Why a make-or-break season for the Maple Leafs begins now
-
Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a state of turmoil. Or at least, one of turnover.
It’s been a few weeks since another promising Leafs’ season petered out in an utterly disappointing first-round Stanley Cup playoff series loss to the Boston Bruins — marking the seventh time in eight seasons Toronto has failed to advance past the first round in the postseason.
Granted, the Leafs rallied against the Bruins from a 3-1 series deficit to force Game 7. But Toronto’s overtime loss was a failure without justification, which can’t be ignored or swept under the rug. It has to induce some degree of change.
Toronto’s management group — president Brendan Shanahan, general manager Brad Treliving and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment CEO Keith Pelley — spoke after the Leafs’ defeat with pointed public comments about how “everything was on the table” to get Toronto past its perennial playoff woes.
The first domino to fall was — predictably — head coach Sheldon Keefe, fired from his post on May 9 and replaced by Craig Berube on May 23.
That swap is just the beginning of what could — and should — be a transformative offseason for the Leafs. There’s more the club needs to address to avoid finding itself in a similar position this time next year.
ESPN had discussions with sources inside and outside the organization as a summer of change has already started. Here are the different angles in play for the Leafs.
LET’S ADDRESS THE ELEPHANT(S) in the room.
Mitch Marner is about to enter the final year of his contract. Ditto for John Tavares. That’s two members of Toronto’s so-called “core four” facing foggy futures. There is a full no-movement clause attached for both players in the coming season, so the Leafs aren’t at liberty to orchestrate any trades.
However, a no-movement clause doesn’t preclude Treliving from asking around about the possibility of moving either player. Due diligence is part of a GM’s process, and Treliving can present Marner and Tavares with any scenarios that arise — and potentially pique their interest in allowing a trade.
Alternatively, Toronto could offer contract extensions to one or both skaters, removing some of that looming unpredictability.
The latter option doesn’t appear likely.
Marner’s status in particular has been hotly debated. While the Leafs crashed and burned in the playoffs (again), Marner was practically nowhere to be found on the scoresheet. After putting up 26 goals and 85 points in 69 regular-season games, Toronto’s top winger added just one goal and three points in seven postseason tilts. It was a frustrating finish for Marner and the Leafs to not see his best game at the most critical time of the season — especially in a series where Toronto was getting shut down on a nightly basis by Boston’s Jeremy Swayman.
The noise surrounding Marner’s next chapter might not have gotten so loud if he had excelled in the postseason. His struggles might have also lessened appetites on both sides to begin extension talks when that window opens on July 1. In fact, it might behoove Marner to wait and see how the season begins — particularly with a new coach calling the shots — and then decide whether to re-up with the Leafs or explore free agency a year from now.
Marner is 27 years old. This is the prime of his career when his earning potential is at its highest. Toronto has already heavily invested in two other core pieces — Auston Matthews at $13.25 million per season and William Nylander at $11.5 million — and Marner seeking an equivocal payday (not to mention a raise from his current $10.9 million salary) may be too much for Toronto. And don’t expect Marner to take a discount just because he’s a Toronto-area native.
Tavares, on the other hand, could be more willing to accept less in order to stay. Toronto’s captain has continued to produce steadily — he scored 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games this season — and provides leadership in the Leafs’ dressing room. Tavares will be 34 when next season starts; any new contract will reflect that in both length and dollars.
Suffice to say, Toronto has questions to answer about two of its most important players. Having Marner and Tavares playing out these final seasons could be an unnecessary and potentially costly distraction if not properly managed. Toronto went through a similar situation with Nylander before he signed a seven-year extension in January. Marner’s situation will draw daily attention until there’s a resolution.
It won’t just be Marner fielding inquiries, either. His teammates will be peppered repeatedly about the negotiations, too. How Toronto balances those internal and external pressures will play a role in how the Leafs’ show up through the first half of their season (and maybe beyond).
1:23
The numbers behind Sheldon Keefe’s firing from Toronto
With Sheldon Keefe out in Toronto, check out some numbers behind the Maple Leafs’ decades of playoff futility.
TRELIVING HAD SPECIFIC thoughts about who should succeed Keefe as Toronto’s next head coach.
The Leafs’ GM said he interviewed nine candidates for the position before zeroing in on Berube. The 58-year-old’s history checked all Toronto’s boxes:
-
Berube’s bruising NHL career spanned more than 1,000 games (including 40 for the Leafs in 1991-92).
-
He had racked up head-coaching experience in Philadelphia (2013-15) and St. Louis (2019-23).
-
He was the Blues’ interim bench boss when he guided the franchise to its first Stanley Cup victory in 2019. That earned Berube the Blues’ full-time gig — and considerable respect around the league.
While researching candidates, Treliving encountered the same refrain from players willing to “go through a wall” for Berube. The extra endorsement helped persuade Treliving to make the marriage official.
Berube being a beloved player’s coach works into Treliving’s other motivation for Toronto moving forward: that it becomes a more well-rounded team. Focus in recent years has been trained mostly on the Leafs’ highly paid core skaters. Treliving wants everyone in the Leafs’ lineup to feel important, impactful and necessary to team success.
Toronto’s new coach has a methodology supporting that goal. At Berube’s introductory news conference, he explained a no-nonsense approach hinging on the Leafs never getting outworked. Achieving that comes only if the entire mix of top-flight talents and fourth-line grinders pull on the same proverbial rope.
When Keefe came on board in 2019 to replace Mike Babcock, he was determined to let players do what they do best. Keefe’s aim was to support the Leafs’ creativity on the ice, but the strategy produced an excess of too-cute fluff, from ineffective dropbacks to prioritizing east-west movement over north-south.
That’s where Berube’s team will differ from Keefe’s — in theory. Berube’s philosophy centers on a more hard-nosed game, digging pucks out of corners, winning battles and earning ice time through being accountable on every shift.
It’s predictable hockey, where every skater has a role and how to execute. That’s Berube’s ideology. It’s in lockstep with how Treliving would view a revitalized Leafs group.
The only question is: Can Berube pull that out of Toronto’s current group?
Berube already made adjustments to Leafs’ coaching personnel, bringing on former New York Islanders bench boss Lane Lambert and letting go of Dean Chynoweth. Manny Malhotra is also gone. Toronto will be surrounded by fresh voices with new ideas. Where will it all lead?
Treliving touted Berube’s “presence,” calling it something a coach either has or doesn’t have. How that carries over into the Leafs’ dressing room could determine what level of buy-in Berube gets from inside it. Berube will be blunt and straightforward with players and staff. He will prioritize sound defense over flashy offense. And Berube won’t let Toronto’s stars single-handedly drive the bus.
Berube is what the Leafs need to do a near-complete 180 turn from the team that left Boston, tail between its legs, in another early-May exit. But only if his new paradigm goes according to plan.
IN THE MEDIA they called it a “Shanaplan.” The term’s namesake never cared for that moniker.
The Leafs have been built in Shanahan’s image. He has been the architect of this Toronto team since stepping into the role of president and alternate governor in April 2014. At least one season under Shanahan’s reign (the 2015-16 campaign) was purposefully terrible: Toronto’s focus was winning the draft lottery and selecting Matthews. Mission accomplished.
But in a decade with Shanahan, the Leafs have churned through five coaches and four general managers while investing more than half their salary cap in four skaters; that in turn severely limited adding options around them. Toronto responded to that mandate with exactly one playoff series win — and seven series losses.
Now, the Leafs have earned plenty of regular-season success. Toronto notched consecutive 50-plus win showings from 2021 to 2023 and passed the 100-point mark in each of the past three campaigns. It just hasn’t led to anything greater. The Leafs are in exactly the same spot they were when Shanahan took over — and that’s on the outside looking in at the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
Those same Leafs who look unstoppable in the regular season are laughably beatable in the playoffs. It’s an awkward disparity for which the team can never adequately account.
There was no confirmation from Shanahan on his contract status at season’s end, but it’s believed he’s in the final year of a deal signed back in 2019. Pelley — who was named MLSE’s new CEO in April — has put his weight behind Shanahan and Treliving. For now, anyway.
When Shanahan said in May that Toronto would explore all options to improve the team, it was a blanket statement without specifics. Was that because Shanahan doesn’t have any? Or wasn’t willing to share?
All eyes are on Toronto’s top executive to see what he does next — knowing the decision will impact not only the Leafs’ on-ice future but Shanahan’s, too. He hasn’t shied away from tough choices in the past, from promoting Kyle Dubas over Lou Lamoriello in 2017 to not extending Dubas last year and hiring Treliving instead. Shanahan’s jockeying hasn’t moved the needle enough to make Toronto a clear-cut contender. That’s what has to change, in what might be a now-or-never summer.
LET’S ASSUME THAT Marner and Tavares will be Leafs in 2024-25.
So, how will Toronto improve around its identical core?
The Leafs’ defense is lacking in experience, with holes to fill. The depth chart is headlined by Morgan Rielly, and he deserves a top-tier partner. Toronto remaking its back end is a clear priority heading into free agency. The Leafs have a slew of upcoming UFA blueliners, including Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin and John Klingberg — all players Treliving acquired since taking over.
The Leafs will also have interest in players entering free agency, such as Carolina’s Brett Pesce and Dallas’ Chris Tanev. Toronto projects to have over $18 million in cap space to work with for the coming season, and that should help fund a blue-line makeover.
Treliving will also have a choice to make on restricted free agent Timothy Liljegren. The Leafs’ first-round pick in 2017 has had an inconsistent career in Toronto but could be valuable in trade talks. Same for restricted free agent forward Nick Robertson. Treliving will assess the Leafs’ entire roster through the lens of Berube’s structure; who fits, and who doesn’t? All of that will take shape through the Leafs’ offseason process.
Some easy wins for Treliving, though, would be re-signing free agents Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. Toronto has skill and speed to spare, but not with the grit Domi and Bertuzzi can bring to the lineup. Plus, they’ve both been in Toronto and want to return. That’s no small thing for the Leafs, who have watched players such as Ryan O’Reilly walk away to other teams after spending even a short time in Toronto.
Then there’s the oft-discussed possibility of the Leafs luring local product Steven Stamkos back home. The Tampa Bay Lightning captain — and Toronto native — is still a threat on the ice, but cap constraints might preclude him from being part of the Lightning’s future. If Stamkos were finally interested in a homecoming, then Treliving would be wise to explore a partnership.
After all, the Leafs can’t just run it back as before. They need outside help to improve, and that’s only going to come through additions matching synergistically with the talent Toronto already has and the system Berube is going to implement. Treliving’s task is to give Berube the right ingredients so the Leafs’ recipe won’t collapse in the playoffs — again.
THE LEAFS DIDN’T NEED another gut punch in the Boston series. They got one anyway.
In the hours leading up to warmups for Game 7, news leaked that Joseph Woll was unavailable because of injury. The Leafs were going back to Ilya Samsonov in the do-or-die showdown.
Why was this so cringe-worthy? Because it was Samsonov who’d backstopped Toronto into its initial 3-1 series hole, and Woll who dug them out of it by recording sensational back-to-back wins in Games 5 and 6. Woll sprained his back making a save in the dying seconds of that Game 6 victory. And that ultimately proved to be a back-breaker for the Leafs.
Samsonov got Toronto to overtime in Game 7, but Bruins’ forward David Pastrnak made it look all too easy beating the Russian netminder with the series-winning tally. That might be the last goal Samsonov ever allows for the Leafs. He’s about to become a UFA, and given the up-and-down season Samsonov just had — he was placed on waivers and briefly demoted to the American Hockey League after a difficult start to the season — it’s probably better for both parties to cut ties for good.
So who will replace him alongside Woll in the Toronto crease?
Berube will have thoughts on that question. He saw the difference a goaltender can make when Jordan Binnington played lights out for the Blues during their Cup run. The upcoming free agent class isn’t riddled with options, though.
Laurent Brossoit could be a solid piece in tandem with Woll — if Toronto is prepared to hand him the starting job despite a history of injuries. Brossoit lived in Connor Hellebuyck‘s shadow with the Winnipeg Jets but was 15-5-2 with a .927 save percentage in 2023-24. Anthony Stolarz and Cam Talbot are veterans with ample experience to balance Woll’s youth. Could the Leafs rely on either to play a significant role in the event Woll was hurt? That could be a red flag.
Toronto might have to explore a trade route to bolster its netminding. Liljegren or Robertson being available could aid in getting a deal done. Nashville’s Juuse Saros and Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom were mentioned in trade rumors ahead of the in-season deadline, and would be the top names making the rounds as conversations ramp up leading into the draft. Treliving was the GM in Calgary when Markstrom signed his current six-year, $36 million deal in 2020.
However the Leafs manage it, selecting their next significant goaltender will loom large — and the choice Treliving ultimately makes is going to have far-reaching effects on what the Leafs accomplish next season.
-
Jake Trotter
Oklahoma quarterback and Heisman frontrunner John Mateer will undergo surgery on his right hand, the school announced Tuesday.
Mateer suffered the injury to his throwing hand during the first quarter of Saturday’s 24-17 win over Auburn, with sources telling ESPN’s Pete Thamel that Mateer has a broken bone in the hand.
While Oklahoma coach Brent Venables didn’t provide a specific timetable for Mateer’s return, sources told Thamel that the estimated timeline after surgery is expected to be about a month, as the surgery is considered straight-forward.
Mateer is scheduled to undergo the surgery Wednesday in Los Angeles.
“After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future,” Venables said. “He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.”
Mateer’s injury is a massive blow to the seventh-ranked Sooners, who are off to a 4-0 start with wins over Michigan and Auburn.
Mateer, who transferred in from Washington State during the offseason, has been the catalyst behind Oklahoma’s stark turnaround after a 6-7 finish in 2024.
He’s completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 and six touchdowns. He’s also the Sooners’ leading rusher with 190 yards and five more touchdowns. Mateer ranks second nationally with 351.3 yards of total offense per game.
Despite suffering the injury early against Auburn, he finished the game and passed for 271 yards.
With his hot start, Mateer had emerged as the favorite to win the Heisman at +750, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+650) is the new Heisman favorite at ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Venables said that sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will start Oklahoma’s next game against Kent State on Oct. 4 Hawkins started four games for the Sooners last year. He passed for 783 yards and three touchdowns.
Oklahoma faces rival Texas on Oct. 11.
After a road trip to South Carolina, the Sooners close out the regular season with five straight games against ranked opponents: No. 13 Ole Miss, at No. 15 Tennessee, at No. 18 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU.
-
Bradford Doolittle
Which playoff team most needs to win the World Series?
This is a question we try to answer around this time every year. What builds the pressure to win right now? The answer is a little different for every team, and the force of that pressure changes with each passing season. Teams age. Free agents leave and arrive. Playoff disappointments pile up. Playoff absences chafe.
The more success a team has without winning it all, the more the pressure builds up. Not until it wins it all does that pressure finally release, resetting the valve, and fans of that team can relax. Only the Dodgers’ faithful are in a state of pure release — because L.A. won just last year.
Let’s take a look at how the current contenders rate on the pressure scale.
The Pressure Index formula
The original incarnation of our system was based on an old Bill James method for calculating “pressure points.” Last year, we tweaked our methodology a little to add measurable narrative-based factors to the numbers-based historical context, and that worked pretty well, so we’ve carried that over for the coming 2025 MLB playoffs.
The revised Pressure Index considers the following factors, ranked in order by the weight they carry in the final calculation:
1. Drought pressure: This is all about flags, both World Series titles and pennants. The championship part of this factor counts twice as much as the pennant factor. The current leader is the Cleveland Guardians, owners of baseball’s longest title drought at 76 years. Teams coming off a title — e.g., the Dodgers — have no drought pressure. The New York Yankees, as the defending American League champs, get a little release from the drought factor for ending their pennant-less streak, but the pressure won’t fully dissipate until the Bombers win it all.
2. Knock-knock pressure: There is a whole different pressure for a franchise that lingers well below .500 year after year than there is for a franchise that consistently plays winning baseball and yet can’t seem to get anywhere in October. Looking at the most recent 25-year window, the knock-knock factor counts winning seasons weighted from most recent to most distant. The Yankees, with their active streak of 33 straight winning seasons, have the most knock-knock points. The 2025 season standings were included in this calculation.
3. Flickering star pressure: Using AXE ratings, we calculate the average AXE of a team’s pending free agents. Players with a club option are not included in this tally. Using the average adds to the pressure of clubs such as the Philadelphia Phillies, who have star players (Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez) about to hit free agency.
4. Exodus pressure: Another free agent factor: Using AXE ratings again, we tally the total AXE points for a team’s pending free agents. Again, players with a club option are not included. Losing a star player hurts — but so does having a lot of holes to fill.
5. Father Time pressure: Time comes for us all. The older a team is, the shorter its window of opportunity for elite contention. This factor is based on average team ages, hitters and pitchers combined.
The rankings
Note: This includes every team that currently has at least a 5% chance at making the postseason, per our daily simulations.
Pressure Index: 109.5
Last pennant: 1982
Last World Series title: Never
The Brewers topped our leaderboard a year ago and went on to drop a tough wild-card series at American Family Field to the Mets. Then, despite preseason forecasts that marked them as a fringe playoff hopeful, they went out and put up what might well end up as the most successful regular season in franchise history. Based on what we’ve seen to date, the Brewers have never been in a better position to win their first World Series. They’ve had great regular seasons before — perhaps not as great as this one — but the only thing that will quench the ever-thirsty fans in Wisconsin is the city’s first MLB championship since the 1957 Milwaukee Braves.
Pressure Index: 108.0
Last pennant: 1998
Last World Series title: Never
The Brewers have gone longer without a pennant and have also piled up more good seasons than San Diego, or else the Pads might have landed in the top spot. There isn’t a factor for trade deadline aggression, but if there were, the Padres might have overtaken the Brewers for that reason, too. Because many of the players moved at the deadline tend to be headed for free agency, that’s a pretty good proxy for the kind of internally generated pressure that goes with an aggressive deadline approach. The Padres have the third-most exodus points and are fifth in the flickering star column. Among those who might hit the market are Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and Michael King (mutual option) and Robert Suarez (player option). Given that list and A.J. Preller’s frenetic deadline behavior, the time to win for San Diego is very much right now.
Pressure Index: 107.8
Last pennant: Never
Last World Series title: Never
Speaking of deadline activity, the Mariners’ pickups of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez signaled a clear win-now approach. Both will be free agents after the season. Beyond that, as the only active team that has never won a pennant, the pressure has been building in Seattle since the day the Mariners debuted in 1977. Finally, though Cal Raleigh‘s history-making breakout season doesn’t factor into the Pressure Index, you could argue that in a sense it should because we can’t expect to see him at this level after 2025. That’s not a knock on him — he should remain an All-Star-caliber backstop. But few have ever reached the pinnacle Raleigh is at in 2025, and those who have gotten there have tended not to stay there.
Pressure Index: 106.5
Last pennant: 2016
Last World Series title: 1948
A late-season surge, combined with the Tigers’ collapse, has resoundingly returned the Guardians to this portion of our rankings. As has been the case the past couple of years, the Guardians’ pressure is almost entirely generated by their decades-long title drought. There are so many ways to contextualize it, but here’s a fun one: The last time Cleveland won the World Series, one of its top relief pitchers was Satchel Paige. Because winning a pennant relieves the drought points column a little, the Guardians’ 2016 pennant is recent enough to keep them behind the top three on this list in that area. However, only two teams have more knock-knock points than the consistently solid Guardians — the Yankees and Cardinals.
Pressure Index: 105.1
Last pennant: 1993
Last World Series title: 1993
The Blue Jays’ rise from fifth place to first place in the AL East has ratcheted up the tension for a franchise that hasn’t seen the World Series in more than three decades despite a number of strong teams during that span. The Jays also have some big-name free agents in Bo Bichette, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Shane Bieber, who has a player option. Imagine what the pressure might feel like if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had not inked an extension back in April.
Pressure Index: 104.6
Last pennant: 2015
Last World Series title: 1986
If we based these ratings on media scrutiny and payroll, the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers would never fall out of the top three slots. For the Mets, their real-world pressure can’t be captured by an algorithm like this, mostly because of a combination of preseason expectation fueled by the addition of Juan Soto in the offseason, and the downward-pointing trajectory of what once looked like a banner season. If the Mets capture the NL’s last postseason spot — not even close to a sure thing at this point — the consternation generated by their lackluster second half can be addressed with a deep playoff run. But that doesn’t feel too likely at the moment.
Pressure Index: 104.5
Last pennant: 2024
Last World Series title: 2009
The defending AL champs! Good enough? Didn’t think so. The World Series returned to the Bronx last fall, but watching the Dodgers celebrate a title at Yankee Stadium didn’t do much to turn down the temperature on fan expectation. There was also the Soto factor, given his possible departure, which of course came to pass. Still, the Yankees restocked in free agency, added aggressively at the deadline and added even more points to their MLB-leading knock-knock total with a 33rd straight winning season. But let’s face it: This is the Yankees, and the only thing that will ease the scrutiny is a championship.
Pressure Index: 102.8
Last pennant: 2012
Last World Series title: 1984
Last season’s playoff berth felt like found money for the Tigers. Not so this time around, as Detroit has led the AL Central for virtually the entire season. Its lead over Cleveland in the division, once in double figures, has all but disappeared, and what looked like a certain return to the playoffs is now in doubt. A four-decade title drought feeds the Tigers’ Pressure Index, as does a fairly splashy free agent class that includes Kyle Finnegan, Jack Flaherty (player option), Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb, Chris Paddack, Tommy Kahnle and Gleyber Torres. Still, even if Detroit’s late-season swoon culminates in an early playoff exit, Tigers fans can take solace in a young roster core and a loaded minor league system. This is only the beginning of the adventure.
Pressure Index: 101.4
Last pennant: 2022
Last World Series title: 2008
Drought points are the most heavily weighted factor in the system, and the Phillies’ 2008 title and 2022 pennant are recent enough to keep their score low in that category. But they still land in the top 10 of the Pressure Index because of their looming free agent class (led by Schwarber and Ranger Suarez) and a veteran roster that ranks second in overall average team age. Under GM Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have been building with the near-term window at the forefront of their planning for a few years now. At some point, and soon, it needs to pay off with their third World Series crown in 143 years of existence.
Pressure Index: 101.2
Last pennant: 1990
Last World Series title: 1990
The Reds’ Mets-fueled playoff odds resurgence lands them here in the contenders’ group, where Cincinnati’s ever-growing drought in both the championship and pennant columns looms large. This isn’t in the calculation, but you might also consider the Reds’ dynamic young rotation as a soft factor. The way Hunter Greene and Brady Singer have thrown lately, and the way Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have pitched for much of the season, you’d love to see what the Reds might do in a playoff context. And although these are all pretty young pitchers — and the Reds have more in the pipeline — pitching is a mercurial thing. You want to take advantage of it while it’s going good.
Pressure Index: 99.9
Last pennant: 2016
Last World Series title: 2016
Coming to you live from Chicago: We can report that the euphoria over the Cubs’ drought-ending championship in 2016 is largely yesterday’s news. (No, it won’t be forgotten, but it’s been nine years, after all.) The Cubs entered the season as the NL Central favorite, and although it’s been a strong campaign on the North Side, they are looking at a wild-card berth. That’s progress — the Cubs had missed the playoffs four years running — and expectations remain high. A midseason offensive slump was a cause for concern, but the Cubs have been going well of late. Hovering over all this is the pending free agency of the Cubs’ splashy offseason pickup, outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Pressure Index: 99.4
Last pennant: 2023
Last World Series title: 2001
You could argue the Diamondbacks don’t really have any pressure on them at all. For one thing, they have been a fringe hopeful, one that needed the continuing cooperation of the flagging Mets to stay alive. Arizona also waved a faint white flag in advance of the deadline by dealing Naylor and Suarez. But the Diamondbacks’ offense has been strong over the past few weeks, keeping their postseason window ajar. After all this, if Arizona ends up in the bracket, it’ll have to feel like it’s got nothing to lose.
Pressure Index: 99.3
Last pennant: 2018
Last World Series title: 2018
The Red Sox, once synonymous with the concept of “championship drought,” are good in that crucial column at present. Sure, in Boston, seven years without a banner might feel like a long time after the Red Sox’s run of four titles in 15 years, but it’s really not. Boston does rank high in the knock-knock column (fourth) and in the flickering star category (second). That’s because of possible free agencies for Alex Bregman and Trevor Story (both have player options). It would be worse if Aroldis Chapman had not signed an extension.
Pressure Index: 97.3
Last pennant: 2022
Last World Series title: 2022
The Astros aren’t dealing with a drought. But the roster is on the old side (ninth in average age) and is looking at the possible free agent departure of Framber Valdez. The window felt like it was starting to close when we entered the season, and the Astros have teetered more than once through the summer. After a weekend sweep by the rival Mariners, those wishing for a Houston-less postseason are feeling more hopeful than ever. The declining Astros need to take advantage of this contention opportunity while they can.
Pressure Index: 90.0
Last pennant: 2024
Last World Series title: 2024
The Dodgers’ drought points reset with last season’s title. At the same time, Los Angeles puts pressure on itself by funneling so many resources into building and managing its roster. There is no pressure on the Dodgers in the context of the Pressure Index approach, but L.A. has created a dynamic where you have to consider any season in which it doesn’t win as at least a mild disappointment. Then of course there is one major soft factor for this year’s Dodgers: This is the last go-round for Clayton Kershaw, and the desire to send him into retirement with a second straight championship has to be looming large in the organization.
Pressure Index for all other teams
16. Baltimore Orioles (103.3)
17. Pittsburgh Pirates (102.2)
18. Athletics (102.1)
19. Minnesota Twins (101.6)
20. St. Louis Cardinals (100.5)
21. Los Angeles Angels (99.7)
22. Tampa Bay Rays (98.2)
23. Atlanta Braves (97.6)
24. San Francisco Giants (96.9)
25. Chicago White Sox (96.5)
26. Texas Rangers (95.6)
27. Colorado Rockies (96.1)
28. Kansas City Royals (95.1)
29. Washington Nationals (92.9)
30. Miami Marlins (84.1)
-
Alden Gonzalez
The hardest-thrown pitch of Shohei Ohtani‘s career came on the day his team might have least expected it.
It was June 28 in Kansas City, and the weather was so hot around midday that Ohtani at one point crouched in the corner of Kauffman Stadium’s left-field bullpen to rest underneath the only sliver of shade available. His fastball barely broke 90 mph as he prepared for that afternoon’s game, worrying some of the Los Angeles Dodgers coaches. Then came the first inning. The Royals had two men on with one out. Vinnie Pasquantino, a notorious fastball hitter, came to bat. Ohtani sought to challenge him and unleashed a four-seamer that traveled 101.7 mph, inducing a double play and eliciting a lighthearted response from the Royals’ first baseman.
To a staff still learning about the pitching version of Ohtani, that pitch revealed something about the way his stuff reacts when it’s met with adrenaline, and what it might mean within the backdrop of baseball’s postseason. Said Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior: “He just has this ability to turn it on.”
Ohtani is scheduled to make his last regular-season start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, a development that might be serendipitous. Ohtani is now perfectly lined up to start Game 1 of next week’s wild-card round, in which L.A. is likely to take part. And though the Dodgers have yet to announce a rotation for that three-game series, it seems fitting that Ohtani would kick-start these playoffs as a two-way player. For years, fans throughout the world have been clamoring to see the most unique player in baseball history perform to his maximum capabilities on the sport’s grandest stage. Why delay it further?
“Everybody’s waiting for that moment, when he takes the ball in a big game and he has to go bat in the same [inning],” Ohtani’s teammate, Teoscar Hernández, said. “It’s gonna be exciting. I can’t wait.”
Any lingering concerns about Ohtani’s viability as a postseason pitcher were alleviated seven days ago, when, in his 13th start since a second repair of his ulnar collateral ligament, he no-hit the mighty Philadelphia Phillies through five innings. Ohtani matched his career-high velocity that night — on a pitch to Kyle Schwarber, who’s tied with Ohtani for the National League lead in home runs — and later triggered more questions about whether the Dodgers should stretch him further.
In their past three turns through the rotation, the Dodgers’ six starting pitchers have posted a 2.17 ERA. In that same stretch, their relievers have combined for a 4.91 ERA. The Dodgers used a dominant bullpen to overcome a thin rotation last October. This year, it’s their rotation that’s strong and their bullpen that’s weak — a dynamic that prompted Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to openly wonder if Ohtani’s right arm might be more useful out of the bullpen. Ohtani himself even threw out the possibility of playing the outfield, a necessity to stay in the lineup once he finishes pitching in relief.
But there is no need to ponder alternatives at this moment — Ohtani will be a starting pitcher in the playoffs, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said.
Anything else would be forced out of chaos and desperation.
“To Shohei’s credit, he’s like, ‘Hey, I’m willing to do anything,'” Friedman said. “It really indicates how much he wants to win. I can’t say enough for a star of that level to be so selfless in opening the door to whatever we think gives us the best chance to win — but I think he’s one of the better starting pitchers in baseball.”
Ohtani is all but guaranteed his fourth MVP Award in five years. His first year with the Dodgers saw him become the first ever 50/50 player, claim his first championship in his first trip to the postseason and then become the first full-time designated hitter to win an MVP.
His stolen-base totals are down significantly this season, from 59 to 19, an anticipated by-product of his pitching buildup. But the rest of his offensive numbers — .283/.395/.623 slash line, 53 home runs, 173 weighted runs created plus — are basically on par. And he’s pairing it with a 3.29 ERA in 41 innings, putting him at 8.9 fWAR heading into the final week of the regular season. Most importantly, he seems to be getting stronger as October approaches — a frequently stated goal as the Dodgers delayed his return to pitching and layered the innings in slowly, keeping him to a maximum of nine outs until August.
“I think that we couldn’t be more pleased with how it’s played out,” Roberts said. “Obviously Shohei’s the driver of this, but the training staff, the coaches have all done a great job kind of managing it. His teammates have done a great job of allowing for the different starts, the days in between. But looking at where we were at in spring training, to be here now, just overjoyed.”
When the playoffs come, Ohtani will bat leadoff every game and, as has been the case throughout his major league career, make pitching starts on five or six days’ rest. Roberts doesn’t believe he’ll have to do any managing of Ohtani outside of how long his starts will last, though that alone might get complicated.
In Ohtani’s return to pitching, the Dodgers have been more cognizant of innings than pitch count because of the stress of alternating between activity and rest. That was never more evident than last Tuesday, when Ohtani was taken out just 68 pitches into a no-hitter because the Dodgers had predetermined he would not pitch beyond the fifth inning.
Whether such a strict innings limit will continue in the playoffs remains to be seen — but the possibility of Ohtani playing the outfield is basically out of the question. Ohtani has not taken a single fly ball all year. And though the Dodgers believe he’s athletic enough to make such a quick transition, they would worry about him having to make a high-stress throw. They also don’t want to force him into such an unorthodox situation in such a high-stakes environment. In other words, they don’t want to set him up to fail.
As one Dodgers source put it: “That wouldn’t be fair to him.”
So, Ohtani will start. Unless chaos emerges, which it often does. Friedman pointed to the night of Oct. 30, 2024, when starting pitcher Walker Buehler came out of the Yankee Stadium bullpen to close out the World Series because the Dodgers had run out of pitchers. Ohtani might be called on to do something similar if the moment is right, Friedman allowed.
If they’re wondering how he might handle it, they can merely look back at the finale of the 2023 World Baseball Classic, when Ohtani sealed a championship for Japan by striking out then-Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout with an 87.2 mph sweeper.
The pitch before that: a fastball, at 101.6.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment12 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024