‘They are that bad’: Inside the White Sox’s road to the worst record in MLB history
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Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
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Jesse Rogers
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Jesse Rogers
ESPN Staff Writer
- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
MORE THAN 17,000 fans — and 375 dogs, attending the season’s final Dog Day promotion — descended upon Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday, there to see the Chicago White Sox set the modern-day mark for losses in a single season. One fan even printed out a hard ticket for the game.
“It’s history,” he said. “I want to have a piece of it.”
Inside the clubhouse, players have taken the ignominy in stride over the past 156 games, 120 of them losses. But knowing that this record-setting moment was coming didn’t take away the sting of its arrival.
“This isn’t the kind of attention we want,” outfielder/first baseman Gavin Sheets told what was the largest media contingent of the year, according to several players.
Six hours later — after a pregame rain delay of an hour and five minutes followed by an eighth-inning comeback against the Los Angeles Angels — the White Sox ended the night exactly where they started it: one game away from becoming the worst team in modern baseball history.
Chicago improved to 1-94 when trailing after seven innings — but celebrated the victory on the mound to boos loud enough to be heard through the stadium. The fans’ complicated feelings showed all game long, with a mix of cheers and boos when things went right for the home team and at others chanting “Sell the team!” when things went wrong.
“First comeback win being this late in the season is hard to believe,” outfielder Andrew Benintendi said after the game. “People here tonight were trying to see history. They’re going to have to wait one more day. Maybe.”
There are bad teams in every baseball season. Some of them lose 100 games, maybe more. That was the fate many expected for Chicago – even within the franchise — coming off a 101-loss 2023 season. But unless they have five more unexpected wins in them, the 2024 Chicago White Sox will soon live in baseball infamy as the worst team ever, supplanting the 1962 New York Mets who were 40-120.
“I think if you would have told me we were going to end up flirting with the record I would have been a little surprised,” general manager Chris Getz said Sept. 16. “Now if you would have told me prior to the year that we would have ended up with over 100 losses, 105, 110, I wouldn’t have been as surprised. But this is the cards that we’ve been dealt at this point.”
How does a team go from winning its division three seasons ago to creating a new standard for failure? A disaster of this magnitude must have multiple tributaries. It’s not only about the decades-long habit of owner Jerry Reinsdorf loyally clinging to employees past peak effectiveness. “Old news,” said one staffer. It’s not only about a wave of injuries; lots of teams deal with a lot of injuries. It’s not only about a first-time manager whose tenure was infected by a toxic clubhouse mix. Lots of teams have veterans who don’t get along, though the White Sox seemed to have had more than their share. It’s not only about a handful of players performing at their worst. It’s not only about a first-time general manager taking his first turn on the learning curve. It’s not necessarily about spending — in an era in which teams have slashed payroll to facilitate tanking, the White Sox’s payroll is about $145 million, ranked 18th among 30 teams.
According to more than two dozen sources inside and outside the organization, it’s all of that, together. Over the course of the season, there were missteps from every level of the organization — and just plain bad baseball — that turned the 2024 White Sox from a bad team into a historically awful one.
“There is so much randomness in our sport, and the worst teams still usually win a share of games,” said one rival executive. “But [the White Sox] have taken the randomness out of the sport. They are that bad.”
March 28
Record: 0-0
IN LATE MARCH, then-White Sox manager Pedro Grifol and Getz were trying to decide on their Opening Day starter. Two weeks earlier, the White Sox had traded ace Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres for prospects. The deal came together late because Getz was intent on getting maximum value for the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, but it left the team without time to find a replacement for their ace.
It also effectively served as a white flag on the big league season, the first in charge for the 40-year-old Getz. The new general manager turned his focus to how to build assets amid a lost year.
At the outset of spring training, Garrett Crochet was given the opportunity to do something he’s never done in the majors: work as a starting pitcher. The White Sox staff challenged him to be more efficient, to have more 15-pitch innings than 25-pitch innings, and he’s done what they’ve asked. The White Sox had no other obvious candidates for the honor of Opening Day starter, and Getz believed that if Crochet could excel as a starting pitcher, the left-hander might develop into a valuable piece of their roster — or on the trade market. He told Grifol, “F— it, let’s start Crochet.”
It was thrilling news to deliver to Crochet, a player whose confidence had wavered in the past, but it was also the first barometer reading of a serious problem: The White Sox’s pitcher in their first game of the season would be making his first career start. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only three non-expansion teams in the live ball era (since 1920) have debuted four new starters since the previous year in the first four games of a season, as the White Sox did with Crochet and journeymen Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen and Mike Soroka. The bullpen was also a problem area: the most dynamic talent, Michael Kopech, fought the yips at the end of the 2023 season, and the entire relief corps had been turned over since the previous Opening Day with veterans Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo Lopez leaving via trade or free agency in the offseason.
Crochet pitched great on Opening Day, allowing one run in six innings, but the White Sox lost 1-0 to Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. And then they kept losing — 7-6 in their second game against Detroit, 3-2 in their third. By Chicago’s fourth game, Chris Flexen was hammered in a 9-0 rout by the Atlanta Braves, and the White Sox fell to 0-4.
Meanwhile, a lineup already thin on big league talent was getting thinner. Eloy Jimenez, a top prospect acquired in 2017 and signed two years later to be a foundational piece of a previous rebuild, played three games before he was sidelined with a hamstring injury. On April 5, Luis Robert — in theory, the best player on the White Sox’s roster — suffered a hip flexor strain as he was running the bases; he’d miss the next two months. Yoan Moncada, the longest-tenured of the Chicago regulars, also suffered a hip injury. Little more than a week into the season, a third of the lineup was out, and the White Sox had won just one of their first nine games, with a run differential of minus-30.
They didn’t win a series for almost a month, a stretch that included a sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, who outscored them 27-5 in a three-game set in mid-April. Several first-year Reds, who had considered signing with the White Sox, expressed confusion about their winter decisions.
“Oof,” one Cincinnati player said. “What happened to all their pitching?”
May 26
15-38
AFTER EIGHT WINS in the first two weeks of May, a brutal stretch awaited Chicago: series against the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers.
In the third game against the Orioles, with Crochet on the mound, the White Sox lost, again, to the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish. The team was 15-39, Grifol’s second season as manager had started badly, and he was pissed off. He praised Crochet to reporters, but said the rest of the team is “f—ing flat.” The words did not land well with a clubhouse of beleaguered players — it sounded to them as if Grifol was piling on blame, rather than sharing it — and some of them pushed back when speaking with reporters. “He’s going to feel that way, and obviously we’re going to have a different feeling,” catcher Korey Lee said. “He’s entitled to his own opinion, and we are also.”
Sheets said, “I’m not sure. I think we ran into a pretty good pitcher with pretty good stuff.”
“I mean, we were trying,” one White Sox player said later. “For better or worse, that was it, right there. … I think that could have been the beginning of the end for Pedro.”
Grifol had been hired by then-GM Rick Hahn and former club president Kenny Williams early in the 2022 offseason. Hahn and Williams’ hope was that Grifol, who was from Miami and bilingual, would connect with the team’s core of Latin American players, but the hire was a gamble: Grifol had an impressive résumé as a coach, including the previous three years as the Kansas City Royals bench coach, but had never managed in the big leagues.
And he was inheriting a splintered clubhouse. Liam Hendriks, then the team’s most prominent pitching star, is distinctly an extrovert — loud, friendly, accessible to the media, chatty. Three organizational sources say a rift had grown between Hendriks and some of the other veterans on the team, namely pitchers Kendall Graveman, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly.
In December 2022, Hendriks was diagnosed with cancer. He went through treatment in the spring of 2023 before making his way back to the team. In late May, the White Sox front office planned a welcome back news conference, and the team arranged for players to be in the room as Hendriks spoke with the media for the first time — an elementary show of support. Some veterans initially balked, and according to club sources, had to be talked into attending. The situation, one longtime White Sox staffer believed, was one of the worst things he had ever witnessed in professional sports.
The rifts went beyond the pitching staff, too. Former All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson was mired in a season-long slump while dealing with personal issues off the field and catcher Yasmani Grandal was described by one former teammate as someone who “tore people down instead of building them up.”
“It was as negative a place as I’ve seen anywhere,” said another club source.
Within a week after the White Sox traded Keynan Middleton to the Yankees during the 2023 season, the reliever spoke to ESPN about the White Sox’s culture. Asked where the void exists with the team, Middleton said: “Leadership in general. They say s— rolls downhill. I feel like some guys don’t want to speak up when they should have. It’s hard to police people when there are no rules. If guys are doing things that you think are wrong, who is it wrong to? You or them? It’s anyone’s judgment at that point.”
When some White Sox staffers read the words, they were furious, because they felt Middleton’s thoughts reflected a larger problem: With an inexperienced manager overseeing the clubhouse, the culture really belonged to the players, and they shared a large measure of responsibility for the problems.
At the 2023 trade deadline, other teams — aware of the dysfunction in the White Sox’s clubhouse — passed on opportunities to take on some of the veterans because of the ugliness of some of the emanating stories. One executive said of one of the pitchers the White Sox were trying to trade: “We’ve seen that act before.”
Grifol had a complicated clubhouse on his hands; he didn’t really do complicated. Some managers are practiced schmoozers, excellent politicians; Grifol is not, according to some peers. He is a hardcore baseball guy, strong in his beliefs, and expects players to be accountable. His preference, friends believe, would have been to focus on the day-to-day work, but instead, he felt compelled to tend to a fractured clubhouse.
At least one White Sox staffer said this took up a lot of Grifol’s energy. “When you get a first-time manager like that and veteran players, they will take advantage of him,” said the staffer. “They didn’t help him.”
Early in the 2024 season, with the White Sox losing so much again, Grifol’s situation looked untenable. The team was a mess in his first year as manager, and in his second year, he was working for a general manager who didn’t hire him. “He had no chance,” one organizational source said of Grifol.
His criticism after the loss to Baltimore didn’t help. The White Sox ended May in the midst of a 14-game losing streak — one of three double-digit skids the team would endure during the season — and entrenched their record pace.
Even the healthy players were struggling horrifically. Three players who Grifol was including in his lineup daily, given their stature within the roster — Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn and Sheets — ranked among the eight least productive players in the majors, according to FanGraphs, combining for minus-1.3 fWAR this season.
“I missed having healthy players,” Grifol told ESPN this week. “It’s not an excuse — that’s just the reality. I missed having Liam Hendriks and other really good players able to perform. It wasn’t the players’ fault. They just got hurt.”
Said a former White Sox player: “When things are going good, no one says anything. When things go bad, everyone starts pointing fingers.”
June 23
21-57
IN THE SEVENTH start of his career, Jonathan Cannon took the mound against the Tigers. His previous two outings had been strong — 8⅔ scoreless innings against Houston and seven one-run innings against Seattle — but on that day, it all fell apart quickly.
The Tigers, who’d scored just five runs over their previous six games, scored five in the first inning and four in the second. Cannon was pulled in the second inning. After the game, the 2022 third-round pick was asked about his outing: “Baseball is a cruel game, and sometimes it doesn’t go your way.”
Meanwhile, in the opposite dugout sat A.J. Hinch, an enduring symbol of what could have been for the White Sox — what many feel should have been. In October 2020, Hinch was in the last days of his year-long suspension for his role in the Houston Astros‘ sign-stealing scandal — and he was the first choice of then-GM Rick Hahn to take over as the White Sox manager. Hahn viewed Hinch as an ideal candidate: He had a championship pedigree, an excellent reputation for communication, and an advanced understanding in analytics honed during his time with the progressive Astros. For Hahn, Hinch would be the guy who was going to drive the White Sox forward and help the front office define for Reinsdorf where and how the organization was behind. The White Sox were on the upswing then, with a young, talented roster and coming off a wild-card appearance in 2020: an attractive job for a managerial candidate. It seemed such a perfect fit that friends of Hinch assumed that is where he would work in 2021.
Reinsdorf, however, wasn’t interested. He felt he had fired La Russa wrongly in 1986 and bore a debt to an old friend. Above all else, Reinsdorf — who declined to speak to ESPN for this story — is consistently steadfast to friends and employees. In his time as owner of the White Sox and Chicago Bulls, he has had a lifetime of battles with owners and others, but he trusts his people. “Fact is, he might be too trusting,” said one staffer. La Russa was hired without Hinch even going through a formal interview with the White Sox.
Players complained to their agents about the 76-year-old La Russa, feeling he was out of step with a much younger generation of players. Privately, they questioned a lot of his moves. Publicly, he was second-guessed by fans and media for on-field decisions. But La Russa was in his fourth decade as a manager, bearing a stature that helped sustain a general stability, and in La Russa’s first year in 2021, the White Sox won the AL Central with a 93-69 record. “To this day [Reinsdorf] will tell people hiring La Russa was the right move, especially after seeing how the team did after he left,” said one source.
La Russa was overcome by illness in his second season. When he left the team in August, the White Sox were 63-65. Disappointing, but not disastrous. The decision was made in the final days of the 2022 season that he wouldn’t return for 2023.
By then, Hinch’s Tigers were progressing; they finished in second place in the AL Central in 2023 and this year will end with their highest win total since 2016 and, likely, a wild-card spot. The Guardians and Royals have also improved, while the Twins remain consistently competitive. The AL Central is toughening.
The White Sox franchise, however, has moved in the other direction; the organization has fallen way behind, from top to bottom. After La Russa stepped down as manager, he was kept on as a consultant — and still had the ear of ownership.
Sources said that as Reinsdorf prepared to fire Hahn in August 2023, La Russa gave positive feedback about Getz, someone he’d gotten to know as the assistant GM of the White Sox, where he had worked since 2017.
A typical industry practice is to ask permission to speak to a range of candidates from other organizations — in some cases, division rivals, in an effort to glean a greater understanding of their information systems. Sometimes subterfuge is the only real reason for the interviews. But Reinsdorf wasn’t interested in that kind of learning.
He was presented the option of interviewing candidates outside the organization, and he declined. Getz was his guy, and nobody was going to change his mind. Getz was hired nine days after Williams and Hahn were dismissed.
“Jerry’s hands are still involved in the major decision-making,” one White Sox employee said. “I mean he’s the owner but whether La Russa was the right hire or not he didn’t let his baseball people make that call. It was laughable what he said [last year] … about letting his front office make decisions. Maybe in basketball, but not baseball.”
Getz, with his years of experience in the White Sox’s offices, is experienced in working with Reinsdorf — they discuss his moves, certainly, but Getz does not feel micromanaged, even as he immediately looked to implement foundational changes within the organization. Last fall, he hired one of the most progressive pitching minds in the sport, Brian Bannister, away from the San Francisco Giants, and installed Paul Janish, the former major league shortstop and Rice head coach, to lead the team’s player development.
This year, that work continued, even as Getz prepared for the daunting month ahead of him: The MLB draft and trade deadline were weeks away.
His focus was there, to the frustration of Grifol and some of his coaches, who believed Getz was not giving the big league team enough of his attention. They wanted to hear more from him and worried that the lack of communication was a sign of how he regards them.
At the All-Star break, Grifol held a team meeting, noting the team’s trajectory, their pace to set a new record for losses. No one in the organization wants that, he said, adding that this was a chance for many of them to play and shine in the big leagues — and he encouraged them to put in the work to make that happen. The White Sox lost their next game, extending their losing streak to five. And they continued to lose.
July 25
27-77
BY JULY, IT was a fait accompli that the White Sox would become one of the most prominent sellers before the July 30 trade deadline. There was no gradual rollout for Getz in his first summer. Instead, he had to consider dozens of possible trade combinations in a truncated timeline, and some of his peers with other teams wondered if he was ready, especially after some of his first trades.
The previous fall, he had traded Bummer, a coveted left-handed reliever, to the Braves for five players. The return stunned some rival evaluators, because they believed some of the players in the deal likely would’ve been non-tendered by the Braves. In truth, Getz was fully aware of the non-tender possibility — because Braves exec Alex Anthopoulos had told him so — and wanted the deal anyway, to ensure the arrival of Mike Soroka in the much-depleted rotation.
In the midst of the 2024 season, Getz and his staff had some of the best options in a depleted trade market: Erick Fedde, whom Getz signed to a savvy deal in the offseason after a year in Korea; Kopech, who struggled in the closer role but had 59 strikeouts in 43⅔ innings; and, most notably, Crochet, who had blossomed into a dominant starter. Getz was in constant communication with other teams, but he made the decision early: If no team met their asks, they’d keep the left-hander.
Five days before the deadline, Getz was eating breakfast when he got texts from a team asking him about tweets just posted that suggested Crochet would only pitch in the postseason if he got a contract extension — something Getz had not heard before from the player or his agent, Andrew Nacario.
The timing of the breaking news was awful — not because it affected interest, but because with little more than 100 hours remaining before the trade deadline, Getz knew front offices would try to use the contract situation as leverage to diminish the asking price. But contending teams kept making offers — the Dodgers, Phillies and Braves at the forefront. “The sincere teams remained sincere,” said one White Sox source, “and the teams that weren’t sincere — they were out.” Said a rival executive: “I don’t think [the contract demand] affected his value.”
The White Sox believed that the Dodgers had enough to make a deal without top catching prospect Dalton Rushing included, but that offer from L.A. never developed. The Phillies turned down the White Sox’s request for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter as part of the package. The Braves had lots of pitching to offer, but the White Sox preferred a deal for position players.
In the end, Getz traded a chunk of his roster: Fedde, Kopech and Tommy Pham as part of a three-team trade with the Cardinals and Dodgers, and shortstop Paul DeJong to the Royals. Getz decided he would keep Crochet for the rest of the regular season and into the winter. He called Reinsdorf to tell him, and Reinsdorf was nonplussed in his response.
In some other front offices, Getz’s choices were panned. Some evaluators believed he didn’t get enough in the Fedde-Kopech-Pham trade; others questioned how he could’ve let the moment pass without dealing Crochet. He had the best available starting pitcher in the trade market, with big-market teams interested, and critics believed Getz should have flipped Crochet for building-block prospects. They wondered what kind of counsel he was getting from Reinsdorf, and others. “Somebody needed to tell him, ‘Look, this is the time when you have to trade him,'” said a longtime front office type who has worked through many deadlines.
Some rival evaluators disagree with the criticism, and so do the White Sox. Getz thinks Crochet will have at least the same trade value this winter, when teams in need of an ace will have more time to weigh the choice between paying big dollars for free agents like Blake Snell or dealing prospects for Crochet. And now teams know for sure that Crochet can handle a starter’s workload over a full season.
Hours after the White Sox made the decision to hold Crochet, they lost their 16th straight game.
Aug. 8
28-88
AS SOON AS the trade deadline passed, Getz wanted to move on from his manager, according to sources familiar with his thinking. It was not a matter of if, but when. But with rumors swirling about Grifol’s immediate future, a meeting took place on July 31 between Reinsdorf, Getz, Grifol and La Russa. And then, for a week, in one of the stranger twists of the season, nothing happened.
On Aug. 6, a losing streak that began before the All-Star break finally ended, at an American League record 21 games, with a win over Oakland. “It was just really good to get this behind us. I thought we played a clean game today,” Grifol told reporters. “Any time you win it’s great. Any time you win when you lose 21 in a row it’s even better. I’m proud of these guys.”
Two days later, Getz called Grifol to tell him he was making a change. Third base coach Eddie Rodriguez, assistant hitting coach Mike Tosar and bench coach Charlie Montoyo — all of the White Sox’s Latino staffers — were also fired. Grifol is a lifelong friend of Tosar and knew Rodriguez from their days together in the Royals’ organization. Getz thought that while Montoyo held the title of bench coach, Grifol was mostly leaning on Rodriguez and Tosar.
Getz believed that to get the White Sox to a better place, these were the right staff moves to make in early August. But he knew the optics of the choices were less than ideal. Getz called Michael Hill, MLB’s senior vice president for on-field operations, to provide background for the decision. The league monitors the diversity of MLB coaching staffs and is expected to do so on the White Sox’s next hires.
The front office promoted first-year coach Grady Sizemore to interim manager, essentially taking on-the-field decisions out of the dugout and into the executive suite. Sizemore had expressed no desire to manage but was picked because players like him. Getz stated that he’d look outside the White Sox family for a permanent replacement, squashing any talk of a reunion with Ozzie Guillen, who provides television commentary on games, or popular former catcher A.J. Pierzynski.
A month later, with the White Sox closing in on the all-time record for losses, the typically reticent Reinsdorf issued a statement. “Going back to last year, we have made difficult decisions and changes to begin building a foundation for future success,” he said. “What has impressed me is how our players and staff have continued to work and bring a professional attitude to the ballpark each day despite a historically difficult season. No one is happy with the results, but I commend the continued effort.”
Weeks after Pham was traded, he reflected on his time as a White Sox. The 1962 Mets had players like Pham — established veterans near the end of their days as active players, scu as Gil Hodges and Don Zimmer, who became witnesses to history.
“Everything compounded on the White Sox this season with injuries and rebuilding,” Pham said. “Guys are being allowed to develop in the big leagues and that’s never been done. Ten years ago you weren’t allowed to develop in the big leagues.
“I think the White Sox problem isn’t just a White Sox problem. I think it’s a universal problem going on in MLB. We have teams that are developing players in the big leagues. We’ve never seen that. Add all the injuries and the Sox are where they are.”
Sept. 24
36-120
BY MID-SEPTEMBER, IT seemed a matter of when, not if, the White Sox would break the Mets’ record. A long road trip to the West Coast garnered a 3-6 record, and the White Sox returned home with 120 losses.
Much of Tuesday’s game played out like so many of the defeats that came before it. The White Sox hitters failed to score for the game’s first seven innings. The bullpen finally wilted, and the Angels took the lead, with “Sell the team!” chants raining down from the stands.
“I get the frustration,” Sizemore said. “They want to see wins and they want to see them now.”
Though Chicago’s rally then postponed the seemingly inevitable, there are five more games in the season; the White Sox could climb to as many as 125 losses. Their path from here is unclear — because of new collective bargaining rules, the White Sox can’t receive a draft lottery pick; even after the worst season in history, they’ll pick no higher than 10th in next year’s draft. There is no quick path back to respectability for a team in the third-largest market in MLB. Fans booing might be the norm for the foreseeable future.
Still, Getz and his staff are looking ahead: refining a process through which they will hire the next manager, among a wide-ranging field of candidates from around the industry. As he did with lengthy processes to hire Bannister and Janish, Getz’s goal is to objectively pick the person who best fits the White Sox and what they need moving forward. This week, Getz made another important hire, tapping longtime scout David Keller — who spent many years with the Mets — to oversee their international department.
In mid-September, Getz watched a recent interview of UConn basketball coach Dan Hurley, about a tense meeting with his predecessor, Jim Calhoun. Early in Hurley’s tenure, he had complained to Calhoun about work impediments; Calhoun tells Hurley to stop whining and do the job. Getz relates to this. And as the White Sox disaster reaches its conclusion, Getz feels … energized. The challenge — the opportunity — is now as immense as the failure.
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Bradford Doolittle
Something has to change.
Of course, much has already changed since we last convened with our final preseason projections. But for each MLB team, playing five weeks of a new season will inevitably expose additional shifts that are needed. Every team, no matter how splendid or how dreadful the start, has something.
One thing the forecasts suggested that has borne out so far is the relative levels of stratification between the leagues. The National League, led by the champion Dodgers, looked top-heavy, and while not all of the teams we thought would make up that elite tier are a perfect match with the forecasts, the overall dynamic is very much one of dominance. Meanwhile, the American League figured to be a whole bunch of teams in spitting distance of break even, with little separation among the top 12-13 teams in the circuit.
How will these dynamics hold up until we Stock Watch again in June?
Each team’s ability, or lack thereof, to make the following changes might determine that.
Win average: 104.5 (Last: 102.4, 1st)
In the playoffs: 98.8% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 28.5% (Last: 28.4%)
What must change: Rotation health
There were actually some bumpy moments in the early weeks of the season for the Dodgers but nothing has happened to really knock them out of the favorite’s perch as we think ahead to late October. One thing that could change that is L.A.’s ever-growing injured list, especially its collection of 60-day IL assignments. For all the depth the Dodgers seemed to build up in their rotation over the winter, they’ve still gone with two bullpen games already. And this doesn’t even include Shohei Ohtani, who’s still building up so he can take his turns in the rotation. Given their recent history of starter injuries … maybe he shouldn’t? Including the two openers, the Dodgers have already had 10 different pitchers start games.
Win average: 96.0 (Last: 90.2, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 88.6% (Last: 73.5%)
Champions: 10.5% (Last: 6.0%)
What must change: Middle relief instability
There hasn’t been much to complain about with the Mets. Though New York hasn’t overtaken the Dodgers in the simulations from a going-forward perspective, the Mets have probably been the better team to this point. The Dodgers have the better winning percentage, but the Mets’ Pythagorean pace (109.7) is the National League’s best. With not much to nitpick about, the relief contingent in front of Edwin Diaz needs to coalesce a little more. Ryne Stanek has the pen’s second-highest average leverage index but has struggled, and the two top lefties (A.J. Minter and Danny Young) have already been lost to injury. Still, if this is a team’s biggest worry at the beginning of May, it’s in a good place.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 84.3, 13th)
In the playoffs: 92.7% (Last: 51.2%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last: 1.5%)
What must change: Ninth-inning drama
The Cubs have mostly bludgeoned their opposition so far with a breakout offense that ranks among baseball’s best in pretty much every major category. Assuming Chicago won’t average over six runs per game all season, eventually its thin bullpen is going to move into the spotlight. The Cubs have blown seven of their first 15 save opportunities. Closer Ryan Pressly has managed to white-knuckle his way through most of his outings but has struck out fewer than four batters per nine innings, with more walks than K’s. Overall, Chicago’s relievers rank 28th in swing-and-miss percentage, underscoring the general lack of dominance in that unit. The Cubs have been strong in every other facet but for them to establish themselves as a true front-runner, the relief leaks will need to be shored up.
Win average: 93.7 (Last: 83.0, 16th)
In the playoffs: 91.7% (Last: 41.2%)
Champions: 10.1% (Last: 1.8%)
What must change: Shortstop play
You hate to pick on Trey Sweeney, who accounts for most of Detroit’s starts at shortstop, but there just aren’t many shortcomings for the Tigers so far. No team has improved its forecast more since the start of the season. Detroit is now landing a No. 1 playoff seed more often than any other AL team in the simulations, though the Yankees’ pennant odds are still a tick better because of a higher baseline. (New York has a lower regular-season win forecast because of schedule differences.) Sweeney hasn’t hit (.234/.317/.355)* and the Tigers’ shortstop defensive rating, per FanGraphs, ranks 20th. It’s the most obvious blemish on what is shaping up as a pristine season in Detroit.
* These numbers were .202/.282/.303 entering Sunday, but Sweeney must have had spies watching over my shoulder. Against the Angels, he went 4-for-5 with a homer and six RBIs. That’s more like it.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 84.5, 12th)
In the playoffs: 76.9% (Last: 44.4%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 1.8%)
What must change: Lineup depth
The Padres are off to a great start, largely on the strength of a bullpen that has been off the charts. The relievers have racked up 14 saves (they’ve blown only one) and 27 holds while compiling a collective 1.73 ERA. Those numbers are both unbelievable and unsustainable. When some regression sets in, a top-heavy lineup will need to get production from spots like catcher (21st in OPS) and left field (27th) to offset the difference. We kind of knew this was how the Padres were constructed, but still — San Diego has given too many plate appearances to too many players in what we’ll call the post-productive phases of their careers.
Win average: 91.4 (Last: 84.3, 13th)
In the playoffs: 85.4% (Last: 46.8%)
Champions: 8.1% (Last: 2.5%)
What must change: First base production
Generally speaking, the more specific the issue we choose to worry about, the better off the team. For Seattle, the primary concern the past couple of years has been more wide-lens than specific: offense. For now, that problem has apparently been largely solved. The Mariners’ offense has been one of the hottest in baseball and over the past couple of weeks, with its hitters even managing to mash at T-Mobile Park. So rather than worrying about the offense, writ large, we can point out that at first base, the Rowdy Tellez–Donovan Solano combo is mostly responsible for Seattle’s .518 OPS (tied for 29th in MLB) at the position. This projected to be a major hole before the season, so the chances of self-correction are limited. Now, the stakes are higher to shore up the weak spots, since the Mariners have emerged as the early front-runner to win the AL West.
Win average: 90.8 (Last: 88.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 84.5% (Last: 68.3%)
Champions: 9.3% (Last: 6.5%)
What must change: Rotation depth chart
For a first-place team, there is plenty to worry about when it comes to the Yankees. They’ve had the best position player (Aaron Judge, by far) and arguably the best pitcher (Max Fried) in baseball. The relief staff has dealt with the struggles of demoted closer Devin Williams, but the bullpen still ranks sixth in relief ERA and with only 14% of inherited runners scoring. But the rotation has been below average (4.07 ERA and only eight quality starts) despite Fried’s great beginning. Even worse, with Gerrit Cole out for the season and Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman currently on the shelf, it’s not immediately clear how this is going to get better. This issue might really start to mushroom if and when Fried regresses from his hot start.
Win average: 90.3 (Last: 89.2, 4th)
In the playoffs: 66.2% (Last: 68.9%)
Champions: 4.1% (Last: 4.8%)
What must change: Slumping stalwarts
The Phillies’ roster was constructed on star power, not depth, and while that has worked well enough the past few years, they need the stars to produce. The “it’s still early” caveat applies, but so far, Bryce Harper hasn’t hit like Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm‘s production has gone missing, Aaron Nola just earned his first win but remains under league average (91 ERA+) and key bullpen acquisition Jordan Romano has gotten shelled. If the Phillies don’t want to lose sight of the front-running Mets in the NL East race, they’ll need their main cogs to start firing.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 79.9, 20th)
In the playoffs: 59.7% (Last: 24.6%)
Champions: 2.5% (Last: 0.6%)
What must change: Team batting average
The Giants have inserted themselves into a top-heavy NL postseason chase that they didn’t figure to be a part of when the season began. The pitching and defense has been stellar, but the offense hasn’t kept up. San Francisco ranks eighth in walks percentage but 24th in batting average. That can work in a take-and-rake general approach to offense, but the Giants are only middle of the pack in homers. Since they aren’t very athletic and rarely steal bases, this leads to uneven production. The Giants can hang in contention with a league-level batting average, but they simply don’t hit enough homers to do so if they continue to hover around .230. That puts the onus on low-average hitters such as Matt Chapman (.198), LaMonte Wade Jr. (.141, ouch) and Willy Adames (.230 and now four homers after hitting two on Sunday) to up the ante.
Win average: 87.1 (Last: 87.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 44.2% (Last: 58.4%)
Champions: 1.7% (Last: 3.0%)
What must change: Bullpen health
In what’s shaping up as a historically good NL West (save for the Rockies), little problems can quickly become big ones. For the Diamondbacks, a shiny start has lost its luster a bit as they have battled bullpen problems in both the performance and health categories. The unit scuffled badly during a 5-9 stretch, posting a 5.61 collective ERA while blowing six of 10 save opportunities. Closer A.J. Puk (elbow) is on the 60-day IL and Justin Martinez (shoulder) hit the 15-day IL after two concerning outings with diminished velocity. Both are expected to help later this season but for that to matter, the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Shelby Miller and Ryan Thompson need to step up in high-leverage spots.
Win average: 86.8(Last: 88.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 66.6% (Last: 68.7%)
Champions: 3.7% (Last: 5.4%)
What must change: Homer count
It has been a mixed bag for the Astros. Hunter Brown has been one of the game’s best pitchers and Josh Hader is having a vintage season at the back of the bullpen. The relief staff, in general, has been strong. But the lineup has been below average with a lack of power at the root of the issue. No Astro has homered more than four times and Houston ranks 21st in home run and overall slugging percentage. It’s an issue up and down the lineup but things would look a lot more promising if Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez were going deep at their usual rates.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 96.5, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 43.5% (Last: 91.1%)
Champions: 2.2% (Last: 14.4%)
What must change: IL roster
An 0-7 start threatened to sink the Braves’ season before it began. They recovered — nearly climbing to .500 at one point — but they have a lot of work to do. Hopes that the Braves can still reach their ceiling hinge on the longed-for returns of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. In the meantime, they need underperforming stalwarts such as Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Chris Sale and Raisel Iglesias to hit their stride. Atlanta can’t keep plodding along under .500 in this year’s NL while waiting for its stars to get healthy, but if the Braves can stay above water until then, they might be able to really take off. Considering what we’ve seen so far, the fact that they won’t see the Dodgers again during the regular season certainly helps.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 47.4% (Last: 48.8%)
Champions: 1.3% (Last: 2.3%)
What must change: Outfield production
The Royals’ offense, in general, has been missing, with only Bobby Witt Jr. producing all season. But the outfield ranks 29th in bWAR as a group — the continuation of a problem that hovered over the roster last season. MJ Melendez was sent to the minors to find himself. His initial results in Omaha suggest he’ll be searching for some time. Hunter Renfroe has produced less than a good-hitting pitcher. Mark Canha has helped in a big role and Drew Waters has had some nice moments. But the Royals need some stable offense from the corner outfielders, making this a must-get as the trade deadline starts to loom.
Win average: 82.9 (Last: 77.7, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 40.9% (Last: 19.0%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last: 0.5%)
What must change: Emmanuel Clase
You figured the Guardians’ bullpen would fall off a bit after last season’s off-the-charts showing. That has happened even though set-up relievers Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have been every bit as good as they were in 2024. No, the problem has been a mystifying start by Clase, who has already given up more runs (11) than he did all of last season (10). He already has won four games, matching a career high, but of course that’s not necessarily a good sign for a closer. Clase’s dominance was the biggest differentiator on last year’s team. The 2025 squad, which has been outscored by 23 runs despite a 20-14 record, needs him to approximate that performance.
Win average: 82.8 (Last: 84.1, 15th)
In the playoffs: 43.6% (Last: 45.6%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 2.5%)
What must change: Bullpen depth
Despite an elite offense, the Red Sox have hovered around .500 because of a thin bullpen. The relievers have blown as many saves (eight) as they’ve converted and only one team has seen a higher rate of inherited runners score. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been fine, but he hasn’t had enough situational help. Boston ranks in the middle of the pack with a 4.11 relief ERA and its 10 holds are tied for the fewest of any bullpen. The rotation has been solid, but it’ll need more support to remain that way.
Win average: 81.9 (Last: 87.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 38.1% (Last: 61.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 5.2%)
What must change: The offense
Even after an eight-run outburst against the division-leading Mariners on Sunday, Texas ranks 29th in run scoring. Only the Rockies have scored fewer. It’s a stunning turnaround for an offense that kept scoreboards spinning in 2023 on the way to a World Series title. Last year’s falloff was steep, and based on what we’ve seen so far, hopes for positive regression are fading. Adolis Garcia is having another down season. Marcus Semien is below replacement. And the key additions from the winter — Joc Pederson and Jake Burger — have hurt more than they’ve helped. Pederson is hitting a remarkable .094 with a .334 OPS, and Burger (.561) was sent to the minors. Not good. The Rangers’ brass has taken note: Offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker, who was with the club during its 2023 run, was fired after Sunday’s game.
Win average: 79.5 (Last: 85.1, 10th)
In the playoffs: 25.7% (Last: 52.4%)
Champions: 0.7% (Last: 2.7%)
What must change: Carlos Correa
For once, we don’t have to cite the availability of the Twins’ stars as their primary problem. That’s still an issue, too, as Royce Lewis has yet to make his season debut — but the larger problem has been the star who has stayed on the field, Correa, is off to a miserable start. He’s hitting .216 with a lone homer and a .560 OPS to begin the season, hamstringing a Twins lineup that has struggled. Everything is off, even Correa’s plate discipline, as he has walked at a rate less than half his career norm. The Twins need more to turn around than just Correa, but no one else on the roster has fallen as far below expectation as he has.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 82.9, 17th)
In the playoffs: 25.0% (Last: 39.2%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 1.6%)
What must change: Powerless stars
After the formerly punchless Royals hammered seven homers in Baltimore on Sunday, the Blue Jays sank to last in the majors with 23 homers. The power trio of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Anthony Santander and Bo Bichette have hit nine of those dingers between them — and that’s just not enough. Guerrero will be fine. Bichette has recovered most of the batting average he lost during last year’s .225 season, but he has homered only once. This is a player in his age-27 season who topped 20 homers in each season from 2021 to 2023. Finally, Santander has flailed during his first Toronto season, hitting four homers with a 67 OPS+. This can’t continue if the Jays are to contend.
Win average: 79.1 (Last: 79.9, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.4% (Last: 28.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)
What must change: The pitching
The Brewers are built to win on pitching and defense. Every year, they overperform their projections because of an organizational ability to find, or produce, quality pitchers. But so far, they just haven’t found enough of them in 2025. The overall run prevention has been off. In the first season after Willy Adames’ departure, the team defense has been more decent than elite. The rotation has received good work from Freddy Peralta, Jose Quintana and upstart Chad Patrick, but the falloff after that has been steep. Brandon Woodruff might return to the mix soon and that will certainly help. More troubling is Milwaukee’s normally airtight relief staff, which has struggled to finish games and strand inherited runners.
This all needs to turn around — and fast. With the Cubs emerging as a potential powerhouse in the NL Central, being an above-average team is no longer the bar to clear in the division. And it’s unlikely the Central’s second-place club is going to have a chance at a wild-card slot — not in this league.
Win average: 78.8 (Last: 80.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 22.3% (Last: 27.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.8%)
What must change: Home-field disadvantage
No matter what happened, this was going to be a strange season for the Rays. Playing in a minor league facility owned by a division rival was going to take some getting used to. The problem for the Rays is that they need to get used to it quickly, because of a schedule heavy on early home games. When the Rays depart for a six-game trip on June 8, they will have played nearly twice as many games in Tampa (43) as on the road (22). That means, of course, that the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule after that, which would be fine if the Rays were playing well at George M. Steinbrenner Field — but they aren’t. When the Rays return to Florida on Tuesday, they’ll be 9-13 at their temporary venue. With a lot more games in Tampa coming up, it’s an issue they need to fix fast. If they don’t, they’ll be looking at an uphill battle for playoff contention, and most of those hills will be confronted away from home.
Win average: 78.8 (Last: 75.9, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 10.6% (Last: 14.6%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.2%)
What must change: Lead protection
The Reds might be good. The pitching staff (122 ERA+) ranks third in the NL. The rotation and the bullpen have contributed even though presumed closer Alexis Diaz floundered so badly that he was sent to the minors. Emilio Pagan has been OK in Diaz’s place, but he’s better suited for set-up work. Diaz’s trouble started last season, so it’s hard to say where his trajectory is headed. Recently recalled Luis Mey has electric stuff, but he’s unproven and prone to lapses of command. However it happens, manager Terry Francona needs someone to step up to lock down the ninth because the overall pitching is contention-worthy. The lineup … well, it’s another reason why the Reds can’t afford back-of-the-bullpen inconsistency.
Win average: 77.5 (Last: 73.5, 26th)
In the playoffs: 16.1% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: The defense
This is shaping up as an exciting first season in Sacramento for the Athletics. The offense has been productive and looks legit, especially if rookie Nick Kurtz hits the ground running. The pitching is going to be more of a scramble, but what would help if the Athletics could field. They rank last or second to last in the leading defensive metrics. Only the Red Sox have committed more errors. Some teams can overwhelm opponents by favoring offense over defense at most positions, but the Athletics aren’t likely to be one of them. Key spots to shore up are second base and third base, positions that aren’t producing at the plate, either, so at the very least the Athletics could favor a glove.
Win average: 76.8 (Last: 81.0, 18th)
In the playoffs: 6.4% (Last: 33.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.7%)
What must change: Ryan Helsley
The Cardinals are perfectly mediocre, owning a run differential that has hovered around break even. Their record is a little worse than the expectation the so-so differential portends, largely because of a 4-5 record in one-run games — two of those coming in Sunday’s doubleheader against the Mets. This is not exclusively because of Helsley, but he has not been on his game so far with two blown saves in seven chances and walking nearly as many batters as he has struck out. The strikeout and walk rates are alarming, as they reflect what Helsley was early in his career before he ascended to All-Star status. If the mediocre Cardinals are going to do better than middling, they need their star closer to help them close out more than their share of close games. The kicker, though, is that if the Cardinals go into offload mode, this version of Helsley isn’t going to look nearly as alluring in the trade marketplace.
Win average: 75.7 (Last: 88.0, 7th)
In the playoffs: 11.7% (Last: 64.7%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 5.9%)
What must change: Right-handed hitting
No team has lost more from its preseason projection than Baltimore, so it’s very difficult to boil it down to one big thing. The problem with right-handed hitting could also be framed as a problem with hitting left-handed pitchers. The Orioles rank fifth with a .774 OPS against righties but are dead last against lefties (an anemic .502). Their righty hitters (Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg, Gary Sanchez, et al.) are hitting a collective .200/.261/.319. This of course comes after the Orioles moved in the left-field fence at Camden Yards over the winter. How’s that going? Opposing righty hitters have a .972 OPS there, while their Baltimore counterparts are at .586. The visitors have outhomered Baltimore’s righty swingers 20-8 at Oriole Park.
Win average: 70.5 (Last: 67.7, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 1.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Dylan Crews
The Nationals are competitive already and often fun to watch. Actual contention seems like a longshot, though, especially given the current state of their bullpen. Still, the more long-term questions the Nationals can answer in the affirmative, the better they will be able to set themselves up for a real push in 2026. At some point, infield prospect Brady House should join the big league fray. Until that happens, eyeballs remain on Crews, the touted second-year player whose MLB career has sputtered at the beginning. Crews looked lost early, going 5-for-47 with zero extra-base hits to start. Then came a two-week splurge with four homers and a 1.026 OPS over 13 outings. He’s 1-for-21 since. More than anything, Crews needs to get off the roller coaster and enjoy a nice, prolonged run of good, solid consistency.
Win average: 66.8 (Last: 73.8, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 8.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: Roster make-up
What do I mean by “roster make-up”? Remember the glory days of April 12, when L.A. was 9-5 and it seemed its floor-raising project from the winter was going to work? Since then, the Angels have a minus-65 run differential, 14 runs worse than any other team and, yes, that includes the Rockies. And also, Mike Trout is back on the injured list. The Angels are in the bottom five in OPS, ERA and defensive runs saved. This incidentally isn’t a tanking team. So how to change the roster makeup? Maybe just go young and lose big? The losing might happen anyway and, besides, what the Angels are doing now is not working.
Win average: 66.0 (Last: 74.2, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.2% (Last: 10.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: Oneil Cruz‘s defense
According to baseball-reference.com, Cruz’s offense has been nine runs better than average, once you combine his hitting (.243/.377/.505 with eight homers) and baserunning (14 steals). His defensive performance in center field is minus-9 runs, erasing all of that offensive value. His bWAR (0.5) is a product of accounting — positional value and replacement value. Cruz is now minus-12 in fielding runs over the past two seasons in center. His career figure at shortstop was minus-9. Given his speed and arm strength, wherever Cruz plays, this cannot continue to happen. For all that athletic ability and offensive output, to this point he’d have produced almost as much value as a DH.
Win average: 63.6 (Last: 62.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Sandy Alcantara‘s command
It’s great to have Alcantara back after Tommy John surgery. But so far, he has been a little tough to watch. It’s often said that command lags behind stuff for many surgery returnees, and that certainly seems to be the case for the 2022 NL Cy Young winner. His walk ratio (5.9 per nine innings) is more than double his career norm and his strikeout rate (15.8%) is the lowest of his career. Alcantara threw strikes nearly 69% of the time during the three years before he was injured; this season he’s at 62%. His velocity isn’t quite all the way back either, but he’s still averaging 97.4 mph with his fastball. He’s just not putting it where it needs to be.
Win average: 54.9 (Last: 54.1, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Fan patience
To paraphrase Timothée Chalamet, now ain’t the time for your tears, Sox fans. That was last year. The White Sox are the team nearest to me — less than two miles from my keyboard — so I get a good sampling of fan feedback as I get out and about, plus plenty from the local media. This isn’t a scientifically-informed observation, but it feels as if many are missing the point. The White Sox tore the team down to the studs — last year — and this is the aftermath. The bounce-back was never going to be immediate. This year’s team stinks, sure, but it’s playing a much better brand of baseball than it did last year. There are players on the roster now who might be around for awhile and more are on the way. The rebuild isn’t even 20% complete and another 100-plus losses is a near certainty, but things are better. They had to be. Watching a team come together required patience, but it’s better than what White Sox fans dealt with a year ago.
Win average: 44.6 (Last: 57.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Everything
The Rockies’ saves leader (Zach Agnos with two) has struck out one of the 26 batters he has faced. Their wins leader (Chase Dollander, a legitimately exciting prospect) has a 6.48 ERA. The team OPS+ is 62. Their leader in plate appearances (Ryan McMahon with 136) has an OPS of .574. Did the Rockies tear down? If so, how long have they been rebuilding? It’s really hard to make sense of the last half-decade or so of this franchise, and at this point, there seems to be no relief on the horizon. They did change hitting coaches.
With the final game of the first round of 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs completed Sunday night, there’s no rest for hockey fans. The second round begins Monday.
The first series to get rolling features the two remaining teams from the Atlantic Division, as the Florida Panthers visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Read on for a game preview with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Sunday’s game and the three stars of the first round from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 1 | 8 p.m. ET | ESPN
ESPN BET has installed the Panthers as the favorites in the series at -175, while the Maple Leafs are +150 to win the series against the defending Stanley Cup champions.
The Panthers won the regular-season series 3-1 by an aggregate score of 13-7. A major factor in those four games was the Panthers’ power play, which converted five of 11 chances (45.5%). For comparison, the Leafs’ power play converted only one of nine opportunities (11.1%).
This is the second time these clubs have met in the postseason; the other time was also the second round in 2023. Florida eliminated Toronto in five games, punctuated by an overtime win in Game 5. (Nick Cousins scored the goal.)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Steven Lorentz and Anthony Stolarz won the Stanley Cup with the 2024 Panthers. The only previous playoff series in NHL history in which three players dressed against a team with which they won a Cup during the previous season was when Los Angeles Kings teammates Wayne Gretzky, Mike Krushelnyski and Marty McSorley skated against the Edmonton Oilers in 1989.
The Panthers have won more playoff games (39) since 2021 than they did in their first 26 seasons (19). Their 39 wins and 66 games played in the postseason since 2021 lead the NHL.
Florida’s postseason goal-scoring leaderboard features current players through the top four spots: Carter Verhaeghe (28), Sam Reinhart (23), Aleksander Barkov (20), Matthew Tkachuk (20).
This is the Leafs’ ninth straight postseason appearance, which is the longest active streak in the NHL and tied for the second longest in franchise history. That other nine-year streak ended in 1967 with a Stanley Cup win.
Toronto captain Auston Matthews is tied with Darryl Sittler for seventh in franchise history in playoff goals, with 25. His next goal will push him into a tie for fifth, with Steve Thomas and George Armstrong. Wendel Clark is atop the leaderboard, with 34.
Arda’s three stars from Round 1
Rantanen had 12 points in the first round to help the Stars eliminate his former team the Avalanche. He had multiple Stanley Cup playoff firsts along the way, including the first Game 7 with a third-period hat trick (“The Rantanen Game”).
McDavid put the team on his back many times during the series against the Kings, especially early. He finished with 11 points in the series, as the Oilers sent the Kings home in the first round for the fourth straight season.
The netminder allowed two goals or fewer in four of the Caps’ five games against the Canadiens, earning a .922 save percentage.
Sunday’s score
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (2OT)
WPG wins 4-3, plays DAL in Round 2
The Blues raced out to a quick 2-0 lead in the first period — on goals by Jordan Kyrou and Mathieu Joseph — and many thought this could be another bad playoff memory for Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Though the Jets got one back in the second off the stick of Cole Perfetti, Blues center Radek Faksa scored with under a minute left in the period, giving them a 3-1 lead heading into the third.
St. Louis carried that lead into the final two minutes, when the Jets furiously rallied; Vladislav Namestnikov scored at 18:04, and Perfetti deflected in the game-tying goal with three seconds remaining. The teams fought hard through the first 36 minutes of OT, before Adam Lowry tipped Neal Pionk‘s shot from the point past Jordan Binnington for the series-clinching tally. Full recap.
0:35
Jets score tying goal in final seconds of regulation
Cole Perfetti knocks in the tying goal for the Jets with one second remaining in regulation.
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Andrea Adelson
ORLANDO, Fla. — Scott Frost walks into the UCF football building and into his office, the one he used the last time he had this job, eight years ago. The shades are drawn, just like they used to be. There are drawings from his three kids tacked to the walls. There are still trophies sitting on a shelf.
He still parks in the same spot before he walks into that same building and sits at the same desk. The only thing that has changed is that the desk is positioned in a different part of the room.
But the man doing all the same things at the University of Central Florida is a different Scott Frost than the one who left following that undefeated 2017 season to take the head coach job at Nebraska.
UCF might look the same, but the school is different now, too. The Knights are now in a Power 4 conference, and there is now a 12-team College Football Playoff that affords them the opportunity to play for national championships — as opposed to self-declaring them. Just outside his office, construction is underway to upgrade the football stadium. The same, but different.
“I know I’m a wiser person and smarter football coach,” Frost said during a sit-down interview with ESPN. “When you’re young, you think you have it all figured out. I don’t think you really get better as a person unless you go through really good things, and really bad things. I just know I’m where I’m supposed to be.”
Out on the practice field, Frost feels the most at home — he feels comfort in going back to the place that has defined nearly every day of his life. As a young boy, he learned the game from his mom and dad, both football coaches, then thrived as a college and NFL player before going into coaching.
He coaches up his players with a straightforwardness that quarterbacks coach McKenzie Milton remembers fondly from their previous time together at UCF. Milton started at quarterback on the 2017 undefeated team, and the two remained close after Frost left.
“I see the same version of him from when I was here as a player,” Milton said. “Even though the dynamic in college football has changed dramatically with the portal and NIL, I think Coach Frost is one of the few coaches that can still bring a group of guys together and turn them into a team, just with who he is and what he’s done and what he’s been through in his life. He knows what it looks like to succeed, both as a coach and a player.”
Since his return, Frost has had to adjust to those changes to college football, but he said, “I love coming into work every day. We’ve got the right kids who love football. We’re working them hard. They want to be pushed. They want to be challenged. We get to practice with palm trees and sunshine and, we’re playing big-time football. But it’s also just not the constant stress meat grinder of some other places.”
Meat grinder of some other places.
Might he mean a place such as Nebraska?
“You can think what you want,” Frost said. “One thing I told myself — I’m never going to talk about that. It just doesn’t feel good to talk about. I’ll get asked 100 questions. This is about UCF. I just don’t have anything to say.”
Frost says he has no regrets about leaving UCF, even though he didn’t get the results he had hoped for at his alma mater. When Nebraska decided to part ways with coach Mike Riley in 2017, Frost seemed the best, most obvious candidate to replace him. He had been the starting quarterback on the 1997 team, the last Nebraska team to win a national title.
He now had the coaching résumé to match. Frost had done the unthinkable at UCF — taking a program that was winless the season before he arrived, to undefeated and the talk of the college football world just two years later.
But he could not ignore the pull of Nebraska and the opportunities that came along with power conference football.
“I was so happy here,” Frost said. “We went undefeated and didn’t get a chance to win a championship, at least on the field. You are always striving to reach higher goals. I had always told myself I wasn’t going to leave here unless there was a place that you can legitimately go and win a national championship. It was a tough decision because I didn’t want to leave regardless of which place it was.”
Indeed, Frost maintains he was always happy at UCF. But he also knew returning to Nebraska would make others happy, too.
“I think I kind of knew that wasn’t best for me,” he said. “It was what some other people wanted me to do to some degree.”
In four-plus seasons with the Cornhuskers, Frost went 16-31 — including 5-22 in one-score games. He was fired three games into the 2022 season after a home loss to Georgia Southern.
After Frost was fired, he moved to Scottsdale, Arizona, where his wife has family. He reflected on what happened during his tenure with the Cornhuskers but also about what he wanted to do with the rest of his career. He tried to stay connected to the game, coaching in the U.S. Army Bowl, a high school all-star game in Frisco, Texas, in December 2022. Milton coached alongside him, and distinctly remembers a conversation they had.
“He said, ‘It’s my goal to get back to UCF one day,'” Milton said. “At that time, I was like, ‘I pray to God that happens.'”
If that was the ultimate goal, Frost needed to figure out how to position himself to get back there. While he contemplated his future, he coached his son’s flag football team to a championship. Frost found the 5- and 6-year-olds he coached “listen better than 19-year-olds sometimes.”
Ultimately, he decided on a career reboot in the NFL. Frost had visited the Rams during their offseason program, and when a job came open in summer 2024, Rams coach Sean McVay immediately reached out.
Frost was hired as a senior analyst, primarily helping with special teams but also working with offense and defense.
“It was more just getting another great leader in the building, someone who has been a head coach, that has wisdom and a wealth of experience to be able to learn from,” McVay told ESPN. “His ability to be able to communicate to our players from a great coaching perspective, but also have the empathy and the understanding from when he played — all of those things were really valuable.”
McVay said he and Frost had long discussions about handling the challenges that come with falling short as a head coach.
“There’s strength in the vulnerability,” McVay said. “I felt that from him. There’s a real power in the perspective that you have from those different experiences. If you can really look at some of the things that maybe didn’t go down the way you wanted to within the framework of your role and responsibility, real growth can occur. I saw that in him.”
Frost says his time with the Rams rejuvenated him.
“It brought me back,” Frost said. “Sometimes when you’re a head coach or maybe even a coordinator, you forget how fun it is to be around the game when it’s not all on you all the time. What I did was a very small part, and we certainly weren’t going to win or lose based on every move that I made, and I didn’t have to wear the losses and struggle for the victories like you do when you’re a head coach. I’m so grateful to those guys.”
UCF athletics director Terry Mohajir got a call from then-head coach Gus Malzahn last November. Malzahn, on the verge of finishing his fourth season at UCF, was contemplating becoming offensive coordinator at Florida State. Given all the responsibilities on his desk as head coach — from NIL to the transfer portal to roster management — he found the idea of going back to playcalling appealing. Mohajir started preparing a list of candidates and was told Thanksgiving night that Malzahn had planned to step down.
Though Frost previously worked at UCF under athletics director Danny White, he and Mohajir had a preexisting relationship. Mohajir said he reached out to Frost after he was fired at Nebraska to gauge his interest in returning to UCF as offensive coordinator under Malzahn. But Frost was not ready.
This time around, Mohajir learned quickly that Frost had interest in returning as head coach. Mohajir called McVay and Rams general manager Les Snead. They told him Frost did anything that was asked of him, including making copies around the office.
“They said, ‘You would never know he was the head coach at a major college program.” Mohajir also called former Nebraska athletic director Trev Alberts to get a better understanding about what happened with the Cornhuskers.
“Fits are a huge piece, and not everybody fits,” Mohajir said.
After eight conversations, Mohajir decided he wanted to meet Frost in person. They met at an airport hotel in Dallas.
“He was motivated,” Mohajir said. “We went from coast to coast, talked to coordinators, head coaches, pro guys, all kinds of different folks. And at the end of the day, I really believe that Scott wanted the job the most.”
The first day back in Orlando, Dec. 8, was a blur. Frost woke up at 3:45 a.m. in California to be able to make it to Florida in time for his introductory news conference with his family.
When they pulled into the campus, his first time back since he left in 2017, Frost said he was in a fog. It took another 24 hours for him and his wife, Ashley, to take a deep exhale.
“Rather than bouncing around chasing NFL jobs, we thought maybe we would be able to plant some roots here and have our kids be in a stable place for a while at a place that I really enjoyed coaching and that I think it has a chance to evolve into a place that could win a lot of football games,” Frost said. “All that together was just enough to get me to come back.”
The natural question now is whether Frost can do what he did during his first tenure.
That 2017 season stands as the only winning season of his head coaching career, but it carries so much weight with UCF fans because of its significance as both the best season in school history, and one that changed both its own future and college football.
After UCF finished 13-0, White self-declared the Knights national champions. Locked out of the four-team playoff after finishing No. 12 in the final CFP standings, White started lobbying for more attention to be paid to schools outside the power conferences.
That season also positioned UCF to pounce during the next wave of realignment. Sure enough, in 2023, the Knights began play in a Power 4 conference for the first time as Big 12 members. This past season, the CFP expanded to 12 teams. Unlike 2017, UCF now has a defined path to play for a national title and no longer has to go undefeated and then pray for a shot. Win the Big 12 championship, no matter the record, and UCF is in the playoff.
But Frost cautions those who expect the clock to turn back to 2017.
“I don’t think there’s many people out there that silly,” Frost said. “People joke about that with me, that they’re going to expect you go into undefeated in the first year. I think the fans are a little more realistic than that.”
The game, of course, is different. Had the transfer portal and NIL existed when Frost was at UCF during his first tenure, he might not have been able to keep the 2017 team together. The 2018 team, which went undefeated under Josh Heupel before losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, might not have stayed together, either.
This upcoming season, UCF will receive a full share of television revenue from the Big 12, after receiving a half share (estimated $18 million) in each of his first two seasons. While that is more than what it received in the AAC, it is less than what other Big 12 schools received, making it harder to compete immediately. It also struggled with NIL funding. As a result, in its first two years in the conference, UCF went 5-13 in Big 12 play and 10-15 overall.
Assuming the House v. NCAA settlement goes into effect this summer, Mohajir says UCF is aiming to spend the full $20.5 million, including fully funding football.
“It’s like we moved to the fancy neighborhood, and we got a job that’s going to pay us money over time, and we’re going to do well over time, but we’re stretching a little to be there right now, and that requires a lot of effort from a lot of people and a lot of commitment from a lot of people,” Frost said. “So far, the help that we’ve gotten has been impressive.”
Mohajir points out that UCF has had five coaching changes over the past 10 years, dating back to the final season under George O’Leary in 2015, when the Knights went 0-12. Frost says he wants to be in for the long term, and Mohajir hopes consistency at head coach will be an added benefit. Mohajir believes UCF is getting the best of Frost in this moment and scoffs at any questions about whether rehiring him will work again.
“Based on what I’m seeing right now, it will absolutely work,” Mohajir said. “But I don’t really look at it as ‘working again.’ It’s not ‘again.’ It’s, ‘Will it work?’ Because it’s a different era.”
To that end, Frost says success is not recreating 2017 and going undefeated. Rather, Frost said, “If our group now can help us become competitive in the Big 12, and then, from time to time, compete for championships and make us more relevant nationally, I think we’ll have done our job to help catapult UCF again.”
You could say he is looking for the same result. He’s just taking a different route there.
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