OPEC is highly bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees
The sun sets beyond crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah tank farm at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Global benchmark Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel in early September — its lowest in 33 months — is terrific news for consumers, who will consequently see lower prices at the pump.
It’s also the stuff of nightmares for OPEC+, for whom oil revenues are critical.
The oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia earlier this month decided to delay oil production hikes for two additional months in an effort to shore up prices, but so far to no avail. Low global demand forecasts, coupled with new oil supply coming from non-OPEC countries, spell a long period of subdued crude prices.
It’s led some in the market to ask the question: Have we officially reached “peak oil”? Has demand growth hit its apex, and is it just downhill from here?
By the forecasts of OPEC itself, that’s a hard no.
The oil producer group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report, released Tuesday, predicts strong energy demand growth of 24% globally between now and 2050. It also forecasts “robust medium-term growth” in oil demand reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.
A fair number of energy analysts appear to disagree with that calculation — not least those at the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based agency sees demand actually leveling off by the end of the decade to around 106 million barrels per day, according to its annual mid-term outlook published in June. The IEA still sees global oil demand rising; it just forecasts a smaller rise, and expects it to peak by the end of the decade.
The battle of the forecasts between OPEC and the IEA has gained publicity in recent years, with the latter organization pushing hard for a net-zero future.
S&P Global Commodity Insights, meanwhile, sees the medium-term future as somewhere in between, with demand reaching a peak of 109 million barrels per day in 2034 and gradually declining to fall below 100 million barrels per day in 2050.
OPEC, by contrast, sees demand hitting a whopping 120 million barrels per day by 2050.
All parties agree that demand will fall in the developing world, while rising in emerging markets led by India.
The medium-term outlook
As for the near-to-medium term outlook, analysts are bearish on oil demand and prices. This is despite the early September announcement by OPEC+ that the group would be extending its crude production cuts into December in an attempt to limit market supply.
“That two month extra time hasn’t convinced anybody who’s skeptical about the market that that’s going to do much to shore up prices,” Dave Ernsberger, head of market reporting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC.
“So that’s the in-the-moment issue. But the much bigger issue is, existentially speaking, are we moving past the moment of peak oil demand?”
Ernsberger pointed to the growth of alternative energy forms, including the increasing use of biofuels in the maritime industry.
“What we’re moving into is an era of post-demand growth. It’s not a post-oil moment, but it’s a post-growth moment. And how does OPEC+, how does the market readjust to a world of low or no growth in demand overall?”
Price increase prospects are also dimmed by China, the world’s largest oil importer, which has put itself on a dedicated path to electrification.
“The biggest threats to higher prices for OPEC+ are external,” Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told CNBC.
Those are chiefly “lackluster demand, especially from China, oil supply from non-OPEC+ sources, and internal; some members are producing more than assigned quotas.”
Estimates by international and Chinese sources show a slowing demand for oil and refined products in China, Sim said.
That is in part due to slowing Chinese economic growth of around 3% to 5% annually in recent years — still better than many other countries, she noted.
“But there’s also a structural element to the reduction in oil consumption, driven by a conscious effort to reduce its high dependence on oil (and gas) imports, and expressed in policies such as electric vehicle uptake and encouraging expansion of renewable and nuclear power,” Sim added.
In the near term, OPEC+ is still expected to bring some production back in December, several countries in the alliance are producing beyond their quotas, and more supply is coming onto the market from non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Canada.
“It’s difficult to see prices moving much higher from here as long as that threat is out there in the market to bring those supplies back,” Ernsberger said.
In the much longer term, the eventual decline of the oil era – if it happens – will be brought on due to changing demand rather than dwindling supply, many analysts argue.
It was the late Saudi Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani who said in 2000: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
Fueled by incentives from the Illinois EPA and the state’s largest utility company, new EV registrations nearly quadrupled the 12% first-quarter increase in EV registrations nationally – and there are no signs the state is slowing down.
Despite the dramatic slowdown of Tesla’s US deliveries, sales of electric vehicles overall have perked up in recent months, with Illinois’ EV adoption rate well above the Q1 uptick nationally. Crain’s Chicago Business reports that the number of new EVs registered across the state totaled 9,821 January through March, compared with “just” 6,535 EVs registered in the state during the same period in 2024.
Those numbers represent more than 50% growth in EV registrations – far beyond the expected 12% first-quarter increase nationally being projected by Cox Automotive. (!)
What’s going on in Illinois?
While President Trump and Elmo were running for re-election, they campaigned on the threat promise of canceling the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Along with California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois’ Governor JB Pritzker made countermoves – launching a $4,000 rebate for new electric cars and up to $1,500 for the purchase of a new electric motorcycle.
At the same time, the state’s largest utility, ComEd, launched a $90 million EV incentive program featuring a new Point of Purchase initiative to deliver instant discounts to qualifying business and public sector customers who make the switch to electric vehicles. That program has driven a surge in Class 3-6 medium duty commercial EVs, which are eligible fro $20-30,000 in utility rebates on top of federal tax credits and other incentives (Class 1-2 EVs are eligible for up to $7,500).
We covered the launch of those incentives when the program was announced at Chicago Drives Electric last year, but the message here is simple: incentives work.
SOURCES: Chicago Business, Ray Cunningham; featured image by the author.
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The electric construction equipment experts at XCMG just released a new, 25 ton electric crawler excavator ahead of bauma 2025 – and they have their eye on the global urban construction, mine operations, and logistical material handling markets.
Powered by a high-capacity 400 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery capable of delivering up to 8 hours of continuous operation, the XE215EV electric excavator promises uninterrupted operation at a lower cost of ownership and with even less downtime than its diesel counterparts.
XCMG is delivering on part of that reduced downtime promise with the lower maintenance and easier repair needs of electric equipment, and delivering on the rest of it with lickety-quick DC fast charging that can recharge the machine’s massive battery in 1.5-2 hours … but that’s not the slick bit. The XCMG XE125EV can be powered up without leaving the job site thanks to its BYD battery swap technology.
We first covered XCMG and its battery swap technology back in January, and covered similar battery-swap tech being developed by MOOG Construction offshoot ZQUIP, as well – but while XCMG’s battery tech has been in production for several years, it’s still not widely known about in the West (even within the industry).
XCMG showed off its latest electric equipment at the December 2024 bauma China, including an updated version of its of its 85-ton autonomous electric mining truck that features a fully cab-less design – meaning there isn’t even a place for an operator to sit, let alone operate. And that’s too bad, because what operator wouldn’t want to experience an electric truck putting down 1070 hp more than 16,000 lb-ft of torque!?
Easy in, easy out
The best part? All of the company’s heavy equipment assets – from excavators to terminal tractors to dump trucks and wheel loaders – all use the same 400 kWh BYD battery packs, Milwaukee tool style. That means an equipment fleet can utilize x number of vehicles with a fraction of the total battery capacity and material needs of other asset brands. That’s not just a smart use of limited materials, it’s a smarter use of energy.
You can check out all the XE215EV’s specs at this tear sheet, and get an in-person look at the Chinese company’s latest electric excavator this week in Munich, Germany.
SOURCE | IMAGES: XCMG.
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As “extreme” weather events become more commonplace, the demand for reliable and portable energy continues to rise. In response to that growing demand for dependable off-grid power, Volvo has developed the new PU500 Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) designed to take electrical power when it’s needed most.
Designed to be deployable in a number of environments at a moment’s notice, the Volvo Energy PU500 BESS is equipped with approximately 500 kWh of usable battery capacity (up to 540 kWh total). More than enough juice, in other words, to power a remote construction site, disaster response effort, or even a music festival – anything that needs access to reliable electricity beyond a grid connection.
That’s great, but what sets the PU500 apart from other battery storage solutions is its integrated 240 kW DC fast charger.
“With an integrated CCS2 charger, the PU500 is designed to work with all brands of electric equipment, trucks, and passenger cars,” says Niklas Thulin, Head of BESS Product Offer at Volvo Energy. “This ensures that no matter what type of electric vehicle or machinery you rely on, the PU500 can provide the power you need, making it a truly flexible solution for any grid constrained site or location.”
The integrated charger in the PU500 has the impressive ability to charge a heavy equipment asset (be that an electric semi truck or something like a wheel loader) in under two hours. Its on-board capacity allows to fully recharge up to 3 electric HD trucks or 20 electric cars per day, making it an incredibly versatile disaster response asset.
Electrek’s Take
As we often say over at The Heavy Equipment Podcast, “just because you’re working for the power company doesn’t mean you have power,” and there are hundreds of scenarios where the extra power provided by something like the new PU500 would be useful. Its ability to be palletized and easily moved or swapped out of a larger BESS array, too, just add to its flexibility.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo.
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