‘They are that bad’: Inside the White Sox’s road to the worst record in MLB history
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Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
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Jesse Rogers
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Jesse Rogers
ESPN Staff Writer
- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
MORE THAN 17,000 fans — and 375 dogs, attending the season’s final Dog Day promotion — descended upon Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday, there to see the Chicago White Sox set the modern-day mark for losses in a single season. One fan even printed out a hard ticket for the game.
“It’s history,” he said. “I want to have a piece of it.”
Inside the clubhouse, players have taken the ignominy in stride over the past 156 games, 120 of them losses. But knowing that this record-setting moment was coming didn’t take away the sting of its arrival.
“This isn’t the kind of attention we want,” outfielder/first baseman Gavin Sheets told what was the largest media contingent of the year, according to several players.
Six hours later — after a pregame rain delay of an hour and five minutes followed by an eighth-inning comeback against the Los Angeles Angels — the White Sox ended the night exactly where they started it: one game away from becoming the worst team in modern baseball history.
Chicago improved to 1-94 when trailing after seven innings — but celebrated the victory on the mound to boos loud enough to be heard through the stadium. The fans’ complicated feelings showed all game long, with a mix of cheers and boos when things went right for the home team and at others chanting “Sell the team!” when things went wrong.
“First comeback win being this late in the season is hard to believe,” outfielder Andrew Benintendi said after the game. “People here tonight were trying to see history. They’re going to have to wait one more day. Maybe.”
There are bad teams in every baseball season. Some of them lose 100 games, maybe more. That was the fate many expected for Chicago – even within the franchise — coming off a 101-loss 2023 season. But unless they have five more unexpected wins in them, the 2024 Chicago White Sox will soon live in baseball infamy as the worst team ever, supplanting the 1962 New York Mets who were 40-120.
“I think if you would have told me we were going to end up flirting with the record I would have been a little surprised,” general manager Chris Getz said Sept. 16. “Now if you would have told me prior to the year that we would have ended up with over 100 losses, 105, 110, I wouldn’t have been as surprised. But this is the cards that we’ve been dealt at this point.”
How does a team go from winning its division three seasons ago to creating a new standard for failure? A disaster of this magnitude must have multiple tributaries. It’s not only about the decades-long habit of owner Jerry Reinsdorf loyally clinging to employees past peak effectiveness. “Old news,” said one staffer. It’s not only about a wave of injuries; lots of teams deal with a lot of injuries. It’s not only about a first-time manager whose tenure was infected by a toxic clubhouse mix. Lots of teams have veterans who don’t get along, though the White Sox seemed to have had more than their share. It’s not only about a handful of players performing at their worst. It’s not only about a first-time general manager taking his first turn on the learning curve. It’s not necessarily about spending — in an era in which teams have slashed payroll to facilitate tanking, the White Sox’s payroll is about $145 million, ranked 18th among 30 teams.
According to more than two dozen sources inside and outside the organization, it’s all of that, together. Over the course of the season, there were missteps from every level of the organization — and just plain bad baseball — that turned the 2024 White Sox from a bad team into a historically awful one.
“There is so much randomness in our sport, and the worst teams still usually win a share of games,” said one rival executive. “But [the White Sox] have taken the randomness out of the sport. They are that bad.”
March 28
Record: 0-0
IN LATE MARCH, then-White Sox manager Pedro Grifol and Getz were trying to decide on their Opening Day starter. Two weeks earlier, the White Sox had traded ace Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres for prospects. The deal came together late because Getz was intent on getting maximum value for the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, but it left the team without time to find a replacement for their ace.
It also effectively served as a white flag on the big league season, the first in charge for the 40-year-old Getz. The new general manager turned his focus to how to build assets amid a lost year.
At the outset of spring training, Garrett Crochet was given the opportunity to do something he’s never done in the majors: work as a starting pitcher. The White Sox staff challenged him to be more efficient, to have more 15-pitch innings than 25-pitch innings, and he’s done what they’ve asked. The White Sox had no other obvious candidates for the honor of Opening Day starter, and Getz believed that if Crochet could excel as a starting pitcher, the left-hander might develop into a valuable piece of their roster — or on the trade market. He told Grifol, “F— it, let’s start Crochet.”
It was thrilling news to deliver to Crochet, a player whose confidence had wavered in the past, but it was also the first barometer reading of a serious problem: The White Sox’s pitcher in their first game of the season would be making his first career start. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only three non-expansion teams in the live ball era (since 1920) have debuted four new starters since the previous year in the first four games of a season, as the White Sox did with Crochet and journeymen Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen and Mike Soroka. The bullpen was also a problem area: the most dynamic talent, Michael Kopech, fought the yips at the end of the 2023 season, and the entire relief corps had been turned over since the previous Opening Day with veterans Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo Lopez leaving via trade or free agency in the offseason.
Crochet pitched great on Opening Day, allowing one run in six innings, but the White Sox lost 1-0 to Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. And then they kept losing — 7-6 in their second game against Detroit, 3-2 in their third. By Chicago’s fourth game, Chris Flexen was hammered in a 9-0 rout by the Atlanta Braves, and the White Sox fell to 0-4.
Meanwhile, a lineup already thin on big league talent was getting thinner. Eloy Jimenez, a top prospect acquired in 2017 and signed two years later to be a foundational piece of a previous rebuild, played three games before he was sidelined with a hamstring injury. On April 5, Luis Robert — in theory, the best player on the White Sox’s roster — suffered a hip flexor strain as he was running the bases; he’d miss the next two months. Yoan Moncada, the longest-tenured of the Chicago regulars, also suffered a hip injury. Little more than a week into the season, a third of the lineup was out, and the White Sox had won just one of their first nine games, with a run differential of minus-30.
They didn’t win a series for almost a month, a stretch that included a sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, who outscored them 27-5 in a three-game set in mid-April. Several first-year Reds, who had considered signing with the White Sox, expressed confusion about their winter decisions.
“Oof,” one Cincinnati player said. “What happened to all their pitching?”
May 26
15-38
AFTER EIGHT WINS in the first two weeks of May, a brutal stretch awaited Chicago: series against the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers.
In the third game against the Orioles, with Crochet on the mound, the White Sox lost, again, to the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish. The team was 15-39, Grifol’s second season as manager had started badly, and he was pissed off. He praised Crochet to reporters, but said the rest of the team is “f—ing flat.” The words did not land well with a clubhouse of beleaguered players — it sounded to them as if Grifol was piling on blame, rather than sharing it — and some of them pushed back when speaking with reporters. “He’s going to feel that way, and obviously we’re going to have a different feeling,” catcher Korey Lee said. “He’s entitled to his own opinion, and we are also.”
Sheets said, “I’m not sure. I think we ran into a pretty good pitcher with pretty good stuff.”
“I mean, we were trying,” one White Sox player said later. “For better or worse, that was it, right there. … I think that could have been the beginning of the end for Pedro.”
Grifol had been hired by then-GM Rick Hahn and former club president Kenny Williams early in the 2022 offseason. Hahn and Williams’ hope was that Grifol, who was from Miami and bilingual, would connect with the team’s core of Latin American players, but the hire was a gamble: Grifol had an impressive résumé as a coach, including the previous three years as the Kansas City Royals bench coach, but had never managed in the big leagues.
And he was inheriting a splintered clubhouse. Liam Hendriks, then the team’s most prominent pitching star, is distinctly an extrovert — loud, friendly, accessible to the media, chatty. Three organizational sources say a rift had grown between Hendriks and some of the other veterans on the team, namely pitchers Kendall Graveman, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly.
In December 2022, Hendriks was diagnosed with cancer. He went through treatment in the spring of 2023 before making his way back to the team. In late May, the White Sox front office planned a welcome back news conference, and the team arranged for players to be in the room as Hendriks spoke with the media for the first time — an elementary show of support. Some veterans initially balked, and according to club sources, had to be talked into attending. The situation, one longtime White Sox staffer believed, was one of the worst things he had ever witnessed in professional sports.
The rifts went beyond the pitching staff, too. Former All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson was mired in a season-long slump while dealing with personal issues off the field and catcher Yasmani Grandal was described by one former teammate as someone who “tore people down instead of building them up.”
“It was as negative a place as I’ve seen anywhere,” said another club source.
Within a week after the White Sox traded Keynan Middleton to the Yankees during the 2023 season, the reliever spoke to ESPN about the White Sox’s culture. Asked where the void exists with the team, Middleton said: “Leadership in general. They say s— rolls downhill. I feel like some guys don’t want to speak up when they should have. It’s hard to police people when there are no rules. If guys are doing things that you think are wrong, who is it wrong to? You or them? It’s anyone’s judgment at that point.”
When some White Sox staffers read the words, they were furious, because they felt Middleton’s thoughts reflected a larger problem: With an inexperienced manager overseeing the clubhouse, the culture really belonged to the players, and they shared a large measure of responsibility for the problems.
At the 2023 trade deadline, other teams — aware of the dysfunction in the White Sox’s clubhouse — passed on opportunities to take on some of the veterans because of the ugliness of some of the emanating stories. One executive said of one of the pitchers the White Sox were trying to trade: “We’ve seen that act before.”
Grifol had a complicated clubhouse on his hands; he didn’t really do complicated. Some managers are practiced schmoozers, excellent politicians; Grifol is not, according to some peers. He is a hardcore baseball guy, strong in his beliefs, and expects players to be accountable. His preference, friends believe, would have been to focus on the day-to-day work, but instead, he felt compelled to tend to a fractured clubhouse.
At least one White Sox staffer said this took up a lot of Grifol’s energy. “When you get a first-time manager like that and veteran players, they will take advantage of him,” said the staffer. “They didn’t help him.”
Early in the 2024 season, with the White Sox losing so much again, Grifol’s situation looked untenable. The team was a mess in his first year as manager, and in his second year, he was working for a general manager who didn’t hire him. “He had no chance,” one organizational source said of Grifol.
His criticism after the loss to Baltimore didn’t help. The White Sox ended May in the midst of a 14-game losing streak — one of three double-digit skids the team would endure during the season — and entrenched their record pace.
Even the healthy players were struggling horrifically. Three players who Grifol was including in his lineup daily, given their stature within the roster — Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn and Sheets — ranked among the eight least productive players in the majors, according to FanGraphs, combining for minus-1.3 fWAR this season.
“I missed having healthy players,” Grifol told ESPN this week. “It’s not an excuse — that’s just the reality. I missed having Liam Hendriks and other really good players able to perform. It wasn’t the players’ fault. They just got hurt.”
Said a former White Sox player: “When things are going good, no one says anything. When things go bad, everyone starts pointing fingers.”
June 23
21-57
IN THE SEVENTH start of his career, Jonathan Cannon took the mound against the Tigers. His previous two outings had been strong — 8⅔ scoreless innings against Houston and seven one-run innings against Seattle — but on that day, it all fell apart quickly.
The Tigers, who’d scored just five runs over their previous six games, scored five in the first inning and four in the second. Cannon was pulled in the second inning. After the game, the 2022 third-round pick was asked about his outing: “Baseball is a cruel game, and sometimes it doesn’t go your way.”
Meanwhile, in the opposite dugout sat A.J. Hinch, an enduring symbol of what could have been for the White Sox — what many feel should have been. In October 2020, Hinch was in the last days of his year-long suspension for his role in the Houston Astros‘ sign-stealing scandal — and he was the first choice of then-GM Rick Hahn to take over as the White Sox manager. Hahn viewed Hinch as an ideal candidate: He had a championship pedigree, an excellent reputation for communication, and an advanced understanding in analytics honed during his time with the progressive Astros. For Hahn, Hinch would be the guy who was going to drive the White Sox forward and help the front office define for Reinsdorf where and how the organization was behind. The White Sox were on the upswing then, with a young, talented roster and coming off a wild-card appearance in 2020: an attractive job for a managerial candidate. It seemed such a perfect fit that friends of Hinch assumed that is where he would work in 2021.
Reinsdorf, however, wasn’t interested. He felt he had fired La Russa wrongly in 1986 and bore a debt to an old friend. Above all else, Reinsdorf — who declined to speak to ESPN for this story — is consistently steadfast to friends and employees. In his time as owner of the White Sox and Chicago Bulls, he has had a lifetime of battles with owners and others, but he trusts his people. “Fact is, he might be too trusting,” said one staffer. La Russa was hired without Hinch even going through a formal interview with the White Sox.
Players complained to their agents about the 76-year-old La Russa, feeling he was out of step with a much younger generation of players. Privately, they questioned a lot of his moves. Publicly, he was second-guessed by fans and media for on-field decisions. But La Russa was in his fourth decade as a manager, bearing a stature that helped sustain a general stability, and in La Russa’s first year in 2021, the White Sox won the AL Central with a 93-69 record. “To this day [Reinsdorf] will tell people hiring La Russa was the right move, especially after seeing how the team did after he left,” said one source.
La Russa was overcome by illness in his second season. When he left the team in August, the White Sox were 63-65. Disappointing, but not disastrous. The decision was made in the final days of the 2022 season that he wouldn’t return for 2023.
By then, Hinch’s Tigers were progressing; they finished in second place in the AL Central in 2023 and this year will end with their highest win total since 2016 and, likely, a wild-card spot. The Guardians and Royals have also improved, while the Twins remain consistently competitive. The AL Central is toughening.
The White Sox franchise, however, has moved in the other direction; the organization has fallen way behind, from top to bottom. After La Russa stepped down as manager, he was kept on as a consultant — and still had the ear of ownership.
Sources said that as Reinsdorf prepared to fire Hahn in August 2023, La Russa gave positive feedback about Getz, someone he’d gotten to know as the assistant GM of the White Sox, where he had worked since 2017.
A typical industry practice is to ask permission to speak to a range of candidates from other organizations — in some cases, division rivals, in an effort to glean a greater understanding of their information systems. Sometimes subterfuge is the only real reason for the interviews. But Reinsdorf wasn’t interested in that kind of learning.
He was presented the option of interviewing candidates outside the organization, and he declined. Getz was his guy, and nobody was going to change his mind. Getz was hired nine days after Williams and Hahn were dismissed.
“Jerry’s hands are still involved in the major decision-making,” one White Sox employee said. “I mean he’s the owner but whether La Russa was the right hire or not he didn’t let his baseball people make that call. It was laughable what he said [last year] … about letting his front office make decisions. Maybe in basketball, but not baseball.”
Getz, with his years of experience in the White Sox’s offices, is experienced in working with Reinsdorf — they discuss his moves, certainly, but Getz does not feel micromanaged, even as he immediately looked to implement foundational changes within the organization. Last fall, he hired one of the most progressive pitching minds in the sport, Brian Bannister, away from the San Francisco Giants, and installed Paul Janish, the former major league shortstop and Rice head coach, to lead the team’s player development.
This year, that work continued, even as Getz prepared for the daunting month ahead of him: The MLB draft and trade deadline were weeks away.
His focus was there, to the frustration of Grifol and some of his coaches, who believed Getz was not giving the big league team enough of his attention. They wanted to hear more from him and worried that the lack of communication was a sign of how he regards them.
At the All-Star break, Grifol held a team meeting, noting the team’s trajectory, their pace to set a new record for losses. No one in the organization wants that, he said, adding that this was a chance for many of them to play and shine in the big leagues — and he encouraged them to put in the work to make that happen. The White Sox lost their next game, extending their losing streak to five. And they continued to lose.
July 25
27-77
BY JULY, IT was a fait accompli that the White Sox would become one of the most prominent sellers before the July 30 trade deadline. There was no gradual rollout for Getz in his first summer. Instead, he had to consider dozens of possible trade combinations in a truncated timeline, and some of his peers with other teams wondered if he was ready, especially after some of his first trades.
The previous fall, he had traded Bummer, a coveted left-handed reliever, to the Braves for five players. The return stunned some rival evaluators, because they believed some of the players in the deal likely would’ve been non-tendered by the Braves. In truth, Getz was fully aware of the non-tender possibility — because Braves exec Alex Anthopoulos had told him so — and wanted the deal anyway, to ensure the arrival of Mike Soroka in the much-depleted rotation.
In the midst of the 2024 season, Getz and his staff had some of the best options in a depleted trade market: Erick Fedde, whom Getz signed to a savvy deal in the offseason after a year in Korea; Kopech, who struggled in the closer role but had 59 strikeouts in 43⅔ innings; and, most notably, Crochet, who had blossomed into a dominant starter. Getz was in constant communication with other teams, but he made the decision early: If no team met their asks, they’d keep the left-hander.
Five days before the deadline, Getz was eating breakfast when he got texts from a team asking him about tweets just posted that suggested Crochet would only pitch in the postseason if he got a contract extension — something Getz had not heard before from the player or his agent, Andrew Nacario.
The timing of the breaking news was awful — not because it affected interest, but because with little more than 100 hours remaining before the trade deadline, Getz knew front offices would try to use the contract situation as leverage to diminish the asking price. But contending teams kept making offers — the Dodgers, Phillies and Braves at the forefront. “The sincere teams remained sincere,” said one White Sox source, “and the teams that weren’t sincere — they were out.” Said a rival executive: “I don’t think [the contract demand] affected his value.”
The White Sox believed that the Dodgers had enough to make a deal without top catching prospect Dalton Rushing included, but that offer from L.A. never developed. The Phillies turned down the White Sox’s request for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter as part of the package. The Braves had lots of pitching to offer, but the White Sox preferred a deal for position players.
In the end, Getz traded a chunk of his roster: Fedde, Kopech and Tommy Pham as part of a three-team trade with the Cardinals and Dodgers, and shortstop Paul DeJong to the Royals. Getz decided he would keep Crochet for the rest of the regular season and into the winter. He called Reinsdorf to tell him, and Reinsdorf was nonplussed in his response.
In some other front offices, Getz’s choices were panned. Some evaluators believed he didn’t get enough in the Fedde-Kopech-Pham trade; others questioned how he could’ve let the moment pass without dealing Crochet. He had the best available starting pitcher in the trade market, with big-market teams interested, and critics believed Getz should have flipped Crochet for building-block prospects. They wondered what kind of counsel he was getting from Reinsdorf, and others. “Somebody needed to tell him, ‘Look, this is the time when you have to trade him,'” said a longtime front office type who has worked through many deadlines.
Some rival evaluators disagree with the criticism, and so do the White Sox. Getz thinks Crochet will have at least the same trade value this winter, when teams in need of an ace will have more time to weigh the choice between paying big dollars for free agents like Blake Snell or dealing prospects for Crochet. And now teams know for sure that Crochet can handle a starter’s workload over a full season.
Hours after the White Sox made the decision to hold Crochet, they lost their 16th straight game.
Aug. 8
28-88
AS SOON AS the trade deadline passed, Getz wanted to move on from his manager, according to sources familiar with his thinking. It was not a matter of if, but when. But with rumors swirling about Grifol’s immediate future, a meeting took place on July 31 between Reinsdorf, Getz, Grifol and La Russa. And then, for a week, in one of the stranger twists of the season, nothing happened.
On Aug. 6, a losing streak that began before the All-Star break finally ended, at an American League record 21 games, with a win over Oakland. “It was just really good to get this behind us. I thought we played a clean game today,” Grifol told reporters. “Any time you win it’s great. Any time you win when you lose 21 in a row it’s even better. I’m proud of these guys.”
Two days later, Getz called Grifol to tell him he was making a change. Third base coach Eddie Rodriguez, assistant hitting coach Mike Tosar and bench coach Charlie Montoyo — all of the White Sox’s Latino staffers — were also fired. Grifol is a lifelong friend of Tosar and knew Rodriguez from their days together in the Royals’ organization. Getz thought that while Montoyo held the title of bench coach, Grifol was mostly leaning on Rodriguez and Tosar.
Getz believed that to get the White Sox to a better place, these were the right staff moves to make in early August. But he knew the optics of the choices were less than ideal. Getz called Michael Hill, MLB’s senior vice president for on-field operations, to provide background for the decision. The league monitors the diversity of MLB coaching staffs and is expected to do so on the White Sox’s next hires.
The front office promoted first-year coach Grady Sizemore to interim manager, essentially taking on-the-field decisions out of the dugout and into the executive suite. Sizemore had expressed no desire to manage but was picked because players like him. Getz stated that he’d look outside the White Sox family for a permanent replacement, squashing any talk of a reunion with Ozzie Guillen, who provides television commentary on games, or popular former catcher A.J. Pierzynski.
A month later, with the White Sox closing in on the all-time record for losses, the typically reticent Reinsdorf issued a statement. “Going back to last year, we have made difficult decisions and changes to begin building a foundation for future success,” he said. “What has impressed me is how our players and staff have continued to work and bring a professional attitude to the ballpark each day despite a historically difficult season. No one is happy with the results, but I commend the continued effort.”
Weeks after Pham was traded, he reflected on his time as a White Sox. The 1962 Mets had players like Pham — established veterans near the end of their days as active players, scu as Gil Hodges and Don Zimmer, who became witnesses to history.
“Everything compounded on the White Sox this season with injuries and rebuilding,” Pham said. “Guys are being allowed to develop in the big leagues and that’s never been done. Ten years ago you weren’t allowed to develop in the big leagues.
“I think the White Sox problem isn’t just a White Sox problem. I think it’s a universal problem going on in MLB. We have teams that are developing players in the big leagues. We’ve never seen that. Add all the injuries and the Sox are where they are.”
Sept. 24
36-120
BY MID-SEPTEMBER, IT seemed a matter of when, not if, the White Sox would break the Mets’ record. A long road trip to the West Coast garnered a 3-6 record, and the White Sox returned home with 120 losses.
Much of Tuesday’s game played out like so many of the defeats that came before it. The White Sox hitters failed to score for the game’s first seven innings. The bullpen finally wilted, and the Angels took the lead, with “Sell the team!” chants raining down from the stands.
“I get the frustration,” Sizemore said. “They want to see wins and they want to see them now.”
Though Chicago’s rally then postponed the seemingly inevitable, there are five more games in the season; the White Sox could climb to as many as 125 losses. Their path from here is unclear — because of new collective bargaining rules, the White Sox can’t receive a draft lottery pick; even after the worst season in history, they’ll pick no higher than 10th in next year’s draft. There is no quick path back to respectability for a team in the third-largest market in MLB. Fans booing might be the norm for the foreseeable future.
Still, Getz and his staff are looking ahead: refining a process through which they will hire the next manager, among a wide-ranging field of candidates from around the industry. As he did with lengthy processes to hire Bannister and Janish, Getz’s goal is to objectively pick the person who best fits the White Sox and what they need moving forward. This week, Getz made another important hire, tapping longtime scout David Keller — who spent many years with the Mets — to oversee their international department.
In mid-September, Getz watched a recent interview of UConn basketball coach Dan Hurley, about a tense meeting with his predecessor, Jim Calhoun. Early in Hurley’s tenure, he had complained to Calhoun about work impediments; Calhoun tells Hurley to stop whining and do the job. Getz relates to this. And as the White Sox disaster reaches its conclusion, Getz feels … energized. The challenge — the opportunity — is now as immense as the failure.
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Bill Connelly
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.
The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.
All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
More:
Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Hot seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.
Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.
He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.
First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.
Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.
Current line: LSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.
The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Current line: Hokies -7.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.
If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.
Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.
And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.
Current line: Dawgs -7 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.
For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.
Current line: Clemson -9.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.
1:05
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.
We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Current line: SC -5.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.
They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.
Current line: ASU -14.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic
We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2 and in danger of going 0-2 in conference play. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.
The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?
It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.
Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he’s evidently 50-50 to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.
Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.
Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.
Current line: Bama -22.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic
The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.
Current line: Pitt -2 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.
Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.
Current line: Rebels -9.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic
If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?
Current line: Miami -15.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.
Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)
Current line: Ducks -27.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.
Current line: OU -24.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)
Current line: Memphis -6.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.
Current line: Mizzou -24.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?
Current line: USC -21.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?
Current line: Tech -24.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.
Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?
Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday evening
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.
Current line: Buckeyes -25.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.
Current line: Utah -22.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.
Current line: Tulane -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.
Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
With conference play set to open across the country in Week 3, we’re about to get a much firmer grasp on the 2025 college football landscape. Among other things, this weekend will deliver fresh windows into first-year quarterbacks at Georgia and Tennessee when the Bulldogs travel to Neyland Stadium. Elsewhere in the SEC, Florida visits No. 3 LSU with the pair of SEC rivals respectively shouldering very different but equally hefty stakes. Meanwhile, some of college football’s most surprising early-season storylines will continue to play out Saturday with No. 18 South Florida leading the charge as the surging Bulls venture south to No. 5 Miami.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups in this weekend’s pair of high-profile SEC clashes, the programs that have surprised us so far and the top quotes of the past seven days entering Week 3. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Tennessee | Florida-LSU
Teams that have surprised us | Quotes of the Week
What will Georgia and Tennessee need from their new starting QBs?
Georgia: Quarterback Gunner Stockton gets his first SEC road test at Tennessee on Saturday, and the Bulldogs will be looking for him to deliver more in the downfield passing game. Stockton played OK in Georgia’s first two wins over Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay, completing 69% of his pass attempts for 417 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for two scores against the Thundering Herd. His legs weren’t much of a factor in last week’s closer-than-expected win against the Governors. Stockton has taken care of the football and hasn’t put the defense in bad situations, but Georgia needs more explosive plays on offense. He has attempted only 10 passes beyond 10 yards. Georgia went into the transfer portal to get USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, and Colbie Young is back after sitting out most of the 2024 season because of a suspension. Those playmakers have to be more involved on offense, along with tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. If Georgia is going to beat Tennessee for the ninth straight time, Stockton has to be more comfortable letting the ball fly, especially against a secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL) and Rickey Gibson III (arm) because of injuries.
Tennessee: The Volunteers couldn’t have asked for much more from transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar in their first two victories against Syracuse and FCS program East Tennessee State. The former App State starter completed 66.1% of his attempts for 535 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw a 73-yard touchdown to Braylon Staley against the Orange and a 53-yarder to Mike Matthews against the Buccaneers. He might have to do even more against Georgia’s defense, which brings back promising safety KJ Bolden and cornerback Daylen Everette, a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Bulldogs are going to try to stifle Tennessee’s running game and get after Aguilar in the pocket. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have had UT coach Josh Heupel’s number in recent seasons. The Bulldogs haven’t given up explosive plays, a trademark of Heupel’s system. In each of the past three losses to Georgia, the Volunteers’ high-flying offense failed to throw for 200 yards and didn’t have a passing touchdown. — Mark Schlabach
What do Florida and LSU need to capitalize on to win?
Florida: Aside from avoiding penalties, including spitting on a player? The Gators have to play with the emotion and intensity that comes with knowing their season is hanging in the balance after a shocking 18-16 loss to USF. They can do that by setting the tone on defense, which played well for stretches against the Bulls but then gave up 87 yards on eight plays on the final drive. LSU has struggled to run the ball through two games, and frustrations boiled over after a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, in which the Tigers averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In their win over LSU last year, Florida held the Tigers to 2.9 yards per carry. The good news for Florida is it won’t be facing a dual-threat quarterback like Byrum Brown. So if the Gators can limit the LSU backs, they will give themselves a shot. — Andrea Adelson
LSU: The Gators might be more desperate, but the Tigers should be plenty motivated after what happened in Gainesville last fall. LSU’s defense looks like the better of the two units and must cause more distress for DJ Lagway, who averaged 17.4 yards per completion in the 2024 win. The Tigers hurried Lagway nine times but never sacked him. They also let down in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns allowed. LSU’s upgrades on defense and playing at home, where coach Brian Kelly implored that the crowd needs to “live up to our résumé as the toughest place to play in the country,” must become outcome-swinging factors. Garrett Nussmeier is still the superior quarterback, and if LSU can get Caden Durham going — he had 95 rushing yards against Florida last season — the Tigers should prevail. — Adam Rittenberg
Five teams that have surprised us so far
South Florida: It would have been very easy to look at South Florida’s first two games of the season and have both of them — against Boise State and Florida — earmarked as likely losses. Instead, the Bulls went out and started 2-0, making a surprising early case as the best Group of 5 team. The win against Boise State was particularly impressive because of how lopsided it was (34-7). Boise State looked nothing like the team that reached the playoff last season (losing running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, played a significant role in that).
UCLA: After the Bruins finished the 2024 season winning four of their final six games, they brought in transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the offseason. It was reasonable to be optimistic about the direction of the football program. Two games later, UCLA looks like an underdog in all nine of the Big Ten games on its schedule. The Bruins weren’t remotely competitive in their 43-10 loss to Utah, then fell behind 23-0 to UNLV before making it look more respectable in a 30-23 loss last week. Now, UCLA will have to brace for another season of playing in a more than half-empty Rose Bowl.
Kansas State: The only thing between the Wildcats and an 0-3 start, is a last-minute touchdown against FCS North Dakota. Their three-point losses to Iowa State and Army aren’t the end of the world, but this team was expected to compete for the Big 12 title (and still could, to be fair) and hasn’t yet looked the part. Against Army, quarterback Avery Johnson was limited to 172 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. That’s not a formula with which K-State can win.
Florida State: The roller coaster in Tallahassee has been a wild ride. In no other era of college football does it seem plausible for a team to win 19 games in a row, then lose 11 of 13 and then immediately jump back into the top 10. And yet this is the life the Seminoles have lived over the past few seasons. FSU was expected to be better this season, but its convincing win against Alabama in Week 1 might have been the most surprising result of the young season.
Mississippi State: After finishing 2-10 last season with a winless SEC campaign, the Bulldogs didn’t have much momentum. But after an upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State, perhaps this is a team that could be bowling at the end of the season. With games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois the next two weeks, a 4-0 start seems likely before the gauntlet of conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“According to who? Arch said that to you?” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian responded to a question this week as speculation swirled over the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom, so I don’t know what faces you make when you’re doing that.”
“Who has one of those? What does that look like? What does a solidified quarterback look like? What does that look like? I want to know. We play quarterbacks every week. What does a solidified quarterback look like?” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said when asked if he had concerns around the absence of a “solidified quarterback” with third-string quarterback Ryan Staub expected to start ahead of veteran Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis in Week 3. “That could mean something’s up with your roster if it’s clear,” Sanders continued. “Then [when] that clear guy goes down, what’s up with the second one? I like where we are, man. I like what we have. I like what we’re playing with. I like these dice I’m shaking.”
“Just wanted to see if we could,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of the Tigers’ illegal free kick against Kansas in Week 2 that prompted the Big 12 to suspend the responsible officiating crew on Tuesday. “You know, it’s like asking your parents if you can do something that you know they probably shouldn’t let you do. But sometimes they get it wrong.”
“I love Darian to death,” Tulane coach Jon Sumrall said of Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah ahead of the Blue Devils’ Week 3 visit to Tulane. “I’ve said this publicly: if you play one snap, 100 snaps, 1,000 snaps for me, I’ll love you for the rest of my life. I care about him, wish him well, saw him this summer — I’ve got nothing but love for Darian.”
“I’ve talked to many that believe across the country this is the progress we need to make,” LSU’s Brian Kelly said of Ohio State Buckeyes coach Ryan Day’s response to proposed transfer portal changes. “I want to get my roster set. Now, I know there’s probably 12 or 16 teams that might be in the playoffs at that time. I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht. I mean, we got to get this thing set and its best position at this time to allow us to set our rosters moving forward.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.
I’ve circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week’s card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football’s version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we’re still figuring out who’s the real deal and who’s just catfishing us.
No spoilers yet, but let’s just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I’m betting the market hasn’t caught up.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5
The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we’ve seen on the field. It’s early. I know. However, I have doubts.
Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That’s like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.
The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don’t need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that’s Georgia Tech.
Through two games, GT’s rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with four different players already ripping off runs of 27 yards or longer, including quarterback Haynes King.
That rushing strength will be tested, and King’s injury status is something to keep an eye on, but he is expected to play. He’s a quarterback who forces you to defend every blade of grass.
I look back to late last season and think of this as it déjà vu for Clemson’s defense. They saw this exact movie last season with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (166 rushing yards). King has a very similar skill set, except GT’s overall offense is more explosive.
Grab the points. The Yellow Jackets have the sting to pull off the upset.
Bet to make: Oregon -27.5 and Northwestern UNDER 10.5
Oregon is beating up on opponents they’re supposed to, winning by a combined score of 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. The offense has been balanced and explosive, led by Dante Moore‘s efficiency and a backfield that’s averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Now they face a Northwestern defense ranked 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, the same group Tulane gashed for 269 rushing yards in Week 1. This sets up as a trench mismatch, and Oregon has the speed and depth to exploit it.
Northwestern’s secondary is solid, but that was against Western Illinois, and even still, Oregon’s run game is the hammer and Northwestern’s front is the nail. The Ducks also are second in yards gained, meaning they are finishing drives at an elite rate. This is one of those matchups where Oregon can control the script, lean on their ground game and force Northwestern to play catch-up with an offense that lacks any weapons to contend.
Betting against this Oregon offense right now (against soft opponents) feels risky. Now, both of the Ducks games were at home, but I see this unit translating on the road, too, in the right context. I’m not at all ready to call them championship ready, but beating up on the little guys? Yes.
Also worth considering: Northwestern team total UNDER 9.5 points (+105)
Oregon’s defense has allowed only two red zone trips. The Wildcats are averaging only 4.5 yards per pass with five turnovers in two games. Oregon’s defense isn’t flashy, but it forces long drives and eliminates explosive plays, allowing just three gains of 20+ yards so far.
Northwestern will need to string together 10-play drives against a top defense that collapses early downs and limits red-zone access. The Ducks might clip the Wildcats’ whiskers and leave Evanston with a shutout.
Bet to make: New Mexico +15.5
We need to stop pretending UCLA has shown us anything that warrants laying more than two touchdowns.
UCLA’s defense has been a problem, giving up a third-down conversion rate of 70%, fourth worst in the country. That means opponents stay on the field, bleed clock and keep games close.
New Mexico is 130th in rushing yards, but that raw number doesn’t tell the whole story when you look at context. Week 1 was at Michigan, one of the best defensive fronts in the country and Scottre Humphrey had just 10 carries for 33 yards which tanked their early rushing stats.
But in Week 2 against Idaho State, we finally saw the real picture: 18 carries, 141 yards, 7.8 YPC and a 61-yard burst, which is not atypical for Humphrey. In fact, he had nine 100-yard rushing games last year.
So is it enough to buy into New Mexico’s ground game here? Against UCLA, yes. UCLA’s run defense is dead last in success rate allowed and just got gashed for 286 rushing yards by Utah and 148 more by UNLV.
This matchup actually tilts toward Humphrey being a real factor again.
The key is game script. If UCLA jumps ahead by multiple scores early, Humphrey gets neutralized, forcing Jack Layne into obvious passing downs, which is not their strength. But if New Mexico can stay within one score into the second half, Humphrey is the player who keeps them competitive.
This isn’t a volume stat issue, it’s a matchup issue, and against UCLA the door is open. Continue fading the Bruins.
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