Familiar programs are going to be in very different places. The Big Ten, for example, is welcoming Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA, ending the Pac-12 as we knew it; it’s one of several realignments taking place this season. In addition, the sport will have to continue evolving the way players are compensated. And perhaps the most significant new wrinkle of them all comes on the game’s highest-profile stage: The College Football Playoff expands its field from four to 12 teams this season, giving more schools a chance to win their way to the national title.
To help make sense of everything, ESPN is releasing our 2024 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, which include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title, and of course, its probability to make the playoff and win the championship.
From the table below, many of the usual suspects are among the favorite programs to take home the national title, but there is also plenty of uncertainty:
Before we dive into more of the forecast, let’s briefly talk about how all of this works. First things first: The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game. (So that means Georgia is rated as nearly 27 points per game better than the average team, which is pretty good!)
Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times, including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams. Finally, once we have those results, we can say how often each team wins its conference, makes the playoff and achieves other milestones.
Sarkisian: Texas excited to restore rivalries with A&M, Arkansas in SEC
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian talks about the Longhorns’ move to the SEC and renewing conference rivalries with Texas A&M and Arkansas.
Two-conference domination
Georgia leads ESPN’s initial playoff predictions, making the expanded field in nearly 80% of our simulations and winning the national title a little over 20% of the time. In addition, the SEC (with a 53% chance of producing the champion) and Big Ten (32%) dominate the national title probability rankings by conference.
Among teams with at least a coin-flip’s chance of making the playoff, the Bulldogs are joined by Oregon (76%), Texas (68%), Ohio State (67%), Notre Dame (60%), Penn State (59%) and Alabama (57%). After that group, there’s a sizable drop-off to the next tier, led by Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee at 37% apiece.
How has the expanded playoff changed the shape of these odds? Overall, 18 teams currently have at least a 20% shot at making the playoff in our preseason model, as opposed to just eight going into last season.
Closer look at the all-important bye
While making the playoff might be a certainty for more top programs this season, merely qualifying isn’t enough anymore. It remains significant to finish among the four highest-ranked conference champs on the committee’s list, and thus earn the all-important bye into the second round of the bracket. Those teams will still need to win three games to capture the title (rather than two under the previous CFP format), but it’s still better than having to win four.
Here are the teams with the best odds of securing that first-round bye:
Interestingly, Oregon ranks highest in the country here — ahead of Georgia. That’s a result of several factors: the Ducks’ comparatively high chance of going undefeated (16%) against their new Big Ten schedule, and the fact that they have the best odds of winning their conference among power-conference schools (37%). Both are good ingredients to end up in the top four.
On a related note: Sorry, Notre Dame, but your team is not allowed to get a bye; only conference champions are eligible. But with 60% odds, the Irish are far and away the most probable playoff team outside the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. We will also get to see at least one non-power-conference team make the playoff this year, as a fifth conference champ is guaranteed a spot in the field.
Here are the odds for each Group of 5 conference to send at least one team to the playoff:
Florida and Washington moving in opposite directions?
Despite the importance of the new format, however, the 2024 season will still be determined by the elite players and programs. In terms of pure talent, Georgia is projected to easily rank No. 1 in the FPI — sitting roughly 2.3 points per game better than No. 2 Oregon — on the strength of the nation’s No. 2 projected offense and No. 3 defense. Five teams are projected to be at least three touchdowns better than the average FBS team: Georgia (plus-26.8), Oregon (24.5), Texas (22.9), Ohio State (22.2) and Alabama (21.9).
Some schools have risen up the ranks since the end of last season. Florida is up from 41st to 20th on the strength of 15 returning starters and a strong showing in the transfer portal. Auburn and Kansas have also leapt into the top 20 after finishing further down the list last season. Tennessee’s ranking more closely resembles that of its 2022 breakout campaign than 2023, when they came back to Earth, while Texas is projected for its highest FPI finish (No. 3) since it made the BCS championship game in 2009. Meanwhile, USC is projected to hold steady at 18th despite losing quarterback Caleb Williams, this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick by the Chicago Bears.
In addition, the FPI projections are down on both of 2023’s championship game contestants. Washington has slipped to 31st, and defending champ Michigan is down to 12th, after each school lost its head coach — Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama and Jim Harbaugh went to the Los Angeles Chargers, respectively — as well as its starting QB and most of its starters. How much both programs can reload will be a big storyline to watch this season. And one other notable dip belongs to Kansas State, which falls from 11th to 22nd.
Here’s this year’s projected FPI top 20:
Can’t forget about Deion’s Buffaloes
Where do Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes land in our ratings? They’re 36th, with a 16th-place ranking on offense with Shedeur Sanders returning at quarterback (along with a bunch of new transfers, as we’ve come to expect from this program).
Along with a season forecast of 6.3 wins, that might not be to Sanders’ liking — but by rising from 77th in the FPI in 2023, the Buffaloes are projected to be the second-most-improved team in the FBS, trailing only Stanford (who’s up from 106th to 59th).
Colorado should benefit from a slightly easier schedule in 2024 — the Buffaloes rank 45th in projected FPI schedule strength, versus 39th a year ago — and its scoring differential indicated a team slightly better than its record last season, both signs that point to continued improvement in Boulder.
But if the Buffaloes are going to really make the most of their potential, they’ll have to win on Sept. 28 at UCF, on Oct. 18 at Arizona and, most importantly, at Kansas on Nov. 23. According to the FPI, those are the three games that swing Colorado’s odds of making the playoff most. Lose any of them, and Colorado has very little chance to make the bracket as an at-large or (more likely) a conference winner out of the Big 12.
Mark ’em down: Biggest games of 2024
Along those same lines, let’s look at the best and most important games of the season, according to the FPI. There are a few ways to quantify this, starting with simply looking at the combined ratings of both schools in a particular contest. By that measure, these are the 20 biggest games on the 2024 schedule:
But there’s also another way of looking at the top games, based on how much they affect the postseason picture. Our simulations have a cool feature called “leverage,” which measures the average change in probability (whether that be national title odds, playoff odds, conference title odds, etc.) for both teams depending on whether they win or lose a given game.
Here are the 2024 games that have the highest leverage in terms of who makes the CFP:
Both rankings are mostly filled with games from the SEC and Big Ten, with a few Notre Dame games, some nonconference tilts and a Week 6 Clemson-FSU matchup in the ACC.
One consequence of the expanded bracket is that fewer games feature huge leverage ratings for both teams’ chances of making the playoff, since more of the top teams have better playoff odds than ever before. But at the same time, realignment has given fans more in-conference battles on these lists, which matter a great deal toward a team’s odds of winning the conference, and thereby potentially securing one of the top four seeds.
That means any fears that playoff expansion would dilute the importance of the regular season might be overblown. There is still plenty to play for across the country each week, and our FPI rankings and projections will help you stay on top of it all.
Florida has fired coach Billy Napier with the Gators off to a 3-4 start this season, a source told ESPN amid multiple reports.
Napier, 46, finishes his time at Florida with a 22-23 record in four seasons.
The Gators have a bye this week before playing Georgia on Nov. 1.
Votes of confidence, which Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin gave to Napier at midseason last year, are often bad signs for coaches. But Napier validated his with how Florida finished last season, one that once appeared like his last in Gainesville. Napier navigated a brutal schedule, ending with wins over LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and Tulane in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl. And with a top 10 recruiting class in tow, the Gators opened 2025 with a Top 25 ranking and a swamp full of optimism.
But a disheartening loss to South Florida in Gainesville in Week 2 quickly thrust Napier right back onto the hot seat, with Florida’s athletic department and boosters knowing full well that opponents — much tougher than the in-state Bulls — were ahead on the SEC trail for Florida. Most around college football thought Florida would lose some games this season. What they didn’t think was the South Florida game might be one of them.
The Gators struggled to bounce back from that home defeat. A week later, in the SEC opener vs. LSU, penalties and turnovers ruled the day, as the Gators fell, 20-10, to the Tigers in Baton Rouge. The following week, Florida was limited to just seven first downs in a 26-7 loss at Miami, a game that included an 0-13 effort on third downs.
A rousing 29-21 win over Texas at home on Oct. 4 quieted the critics for a week in Gainesville, but last week, that momentum floated away when the Gators were handled by Texas A&M 34-17 in College Station in front of a primetime audience. And on Saturday, in front of a grouchy home crowd at The Swamp, where fans loudly chanted “Fire Billy!,” Florida narrowly squeaked by Mississippi State, 23-21.
“I think I’m built for it; I’m made for it,” Napier said Saturday when asked about his job status. “I chose the coaching profession; I was called to coach. The good comes with the bad. The bad comes with the good. The game’s about the players, and I’m proud of the way they played.”
“I love the game of football,” he added, choking back tears. “I love the game.”
There was a thought that — with a top-tier quarterback in DJ Lagway and some success in the transfer portal — Napier had some additional runway this season as the Gators chased their first bid into the College Football Playoff. There was also the matter of whopping buyout total — an eye-popping at $20.4 million — with no offset or mitigation on the deal. But as the losses piled up, and with rivals like Georgia and Miami having top-10 seasons, the breaking point was reached in Gainesville.
Florida hired Napier in 2021 after he went 40-12 in four seasons as Louisiana’s coach.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, trying to salvage what’s left of this season after Saturday’s loss to SMU, said there is “no quit” in his team and touted his “credibility” after 18 years at the school.
The Tigers, who started the season with a No. 4 ranking and national championship aspirations, fell to 3-4 with their 35-24 home loss to the Mustangs.
“We hopefully have earned a lot of credibility around here,” said Swinney, who has won two national championships and nine ACC titles in his time at Clemson. “There’s been a lot of great years, a lot of great years. But this is a tough one.
“We’re going to try to fight our way and finish this thing the very best that we can. And then we’ll start over just like we do every year. You know, that’s what we do every year. We have a great year, we have a tough year, you know, we start over and then you go back to work.”
Clemson has had only one losing season since 1998, when the Tigers were 3-8 under Tommy West. That came in 2010, when Swinney and the Tigers finished 6-7 after losing in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
The loss to SMU on Saturday was the Tigers’ fifth straight against power conference teams — the first time that’s happened at Clemson since the 1970-71 seasons.
“I take the good with the bad,” Swinney said. “I don’t like it, but that’s just my perspective. And I know something good will come from it. I promise you, though, I’ve never worked harder. And I’m going to continue to do everything I can, and we’ll be back.
“We’ll win more championships. We’ll win more championships. All right? I promise you that. May not happen this year, but we’re going to win more championships. That’s all I can say. And I think we have a track record that demonstrates that.”
Swinney, who has an 183-51 overall record, is in the midst of a 10-year, $115 million extension and would command a $60 million buyout if the program were to make a change. He understands fans’ frustrations and wants to fix it.
“I don’t blame them [fans]. I’m disappointed too. We’re all disappointed. We’re incredibly frustrated,” Swinney said. “But that’s where we are, and I take full responsibility for that. But all I can do is keep working and see if we can find a way to win the next game.
“… We got to pick ourselves up and keep going. That’s what we’re going to do. There ain’t no quit in this bunch. That’s one thing I’ll say about this team. It hurts, but there’s no quit. We’re going to fight our butts off to the end. And then we’ll count them all up, and then we’ll — you know, it’s a season. And right now it’s not been anywhere near the season that we want.”
Clemson, which played SMU without first-team preseason All-America quarterback Cade Klubnik (ankle), was outgained 139-35 on the ground by the Mustangs. Christopher Vizzina made his first start Saturday, but Swinney expects Klubnik to return after the bye week.
“It’s jarring, and it’s disappointing,” Swinney said. “We have to get better.
“… Me personally, I feel like I’m kind of living 2010 all over again. That’s what I feel like. We just can’t seem to quite put it together and get out of our way. But it’s football. It’s football. But we’ll keep going, we’ll bounce up, we’ll pick ourselves up.”
The University of Miami and the College Football Playoff are working on a contingency plan to account for a possible Hard Rock Stadium scheduling conflict if the Hurricanes make the playoff and earn a first-round home game.
LaLiga, Spain’s top-flight soccer league, officially announced its plans last week to hold the Barcelona-Villarreal game in Miami on Dec. 20 — the same day as the first round of the CFP.
The CFP’s top four seeds earn a first-round bye, and the Nos. 5-8 seeds host a first-round home game. With Miami’s loss to Louisville on Friday night, the Hurricanes’ chances of earning a bye dropped significantly, while the possibility of hosting a home game increased.
Miami provided a statement to ESPN on Sunday about the ongoing conversations.
“Hard Rock Stadium developed an operational plan should the stadium host both a LaLiga game and a University of Miami CFP first-round game the weekend of December 19th and 20th,” the school said. “We will continue to refine and review the plan and ultimately meet the needs and objectives of the CFP pending final scheduling of both events.”
With the soccer game scheduled for a potential 10:15 a.m. ET kickoff, the Hurricanes could host the CFP game at Hard Rock Stadium later that night. The playoff game also could move to a different day, but both of those options would require some assistance from ESPN to find a television window that works.
The CFP management committee, which is composed of the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, has to approve the final plan, but that’s not expected for a few weeks.
CFP officials are expecting Miami to provide them with an alternate location this week, and sources told ESPN the university is considering Orlando, Florida — but that would be the worst-case scenario.
“We are aware of reports regarding a La Liga match and the potential for a University of Miami CFP First-Round playoff game to be scheduled on the same weekend at Hard Rock Stadium,” the CFP said in a statement. “We will continue to review operational plans with all parties involved, pending final scheduling of both events.”
There are still more questions than answers. LaLiga players have recently protested the league’s decision to hold a regular-season game in Miami, and of course, the Hurricanes have yet to make the playoff.
This isn’t the first time a school has had to come up with a playoff contingency plan. In 2024, the first year of the 12-team field, Kansas athletic director Travis Goff said that if the Jayhawks earned a first-round home game, it would have to be played at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium because of construction at the school’s on-campus stadium.