Why a make-or-break season for the Maple Leafs begins now
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a state of turmoil. Or at least, one of turnover.
It’s been a few weeks since another promising Leafs’ season petered out in an utterly disappointing first-round Stanley Cup playoff series loss to the Boston Bruins — marking the seventh time in eight seasons Toronto has failed to advance past the first round in the postseason.
Granted, the Leafs rallied against the Bruins from a 3-1 series deficit to force Game 7. But Toronto’s overtime loss was a failure without justification, which can’t be ignored or swept under the rug. It has to induce some degree of change.
Toronto’s management group — president Brendan Shanahan, general manager Brad Treliving and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment CEO Keith Pelley — spoke after the Leafs’ defeat with pointed public comments about how “everything was on the table” to get Toronto past its perennial playoff woes.
The first domino to fall was — predictably — head coach Sheldon Keefe, fired from his post on May 9 and replaced by Craig Berube on May 23.
That swap is just the beginning of what could — and should — be a transformative offseason for the Leafs. There’s more the club needs to address to avoid finding itself in a similar position this time next year.
ESPN had discussions with sources inside and outside the organization as a summer of change has already started. Here are the different angles in play for the Leafs.
LET’S ADDRESS THE ELEPHANT(S) in the room.
Mitch Marner is about to enter the final year of his contract. Ditto for John Tavares. That’s two members of Toronto’s so-called “core four” facing foggy futures. There is a full no-movement clause attached for both players in the coming season, so the Leafs aren’t at liberty to orchestrate any trades.
However, a no-movement clause doesn’t preclude Treliving from asking around about the possibility of moving either player. Due diligence is part of a GM’s process, and Treliving can present Marner and Tavares with any scenarios that arise — and potentially pique their interest in allowing a trade.
Alternatively, Toronto could offer contract extensions to one or both skaters, removing some of that looming unpredictability.
The latter option doesn’t appear likely.
Marner’s status in particular has been hotly debated. While the Leafs crashed and burned in the playoffs (again), Marner was practically nowhere to be found on the scoresheet. After putting up 26 goals and 85 points in 69 regular-season games, Toronto’s top winger added just one goal and three points in seven postseason tilts. It was a frustrating finish for Marner and the Leafs to not see his best game at the most critical time of the season — especially in a series where Toronto was getting shut down on a nightly basis by Boston’s Jeremy Swayman.
The noise surrounding Marner’s next chapter might not have gotten so loud if he had excelled in the postseason. His struggles might have also lessened appetites on both sides to begin extension talks when that window opens on July 1. In fact, it might behoove Marner to wait and see how the season begins — particularly with a new coach calling the shots — and then decide whether to re-up with the Leafs or explore free agency a year from now.
Marner is 27 years old. This is the prime of his career when his earning potential is at its highest. Toronto has already heavily invested in two other core pieces — Auston Matthews at $13.25 million per season and William Nylander at $11.5 million — and Marner seeking an equivocal payday (not to mention a raise from his current $10.9 million salary) may be too much for Toronto. And don’t expect Marner to take a discount just because he’s a Toronto-area native.
Tavares, on the other hand, could be more willing to accept less in order to stay. Toronto’s captain has continued to produce steadily — he scored 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games this season — and provides leadership in the Leafs’ dressing room. Tavares will be 34 when next season starts; any new contract will reflect that in both length and dollars.
Suffice to say, Toronto has questions to answer about two of its most important players. Having Marner and Tavares playing out these final seasons could be an unnecessary and potentially costly distraction if not properly managed. Toronto went through a similar situation with Nylander before he signed a seven-year extension in January. Marner’s situation will draw daily attention until there’s a resolution.
It won’t just be Marner fielding inquiries, either. His teammates will be peppered repeatedly about the negotiations, too. How Toronto balances those internal and external pressures will play a role in how the Leafs’ show up through the first half of their season (and maybe beyond).
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The numbers behind Sheldon Keefe’s firing from Toronto
With Sheldon Keefe out in Toronto, check out some numbers behind the Maple Leafs’ decades of playoff futility.
TRELIVING HAD SPECIFIC thoughts about who should succeed Keefe as Toronto’s next head coach.
The Leafs’ GM said he interviewed nine candidates for the position before zeroing in on Berube. The 58-year-old’s history checked all Toronto’s boxes:
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Berube’s bruising NHL career spanned more than 1,000 games (including 40 for the Leafs in 1991-92).
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He had racked up head-coaching experience in Philadelphia (2013-15) and St. Louis (2019-23).
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He was the Blues’ interim bench boss when he guided the franchise to its first Stanley Cup victory in 2019. That earned Berube the Blues’ full-time gig — and considerable respect around the league.
While researching candidates, Treliving encountered the same refrain from players willing to “go through a wall” for Berube. The extra endorsement helped persuade Treliving to make the marriage official.
Berube being a beloved player’s coach works into Treliving’s other motivation for Toronto moving forward: that it becomes a more well-rounded team. Focus in recent years has been trained mostly on the Leafs’ highly paid core skaters. Treliving wants everyone in the Leafs’ lineup to feel important, impactful and necessary to team success.
Toronto’s new coach has a methodology supporting that goal. At Berube’s introductory news conference, he explained a no-nonsense approach hinging on the Leafs never getting outworked. Achieving that comes only if the entire mix of top-flight talents and fourth-line grinders pull on the same proverbial rope.
When Keefe came on board in 2019 to replace Mike Babcock, he was determined to let players do what they do best. Keefe’s aim was to support the Leafs’ creativity on the ice, but the strategy produced an excess of too-cute fluff, from ineffective dropbacks to prioritizing east-west movement over north-south.
That’s where Berube’s team will differ from Keefe’s — in theory. Berube’s philosophy centers on a more hard-nosed game, digging pucks out of corners, winning battles and earning ice time through being accountable on every shift.
It’s predictable hockey, where every skater has a role and how to execute. That’s Berube’s ideology. It’s in lockstep with how Treliving would view a revitalized Leafs group.
The only question is: Can Berube pull that out of Toronto’s current group?
Berube already made adjustments to Leafs’ coaching personnel, bringing on former New York Islanders bench boss Lane Lambert and letting go of Dean Chynoweth. Manny Malhotra is also gone. Toronto will be surrounded by fresh voices with new ideas. Where will it all lead?
Treliving touted Berube’s “presence,” calling it something a coach either has or doesn’t have. How that carries over into the Leafs’ dressing room could determine what level of buy-in Berube gets from inside it. Berube will be blunt and straightforward with players and staff. He will prioritize sound defense over flashy offense. And Berube won’t let Toronto’s stars single-handedly drive the bus.
Berube is what the Leafs need to do a near-complete 180 turn from the team that left Boston, tail between its legs, in another early-May exit. But only if his new paradigm goes according to plan.
IN THE MEDIA they called it a “Shanaplan.” The term’s namesake never cared for that moniker.
The Leafs have been built in Shanahan’s image. He has been the architect of this Toronto team since stepping into the role of president and alternate governor in April 2014. At least one season under Shanahan’s reign (the 2015-16 campaign) was purposefully terrible: Toronto’s focus was winning the draft lottery and selecting Matthews. Mission accomplished.
But in a decade with Shanahan, the Leafs have churned through five coaches and four general managers while investing more than half their salary cap in four skaters; that in turn severely limited adding options around them. Toronto responded to that mandate with exactly one playoff series win — and seven series losses.
Now, the Leafs have earned plenty of regular-season success. Toronto notched consecutive 50-plus win showings from 2021 to 2023 and passed the 100-point mark in each of the past three campaigns. It just hasn’t led to anything greater. The Leafs are in exactly the same spot they were when Shanahan took over — and that’s on the outside looking in at the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
Those same Leafs who look unstoppable in the regular season are laughably beatable in the playoffs. It’s an awkward disparity for which the team can never adequately account.
There was no confirmation from Shanahan on his contract status at season’s end, but it’s believed he’s in the final year of a deal signed back in 2019. Pelley — who was named MLSE’s new CEO in April — has put his weight behind Shanahan and Treliving. For now, anyway.
When Shanahan said in May that Toronto would explore all options to improve the team, it was a blanket statement without specifics. Was that because Shanahan doesn’t have any? Or wasn’t willing to share?
All eyes are on Toronto’s top executive to see what he does next — knowing the decision will impact not only the Leafs’ on-ice future but Shanahan’s, too. He hasn’t shied away from tough choices in the past, from promoting Kyle Dubas over Lou Lamoriello in 2017 to not extending Dubas last year and hiring Treliving instead. Shanahan’s jockeying hasn’t moved the needle enough to make Toronto a clear-cut contender. That’s what has to change, in what might be a now-or-never summer.
LET’S ASSUME THAT Marner and Tavares will be Leafs in 2024-25.
So, how will Toronto improve around its identical core?
The Leafs’ defense is lacking in experience, with holes to fill. The depth chart is headlined by Morgan Rielly, and he deserves a top-tier partner. Toronto remaking its back end is a clear priority heading into free agency. The Leafs have a slew of upcoming UFA blueliners, including Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin and John Klingberg — all players Treliving acquired since taking over.
The Leafs will also have interest in players entering free agency, such as Carolina’s Brett Pesce and Dallas’ Chris Tanev. Toronto projects to have over $18 million in cap space to work with for the coming season, and that should help fund a blue-line makeover.
Treliving will also have a choice to make on restricted free agent Timothy Liljegren. The Leafs’ first-round pick in 2017 has had an inconsistent career in Toronto but could be valuable in trade talks. Same for restricted free agent forward Nick Robertson. Treliving will assess the Leafs’ entire roster through the lens of Berube’s structure; who fits, and who doesn’t? All of that will take shape through the Leafs’ offseason process.
Some easy wins for Treliving, though, would be re-signing free agents Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. Toronto has skill and speed to spare, but not with the grit Domi and Bertuzzi can bring to the lineup. Plus, they’ve both been in Toronto and want to return. That’s no small thing for the Leafs, who have watched players such as Ryan O’Reilly walk away to other teams after spending even a short time in Toronto.
Then there’s the oft-discussed possibility of the Leafs luring local product Steven Stamkos back home. The Tampa Bay Lightning captain — and Toronto native — is still a threat on the ice, but cap constraints might preclude him from being part of the Lightning’s future. If Stamkos were finally interested in a homecoming, then Treliving would be wise to explore a partnership.
After all, the Leafs can’t just run it back as before. They need outside help to improve, and that’s only going to come through additions matching synergistically with the talent Toronto already has and the system Berube is going to implement. Treliving’s task is to give Berube the right ingredients so the Leafs’ recipe won’t collapse in the playoffs — again.
THE LEAFS DIDN’T NEED another gut punch in the Boston series. They got one anyway.
In the hours leading up to warmups for Game 7, news leaked that Joseph Woll was unavailable because of injury. The Leafs were going back to Ilya Samsonov in the do-or-die showdown.
Why was this so cringe-worthy? Because it was Samsonov who’d backstopped Toronto into its initial 3-1 series hole, and Woll who dug them out of it by recording sensational back-to-back wins in Games 5 and 6. Woll sprained his back making a save in the dying seconds of that Game 6 victory. And that ultimately proved to be a back-breaker for the Leafs.
Samsonov got Toronto to overtime in Game 7, but Bruins’ forward David Pastrnak made it look all too easy beating the Russian netminder with the series-winning tally. That might be the last goal Samsonov ever allows for the Leafs. He’s about to become a UFA, and given the up-and-down season Samsonov just had — he was placed on waivers and briefly demoted to the American Hockey League after a difficult start to the season — it’s probably better for both parties to cut ties for good.
So who will replace him alongside Woll in the Toronto crease?
Berube will have thoughts on that question. He saw the difference a goaltender can make when Jordan Binnington played lights out for the Blues during their Cup run. The upcoming free agent class isn’t riddled with options, though.
Laurent Brossoit could be a solid piece in tandem with Woll — if Toronto is prepared to hand him the starting job despite a history of injuries. Brossoit lived in Connor Hellebuyck‘s shadow with the Winnipeg Jets but was 15-5-2 with a .927 save percentage in 2023-24. Anthony Stolarz and Cam Talbot are veterans with ample experience to balance Woll’s youth. Could the Leafs rely on either to play a significant role in the event Woll was hurt? That could be a red flag.
Toronto might have to explore a trade route to bolster its netminding. Liljegren or Robertson being available could aid in getting a deal done. Nashville’s Juuse Saros and Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom were mentioned in trade rumors ahead of the in-season deadline, and would be the top names making the rounds as conversations ramp up leading into the draft. Treliving was the GM in Calgary when Markstrom signed his current six-year, $36 million deal in 2020.
However the Leafs manage it, selecting their next significant goaltender will loom large — and the choice Treliving ultimately makes is going to have far-reaching effects on what the Leafs accomplish next season.
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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