121 losses?! The numbers behind the White Sox’s season of shame
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
The 2024 Chicago White Sox now stand alone in baseball’s hall of futility — 121 losses and counting, a staggering total too extreme to completely grasp. It’s surreal. It’s jaw-dropping. And if it had not actually happened, you might think it was impossible.
Believe it or not, this season across MLB is one of relative parity, a general regression toward the middle after a period of unusual polarization in the sport. At least that’s true at the top of the standings. For the first time since 2014, there isn’t going to be a 100-win team this season. Since 2017, there has been an average of three 100-win clubs per season.
But you won’t find parity on the South Side of Chicago. That the White Sox would set the mark in such a context underscores how remarkable it is that they’ve done what they’ve done.
That number — 121 — is bad enough, but of course Chicago has a few more days to add to it. The final number will hang like an albatross around everyone associated with the team forever, as 120 has for the 1962 New York Mets over the past six-plus decades.
The record loss total for the White Sox is the headliner, but it’s also an avatar for a whole slew of incredible numbers and the rampant dysfunction that has fueled them. Some are more or less trivial, but still pretty incredible. Some are explanatory, telling us a bit about how the White Sox have done something that should not be possible.
Here are 12 numbers — beyond 121 — that help explain the 2024 Chicago White Sox.
81.7%
The 1962 Mets lost 120 games, but, remarkably, they were fun. Even as the losses piled up, their fans embraced the expansion team. Manager Casey Stengel kept the baseball writers entertained. One of them, Jimmy Breslin, wrote a classic book about the season (“Can’t Anyone Here Play this Game?”).
There hasn’t been anything fun about this year’s White Sox, and it’s hard to see anyone wanting to write a book about them. Their fans, as they say, have stayed away in droves. The White Sox social media team threw up its hands. The ineptitude gathered so much momentum that a kind of fatalistic schadenfreude set in. When the club reached 114 losses, the Chicago Sun-Times ran a poll, asking, “At this point, are you rooting for them to break [the loss record]?”
Out of 1,450 respondents, 81.7% said they were.
7
Starting pitching has been the foundation for the White Sox’s success this season. You might scan that and see it as pure snark and, in a sense, that’s what it is. Still, Chicago’s starters as a group haven’t been tragically bad. It’s a bad rotation, but White Sox starters rank 24th in fWAR and 27th in FIP. Other teams have been worse.
Can you imagine how bad this would be if the White Sox had not gotten occasionally competent starting pitching from the likes of Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet and Jonathan Cannon? Well, you really don’t have to, because we’ve seen that team since the All-Star break.
Fedde’s seven wins are going to lead the team. That’s a remarkably low number but not unprecedented. Just last season, JP Sears and Shintaro Fujinami led Oakland with a mere five wins apiece. What’s remarkable is that Fedde is going to lead the White Sox in wins even though he was dealt at the MLB trade deadline, two months before the end of the season. His last win for Chicago was on July 10.
Fedde and Crochet rank one-two on the team in bWAR and have been flat-out good for most of the season. Crochet was a leading Cy Young candidate into June, but to protect his arm (and trade value) the White Sox curtailed his workload. He hasn’t pitched more than four innings since June 30, a span in which he has started 14 times. Well, you can’t win if you don’t go five, so Crochet’s win total has been frozen at six since he beat the Red Sox on June 7.
So, by default, the long-gone Fedde is your 2024 White Sox win champ. With seven.
12
As mentioned, the season will end with Fedde and Crochet finishing 1-2 in bWAR and wins on the 2024 White Sox. They will do those things even though neither has won a single game for Chicago since July 10. Zero. From the two best pitchers on the team.
Since Fedde’s last Chicago win, every team in baseball has gotten at least 25 wins from its starting pitchers. Except for the White Sox. Since Fedde’s last South Side victory, Chicago’s starters have gone 12-52.
This number has more than trivial value because it in part explains how the White Sox’s descent to this historic nadir accelerated as the season progressed. As bad as Chicago was, for a while it could count on being competitive at least two out of every five times through the rotation. With Crochet being forced to turn things over to a historically awful bullpen after, at most, four innings, and with Fedde donning a Cardinals uniform, those two days were lost.
20
No one has suffered the ramifications of the White Sox’s lack of options more than right-hander Chris Flexen. This figure represents the number of consecutive starts he made in a game his team went on to lose. That’s a modern record.
We could have also gone with 23. That number represents Flexen’s streak of starts without earning a winning decision, a streak that was finally snapped Thursday.
Flexen has an ERA+ of 83 (100 is league average), yet he’s going to lead the White Sox in innings pitched (160). He finished just two innings short of qualifying for the ERA title. He wouldn’t get that kind of volume on a better team, but there are pitchers this season with worse ERA+ figures and more innings. Through it all, he has been healthy and one of Chicago’s five best available starters.
Like the team around him, Flexen has been a nasty combination of subpar performance and bad luck. He has had some decent outings, including 10 quality starts. His rate of quality starts (33%) is below average, but over 30 games that should have yielded much better than a 3-15 mark. According to Baseball Reference, Flexen is tied with Fedde and Colorado’s Austin Gomber for the most games (7) in which he has exited with a lead that was blown by the bullpen.
The bottom line is what it is: Flexen finished 2024 with three wins over 30 starts. In all of baseball history, among pitchers with at least 30 starts, only three have fared as badly. Two of those were Jerry Koosman (1978 Mets, also 3-15) and Spencer Turnbull (2019 Tigers, 3-17).
The third and possibly most apt historical comp for Flexen’s record is Jack Nabors, who went 1-20 for a team the White Sox ought to keep in mind over their remaining games. We’ll get to them.
35%
That’s the White Sox’s save percentage. Yes, that 35% mark, built upon an MLB-high 37 blown saves, is the worst in baseball and it’s not close. Miami is second worst at 53%. The MLB average is 63%.
The number gets worse the more you contextualize it. According to Stathead, it’s the worst figure in a full season of the expansion era (since 1961). Since World War II, only the 1949 Cincinnati Reds (33.5%) were worse. But let’s face it, this is far more dreadful than that because bullpens play such a major role in team performance in today’s MLB.
Chicago’s relief ERA (4.77) is 29th in the majors, with only Colorado’s Coors Field-affected figure worse (5.30). The bullpen has walked 327 batters — 57 more than any other club. Only one bullpen (Toronto) has yielded more homers (82). Chicago’s starters have departed with 27 leads that were then blown by the relief staff. That’s five more than any other club.
Finally, as an homage to our Fedde note: Chicago’s save leader is Michael Kopech, with nine. No one else has more than two. And, like Fedde, Kopech was traded away at the deadline. His last White Sox save came July 10 — in relief of Fedde’s final Chicago win.
9
Triples mean nothing from an evaluative standpoint. While it’s true that fast runners tend to get more of them than slow runners, ballpark factors loom almost as large. On top of that, Guaranteed Rate Field is a poor park for triples. About the only way to get one in that park is to poke a ball into the right-field corner and hope it rattles around a bit.
Still, even in this meaningless, random category, the White Sox stand out for their failure. Chicago has nine triples all season, four fewer than any other team and fewer than or equal to the number of triples Corbin Carroll, Jarren Duran, Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Mike Yastrzemski have by themselves.
Again, this is a fluke category, but it illustrates one thing about this team: It’s not just bad. It’s boring.
$3.37M
According to salary data from Spotrac, the White Sox have baseball’s 18th-ranked total payroll allocation ($133.8 million). They’re on pace for 40 wins, a cost of $3.37 million per victory.
For as few wins as they have, the White Sox have spent more on a per-win basis than any other team but the Mets. The Yankees ($3.26 million) and Mets ($3.54 million) are sandwiched around Chicago on this leaderboard. But their costs are justified in that those clubs are, you know, winning games and playing on into October (or coming very close).
The three highest-paid White Sox and their 2024 bWAR: Yoan Moncada, $24.8M (0.3); Andrew Benintendi, $17.1M (minus-0.9); Luis Robert Jr. $12.5M (1.3).
.2353
That’s the winning percentage of the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics — the club for whom Nabors toiled — taken to four decimal places. That’s the worst in modern baseball history. The A’s went 36-117 and played a tie game, which isn’t included in their percentage calculation, as it would be in the NFL, for example. But this matters to us in 2024.
Against all odds that mattered to us in 2024, until the White Sox improbably won three straight over the Angels this week. Now the worst winning percentage the White Sox can finish with (39-123, or .241) is safely above the 1916 Athletics’ mark. Hey, at this point every positive matters.
In many respects, the 1916 A’s are very much the historical antecedent of the 2024 White Sox. Like Chicago, that Philadelphia team was very good only a couple of years prior to its nadir, having played in the 1914 World Series. Like the White Sox, that good team was subsequently dismantled to horrific results.
The 1962 Mets were an expansion club, so at least they had a built-in excuse for their foibles. Heck, the all-time loss champ, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders — who went 20-134 the season before what we consider the modern era — get a pass. The Spiders were owned by the Robison family, who also happened to own the NL team in St. Louis. After the 1898 campaign, they transferred all the good players in Cleveland over to St. Louis. That’s not something that could happen these days.
Getting to 39 means the White Sox and their remaining proud fans get the straw-grasping option of pointing at Connie Mack’s worst team and claiming that, indeed, there was a team even worse.
2
That’s the number of managers Chicago has had this season, with Grady Sizemore taking over for Pedro Grifol on an interim basis in August. As bad as things were for Grifol (28-89), Sizemore has fared even worse (11-32) given the hollowed-out roster he has to work with.
Sizemore is the 43rd manager in White Sox history, a total that includes two-game stints for interim skippers Don Cooper (2011) and Doug Rader (1986). In what might be a permanent reminder of the 2024 ChiSox, Grifol (.319) and Sizemore (.256) rank 42nd and 43rd on the franchise list for manager winning percentage.
This will remain the case even if Chicago wins its final two games.
Minus-21.5
It’s not like the White Sox entered the season with high expectations. As of March 19, as spring training began to move toward the start of the regular season, their over/under for season wins stood at 61.5, per ESPN BET. That’s a 100-loss team, and given the nature of forecasts, that is a pretty stunning baseline. Still, Oakland (57.5) and Colorado (60.5) were even lower.
The silver lining in low expectations is that they afford the opportunity to over-deliver. Indeed, the A’s are on pace for 70 wins, quite a jab in the eye at those early forecasts. The Rockies have been mostly as advertised but even they are on pace for 62 wins — a minor triumph.
The White Sox’s pace of 40 wins is 21.5 below their baseline expectation entering the season. No one else has even come close to that kind of showing. The next-biggest negative deviation from the over/under is 16.5 by the Miami Marlins.
In a nutshell, this encapsulates just how stunning this level of losing is for any team, much less the White Sox. Given some of the lowest expectations in the sport, Chicago has still managed to be baseball’s biggest disappointment.
Well, that is unless you are one of the 81.7% of respondents to that Sun-Times poll who hoped this would come to pass.
Minus-7
The White Sox’s run differential is bad. Really bad. They’re at minus-311 runs, on pace to finish at minus-317 on the season. The modern era record is minus-349, a mark set by the 1932 Red Sox and challenged by last year’s Athletics (minus-339). Chicago would have to really get hammered from here to break the record but, well, let’s just say that this is a barrel with no apparent bottom.
As it stands, the White Sox’s run differential is representative of a team that ought to win 47 games over a 162-game campaign, putting Chicago on track to finish seven wins short of its run profile. That’s the biggest disparity in baseball, with the Cubs (5.3) finishing a distant second — giving Chicago a firm grip on a leaderboard a city doesn’t want to be on even once.
That seven-win shortfall might lead the majors this season, but it’s not a record or even that historically unusual. It’s a typical number for the unfortunate leader on this leaderboard in a given season. While bad luck doesn’t entirely explain this gap — check out that section above on the bullpen — misfortune does tend to play a large role in such disparities.
So it’s not misleading to claim that not only have the White Sox been baseball’s worst team, they’ve also been the unluckiest. This is evident in other ways:
• Using injury data from Baseball Prospectus, I calculate an in-season injury index for each team based on how much time players have missed and how good those players are. The league average is 100. The team with the best injury luck has been Toronto, with an index of 116.3. The Jays have had some key injuries (Jordan Romano and Bo Bichette, to name two) but the team’s overall volume of games missed has been low.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Dodgers at 84.3. L.A.’s injury woes, particularly when it comes to its rotation, have been well chronicled. The White Sox have an injury index of 89.9, ranking 27th. So, not only have Chicago’s key contributors struggled, they’ve also been injured a lot. There’s a joke about bad food/small portions in there somewhere.
• The Statcast leaderboards also underscore Chicago’s misfortune. White Sox hitters have the biggest disparities between actual and expected results, based on quality of contact, average, slugging and WOBA. It’s a clean sweep.
Meanwhile, Chicago pitchers are only tied for the biggest disparity between actual and expected WOBA allowed.
Look, you don’t get to 121 losses by being merely bad, though obviously that is a prerequisite. You also have to be unlucky. Across the board, Chicago has labored in futility and misfortune alike.
In short, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.
274
Monday, Sept. 30, will be the 274th day of the year 2024 on the Gregorian calendar. The MLB regular season will come to an end. Come next spring, the White Sox begin a new season with a clean slate, every one of those 121 (and counting) losses confined to the history books.
For the White Sox, this winter and the seasons to come will determine whether getting a fresh start is, for them, actually a good thing. They can at least take solace in this: Historically speaking, it can’t get worse.
Can it?
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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