‘They are that bad’: Inside the White Sox’s road to the worst record in MLB history
-
Buster Olney
Close
Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
-
Jesse Rogers
Close
Jesse Rogers
ESPN Staff Writer
- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
MORE THAN 17,000 fans — and 375 dogs, attending the season’s final Dog Day promotion — descended upon Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday, there to see the Chicago White Sox set the modern-day mark for losses in a single season. One fan even printed out a hard ticket for the game.
“It’s history,” he said. “I want to have a piece of it.”
Inside the clubhouse, players have taken the ignominy in stride over the past 156 games, 120 of them losses. But knowing that this record-setting moment was coming didn’t take away the sting of its arrival.
“This isn’t the kind of attention we want,” outfielder/first baseman Gavin Sheets told what was the largest media contingent of the year, according to several players.
Six hours later — after a pregame rain delay of an hour and five minutes followed by an eighth-inning comeback against the Los Angeles Angels — the White Sox ended the night exactly where they started it: one game away from becoming the worst team in modern baseball history.
Chicago improved to 1-94 when trailing after seven innings — but celebrated the victory on the mound to boos loud enough to be heard through the stadium. The fans’ complicated feelings showed all game long, with a mix of cheers and boos when things went right for the home team and at others chanting “Sell the team!” when things went wrong.
“First comeback win being this late in the season is hard to believe,” outfielder Andrew Benintendi said after the game. “People here tonight were trying to see history. They’re going to have to wait one more day. Maybe.”
There are bad teams in every baseball season. Some of them lose 100 games, maybe more. That was the fate many expected for Chicago – even within the franchise — coming off a 101-loss 2023 season. But unless they have five more unexpected wins in them, the 2024 Chicago White Sox will soon live in baseball infamy as the worst team ever, supplanting the 1962 New York Mets who were 40-120.
“I think if you would have told me we were going to end up flirting with the record I would have been a little surprised,” general manager Chris Getz said Sept. 16. “Now if you would have told me prior to the year that we would have ended up with over 100 losses, 105, 110, I wouldn’t have been as surprised. But this is the cards that we’ve been dealt at this point.”
How does a team go from winning its division three seasons ago to creating a new standard for failure? A disaster of this magnitude must have multiple tributaries. It’s not only about the decades-long habit of owner Jerry Reinsdorf loyally clinging to employees past peak effectiveness. “Old news,” said one staffer. It’s not only about a wave of injuries; lots of teams deal with a lot of injuries. It’s not only about a first-time manager whose tenure was infected by a toxic clubhouse mix. Lots of teams have veterans who don’t get along, though the White Sox seemed to have had more than their share. It’s not only about a handful of players performing at their worst. It’s not only about a first-time general manager taking his first turn on the learning curve. It’s not necessarily about spending — in an era in which teams have slashed payroll to facilitate tanking, the White Sox’s payroll is about $145 million, ranked 18th among 30 teams.
According to more than two dozen sources inside and outside the organization, it’s all of that, together. Over the course of the season, there were missteps from every level of the organization — and just plain bad baseball — that turned the 2024 White Sox from a bad team into a historically awful one.
“There is so much randomness in our sport, and the worst teams still usually win a share of games,” said one rival executive. “But [the White Sox] have taken the randomness out of the sport. They are that bad.”
March 28
Record: 0-0
IN LATE MARCH, then-White Sox manager Pedro Grifol and Getz were trying to decide on their Opening Day starter. Two weeks earlier, the White Sox had traded ace Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres for prospects. The deal came together late because Getz was intent on getting maximum value for the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, but it left the team without time to find a replacement for their ace.
It also effectively served as a white flag on the big league season, the first in charge for the 40-year-old Getz. The new general manager turned his focus to how to build assets amid a lost year.
At the outset of spring training, Garrett Crochet was given the opportunity to do something he’s never done in the majors: work as a starting pitcher. The White Sox staff challenged him to be more efficient, to have more 15-pitch innings than 25-pitch innings, and he’s done what they’ve asked. The White Sox had no other obvious candidates for the honor of Opening Day starter, and Getz believed that if Crochet could excel as a starting pitcher, the left-hander might develop into a valuable piece of their roster — or on the trade market. He told Grifol, “F— it, let’s start Crochet.”
It was thrilling news to deliver to Crochet, a player whose confidence had wavered in the past, but it was also the first barometer reading of a serious problem: The White Sox’s pitcher in their first game of the season would be making his first career start. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only three non-expansion teams in the live ball era (since 1920) have debuted four new starters since the previous year in the first four games of a season, as the White Sox did with Crochet and journeymen Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen and Mike Soroka. The bullpen was also a problem area: the most dynamic talent, Michael Kopech, fought the yips at the end of the 2023 season, and the entire relief corps had been turned over since the previous Opening Day with veterans Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo Lopez leaving via trade or free agency in the offseason.
Crochet pitched great on Opening Day, allowing one run in six innings, but the White Sox lost 1-0 to Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. And then they kept losing — 7-6 in their second game against Detroit, 3-2 in their third. By Chicago’s fourth game, Chris Flexen was hammered in a 9-0 rout by the Atlanta Braves, and the White Sox fell to 0-4.
Meanwhile, a lineup already thin on big league talent was getting thinner. Eloy Jimenez, a top prospect acquired in 2017 and signed two years later to be a foundational piece of a previous rebuild, played three games before he was sidelined with a hamstring injury. On April 5, Luis Robert — in theory, the best player on the White Sox’s roster — suffered a hip flexor strain as he was running the bases; he’d miss the next two months. Yoan Moncada, the longest-tenured of the Chicago regulars, also suffered a hip injury. Little more than a week into the season, a third of the lineup was out, and the White Sox had won just one of their first nine games, with a run differential of minus-30.
They didn’t win a series for almost a month, a stretch that included a sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, who outscored them 27-5 in a three-game set in mid-April. Several first-year Reds, who had considered signing with the White Sox, expressed confusion about their winter decisions.
“Oof,” one Cincinnati player said. “What happened to all their pitching?”
May 26
15-38
AFTER EIGHT WINS in the first two weeks of May, a brutal stretch awaited Chicago: series against the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers.
In the third game against the Orioles, with Crochet on the mound, the White Sox lost, again, to the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish. The team was 15-39, Grifol’s second season as manager had started badly, and he was pissed off. He praised Crochet to reporters, but said the rest of the team is “f—ing flat.” The words did not land well with a clubhouse of beleaguered players — it sounded to them as if Grifol was piling on blame, rather than sharing it — and some of them pushed back when speaking with reporters. “He’s going to feel that way, and obviously we’re going to have a different feeling,” catcher Korey Lee said. “He’s entitled to his own opinion, and we are also.”
Sheets said, “I’m not sure. I think we ran into a pretty good pitcher with pretty good stuff.”
“I mean, we were trying,” one White Sox player said later. “For better or worse, that was it, right there. … I think that could have been the beginning of the end for Pedro.”
Grifol had been hired by then-GM Rick Hahn and former club president Kenny Williams early in the 2022 offseason. Hahn and Williams’ hope was that Grifol, who was from Miami and bilingual, would connect with the team’s core of Latin American players, but the hire was a gamble: Grifol had an impressive résumé as a coach, including the previous three years as the Kansas City Royals bench coach, but had never managed in the big leagues.
And he was inheriting a splintered clubhouse. Liam Hendriks, then the team’s most prominent pitching star, is distinctly an extrovert — loud, friendly, accessible to the media, chatty. Three organizational sources say a rift had grown between Hendriks and some of the other veterans on the team, namely pitchers Kendall Graveman, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly.
In December 2022, Hendriks was diagnosed with cancer. He went through treatment in the spring of 2023 before making his way back to the team. In late May, the White Sox front office planned a welcome back news conference, and the team arranged for players to be in the room as Hendriks spoke with the media for the first time — an elementary show of support. Some veterans initially balked, and according to club sources, had to be talked into attending. The situation, one longtime White Sox staffer believed, was one of the worst things he had ever witnessed in professional sports.
The rifts went beyond the pitching staff, too. Former All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson was mired in a season-long slump while dealing with personal issues off the field and catcher Yasmani Grandal was described by one former teammate as someone who “tore people down instead of building them up.”
“It was as negative a place as I’ve seen anywhere,” said another club source.
Within a week after the White Sox traded Keynan Middleton to the Yankees during the 2023 season, the reliever spoke to ESPN about the White Sox’s culture. Asked where the void exists with the team, Middleton said: “Leadership in general. They say s— rolls downhill. I feel like some guys don’t want to speak up when they should have. It’s hard to police people when there are no rules. If guys are doing things that you think are wrong, who is it wrong to? You or them? It’s anyone’s judgment at that point.”
When some White Sox staffers read the words, they were furious, because they felt Middleton’s thoughts reflected a larger problem: With an inexperienced manager overseeing the clubhouse, the culture really belonged to the players, and they shared a large measure of responsibility for the problems.
At the 2023 trade deadline, other teams — aware of the dysfunction in the White Sox’s clubhouse — passed on opportunities to take on some of the veterans because of the ugliness of some of the emanating stories. One executive said of one of the pitchers the White Sox were trying to trade: “We’ve seen that act before.”
Grifol had a complicated clubhouse on his hands; he didn’t really do complicated. Some managers are practiced schmoozers, excellent politicians; Grifol is not, according to some peers. He is a hardcore baseball guy, strong in his beliefs, and expects players to be accountable. His preference, friends believe, would have been to focus on the day-to-day work, but instead, he felt compelled to tend to a fractured clubhouse.
At least one White Sox staffer said this took up a lot of Grifol’s energy. “When you get a first-time manager like that and veteran players, they will take advantage of him,” said the staffer. “They didn’t help him.”
Early in the 2024 season, with the White Sox losing so much again, Grifol’s situation looked untenable. The team was a mess in his first year as manager, and in his second year, he was working for a general manager who didn’t hire him. “He had no chance,” one organizational source said of Grifol.
His criticism after the loss to Baltimore didn’t help. The White Sox ended May in the midst of a 14-game losing streak — one of three double-digit skids the team would endure during the season — and entrenched their record pace.
Even the healthy players were struggling horrifically. Three players who Grifol was including in his lineup daily, given their stature within the roster — Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn and Sheets — ranked among the eight least productive players in the majors, according to FanGraphs, combining for minus-1.3 fWAR this season.
“I missed having healthy players,” Grifol told ESPN this week. “It’s not an excuse — that’s just the reality. I missed having Liam Hendriks and other really good players able to perform. It wasn’t the players’ fault. They just got hurt.”
Said a former White Sox player: “When things are going good, no one says anything. When things go bad, everyone starts pointing fingers.”
June 23
21-57
IN THE SEVENTH start of his career, Jonathan Cannon took the mound against the Tigers. His previous two outings had been strong — 8⅔ scoreless innings against Houston and seven one-run innings against Seattle — but on that day, it all fell apart quickly.
The Tigers, who’d scored just five runs over their previous six games, scored five in the first inning and four in the second. Cannon was pulled in the second inning. After the game, the 2022 third-round pick was asked about his outing: “Baseball is a cruel game, and sometimes it doesn’t go your way.”
Meanwhile, in the opposite dugout sat A.J. Hinch, an enduring symbol of what could have been for the White Sox — what many feel should have been. In October 2020, Hinch was in the last days of his year-long suspension for his role in the Houston Astros‘ sign-stealing scandal — and he was the first choice of then-GM Rick Hahn to take over as the White Sox manager. Hahn viewed Hinch as an ideal candidate: He had a championship pedigree, an excellent reputation for communication, and an advanced understanding in analytics honed during his time with the progressive Astros. For Hahn, Hinch would be the guy who was going to drive the White Sox forward and help the front office define for Reinsdorf where and how the organization was behind. The White Sox were on the upswing then, with a young, talented roster and coming off a wild-card appearance in 2020: an attractive job for a managerial candidate. It seemed such a perfect fit that friends of Hinch assumed that is where he would work in 2021.
Reinsdorf, however, wasn’t interested. He felt he had fired La Russa wrongly in 1986 and bore a debt to an old friend. Above all else, Reinsdorf — who declined to speak to ESPN for this story — is consistently steadfast to friends and employees. In his time as owner of the White Sox and Chicago Bulls, he has had a lifetime of battles with owners and others, but he trusts his people. “Fact is, he might be too trusting,” said one staffer. La Russa was hired without Hinch even going through a formal interview with the White Sox.
Players complained to their agents about the 76-year-old La Russa, feeling he was out of step with a much younger generation of players. Privately, they questioned a lot of his moves. Publicly, he was second-guessed by fans and media for on-field decisions. But La Russa was in his fourth decade as a manager, bearing a stature that helped sustain a general stability, and in La Russa’s first year in 2021, the White Sox won the AL Central with a 93-69 record. “To this day [Reinsdorf] will tell people hiring La Russa was the right move, especially after seeing how the team did after he left,” said one source.
La Russa was overcome by illness in his second season. When he left the team in August, the White Sox were 63-65. Disappointing, but not disastrous. The decision was made in the final days of the 2022 season that he wouldn’t return for 2023.
By then, Hinch’s Tigers were progressing; they finished in second place in the AL Central in 2023 and this year will end with their highest win total since 2016 and, likely, a wild-card spot. The Guardians and Royals have also improved, while the Twins remain consistently competitive. The AL Central is toughening.
The White Sox franchise, however, has moved in the other direction; the organization has fallen way behind, from top to bottom. After La Russa stepped down as manager, he was kept on as a consultant — and still had the ear of ownership.
Sources said that as Reinsdorf prepared to fire Hahn in August 2023, La Russa gave positive feedback about Getz, someone he’d gotten to know as the assistant GM of the White Sox, where he had worked since 2017.
A typical industry practice is to ask permission to speak to a range of candidates from other organizations — in some cases, division rivals, in an effort to glean a greater understanding of their information systems. Sometimes subterfuge is the only real reason for the interviews. But Reinsdorf wasn’t interested in that kind of learning.
He was presented the option of interviewing candidates outside the organization, and he declined. Getz was his guy, and nobody was going to change his mind. Getz was hired nine days after Williams and Hahn were dismissed.
“Jerry’s hands are still involved in the major decision-making,” one White Sox employee said. “I mean he’s the owner but whether La Russa was the right hire or not he didn’t let his baseball people make that call. It was laughable what he said [last year] … about letting his front office make decisions. Maybe in basketball, but not baseball.”
Getz, with his years of experience in the White Sox’s offices, is experienced in working with Reinsdorf — they discuss his moves, certainly, but Getz does not feel micromanaged, even as he immediately looked to implement foundational changes within the organization. Last fall, he hired one of the most progressive pitching minds in the sport, Brian Bannister, away from the San Francisco Giants, and installed Paul Janish, the former major league shortstop and Rice head coach, to lead the team’s player development.
This year, that work continued, even as Getz prepared for the daunting month ahead of him: The MLB draft and trade deadline were weeks away.
His focus was there, to the frustration of Grifol and some of his coaches, who believed Getz was not giving the big league team enough of his attention. They wanted to hear more from him and worried that the lack of communication was a sign of how he regards them.
At the All-Star break, Grifol held a team meeting, noting the team’s trajectory, their pace to set a new record for losses. No one in the organization wants that, he said, adding that this was a chance for many of them to play and shine in the big leagues — and he encouraged them to put in the work to make that happen. The White Sox lost their next game, extending their losing streak to five. And they continued to lose.
July 25
27-77
BY JULY, IT was a fait accompli that the White Sox would become one of the most prominent sellers before the July 30 trade deadline. There was no gradual rollout for Getz in his first summer. Instead, he had to consider dozens of possible trade combinations in a truncated timeline, and some of his peers with other teams wondered if he was ready, especially after some of his first trades.
The previous fall, he had traded Bummer, a coveted left-handed reliever, to the Braves for five players. The return stunned some rival evaluators, because they believed some of the players in the deal likely would’ve been non-tendered by the Braves. In truth, Getz was fully aware of the non-tender possibility — because Braves exec Alex Anthopoulos had told him so — and wanted the deal anyway, to ensure the arrival of Mike Soroka in the much-depleted rotation.
In the midst of the 2024 season, Getz and his staff had some of the best options in a depleted trade market: Erick Fedde, whom Getz signed to a savvy deal in the offseason after a year in Korea; Kopech, who struggled in the closer role but had 59 strikeouts in 43⅔ innings; and, most notably, Crochet, who had blossomed into a dominant starter. Getz was in constant communication with other teams, but he made the decision early: If no team met their asks, they’d keep the left-hander.
Five days before the deadline, Getz was eating breakfast when he got texts from a team asking him about tweets just posted that suggested Crochet would only pitch in the postseason if he got a contract extension — something Getz had not heard before from the player or his agent, Andrew Nacario.
The timing of the breaking news was awful — not because it affected interest, but because with little more than 100 hours remaining before the trade deadline, Getz knew front offices would try to use the contract situation as leverage to diminish the asking price. But contending teams kept making offers — the Dodgers, Phillies and Braves at the forefront. “The sincere teams remained sincere,” said one White Sox source, “and the teams that weren’t sincere — they were out.” Said a rival executive: “I don’t think [the contract demand] affected his value.”
The White Sox believed that the Dodgers had enough to make a deal without top catching prospect Dalton Rushing included, but that offer from L.A. never developed. The Phillies turned down the White Sox’s request for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter as part of the package. The Braves had lots of pitching to offer, but the White Sox preferred a deal for position players.
In the end, Getz traded a chunk of his roster: Fedde, Kopech and Tommy Pham as part of a three-team trade with the Cardinals and Dodgers, and shortstop Paul DeJong to the Royals. Getz decided he would keep Crochet for the rest of the regular season and into the winter. He called Reinsdorf to tell him, and Reinsdorf was nonplussed in his response.
In some other front offices, Getz’s choices were panned. Some evaluators believed he didn’t get enough in the Fedde-Kopech-Pham trade; others questioned how he could’ve let the moment pass without dealing Crochet. He had the best available starting pitcher in the trade market, with big-market teams interested, and critics believed Getz should have flipped Crochet for building-block prospects. They wondered what kind of counsel he was getting from Reinsdorf, and others. “Somebody needed to tell him, ‘Look, this is the time when you have to trade him,'” said a longtime front office type who has worked through many deadlines.
Some rival evaluators disagree with the criticism, and so do the White Sox. Getz thinks Crochet will have at least the same trade value this winter, when teams in need of an ace will have more time to weigh the choice between paying big dollars for free agents like Blake Snell or dealing prospects for Crochet. And now teams know for sure that Crochet can handle a starter’s workload over a full season.
Hours after the White Sox made the decision to hold Crochet, they lost their 16th straight game.
Aug. 8
28-88
AS SOON AS the trade deadline passed, Getz wanted to move on from his manager, according to sources familiar with his thinking. It was not a matter of if, but when. But with rumors swirling about Grifol’s immediate future, a meeting took place on July 31 between Reinsdorf, Getz, Grifol and La Russa. And then, for a week, in one of the stranger twists of the season, nothing happened.
On Aug. 6, a losing streak that began before the All-Star break finally ended, at an American League record 21 games, with a win over Oakland. “It was just really good to get this behind us. I thought we played a clean game today,” Grifol told reporters. “Any time you win it’s great. Any time you win when you lose 21 in a row it’s even better. I’m proud of these guys.”
Two days later, Getz called Grifol to tell him he was making a change. Third base coach Eddie Rodriguez, assistant hitting coach Mike Tosar and bench coach Charlie Montoyo — all of the White Sox’s Latino staffers — were also fired. Grifol is a lifelong friend of Tosar and knew Rodriguez from their days together in the Royals’ organization. Getz thought that while Montoyo held the title of bench coach, Grifol was mostly leaning on Rodriguez and Tosar.
Getz believed that to get the White Sox to a better place, these were the right staff moves to make in early August. But he knew the optics of the choices were less than ideal. Getz called Michael Hill, MLB’s senior vice president for on-field operations, to provide background for the decision. The league monitors the diversity of MLB coaching staffs and is expected to do so on the White Sox’s next hires.
The front office promoted first-year coach Grady Sizemore to interim manager, essentially taking on-the-field decisions out of the dugout and into the executive suite. Sizemore had expressed no desire to manage but was picked because players like him. Getz stated that he’d look outside the White Sox family for a permanent replacement, squashing any talk of a reunion with Ozzie Guillen, who provides television commentary on games, or popular former catcher A.J. Pierzynski.
A month later, with the White Sox closing in on the all-time record for losses, the typically reticent Reinsdorf issued a statement. “Going back to last year, we have made difficult decisions and changes to begin building a foundation for future success,” he said. “What has impressed me is how our players and staff have continued to work and bring a professional attitude to the ballpark each day despite a historically difficult season. No one is happy with the results, but I commend the continued effort.”
Weeks after Pham was traded, he reflected on his time as a White Sox. The 1962 Mets had players like Pham — established veterans near the end of their days as active players, scu as Gil Hodges and Don Zimmer, who became witnesses to history.
“Everything compounded on the White Sox this season with injuries and rebuilding,” Pham said. “Guys are being allowed to develop in the big leagues and that’s never been done. Ten years ago you weren’t allowed to develop in the big leagues.
“I think the White Sox problem isn’t just a White Sox problem. I think it’s a universal problem going on in MLB. We have teams that are developing players in the big leagues. We’ve never seen that. Add all the injuries and the Sox are where they are.”
Sept. 24
36-120
BY MID-SEPTEMBER, IT seemed a matter of when, not if, the White Sox would break the Mets’ record. A long road trip to the West Coast garnered a 3-6 record, and the White Sox returned home with 120 losses.
Much of Tuesday’s game played out like so many of the defeats that came before it. The White Sox hitters failed to score for the game’s first seven innings. The bullpen finally wilted, and the Angels took the lead, with “Sell the team!” chants raining down from the stands.
“I get the frustration,” Sizemore said. “They want to see wins and they want to see them now.”
Though Chicago’s rally then postponed the seemingly inevitable, there are five more games in the season; the White Sox could climb to as many as 125 losses. Their path from here is unclear — because of new collective bargaining rules, the White Sox can’t receive a draft lottery pick; even after the worst season in history, they’ll pick no higher than 10th in next year’s draft. There is no quick path back to respectability for a team in the third-largest market in MLB. Fans booing might be the norm for the foreseeable future.
Still, Getz and his staff are looking ahead: refining a process through which they will hire the next manager, among a wide-ranging field of candidates from around the industry. As he did with lengthy processes to hire Bannister and Janish, Getz’s goal is to objectively pick the person who best fits the White Sox and what they need moving forward. This week, Getz made another important hire, tapping longtime scout David Keller — who spent many years with the Mets — to oversee their international department.
In mid-September, Getz watched a recent interview of UConn basketball coach Dan Hurley, about a tense meeting with his predecessor, Jim Calhoun. Early in Hurley’s tenure, he had complained to Calhoun about work impediments; Calhoun tells Hurley to stop whining and do the job. Getz relates to this. And as the White Sox disaster reaches its conclusion, Getz feels … energized. The challenge — the opportunity — is now as immense as the failure.
Sports
MLB playoff mega-preview: World Series odds, likely MVPs and how far all 8 remaining teams will go
The 2025 MLB playoffs are rolling along!
After the wild-card round ended with a trio of Game 3s, the division series matchups are set with all four Game 1s starting Saturday.
Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Is this the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally get to the Fall Classic? Will the Philadelphia Phillies make another deep run after a strong regular season?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all — or go home early — and a name to watch for on all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
Series outlooks | Schedule | Bracket | ESPN BET
Jump to a team:
TOR | SEA | NYY | DET
MIL | PHI | LAD | CHC
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-68 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Yankees (47.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.0% | ESPN BET Odds: +750
Team temperature: 91°
Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out, and they field as cleanly as any team in the postseason field. Toronto has scuffled lately, yes, and the culprit is a punchless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the game’s best units in runs scored as well as wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to mash their way past teams. They’ll need good pitching, and while there isn’t a clear ace or lockdown bullpen piece, they have droves of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence isn’t accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is quite the excellent predictor of success. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At age 35, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach by focusing more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate stable anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, hitting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and winning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season centered around putting the ball in play and not striking out while still featuring some power. But that pop vanished down the stretch before turning it on the final weekend. Their struggles correspond with Bo Bichette going on the injured list with a sprained knee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who hasn’t been cleared to begin running. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will hold a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July and August, pretty good in the other months, and on the whole, has allowed way too many home runs and absorbed way too many blown saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will rest largely on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Three true outcomes baseball got you down? Tune in to some Blue Jays baseball to fulfill all of your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play in 81.7% of its plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an AL team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers (51.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +550
Team temperature: 88°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is replete with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven shutout frames. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they’ve got the Big Dumper. Regardless of his might this year, Cal Raleigh himself can’t carry an entire team, which is why it’s nice to have Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup, too. And as long as Bryan Woo remains healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo might be the best in the postseason. Finish off with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Munoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodriguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the more obvious choice, but after his historic power season, it’s possible teams will pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the final two-plus months and bats after Raleigh in the lineup. Throw in some spectacular center-field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since … well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … Woo’s injury is a real issue. The All-Star, who exited his start on Sept. 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and he’s responded well from treatment, but Woo will go into the postseason without having pitched in a game in over two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA over 30 starts. He is critical to their World Series chances. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers. And in 2025, he cemented that by making his first All-Star team, the high point of a regular season in which he won 15 games, posted a 2.94 ERA, compiled 186⅔ innings and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that didn’t find itself until recently. Woo exited his last start with pectoral tightness. The hope is he’ll be good to go for the playoffs. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Behold the historic firsts … or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run ticker rolls back to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he’ll still attract plenty of attention, that number zero looms large over the Mariners’ franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the ALCS, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland — possible obstacles this year as well. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 94-68 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Red Sox in three games
Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (52.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +475
Team temperature: 115°
Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that’s not going to be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement it with a lineup of hitters who, even taking out Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would rank seventh in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around him. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have one of the game’s best starting pairs, and their relief pitching is showing good signs over the past week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting homers, they’ll be tough to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular-season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 over his past three postseasons across 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he’s certainly due for a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … relievers don’t perform to their track records. The names in New York’s bullpen pop: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. All four have been successful closers at the major league level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since adding Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half proved its floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their last road game of the regular season, collecting four hits, including the 10th-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will find himself in it often in October, whether he’s at first base or behind the plate. This lineup seems deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power.” — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Well, let’s face it, you root for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them around. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally goes off in October, it’s just good, solid baseball history that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Guardians in three games
ALDS opponent: Mariners (48.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 7.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +1200
Team temperature: 57°
Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the AL. Recent travails notwithstanding, this is a good baseball team, and even with a number of pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth — and in manager A.J. Hinch the acumen — to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball the past two seasons and one hell of an assignment for the Mariners if they have to face him twice in a five-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the slugging of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson shows up, find top-level form from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too long not knowing the feeling. –– Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the past 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels have won the award in the past 20 postseasons. So maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and the strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some big home runs. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t carry its weight. Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, recorded a 2.42 ERA in four September starts. And yet the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was still a bloated 4.84. That helps explain the team’s near-monumental collapse, though the offense and bullpen didn’t help matters. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, did not pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their ALDS roster. It marked his first season back from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never truly felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with help from a solid enough September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly blowing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters are going to have to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to prove he can. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the nosediving Tigers, who squeaked into the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only AL contender in a late-season free fall. Detroit’s .291 September winning percentage doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented reversal.. Only 10 eventual champs have sported a last-month winning percentage under .500. The worst was the .414 mark (12-17) of the 2006 Cardinals — who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 97-65 | NL Central champs
NLDS opponent: Cubs (56.2% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +750
Team temperature: 67°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve been the best team in baseball over six months. In the modern game, that takes a blend of depth, player development and fidelity to an ethos that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, unstack it and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play — disciplined and smart and fully bought-in — is an enviable brand of baseball. They’re a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, sure. But really fun because they bully without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in today’s game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There’s always the chance that a consistently winning team never makes the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ over 111 (and two more over 100), the NL-best 164 steals, the glovework that’s among the best in MLB by every publicly available defensive metric — it makes sense. They’re the best for a reason. So why would that change? — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Brice Turang is no longer just a slick-fielding second baseman with speed. He has added power this season, especially in the second half — during which he’s slugged over .500. He hits righties and lefties, does a good job of not chasing out of the zone and can pound fastballs. Oh, and he hit .364 with runners in scoring position. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … their lack of power catches up with them. Runs are often scarce in October when teams maximize deploying their best pitchers. And while manufacturing them by any means necessary is the goal, hitting home runs is an indicator of October success. The only team to finish outside the top nine in home runs for a season and reach the World Series over the past five years was the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers, meanwhile, finished this season tied for 21st in home runs with Christian Yelich’s 29 leading the way. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The hype that surrounded Jacob Misiorowski at midseason, prompting a surprising All-Star appearance despite fewer than 30 career major league innings, has since faded. In nine starts since then, his ERA is 5.45. He’s no longer good enough to crack the Brewers’ postseason rotation. Not yet, anyway. The team, though, is considering using him out of the bullpen, and that’s when things could get really interesting. Misiorowski captivated the nation because he possessed some of the sport’s most devastating stuff despite taking on the workload of a starting pitcher. Out of the bullpen, that triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would certainly play, especially in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Brewers are one of the three teams in this year’s field — along with the Mariners and Padres — hunting for their first title. But this was the best regular season in Milwaukee’s history, and for the first time since 1982, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with the best record in MLB. Intangibly, this is perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing team to watch, featuring flashy defenders, a number of high-volume base stealers and a lot of balls in play. In other words, the reasons to watch and root for the Brew Crew are many. It would be much harder to identify reasons you would not want to root for them. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 96-66 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Dodgers (49.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +475
Team temperature: 90°
Why they can win the World Series: Kyle Schwarber is made for October, and he will hold court, along with Bryce Harper, Cristopher Sanchez, Jhoan Duran and the rest of the cavalcade, in front of the most raucous crowd in baseball at Citizens Bank Park. Those are the featured players, but the Phillies’ run could hinge on their four starters’ capacity to go deep into games. The bullpen is top-heavy, and the top is good, but if they aren’t scared off by the third time through the order like so many others, the Phillies can ride their rotation far. Schwarber and Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances and are two of the best playoff performers of their generation. If the Phillies can hit some timely home runs — eight others on the roster reached double-digit homers — their case, already perhaps the most compelling in baseball, gets that much stronger. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: We have two logical choices here: Schwarber and Harper. Both have been outstanding in the playoffs. Schwarber has a .906 OPS and 21 home runs in 69 games, and Harper has a 1.016 OPS and 17 home runs in 53 games. Schwarber, of course, had a monster regular season. Let’s go with Harper, though. He knows how to lock in for October better than any other active hitter, and with time possibly running out on this aging Phillies team, it might be now or never for Harper to win a World Series. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … Trea Turner doesn’t quickly find his rhythm. Turner was placed on the injured list because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain Sept. 8. He was activated Friday and played in Sunday’s season finale. The Phillies’ offense hummed without Turner behind Schwarber’s continued dominance of opposing pitchers, but October is a different beast, and Turner is an elite talent who could change Philadelphia’s playoff fortunes. The shortstop won the NL batting title, led the league with 179 hits and stole 36 bases. A healthy Turner adds another dimension. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Jhoan Duran got a taste of postseason baseball with the Twins in 2023, but he has never experienced it quite like at “The Bank,” with his walkout song blaring through what is widely considered the loudest, most boisterous ballpark this time of year. The Phillies’ front office beat out a bevy of suitors for Duran at the trade deadline, and he has been everything the team could have imagined, locking down the back end of a leaky bullpen and looking very much like the final player of a title quest. Soon, the ninth inning will come, and “El Incomprendido” will play. Philly will be ready. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Tired of the bullpen parade? The Phillies are your team. Philadelphia far and away paced the majors in innings from starters. It wasn’t just volume either, as Philly logged baseball’s third-best rotation ERA (3.57). And it wasn’t because the Phillies preached pitch to contact: Philadelphia led all of baseball in strikeout rate from starting pitchers, and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Sure, the loss of Zack Wheeler is a bummer, but the Sanchez-led rotation remains the foundation of the Phillies and their greatest hopes to traverse the bullpen-heavy staffs of the rest of the bracket en route to the World Series. — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL West champs
Wild-card result: Defeated Reds in two games
NLDS opponent: Phillies (50.2 chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +375
Team temperature: 113°
Why they can win the World Series: They did it last year and pretty much everyone who contributed to that team is back — plus a few more. This time, they’ve got to get through the wild-card series, which is no fun, but their starting pitching depth is truly daunting. No matter how they deploy Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, any permutation works. The bullpen is … a work in progress. But if you’re seeking a functional relief corps on the fly, there are worse places to start than with a group of 10 who have thrown out of the bullpen this month, seven at 95-plus (including Roki Sasaki), with Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw likewise at the ready. As for the hitters: Ohtani will win his second straight NL MVP, Mookie Betts is right again, Freddie Freeman in October is automatic and even if Will Smith is out, what the Dodgers manage better than anyone is depth, and despite the disappointment of the regular season, there exists this truth: If every team plays its best, the Dodgers are better than all of them. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: How about Freeman in a repeat performance? Hey, Corey Seager won in 2020 and 2023 (for two different teams), although no player has won MVP in back-to-back World Series. Freeman has played 11 World Series games — and reached via a hit in all 11 with an OPS of 1.171. He never lets the moment get too big, and another big World Series would cement his status as one of the all-time great clutch postseason performers. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the bullpen sinks this behemoth. Six different Dodgers relievers finished September with an ERA north of 5.00. Their team bullpen ERA for the month that ranked 26th in baseball. Only three teams blew more saves. Tanner Scott‘s first season in Los Angeles was a colossal disappointment. Kirby Yates, their other major free agent bullpen addition, landed on the injured list again during the final week of the regular season. Brock Stewart, the only reliever acquired at the trade deadline, pitched in four games before going on the IL. As a result, the Dodgers will supplement the bullpen with starters; Kershaw, Sasaki and Sheehan all figure to play significant relief roles in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Baseball fans were delighted to see Ohtani grace the postseason stage last October, but that was only half of him. This year, Ohtani will be fully unlocked. He’ll pitch — in Game 1 of the division series against the Phillies — and he’ll hit, with few, if any, limitations. The Dodgers were very careful in how they handled Ohtani’s pitching return, all with the thought of making sure he was at his best going into October. That goal was accomplished. Ohtani has once again proven he can be as dominant on the mound as he is in the batter’s box. Now, he’ll show it when it really counts. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: You like dynasties? Another Dodgers title would further cement L.A.’s dominance over the rest of baseball. The Dodgers looked far more vulnerable than predicted during the season, and their struggles continued into the latter stages of the regular season. But Ohtani will unleash his two-way act in the playoffs for the first time, Betts has turned around his down season, and everyone wants to send Kershaw into retirement on a high note. Dynasties are dynasties because they win even when their plans haven’t unfolded exactly as they foresaw. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 92-70 | NL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Padres in three games
NLDS opponent: Brewers (43.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +800
Team temperature: 87°
Why they can win the World Series: They’re a magnificent defensive team, they’ve got Kyle Tucker back to charge an offense that has been a bottom-quarter run-scoring team in the second half, and Daniel Palencia has also returned with his velocity. Maybe their flashes of excellence when they were healthy get rekindled. The Cubs might not be as talented as the NL elite, but their lineup is filled with hitters willing to take walks and not striking out exorbitantly. That kind of approach — and home run hitting — win in October, and the Cubs have both. Keep the steady performances from Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller to lengthen the bullpen and hope for a mid-postseason return by Cade Horton, who would immediately make their chances that much better. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Ian Happ. Tucker has battled multiple injuries in the second half, including a calf injury that sidelined him most of September. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dropped off significantly in the second half. Seiya Suzuki has likewise slumped. Happ is the overlooked member of the Cubs’ lineup, but he’s a switch-hitter with power, he gets on base, controls his strikeouts reasonably well, has hit well in the second half and usually bats second or third, giving him plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the late injuries pushed them off track. The Cubs’ best every-day player (Tucker), top starting pitcher (Horton) and closer (Palencia) dealt with injuries down the stretch. Though Tucker (calf) and Palencia (shoulder) returned from the injured list during the regular season’s final week, Horton was pulled from his start last Tuesday because of back tightnesss and placed on the injured list Saturday because of a rib fracture, the team announced. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Here’s one thing we know about the Cubs going into these playoffs: they’re going to have to score runs, especially with Horton out for at least the first round. Kyle Tucker missed most of September and Pete Crow-Armstrong had the majors’ lowest OPS among qualified hitters after the start of August, which only heightens the pressure on someone like Michael Busch. There’s plenty of reason for hope. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately, but Busch, 27, has been at his best over these last couple weeks and led the team with 34 home runs this season. He’ll be at the top of the lineup against righties and his production will be critical. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: An eight-year title drought is small potatoes in Chicago, but 2016 is starting to feel like a long time ago. This version of the Cubs, led by first-title-seeker Craig Counsell, has a chance to carve out its place in the hearts of North Side fans with a deep run this October. When the Cubs have been at their best, they’ve featured an electric offense led by Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and current fan favorite (P-C-A! P-C-A!) Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Tucker headed for free agency, this might be the Cubs’ best shot at matching their 2016 heights with this group. — Doolittle
The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape with the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees all moving on one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.
L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS with the Cubs set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the other.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers are headed west to take on the Seattle Mariners, and the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in an AL East duel.
What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining team need to do to move on to the league championship series? Which players could be October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?
ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.
Key links: Mega-preview | Bracket | Schedule
Jump to a matchup:
NYY-TOR | CHC-MIL | DET-SEA | LAD-PHI
ALDS: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Upset forecast: (Blue Jays win 47.4% of simulations.) Forecasts like this spur fundamental questions best left to the ancient Greeks, like, “What is the essence of an upset?” The Blue Jays won the AL East, beat the Yankees in eight of their 13 meetings, and earned a first-round bye and the AL’s top seed. But the Yankees more than doubled the Jays’ run differential. The disconnect between runs and wins can be explained easily: Toronto went 43-30 in games decided by one or two runs; New York was 35-36.
The analytical precept is that non-close games are more telling when it comes to team quality. The Yankees went 33-15 in games decided by five or more runs; the Blue Jays were 25-23. Finally, in terms of run differentials, the Blue Jays were the AL’s second-best home team, behind Texas. But the Yankees were the league’s best road team.
All of this is a long way of saying that Toronto has the higher seed and the home-field advantage, but it is not the favorite in this series.
Blue Jays concern level: Red hot. The Jays’ regular season success sent fan expectations soaring. Could the three-decade title drought be quenched at last? — Doolittle
New York Yankees
What has impressed you most about the Yankees this season?
Their power. The Yankees led baseball with 274 home runs this season. The Dodgers were second with 244. New York had seven players hit at least 20. Anthony Volpe fell one short. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all-time sluggers, but Trent Grisham (34 homers), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), Cody Bellinger (29) and Ben Rice (26) give the Yankees the deepest power bank in the majors. Hitting the ball over the fence has proven key for postseason success in recent years. And the Yankees have been doing it better than everyone else all year.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?
It will continue against the Blue Jays because Blue Jays pitchers recorded the highest home run rate among postseason participants this year. Jose Berrios surrendered 25. Chris Bassitt gave up 22. Kevin Gausman yielded 21. Closer Jeff Hoffman gave up 15 — the second most in baseball among relievers. Bassitt is expected to be available for the ALDS after finishing the season on the injured list, but Berríos is unlikely to appear in the series. In October run-scoring environments, a mistake or two could make the difference.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The Yankees reached the World Series last year without Judge performing to his MVP-level expectations, causing a stir for another edition of his postseason struggles. But those Yankees had Juan Soto and a red-hot Stanton working their October magic. While the Yankees’ lineup is deeper than a year ago, Judge is the motor. And his career success against Toronto suggests he should have a huge series. Judge has a career .300/.420/.597 slash line with 41 home runs in 133 games against the Blue Jays. This year, he batted .325 with three home runs and a 1.118 OPS in 56 appearances across 13 games. He has crushed Gausman (1.283 OPS in 61 plate appearances), Berríos (1.195 OPS in 44 plate appearances) and Bassitt (.935 OPS in 28 plate appearances) over his career. This, on paper, is an ideal matchup for a two-time AL MVP looking to exorcise October postseason demons. — Castillo
Toronto Blue Jays
What carried the Blue Jays to an October bye?
A propensity to put the ball in play and strong defense. The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate this season was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a club since 2015. Two of the five teams with lower rates — the 2015 Kansas City Royals and 2017 Houston Astros — won the World Series.
Defensively, Toronto ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. In short, it puts pressure on teams to make plays, and it makes the plays themselves. It’s a sound combination for October when every out is crucial.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Yankees?
It won’t continue against the Yankees because stringing together hits in October, when the pitching rises to another level, is difficult. The Blue Jays tied for 11th in the majors with 191 home runs during the regular season — a solid output with George Springer (32) leading the way followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (23), Addison Barger (21) and Daulton Varsho (20). But that pales in comparison to New York. The Yankees blasted 274 homers — 30 more than the second-ranked Dodgers. New York had seven players club at least 20 — and Anthony Volpe fell one short. Power plays in October, and the Yankees have the substantial edge.
Which one player must deliver to put Toronto in the ALCS?
The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million contract to serve as the franchise’s cornerstone for another 14 years. The assignment includes impressing when it matters most. Guerrero is just 3-for-22 with one extra-base hit, two walks and five strikeouts in six career playoff games divided into two-game slices over three postseasons. It’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jays went 0-6 in those games. Guerrero now has a chance to fuel a deep October run after another strong regular season. — Castillo
NLDS: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Upset forecast: (Brewers win 56.2% of simulations) The Hiawatha Series! Yes, we tend to label these geographic rivalries with the interstates that connect them but in this case, let’s go with the Amtrak line that runs back and forth between Milwaukee and Chicago every day.
This is the first postseason edition and the Brewers, who posted baseball’s best record and run differential, are the statistical favorites. But the reasons to pick the Cubs are many: They offset many of Milwaukee’s advantages in speed and defense, and have more power. The Brewers’ pitching staff was better overall but struggled with health down the stretch. The Brewers have youth and the most athletic position group in the majors; the Cubs have more star power, especially if Kyle Tucker gets going.
Upset? The Cubs would be no Cinderella if they knock off Milwaukee, but the good people of Wisconsin would indeed be very upset.
Brewers concern level: Moderate. Losing to the hated Cubs would be a crusher, but this is an unflappable Brewers team, full of the hubris of youth. The clubhouse is upbeat and tightly knit, and this still-overlooked group will be aching to not only dispatch their rivals but also to show the nation why they were baseball’s best during the season. — Doolittle
Chicago Cubs
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The talk going into the series was how the Padres’ bullpen — which was arguably the best in baseball in the regular season — was dominant enough to maybe carry the Padres all the way to the World Series.
The Cubs’ bullpen? It wasn’t really generating a lot of hype.
This group has kind of been reconstructed on the fly throughout the season, but it looks really good right now. The secret weapon is veteran journeyman Brad Keller, who only had three saves in the regular season, but had a terrific year after adding 4 mph to his fastball and is now closing after Daniel Palencia got injured in September and missed a couple of weeks. (He’s back now.)
Why will/won’t it continue against the Brewers?
Why not? The numbers are legit. Keller is throwing 98 and had a 2.07 ERA. Palencia hit 100 mph in his Game 1 appearance. Drew Pomeranz, brought in from the Mariners in April, is a good lefty option who had a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Kittredge got a hold in Game 1, started Game 2 as the opener and got the save in Game 3 after Keller’s sudden control issues. Caleb Thielbar gives them a second good lefty. That’s a strong group that Craig Counsell can mix and match with and provide for a Cubs rotation without rookie Cade Horton, one of the best starters in the majors in the second half.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The second-half slides of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong received a lot of attention, but Seiya Suzuki‘s own slump was just as important to the Cubs’ offensive struggles in the second half. Suzuki hit .263 with an .867 OPS through the All-Star break but .213 with a .688 OPS after.
Given that Tucker is playing through some injury issues and Crow-Armstrong has struggled to make adjustments after his big first half, the Cubs need Suzuki to deliver and he did that with a big home run in Game 1 against the Padres. — Schoenfield
Milwaukee Brewers
What carried the Brewers to an October bye?
Pitching, defense, speed and timely hitting. Only the Rangers and Padres allowed fewer runs than the Brewers as Milwaukee had a good balance between starting pitching (third in the majors in ERA) and bullpen (sixth in ERA). The Brewers ranked first in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and second in the majors with a .279 average with runners in scoring position — two keys to them finishing third in runs scored despite ranking just 22nd in home runs.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Cubs?
The Brewers weren’t a popular pick to reach the World Series precisely because many believe this formula won’t work as well in the postseason as it did in the regular season. Maybe that’s unfair, but the numbers are clear: You have to hit more home runs than your opponents to win in October. That can still happen for Milwaukee, but the Brewers will likely need some non-home run hitters to step up with some power.
The other concern arose because of a couple key injuries to the pitching staff, with Trevor Megill, the Brewers’ closer most of the season, returning from a lengthy absence and starter Brandon Woodruff battling a lat strain and not pitching since Sept. 17.
Which one player must deliver to put Milwaukee in the NLCS?
Brice Turang could be the guy who proves a surprising source of power. He finished with a solid 18 home runs, but was even better in the second half when he hit .308/.380/.536 with 12 home runs in 63 games. As the production increased, manager Pat Murphy moved Turang into a middle-of-the-order spot in the lineup more often down the stretch. On the other hand, Turang also hit just one home run in his final 23 games. — Schoenfield
ALDS: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Upset forecast: (Mariners win 51.6% of simulations) The Mariners’ baseline is slightly better because of their much better finish to the season than Detroit’s woeful ending but over the full 162-game slate, they had only a five-run edge in differential. In other words, if Detroit were to beat Seattle, it would at best be a very mild upset. The Tigers could get two Tarik Skubal starts in the ALDS on normal rest, Game 2 in Seattle and a potential decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. That, as much as anything, makes Detroit a threat to advance to the ALCS. Their late-season swoon was considerable but what we’ve seen over the past week is a Tigers club that has already shaken that off.
Mariners concern level: Historic. Seattle knows it’s facing a tough opponent but they match up well with the Tigers. But when you’ve never been to the World Series, there is a baseline level of concern that is always going to be kind of high. — Doolittle
Detroit Tigers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
Give the Tigers credit for turning the page on their near-catastrophic September that saw them blow the biggest final-month lead in MLB history by beating the team that edged them for the division crown in the wild-card round.
Of course, it helped to have the ultimate momentum changer in Tarik Skubal in Game 1. Skubal’s 14-strikeout performance was a postseason masterpiece and sets up this possibility: Can he pull a Madison Bumgarner circa 2014 and put his team on his back for an entire month?
Why will/won’t it continue against the Mariners?
Here’s the good news for the Tigers: Skubal can start in Game 2 of the ALDS on four days of rest. Then, thanks to two off days, if the series goes five games he can start Game 5 on four days of rest. Skubal started back-to-back games on four days of rest only once all season since he generally worked on five or more days, but that one time turned out just fine: In the second of those starts, he allowed one hit with 13 strikeouts.
So, yes, Skubal’s dominance can continue, but they’ll need others on the staff to step up against a Seattle offense that was the best in baseball in September. The performance against Cleveland was encouraging, but Cleveland’s lineup is not Seattle’s lineup.
Which one player must deliver for them to pull off the upset?
Besides Skubal? Let’s go with a pair here: Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. The Tigers are in the unique position of having arguably the best pitcher on the planet and also not really having a fourth starter, so it’s crucial they get something from at least one of their other two starters in the games Skubal doesn’t pitch. Neither made it through five innings in the wild-card round and Detroit is going to need more length than that to get past Seattle. — Schoenfield
Seattle Mariners
What carried the Mariners to an October bye?
We all know the Mariners can pitch. The problem in recent years has been the offense. This year was different. The Mariners sprinted past the shorthanded Astros in September to win the AL West with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez carrying the offensive surge.
Seattle led the majors in runs scored, home runs and wRC+ in September. They were second in OPS and wOBA. Combined with that potent pitching staff, the Mariners ripped off 11 straight wins and 17 wins in 18 games to comfortably reach the postseason with a bye — and emerge as a trendy pick to reach the World Series.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Tigers?
It will continue against the Tigers because even Skubal struggled to handle the Mariners in their two meetings during the regular season. Skubal didn’t complete six innings in either start, tossing 5⅔ innings in Seattle on April 2 and five innings at home on July 11. He combined to allow seven runs on 10 hits. October is another beast, of course, and Skubal is coming off a historic performance in Cleveland. Even if he is dominant, the Tigers’ pitching staff faces a steep challenge. If he’s not, the Tigers’ chances to advance are very slim.
Which one player must deliver to put Seattle in the ALCS?
Raleigh could end up winning AL MVP, but Rodriguez might be the team’s most important hitter in October. Rodriguez made the All-Star team again this summer, but he was a significantly better hitter post-All-Star break — continuing his trend as a late-season performer. The center fielder led the Mariners in batting average, wRC+, OPS and fWAR in the second half. As the man tasked to protect Raleigh in the lineup, a strong showing from Rodriguez could force pitchers to attack Raleigh — and that’s a tough recipe for success for opposing teams. — Castillo
NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Upset forecast: (Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.
This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.
Phillies concern level: Nonexistent. Look, the Phillies know who they are playing. But with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and Jhoan Duran on their side, this is not a team that is going to fret about anything. They will just wait for the adrenaline to flow. — Doolittle
Los Angeles Dodgers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The Dodgers haven’t really run out their “A” team for most of the season as they babied their starters for much of the season, but now we can see how good this team can be with a healthy rotation. Blake Snell was dominant in the first game until finally tiring in the seventh. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the seasonlong ace for the Dodgers, was solid in Game 2, escaping a bases-loaded no-outs jam in the sixth. The Dodgers were confident enough in those two that they saved Ohtani for what would have been Game 3 — and now is Game 1 of the NLDS. Oh, Ohtani can hit a little, too. Remember, the Dodgers won it all last season with Ohtani having a good-but-not-great postseason at the plate. After his two-homer game in Game 1 this postseason, watch out.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Phillies?
The Dodgers certainly have to love where they are. Ohtani slowly worked his way up to a normal workload and pitched six innings in his final start, throwing 91 pitches. He allowed just one run over his final four appearances and surrendered just three home runs in 47 innings. Thanks to having three potential off days to play five games in this series, Ohtani could start Game 5 on six days of rest.
After his initial one-inning appearances in June, Ohtani was given at least six days off between starts, and his three starts in September came with eight, 10 and six days of rest, and he will have 10 days before his Game 1 NLDS appearance. The Dodgers will worry about the NLCS if they get there.
Which one player must deliver for L.A. to move on?
This is clearly about players, plural — as in relief pitchers. The sketchy Dodgers bullpen didn’t ease the confidence of Dodgers fans — or Dave Roberts — with a poor showing in Game 1 against Cincinnati, when the Dodgers had a 10-2 lead only to see the bullpen start walking everybody and the Reds load the bases and have the tying run on deck. Who Roberts trusts in the highest-leverage situations — and can deliver — remains a question. But there is hope Roki Sasaki can be a part of the answer after his strong showing in Game 2 against the Reds. — Schoenfield
Philadelphia Phillies
What carried the Phillies to an October bye?
The starting rotation and a monster season from Kyle Schwarber. The rotation led the NL in ERA and led the majors — by 51 innings — in innings pitched. Cristopher Sanchez led the way with an absolute monster season of his own — in fact, it was Sanchez, and not Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal, who led the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR. Meanwhile, Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, including setting a major league record with 23 home runs as a left-handed batter against left-handed pitchers.
Will it continue against the Dodgers?
Of course, a large part of that rotation success was Zack Wheeler, but he’s out for the postseason. Ranger Suarez had a terrific season but wasn’t great his final three starts, allowing 12 runs and four home runs in 14⅓ innings. And the fourth starter after Jesus Luzardo is either Aaron Nola, who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence given his 6.01 ERA and mediocre postseason results in his career, or Walker Buehler, who was signed at the end of August after the Red Sox released him. In other words: There are at least some slight concerns here for a rotation that was so good.
As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.
Which one player must deliver to put Philadelphia in the NLCS?
Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield
-
Jorge Castillo
TORONTO — The New York Yankees touched down in Canada early Friday with some bulletin board material ahead of their American League Division Series showdown against the Toronto Blue Jays.
“Contrary to some thoughts up here, we’re a really good team,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said in a news conference Friday.
Boone was referring to a pointed critique that Blue Jays television color analyst and former major leaguer Buck Martinez offered on the Yankees during a game between the Blue Jays and Houston Astros on Sept 9.
The Yankees had taken two of three games from the Blue Jays the previous weekend, but Martinez was unimpressed.
“The Yankees, they’re not a good team,” Martinez said. “I don’t care what their record is.”
The Yankees went 5-8 against the Blue Jays in the regular season and just 1-6 in Toronto. The head-to-head series proved significant when both clubs finished tied atop the AL East with 94 wins, and the Blue Jays won the division because of the season-series tiebreaker.
“I know Buck had some thoughts,” Boone later added. “That’s all I was responding to. He’s wrong. But it doesn’t matter. We’ve got to go play, and we’ve got to go perform, as everyone does this time of year. We feel really good about our team. We’re playing well. All that’s in the past now. We’ve got to play well moving forward.”
The first move for both clubs was deciding their starting pitcher for Game 1 on Saturday. The Blue Jays chose veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman. The Yankees picked Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, over Will Warren, who will be available out of the bullpen.
Boone said Max Fried will start Game 2 on Sunday.
Gil and Gausman last started in their clubs’ regular-season finales Sept. 28.
Gausman, 34, tallied a 3.59 ERA in 193 innings across 32 starts. He allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 22⅔ innings across four starts against the Yankees.
“He’s the same guy every single day,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “You don’t worry about him getting caught up in the noise and the stuff that goes with a Game 1.”
Gil, 27, missed the first four months of the season because of a lat injury before recording a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts. He faced Toronto on Sept. 9, holding the Blue Jays to one run on three hits over six innings.
“Just feel like he’s ready for this,” Boone said. “He’s in line for it. Decided we want to keep Warren an option in the pen, and we feel like Luis is ready to go.”
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment12 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024