Why a make-or-break season for the Maple Leafs begins now
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a state of turmoil. Or at least, one of turnover.
It’s been a few weeks since another promising Leafs’ season petered out in an utterly disappointing first-round Stanley Cup playoff series loss to the Boston Bruins — marking the seventh time in eight seasons Toronto has failed to advance past the first round in the postseason.
Granted, the Leafs rallied against the Bruins from a 3-1 series deficit to force Game 7. But Toronto’s overtime loss was a failure without justification, which can’t be ignored or swept under the rug. It has to induce some degree of change.
Toronto’s management group — president Brendan Shanahan, general manager Brad Treliving and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment CEO Keith Pelley — spoke after the Leafs’ defeat with pointed public comments about how “everything was on the table” to get Toronto past its perennial playoff woes.
The first domino to fall was — predictably — head coach Sheldon Keefe, fired from his post on May 9 and replaced by Craig Berube on May 23.
That swap is just the beginning of what could — and should — be a transformative offseason for the Leafs. There’s more the club needs to address to avoid finding itself in a similar position this time next year.
ESPN had discussions with sources inside and outside the organization as a summer of change has already started. Here are the different angles in play for the Leafs.
LET’S ADDRESS THE ELEPHANT(S) in the room.
Mitch Marner is about to enter the final year of his contract. Ditto for John Tavares. That’s two members of Toronto’s so-called “core four” facing foggy futures. There is a full no-movement clause attached for both players in the coming season, so the Leafs aren’t at liberty to orchestrate any trades.
However, a no-movement clause doesn’t preclude Treliving from asking around about the possibility of moving either player. Due diligence is part of a GM’s process, and Treliving can present Marner and Tavares with any scenarios that arise — and potentially pique their interest in allowing a trade.
Alternatively, Toronto could offer contract extensions to one or both skaters, removing some of that looming unpredictability.
The latter option doesn’t appear likely.
Marner’s status in particular has been hotly debated. While the Leafs crashed and burned in the playoffs (again), Marner was practically nowhere to be found on the scoresheet. After putting up 26 goals and 85 points in 69 regular-season games, Toronto’s top winger added just one goal and three points in seven postseason tilts. It was a frustrating finish for Marner and the Leafs to not see his best game at the most critical time of the season — especially in a series where Toronto was getting shut down on a nightly basis by Boston’s Jeremy Swayman.
The noise surrounding Marner’s next chapter might not have gotten so loud if he had excelled in the postseason. His struggles might have also lessened appetites on both sides to begin extension talks when that window opens on July 1. In fact, it might behoove Marner to wait and see how the season begins — particularly with a new coach calling the shots — and then decide whether to re-up with the Leafs or explore free agency a year from now.
Marner is 27 years old. This is the prime of his career when his earning potential is at its highest. Toronto has already heavily invested in two other core pieces — Auston Matthews at $13.25 million per season and William Nylander at $11.5 million — and Marner seeking an equivocal payday (not to mention a raise from his current $10.9 million salary) may be too much for Toronto. And don’t expect Marner to take a discount just because he’s a Toronto-area native.
Tavares, on the other hand, could be more willing to accept less in order to stay. Toronto’s captain has continued to produce steadily — he scored 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games this season — and provides leadership in the Leafs’ dressing room. Tavares will be 34 when next season starts; any new contract will reflect that in both length and dollars.
Suffice to say, Toronto has questions to answer about two of its most important players. Having Marner and Tavares playing out these final seasons could be an unnecessary and potentially costly distraction if not properly managed. Toronto went through a similar situation with Nylander before he signed a seven-year extension in January. Marner’s situation will draw daily attention until there’s a resolution.
It won’t just be Marner fielding inquiries, either. His teammates will be peppered repeatedly about the negotiations, too. How Toronto balances those internal and external pressures will play a role in how the Leafs’ show up through the first half of their season (and maybe beyond).
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The numbers behind Sheldon Keefe’s firing from Toronto
With Sheldon Keefe out in Toronto, check out some numbers behind the Maple Leafs’ decades of playoff futility.
TRELIVING HAD SPECIFIC thoughts about who should succeed Keefe as Toronto’s next head coach.
The Leafs’ GM said he interviewed nine candidates for the position before zeroing in on Berube. The 58-year-old’s history checked all Toronto’s boxes:
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Berube’s bruising NHL career spanned more than 1,000 games (including 40 for the Leafs in 1991-92).
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He had racked up head-coaching experience in Philadelphia (2013-15) and St. Louis (2019-23).
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He was the Blues’ interim bench boss when he guided the franchise to its first Stanley Cup victory in 2019. That earned Berube the Blues’ full-time gig — and considerable respect around the league.
While researching candidates, Treliving encountered the same refrain from players willing to “go through a wall” for Berube. The extra endorsement helped persuade Treliving to make the marriage official.
Berube being a beloved player’s coach works into Treliving’s other motivation for Toronto moving forward: that it becomes a more well-rounded team. Focus in recent years has been trained mostly on the Leafs’ highly paid core skaters. Treliving wants everyone in the Leafs’ lineup to feel important, impactful and necessary to team success.
Toronto’s new coach has a methodology supporting that goal. At Berube’s introductory news conference, he explained a no-nonsense approach hinging on the Leafs never getting outworked. Achieving that comes only if the entire mix of top-flight talents and fourth-line grinders pull on the same proverbial rope.
When Keefe came on board in 2019 to replace Mike Babcock, he was determined to let players do what they do best. Keefe’s aim was to support the Leafs’ creativity on the ice, but the strategy produced an excess of too-cute fluff, from ineffective dropbacks to prioritizing east-west movement over north-south.
That’s where Berube’s team will differ from Keefe’s — in theory. Berube’s philosophy centers on a more hard-nosed game, digging pucks out of corners, winning battles and earning ice time through being accountable on every shift.
It’s predictable hockey, where every skater has a role and how to execute. That’s Berube’s ideology. It’s in lockstep with how Treliving would view a revitalized Leafs group.
The only question is: Can Berube pull that out of Toronto’s current group?
Berube already made adjustments to Leafs’ coaching personnel, bringing on former New York Islanders bench boss Lane Lambert and letting go of Dean Chynoweth. Manny Malhotra is also gone. Toronto will be surrounded by fresh voices with new ideas. Where will it all lead?
Treliving touted Berube’s “presence,” calling it something a coach either has or doesn’t have. How that carries over into the Leafs’ dressing room could determine what level of buy-in Berube gets from inside it. Berube will be blunt and straightforward with players and staff. He will prioritize sound defense over flashy offense. And Berube won’t let Toronto’s stars single-handedly drive the bus.
Berube is what the Leafs need to do a near-complete 180 turn from the team that left Boston, tail between its legs, in another early-May exit. But only if his new paradigm goes according to plan.
IN THE MEDIA they called it a “Shanaplan.” The term’s namesake never cared for that moniker.
The Leafs have been built in Shanahan’s image. He has been the architect of this Toronto team since stepping into the role of president and alternate governor in April 2014. At least one season under Shanahan’s reign (the 2015-16 campaign) was purposefully terrible: Toronto’s focus was winning the draft lottery and selecting Matthews. Mission accomplished.
But in a decade with Shanahan, the Leafs have churned through five coaches and four general managers while investing more than half their salary cap in four skaters; that in turn severely limited adding options around them. Toronto responded to that mandate with exactly one playoff series win — and seven series losses.
Now, the Leafs have earned plenty of regular-season success. Toronto notched consecutive 50-plus win showings from 2021 to 2023 and passed the 100-point mark in each of the past three campaigns. It just hasn’t led to anything greater. The Leafs are in exactly the same spot they were when Shanahan took over — and that’s on the outside looking in at the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
Those same Leafs who look unstoppable in the regular season are laughably beatable in the playoffs. It’s an awkward disparity for which the team can never adequately account.
There was no confirmation from Shanahan on his contract status at season’s end, but it’s believed he’s in the final year of a deal signed back in 2019. Pelley — who was named MLSE’s new CEO in April — has put his weight behind Shanahan and Treliving. For now, anyway.
When Shanahan said in May that Toronto would explore all options to improve the team, it was a blanket statement without specifics. Was that because Shanahan doesn’t have any? Or wasn’t willing to share?
All eyes are on Toronto’s top executive to see what he does next — knowing the decision will impact not only the Leafs’ on-ice future but Shanahan’s, too. He hasn’t shied away from tough choices in the past, from promoting Kyle Dubas over Lou Lamoriello in 2017 to not extending Dubas last year and hiring Treliving instead. Shanahan’s jockeying hasn’t moved the needle enough to make Toronto a clear-cut contender. That’s what has to change, in what might be a now-or-never summer.
LET’S ASSUME THAT Marner and Tavares will be Leafs in 2024-25.
So, how will Toronto improve around its identical core?
The Leafs’ defense is lacking in experience, with holes to fill. The depth chart is headlined by Morgan Rielly, and he deserves a top-tier partner. Toronto remaking its back end is a clear priority heading into free agency. The Leafs have a slew of upcoming UFA blueliners, including Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin and John Klingberg — all players Treliving acquired since taking over.
The Leafs will also have interest in players entering free agency, such as Carolina’s Brett Pesce and Dallas’ Chris Tanev. Toronto projects to have over $18 million in cap space to work with for the coming season, and that should help fund a blue-line makeover.
Treliving will also have a choice to make on restricted free agent Timothy Liljegren. The Leafs’ first-round pick in 2017 has had an inconsistent career in Toronto but could be valuable in trade talks. Same for restricted free agent forward Nick Robertson. Treliving will assess the Leafs’ entire roster through the lens of Berube’s structure; who fits, and who doesn’t? All of that will take shape through the Leafs’ offseason process.
Some easy wins for Treliving, though, would be re-signing free agents Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. Toronto has skill and speed to spare, but not with the grit Domi and Bertuzzi can bring to the lineup. Plus, they’ve both been in Toronto and want to return. That’s no small thing for the Leafs, who have watched players such as Ryan O’Reilly walk away to other teams after spending even a short time in Toronto.
Then there’s the oft-discussed possibility of the Leafs luring local product Steven Stamkos back home. The Tampa Bay Lightning captain — and Toronto native — is still a threat on the ice, but cap constraints might preclude him from being part of the Lightning’s future. If Stamkos were finally interested in a homecoming, then Treliving would be wise to explore a partnership.
After all, the Leafs can’t just run it back as before. They need outside help to improve, and that’s only going to come through additions matching synergistically with the talent Toronto already has and the system Berube is going to implement. Treliving’s task is to give Berube the right ingredients so the Leafs’ recipe won’t collapse in the playoffs — again.
THE LEAFS DIDN’T NEED another gut punch in the Boston series. They got one anyway.
In the hours leading up to warmups for Game 7, news leaked that Joseph Woll was unavailable because of injury. The Leafs were going back to Ilya Samsonov in the do-or-die showdown.
Why was this so cringe-worthy? Because it was Samsonov who’d backstopped Toronto into its initial 3-1 series hole, and Woll who dug them out of it by recording sensational back-to-back wins in Games 5 and 6. Woll sprained his back making a save in the dying seconds of that Game 6 victory. And that ultimately proved to be a back-breaker for the Leafs.
Samsonov got Toronto to overtime in Game 7, but Bruins’ forward David Pastrnak made it look all too easy beating the Russian netminder with the series-winning tally. That might be the last goal Samsonov ever allows for the Leafs. He’s about to become a UFA, and given the up-and-down season Samsonov just had — he was placed on waivers and briefly demoted to the American Hockey League after a difficult start to the season — it’s probably better for both parties to cut ties for good.
So who will replace him alongside Woll in the Toronto crease?
Berube will have thoughts on that question. He saw the difference a goaltender can make when Jordan Binnington played lights out for the Blues during their Cup run. The upcoming free agent class isn’t riddled with options, though.
Laurent Brossoit could be a solid piece in tandem with Woll — if Toronto is prepared to hand him the starting job despite a history of injuries. Brossoit lived in Connor Hellebuyck‘s shadow with the Winnipeg Jets but was 15-5-2 with a .927 save percentage in 2023-24. Anthony Stolarz and Cam Talbot are veterans with ample experience to balance Woll’s youth. Could the Leafs rely on either to play a significant role in the event Woll was hurt? That could be a red flag.
Toronto might have to explore a trade route to bolster its netminding. Liljegren or Robertson being available could aid in getting a deal done. Nashville’s Juuse Saros and Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom were mentioned in trade rumors ahead of the in-season deadline, and would be the top names making the rounds as conversations ramp up leading into the draft. Treliving was the GM in Calgary when Markstrom signed his current six-year, $36 million deal in 2020.
However the Leafs manage it, selecting their next significant goaltender will loom large — and the choice Treliving ultimately makes is going to have far-reaching effects on what the Leafs accomplish next season.
The first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs has heated up, and the end of many series is approaching. How many teams will move on with clinching games Wednesday night?
There are two potential elimination games on the docket. First up is Montreal Canadiens–Washington Capitals (7 p.m., ESPN), with Alex Ovechkin & Co. on the verge of sealing the deal over the Habs.
Staggered just 30 minutes later is the possible final game of the 2025 edition of the Battle of Florida (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). Will the Florida Panthers get win No. 4, or can the Tampa Bay Lightning draw the series to 3-2?
Finally, the St. Louis Blues visit the Winnipeg Jets (9:30 p.m., ESPN) in a series that sits at 2-2 following the first four, including major intrigue as leading Vezina Trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck continues to struggle in goal.
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Monday’s games, and the Three Stars of Monday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 5 (WSH leads 3-1) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Historically, teams that have a 3-1 series lead have gone on to win the series 90.8% of the time in Stanley Cup playoff history. The Capitals’ record in that scenario is 8-5, which is 62%.
Cole Caufield is taking many shots. His 21 shots on goal are the second most in the playoffs (trailing Nathan MacKinnon, with 31), and he has had 11 shot attempts blocked, which is tied for second most in the playoffs, behind Jack Eichel.
Rookie defenseman Lane Hutson is the sixth first-year blueliner in playoff history to record at least five assists in his first postseason series, joining Ray Bourque (1980), Janne Niinimaa (1997), Erik Karlsson (2010), Marc-Andre Gragnani (2011) and Quinn Hughes (2020).
Alex Ovechkin has scored the most goals in NHL regular-season history, and he is 13th on the all-time playoff list with 75. His next will tie Mario Lemieux for 12th.
Anthony Beauvillier is the first player in Capitals history to record an assist in each of his first four playoff games with the club, and the fourth with at least one point, following Dave Christian (five GP in 1984), Adam Oates (four GP in 1998) and Mike Knuble (five GP in 2010).
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Game 5 (FLA leads 3-1) | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
In the 2025 playoffs, home teams have a 23-10 record. That script has flipped in the Battle of Florida series as the road team has won three of four games.
The Panthers are 5-0 all time when leading a playoff series 3-1, closing out three of the previous series in Game 5. The Lightning are 1-5 all-time in a best-of-seven series when trailing 1-3.
Lightning forward Jake Guentzel is tied with Brad Marchand for the fourth most playoff goals since 2017 (40), behind Nathan MacKinnon (51), Leon Draisaitl (44) and Brayden Point (44).
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been doing his part: He allowed five goals combined in Games 2-4 (.936 save percentage) after allowing six goals in Game 1 (.647).
Matthew Tkachuk is tied with Nate Schmidt for the Panthers’ goal-scoring lead this series (three), and has 20 in 48 career playoff games with Florida; that is third most in franchise history, behind Sam Reinhart (22 in 59) and Carter Verhaeghe (27 in 65).
With each game and win, Sergei Bobrovsky adds to his lead in each category since the start of the 2023 playoffs (47 games played, 31 wins).
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck has encountered another postseason rough patch. He allowed 11 goals combined in the past two games, and has now allowed four-plus goals in 10 of 14 starts the past three postseasons. That is a 71% rate, and his regular-season rate for that same stat is 17% in the same three-season span.
After starting the series hot — with five points in the first two games, both wins for the Jets — Mark Scheifele has been pointless in the two losses in Games 3 and 4. Kyle Connor has been just slightly better, with four points in the first two and just one goal in the ensuing two.
Although the Jets outshot the Blues 31-23, Jordan Binnington was up to the task in Game 4, stopping all but one. Overall this postseason, Binnington has a .907 save percentage and 2.29 goals-against average. In the Blues’ Stanley Cup run in 2019, he finished with a .914 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average.
In-season trade addition Cam Fowler is playing in his first postseason since 2017, and he’s making up for lost time, leading the Blues with eight points (one goal, seven assists) through four games. Fowler’s career-high postseason point total was 10 in 16 games in the 2015 playoffs.
Arda’s three stars from Tuesday night
Ullmark recorded his first career playoff shutout, becoming the second goalie in Senators franchise history (with Craig Anderson) to secure a shutout in a potential elimination game.
Two goals, including the overtime winner, to cap a three-point night to send the Hurricanes to the second round with a 5-4 win. The Canes scored three goals in four minutes in the second to tie the game after going down 3-0 early. This was Aho’s 10th career postseason power-play goal, which ties Eric Staal for the franchise record.
Tkachuk and Stutzle are the first Senators teammates to have three points when facing elimination in franchise history. They’ll get another chance at it Thursday at home.
Tuesday’s scores
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
TOR leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark faced questions heading into this postseason, as his playoff career performances had not been up to par with his regular-season success. On this night at least, he was stellar. Ullmark stopped all 29 shots the Maple Leafs directed at him, and the Senators got goals from Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens, with empty-netters by Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk capping the evening. Full recap.
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Dylan Cozens doubles lead for Senators in Game 5
Dylan Cozens’ goal in the third period gives the Senators some breathing room in Game 5 vs. the Maple Leafs.
Carolina Hurricanes 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (2OT)
CAR wins 4-1, plays winner of WSH-MTL
It was a wild one Tuesday night in Raleigh, with eight goals between the two teams through two periods. The goalies shut it down for 40 minutes thereafter, with the teams going scoreless in the third period and first overtime. It wasn’t until 4:17 of the second OT when Sebastian Aho scored the game- and series-winning goal. Full recap.
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Sebastian Aho slots in a goal for Hurricanes
Sebastian Aho answers with the Hurricanes’ fourth goal of the second period to tie the game 4-4 vs. the Devils.
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
VGK leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
The teams traded a pair of goals early on the same Minnesota power play — William Karlsson scoring short-handed and Kirill Kaprizov notching the power-play tally — and Mark Stone capped off the first period with a goal at 13:24. The score would remain 2-1 Knights until 3:31 of the third, when Matt Boldy tied things the game at two. The Knights needed just 4:05 of the first OT period to score the game-winner off the stick of Brett Howden. Full recap.
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Brett Howden nets OT winner for Golden Knights to seal Game 5
Brett Howden’s close-range snap shot finds the back of the net to win it in overtime for the Golden Knights and claim a 3-2 series lead vs. the Wild.
Edmonton Oilers 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
EDM leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
After wins in the first two games of the series, the Kings are now looking up at the Oilers — the team that has beaten them the past three postseasons. The Kings were on the board first via an Andrei Kuzmenko power-play goal in the second, but Evander Kane would tie things up less than three minutes later. The eventual game-winner came off the stick of Mattias Janmark 7:12 into the third, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added an empty-net goal to put the game further out of reach. Full recap.
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Mattias Janmark puts the Oilers ahead in the 3rd
Mattias Janmark scores off the rebound to give the Oilers the lead in the third period vs. the Kings.
Will the Presidents’ Trophy curse claim a new victim this year?
For the past 11 NHL seasons, the winner of the trophy — awarded to the team with the most regular-season points — has failed to win the Stanley Cup. In fact, none of the last 11 Presidents’ Trophy winners have even played in the Stanley Cup Final.
All told, of the 38 seasons when the trophy has been awarded, just eight of its victors have also lifted the Stanley Cup. With the Winnipeg Jets‘ series against the St. Louis Blues in the first round of the playoffs knotted at two games apiece, could the curse be looming large again?
Here’s a look at the eight squads the Jets will be hoping to emulate that defied the curse:
Chicago Blackhawks, 2012-13
The most recent team to take home both the Presidents’ Trophy and Stanley Cup, the Blackhawks earned the regular-season crown in a campaign that didn’t start until January due to lockout. Patrick Kane would go on to earn Conn Smythe Trophy honors after a postseason in which he posted nine goals (tied for second on the team) and 10 assists (third on the team).
Detroit Red Wings, 2007-08
Winning the Central Division by an impressive 24-point margin, the Red Wings bolstered the best goals-against record in the league and raced to an impressive 115-point regular season. Henrik Zetterberg, the team’s top goal scorer in the regular season, won the Conn Smythe after a 27-point postseason.
Detroit Red Wings, 2001-02
Not to be outdone by their franchise counterparts six years later, the Red Wings turned in a regular season that not only saw them win the Central Division by 18 points, but top the overall league standings by a 15-point margin as well. The Conn Smythe went to Hall of Fame defenseman Nicklas Lidström, capping off the third of his three Stanley Cup triumphs in Detroit.
Colorado Avalanche, 2000-01
Combined with the Red Wings’ subsequent title, Colorado’s Stanley Cup win marks the only time in league history teams won both the Presidents’ Trophy and Stanley Cup in back-to-back years. Goalkeeper Patrick Roy was awarded his third Conn Smythe — a record that still stands today.
Dallas Stars, 1998-99
Dallas led the league in goals allowed, a trend that continued into the postseason. In just one of the Stars’ 12 postseason wins did the team concede more than two goals. Centers powered the squad’s offense — Mike Modano’s 81 regular-season points led the team by a sizable margin, while Joe Nieuwendyk earned the Conn Smythe.
New York Rangers, 1993-94
After the regular season saw the Rangers beat local rivals the New Jersey Devils to both the Atlantic Division crown and the Presidents’ Trophy, New York’s postseason didn’t lack for rivalry thrills either.
The Rangers met New Jersey in the Eastern Conference finals, coming away victorious in a seven-game series that featured three games decided by double overtime. New York’s subsequent Stanley Cup Final series with the Vancouver Canucks would go seven games as well, with Conn Smythe winner Brian Leetch scoring the opener in the decisive final game.
Calgary Flames, 1988-89
The 1988-89 NHL season was all about Calgary and the Montreal Canadiens, who posted 117- and 115-point regular seasons respectively — no other team in the league amassed more than 92. Fittingly, the two squads met in the Stanley Cup Final, where the President Cup champion Flames bested Montreal again, topping the Canadiens in six games. Defenseman Al MacInnis racked up 24 postseason assists en route to Conn Smythe honors.
Edmonton Oilers, 1986-87
Led by Wayne Gretzky at his peak, Edmonton raced to a 106-point regular season as Gretzky led the NHL in goals, assists and plus/minus as he earned his eighth Hart Trophy. Unsurprisingly, Gretzky was a driving force in the Oilers’ postseason march as well — he totaled 29 assists as Edmonton won its third Stanley Cup in what would end up being a run of four Cups in five years for the franchise.
Following two transfer portal windows and the NFL draft, college football fans might need Apple AirTags to track where their favorite players wound up.
This space is dedicated to those who decided to stay — commitments who boosted their teams’ College Football Playoff hopes. Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class could take up half the list: quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all back from the Nittany Lions’ CFP semifinal run.
“When we all committed here coming out of our ’22 class, that was one of our goals coming in as Penn Staters, we wanted to compete for championships, both Big Ten and obviously national championships,” Allar said. “And obviously we had a taste of that last year, and we know how close you are, so it’s just building off that and trying to make another run at it.”
Here’s a look at 13 players from 11 schools and representing five different leagues whose decisions to either forgo the NFL draft or sidestep the portal have beefed up their respective teams’ playoff chances.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan are entering their second season together and aiming to improve upon a stellar debut, which will help the Tigers contend for the SEC title. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 passing yards last year, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Even if LSU can’t win the league, Nussmeier’s return can help the Tigers earn an at-large CFP bid — especially if he makes a similar jump to his predecessors, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, who both won the Heisman Trophy in their second seasons in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier’s dad, Doug, will be nearby as the Saints’ offensive coordinator after winning a Super Bowl as the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach. With four new starters on the Tigers’ offensive line, there’s going to be an adjustment period, but if the “Nuss Bus” gets the time he needs, this should be a breakout season and his draft stock will rise with LSU’s playoff chances.
2. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Penn State has something Ohio State and Oregon don’t — a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might finally have the pieces in place to return to the top of the Big Ten and contend for a national title. Allar, who’s entering his third season as the starter, will be surrounded by NFL talent on the offensive line and in the running game, and could make a case to be Penn State’s first Heisman Trophy winner since John Cappelletti in 1973. Last season, he had 3,327 passing yards, the third most in a season in school history. With a second season under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and more options at wide receiver — plus a still-loaded tight end room — there will be no shortage of options for Allar to push the ball downfield more.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: On paper, Clemson has enough offensive firepower returning to elevate the Tigers into a deeper CFP run than their first-round exit in 2024 and they should have the Heisman-contending quarterback the program has desperately missed. Klubnik leads a Clemson offense that is No. 1 in the FBS in returning production (81%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Klubnik reestablished himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country following a down season in 2023. Last year, his 308 completions, 3,639 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns all ranked among the best seasons in program history. As he enters his third season as a starter under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s understanding of the offense and his relationship with Riley has grown, positioning Klubnik for what should be his best season with the Tigers.
4. Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen, RBs, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What their return means: The nation’s best running back duo returns intact, and they’ve got playoff experience along with familiarity and knowledge of the offense in coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s second season, all of which should boost the Nittany Lions’ hopes of winning the Big Ten and returning to the CFP. Singleton and Allen were projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. to be the Nos. 5 and 6 running backs available in the 2025 draft after becoming the first combo in Penn State history to each have at least 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Penn State ran for more than 200 yards in 10 games last season, and the Nittany Lions led all Power 4 teams and Notre Dame in rushing with 3,237 yards. Of course, it helps to have 6-foot-4, 350-pound offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane blocking.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: Sellers absolutely drew interest from other teams in November and December, but he re-signed quickly with the Gamecocks — and his commitment could be the difference between receiving or not receiving a CFP bid. The same can be said for edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who also attracted attention after 10.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. South Carolina made a playoff case with Sellers leading the offense last year, but the CFP selection committee didn’t rank the No. 15 Gamecocks high enough for inclusion. He improved throughout the season last fall, increasing his Total QBR from 52 in his first six games to 81 over the last six. This year, he’ll be working with Mike Shula, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal (twice)
What his return means: Illinois can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The importance of Illinois retaining its starting quarterback after a strong spring push from Tennessee can’t be understated. The Illini have a chance to be this year’s Indiana — a Big Ten contender with a manageable schedule that can play its way into the selection committee’s rankings with a standout quarterback and his supporting cast. After public speculation he might transfer for his final year of eligibility, Altmyer announced in December he would return to the team. He did it again in April, following the drama at Tennessee. Altmyer passed for 2,543 yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year, leading Illinois to a 9-3 regular season and a top-20 ranking in the Associated Press poll.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: K-State can win another wide-open Big 12 race and earn an automatic bid into the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Johnson never entered the transfer portal, but he attracted interest, especially after Tennessee lost Nico Iamaleava. “We got a damned wall built around him,” a K-State source told ESPN. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Expectations will be higher this year for Johnson, who threw for 2,712 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first full season as a starter last year. He also had 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the depth at wide receiver, K-State’s passing game could flourish this fall.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: A veteran offensive line that includes four returning starters from a group that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the SEC last season (20). It also means better protection for quarterback DJ Lagway, who could be one of the best in the country if he can stay healthy — and Lagway’s health is the most critical component to Florida’s success this year. According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter allowed one sack, one QB hit, six QB hurries and eight pressures — with only three penalties — in 728 snaps. The Gators again have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and Slaughter is the kind of veteran they need up front to help Lagway survive it.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: That the Buckeyes didn’t lose everyone from their national championship defense. Styles had an outstanding 2024 season with 100 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and five passes defended. His draft stock rose as the Buckeyes ascended through the CFP bracket, but he told reporters at their national championship celebration that he “wasn’t ready to leave yet.” Styles still has room to improve and grow, and his draft stock will continue to rise. He’s now in a position of leadership as one of just three returning starters on defense and the most experienced player among the rising seniors.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: The Ducks retained a 6-foot, 175-pound receiver who played a key role in advancing them to the top seed in the 2024 CFP, and they’ll need his help again — especially with the departure of Tez Johnson, who entered the NFL draft after leading Oregon with 83 receptions for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season. Stewart is Oregon’s only returning receiver who had more than 30 receptions in 2024. Stewart, who transferred to Oregon from Texas A&M, had 48 catches last season for 613 yards and tied for the team high with five receiving touchdowns. He was Oregon’s second-most targeted receiver in an offense that finished 13th nationally in passing yards. Stewart’s role will increase, and his decision to return will help the Ducks’ new starting quarterback, which could be former UCLA QB Dante Moore.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his decision means: The Longhorns have leadership, playoff experience, NFL talent and a familiar face returning to a defense that again has to replace multiple starters from the previous season. Taaffe, a rising senior who ascended from walk-on to All-American, had 71 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. His decision to return was driven in large part by the desire to win a national title at Texas and the devastation he said he felt following the loss to Ohio State. Taaffe will get another chance at the Buckeyes in the season opener.
The decision: Withdrew name from portal
What his return means: The Broncos were able to retain top talent from their 2024 CFP run, which featured one of the nation’s top defensive fronts, a huge boost for coach Spencer Danielson as he tries to own the Group of 5’s guaranteed spot as one of the nation’s five highest-ranked conference champions. Fely took visits to Miami and Cal before announcing on social media he planned to return to Boise. Fely, who spent the past three seasons at Boise State, started 28 games in the past two seasons. He had nine TFLs last year and 5.5 sacks.
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