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When the College Football Playoff was introduced more than a decade ago, and the sport’s championship evolved from two to four teams, even the system’s creators couldn’t answer some of the questions that arose — or they had a heckuva time trying.

What was the value of winning a conference title when two SEC teams could be in and two Power 5 conference champions were out? When do head-to-head results matter? And at what point are they dismissed? How do you measure a team’s schedule strength? And how much was a schedule’s strength derived from the perceived strength of a contender’s own conference?

When the 12-team CFP is unveiled this fall, it will again be a learning curve for everyone — fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s task — and its protocol — remains mostly unchanged, but an unprecedented 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best teams in the country.

In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will guarantee playoff spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, here are five questions for the committee.

1. Will strength-of-schedule evaluations change with conference realignment?

Losing isn’t something the top national title contenders are used to — but even some coaches expect that to change, and it could make things tricky in the committee meeting room.

The committee has historically rewarded teams that play tougher opponents, holding wins against CFP top 25 teams in high regard. With the Big Ten expanding to 18 teams and the SEC to 16, though, some CFP contenders now have a more difficult path to their own conference championship game. The rigorous SEC and Big Ten schedules are going to make it even more difficult for those respective leagues to produce undefeated or even one-loss conference champions.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, since 2014, 14 of the 20 teams that participated in the SEC championship game had one or no losses. During that same time frame, 11 of 20 Big Ten teams playing in the league championship game had one or no losses.

Now?

According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, only three teams have at least a 10% chance to finish the regular season undefeated (Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia), and none have more than a 20% chance to go 12-0. The only other time during the CFP era that no teams had more than a 20% chance to finish undefeated was 2016, and Alabama was the only Power 5 team to finish 12-0 that year.

What will that mean at Selection Central when teams from those leagues have multiple losses and are being compared with contenders from the ACC and Big 12 — teams with better records but against fewer ranked opponents?

“Do I think there’s going to be teams with multiple losses in the playoff? Yes, most certainly there is,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “How do you differentiate? I’ll leave that to the committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There’s going to be debate about what football teams get left out. Ultimately, everybody has a chance to go out on the grass and perform and play and earn the right to get in. Somebody’s going to get left out that probably shouldn’t. … We had that with the four-team playoff. There was probably three times I thought we were one of the best four teams but we didn’t earn it on the field.”


2. How many teams from the SEC and Big Ten will fill the bracket?

Using last year’s final CFP ranking with conference realignment for 2024, the Big Ten and SEC would have combined for 10 of the 12 spots.

SEC champion Alabama would have been in along with Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Big Ten champion Michigan would have been joined by Washington (the Pac-12 champion in 2023), Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.

There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify for the playoff, but there are guaranteed spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most likely those will usually feature the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and a Group of 5 winner. In 2023 those winners were Florida State (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12, now in the SEC) and Liberty (out of Conference USA, the highest ranked G5 winner).

How often will the conference champs from the ACC and Big 12 be their lone representatives?


3. How difficult will it be to rank the No. 8 and No. 9 teams with the No. 1 team looming?

The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn a first-round bye. Everyone else will play a first-round game on the home campus of the higher seed. The winner of the game between No. 8 and No. 9 will face the best team in the country in the quarterfinal. The loser goes home. Is this something the committee will think about — either consciously or unconsciously — as it compiles its final ranking on Selection Day?

Remember, these games will be played on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 this year, which could be very cold on some campuses — particularly in the Big Ten. (According to Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees last Dec. 20 and a low of 21 degrees.)

How much of an advantage might that be if they are hosting a team from the South?

Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home-field advantage because of its smaller size and location. The winner of that game would have played No. 1 seed and Big Ten champion Michigan.


4. What will the criteria be for ranking the top Group of 5 champion?

Last year, the selection committee’s most controversial ranking outside of the top four was its decision to slot undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which guaranteed the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty earned the Group of 5’s coveted bid to a New Year’s Six bowl without beating a single Power 5 opponent. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the easiest schedule in the country last year (No. 133) entering the postseason. Eight of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents finished with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical reverence for strength of schedule and was inconsistent with its justification throughout the rest of its Top 25.

Had the 12-team playoff existed in 2023, Liberty would have earned a spot in the field as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and the Flames would have bumped out No. 12 Oklahoma for the spot. Was Liberty’s selection an anomaly last year? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of 5, regardless of schedule strength? If so, does that translate to the rest of their Top 25?

In the four-team playoff, even the best Group of 5 champions faced a nearly impossible standard to reach the CFP — an undefeated record that included wins against Power 5 opponents and CFP Top 25-ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, which was then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only team to reach a CFP semifinal in the decade of the four-team playoff.

The criteria for reaching the 12-team field will be highly scrutinized because of the likelihood that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion will bump out a strong contender at No. 12. Remember, It’s not the committee’s top 12 teams. It’s the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. So if that fifth champion is ranked outside of the top 12, the unlucky 12th team will be snubbed to make room for it.

If the fifth champion is not ranked at all, then the selection committee will separately rank the Group of 5 champions and then announce the top school as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion along with the Top 25.

Liberty again doesn’t face any Power 4 opponents. Will it matter?


5. How will the playoff path change for independents?

It’s not just Notre Dame that will be impacted by the new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be treated as independents this fall, as they no longer have a Pac-12 conference championship game to play in.

If any of those schools qualify for the 12-team field, they can’t earn a first-round bye because they can’t finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. They would play a first-round game and need to win four straight games to win the national title.

In the past, not having a conference title game was a pro-con situation for the Irish. If they were already in the top four heading into Selection Day, the Irish didn’t have to risk losing and falling out. If they were on the bubble, though, there wasn’t another opportunity to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame had to sit and wait and hope for help while everyone else was competing.

Now?

The Irish should be in more often than not if they finish with no more than one — maybe two — losses, depending on their schedule, results and how everyone else fares. There is far less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference title. They still need to beat the marquee opponents, though, like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, and avoid upsets to Marshall.

Oregon State’s best opportunity will be Sept. 14 against rival Oregon, as most of the Beavers’ opponents are Mountain West Conference teams through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both the former Pac-12 teams need to leave no doubt they’re playoff material against unranked opponents because they may have limited opportunities for CFP top 25 wins.

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Preds’ Stamkos enjoys 2nd career 4-goal game

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Preds' Stamkos enjoys 2nd career 4-goal game

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Steven Stamkos rediscovered his scoring touch with a four-goal outing Thursday night, and it’s no coincidence that the Nashville Predators‘ trajectory is suddenly pointing up.

After a slow start to the season, Stamkos now has eight goals in his past eight outings, which coincides with the Predators going 6-2 over that stretch following a 7-2 win over the St. Louis Blues.

“I’m going to have to remember what I ate for breakfast. When you get to my age sometimes you forget,” said the 35-year-old, who opened the season with four goals in his first 22 games. “Sometimes you feel the legs are feeling light and tonight, when you score one early in the game, I think that’s the feeling you have. And it was nice to contribute in a big win for our group.”

The four-goal outing was the second of Stamkos’ 18-year career. He previously scored four times in a 7-4 win at Edmonton on Dec. 14, 2023, while with the Tampa Bay Lightning. And he became just the fourth Predators player to score four times, joining Filip Forsberg and Rocco Grimaldi (both in 2021) and Eric Nystrom (2014).

Stamkos opened the scoring 8:22 in by batting in his own rebound on a 2-on-1 break. He made it 2-0 less than three minutes later by converting a rebound in front after Jordan Binnington stopped Roman Josi’s initial shot from the blue line.

He then completed his 15th career hat trick with a shot from the high slot that deflected in off the skate of Blues defenseman Justin Faulk 12:06 into the second period. And his fourth goal made it 6-2 and came 3:27 later, when Josi’s shot deflected onto Stamkos’ stick in front, from where he backhanded it in behind Binnington.

It was his 102nd career multigoal game, the third-most among active players behind only Alex Ovechkin (181) and Sidney Crosby (110). And he became the first player age 35-or-older with a 4-goal game since Anze Kopitar in 2023.

Stamkos, the No. 1 pick in the 2008 draft, also is closing in on becoming the 22nd player to reach 600 goals. Stamkos now has 594, leaving him seven short of matching Jari Kurri.

“It’s a little surreal, to be honest, when you look at the history of this league and how many great players there’s been,” he said of the milestone.

What mattered more was the win.

In his second season in Nashville, Stamkos was part of the Predators’ 2024 offseason major spending spree that failed to pan out with the team missing the playoffs last season. Nashville (12-14-4) followed by getting off to a slow start to this season before its recent run inching the team closer into contention.

“It hasn’t quite worked out the way that we wanted to in terms of the success we’ve had as a team. But we’re rolling right now,” Stamkos said. “I think we’re playing some hockey that people probably expected us to play, and expected of ourselves. And we want to keep that going.”

Information from ESPN Research and The Associated Press was used in this report.

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Southern Miss promotes Anderson to head coach

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Southern Miss promotes Anderson to head coach

Southern Miss promoted offensive coordinator Blake Anderson to head coach on Thursday to replace Charles Huff, who recently left for Memphis.

The school had previously announced Anderson as interim coach three days earlier after Huff took the Memphis job.

Anderson, who previously was head coach at Utah State and Arkansas State, served this past season at Southern Miss as offensive coordinator, and his passing offense ranked first in the Sun Belt.

In 10 seasons as a Division I head coach, Anderson is 75-54, including nine bowl games and three conference titles.

In a statement, athletic director Jeremy McClain pointed to the success Anderson had as a head coach at his previous stops as one key factor.

“Blake is an exceptional leader, a great communicator, and has the respect of the players and the staff throughout the Duff Center,” McClain said. “We look forward to supporting him at the highest level and continuing the positive momentum for our program.”

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Indiana QB Mendoza named AP Player of Year

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Indiana QB Mendoza named AP Player of Year

Fernando Mendoza was named Associated Press Player of the Year on Thursday after leading unbeaten and top-ranked Indiana to its first Big Ten championship since 1967 and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

The redshirt junior quarterback was the overwhelming choice over fellow Heisman Trophy finalists Diego Pavia of Vanderbilt, Jeremiyah Love of Notre Dame and Julian Sayin of Ohio State. Mendoza received 32 of 51 first-place votes from a nationwide panel of media members who cover college football. Pavia got nine to lead the rest of the group, which also included Jacob Rodriguez of Texas Tech.

“I’m shining now but only because there are so many stars around me,” Mendoza said, describing his rise from lightly recruited high school prospect in 2021 to a candidate for the sport’s most prestigious awards. “There’s an analogy that the only reason we’re able to see stars in the sky is because the light reflects from all different types of stars. I have so many stars around myself — whether it’s my teammates, my coaches, my family, support staff — that I’m able to shine now in this light, and I’m so happy for everyone to be a part of this.”

Mendoza, the Hoosiers’ first-year starter after transferring from California, is the signal-caller for an offense that has surpassed program records for touchdowns and points set during last season’s surprise run to the CFP.

Mendoza has thrown for a Bowl Subdivision-leading 33 touchdowns and run for six, giving him a school-record 39 TDs accounted for.

He was the first Big Ten quarterback since 2000 with three straight games with at least four TD passes and no interceptions. His 21-of-23, 267-yard, 5-touchdown passing day in a 63-10 win at Illinois in the conference opener established him as a serious contender for national honors.

Mendoza is among 10 FBS quarterbacks who have completed better than 70% of their passes. He ranks among the most accurate passers on attempts of at least 20 yards, hitting on 23 of 43 (53.5%), and when under pressure (52.1%), according to Pro Football Focus.

Ranked the No. 72 quarterback prospect by ESPN when he was a senior at Christopher Columbus High School in Miami, Mendoza was pledged to Yale for almost six months before he decommitted and signed with California.

He sat out as a redshirt in 2022 and won the starting job for the final eight games in 2023. He was 10th in the nation in passing in 2024 and ranked among the top transfer prospects after the season. He landed at Indiana, where his brother Alberto Mendoza was the No. 3 quarterback last year. This year, Alberto is the top backup to his big brother.

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