College Football Playoff: Five questions for the committee
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
When the College Football Playoff was introduced more than a decade ago, and the sport’s championship evolved from two to four teams, even the system’s creators couldn’t answer some of the questions that arose — or they had a heckuva time trying.
What was the value of winning a conference title when two SEC teams could be in and two Power 5 conference champions were out? When do head-to-head results matter? And at what point are they dismissed? How do you measure a team’s schedule strength? And how much was a schedule’s strength derived from the perceived strength of a contender’s own conference?
When the 12-team CFP is unveiled this fall, it will again be a learning curve for everyone — fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s task — and its protocol — remains mostly unchanged, but an unprecedented 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best teams in the country.
In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will guarantee playoff spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, here are five questions for the committee.
1. Will strength-of-schedule evaluations change with conference realignment?
Losing isn’t something the top national title contenders are used to — but even some coaches expect that to change, and it could make things tricky in the committee meeting room.
The committee has historically rewarded teams that play tougher opponents, holding wins against CFP top 25 teams in high regard. With the Big Ten expanding to 18 teams and the SEC to 16, though, some CFP contenders now have a more difficult path to their own conference championship game. The rigorous SEC and Big Ten schedules are going to make it even more difficult for those respective leagues to produce undefeated or even one-loss conference champions.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, since 2014, 14 of the 20 teams that participated in the SEC championship game had one or no losses. During that same time frame, 11 of 20 Big Ten teams playing in the league championship game had one or no losses.
Now?
According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, only three teams have at least a 10% chance to finish the regular season undefeated (Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia), and none have more than a 20% chance to go 12-0. The only other time during the CFP era that no teams had more than a 20% chance to finish undefeated was 2016, and Alabama was the only Power 5 team to finish 12-0 that year.
What will that mean at Selection Central when teams from those leagues have multiple losses and are being compared with contenders from the ACC and Big 12 — teams with better records but against fewer ranked opponents?
“Do I think there’s going to be teams with multiple losses in the playoff? Yes, most certainly there is,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “How do you differentiate? I’ll leave that to the committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There’s going to be debate about what football teams get left out. Ultimately, everybody has a chance to go out on the grass and perform and play and earn the right to get in. Somebody’s going to get left out that probably shouldn’t. … We had that with the four-team playoff. There was probably three times I thought we were one of the best four teams but we didn’t earn it on the field.”
2. How many teams from the SEC and Big Ten will fill the bracket?
Using last year’s final CFP ranking with conference realignment for 2024, the Big Ten and SEC would have combined for 10 of the 12 spots.
SEC champion Alabama would have been in along with Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Big Ten champion Michigan would have been joined by Washington (the Pac-12 champion in 2023), Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.
There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify for the playoff, but there are guaranteed spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most likely those will usually feature the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and a Group of 5 winner. In 2023 those winners were Florida State (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12, now in the SEC) and Liberty (out of Conference USA, the highest ranked G5 winner).
How often will the conference champs from the ACC and Big 12 be their lone representatives?
3. How difficult will it be to rank the No. 8 and No. 9 teams with the No. 1 team looming?
The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn a first-round bye. Everyone else will play a first-round game on the home campus of the higher seed. The winner of the game between No. 8 and No. 9 will face the best team in the country in the quarterfinal. The loser goes home. Is this something the committee will think about — either consciously or unconsciously — as it compiles its final ranking on Selection Day?
Remember, these games will be played on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 this year, which could be very cold on some campuses — particularly in the Big Ten. (According to Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees last Dec. 20 and a low of 21 degrees.)
How much of an advantage might that be if they are hosting a team from the South?
Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home-field advantage because of its smaller size and location. The winner of that game would have played No. 1 seed and Big Ten champion Michigan.
4. What will the criteria be for ranking the top Group of 5 champion?
Last year, the selection committee’s most controversial ranking outside of the top four was its decision to slot undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which guaranteed the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty earned the Group of 5’s coveted bid to a New Year’s Six bowl without beating a single Power 5 opponent. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the easiest schedule in the country last year (No. 133) entering the postseason. Eight of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents finished with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical reverence for strength of schedule and was inconsistent with its justification throughout the rest of its Top 25.
Had the 12-team playoff existed in 2023, Liberty would have earned a spot in the field as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and the Flames would have bumped out No. 12 Oklahoma for the spot. Was Liberty’s selection an anomaly last year? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of 5, regardless of schedule strength? If so, does that translate to the rest of their Top 25?
In the four-team playoff, even the best Group of 5 champions faced a nearly impossible standard to reach the CFP — an undefeated record that included wins against Power 5 opponents and CFP Top 25-ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, which was then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only team to reach a CFP semifinal in the decade of the four-team playoff.
The criteria for reaching the 12-team field will be highly scrutinized because of the likelihood that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion will bump out a strong contender at No. 12. Remember, It’s not the committee’s top 12 teams. It’s the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. So if that fifth champion is ranked outside of the top 12, the unlucky 12th team will be snubbed to make room for it.
If the fifth champion is not ranked at all, then the selection committee will separately rank the Group of 5 champions and then announce the top school as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion along with the Top 25.
Liberty again doesn’t face any Power 4 opponents. Will it matter?
5. How will the playoff path change for independents?
It’s not just Notre Dame that will be impacted by the new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be treated as independents this fall, as they no longer have a Pac-12 conference championship game to play in.
If any of those schools qualify for the 12-team field, they can’t earn a first-round bye because they can’t finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. They would play a first-round game and need to win four straight games to win the national title.
In the past, not having a conference title game was a pro-con situation for the Irish. If they were already in the top four heading into Selection Day, the Irish didn’t have to risk losing and falling out. If they were on the bubble, though, there wasn’t another opportunity to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame had to sit and wait and hope for help while everyone else was competing.
Now?
The Irish should be in more often than not if they finish with no more than one — maybe two — losses, depending on their schedule, results and how everyone else fares. There is far less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference title. They still need to beat the marquee opponents, though, like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, and avoid upsets to Marshall.
Oregon State’s best opportunity will be Sept. 14 against rival Oregon, as most of the Beavers’ opponents are Mountain West Conference teams through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both the former Pac-12 teams need to leave no doubt they’re playoff material against unranked opponents because they may have limited opportunities for CFP top 25 wins.
Week 4 is here as we dive into another weekend of college football madness.
The biggest story going into Saturday’s slate of games is if Arch Manning will get his first college start. After capturing the attention of fans, he’ll have a lot to live up to in the spotlight as Texas faces UL Monroe.
USC will be making an appearance at the Big House for the first time in over 60 years as its visit will kick off conference play for the Trojans. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, No. 24 Illinois visits No. 22 Nebraska where one Illinois receiver lives out a different version of a dream he once had.
Before all of this plays out, Appalachian State gets things started as it hosts South Alabama on Thursday.
Our college football experts give insight on players, sound and storylines going into Week 4.
Jump to a section:
Texas QB depth | Illinois’ Pat Bryant | Must needs to win
New conference enemy | Quotes of the week
Stacked QB rooms are nothing new at Texas
Todd Dodge has a unique vantage point to the hysteria around Arch Manning, who made a national splash in his first extensive playing time at Texas after starter and Heisman Trophy candidate Quinn Ewers sustained an oblique injury.
Dodge, a quarterback guru and legendary Texas high school coach with seven state championships — including three-peats at two different schools — lived in the burnt orange spotlight himself. As the first Texas high school quarterback to throw for more than 3,000 yards in a season in 1980, he was a star recruit for the Longhorns who started as a celebrity backup himself.
“The most popular guy in any college town is the No. 2 quarterback,” said Dodge, now the coach at Lovejoy High School in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. “I’ve been the No. 2 where I couldn’t buy my own dinner and everybody wanted to let me know how much they thought I ought to be playing. And I’ve been the No. 1 who’s played well, who was probably over-fawned-over and then I’ve been the No. 1 when the team lost and I didn’t play well and I’m the biggest bum in three counties.”
He said fans often assume a quarterback room is filled with jealousy or back-biting, but in his career, he has found it to be the opposite, which Steve Sarkisian reiterated Monday when he said nothing changes if Manning starts. The bond between Ewers and his backup is evident, Dodge said. And he is familiar with both players and their families, namely Ewers, because his son Riley, was Ewers’ head coach at Southlake Carroll.
“They’re very, very talented young men that both could be playing almost anywhere in the country, but the No. 2’s family [the Mannings] put tremendous value in development and patience,” he said. “To me, that takes a little bit of the angst off of me as the starter knowing that I don’t have a backup who’s out there just every waning minute trying to convince people that he ought to be the guy.”
Greg Davis, too, experienced the attention in his time in Austin. In 1998, Major Applewhite went 8-2 as the starter, was selected Big 12 Freshman of the Year, then Texas landed the No. 1 prospect in the country, Chris Simms, the well-pedigreed son of New York Giants legend Phil Simms. For the next three years, Simms and Applewhite both had their high points, and both served as co-starters. How do you manage that situation?
“Obviously you don’t live in a vacuum,” according to Davis, offensive coordinator under Mack Brown. “You’re aware of what they say in the grocery store.” Davis has ties to the Mannings himself. He recruited Eli alongside Simms, recruited Peyton at Arkansas and offered Arch’s dad, Cooper, when he was coaching at Tulane.
Davis said the pressure inside the building doesn’t come from attention or fans in the grocery store. It comes from picking the player who had the best chance to win. For Dodge, there’s no question, especially after seeing Ewers beat Oklahoma, then Alabama and Michigan in huge road victories.
“Gosh, all of us Texas fans are fired up about what Arch did the other day,” Dodge said. “But in the big picture, there’s a reason why Quinn Ewers is the starter. When you start having to face Georgia and people like that, well, it doesn’t mean that Arch Manning can’t have a bang-up game against a Georgia or an Alabama. It’s just that Quinn Ewers has already done it.” — Dave Wilson
Illinois’ Bryant dreams big after being molded through tragedy
Tattoos are filling up Pat Bryant’s body, memorializing those whose lives once ran parallel to his but diverged and ended far too soon.
Bryant, the star senior wide receiver for No. 24 Illinois, now has four tattoos honoring his friends from Jacksonville, Florida, who have died in recent years. One of the most painful came only two days after Bryant and the Illini played in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, when Bryant’s best friend, Alim Denson, nicknamed “Twin,” died while in prison.
“A lot of those guys, I grew up playing sports with, we all had the same dream,” Bryant said. “Being able to reach my dream, knowing they’re looking down on me, they’re very, very proud. Also, for the kids of the community, I want to show them that there’s more to life than gun violence, drugs. I just want to be a great role model for my community.”
Bryant, who leads Illinois with 235 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season, has contributed to a new community, far from home. He was named a team captain last month, as he prepared for his third season as a starter.
The 6-foot-3 Bryant received 33 scholarship offers in high school, including all the in-state schools, except the one he truly wanted, Florida, where both of his parents attended. Bryant committed to Illinois in June 2020, essentially sight unseen, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But in mid-December, just before the end of a delayed and shortened season, Illinois fired coach Lovie Smith. The first high school signing day was just three days away. Wide receivers coach Andrew Hayes-Stoker called Bryant and encouraged him to sign anyway, which he did. Three days later, Illinois hired Bret Bielema to replace Smith.
When Bryant finally visited Champaign, there was some confusion.
“I flew in, thinking the University of Illinois was in Chicago,” Bryant said. “I get off the plane, we get in an Uber, they’re taking us to the dorm, and I’m just waiting to see the big skyline. And I see corn field after corn field. I was like, ‘There’s no way,’ but I adapted to where I was. Great college town.”
Bryant has built a strong connection to Champaign. Earlier this month, he and two teammates pooled their NIL earnings to donate backpacks and school supplies to local children. Bryant’s desire to give back stems in part from his father, Patrick, the athletic director of the Police Athletic League of Jacksonville, which places officers to help with youth sports programs around the city. Pat Jr. played basketball and flag football in the league.
“He’s been nothing but a class example of everything we believe in here,” Bielema said.
After seven touchdown catches in 2023, Bryant is on pace for a breakout season, which continues Friday night at No. 22 Nebraska. Bielema has received good reviews from NFL scouts on Bryant, who also excels with run blocking. Bryant’s path reminds Bielema of the Atlanta Falcons’ Casey Washington.
At a morning meeting after Illinois’ second win, Bielema recognized Bryant as the team’s top overall performer.
“He lives a routine every day that gives him an advantage,” Bielema said. “We talked about how he’s in the building by 5:15 a.m., he doesn’t have to be checked in by 6:30. It’s just an awesome thing to witness. He knows where he’s at, he knows how to take care of himself. Unfortunately, he’s had some tragedy in his life and it helps motivate him for the future.”
Bryant plays for Denson and the other friends he has lost, but he’s also focused on his current teammates.
“I feel like I have a powerful voice, I can relate to everyone on the team,” he said. “I feel people respect me, not only because of my game but because of the kind of person I am.” — Adam Rittenberg
What teams need to capitalize on to win
Utah: Any sort of analysis about this game for the Utes has to begin with the status of quarterback Cam Rising. There hasn’t been an official update about whether he will play, but it’s hard not to interpret the fact that he spoke to reporters this week about the game as an indicator he will be available — unless it’s an elaborate form of gamesmanship, which cannot be ruled out. After falling behind 14-3 to Utah State last week, the Utes were able to come back and win comfortably, but it’s important the Utes don’t follow that script again. Independent of whether Rising plays, the Utes are at their best when the running game does the heavy lifting, and it does not suit their strengths to go into catch-up mode. This is especially true against an explosive offense like Oklahoma State. The best-case scenario here for the Utes is if Rising plays, they establish Micah Bernard early and neutralize Ollie Gordon II to a reasonable degree. — Kyle Bonagura
Oklahoma State: With back-to-back games against Utah and Kansas State to begin the 2024 Big 12 slate, Oklahoma State is about to enter a season-defining stretch. What better way for the Cowboys to make a statement in the Big 12 title hunt than by figuring out the running game and unleashing reigning Doak Walker Award winner Gordon in Week 4?
Coach Mike Gundy says he’s “not concerned” about Oklahoma State’s start on the ground this seasos. But through Week 3, the Cowboys rank 105th in rushing among FBS offenses and Gordon is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, down from 6.1 in 2023 when Gordon finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting. Oklahoma State leaned on its passing game to storm past Tulsa last Saturday when Gordon carried 17 times for just 41 yards. Relying so heavily on quarterback Alan Bowman won’t be as easy this weekend against Utah’s 26th-ranked pass defense. The Cowboys’ broader College Football Playoff aspirations probably hinge on finding a way to get Gordon and the run game going. Saturday against Utah is a good place for them to start. — Eli Lederman
Get to know your new conference enemy
With so much anticipation heading into this season about the new West Coast additions of the Big Ten playing matchups like this one, it’s hard to believe how much USC and Michigan have already switched roles.
The defending national champion has not looked the part after losing its head coach in Jim Harbaugh, but also plenty of talent on the field such as quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Blake Corum, among several others. After losing 31-12 to Texas at home and struggling on offense last week against Arkansas State, this isn’t exactly looking like the encore Wolverines fans envisioned.
Now, USC comes to town for its first marquee Big Ten game, looking far removed from the bitter end it had to the Caleb Williams era last year. After firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, Lincoln Riley revamped the defensive staff with former UCLA coordinator D’Anton Lynn, and after a statement win over LSU in the opener and a shutout of Utah State at home, the Trojans are coming off a bye week and look to be on the way up.
Despite any momentum USC might have, the concept of playing — and winning — a road game in the Big House looms large on any opponent, especially one that hasn’t been there since 1958. Though USC players keep harping on their improved physicality in the trenches being the deciding factor in this game, Riley has remained adamant over the past week that despite its struggles, Michigan is a really good team with NFL-caliber players. You can see how much he is trying to will his team to not view itself as the favorites, even if the odds say so.
“Everybody wants to write the story after a couple of games in the season for everyone,” Riley said this week. “And it’s a long season, man. That’s a good football team that we have a lot of respect for. To have anything less would be a mistake on our part.” — Paolo Uggetti
Quotes of the week
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“Yeah, there’s an old quarterback from Muleshoe, Texas that’s going to come out of retirement, can see if his legs still got it,” Lincoln Riley, smiling, when asked if USC has someone on the scout team that can replicate what Michigan QB Alex Orji does on the ground. “No, we got a couple of guys that we’re trying to use a little bit. But he’s a really good athlete. I told people last night I was familiar with him. We recruited him a little bit coming out of high school, remember, I have a lot of respect for him as a player and an athlete.”
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“I thought that they were trying to make it hard on us, to be honest with you,” Mike Gundy said Monday with Oklahoma State staring down back-to-back meetings against conference favorites Utah and Kansas State to open Big 12 play. “Commissioner [Brett Yormark] is my buddy, but he doesn’t do the scheduling. So, I’ve sent the wrong guy pecans for Christmas. I should’ve sent the scheduling guy pecans for Christmas.”
NEW YORK — Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies clinched their third consecutive playoff appearance Friday night with a 12-2 victory over the New York Mets.
Assured at least a National League wild card, the Phillies can secure their first NL East title since 2011 with one more win this weekend against the second-place Mets at Citi Field.
With the division crown so close, Philadelphia planned a mellow celebration following Friday night’s game — hoping to let loose soon with a boozy clubhouse bash after locking up first place.
Seeking their third World Series championship, the Phillies overtook Atlanta for the division lead on May 3 and haven’t trailed since. Their victory coupled with the Braves’ 4-3 loss in Miami eliminated Atlanta from contention for the NL East crown — ending its six-year reign atop the division.
Alec Bohm had four hits and four RBIs, including a three-run homer, in Friday night’s blowout. Nick Castellanos had three hits and two RBIs, J.T. Realmuto added a two-run homer and the Phillies extended their NL East lead to seven games over the second-place Mets (85-69) with eight to play.
Philadelphia stole five bases — four in a six-run fourth inning capped by Bohm’s homer off reliever Adam Ottavino. Johan Rojas had a two-run double off starter David Peterson (9-3), who was pulled after just 64 pitches and 3 2/3 innings — his shortest start of the season.
Cristopher Sanchez (11-9) overcame a shaky start and five walks in five innings for the win. Philadelphia outhit the Mets 17-4.
Philadelphia (92-62) has the best record in the major leagues and is on track for a first-round bye in the playoffs. It’s the third time the Phillies have reached the postseason three years in a row (1976-78 and 2007-11).
Philadelphia won five straight NL East titles from 2007-11, then went 10 years without making the playoffs. A wild-card entry each of the past two postseasons, the Phillies put together consecutive October runs that ended in heartbreak.
They reached the 2022 World Series, losing to Houston in six games, and dropped a seven-game NL Championship Series to Arizona last year after leading the underdog Diamondbacks 2-0 and 3-2.
So this time, the Phillies are looking to go all the way and finally finish the job.
Philadelphia’s only World Series championships came in 1980 and 2008.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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