121 losses?! The numbers behind the White Sox’s season of shame
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
The 2024 Chicago White Sox now stand alone in baseball’s hall of futility — 121 losses and counting, a staggering total too extreme to completely grasp. It’s surreal. It’s jaw-dropping. And if it had not actually happened, you might think it was impossible.
Believe it or not, this season across MLB is one of relative parity, a general regression toward the middle after a period of unusual polarization in the sport. At least that’s true at the top of the standings. For the first time since 2014, there isn’t going to be a 100-win team this season. Since 2017, there has been an average of three 100-win clubs per season.
But you won’t find parity on the South Side of Chicago. That the White Sox would set the mark in such a context underscores how remarkable it is that they’ve done what they’ve done.
That number — 121 — is bad enough, but of course Chicago has a few more days to add to it. The final number will hang like an albatross around everyone associated with the team forever, as 120 has for the 1962 New York Mets over the past six-plus decades.
The record loss total for the White Sox is the headliner, but it’s also an avatar for a whole slew of incredible numbers and the rampant dysfunction that has fueled them. Some are more or less trivial, but still pretty incredible. Some are explanatory, telling us a bit about how the White Sox have done something that should not be possible.
Here are 12 numbers — beyond 121 — that help explain the 2024 Chicago White Sox.
81.7%
The 1962 Mets lost 120 games, but, remarkably, they were fun. Even as the losses piled up, their fans embraced the expansion team. Manager Casey Stengel kept the baseball writers entertained. One of them, Jimmy Breslin, wrote a classic book about the season (“Can’t Anyone Here Play this Game?”).
There hasn’t been anything fun about this year’s White Sox, and it’s hard to see anyone wanting to write a book about them. Their fans, as they say, have stayed away in droves. The White Sox social media team threw up its hands. The ineptitude gathered so much momentum that a kind of fatalistic schadenfreude set in. When the club reached 114 losses, the Chicago Sun-Times ran a poll, asking, “At this point, are you rooting for them to break [the loss record]?”
Out of 1,450 respondents, 81.7% said they were.
7
Starting pitching has been the foundation for the White Sox’s success this season. You might scan that and see it as pure snark and, in a sense, that’s what it is. Still, Chicago’s starters as a group haven’t been tragically bad. It’s a bad rotation, but White Sox starters rank 24th in fWAR and 27th in FIP. Other teams have been worse.
Can you imagine how bad this would be if the White Sox had not gotten occasionally competent starting pitching from the likes of Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet and Jonathan Cannon? Well, you really don’t have to, because we’ve seen that team since the All-Star break.
Fedde’s seven wins are going to lead the team. That’s a remarkably low number but not unprecedented. Just last season, JP Sears and Shintaro Fujinami led Oakland with a mere five wins apiece. What’s remarkable is that Fedde is going to lead the White Sox in wins even though he was dealt at the MLB trade deadline, two months before the end of the season. His last win for Chicago was on July 10.
Fedde and Crochet rank one-two on the team in bWAR and have been flat-out good for most of the season. Crochet was a leading Cy Young candidate into June, but to protect his arm (and trade value) the White Sox curtailed his workload. He hasn’t pitched more than four innings since June 30, a span in which he has started 14 times. Well, you can’t win if you don’t go five, so Crochet’s win total has been frozen at six since he beat the Red Sox on June 7.
So, by default, the long-gone Fedde is your 2024 White Sox win champ. With seven.
12
As mentioned, the season will end with Fedde and Crochet finishing 1-2 in bWAR and wins on the 2024 White Sox. They will do those things even though neither has won a single game for Chicago since July 10. Zero. From the two best pitchers on the team.
Since Fedde’s last Chicago win, every team in baseball has gotten at least 25 wins from its starting pitchers. Except for the White Sox. Since Fedde’s last South Side victory, Chicago’s starters have gone 12-52.
This number has more than trivial value because it in part explains how the White Sox’s descent to this historic nadir accelerated as the season progressed. As bad as Chicago was, for a while it could count on being competitive at least two out of every five times through the rotation. With Crochet being forced to turn things over to a historically awful bullpen after, at most, four innings, and with Fedde donning a Cardinals uniform, those two days were lost.
20
No one has suffered the ramifications of the White Sox’s lack of options more than right-hander Chris Flexen. This figure represents the number of consecutive starts he made in a game his team went on to lose. That’s a modern record.
We could have also gone with 23. That number represents Flexen’s streak of starts without earning a winning decision, a streak that was finally snapped Thursday.
Flexen has an ERA+ of 83 (100 is league average), yet he’s going to lead the White Sox in innings pitched (160). He finished just two innings short of qualifying for the ERA title. He wouldn’t get that kind of volume on a better team, but there are pitchers this season with worse ERA+ figures and more innings. Through it all, he has been healthy and one of Chicago’s five best available starters.
Like the team around him, Flexen has been a nasty combination of subpar performance and bad luck. He has had some decent outings, including 10 quality starts. His rate of quality starts (33%) is below average, but over 30 games that should have yielded much better than a 3-15 mark. According to Baseball Reference, Flexen is tied with Fedde and Colorado’s Austin Gomber for the most games (7) in which he has exited with a lead that was blown by the bullpen.
The bottom line is what it is: Flexen finished 2024 with three wins over 30 starts. In all of baseball history, among pitchers with at least 30 starts, only three have fared as badly. Two of those were Jerry Koosman (1978 Mets, also 3-15) and Spencer Turnbull (2019 Tigers, 3-17).
The third and possibly most apt historical comp for Flexen’s record is Jack Nabors, who went 1-20 for a team the White Sox ought to keep in mind over their remaining games. We’ll get to them.
35%
That’s the White Sox’s save percentage. Yes, that 35% mark, built upon an MLB-high 37 blown saves, is the worst in baseball and it’s not close. Miami is second worst at 53%. The MLB average is 63%.
The number gets worse the more you contextualize it. According to Stathead, it’s the worst figure in a full season of the expansion era (since 1961). Since World War II, only the 1949 Cincinnati Reds (33.5%) were worse. But let’s face it, this is far more dreadful than that because bullpens play such a major role in team performance in today’s MLB.
Chicago’s relief ERA (4.77) is 29th in the majors, with only Colorado’s Coors Field-affected figure worse (5.30). The bullpen has walked 327 batters — 57 more than any other club. Only one bullpen (Toronto) has yielded more homers (82). Chicago’s starters have departed with 27 leads that were then blown by the relief staff. That’s five more than any other club.
Finally, as an homage to our Fedde note: Chicago’s save leader is Michael Kopech, with nine. No one else has more than two. And, like Fedde, Kopech was traded away at the deadline. His last White Sox save came July 10 — in relief of Fedde’s final Chicago win.
9
Triples mean nothing from an evaluative standpoint. While it’s true that fast runners tend to get more of them than slow runners, ballpark factors loom almost as large. On top of that, Guaranteed Rate Field is a poor park for triples. About the only way to get one in that park is to poke a ball into the right-field corner and hope it rattles around a bit.
Still, even in this meaningless, random category, the White Sox stand out for their failure. Chicago has nine triples all season, four fewer than any other team and fewer than or equal to the number of triples Corbin Carroll, Jarren Duran, Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Mike Yastrzemski have by themselves.
Again, this is a fluke category, but it illustrates one thing about this team: It’s not just bad. It’s boring.
$3.37M
According to salary data from Spotrac, the White Sox have baseball’s 18th-ranked total payroll allocation ($133.8 million). They’re on pace for 40 wins, a cost of $3.37 million per victory.
For as few wins as they have, the White Sox have spent more on a per-win basis than any other team but the Mets. The Yankees ($3.26 million) and Mets ($3.54 million) are sandwiched around Chicago on this leaderboard. But their costs are justified in that those clubs are, you know, winning games and playing on into October (or coming very close).
The three highest-paid White Sox and their 2024 bWAR: Yoan Moncada, $24.8M (0.3); Andrew Benintendi, $17.1M (minus-0.9); Luis Robert Jr. $12.5M (1.3).
.2353
That’s the winning percentage of the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics — the club for whom Nabors toiled — taken to four decimal places. That’s the worst in modern baseball history. The A’s went 36-117 and played a tie game, which isn’t included in their percentage calculation, as it would be in the NFL, for example. But this matters to us in 2024.
Against all odds that mattered to us in 2024, until the White Sox improbably won three straight over the Angels this week. Now the worst winning percentage the White Sox can finish with (39-123, or .241) is safely above the 1916 Athletics’ mark. Hey, at this point every positive matters.
In many respects, the 1916 A’s are very much the historical antecedent of the 2024 White Sox. Like Chicago, that Philadelphia team was very good only a couple of years prior to its nadir, having played in the 1914 World Series. Like the White Sox, that good team was subsequently dismantled to horrific results.
The 1962 Mets were an expansion club, so at least they had a built-in excuse for their foibles. Heck, the all-time loss champ, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders — who went 20-134 the season before what we consider the modern era — get a pass. The Spiders were owned by the Robison family, who also happened to own the NL team in St. Louis. After the 1898 campaign, they transferred all the good players in Cleveland over to St. Louis. That’s not something that could happen these days.
Getting to 39 means the White Sox and their remaining proud fans get the straw-grasping option of pointing at Connie Mack’s worst team and claiming that, indeed, there was a team even worse.
2
That’s the number of managers Chicago has had this season, with Grady Sizemore taking over for Pedro Grifol on an interim basis in August. As bad as things were for Grifol (28-89), Sizemore has fared even worse (11-32) given the hollowed-out roster he has to work with.
Sizemore is the 43rd manager in White Sox history, a total that includes two-game stints for interim skippers Don Cooper (2011) and Doug Rader (1986). In what might be a permanent reminder of the 2024 ChiSox, Grifol (.319) and Sizemore (.256) rank 42nd and 43rd on the franchise list for manager winning percentage.
This will remain the case even if Chicago wins its final two games.
Minus-21.5
It’s not like the White Sox entered the season with high expectations. As of March 19, as spring training began to move toward the start of the regular season, their over/under for season wins stood at 61.5, per ESPN BET. That’s a 100-loss team, and given the nature of forecasts, that is a pretty stunning baseline. Still, Oakland (57.5) and Colorado (60.5) were even lower.
The silver lining in low expectations is that they afford the opportunity to over-deliver. Indeed, the A’s are on pace for 70 wins, quite a jab in the eye at those early forecasts. The Rockies have been mostly as advertised but even they are on pace for 62 wins — a minor triumph.
The White Sox’s pace of 40 wins is 21.5 below their baseline expectation entering the season. No one else has even come close to that kind of showing. The next-biggest negative deviation from the over/under is 16.5 by the Miami Marlins.
In a nutshell, this encapsulates just how stunning this level of losing is for any team, much less the White Sox. Given some of the lowest expectations in the sport, Chicago has still managed to be baseball’s biggest disappointment.
Well, that is unless you are one of the 81.7% of respondents to that Sun-Times poll who hoped this would come to pass.
Minus-7
The White Sox’s run differential is bad. Really bad. They’re at minus-311 runs, on pace to finish at minus-317 on the season. The modern era record is minus-349, a mark set by the 1932 Red Sox and challenged by last year’s Athletics (minus-339). Chicago would have to really get hammered from here to break the record but, well, let’s just say that this is a barrel with no apparent bottom.
As it stands, the White Sox’s run differential is representative of a team that ought to win 47 games over a 162-game campaign, putting Chicago on track to finish seven wins short of its run profile. That’s the biggest disparity in baseball, with the Cubs (5.3) finishing a distant second — giving Chicago a firm grip on a leaderboard a city doesn’t want to be on even once.
That seven-win shortfall might lead the majors this season, but it’s not a record or even that historically unusual. It’s a typical number for the unfortunate leader on this leaderboard in a given season. While bad luck doesn’t entirely explain this gap — check out that section above on the bullpen — misfortune does tend to play a large role in such disparities.
So it’s not misleading to claim that not only have the White Sox been baseball’s worst team, they’ve also been the unluckiest. This is evident in other ways:
• Using injury data from Baseball Prospectus, I calculate an in-season injury index for each team based on how much time players have missed and how good those players are. The league average is 100. The team with the best injury luck has been Toronto, with an index of 116.3. The Jays have had some key injuries (Jordan Romano and Bo Bichette, to name two) but the team’s overall volume of games missed has been low.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Dodgers at 84.3. L.A.’s injury woes, particularly when it comes to its rotation, have been well chronicled. The White Sox have an injury index of 89.9, ranking 27th. So, not only have Chicago’s key contributors struggled, they’ve also been injured a lot. There’s a joke about bad food/small portions in there somewhere.
• The Statcast leaderboards also underscore Chicago’s misfortune. White Sox hitters have the biggest disparities between actual and expected results, based on quality of contact, average, slugging and WOBA. It’s a clean sweep.
Meanwhile, Chicago pitchers are only tied for the biggest disparity between actual and expected WOBA allowed.
Look, you don’t get to 121 losses by being merely bad, though obviously that is a prerequisite. You also have to be unlucky. Across the board, Chicago has labored in futility and misfortune alike.
In short, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.
274
Monday, Sept. 30, will be the 274th day of the year 2024 on the Gregorian calendar. The MLB regular season will come to an end. Come next spring, the White Sox begin a new season with a clean slate, every one of those 121 (and counting) losses confined to the history books.
For the White Sox, this winter and the seasons to come will determine whether getting a fresh start is, for them, actually a good thing. They can at least take solace in this: Historically speaking, it can’t get worse.
Can it?
With conference play set to open across the country in Week 3, we’re about to get a much firmer grasp on the 2025 college football landscape. Among other things, this weekend will deliver fresh windows into first-year quarterbacks at Georgia and Tennessee when the Bulldogs travel to Neyland Stadium. Elsewhere in the SEC, Florida visits No. 3 LSU with the pair of SEC rivals respectively shouldering very different but equally hefty stakes. Meanwhile, some of college football’s most surprising early-season storylines will continue to play out Saturday with No. 18 South Florida leading the charge as the surging Bulls venture south to No. 5 Miami.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups in this weekend’s pair of high-profile SEC clashes, the programs that have surprised us so far and the top quotes of the past seven days entering Week 3. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Tennessee | Florida-LSU
Teams that have surprised us | Quotes of the Week
What will Georgia and Tennessee need from their new starting QBs?
Georgia: Quarterback Gunner Stockton gets his first SEC road test at Tennessee on Saturday, and the Bulldogs will be looking for him to deliver more in the downfield passing game. Stockton played OK in Georgia’s first two wins over Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay, completing 69% of his pass attempts for 417 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for two scores against the Thundering Herd. His legs weren’t much of a factor in last week’s closer-than-expected win against the Governors. Stockton has taken care of the football and hasn’t put the defense in bad situations, but Georgia needs more explosive plays on offense. He has attempted only 10 passes beyond 10 yards. Georgia went into the transfer portal to get USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, and Colbie Young is back after sitting out most of the 2024 season because of a suspension. Those playmakers have to be more involved on offense, along with tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. If Georgia is going to beat Tennessee for the ninth straight time, Stockton has to be more comfortable letting the ball fly, especially against a secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL) and Rickey Gibson III (arm) because of injuries.
Tennessee: The Volunteers couldn’t have asked for much more from transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar in their first two victories against Syracuse and FCS program East Tennessee State. The former App State starter completed 66.1% of his attempts for 535 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw a 73-yard touchdown to Braylon Staley against the Orange and a 53-yarder to Mike Matthews against the Buccaneers. He might have to do even more against Georgia’s defense, which brings back promising safety KJ Bolden and cornerback Daylen Everette, a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Bulldogs are going to try to stifle Tennessee’s running game and get after Aguilar in the pocket. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have had UT coach Josh Heupel’s number in recent seasons. The Bulldogs haven’t given up explosive plays, a trademark of Heupel’s system. In each of the past three losses to Georgia, the Volunteers’ high-flying offense failed to throw for 200 yards and didn’t have a passing touchdown. — Mark Schlabach
What do Florida and LSU need to capitalize on to win?
Florida: Aside from avoiding penalties, including spitting on a player? The Gators have to play with the emotion and intensity that comes with knowing their season is hanging in the balance after a shocking 18-16 loss to USF. They can do that by setting the tone on defense, which played well for stretches against the Bulls but then gave up 87 yards on eight plays on the final drive. LSU has struggled to run the ball through two games, and frustrations boiled over after a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, in which the Tigers averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In their win over LSU last year, Florida held the Tigers to 2.9 yards per carry. The good news for Florida is it won’t be facing a dual-threat quarterback like Byrum Brown. So if the Gators can limit the LSU backs, they will give themselves a shot. — Andrea Adelson
LSU: The Gators might be more desperate, but the Tigers should be plenty motivated after what happened in Gainesville last fall. LSU’s defense looks like the better of the two units and must cause more distress for DJ Lagway, who averaged 17.4 yards per completion in the 2024 win. The Tigers hurried Lagway nine times but never sacked him. They also let down in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns allowed. LSU’s upgrades on defense and playing at home, where coach Brian Kelly implored that the crowd needs to “live up to our résumé as the toughest place to play in the country,” must become outcome-swinging factors. Garrett Nussmeier is still the superior quarterback, and if LSU can get Caden Durham going — he had 95 rushing yards against Florida last season — the Tigers should prevail. — Adam Rittenberg
Five teams that have surprised us so far
South Florida: It would have been very easy to look at South Florida’s first two games of the season and have both of them — against Boise State and Florida — earmarked as likely losses. Instead, the Bulls went out and started 2-0, making a surprising early case as the best Group of 5 team. The win against Boise State was particularly impressive because of how lopsided it was (34-7). Boise State looked nothing like the team that reached the playoff last season (losing running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, played a significant role in that).
UCLA: After the Bruins finished the 2024 season winning four of their final six games, they brought in transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the offseason. It was reasonable to be optimistic about the direction of the football program. Two games later, UCLA looks like an underdog in all nine of the Big Ten games on its schedule. The Bruins weren’t remotely competitive in their 43-10 loss to Utah, then fell behind 23-0 to UNLV before making it look more respectable in a 30-23 loss last week. Now, UCLA will have to brace for another season of playing in a more than half-empty Rose Bowl.
Kansas State: The only thing between the Wildcats and an 0-3 start, is a last-minute touchdown against FCS North Dakota. Their three-point losses to Iowa State and Army aren’t the end of the world, but this team was expected to compete for the Big 12 title (and still could, to be fair) and hasn’t yet looked the part. Against Army, quarterback Avery Johnson was limited to 172 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. That’s not a formula with which K-State can win.
Florida State: The roller coaster in Tallahassee has been a wild ride. In no other era of college football does it seem plausible for a team to win 19 games in a row, then lose 11 of 13 and then immediately jump back into the top 10. And yet this is the life the Seminoles have lived over the past few seasons. FSU was expected to be better this season, but its convincing win against Alabama in Week 1 might have been the most surprising result of the young season.
Mississippi State: After finishing 2-10 last season with a winless SEC campaign, the Bulldogs didn’t have much momentum. But after an upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State, perhaps this is a team that could be bowling at the end of the season. With games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois the next two weeks, a 4-0 start seems likely before the gauntlet of conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“According to who? Arch said that to you?” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian responded to a question this week as speculation swirled over the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom, so I don’t know what faces you make when you’re doing that.”
“Who has one of those? What does that look like? What does a solidified quarterback look like? What does that look like? I want to know. We play quarterbacks every week. What does a solidified quarterback look like?” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said when asked if he had concerns around the absence of a “solidified quarterback” with third-string quarterback Ryan Staub expected to start ahead of veteran Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis in Week 3. “That could mean something’s up with your roster if it’s clear,” Sanders continued. “Then [when] that clear guy goes down, what’s up with the second one? I like where we are, man. I like what we have. I like what we’re playing with. I like these dice I’m shaking.”
“Just wanted to see if we could,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of the Tigers’ illegal free kick against Kansas in Week 2 that prompted the Big 12 to suspend the responsible officiating crew on Tuesday. “You know, it’s like asking your parents if you can do something that you know they probably shouldn’t let you do. But sometimes they get it wrong.”
“I love Darian to death,” Tulane coach Jon Sumrall said of Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah ahead of the Blue Devils’ Week 3 visit to Tulane. “I’ve said this publicly: if you play one snap, 100 snaps, 1,000 snaps for me, I’ll love you for the rest of my life. I care about him, wish him well, saw him this summer — I’ve got nothing but love for Darian.”
“I’ve talked to many that believe across the country this is the progress we need to make,” LSU’s Brian Kelly said of Ohio State Buckeyes coach Ryan Day’s response to proposed transfer portal changes. “I want to get my roster set. Now, I know there’s probably 12 or 16 teams that might be in the playoffs at that time. I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht. I mean, we got to get this thing set and its best position at this time to allow us to set our rosters moving forward.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.
I’ve circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week’s card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football’s version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we’re still figuring out who’s the real deal and who’s just catfishing us.
No spoilers yet, but let’s just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I’m betting the market hasn’t caught up.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5
The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we’ve seen on the field. It’s early. I know. However, I have doubts.
Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That’s like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.
The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don’t need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that’s Georgia Tech.
Through two games, GT’s rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with four different players already ripping off runs of 27 yards or longer, including quarterback Haynes King.
That rushing strength will be tested, and King’s injury status is something to keep an eye on, but he is expected to play. He’s a quarterback who forces you to defend every blade of grass.
I look back to late last season and think of this as it déjà vu for Clemson’s defense. They saw this exact movie last season with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (166 rushing yards). King has a very similar skill set, except GT’s overall offense is more explosive.
Grab the points. The Yellow Jackets have the sting to pull off the upset.
Bet to make: Oregon -27.5 and Northwestern UNDER 10.5
Oregon is beating up on opponents they’re supposed to, winning by a combined score of 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. The offense has been balanced and explosive, led by Dante Moore‘s efficiency and a backfield that’s averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Now they face a Northwestern defense ranked 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, the same group Tulane gashed for 269 rushing yards in Week 1. This sets up as a trench mismatch, and Oregon has the speed and depth to exploit it.
Northwestern’s secondary is solid, but that was against Western Illinois, and even still, Oregon’s run game is the hammer and Northwestern’s front is the nail. The Ducks also are second in yards gained, meaning they are finishing drives at an elite rate. This is one of those matchups where Oregon can control the script, lean on their ground game and force Northwestern to play catch-up with an offense that lacks any weapons to contend.
Betting against this Oregon offense right now (against soft opponents) feels risky. Now, both of the Ducks games were at home, but I see this unit translating on the road, too, in the right context. I’m not at all ready to call them championship ready, but beating up on the little guys? Yes.
Also worth considering: Northwestern team total UNDER 9.5 points (+105)
Oregon’s defense has allowed only two red zone trips. The Wildcats are averaging only 4.5 yards per pass with five turnovers in two games. Oregon’s defense isn’t flashy, but it forces long drives and eliminates explosive plays, allowing just three gains of 20+ yards so far.
Northwestern will need to string together 10-play drives against a top defense that collapses early downs and limits red-zone access. The Ducks might clip the Wildcats’ whiskers and leave Evanston with a shutout.
Bet to make: New Mexico +15.5
We need to stop pretending UCLA has shown us anything that warrants laying more than two touchdowns.
UCLA’s defense has been a problem, giving up a third-down conversion rate of 70%, fourth worst in the country. That means opponents stay on the field, bleed clock and keep games close.
New Mexico is 130th in rushing yards, but that raw number doesn’t tell the whole story when you look at context. Week 1 was at Michigan, one of the best defensive fronts in the country and Scottre Humphrey had just 10 carries for 33 yards which tanked their early rushing stats.
But in Week 2 against Idaho State, we finally saw the real picture: 18 carries, 141 yards, 7.8 YPC and a 61-yard burst, which is not atypical for Humphrey. In fact, he had nine 100-yard rushing games last year.
So is it enough to buy into New Mexico’s ground game here? Against UCLA, yes. UCLA’s run defense is dead last in success rate allowed and just got gashed for 286 rushing yards by Utah and 148 more by UNLV.
This matchup actually tilts toward Humphrey being a real factor again.
The key is game script. If UCLA jumps ahead by multiple scores early, Humphrey gets neutralized, forcing Jack Layne into obvious passing downs, which is not their strength. But if New Mexico can stay within one score into the second half, Humphrey is the player who keeps them competitive.
This isn’t a volume stat issue, it’s a matchup issue, and against UCLA the door is open. Continue fading the Bruins.
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Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
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