‘In my mind, I’m the best in the world’: How Vlad Guerrero Jr. returned to superstardom
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
HIS CONFIDENCE BEAMED, even as his aura faded.
“In my mind,” Vladimir Guerrero Jr. said earlier this month, “I’m the best in the world.”
Guerrero firmly believes this now, while reemerging as one of the game’s best hitters. But he also believed it in 2022, when his numbers dipped in the wake of a breakthrough season. In 2023, when his production fell even further. At the end of this past April, when his batting average stood at just .229. And a month later, when he was stuck on five home runs through the Toronto Blue Jays‘ first 56 games.
“I never really lost sight of the type of ballplayer I am and the type of potential I have within me,” Guerrero said in Spanish. “It’s just a process you have to go through. Thankfully I was able to get through it.”
Guerrero has been incredible since the start of June and otherworldly since the All-Star break. His overall numbers — a .320/.395/.557 slash line, a 33-homer pace and 167 weighted runs created plus — nearly mirror what he attained in 2021, when only Shohei Ohtani prevented him from becoming the American League’s Most Valuable Player at 22 years old. If not for the transformative seasons of Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. this year, Guerrero, still just 25, might be in the thick of the MVP discussion once more.
And as the Blue Jays flail toward a lost season that has placed them at a crossroads, one certainty seems to have emerged: Guerrero needs to be the face of whatever comes next.
BLUE JAYS OUTFIELDER George Springer likes to call Guerrero a “one-percenter,” a term that applies specifically to the types of pitches he confronts.
One of the more recent examples occurred on Aug. 12 against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Davis Daniel. Daniel throws changeups to opposing right-handed hitters less than 3% of the time and didn’t throw any in that situation through the first two innings that night. Guerrero came up again with one out in the third inning and ran the count full. Daniel thought he’d surprise him by going away from his fastball-slider combination and unveiling a changeup. He placed it perfectly, low and in and on the very edge of the strike zone — and Guerrero hit it 113 mph for a double.
“If you watch the swing, if you watch the at-bat, there’s no way he’s looking for it,” Springer said. “It’s just something in his brain and in his swing that made him see it and hit it. For me that’s hard to explain. It’s something you can’t really coach. He just has it in him.”
Springer became Guerrero’s teammate three years ago and noticed the trait almost instantly. In his mind, it was a separator. From there, he watched Guerrero’s OPS dip from an AL-leading 1.002 in 2021 to .818 in 2022 to .788 in 2023. He was still good — still a yearly All-Star, still producing more than 15% above league average, still the cover athlete for a popular video game — but he was far enough removed from excellence to make one wonder if it was still attainable.
Like Guerrero himself, though, Springer remained bullish.
“I didn’t think,” he said when asked if he thought Guerrero could someday return to his 2021 levels. “I knew.”
Seeing him now, Springer believes Guerrero is “just beginning to scratch the surface of the player he’s gonna be.”
“I think it gets lost on a lot of people how young he actually is,” Springer said. “At 25 years old I was basically in my second season in the big leagues. He’s, in my opinion, a top-five player in this game, and he’s gonna be for a long time. I think once he kinda discovers that next level, he’s gonna be unbelievable.”
Guerrero believes he was too hard on himself last year and has since learned to “control what I can control and let the rest go.”
It’s a mindset rooted in discipline.
Guerrero went into the offseason focused on establishing a routine he wouldn’t waver from. He’d go to the gym every day, no matter how he was feeling. Food outside the regular season was cut off at 6 p.m., with no exceptions. Rather than fixate on the results, he drowned himself in the monotony of the work. It offered him security. And when things went wrong — when the results weren’t there early, when the outside world kept talking about how he might never be great again — Guerrero found comfort in the dependability of his process.
It kept him positive, and it only strengthened his confidence.
“Ultimately if you don’t believe in yourself, nobody’s gonna believe in you,” Guerrero said. “I’m the one who goes out there on the field to play. Nobody goes out there for me. If you put negativity in your mind, things aren’t going to turn out well, no matter what kind of talent you have. But if you stay positive and stay with the process, staying with it every day, the same routine, happy, things are going to change.”
JOHN SCHNEIDER, WHO is winding down his second season as the Blue Jays’ full-time manager, has coached Guerrero dating back to his days in the lower minor leagues. What he’s seeing now is someone with a clear understanding of the pitches he wants to do damage on. It’s evident through his hard-hit percentage, which sits at 55.6%, a career high that places him within the top 1% of his sport. Guerrero has never been more efficient.
“That’s kind of the next step of a great hitter,” Schneider said. “He can cover the entire zone, but I think he’s just really doing a good job right now of focusing on pitches that are really, really ones he can do damage on.”
A comparison of Guerrero’s tendencies between the season’s first two months and the ensuing 12 weeks reveal drastic inconsistencies. Since the start of June, he’s striking out less but also walking less. He’s displaying patience by letting pitches travel deeper to drive them into the opposite field, but impatience by seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance. He’s making more contact, but he’s swinging less often within the strike zone and more often outside of it. To Schneider, it all paints the picture of someone who’s secure, relaxed, willing to be unconventional for the sake of his own comfort. It’s evident in the movement of Guerrero’s hands.
Early in the year, Guerrero’s hands were upright and stiff as he began his pre-pitch load. Now they’re loose, fluid, shifting up and down in perfect sync with the toe-tap he utilizes before his swing. The kinetic chain, as hitters call it, is harmonious.
Guerrero’s launch angle is still comically low for a power hitter — 7.2 degrees, down from 10.5 degrees last year and ranked 129th among 136 qualified players — but it hasn’t mattered. He’s homering at a 7% rate since the start of June, tied with Juan Soto for sixth-highest in the majors in that stretch.
“It sounds really simple,” Schneider said, “but when you start thinking about getting the ball in the air, when you start thinking about hitting home runs, I think it can be a little bit more rigid. He hits the ball so damn hard, he doesn’t have to get it in the air. It’s just him realizing that what he does is enough.”
Guerrero is OPS’ing 1.081 since the end of May and 1.354 since the end of the All-Star break. He hit safely in 22 consecutive games from July 14 to Aug. 10, during which he slashed .494/.558/1.025 with 10 home runs. Right around then, he put together a 25-game stretch that is up there with some of the best in history, with 11 home runs and 12 doubles. He probably won’t match the 48 home runs and 111 RBIs he accumulated in 2021, but he’s on pace to set a career high with 43 doubles. His baserunning has been bad and his first-base defense has been, by some metrics, dreadful, but his offensive production still has him on pace for 5.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement.
Guerrero noticed around late April that his hands had become too stiff (Schneider believes it was the result of trying too hard to elevate pitches). He went about fixing it then, but it took weeks.
“Day by day, I kept working at it and I knew I was gonna get there again,” Guerrero said. “I knew what I was doing was wrong, but I also knew it wasn’t going to change from one day to the next. It’s a process. And within a week, two weeks, I was starting to get them where I needed them to be. In three weeks, they got there. After three weeks, it’s there. ‘Now that it’s there, let’s maintain it there.’ And that’s when things started going the way they should. It’s been like that for three months.”
GUERRERO’S RESURGENCE COULDN’T prevent the Blue Jays from floundering. After a full-throated pursuit of Ohtani this offseason, one in which they agreed to match the significantly backloaded $700 million contract he ultimately signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Blue Jays’ front office didn’t pivot to another impact player. By the All-Star break, the Blue Jays found themselves 44-52 with a minus-66 run-differential. Guerrero’s name — like Bo Bichette‘s, another superstar scheduled for free agency after the 2025 season — was suddenly bandied about in trade rumors, though rival executives sensed the asking price would be exorbitant.
Guerrero was never assured he wouldn’t be traded, but he never asked.
“I knew they weren’t going to,” Guerrero said. “I’m the type of person who feels like if a team has the thought of staying with you, has the thought of having you for many years, they would never think of trading you. If they have long-term plans with you, they’re gonna stick with you. There’s always gonna be rumors. They traded a bunch of my teammates, but you already knew they were going to. With me, that was never talked about.”
The Blue Jays engineered eight present-for-future trades before the July 30 deadline, most notably acquiring two high-end Houston Astros prospects — right-handed pitcher Jake Bloss and left-handed hitter Joey Loperfido — for starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. But only two of the players dealt, reliever Nate Pearson and utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa, were controllable beyond this season. The team’s core remained intact.
On the seventh day of August, Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro held a rare media availability and pointed to those who didn’t move — namely Guerrero, Bichette and two of his core starting pitchers, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt — as proof they will attempt to compete again next season.
“We haven’t said the word ‘rebuild’ once,” Schneider told ESPN a week later. “And that’s been pretty clear from everyone.”
The Blue Jays are guaranteed only one more year of Guerrero and Bichette, the once-heralded prospects who only a half-decade ago represented the start of a potential dynasty in Toronto. They’re expected to explore extensions with both this offseason but remain open-minded about potential trade opportunities. In all likelihood, though, both will be back in some form next season.
“I think because we’re so familiar with those guys,” Schneider said, “you wanna kinda owe it to them and you wanna kinda follow through with what our goal was.”
So they’ll bank on a Bichette bounceback, look to free agency to augment a lineup that could use significantly more punch, overhaul a bullpen that is suddenly in shambles and hope to squeeze at least one more shot from a group that might not have many more shots left.
What comes next could hinge entirely on whether they can lock up Guerrero, whose re-emergence has put him back on a path to great riches.
“I’ve always said it — I’d love to stay here,” Guerrero said. “But it’s a business. Let’s see what happens.”
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Tom Luginbill
The Elite 11 Finals annually spotlight the nation’s top high school quarterbacks, offering a firsthand look at how the next wave of signal-callers stacks up against elite competition.
With most participants already committed, it’s a valuable window into how these prospects will fit into their future college systems and translate to the next level. Here are the top 10 committed quarterbacks attending the event later this month ranked by system fit.
ESPN 300 ranking: 8
Tennessee’s scheme is plug-and-play friendly and fits Brandon’s big arm and sneaky mobility. There’s a clear trend emerging in Knoxville when it comes to quarterback traits in terms of stature, athleticism and arm strength. Brandon checks all three boxes. He’s very similar to former Vols standout Hendon Hooker and is further along developmentally than Hooker was at Brandon’s age. Though not quite as polished as Nico Iamaleava coming out of high school, Brandon throws a great deep ball, which Tennessee coach Josh Heupel requires from all his quarterbacks. By the time he arrives on campus, it’s likely at least one quarterback currently on the Tennessee roster will have hit the transfer portal.
One week from today the @Elite11 Finals get underway ⏳
UCReport will have on-site coverage. Looking forward to seeing plenty of high-level quarterbacks and evaluating how they’ll fit in their college system.
Among those is 5-star Tennessee commit Faizon Brandon who was… pic.twitter.com/kXFh2QojIJ
– Billy Tucker (@TheUCReport) June 10, 2025
ESPN 300 ranking: N/A — three-star
Duke offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer is looking for a run-pass option quarterback with consistent accuracy and high-level production in the run game. Walker is that guy. He’s strikingly similar to Darian Mensah, the quarterback Duke brought in via the transfer portal, only Walker has a stronger arm. The Blue Devils want a dynamic runner at quarterback — something former QB Maalik Murphy wasn’t — and that’s what Walker is. A true playmaker, he also has a sky-high ceiling for development as a passer. Walker’s commitment is more evidence that the perception of Duke is shifting among top-tier recruits.
ESPN 300 ranking: 157
It’s easy to see why Arizona State’s coaching staff loves Fette considering he’s a mirror image of current quarterback Sam Leavitt. Fette is a sandlot-style riverboat gambler who thrives when the play breaks down. He looks like a pocket passer, but has the athleticism of a runner and can stress defenses with his legs. Coach Kenny Dillingham will use a lot of smoke and mirrors with shifts, motions, personnel groupings and backfield action to maximize Fette’s dynamic skill set and make him a threat both inside and outside the pocket.
ESPN 300 ranking: 6
Bell enters an ideal situation. The Longhorns don’t need to rush him, and instead can allow him to develop at his own pace. His fit is quite akin to Arch Manning‘s, and if Bell follows a similar blueprint he will get bigger, stronger and more mature over time. He already displays the tools of a high-level passer and adds value as a more capable runner than Quinn Ewers did in Steve Sarkisian’s system. Bell is a naturally gifted passer with a long track record of performance against elite competition, so he is ready to make the jump.
ESPN 300 ranking: N/A — three-star
Regardless of Carson Beck‘s production this fall, Coleman will be able to deliver the dynamism that Miami showcased with Cam Ward at the helm, which will make the Hurricanes much more difficult to defend. Coleman is the type of player Miami will prefer at quarterback in the long run. He has moxie, a gunslinger’s mentality and a live arm capable of making off-platform plays look routine. Remind you of anyone?
ESPN 300 ranking: 155
It’s easy to see shades of former Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams when watching Jonas Williams. He’s a naturally creative and improvisational quarterback. The play is never over, sometimes to a fault, but often to devastating effect. Williams can move the launch point and change arm angles, especially when asked to get the ball out quickly on screens and underneath throws. He thrives in chaos and can run the play-action offense Lincoln Riley loves to employ.
ESPN 300 ranking: 16
Henderson is another signal-caller with similarities to Darian Mensah, who played for current Houston coach Willie Fritz at Tulane. Landing Henderson was a huge win for Fritz. Henderson is a terrific athlete who can reach 20.6 mph max speed, an elite number for a quarterback. We’re intrigued to see whether he sticks at quarterback or moves to another position. For that reason, he’s more of a developmental player who needs to get more consistent in the passing game, but he has a high ceiling regardless of position.
ESPN 300 ranking: 198
At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Huhn has the kind of stature coach James Franklin and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki love. Though not as mobile as Drew Allar, Huhn is very athletic in the pocket. He can extend plays and shows strong anticipation off play-action. Huhn loves to play under center, which is a valuable trait in a Penn State offense that blends shotgun and traditional looks. With a scheme that frequently shifts the launch point through varied play-action concepts, Huhn’s footwork and functional mobility make him a natural fit.
ESPN 300 ranking: N/A — three-star
It’s still unclear exactly what North Carolina’s offense will look like under Bill Belichick, but recent quarterback additions offer a clue. The Tar Heels brought in dual-threat options in South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez and 2025 commit Bryce Baker. Neither is a traditional pocket passer, nor is Burgess. He’s a great get for North Carolina with his athleticism, live arm, quick release and developmental upside. He also won’t be thrust into action immediately. Once the staff understands his strengths, he’s the kind of player it can build a system around. Though not as tall, he’s reminiscent of NC State’s CJ Bailey.
ESPN 300 ranking: N/A — three-star
Cherry is the prototypical athletic pocket passer for Jeff Brohm’s system. He’s decisive, releases the ball quickly and anticipates plays well. Combine that with Brohm’s tried-and-true scheme, and it’s easy to see why Louisville is a destination for quarterbacks such as Cherry who are looking to up their game. He is similar to Cardinals transfer quarterback Miller Moss in both skill and style. Cherry thrives in quick-game concepts, excels in the intermediate passing attack and is highly effective off deep play-action. Louisville is attractive for Cherry because it always layers good skill players around its quarterback.
Will Tuesday night’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers be the final game of the 2024-25 season? Or will there be one more on Friday?
The Panthers lead 3-2 in the 2025 Stanley Cup Final ahead of Game 6 (8 p.m. ET, TNT/Max). If they win, they skate the Cup on home ice. If the Oilers win, Game 7 is back in Edmonton.
Here are notes on the matchup from ESPN Research, as well as betting intel from ESPN BET:
More from Game 5: Recap | Grades
Matchup notes
Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers
Game 6 | 8 p.m. ET | TNT/Max
With a 3-2 lead ahead of Game 6 on home ice, the Panthers are now -400 favorites to win the Cup and the Oilers are +300; those numbers are adjusted from prior to Game 5, when both clubs were -110. As for the Conn Smythe Trophy, Sam Bennett remains the leader, but his odds have shifted from +150 to -190. Brad Marchand (+300), Connor McDavid (+700) and Leon Draisaitl (+700) round out the top four.
The Panthers are seeking to become the first team to repeat as Stanley Cup champions by beating the same team since the Montreal Canadiens did so against the Boston Bruins in 1977 and 1978 — for the Habs, those were titles No. 2 and 3 of four straight earned between 1976 and 1979. A Panthers win would be the fourth Stanley Cup for a team based in the state of Florida this decade (the Tampa Bay Lightning won in 2020 and 2021).
The Oilers are facing elimination for the first time in the 2025 playoffs. Last year, they were 5-1 when facing elimination — including three wins in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final after falling behind 3-0. Road teams facing elimination in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final have gone 6-6 in the past 12 occurrences.
Marchand is having a superb Stanley Cup Final, scoring six goals thus far. That marks the most goals in a Cup Final since Esa Tikkanen (1988, also six). Marchand is the first player to score five or more goals with multiple teams in a Cup Final, and his five road goals in this series are the most in a single Cup Final since Jack Adams had six for the Vancouver Millionaires in 1922. With multiple multigoal games in the Cup Final, Marchand joins Jeff Friesen (New Jersey Devils, 2003) and Max Talbot (2009, Pittsburgh Penguins) as the only players to pull off that feat in the past 30 years.
Teammate Sam Bennett is also entering historic territory. With a goal in Edmonton in Game 5, he became the fifth player in NHL history with a streak of six straight road games with a goal. He is also the fourth active NHL player to score 15 goals in a single postseason, joining Zach Hyman (16, 2024), Alex Ovechkin (15, 2018) and Sidney Crosby (15, 2009).
Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky tied the NHL record for most road wins in a single postseason (10). The other five goalies tied atop the list are: Jordan Binnington (St. Louis Blues, 2019), Braden Holtby (Washington Capitals, 2018), Jonathan Quick (Los Angeles Kings, 2012), Miikka Kiprusoff (Calgary Flames, 2004), Martin Brodeur (Devils, 2000 and 1995).
With three goals in this series, Edmonton’s Corey Perry tied Mark Recchi (Bruins, 2011) and Igor Larionov (Detroit Red Wings, 2002) for the most goals by a player age 40 or older in a single Cup Final.
McDavid scored a point in every home game he played since the 4 Nations Face-Off break — a run of 17 straight games, with 36 points in that span. He reached 150 playoff points in 95 games, the third-fastest player in NHL history to reach that benchmark, behind Wayne Gretzky (68 games played) and Mario Lemieux (86).
With one more game-winning goal this series, Draisaitl would become just the third player in the NHL’s modern era (since 1943-44) — and first since 1977 — to have three game winners in a single Stanley Cup Final. The previous players to do so are Jacques Lemaire (1977) and Jean Beliveau (1965 and 1960), both of whom accomplished the feat for the Canadiens.
0:47
Oilers coach: We’ve overcome difficult situations before
Kris Knoblauch keeps faith in his Oilers as he reflects on losing Game 5 in Edmonton.
Scoring leaders
GP: 22 | G: 15 | A: 7
GP: 21 | G: 11 | A: 22
Best bets for Game 6
Evander Kane over 4.5 total hits (+107): The Oilers need to be more physical if they hope to have a legitimate shot at pushing this series to a Game 7. Saturday’s team total of 25 hits, including only a pair from Kane, isn’t going to cut it. An aggressive difference-maker when he’s at his best at nearing, but not crossing, the line as he has too often this series, the winger will be one to watch from the get-go Tuesday. Notably, he registered 17 total hits through both overtime games to open this series in Edmonton. Win or lose, Kane is going to serve as a factor. Hopefully for the Oilers, not by earning himself time in the penalty box.
Stuart Skinner under 25.5 total saves (-120): If Skinner — presuming coach Kris Knoblauch goes with his No. 1 netminder to start Game 6 — struggles, or the rest of the Oilers fail to perform well enough out front, he won’t last long enough in the crease to make 26 saves before all is said and done. The leash will be short in this must-win contest. Or perhaps Edmonton’s team defense rises to the occasion and prevents more scoring chances in support of their starting goaltender, as it did in earlier rounds versus Dallas and Vegas.
Connor McDavid first period anytime goal-scorer (+600): After Leon Draisaitl scored the opener in Game 1, the Panthers are perfect in four straight games at catching the back of the net first, outscoring Edmonton 11-4 altogether in the initial period. The Oilers understand reversing that trend would go a long way in helping them survive, particularly by forcing Florida to sway from their stifling defensive play. Who better to look to than McDavid, who finally found the back of the net this series in Saturday’s losing effort? The sport’s best player needs to shoot more, and he knows it. He’ll be revved right up to make a statement, early. — Victoria Matiash
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Alden Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES — Shohei Ohtani jogged off the pitcher’s mound and leaned against the dugout railing while strapping on his elbow guard and batting gloves. He was thrown a towel to wipe the sweat off his face, then walked to the batter’s box to face San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease without taking any practice swings.
With that, Ohtani began his quest to once again do what many in the sport consider impossible.
Ohtani made his pitching debut from Dodger Stadium on Monday, giving up a run in his lone inning of work, then struck out in his first plate appearance as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ designated hitter, marking the first time he has pitched and hit in a game since Aug. 23, 2023. He would eventually finish 2-4 with two RBIs in his club’s 6-3 victory.
Ohtani is close to 21 months removed from a second repair of his right ulnar collateral ligament but faced hitters only three times before essentially rejoining the Dodgers’ rotation, his last session, from Petco Park in San Diego last Tuesday, spanning three simulated innings and 44 pitches.
Ohtani communicated to the Dodgers that facing hitters hours before games, then cooling off and having to ramp back up to DH later that night, was more taxing on his body than doing both simultaneously, prompting him to return to pitching sooner than expected. These initial starts will basically function as the continuation of Ohtani’s pitching rehab. On Monday, he was basically utilized as an opener.
Ohtani reached 99.9 mph and 100.2 mph with his fastball but also uncorked a wild pitch while utilizing 28 pitches to record the first three outs. Fernando Tatis Jr. led off with a bloop single and Luis Arraez followed with a line-drive single. Ohtani should have recorded a strikeout of Manny Machado, who went around on a two-strike swing. But first-base umpire Ryan Blakney ruled otherwise, bringing the count to 2-2 and later prompting a sacrifice fly to score the game’s first run.
Ohtani followed by inducing groundouts to Gavin Sheets and Xander Bogaerts, and with that, his pitching debut was over.
The Dodgers hope it’s the first of many starts.
Ohtani, 30, functioned as a transformative two-way player from 2021 to 2023, winning two unanimous MVPs and also finishing as the runner-up to Aaron Judge. On offense, Ohtani slashed .277/.379/.585 with 124 home runs and 57 stolen bases. On the mound, he posted a 2.84 ERA with 542 strikeouts and 143 walks in 428⅓ innings.
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