What to watch for in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final — and which team will win
The first three games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final saw the Florida Panthers build a 3-0 lead, dominating most aspects of play against the Edmonton Oilers.
Games 4 and 5 were a different story entirely, as the Oilers charged back with two straight wins, with four points in each contest for superstar Connor McDavid.
Will the Cats close it out in Game 6? Or will the series continue to Game 7? Our experts are here to break down all the big questions heading into Friday’s game (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
What changed for the Panthers in Games 4 and 5?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Just an overall lack of consistency. For the majority of the first three games, the Panthers were a metronome. They were a threat to score in every period. Even when their defensive structure had its challenges, they still received consistent goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky in a manner that made up for those miscues.
What’s happening now appears to be a systemic breakdown in a variety of areas. Game 5 reinforced that belief. The Panthers limited the Oilers to just 23 shots, 10 scoring chances and 3 high-danger scoring chances. Those metrics are strong — yet the Panthers allowed four goals, not counting an empty-netter at the end. Again, it’s a lack of consistency or at least a disconnect.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Aside from the “McDavid factor,” and that Bobrovsky appears more beatable than he has essentially all postseason, earning 11 penalties through two games hasn’t helped. Not only since three of them led to Oilers power-play goals, but also because, as by design, it’s more difficult to score in one’s own favor when down a player — unless you’re on the Oilers: Mattias Janmark did so in Game 4 and Connor Brown tallied one in Game 5.
We can add the latter of those to the list of reasons we’re even discussing a Game 6 back in Edmonton at all. If Brown didn’t open with that shorty five-ish minutes in, I’m not sure the Panthers wouldn’t already be parade-planning.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Bobrovsky becoming human and McDavid becoming superhuman. More human than human, even. For Bob, that’s nine goals allowed against in the past two games, with .688 and .826 save percentages, respectively. Bob needs to transform back into the best version of Playoff Bob, like he had been (against McDavid especially) previously in this series.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Florida’s special teams went from impenetrable to vulnerable in a snap. The Panthers had allowed just two power-play goals in their previous 16 outings going into Game 4 — where Florida gave up three goals on the man advantage and two shorthanded.
Those are back-breaking totals in tightly contested times like these, and it just handed more momentum to the suddenly surging Oilers. Yes, McDavid is otherworldly and Bobrovsky showed he can be average, too. But Florida’s collective downfall was losing those battles they’d been winning handily throughout the postseason.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: These are all symptoms of the primary problem: The Cup was in the building, twice. The Panthers have sworn up and down that it didn’t matter, but Carter Verhaeghe let the mask slip before Game 5: “It’s a little different with the Cup in the building.”
Paul Maurice framed it — as Paul Maurice does — as the ultimate goal suddenly moving from after the game to being in front of it. Now your friends and family are in a building in Edmonton, waiting to see the Cup. And they’re all in Sunrise, plus all your fans, waiting to see the Cup. Florida’s starts in Games 4 and 5 are absolutely the byproduct of that tension. The Panthers are so much better when the expectations aren’t on them, and they’re punching from underneath. That might be the case in Game 6.
Connor McDavid will score ____ points in Game 6.
Clark: Three points; one goal, two assists.
Matiash: Two. A goal of his own and a power-play assist on Leon Draisaitl‘s first since forever ago (May 29).
Öcal: Three points total.
Shilton: Four points again; one goal, three assists.
Wyshynski: One goal and two assists to move two points behind Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record for points in a single postseason.
If the Panthers win Game 6, who wins the Conn Smythe?
Clark: It’s hard to ignore Connor McDavid for reasons that have everything and nothing to do with McDavid. One of the considerations Conn Smythe voters will likely weigh when it comes to any Panthers player is their consistency over the series. After Game 3, it appeared as if Bobrovsky and Aleksander Barkov were either the top two favorites or among the top three favorites.
Since then, Bobrovsky has struggled to stop shots while Barkov went from scoring four points and being on the ice for zero goals against through the first three games to going pointless while being on the ice for four goals against (2 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded and 1 5-on-5) in the past two games. By comparison, McDavid has had eight points in the past two games and has embodied how the Oilers went from struggling to find a grip to having a firmer grasp going into Game 6.
Matiash: McDavid could wrap up Game 6 minus-five while losing to the Panthers 7-0 and he’s still walking away with it. Hey, this is coming from someone who has been all over Barkov for the award up until recently.
Heading into Game 6, this generation’s Wayne Gretzky/Mario Lemieux has 20 more points than the most productive Panther (Matthew Tkachuk). We’re going to be referencing this performance for years and years.
Öcal: Connor McDavid, and it’s not even close. It’s a playoffs award not a Stanley Cup Final award. But even if it was, No. 97 broke two No. 99 records in the past two games. To ignore one of the greatest individual postseason performances in NHL history would be silly at this point. It’s already McDavid’s award.
Shilton: What is the Conn Smythe? An award for the player most valuable to his team in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Are we even discussing Game 6 probabilities without Connor McDavid? Would Edmonton be in the Cup Final at all if McDavid weren’t having an actual historically productive postseason?
Sergei Bobrovsky deserves all the accolades for what he has given the Panthers; there’s no doubt he has had an MVP-worthy playoffs, too. But, even his stellar run isn’t on par with what McDavid has done.
Wyshynski: The guy I said had an undeniable case to win the Conn Smythe whether or not his team captures the Stanley Cup, and that was before he posted his second straight four-point game.
Unless the voters have this unwavering commitment to the idea that a player from the losing team in the Final can’t win an award for most valuable player of the entire postseason — a rather daft notion, considering it has happened five previous times — then McDavid wins the Conn Smythe even if he doesn’t lift the Cup. He has led his team deep enough to justify it. He has shattered Gretzky’s record for assists in a single postseason and is poised to become the only player other than The Great One in 1987 to have a hand in over 50% of his team’s goals.
Forget the hockey context: This is one of the most dominant individual efforts in sports history. Of course it’s Connor McDavid.
The final score of Game 6 will be ______.
Clark: 4-3, Florida. Generating 26 shots over the final two periods of Game 5, along with the fact they outshot the Oilers 10-4 in the third period, was the most active the Panthers have looked in the past two games. We’ve talked a lot about how finding any sort of breakthrough could be a sign. Maybe this can be that for the Panthers.
And if it’s not? Then, we’re going to be asking if the Oilers are about to pull off the greatest comeback in NHL history, if not the best in the history of North American professional sports.
Matiash: 5-3 Panthers. Florida rides the momentum of what they did right in Game 5. Happy to be wrong here though, as I’m salivating at the thought of a Game 7 on Monday.
Öcal: 4-2, Oilers. Bring on Game 7!
Shilton: 5-4, Florida. The Panthers won’t lose three in a row. Florida was all over Edmonton in the third period of Game 5 (just like the Oilers took it to their opponent in the third frame of Game 3) and it will set a tone for how they start in Game 6. This is the Panthers’ time.
Wyshynski: 4-3 Florida. As noted above, Game 5 felt very much like Game 3 in the sense that one team took the win and the other team took some confidence away in their loss. For about 25 minutes, the Panthers looked like themselves again, and Tkachuk looked like the guy we saw in 2023.
His line with Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues will generate multiple goals, Sam Reinhart adds one himself and the power play finally converts. Bobrovsky doesn’t fumble the bag and the Panthers hang on in the final minute to win the Stanley Cup for the first time.
On New Year’s Eve, Penn State became the first team to lock up a spot in a College Football Playoff semifinal when it beat Boise State 31-14 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. Texas needed double overtime to escape a gritty Arizona State team 39-31 on New Year’s Day and advance to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, where it will face Ohio State on Jan. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Penn State, which has yet to trail in a CFP game, will face the winner of Notre Dame–Georgia in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl was postponed until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday after a deadly truck attack in New Orleans that killed at least 15 and injured dozens more.
While Penn State awaits its opponent, here’s an early look at the semifinal matchup between Texas and Ohio State. — Heather Dinich
When: Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the quarterfinals: Texas has gone through quite an identity crisis over the past six weeks on offense. The Longhorns went from rushing domination in their final two regular-season games, to not being able to run in the SEC championship, back to rushing domination in the first round against Clemson, back to struggling on the ground against Arizona State. So which Texas rushing attack will show up against Ohio State? There is no doubt that Texas will need a bigger rushing effort to beat the Buckeyes. Perhaps offensive tackle Cameron Williams will be healthy enough to play and will help make a difference. Either way, we learned that Texas still has work to do to put together a complete offensive performance.
X factor: TE Gunnar Helm. Texas likes to utilize its tight ends in the offense Steve Sarkisian runs, and Helm came up huge in the win over Arizona State, with three catches for 56 yards — and the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Helm was big in the opening-round win over Clemson, too, with six catches for 77 yards and a score. Sarkisian praised him leading into the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, saying, “The multiplicity of the things that the tight end has to do in our systems make him extremely valuable. When you have a good one, I think that that makes our lives a lot easier from a playcaller perspective.”
How Texas wins: Texas has been ranked the No. 1 defense in the country for the bulk of the season for a reason, and we saw that for large swaths of its win over Arizona State. The Longhorns will have to continue to set the tone up front and get after Will Howard to make him uncomfortable. Michigan provided the blueprint for winning in November, when it dominated the Buckeyes on both lines of scrimmage. Texas certainly has the potential to do that with its defensive and offensive fronts. But the Longhorns will have to absolutely be better on their offensive line to have any shot to win. They were overwhelmed at times by a smaller Arizona State defensive front. — Andrea Adelson
What we learned in the quarterfinals: No one can stop Jeremiah Smith, and by extension, the Ohio State offense. Against an Oregon team that defeated them in October, the Buckeyes came out of the gates at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential ready to prove the Ducks didn’t have their number. Thanks to Smith, who caught five balls for 161 yards and had two touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards in the first half alone (he finished with 187 yards), Ohio State looked to be playing at a different speed, as Oregon seemed helpless on both sides of the ball. The freshman wide receiver was a blur, speeding past the Ducks’ secondary with ease while making his case for being not just the best freshman in the country — or the best wide receiver — but one of the best players in the sport. It helped that nearly every Ohio State skill player who touched the ball found gold — running back TreVeyon Henderson averaged double-digit yards per carry while adding two touchdowns, and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka added his own tremendous play in a 42-yard touchdown grab in the first half. It was all a reminder that the best version of this Buckeyes team might just be unstoppable.
X factor: RB TreVeyon Henderson. Texas’ defense might have no choice but to sell out to stop Smith, and though Smith might still get his, it will certainly open things up for other wideouts on the Buckeyes’ offense in addition to Henderson. The senior has not been particularly splashy this season, but he has been consistent. In Pasadena, however, he looked as good as ever, recording his first 100-yard game of the season. There’s no question that Ohio State’s air game is its strength, but if it can pair it with more consistent running from Henderson, the Longhorns will have a tough time on defense.
How Ohio State wins: Short of doing exactly what they did to dominate Oregon in Pasadena, the Buckeyes have a clear recipe for success now. The confidence they inherited from avenging their loss to the Ducks should be enough proof that they have the talent and execution to beat any team remaining, especially Texas. A healthy dose of Smith will be essential, and the stout defense that has had more sacks than any other playoff team so far will need to pressure Quinn Ewers, but a lot will certainly fall on Will Howard‘s shoulders. In the Rose Bowl, Howard looked as comfortable as he has looked all season long. He had no crucial mistakes, threw three touchdown passes and found Smith over and over again to much success. He’ll have to do more of the same in the Cotton Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti
OTTAWA, Ontario — Danny Nelson scored the eventual game-winner in the third period and Trey Augustine made 38 saves, leading the United States to a 4-1 win over Canada on Tuesday night and into the top spot in Group A at the world junior hockey championship.
Cole Hutson and Cole Eiserman each had a goal and an assist for the Americans. Ryan Leonard scored into an empty-net.
Bradly Nadeau scored for Canada, which allowed three goals on seven American power plays. Carter George stopped 24 shots.
Canada finished third in the pool and will face Czechia in Thursday’s quarterfinals. The Americans face Switzerland.
“We’re not here to beat Canada tonight,” Augustine said. “We’re here to win a gold medal.”
The other matchups will have Group B winner Sweden take on Latvia, and Finland square off with Slovakia.
Canada and the U.S. played in the same building exactly 16 years to the day at the 2009 event, when John Tavares scored a memorable hat trick in Canada’s 7-4 comeback victory on New Year’s Eve. The Canadians went on to win a fifth straight gold.
“That’s something that’s storybook-like,” Eiserman said of beating Canada on home soil in the tournament’s marquee round-robin matchup. “Something that you’ve dreamt of.”
The teams met on New Year’s Eve for the first time since Dec. 31, 2016, when Canada picked up a 3-1 victory in Toronto. The U.S. got revenge less than a week later with a 5-4 shootout win in the title game in Montreal.
The Americans opened this under-20 tournament with a 10-4 win over Germany followed by a 5-1 victory over Latvia before losing to Finland 4-3 in overtime. Canada started with a 4-0 defeat of Finland before falling to Latvia 3-2 in a shootout and then rebounding to beat Germany 3-0.
The Canadians had a power play to start the third period while trailing 1-0 after Leonard took a roughing call at the end of the second. Nadeau blasted a one-timer for his first goal of the tournament off a feed from Brayden Yager at 1:58.
Nelson restored the U.S. lead at 4:22, taking a pass from Huston and beating George with his third goal.
The U.S. scored its third power-play goal of the game at 13:21 when Eiserman scored his second and put the game out of reach at 3-1 after a boarding penalty by Canada’s Easton Cowan.
Leonard scored into the empty net with 1:52 left in regulation to spark chants of “U-S-A! U-S-A!”
George, who entered with consecutive shutouts that bookended the Latvia loss, saw his streak end at 133:02 on Tuesday’s first power play to silence the beer-chugging crowd at Canadian Tire Centre.
In the first period, Hutson took advantage of a failed Canadian clearing attempt on a U.S. power play and scored his second goal of the tournament.
Tempers flared later in the period when Canada’s Luca Pinelli and Zeev Buium of the U.S. went off for roughing and then jawed at each other in the penalty box.
Leonard hit another post for the Americans and Carson Rehkopf fired an effort that Augustine, who entered with an .879 save percentage in two starts, got enough of with his glove at the other end before tempers again boiled over at the buzzer.
In another Group A game, Finland beat Latvia 3-0 and finished second in the group. In Group B, Switzerland beat Kazakhstan 3-1 to secure a spot in the quarterfinal round. Also, Sweden completed a sweep of its four preliminary round games, beating Czechia 4-2 in another Group B game.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
New York Rangers star goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been placed on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, an NHL source told ESPN on Tuesday.
The Rangers recalled NHL veteran Louis Domingue from the AHL Hartford Wolf Pack. Shesterkin’s backup, Jonathan Quick, is 5-4-0 in 12 games this season with a .907 save percentage and a 2.69 goals-against average.
Shesterkin stopped 21 of 25 shots in the Rangers’ 5-3 loss to the Florida Panthers on Monday night. During that game, Panthers forward Sam Bennett was checked into Shesterkin’s upper body by Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren. Shesterkin was down on the ice briefly but didn’t leave the game.
Shesterkin, 29, is 11-15-1 in 27 games this season with a .906 save percentage and a 3.10 goals-against average. While the Rangers are 20th in goals against per game this season, Shesterkin is second among all goalies with 13 goals saved above replacement, according to Stathletes.
It has been an eventful month for Shesterkin. He signed a contract extension with the Rangers on Dec. 6 that makes him the highest-paid goalie in NHL history: an eight-year, $92 million deal that starts in the 2025-26 season. The 2022 Vezina Trophy winner is in the final year of a four-year deal with an average annual value of $5.66 million.
The injury to Shesterkin is the latest bit of adversity for the Rangers this season. They are 16-19-1 after 36 games, having lost four in a row and going 2-8-0 in their past 10. The Rangers were seven points out of a playoff spot entering Tuesday night.
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