There is no doubt the government will win Tuesday’s vote as they have a huge majority of 174.
But the number of abstentions – or MPs who cannot face voting for it – especially if they number dozens, will test the prime minister’s authority and signal whether his backbenchers have the stomach for more of these cuts.
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Over the summer, Labour MPs have seen their inboxes fill up with pensioners and their families angry that those who rely on the payments fear they will face a cold winter in hardship.
The benefit will be restricted, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in July, to those who claim pension credit, and no longer given to the 10 million people aged over 66 who don’t.
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She told MPs at a meeting tonight that it was a difficult decision, and she “wasn’t immune to the arguments against it”, but that sticking to it was a question of economic credibility.
Government sources claimed she had won the argument that “‘no one likes it, but we have to do it”.
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Pensioners, she said, could blame the Conservatives for leaving a financial black hole.
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Reeves defends fuel payment cuts
The problem is that 880,000 pensioners who are eligible for this top-up do not claim it, so they will lose out despite being the poorest – including some on just £13,000 a year.
The government has run a campaign aimed at increasing the uptake, but the payments will go straight away.
Campaigners – pensioners have vocal campaign groups on their side – also say the million or so people just above the threshold will also struggle.
Dozens of Labour MPs are weighing up whether they can vote for the measure, which will be a three-line whip. Some feel the £1.5bn saving will have a painful price.
MP for York Central Rachel Maskell, who told Sky News she would abstain, said the swift timing of the vote, and lack of assessment of its impact, has left many concerned – not just those on the left sceptical about Sir Keir’s leadership.
A House of Lords committee which scrutinises secondary legislation said it had been introduced without proper evidence of its impact.
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Streeting ‘not remotely happy’ about cutting winter fuel payments
A former member of the shadow cabinet, who will be reluctantly voting for the measure, told me he expected the chancellor to be forced to make changes in the run-up to the budget.
In an interview this weekend, Sir Keir stood firm, saying there would be no change in course – as well as further difficult decisions coming down the track.
He will head to Brighton in the morning in a big moment for an incoming Labour prime minister – addressing the Trades Union Congress (TUC) annual conference.
He will be braced for criticism, with major union leaders including Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, and head of the TUC, Paul Novak, piling the pressure on and saying he should U-turn.
Sir Keir knows the cut will get through parliament and has shown he can be ruthless, having withdrawn the party whip from MPs who voted to axe the two-child benefit cap.
But Labour MPs who back the measure through gritted teeth, and feel it’s had too high a price, will be harder to win over next time.
The government has made an offer to rebel Labour MPs over its controversial welfare reforms, Sky News understands.
More than 120 Labour MPs were poised to vote against the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) Bill on Tuesday.
The changes come after a ring-around by cabinet ministers failed to bring rebels on side.
The bill was intended to restrict eligibility for the PIP – the main disability payment in England- and limit the sickness-related element of universal credit, to help shave £5bn off the welfare budget by 2030.
Sky News political editor Beth Rigby has heard that existing PIP claimants will be able to keep their payments, which means 370,000 people will not lose out. This will cost the government at least £1.5bn, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Sky News understands that a senior source has accepted the change, but it will be up to each individual rebel to make a decision on whether to withdraw.
The source said they think the changes are a “good package” with “generous concessions”.
A reasoned amendment signed by 126 Labour MPs argued that disabled people had not been properly consulted and further scrutiny of the changes is needed. If passed, this would have killed the bill.
Other concessions offered by the government include allowing existing claimants to keep the health element of Universal Credit.
Sky News understands that some senior rebels are willing to accept the concessions – with one saying that “the concessions will be positively received, and I expect to vote with the government now”.
Other MPs who had not wanted to rebel were also expecting to change their votes.
However, several Labour MPs on the left of the party have gone public to say they will still oppose the government, including Diane Abbott, Richard Burgon, Nadia Whittome and Brian Leishman.
What is PIP?
The biggest shakeup to the system involved changes to PIP – money given to people, including some of whom are in work – who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.
People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.
From November 2026, people would have needed to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP – instead of fewer points spread across a range of tasks.
This would have impacted existing claimants as well as new ones. The government’s concessions are understood to see this change dropped for existing claimants.
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The government intended to freeze the health element of universal credit, claimed by more than two million people, at £97 a week during this parliament, and cut the rate to £50 for new claimants.
Again, it’s understood the government’s concessions mean this change now won’t apply to existing claimants.
Two Metropolitan Police officers committed gross misconduct during the strip search of a 15-year-old schoolgirl wrongly suspected of possessing cannabis, a misconduct hearing has found.
PCs Kristina Linge, Victoria Wray, and Rafal Szmydynski conducted the search of the black girl, known as Child Q, with no appropriate adult present at a school in Hackney, east London, in 2020.
Scotland Yard apologised, and the Children’s Commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, described the case as “shocking” after details of the incident emerged in 2022.
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From March 2022 – Child Q: ‘Black girls should feel safe in school’
PCs Linge, Wray and Szmydynski suspected the girl was in possession of cannabis, but the police watchdog later determined no drugs were found in her bags or outer clothing.
At a police misconduct hearing in London today, Linge and Szmydytnski were found to have committed gross misconduct. They could potentially be dismissed when the sanctions are decided.
Wray was cleared of gross misconduct, but found to have committed misconduct.
The panel found she became involved in a “situation where the decision had been decided already”.
The case of Child Q drew outrage when it first came to light in March 2022 and sparked protests.
Image: In March 2022 crowds waved banners and placards reading ‘protect black kids’ and ‘shame on you’
The officers had been accused of treating Child Q differently due to her race, but Commander Jason Prins, chair of the misconduct panel, said: “We do not draw any inference that race was an effective cause of this incident.”
The panel found concerns about drugs and potential gang involvement were initially raised by school staff.
“Like many cases where stop and search is used, here the subject of the search was identified to police officers by other professionals rather than being by officers in the street,” Commander Prins added.
He said the problem was with the decision to conduct the strip search in the first place, finding it was “unnecessary” and “disproportionate”.
“There should never have been a strip search in these circumstances,” he said, accepting Child Q found it “humiliating and degrading”.
The panel did not find any officer breached professional behaviour standards relating to equality and diversity, or honesty and integrity.
During the misconduct case, the three officers gave evidence, and each said they were not influenced by subconscious bias.
Luke Ponte, for Linge, said they happened to be “three immigrant officers” who were “trying to do their best to their adopted country” as they were seeking to solve a problem.
Mr Ponte said: “These officers must not bear the entire weight of Child Q where there has been wider dysfunction as to how this came about.”
Breaches of the Met’s standards of professional behaviour found to amount to gross misconduct can lead to dismissal or a final written warning, according to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC).
A fourth officer will face a disciplinary meeting at a later date relating to no appropriate adult being present during the search. This is separate from this misconduct hearing, and it’s a lower level of discipline.
Commander Kevin Southworth, on behalf of the force, said in a statement after the verdict: “The experience of Child Q should never have happened and was truly regrettable.
“We have sincerely apologised to Child Q since this incident happened. Again, I am deeply sorry to Child Q and her family for the trauma that we caused her, and the damage this incident caused to the trust and confidence Black communities across London have in our officers.
“While the officers involved did not act correctly, we acknowledge there were organisational failings. Training to our officers around strip search and the type of search carried out on Child Q was inadequate, and our oversight of the power was also severely lacking.
“This left officers, often young in service or junior in rank, making difficult decisions in complex situations with little information, support or clear resources to help their decision-making.
“What happened to Child Q was a catalyst for change, both for the Met and for policing nationally.
“While we should not have needed an incident such as Child Q to check our approach, it has absolutely led us to improving our processes and significantly reducing the number of these types of searches carried out.
“It’s crucial we get this right to ensure the impact on young people is minimised as far as possible.
“Sadly, we know there are children in London being exploited to carry drugs and weapons for others as well as involved in criminality, so these types of searches have to remain within police powers. The work we have done since Child Q means we now have the right safeguards in place.”
Hours after giving birth, with her son rushed away to a high dependency unit, as she lay broken and bleeding, Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her.
Her son had been born with wet lung after an emergency and traumatic caesarean section.
“I overheard [the midwife] tell a student nurse I was the reason my son was ill, because I was too lazy to push,” she told Sky News.
“I was broken. I genuinely believed for ages afterwards that I had failed my son.
“I thought I was the reason he was ill.”
Her son was born at John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford, part of the Oxford University’s Hospital Trust. Morgan is one of more than 500 families who say they have been harmed by maternity care at the Trust.
A taskforce, chaired by Mr Streeting and made up of experts and bereaved families, will first investigate up to ten of the most concerning maternity and neonatal units.
And campaigners – calling themselves the Families Failed by OUH Maternity Services – are calling for Oxford to be on that initial list.
Have you been affected? Contact the Sky News health team at NHSStories@sky.uk.
‘I thought I was going to die’
The unit was rated “requires improvement” in its last inspection by the government’s watchdog, the Care Quality Commission, in April 2023.
The CQC flagged issues around maintaining patient dignity, and said medicines were not always safely stored and managed. The unit did not manage the control of infection consistently it said, and wards were not always kept clean.
One mum told the campaign group she thought she was going to die after being left alone while in labour and denied pain relief.
Another said she is reluctant to consider having another child and feels a “profound loss of trust in the NHS”.
Trust to meet campaign group
Yvonne Christley, Chief Nursing Officer at OUH, said she apologised “for not being able to respond in detail about individual patient cases”.
“We regret any instance where we fail to provide the service that women and their families should expect. When this happens, we make every effort to review individual cases to understand what went wrong and how we can improve.”
She said the trust “make every effort” to keep women and families informed of what action it has taken, and said it is committed to maintaining an open dialogue with community groups.
“The Trust has agreed to meet with the campaign group and is eager to collaborate with them to implement the necessary changes and restore confidence in our services. These meetings are currently being scheduled.”
Caesarean sections account for approximately 40% of all births at OUH.
A ‘degrading strip wash’
A few hours after Morgan’s son had been whisked away to another part of the hospital, a nurse tried to force her to take oramorph, a high strength painkiller, she said.
When she declined to take the drug, having previously had a bad reaction, she said staff “claimed I was being difficult”.
“[They said] to just take the meds and get it over and done with.”
Image: Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her for her son’s condition when he was born
When Morgan was unable to get out of bed, she says the same nurse then gave her a “degrading” strip wash, without her consent.
The unit, she said, felt like it was against C-sections.
“Even though it was recommended by doctors that I had caesarean, it was medically necessary, I felt I should have done more to help him,” Morgan said.
Waiting eight hours for a C-section
When Kate* was 38 weeks pregnant with her third IVF baby, she was induced.
The doctors had tried to burst her waters, but realised her daughter was breech when the midwife felt her feet near the bottom of the birth canal, telling her: “I’m glad those didn’t break, I think I just felt a foot.”
At 11pm Kate reluctantly agreed to a C-section, but was told it was “safer to wait until the light of day” to go down to theatre.
She was sent away to an observation area experiencing intense contractions for more than six hours. In those hours, she said she was abandoned without pain relief and was bleeding.
“I felt so alone in the dead of night. My husband had been sent home, and I just wanted someone to talk to, someone to help me.
“I was in so much pain labouring but the midwife made me feel like a hypochondriac.”
She said the situation was escalating, she was becoming dehydrated, and her daughter’s heartrate was climbing, yet no one intervened.
A registrar who began his shift at 7am, examined her and rushed her immediately to theatre.
At this point she was 9cm dilated and the registrar was “shouting at me, telling me not to push.”
Kate’s daughter was her third IVF pregnancy, and she became emotional when she talked about what might have happened, had that registrar not examined her so quickly in the morning.
“They gambled with her life,” she said.
“If my waters had broken and that registrar wasn’t there, she would have started to come with her feet first. Both my boys had shot out, so I could be talking now as a mum who lost her child.
“It didn’t need to even get to that point.
“I should have had my C-section five hours earlier.”
After she had given birth, she was left “in a pool of my own blood, just covered in blood” and had to pull herself out of bed to clean up.
She said she joined the campaign in the hopes women will be listened to in the future and not have to endure what she did.
‘I can’t get my baby out’
Annika Weldon had three miscarriages before giving birth to her son.
“I remember lying on the ward, screaming in pain and none of the other ladies around me were screaming like I was,” she said.
“It didn’t feel right, obviously when you go into labour you expect you are going to be in pain, but I just knew there was something not right.”
The midwife who checked her when she was in active labour could not tell her if she was 1cm or 10cm dilated, she said.
“We spent 45 minutes trying to get my baby out but this midwife that I was with was just so uncaring, she didn’t really explain what I should be doing.”
Image: Annika Weldon miscarried three times before giving birth to her son
She had said early in the pregnancy she told doctors she wanted a C-section and “was told I couldn’t have one”.
“I kind of accepted that unless it was an emergency situation, I wouldn’t be able to have one but then in that moment I was like, I don’t know what else I can do here. I feel completely exhausted; I can’t get my baby out.
“I was just so tired and exhausted.”
Her son was born not breathing and she was haemorrhaging blood.
She was taken to emergency surgery and the last thing she remembers before waking up in the ward is throwing up in her hair.
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Maternity services investigated
She wasn’t told until much later the extent of her blood loss (2.5L) when she was struggling to pick up her own baby: “When I asked for help, I was made to feel like an inconvenience.”
‘OUH is particularly bad’
For Kim Thomas, co-founder of Families Failed by OUH Maternity Services and CEO of the Birth Trauma Association, these stories are nothing new.
But Oxford University Hospitals Trust is “particularly bad”, she says.
“They seem to have this incredibly arrogant attitude. They won’t take criticism.
Image: Kim Thomas, from the Birth Trauma Association
“Women who complain are routinely dismissed. There’s a failure to learn from mistakes.”
She says OUH also has “poor postnatal care”: “Dirty wards, blood on the floor, women left in their own blood, women not helped.”
Yvonne Christley, from OUH, said: “We are never complacent and welcome all feedback, whether positive or negative, as we learn from both.”
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Too many families have been devastated by serious failings in NHS maternity and neonatal care.
“They deserve swift answers, and urgent action is essential to prevent future tragedies.”
They said the government was “immensely grateful” to families for sharing their experiences.
“[We] will work closely with families on this journey to help ensure no parent or baby is ever let down again.”
The Oxford campaign group is growing daily, with more like Kate, Morgan and Annika joining the ranks of those calling for change.
And each day that passes without answers is a reminder of the trauma they endured.
“It still hurts to look back on. It’s taken a while for me to stop blaming myself, but it doesn’t get easier,” Morgan said.