostered in 85.1%): Here we go. After a dismal stretch that ate up the second half of November, Schmaltz appears back in rhythm with a goal and three assists in five contests. Competing on a top line and power play with Clayton Keller, the streaky center tends to produce with gusto once back in groove. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. SEA (Dec. 12), @ PIT (Dec. 14), @ BOS (Dec. 16), @ DET (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 53.3%
Linus Ullmark, G (rostered in 43.4%): Ullmark has been extreme, with seven games above 4.0 fantasy points, four below -6.0. He leads the league in blowups and power-play goals allowed, which may be connected. Still, a penalty-kill fix is doable, so there’s hope if you can hold on. Patience, for a little longer.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Dec. 13), @ WPG (Dec. 15), vs. PIT (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 53.3%
Ryan Donato, RW (rostered in 25.7%): Averaging a sniff more than 13 minutes per game in December, the bottom-six skater has two goals (zero assists) in his past 14 contests. October’s exciting run of six goals in six matches feels like a long time ago now. Panic.
Next seven days: @ STL (Dec. 12), vs. DET (Dec. 13), @ TOR (Dec. 16), @ MTL (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 53.6%
Joey Daccord, G (rostered in 73.3%): While Wednesday’s victory over the Kings was indeed impressive, one that hardly makes up for the negative fantasy integers accrued in Daccord’s previous four outings. Seattle’s No. 1 — a solid netminder when provided with proper support — should be jettisoned until the Kraken embark on another unexpected successful run, as is their routine. Panic.
Next seven days: @ UTA (Dec. 12), vs. BUF (Dec. 14), vs. COL (Dec. 16), @ CGY (Dec. 18)
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Joey Daccord makes beautiful save
Joey Daccord makes beautiful save
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.6%
Yaroslav Askarov, G (rostered in 30.8%): No question, there will continue to be bumps along the way for Askarov and the rest of Ryan Warsovky’s charges. But, led by their young Hart candidate up front, this Sharks squad is a team on the rise. After an ugly October, Askarov is 9-4-0, with a .930 SV% and 2.36 GAA through 13 contests. He boasts enduring value in deeper fantasy competition. Patience.
Next seven days: @ PIT (Dec. 13), vs. CGY (Dec. 16), vs. DAL (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 48.3%
Neal Pionk, D (rostered in 63.6%): Outside of the Jets’ top line and defenseman Josh Morrissey, no one is scoring much at all in Winnipeg this season, including the club’s No. 2-ranked fantasy defender. And Pionk isn’t blocking enough shots to otherwise merit rostering. There are likely better blueline options available elsewhere. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Dec. 13), vs. OTT (Dec. 15), @ STL (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 48.4%
Rasmus Dahlin, D (rostered in 96.6%): He’s well off last season’s pace — and off his elite 2.52 FPPG from the prior three years — but the Sabres’ power play has more success with Josh Norris back. You were always giving Dahlin time anyway, so this is an easy call. Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Dec. 14), vs. PHI (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 45.3%
Jordan Kyrou, RW (rostered in 71.7%): Even before falling injured, the points weren’t adding up as usual. As Blues beat reporter Andy Strickland put it, while Kyrou had been playing reasonably well, he just wasn’t scoring. Which is more useful to a real-life hockey squad than one competing in the fantasy sphere. And now the winger is out week-to-week. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Dec. 12), vs. NSH (Dec. 15), vs. WPG (Dec. 17), vs. NYR (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 43.8%
Jonathan Huberdeau, LW (rostered in 43.3%): Admittedly, fantasy loyalty in this case is becoming more and more difficult to justify. But Huberdeau is still skating on Calgary’s top line and power play. Plus, he has found the back of the net twice in the past week. Just until the new year, maybe. Limited patience.
Next seven days: @ LA (Dec. 13), @ SJ (Dec. 16), vs. SEA (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 46.7%
Jonathan Marchessault, RW (rostered in 53.4%): Enough is enough. Despite a mild uptick in offense of late, Marchessault is providing too little, too late into his disastrous tenure with the Predators. Now he isn’t even competing on a line with Filip Forsberg anymore. Fantasy managers can always give the veteran winger a fresh look if or when he’s traded elsewhere. Panic.
Next seven days: @ COL (Dec. 13), @ STL (Dec. 15), vs. CAR (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 40.3%
Kiefer Sherwood, LW/RW (rostered in 78.3%): As anticipated, the goal-scoring has dried up. Rocking a highly unsustainable 31.6 S%, Sherwood scored 12 in his first 20 games, followed by zero in his subsequent 10 contests. Outside of fantasy leagues that reward hits at an ultra-premium, the physical forward is replaceable. Panic.
Next seven days: @ NJ (Dec. 14), @ NYR (Dec. 16)
1:34
Which teams are the best fit for Quinn Hughes?
Greg Wyshynski details all the teams that make sense in a potential trade for Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes.
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Alden Gonzalez
ORLANDO, Fla. — If there’s one team willing and able to give outfielder Kyle Tucker the $400 million he seeks in free agency, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays, according to many of the agents, executives and managers at baseball’s annual winter meetings this week. And if there’s one team with the capability to both trade for and extend Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, according to insiders, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Less than six weeks after engaging in one of the most thrilling, tightly contested World Series in recent memory, the Blue Jays and Dodgers reside at the center of an offseason expected to brim with activity over the next week, embedded in the sport’s subconscious once again.
The Blue Jays have already landed arguably the best free agent pitcher, signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, and are poised to hand out another nine-figure deal in their pursuit of a bat. The Dodgers signed the most decorated closer in free agency, agreeing to terms on a three-year, $69 million deal with Edwin Diaz, and have the resources to pull off this offseason’s biggest trade, in whichever form it takes. The Blue Jays ultimately might not land Tucker. The Dodgers — in search of an outfielder and also interested in Tucker, though only on a short-term deal — might not get Skubal. But their presence is stark at a time when so many big-market owners seem unwilling to spend.
The Chicago Cubs need an assortment of pitching but are wary of the luxury-tax threshold; the Houston Astros desperately need to replace free agent Framber Valdez in the rotation but will probably have to do so via trade; the San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers are looking to cut costs once again; the San Francisco Giants are expected to act conservatively; and though the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and New York Mets could all sign at least one major free agent position player this offseason, they’ve all been operating in more budget-conscious ways than their fans are used to.
A free agent pool defined more so by its depth than by its star power is certainly a factor. But two agents who spoke to ESPN this week said some teams have told them they’re not acting aggressively in free agency because of labor issues they believe will lead to a lockout next December and could alter the economics of the sport significantly. The continued deterioration of local TV deals is just as big of a factor, if not more so, league and team sources have said. And yet the Blue Jays and Dodgers appear to exist outside of those concerns, which probably shouldn’t come as a surprise.
The Blue Jays are backed by Rogers Communications, one of Canada’s largest media conglomerates. The Dodgers, further bolstered by the vast revenue streams generated by Shohei Ohtani, have what many consider the most lucrative and most stable local-media contract in the industry.
They might be on another collision course.
IF YOU WANT to get a sense for how things have changed financially for the Dodgers since signing Ohtani 24 months ago, look no further than the relievers. At the start of 2025, the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million deal, the type of massive commitment for a volatile position group that Andrew Friedman, now in his 12th year as president of baseball operations, had spent his entire career avoiding. Scott flamed out tremendously in his first year in L.A., and yet Friedman went to the well again on Tuesday, addressing the Dodgers’ ninth-inning need by rewarding Díaz with the highest average annual value ever for a reliever.
It’s ultimately not complicated: Dodgers owner Mark Walter is willing to spend whatever it takes, and his lieutenants are happy to oblige.
“We are in a really strong position right now, financially, and our ownership group has been incredibly supportive of pouring that back into our team and that partnership with our fans,” Friedman said.
“As we look at things, if we were on a really tight budget, we probably wouldn’t allocate in the same way. But having more resources, it allows us to be a little bit more aggressive on that point. In a world where there are major constraints, that wouldn’t be an area where I personally would allocate versus other areas. But we’re in a really fortunate position right now, and we have a really talented team going into 2026. We’re going to do everything we can to put ourselves in the best position to win a World Series.”
Díaz followed Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and Scott — all considered among the best players available at their respective positions over the past three offseasons, all acquired by the Dodgers. The team’s competitive-balance-tax payroll finished at roughly $415 million in 2025, a whopping $70 million more than the second-place Mets. The Díaz deal all but ensures they’ll once again blow past Major League Baseball’s highest threshold in 2026.
The Dodgers are interested in bringing Enrique Hernandez back, sources said, and would prefer to trade from their surplus of outfield prospects to augment their lineup, with bat-to-ball specialists like Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan and St. Louis Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan seen as ideal fits. In other words, they can very easily just go the straightforward route. Or, as they aggressively pursue a three-peat, they can pounce on Tucker with another short-term, high-AAV deal, or use their vast starting-pitching depth — including, perhaps, Glasnow, whose name has been thrown around — to get Skubal. They might even do both.
In the words of one rival executive: “You can never rule anything out with them.”
TUCKER MAKES HIS offseason home in Tampa, Florida, 25 miles from the Blue Jays’ spring training headquarters in Dunedin. Visiting the complex of one of his most aggressive suitors is a no-brainer as Tucker navigates his first free agency. And yet reports of him being spotted there last week raised eyebrows — not just from Blue Jays fans still recovering from a deflating World Series loss, but from industry insiders who recognize the type of game changer that place can be.
A facility alone won’t singlehandedly sway a top-tier free agent, of course, but if there’s one capable of doing so, the Blue Jays’ sprawling, state-of-the art spring training home is it.
As one agent said, “It’s sick.”
But it’s also not new. The Blue Jays have boasted arguably the most advanced complex in baseball ever since an $80 million renovation was completed five years ago. The city of Toronto, meanwhile, has always been held in high regard. Their fans have always been passionate. But over these past eight months, during which Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a $500 million extension and led a World Series run that captivated an entire country, players’ perceptions of them have shifted dramatically.
“You’re on Zoom calls with high-profile players that are speaking very, very highly of the organization, the facilities, the players that are on the team and how they conduct themselves,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “That’s been a shift. I feel like in years past, with some high-profile players, it’s kind of been us selling us to them, whereas now I think the players know what they’re getting into as soon as they start talking to us.”
For so long, the Blue Jays were the team left at the altar. Inspired runs at Juan Soto, Ohtani and Sasaki led only to heartbreak. Now the expectation is that players are finally going to take their money. It started with Guerrero’s extension in April, then Cease and fellow starter Cody Ponce in free agency earlier this month. But the Blue Jays are also expected to add a bona fide late-inning reliever, and several agents and rival execs view them as the favorites for either Tucker or Bichette — or potentially both.
Their march to the World Series made them a legitimate landing spot for players who long to win and cast new light on a stretch previously marked by three playoff appearances and zero victories. It has also highlighted their most appealing traits.
Schneider’s popularity with players is one of them. Canada’s fervor for the Blue Jays, which became the country’s lone major league franchise when the Montreal Expos left, is another. Their facilities — a sprawling campus in Dunedin and a state-of-the-art weight room in Toronto, all designed to make them a destination spot — are yet another.
Most notable of all, though, is their money.
It might finally be making a difference.
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