Why a six-inning minimum for starting pitchers could rock MLB — and is more realistic than you might think
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
GOING INTO THE 2023 season, Major League Baseball implemented the most extreme set of rule changes in the history of the game. The league instituted a pitch clock, eliminated the shift, enlarged the bases and placed a limit on pickoff throws. The changes have been significant leading to shorter games and more action on the basepaths. While fans are still getting used to those headline-making adjustments, the league is already identifying its next set of goals aimed at improving the product on the field.
The commissioner’s office wants starting pitchers to spend more time on the mound — pitching deeper into games — and less time in the operating room undergoing surgery on their arms. Baseball also wants more balance in a sport that has revolved around strikeouts in recent seasons.
“We are interested in increasing the amount of action in the game, restoring the prominence of the starting pitcher and reducing the prevalence of pitching injuries,” an MLB official told ESPN. “There are a whole host of options in addressing those issues.”
The league has discussed a limit to the size of pitching staffs and the double-hook DH, according to sources familiar with the discussion. There is some belief around the game, however, that one idea could be a panacea: requiring starting pitchers to go at least six innings every time they take the mound.
ESPN spoke to executives and players around the league about what such a change would mean for the future of baseball.
Would it lead to more scoring and fewer injuries? Would pitchers have to pitch differently to survive? And how would executives make adjustments in their own organizations leading up to such a drastic change?
THE PRIMARY GOAL of a minimum-innings rule would be to immediately restore the prestige of the starting pitcher. Fans would be able to tune in to a game knowing that he would be on the mound for the majority of it.
“I do that anyway,” Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo said with a smirk. “We all want to go at least six.”
But in reality, starting pitchers are increasingly unlikely to reach that goal. In 2014, starting pitchers averaged just under six innings per start (5.97), according to ESPN Stats & Information. This season, that figure stands at 5.25 and is down to 4.3 in Triple-A.
MLB acknowledges that adding such a rule would not be as simple as forcing every starter to pitch at least six innings every time out — exceptions would have to be included.
The objective is to prioritize starting pitching, not to leave a struggling starter in to reach the innings threshold while his ERA skyrockets or at the risk of injury. So the league’s conversations have included carve-outs, instances when pitchers would not have to pitch the required six innings. Some instances when a starter would be allowed to leave early might include:
Outside of those exceptions, pitchers would have a mandate to make it through at least six innings. That would force teams to rethink their pitching staffs to meet the new standards.
“You would start to think about a repertoire that would get you through the lineup three times,” Chicago Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “You would want to develop that ability between now and when they implement the rule.”
In the same way that the pitch clock was tested throughout the minors before being brought to the majors, a six-inning requirement for starters would take years of advance notice before arriving in MLB. The process for teams would also need to begin at the lower levels, in finding out which pitchers have what it takes to succeed in the new role of a starter and by pushing younger pitchers harder before they arrive in the majors.
“I think we would look to build up pitch counts a bit sooner than we currently do in the minor leagues,” Los Angeles Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes said.
The league believes a trickle-down impact on the amateur world would also take place — especially if teams begin to prioritize command and efficiency.
“The broader question of simply developing pitchers to pitch deeper in games is one that we talk about all the time within the industry, and it’s something that probably doesn’t get fixed if we attempt to address it only at the professional levels,” an NL assistant general manager said. “I think teams would approach their top prospects the same but maybe invest a bit more in the middle draft rounds to guys they think can command the ball with upside.”
PROPONENTS OF A six-inning mandate hope the biggest impact would take place behind the scenes. The belief is that pitchers would have to stop relying so heavily on max velocity and would set up their training around navigating longer starts, rather than overpowering stuff. And, in theory, starters pacing themselves to pitch deeper into games could help curtail the alarming rate of major arm injuries suffered by pitchers — and also give hitters a better chance at the plate.
“You would have to push command over stuff,” Arizona Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen said. “Pushing [pitching to] contact would be the biggest thing to prepare guys to throw six innings on a consistent basis.
“There would have to be some pullback on velocity, though that’s a tough thing, because that’s where you get outs.”
To make up for no longer being able to rely on max velocity to overwhelm hitters, the hope is that pitchers would then focus on the finer points of the craft to outmaneuver batters.
“It’s different pitch mixes, different attack plans, different looks,” Chicago Cubs GM Carter Hawkins said. “It might weed out the guy that isn’t as efficient.”
While executives were more than willing to dive into a hypothetical of how this rule would play out, they aren’t sure if pitchers can “go backward” from the current state of pitching, as one assistant GM put it.
“The genie is out of the bottle when it comes to max velocity. I’m not sure it can go back in, no matter the rules.”
Some execs mentioned specific smaller changes they would be interested in exploring before something so drastic. Hazen pointed to a five-batter minimum for relievers that could organically force managers to leave starters in the game longer, as well as give more recovery time to relievers who might pitch longer in each game but not as often.
If the league did go forward with an inning minimum, one possibility would be pairing it with incentive for teams. Would habits change if teams were given an extra draft pick (or more) if their starting staff totaled 900 innings or more, while requiring starters to go six innings each time out?
“Incentivization is great in theory,” said one assistant GM. “But in reality, managers aren’t going to be making in-game decisions based on his team gaining an extra draft pick six months later. But if the rules force us there, that’s another story.”
At a minimum, the rule would keep managers from deciding to pull a starter who is going well just because analytics say it’s time. Also, openers would be eliminated from the game.
The league isn’t yet at the experimental stage for these ideas, but conversations have begun. As we learned with the implementation of the last set of rules, MLB is willing to take seismic action when the league believes it is for the betterment of the game. The goal is to see a star pitcher on the mound for as long as possible as frequently as possible — and a six-inning minimum is a potential path to making it a reality.
“It’s interesting,” Hazen said. “The pitch count being at around 100 pitches has been there for about 20 years. From an efficiency standpoint, it’s just a lot harder to pitch deep now. We would need to find a different way to train them. The carve-outs are the largest variable, but this sport always adjusts. We would have to.”
The American Athletic Conference will require each member except Army and Navy to provide athletes with at least $10 million in additional benefits over the next three years, making it the only league so far to set a minimum standard with revenue sharing expected to begin in Division I sports in July.
AAC presidents approved the plan last week after they reviewed a college sports consulting firm’s study of the conference’s financial wherewithal. The three-year plan will go into effect once a federal judge approves the $2.8 billion House vs. NCAA antitrust settlement, which is expected next month.
Commissioner Tim Pernetti said Wednesday that 13 of the 15 AAC schools would opt in to the House settlement, which, among other things, provides for payments to athletes of up to $20.5 million per school the first year. Army and Navy are excluded because they do not offer athletic scholarships and their athletes cannot accept name, image and likeness money.
“For the conference, stepping forward and saying we’re not only opting in but here’s what we’re going to do at a minimum signifies the serious nature and our commitment to not only delivering a great experience for student-athletes but to success,” Pernetti said.
Officials from the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and Southeastern Conference told The Associated Press that each of their schools will be free to decide their level of revenue sharing. Power-conference schools generate the most television revenue and most are expected to fund the full $20.5 million or close to it.
The AAC plan, first reported by Yahoo Sports, would allow each school to set its own pace to hit the $10 million total by 2027-28. For example, a school could share $2 million the first year, $3 million the second and $5 million the third.
The AAC considers new scholarships, payments for academic-related expenses and direct payments as added benefits. Each school, with some limits, generally can apportion those as it sees fit.
“We wanted to provide flexibility for everyone to get to the number however it makes the most sense to them,” Pernetti said. “What I expect is it’ll be a variety of different approaches. I’m pretty certain many of the institutions are going to exceed [$10 million] in year one.”
Failure to reach $10 million over three years could jeopardize a school’s membership, but Pernetti said there will be annual reviews of the policy.
“All our universities made the decision a long time ago to deliver athletics and this experience at the highest level,” Pernetti said. “To me, this isn’t about revisiting that. This is about making sure we’re setting ourselves up for success in the future.”
Sports
‘I wasn’t trying to build anything in a lab’: How Jacob deGrom is learning to throw smarter, not harder
SURPRISE, Ariz. — When Jacob deGrom stepped on the mound for his first live batting practice this spring, a voice in his head told him: “All right, I want to strike everybody out.” That instinct had guided deGrom to unimaginable heights, with awards and money and acclaim. It is also who he can no longer be. So deGrom took a breath and reminded himself: “Let’s not do that.”
Nobody in the world has ever thrown a baseball like deGrom at his apex. His combination of fastball velocity, swing-and-miss stuff and pinpoint command led to one of the greatest 90-start stretches in baseball. From the beginning of 2018 to the middle of 2021, he was peak Pedro Martinez with a couple of extra mph — Nolan Ryan’s fastball, Steve Carlton’s slider, Greg Maddux’s precision.
Then his arm could not hold up anymore, and for more than three years, deGrom healed and got hurt, healed and needed Tommy John surgery in June 2023 to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, then healed once more. That delivers him to this moment, in camp with the Texas Rangers, ready to conquer a 162-game season for the first time since 2019 — and reminding himself when to hold back.
The instinct to be all he can be never will go away. But instead, as his efforts at learning to throttle down manifest themselves daily and were particularly evident in those early live ABs, deGrom induced ground balls on early contact and ended his day with a flyout on the second pitch of the at-bat.
DeGrom had blown out his elbow once before, as a minor leaguer in October 2010, and this time he understands his mandate. He is now 36, and nobody has returned to have any sort of substantive career after a third Tommy John, so keeping his arm healthy as he comes back from his second is imperative. This is the last phase of deGrom’s career, and to maximize it, he must change. It does not need to be a wholesale reinvention. For deGrom, it is more an evolution, one to which he accustomed himself by watching video of his past self.
DeGrom at his best simply overwhelmed hitters. At-bats turned into lost causes. He was the best pitcher in the world in 2018, when he threw 217 innings of 1.70 ERA ball and struck out 269 with just 46 walks and 10 home runs allowed. The following year, he dedicated himself to being even more, winning his second Cy Young and proving he was no one-season fluke. DeGrom routinely blew away one hitter, then made the next look like he’d never seen a slider. He painted the plate with the meticulousness of a ceramic artist.
“I look at the best — ’18,” deGrom said of his first Cy Young season. “There were times where I hit 100 or close to it, but I think I sat around 96.”
He did. Ninety-six mph on the dot for his high-spin four-seam fastball. It jumped to 96.9 in 2019, 98.6 in 2020 and 99.2 in 2021. In the 11 games deGrom pitched toward the end of 2022, it was still 98.9 — and then 98.7 before he blew out again.
“I have to look at it like, hey, I can pitch at that velocity [from 2018],” deGrom said. “It is less stress on your body. You get out there and you’re throwing pitches at 100 miles an hour for however many pitches it is — it’s a lot of stress. It’s something that I’m going to look into — using it when I need it, backing off and just trusting that I can locate the ball.”
He had not yet adopted that attitude in 2022, when those 11 starts convinced deGrom to opt out of his contract with the New York Mets, who had drafted him in the ninth round in 2010. Immediately, the Texas Rangers began their pursuit. General manager Chris Young pitched for 13 years in the major leagues and knows how hard it is to be truly great. He grunted to hit 90 with his fastball. Someone who could sit 99 with 248 strikeouts against 19 walks in 156⅓ innings (as deGrom did in the combined pieces of his 2021 and 2022 seasons) and make it look easy is one of a kind. Injury risk be damned, Texas gave deGrom $185 million over five years.
He played the part in his first five starts for Texas. Then he left the sixth with elbow pain. Done for the year. Surgery on June 12 — 11 days after the birth of his third child, Nolan. He carried Nolan around with his left arm while his right was in a brace that would click a degree or two more every day to eventually reteach deGrom to straighten his arm.
He taught himself how to throw again, too, under the watchful eyes of Texas’ training staff and Keith Meister, the noted Tommy John surgeon who is also the Rangers’ team doctor. They wanted to build back the deGrom who scythed lineups — but this time, with decision-making processes guided by proper arm care.
Part of that showed in deGrom’s September cameo last year. His fastball averaged 97.3 mph, and he still managed to look like himself: 1.69 ERA, 14 strikeouts against one walk with one home run allowed in 10⅔ innings. Rather than rush back, deGrom put himself in a position to tackle the offseason. Those innings were enough to psychologically move past the rehabilitative stage and reenter achievement mode. He trained with the same intensity he did in past seasons. The stuff would still be there. While peers were spending the winter immersed in pitch design, deGrom was seeking the version of himself that could marry his inherent deGromness with the sturdiness he embodied the first six years of his career.
“I wasn’t trying to build anything in a lab,” deGrom said. “My arm got a little long a few years ago, so trying to shorten up the arm path a little bit and sync up my mechanics really well is what I’ve been trying to do.”
Rather than jump out in the first start of the spring to prove that heartiness, deGrom took his time. It is a long season. He wants to be there in the end. His goal for this year is straightforward: “Make as many starts as I can.” If that means throwing live at-bats a little longer than his teammates, that’s what he’ll do. Ultimately, deGrom is the one who defines his comfort, and he went so long without it that its priority is notable.
So if that means shorter starts early in the season, it won’t surprise anyone. There is no official innings limit on deGrom. The Rangers, though, are going to monitor his usage, and he doesn’t plan to use those limited outings to amp up his velocity. This is about being smart and considering more than raw pitch counts or innings totals.
“I think it’s going to be a monitor of stressful innings versus not,” deGrom said. “You have those games where you go five innings, you have 75 pitches, but you’ve got runners all over the place, so those are stressful. Whereas you cruise and you end up throwing 100 pitches and you had one or two runners. It’s like, OK, those don’t seem to be as stressful. So I think it’s monitoring all of that and just playing it by ear how the season goes.”
That approach carried into deGrom’s spring debut Saturday against the Kansas City Royals. He averaged 97 mph on his fastball, topping out at 98. His slider remained near its previous levels at 90. He flipped in a pair of curveballs for strikes, too, just as a reminder that he’s liable to buckle your knees at any given moment. On 31 pitches, deGrom threw 21 strikes, didn’t allow a baserunner and punched out three, including reigning MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. on a vicious 91.5-mph slider.
On his last batter of the day, deGrom started with a slider well off the plate inducing a swing-and-miss from Tyler Gentry, then followed with a low-and-not-quite-as-outside slider Gentry spit on. When a curveball that was well off the plate was called a strike, deGrom saw an opportunity. This is the art of pitching — of weighing the count, what a hitter has seen, how to take advantage of an umpire’s zone. He dotted a 97.3-mph fastball on the exact horizontal plane as the curveball and elevated it to the top of the strike zone, a nasty bit of sorcery that only a handful of pitchers on the planet can execute at deGrom’s level. Gentry stared at it, plate umpire Pete Talkington punched him out and deGrom strode off the mound, beta test complete.
“It’s always a thing of trusting your stuff,” deGrom said. “It’s one of the hardest things to do in this game, and part of it’s the fear of failure. You throw a pitch at 93 when you could have thrown it at 98 and it’s a homer, you’re like, ‘Why did I do that?’ So that’s the part that gets tough. You still have to go out there and trust your stuff, know that you can locate and change speeds, and still get outs not full tilt the whole time.”
Day by day, deGrom inches closer to that. He’ll get a little extra time, with the likelihood the Rangers will hold him back until the season’s fifth game, just to build in rest before the grind of a new season. He’s ready. It has been too long since he has been on the field regularly, contributing, searching for the best version of himself. It might look a little different. And if it does, that’s a good thing.
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