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When the College Football Playoff was introduced more than a decade ago, and the sport’s championship evolved from two to four teams, even the system’s creators couldn’t answer some of the questions that arose — or they had a heckuva time trying.

What was the value of winning a conference title when two SEC teams could be in and two Power 5 conference champions were out? When do head-to-head results matter? And at what point are they dismissed? How do you measure a team’s schedule strength? And how much was a schedule’s strength derived from the perceived strength of a contender’s own conference?

When the 12-team CFP is unveiled this fall, it will again be a learning curve for everyone — fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s task — and its protocol — remains mostly unchanged, but an unprecedented 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best teams in the country.

In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will guarantee playoff spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, here are five questions for the committee.

1. Will strength-of-schedule evaluations change with conference realignment?

Losing isn’t something the top national title contenders are used to — but even some coaches expect that to change, and it could make things tricky in the committee meeting room.

The committee has historically rewarded teams that play tougher opponents, holding wins against CFP top 25 teams in high regard. With the Big Ten expanding to 18 teams and the SEC to 16, though, some CFP contenders now have a more difficult path to their own conference championship game. The rigorous SEC and Big Ten schedules are going to make it even more difficult for those respective leagues to produce undefeated or even one-loss conference champions.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, since 2014, 14 of the 20 teams that participated in the SEC championship game had one or no losses. During that same time frame, 11 of 20 Big Ten teams playing in the league championship game had one or no losses.

Now?

According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, only three teams have at least a 10% chance to finish the regular season undefeated (Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia), and none have more than a 20% chance to go 12-0. The only other time during the CFP era that no teams had more than a 20% chance to finish undefeated was 2016, and Alabama was the only Power 5 team to finish 12-0 that year.

What will that mean at Selection Central when teams from those leagues have multiple losses and are being compared with contenders from the ACC and Big 12 — teams with better records but against fewer ranked opponents?

“Do I think there’s going to be teams with multiple losses in the playoff? Yes, most certainly there is,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “How do you differentiate? I’ll leave that to the committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There’s going to be debate about what football teams get left out. Ultimately, everybody has a chance to go out on the grass and perform and play and earn the right to get in. Somebody’s going to get left out that probably shouldn’t. … We had that with the four-team playoff. There was probably three times I thought we were one of the best four teams but we didn’t earn it on the field.”


2. How many teams from the SEC and Big Ten will fill the bracket?

Using last year’s final CFP ranking with conference realignment for 2024, the Big Ten and SEC would have combined for 10 of the 12 spots.

SEC champion Alabama would have been in along with Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Big Ten champion Michigan would have been joined by Washington (the Pac-12 champion in 2023), Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.

There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify for the playoff, but there are guaranteed spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most likely those will usually feature the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and a Group of 5 winner. In 2023 those winners were Florida State (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12, now in the SEC) and Liberty (out of Conference USA, the highest ranked G5 winner).

How often will the conference champs from the ACC and Big 12 be their lone representatives?


3. How difficult will it be to rank the No. 8 and No. 9 teams with the No. 1 team looming?

The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn a first-round bye. Everyone else will play a first-round game on the home campus of the higher seed. The winner of the game between No. 8 and No. 9 will face the best team in the country in the quarterfinal. The loser goes home. Is this something the committee will think about — either consciously or unconsciously — as it compiles its final ranking on Selection Day?

Remember, these games will be played on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 this year, which could be very cold on some campuses — particularly in the Big Ten. (According to Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees last Dec. 20 and a low of 21 degrees.)

How much of an advantage might that be if they are hosting a team from the South?

Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home-field advantage because of its smaller size and location. The winner of that game would have played No. 1 seed and Big Ten champion Michigan.


4. What will the criteria be for ranking the top Group of 5 champion?

Last year, the selection committee’s most controversial ranking outside of the top four was its decision to slot undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which guaranteed the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty earned the Group of 5’s coveted bid to a New Year’s Six bowl without beating a single Power 5 opponent. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the easiest schedule in the country last year (No. 133) entering the postseason. Eight of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents finished with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical reverence for strength of schedule and was inconsistent with its justification throughout the rest of its Top 25.

Had the 12-team playoff existed in 2023, Liberty would have earned a spot in the field as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and the Flames would have bumped out No. 12 Oklahoma for the spot. Was Liberty’s selection an anomaly last year? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of 5, regardless of schedule strength? If so, does that translate to the rest of their Top 25?

In the four-team playoff, even the best Group of 5 champions faced a nearly impossible standard to reach the CFP — an undefeated record that included wins against Power 5 opponents and CFP Top 25-ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, which was then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only team to reach a CFP semifinal in the decade of the four-team playoff.

The criteria for reaching the 12-team field will be highly scrutinized because of the likelihood that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion will bump out a strong contender at No. 12. Remember, It’s not the committee’s top 12 teams. It’s the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. So if that fifth champion is ranked outside of the top 12, the unlucky 12th team will be snubbed to make room for it.

If the fifth champion is not ranked at all, then the selection committee will separately rank the Group of 5 champions and then announce the top school as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion along with the Top 25.

Liberty again doesn’t face any Power 4 opponents. Will it matter?


5. How will the playoff path change for independents?

It’s not just Notre Dame that will be impacted by the new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be treated as independents this fall, as they no longer have a Pac-12 conference championship game to play in.

If any of those schools qualify for the 12-team field, they can’t earn a first-round bye because they can’t finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. They would play a first-round game and need to win four straight games to win the national title.

In the past, not having a conference title game was a pro-con situation for the Irish. If they were already in the top four heading into Selection Day, the Irish didn’t have to risk losing and falling out. If they were on the bubble, though, there wasn’t another opportunity to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame had to sit and wait and hope for help while everyone else was competing.

Now?

The Irish should be in more often than not if they finish with no more than one — maybe two — losses, depending on their schedule, results and how everyone else fares. There is far less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference title. They still need to beat the marquee opponents, though, like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, and avoid upsets to Marshall.

Oregon State’s best opportunity will be Sept. 14 against rival Oregon, as most of the Beavers’ opponents are Mountain West Conference teams through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both the former Pac-12 teams need to leave no doubt they’re playoff material against unranked opponents because they may have limited opportunities for CFP top 25 wins.

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Canes win series, spoil Markstrom 49-save outing

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Canes win series, spoil Markstrom 49-save outing

After the New Jersey Devils saw their season end in double overtime Tuesday night, goaltender Jacob Markstrom wanted to express his frustration via his stick. He thought about boomeranging it to the boards. Instead, he swung it hard against his goalpost, breaking it in half.

Sebastian Aho‘s goal at 4:17 of the second overtime in Game 5 gave the Carolina Hurricanes a 5-4 win and a 4-1 series victory over the Devils. It was the first puck Markstrom had fly by him in 37 consecutive shots on goal, dating to the second period. That included 18 saves he made in overtime, as Carolina marauded a short-handed and exhausted Devils defense but couldn’t solve the 35-year-old goalie.

“That was one of the better goaltending performances that I’ve witnessed,” Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour said of Markstrom, who finished with 49 saves. “He let in a few early that he’d like to have back. But once he got dialed in, you’re thinking it’ll have to bank off somebody, because we’re not beating him.”

Markstrom’s frustration wasn’t just with the overtime goal. The Devils built a 3-0 lead in the first period. Carolina scored three times in the first 5:40 of the second period to erase it. New Jersey responded with a Nico Hischier goal, only to have Aho knot the score at 4 moments later.

“We put up four goals on the road,” Markstrom said. “We should have brought it home. It should have been enough.”

But as his teammates noted, Markstrom’s effort in the overtimes should have been enough to win Game 5.

“We were under siege. He was outstanding. We were reeling,” coach Sheldon Keefe said.

“He played unbelievable. Marky kept us in that first overtime,” Hischier said. “I feel bad for him because he battled his ass off.”

Markstrom was acquired by the Devils last offseason in a high-profile deal with the Calgary Flames that was intended to fix the team’s goaltending, which ranked 30th in 2023-24. He won 26 times in 49 games with a .900 save percentage and a 2.50 goals-against average. He was outstanding, for the most part, in the playoffs: .911 save percentage and a 2.78 goals-against average in five games.

But Markstrom couldn’t overcome two things in the postseason for the Devils. The first were their injuries. Already without star center Jack Hughes, who had season-ending shoulder surgery, the Devils saw defensemen Luke Hughes, Johnathan Kovacevic and Brenden Dillon leave the series with injuries, with defensemen Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton playing at less than 100%.

“We had a few guys go down in the series. A few guys step up and battle. We’ve got to get better. We don’t like the result,” forward Timo Meier said.

The other factor was the Devils special teams. Their power play was officially 0-for-15. Their penalty kill allowed six goals on 19 Carolina power plays.

“That’s why we lost the series for sure. We couldn’t get the power play going. That’s on those guys, including me, that are on the ice. That’s definitely frustrating,” Hischier said.

But the Devils gutted out the series, pushing Carolina to double overtime in an elimination game despite those deficiencies.

“There’s a lot of will in this room,” Markstrom said. “It sucks right now.”

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DeGrom gets 1st win in 2 years as Rangers rip A’s

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DeGrom gets 1st win in 2 years as Rangers rip A's

ARLINGTON, Texas — Everything came together in the same game for two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers batters.

Texas had a much-needed offensive breakout while deGrom struck out seven over six scoreless innings for his first win in more than two years, though he had pitched well enough to win in several other starts this season.

“When was the last one, ’23? Yeah, it’s been a while,” deGrom said after the Rangers’ 15-2 win over the Athletics on Tuesday night.

“He earned it. He had great stuff tonight, he kept us on our toes,” second baseman Marcus Semien said. “We were just talking about how the time of possession was. You know, we were hitting for a long time and he’s getting quick outs. So usually that’s a good recipe.”

The 36-year-old deGrom (1-1) had gone 737 days since also beating the A’s on April 23, 2023, then made only one more start in his debut season with Texas before Tommy John surgery.

He scattered four singles and didn’t walk a batter in a 65-pitch outing (47 strikes). It was only that short since the right-hander didn’t return after an eight-run outburst in the Rangers sixth that matched their previous season high for runs in an entire game and put them up 12-0.

So just how efficient was deGrom? The right-hander honestly thought he was “probably in the 70s or something to 80,” as did catcher Jonah Heim.

“A lot a strikeouts that I feel like he just overpowered a lot of hitters, which is who he is. He’s got that electric fastball,” Heim said.

“My mechanics were pretty good,” said deGrom, a meticulous worker who was feeling good after a side session the day before the game. “I’m constantly trying to perfect it and get in the best positions that I can get based on performance and health.”

Texas entered the night last in the majors with 91 runs scored, and only 12 combined the previous six games. DeGrom had gotten only nine runs of support in his first five starts.

The Rangers snapped a three-game losing streak while setting season highs for runs, hits (18) and walks (nine). They had three bases-clearing doubles in the same game for the first time in team history – Adolis García and Wyatt Langford each had one during a four-batter stretch in that big sixth, and Kyle Higashioka added his three-run double in the eighth.

Their offensive outburst came after the full squad was required to be on the field for batting practice before the game.

“Good to see you guys break out and have a good game. … Some success, it’s contagious,” manager Bruce Bochy said. “You’re hoping this is something these guys can build on, build some confidence.”

For deGrom, he improved to 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his 15 starts for the Rangers since signing a $185 million, five-year contract in December 2022. He is 85-58 in 224 career starts, the first 209 with the New York Mets from 2014-2022.

“He was really good tonight. You know, I said when season started, it’s just going to get better with him as he builds up his strength and stamina,” Bochy said. “Really good command tonight, really good stuff. And it’s just getting better with him.”

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Yanks make history by again opening with 3 HRs

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Yanks make history by again opening with 3 HRs

BALTIMORE — The New York Yankees became the first team in major league history to open a game with three consecutive home runs more than once in a season when Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge and Ben Rice went deep off Baltimore‘s Kyle Gibson in the first inning Tuesday night.

New York started the bottom of the first of its March 29 game against Milwaukee with three homers in a row. In that game, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger and Judge needed only three pitches to hit three homers.

The Yankees added a fourth home run later in the first inning of both that game and Tuesday’s game, making them the first team to belt four in the first inning twice in a season.

On Tuesday night, the Yankees hit three of the game’s first five offerings out to right field.

“Grish got it going for us and set the tone for us early on,” Judge said after the 15-3 win. “When he goes up there and … sends one to Eutaw Street, it’s pretty impressive and gets you going.”

It was an ugly return to the majors for the 37-year-old Gibson, who made 30 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals last season before Baltimore signed him to a $5.25 million, one-year contract in late March. He’d been working in the minors since then before being called up before Tuesday’s game. He was finally pulled with two outs in the fourth after allowing nine runs and 11 hits.

“He gave up four homers in the first inning. That’s kind of a telling sign,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said. “At that point I’m just trying to figure out how we’re going to get through the game.”

After Rice’s home run made it 3-0, Gibson retired Goldschmidt on a grounder before Bellinger also homered. Anthony Volpe‘s RBI double made it 5-0 before the first inning was over.

Rice homered again in the second to make it 6-0. Austin Wells hit New York’s final home run — all six came with nobody on — with two outs in the ninth.

“It just shows that we’ve got a lot of depth in the lineup,” Rice said.

Not all the news was great for the Yankees, however. Jazz Chisholm Jr. left the game with right flank discomfort in the first inning.

Chisholm, who is hitting .181 with seven home runs this season, appeared to have hurt himself while he was batting. After being checked on, he stayed at the plate and hit a double, advancing to third on an error by right fielder Ramon Laureano.

Chisholm said he wasn’t worried about needing to go on the injured list.

“I’m really not as concerned as everybody else,” Chisholm said. “I tore my oblique before. I know it’s not torn or anything.”

The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.

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