MLB playoff preview: World Series odds, keys to success and predicted date of doom for all 12 teams
The 2024 MLB playoffs are here!
Starting with this week’s wild-card series (beginning Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. ET on ABC), it’s sure to be another thrilling October of postseason baseball. We’ve got you covered with everything you need to know, from the first pitch of the playoffs to the final out of the World Series.
After the regular season ended with no 100-win team for the first time in a decade, this October appears wide open. Will Shohei Ohtani‘s first playoff appearance end in a World Series title for the Los Angeles Dodgers? Will the Philadelphia Phillies power through the playoffs? Or will we see another unexpected run through the National League? Will the New York Yankees go from the American League’s No. 1 seed to the World Series — or will the Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles or one of the AL Central surprise teams get in their way?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team’s last game and a name to watch for all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Passan’s World Series pick | Insider playoff intel | Bracket | ESPN BET: Odds & more
Jump to a team:
NYY | CLE | HOU | BAL | KC | DET
LAD | PHI | MIL | SD | ATL | NYM
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-66 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Royals/Orioles (62% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 19.4% | ESPN BET odds: +425
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Let’s not get too cute here: It has to be Aaron Judge or Juan Soto, since they’ve carried the Yankees all season. It’s hard to imagine New York winning without those two producing. Judge hasn’t been great in his postseason career (.211 average, .772 OPS); Soto was terrific as a 20-year-old for the Nationals in 2019 (especially in the World Series) but didn’t do much for the Padres in 2022. Let’s go with Judge, since he’ll have plenty of RBI opportunities if Soto is getting on base in front of him. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … They don’t play sound, fundamental baseball. The Yankees have premier talent highlighted by three superstars: Judge, Soto and Gerrit Cole. They can pitch and they can really hit. But they also have a propensity to get sloppy on defense, depend too much on the home run and make puzzling mistakes on the basepaths — they rank last in the majors in baserunning, according to FanGraphs. Every out and every run counts that much more in the postseason. An ability to give outs away and an inability to manufacture runs against elite pitching can haunt even the most talented teams in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The love affair between Soto and the greater New York City metropolis prolonged through the summer and will spill into the fall. Presumptions that Soto and his massive persona would be an ideal fit for the outsized stakes of baseball in the Bronx have been validated by a dominant season overshadowed only by that of his own teammate. But as Judge can attest, Yankees legends are made exclusively in October. And though his performance in prior postseason stints with the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres has been spotty, nobody likes the spotlight more than Juan José Soto. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Even if the Yankees aren’t your cup of tea, there is no denying that dynamic duos such as Judge and Soto are a historical rarity. According to Baseball Reference’s batting runs above average metric, the five highest single-season totals for teammates have been four Lou Gehrig-Babe Ruth seasons, and the 2024 tandem of Soto and Judge. More than a simple stacking of two Hall of Fame-level hitters, there is something about the back-to-back pairing of them in the nightly Yankees lineup that is somehow even greater than the considerable sum of their parts. With Soto reaching free agency whenever New York’s postseason run ends, there is no guarantee we’ll see this again. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 92-69 | AL Central champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers/Astros (51.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 9.8% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Can we just pick the entire bullpen? No? Four relievers have won a World Series MVP (Larry Sherry, Rollie Fingers, John Wetteland and Mariano Rivera) so don’t rule out Emmanuel Clase. Indeed, while Jose Ramirez is the obvious choice, his game hasn’t translated to the postseason, with just two home runs in 124 at-bats. Let’s go with Clase; if Cleveland wins, it’s probably because he gets four World Series saves. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The starting rotation isn’t good enough. Cleveland posted the best bullpen ERA in baseball by a substantial margin. Clase has been the best closer in the majors. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin might be the sport’s stoutest bridge to the ninth inning. The rotation is another matter. No. 1 starter Shane Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery after two starts. Triston McKenzie, two years removed from a breakout season, performed so poorly he was sent to Triple-A in June and hasn’t returned to the majors. Without them, Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA in 31 starts) emerged as the top starter for a rotation that finished tied for 23rd in ERA and 24th innings pitched. The Guardians will need to piece together the pitching to make a title run. But too much reliance on the bullpen might be unsustainable. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Guardians acquired Lane Thomas before the trade deadline hoping he would fortify an offense in perpetual need of production. August was brutal, but Thomas showed what he’s capable of amid a torrid month of September. He has been hitting mostly behind Josh Naylor, but also in front of Ramirez at times. His presence will be critical in October. The Guardians finished in the middle of the pack in OPS and runs per game this season. They need someone besides Ramirez, Naylor and Steven Kwan to produce consistently. They need the Lane Thomas who provided 28 home runs and a .783 OPS for last year’s Washington Nationals. He might have tapped back into that. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: 1948. That’s when Lou Boudreau, Larry Doby, Satchel Paige, Bob Feller & Co. led Cleveland to the World Series. Good times. Harry Truman was president. Jack Kerouac was gallivanting around the country with Neal Cassady. Don Draper was still living as Dick Whitman, years away from landing on Madison Avenue. The franchise has not won it all since then, giving it the longest active title drought in baseball. This team, with an offense that has contact, athleticism and just enough power, and armed with the sport’s best bullpen, is built to quench that thirst. To do so, the Guardians will have to topple some superstars — Judge, Ohtani among the possibilities — which would make it that much sweeter to watch. — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 88-73 | AL West champs
Wild-card opponent: Tigers (65.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 8.1% | ESPN BET odds: +800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 12
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Jeremy Pena was the MVP when the Astros won it all in 2022, as Yordan Álvarez hit just .130 in that World Series. Alvarez did hit the decisive home run in Game 6, however, and he has generally been a force in his postseason career (.949 OPS). After a slow start in April and May, he has been crushing it since June. As long as he can overcome his late-season knee injury, he’s the pick here. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Álvarez doesn’t return from his knee sprain healthy enough to supply his usual production — if he returns at all. Don’t let their final record fool you: The Astros, even without Álvarez, might be the team to beat in the American League. After starting 15-25, they finished the season a league-best 73-48. They boast five starting pitchers peaking at the right time (and that doesn’t include the struggling Justin Verlander). They have a top-tier bullpen. Their offense is peppered with proven postseason performers. But Álvarez is their most frightening hitter. The star slugger led the team in batting average (.308), home runs (35), RBI (86), and fWAR (5.2). His 168 wRC+ tied for fourth in the majors among qualified players. And he has been a terror for opposing pitchers in October, batting .295 with 12 home runs and a .949 OPS in 58 career postseason games. The Astros’ pitching might be good enough to take them to their eighth straight ALCS. But a healthy Álvarez could be the difference. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Astros signed Ronel Blanco for $5,000 as a 22-year-old out of the Dominican eight years ago. They placed him in their Opening Day rotation as a placeholder because the rest of the staff was in flux. Then they watched him throw a no-hitter on the first day of April and anchor a staff that was decimated by injuries for most of the ensuing six months. Now Blanco will venture into October as a key player for an Astros team hoping to extend its run of consecutive ALCS appearances to eight, be it as a starter or as a reliever. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Astros give us something we can count on. Sure, we might not always love the way they go about it, but Houston is as constant as death, taxes and “The Simpsons.” The Astros are bidding to reach the LCS round for an eighth straight year, making them a 21st-century version of the old Yankees dynasty. Teams just aren’t supposed to sustain success like this, not in the 2020s. Through it all, Houston has maintained its air of swagger and inevitability. If you admire consistency, you have to admire the Astros, and our time to appreciate this run might finally be running out. Well, maybe. —Doolittle
1:48
What will be the keys to the Tigers-Astros wild-card series?
Jeff Passan, Buster Olney and Tim Kurkjian analyze the pitching in the Tigers’ wild-card matchup against the Astros.
No. 4 seed | 91-71 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Royals (59.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 10
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Anthony Santander has had a quiet 44-homer season, that’s for sure. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, he’s not a strikeout-prone hacker up there: He actually whiffs less often than teammate Gunnar Henderson. The switch-hitter has also been effective from both sides of the plate. That could translate nicely in October, especially if he locks in like he did in June and July, when he slugged 22 home runs with a .973 OPS. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The offense doesn’t snap out of its late-season funk. The Orioles’ pitching staff has significant question marks. Injuries have pillaged the starting rotation. The bullpen has been in disarray. That means the offense needs to wake up after ranking 20th in runs scored since Aug. 1. Recent reinforcements should help, but it starts with Adley Rutschman. While Henderson should finish in the top five in AL MVP voting and Santander cracked the fifth-most home runs ever for a switch-hitter, Rutschman slogged through a dismal second half. While Henderson should finish in the top five in AL MVP voting and Santander cracked the fifth-most home runs ever for a switch-hitter, Rutschman slogged through a dismal second half. The catcher was batting .300 with 15 home runs and an .830 OPS in 348 plate appearances through June 28, a start good enough to warrant his second straight All-Star nod. After that, he batted .189 with four home runs and a .559 OPS in 290 plate appearances for the remainder of the regular season. He remained in the 2-hole most nights despite the struggles. The Orioles won’t play deep into October if he doesn’t reverse course. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Any hopes that Grayson Rodriguez might return before season’s end were dashed last week, when the Orioles announced he would be shut down with the right lat/teres strain that had kept him out since early August. Rodriguez is the fourth Orioles starter who has been ruled out for 2024, along with Kyle Brash, John Means and Tyler Wells, all of whom underwent surgery to repair damaged ulnar collateral ligaments. So, as if there were ever any doubt, it’s Corbin Burnes‘ time to shine. The 29-year-old right-hander has been everything the Orioles could have hoped for since coming over from the Milwaukee Brewers via trade on the first day of February. Now he’ll look to carry a beleaguered starting rotation in October. His performance will have as direct an impact on Baltimore’s chances as anyone’s. It’ll also go a long way toward determining the type of contract he gets in free agency. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: There has never been a World Series game played at Camden Yards. This needs to change. This is the 33rd season for one of baseball’s best venues, and so far, its World Series game count is zilch. The only Series-less ballpark with more quiet late Octobers was the Astrodome, which never hosted a Fall Classic in 35 years. Camden Yards is one of the sport’s crown jewels, once at the vanguard of one of baseball’s golden ages of stadium construction, built long before the current model of parks serving as anchors for real estate developments even more than as places for baseball to happen. We need overhead shots of this park with World Series-level media production and frenzy. Also, the Orioles haven’t won a championship in a long time. –– Doolittle
1:44
Passan: ‘The future is now’ in Royals-Orioles matchup
The “Baseball Tonight” crew marvels at the superstar shortstop showdown between Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson when the Royals and Orioles face off.
No. 5 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Orioles (40.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.3% | ESPN BET odds: +2500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Bobby Witt Jr. would be the apparent choice, although he slowed down a bit in September after his ridiculously high level of play throughout the summer and opponents might force others in the lineup to beat them. Let’s go with Salvador Perez, the sentimental pick here. He had a nice postseason the last time the Royals were in it back in 2015, slugging .517 with four home runs for the World Series champions. He’s a better hitter now than he was then (although nobody chases more than Perez), and he won’t be catching every game this time either. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The starting pitching doesn’t mask the bullpen’s shortcomings. The Royals (barely) completed their remarkable 30-win year-to-year turnaround behind their elite starting pitching, which finished second in baseball in both ERA and innings pitched. The bullpen is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 23st in ERA and near the bottom in win probability added. The Royals, who enter the playoffs without a designated closer, tried bolstering the bullpen by acquiring Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, two right-handers with high strikeout rates, before the trade deadline. Erceg was effective in a few roles, including closer, but Harvey was placed on the injured list after six appearances with Kansas City and won’t pitch again in 2024. Wild-card teams have made World Series runs in recent years with shallow bullpens by aggressively deploying starting pitchers. That’s a possibility for Kansas City. But at least a few relievers will need to step up. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Don’t forget how this stirring Royals season began: Witt, their homegrown superstar, signed a massive contract extension that officially made him the face of their franchise. Then he went out and continued to play excellent shortstop defense, mash a bunch of homers, run like his hair was on fire and put together an age-24 season that would have been worthy of an MVP if not for the exploits of Aaron Judge. Now we’ll all have the joy of watching one of baseball’s budding superstars perform on its grandest stage. The Royals will probably go as Witt goes, especially if Vinnie Pasquantino can’t make it back from his broken thumb. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: What’s your favorite type of fairy tale? Rags to riches? Ugliness transforms to beauty? The hero emerges to save the day? The Royals have it all. Witt’s historic season has been the face of the Royals’ remarkable turnaround in 2024, but there is so much more to Kansas City’s stunning rise. How about old-school starting pitching? How about top defenders all over the field? The Royals aren’t just a great story — they’re really fun to watch. Beyond all that, it’s easy for bad teams to hide behind their badness as a reason to not invest in the roster. Certainly, that has happened in Kansas City in the past, but not this time. Trying isn’t the whole story, but it is an unavoidable first step. If they keep winning, this lesson becomes that much more abject. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Astros (34.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.7% | ESPN BET odds: +3000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Somebody who steps up to carry the offense. Parker Meadows was so bad early on (.131 average in 35 games) that the Tigers sent him back down to the minors. After being called back up in August, he put up an OPS over .800 the final two months and cut his strikeout rate from 35% to 20%. Throw in some excellent defense in center field (88th percentage in outs above average) and he has a chance to create big plays on both sides of the ball. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Tarik Skubal runs out of gas. The Tigers mounted their incredible run to a playoff spot behind the best second-half ERA in baseball. Skubal, the overwhelming AL Cy Young favorite, fronted the charge with dominance every five days. The left-hander became the seventh pitcher since 2000 to win a league’s pitching Triple Crown, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings. Skubal logged at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts, which allowed manager A.J. Hinch to regularly increase bullpen usage on days Skubal didn’t pitch — especially after Jack Flaherty was traded at the deadline. No other Tigers pitcher logged more than 112 1/3 innings this season. For the formula to work in October, Skubal must remain a workhorse. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Spencer Torkelson struggled throughout the year and Colt Keith was up and down, but two other promising young Tigers position players have blossomed this season: Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Greene, the fifth overall pick in 2019, made the All-Star team and gave the offense some much-needed pop. Carpenter, a steal in the 19th round of the same draft, surged through April and May, missed the next two-plus months with a back injury and then picked up right where he left off. Both were red hot in September. Both must continue to be in order to support the Tigers’ pitching staff. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s face it: You don’t have any idea what this team is doing in an October bracket. To call the Tigers a Cinderella team is too easy; Detroit’s rise has been flat-out shocking, and if you say you saw it coming, you are either fibbing or your name is Nostradamus. In five weeks, the Tigers improved their playoff probability from 1% to 100%. That just doesn’t happen. If Detroit gets walloped in the wild-card round, maybe they’re just another team that got hot long enough to squeeze into a bloated playoff structure. But wouldn’t it be more fun if they kept this going? — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 95-64 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Braves/Padres (57.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 17.3% | ESPN BET odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … If you want the storybook ending to the 2024 playoffs, it will be Shohei Ohtani — playing in his first postseason. But let’s go with Freddie Freeman, who seems to have the style of hitting that works well in October, the right combination of discipline, contact and power. He’s a career .285 hitter in the postseason with an OPS over .900 and got a hit in all six World Series games for the Braves in 2021. Ohtani and Mookie Betts will get the spotlight, but Freeman — as long as his late-season ankle injury isn’t serious — can put the Dodgers over the top. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Their superstars don’t produce. The number of injuries to the Dodgers’ starting rotation is alarming. But the rotation was also a concern last year and it ultimately wasn’t the reason they were stunned by the Diamondbacks in a three-game NLDS sweep. Los Angeles gave up four runs in each of the final two games. The Dodgers scored two. A year earlier, the Dodgers combined to score 12 runs in a four-game NLDS loss to the Padres. Betts is 2-for-25 over the past two postseasons. Freeman went 1-for-10 last year. Ohtani just recorded one of the most impressive seasons in history and will win NL MVP, but he has never played in the MLB postseason. The Dodgers aren’t going anywhere if their stars go silent. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ohtani played the 866th game of his career on the night of Sept. 19, at that point the most among active players who had yet to appear in baseball’s postseason. He proceeded to — as you’ve probably heard by now — put together one of the greatest single-game performances ever while on his way to starting the 50/50 club and leading the Dodgers to a playoff clinch. While he languished in Anaheim over these past six years, fans all over the world longed to see Ohtani play meaningful games on baseball’s grandest stage. And if the 2023 World Baseball Classic was any indication for what that might feel like, they’re in for quite a ride. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s see if we can get through this without mentioning Ohtani. (Oops!) Well, let’s just call it historical validation. The Dodgers, since 2013, have sustained a high level of success that has rarely been replicated in baseball annals. For all of that dominance, they have ended just one season with a win and that title — 2020 — is always going to have a “yeah, but …” attached to it. The Dodgers have been one of the game’s great dynasties, but they probably need a championship in a normal season for people to remember them as such. –– Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 95-67 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Mets/Brewers (60.9% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 19.2% | ESPN BET odds: +425
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Starting pitchers rarely win World Series MVP honors these days — only Stephen Strasburg in 2019, Madison Bumgarner in 2014 and Cole Hamels in 2008 have won in the past 20 years — but Wheeler would be the best bet to do it this postseason. He has been great for a long time and just had his best regular season. He has performed well the past two postseasons (2.42 ERA). He’s efficient enough to pitch deep enough into games to impress the voters. Just don’t expect any complete games (Johnny Cueto threw the last in the World Series in 2015). — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Rust trumps rest. OK, so that can’t really be a reason. Or can it? The Phillies are as well rounded as any team in baseball. They have a top-flight starting rotation, bullpen and offense. They boast a veteran roster that has experienced it all. This team is better than the Philly teams that advanced to the World Series in 2022 and fell one game short of returning in 2023. Both times the Phillies were a wild-card entrant, and both times they toppled the mighty Braves, the NL East champs, in the NLDS. This time, the Phillies will benefit from (or be hindered by?) a bye to the NLDS after winning their first division title since 2011. They will not roll from the regular season straight into October madness. Will that matter? It’s a debate waged every year. Maybe it will for the Phillies. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: What might separate this Phillies team from other great ones of recent years is the depth of the pitching staff, with five members making the 2024 All-Star team. Nobody embodies that better than Cristopher Sanchez, the 27-year-old right-hander who has shown he can hold up over a full season. Sanchez, who made just one brief start in last year’s postseason, has been mostly dominant since the middle of August. He has been especially good at home, making him a logical candidate to start as early as Game 2 of the division series. Regardless of the venue, he and Ranger Suarez will have to step up behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola when the lights get brightest. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Bryce Harper, full stop. OK, Harper is a polarizing player to some, for reasons that aren’t readily apparent. Still, he’s a great, great player, a future Hall of Famer who goes about things the right way, and greatness is always worth appreciating. Harper has excellent career postseason numbers, especially for the Phillies portion of his career, but he is stuck on zero rings. The Phillies have a lot of terrific players who play hard looking for their first title, but it’s Harper more than anyone who needs a ring to fill out his impeccable résumé. — Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Mets (56.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.6% | ESPN BET odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Willy Adames led the Brewers in home runs and RBIs and tied Ken Griffey Jr.’s major league record with 13 three-run home runs in one season. For the season, he hit .293 with a 1.065 OPS with runners in scoring position. For the Brewers to win, Adames must continue his clutch hitting with men on base. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The bullpen finally falters. The Brewers’ elite relief corps improved as the season went along. The group’s 3.11 ERA for the season was second in baseball — and its 2.70 ERA since Aug. 1 was even better. The strong finish correlates with Devin Williams‘ participation. The closer registered a 1.25 ERA and converted 14 of 15 save chances after making his season debut July 28. He allowed runs in two of his 22 appearances — and didn’t allow any over his last 13 innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starters logged the fifth-fewest innings in baseball while recording the 17th-best ERA. Veteran right-hander Freddy Peralta has been steady. Rookie right-hander Tobias Myers was a revelation. But starting pitching was never going to be the Brewers’ strength after losing Brandon Woodruff for the season and trading Corbin Burnes in February. In short, Milwaukee’s playoff run will be abbreviated if Williams and the rest of the crew don’t continue pitching well. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Brewers gave Jackson Chourio an eight-year, $82 million contract in December, before he had even set foot in the major leagues. They put the 20-year-old outfielder on their Opening Day roster, watched him struggle through the first two months and never sent him down. Then he started to show why he merited such unwavering trust at such a young age. He took control of his at-bats, learned how to quiet his surroundings in pressure situations, displayed versatility with his speed and defense, and put together a historic season in his own right. Chourio became the first player to record 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases before his 21st birthday, leading a Brewers offense that has been among the sport’s best despite not boasting many big names. With Christian Yelich out, the pressure will be largely on Chourio to produce in October. The Brewers believe he’ll be up for it. They always have. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Why *shouldn’t* you root for the Brewers, especially if your favorite team isn’t in the hunt? Milwaukee just wins, year in, year out, even as it transitions front office leaders, managers and, especially, the players in the clubhouse. This kind of sustained efficiency warrants attention. Beyond that, the Brewers have transitioned into something different than they were even a year ago. Their lineup is now driven by the most athletic position group in the majors. The pitching staff is no longer reliant on a rotation big three and instead features a made-for-October roster of bullpen depth and versatility. On top of all that, a career baseball guy, Pat Murphy, is leading the way in his first full shot at the big chair. You got to root for Murph. — Doolittle
San Diego Padres
No. 4 seed | 93-69 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Braves (54.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.7% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Manny Machado got off to a slow start at the plate as he recovered from offseason elbow surgery (hitting .241 with five home runs through May). As the offense surged in the second half, however, Machado crushed it, averaging nearly an RBI per game. He hasn’t been great in the postseason — .221 average with a .274 OBP in 41 games — so maybe he’s due for a big October. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Robert Suárez‘s recent struggles bleed into the postseason. The Padres arguably had the best bullpen in baseball once they acquired Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. But Suárez hasn’t played his part of dominant closer over the final two months. Suárez, an All-Star, had a 1.42 ERA, .517 OPS against, and 24 saves in 27 chances across 44 appearances through Aug. 7. Over his next 20 outings, he posted a 5.66 ERA with a .752 OPS against and three blown saves in 15 save opportunities. He probably would’ve had another blown save if Miguel Rojas hadn’t grounded into a game-ending triple play with Shohei Ohtani on deck on Sept. 24. It’s been choppy for Suárez, but the Padres have stuck with him in the ninth inning. The leash could be shorter in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Padres had the audacity to take a 20-year-old lifetime shortstop who hadn’t played above Double-A, tell him to learn center field and ask him to help make up for the loss of Juan Soto. And Jackson Merrill has had the audacity to do more than even the most optimistic of folks could have expected from him. Merrill, now 21, has played an elite center field and has been an even better hitter, providing power and speed and a knack for coming through in clutch situations — an element that famously eluded last season’s group. He might win the Rookie of the Year despite Paul Skenes‘ transformative season in Pittsburgh. But first, he’ll star in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Maybe it’s hard to watch a game and root for an executive, but when it comes to assertive roster-building, no one does it with more alacrity than A.J. Preller. No matter where the Padres are or what they have to spend, he pursues titles with the zeal of a Swiftie on the trail of a beaded bracelet. This year’s team was built for this moment, especially when it comes to the powerhouse collection of closer-level relievers Preller has collected during his manic searches of the transaction market. The Padres are one of the five MLB teams that have never won a World Series. Thanks to Preller, they might be better positioned to exit that list than ever before. — Doolittle
No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card
Wild card opponent: Padres (45.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | ESPN Bet odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Hey, if Corey Seager can win two World Series MVP trophies (with the Dodgers in 2020 and last season with the Rangers), why not Jorge Soler? He won with the Braves in 2021 when he hit three home runs — all in Atlanta victories, including the go-ahead three-run homer in the clincher. Now back with the Braves after a deadline trade with the Giants, Soler is swinging the bat well — just like he did in 2021 when the Braves got him from the Royals. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The top half of the lineup doesn’t produce. The Braves’ offense is still relatively deep for a group that lost Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley are out for the season. Marcell Ozuna had a career year and should finish in the top five in NL MVP voting. Michael Harris II batted .291 with 11 home runs and an .846 OPS in 41 games after missing two months with a strained hamstring. Ozzie Albies returned from the injured list in late September. Matt Olson looked like his old self in August and September after a dreadful first four months. Jorge Soler, the Braves’ 2021 World Series MVP, rejoined the team at the trade deadline to crack nine home runs in 44 games. Those five hitters must produce enough to complement one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. If they do, Atlanta could make a run reminiscent of 2021. If not, it could mean an early exit. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Braves’ pitching plans were dealt a major blow on Monday, when it was revealed that Chris Sale, the likely NL Cy Young winner, is dealing with back spasms and will be unavailable in the upcoming wild-card round. Max Fried‘s importance has become even greater now. The last time Fried took the mound, he twirled 8 2/3 shutout innings against the resurgent Royals on Friday. He now lines up to pitch on normal rest in Game 2 of the wild-card series. Fried, a free agent at season’s end, was at his best down the stretch, posting a 2.14 ERA over his last five starts. Given how taxed their staff is at this point, the Braves desperately need more of that from their longtime ace. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: If you don’t think teams should use injuries as an excuse for not winning, then the Braves are your club. Of course, Atlanta already proved this in 2021 when they won the World Series even though Acuna was on the shelf with a knee injury. Flash forward to now, and the Braves can make it happen again. Only this time, in addition to Acuna being out, Atlanta enters the playoffs without preseason Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider and All-Star third baseman Riley. If the Braves can win with that much star power on the IL, truly there are no more excuses for anybody else. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Brewers (43.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.1% | ESPN BET odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Pete Alonso is heading to free agency, and the fan favorite belongs in the Big Apple for his entire career. What better way to ensure a return to the Mets than winning World Series MVP honors? It was an up-and-down regular season for him, but he’s certainly capable of bashing some big home runs hitting in the middle of a Mets lineup that was second in the majors in runs scored since June 12. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Francisco Lindor struggles to play through back pain. Lindor was Ohtani’s closest competition for NL MVP until his back flared up on Sept. 13. He played just one inning over the next 13 days before returning to the Mets’ lineup Friday. Neither Lindor nor the Mets have disclosed a diagnosis, but Lindor said testing showed “no structural damage” and he received a facet injection two Thursdays ago to expedite the healing process. The Mets went 6-6 without him to stay afloat, but October will be different. Lindor is the team’s heartbeat. He’s their leadoff hitter, shortstop, and clubhouse leader. He does the three jobs at an elite level. Winning playoff series without a healthy Lindor would be a tall task. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: If the Mets are going to make a surprisingly deep run in October, it’s going to take a lot of work from their pitching staff. The weather conditions that prompted a doubleheader in what was supposed to be an off-day on Monday guaranteed that. And nobody will be more important than Sean Manaea, who was roughed up in a key start against the Brewers on Friday but has nonetheless experienced experienced something of a renaissance. After back-to-back years with bloated ERAs in San Diego and San Francisco, Manaea went back to featuring his sinker instead of his four-seamer and has been perhaps the most astute addition in David Stearns’ first year atop baseball operations. Manaea seems all but certain to opt out of his two-year contract at season’s end. Before then, the 32-year-old left-hander will help lead a Mets rotation that might not get Kodai Senga back. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Sustainability. The Mets aren’t exactly a bargain team, but they are a little leaner compared with last season. Stearns has built a more efficient, deeper roster and made sure the Mets’ younger players got a chance to establish themselves at the big league level. Over the years, the Mets have tended to be less sustainable and more reckless, which can be fun but wearisome. You’d like to see the new approach pay off in October because, if it does, and you consider this model as a foundation to justify some ramped-up spending to come, you can start to ponder a new golden age in Mets baseball. That’s worth rooting for, though, admittedly, that might work for you only if you already root for the Mets. Smart management is always fun! — Doolittle
The NHL’s board of governors and the NHLPA’s membership have ratified a new collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA runs through the end of the 2025-26 season, with the new one carrying through the end of the 2029-30 season.
While the continuation of labor peace is the most important development for a league that has endured multiple work stoppages this millennium, there are a number of wrinkles that are noteworthy to fans.
ESPN reporters Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski break it all down for you here:
Draft recap: All 224 picks
Grades for all 32 teams
Winners and losers
When does this new CBA take effect?
The new NHL CBA is set to begin on Sept. 16, 2026 and runs through Sept. 15, 2030. Including the coming season, that gives the NHL five years of labor peace, and would make the fastest both sides have reached an extension in Gary Bettman’s tenure as NHL commissioner.
It’s also the first major negotiation for NHLPA head Marty Walsh, who stepped into the executive director role in 2023 — Shilton
What are the big differences in the new CBA compared to the current one?
There are a few major headlines from the new CBA.
First are the schedule changes: the league will move to an 84-game regular season, with a shortened preseason (a maximum of four games), so each team is still able to play every opponent while divisional rivals have four games against one another every other season.
There will also be alterations to contract lengths, going to a maximum seven-year deal instead of the current eight-year mark; right now, a player can re-sign for eight years with his own team or seven with another in free agency, while the new CBA stipulates it’ll be seven or six years, respectively.
Deferred salaries will also be on the way out. And there will be a new position established for a team’s full-time emergency backup goaltender — or EBUG — where that player can practice and travel with the team.
The CBA also contains updated language on long-term injured reserve and how it can be used, particularly when it comes to adding players from LTIR to the roster for the postseason — Shilton
What’s the motivation for an 84-game season?
The new CBA expands the regular season to 84 games and reduces the exhibition season to four games per team. Players with 100 games played in their NHL careers can play in a maximum of two exhibition games. Players who competed in at least 50 games in the previous season will have a maximum of 13 days of training camp.
The NHL had an 84-game season from 1992 to 1994, when the league and NHLPA agreed to add two neutral-site games to every team’s schedule. But since 1995-96, every full NHL regular season has been 82 games.
For at least the past four years, the league has had internal discussions about adding two games to the schedule while decreasing the preseason. The current CBA restricted teams from playing more than 82 games, so expansion of the regular season required collective bargaining.
There was a functional motivation behind the increase in games: Currently, each team plays either three or four games against divisional opponents, for a total of 26 games; they play three games against non-divisional teams within their own conference, for a total of 24 games; and they play two games, home and away, against opponents from the other conference for a total of 32 games. Adding two games would allow teams to even out their divisional schedule, while swapping in two regular-season games — with regular-season crowd sizes and prices — for two exhibition games.
The reduction of the preseason would also give the NHL the chance to start the regular season earlier, perhaps in the last week of September. Obviously, given the grind of the current regular season and the playoffs, there’s concern about wear and tear on the players with two additional games. But the reduction of training camp and the exhibition season was appealing to players, and they signed off on the 84-game season in the new CBA. — Wyshynski
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How do the new long-term injured reserve rules work?
The practice of teams using long-term injured reserve (LTIR) to create late-season salary cap space — only to have the injured player return for the first game of the playoffs after sitting out game No. 82 of the regular season — tracks back to 2015. That’s when the Chicago Blackhawks used an injured Patrick Kane‘s salary cap space to add players at the trade deadline. Kane returned for the start of the first round, and eventually won the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP in their Stanley Cup win.
Since then, the NHL has seen teams such as the Tampa Bay Lightning (Nikita Kucherov 2020-21), Vegas Golden Knights (Mark Stone, 2023), Florida Panthers (Matthew Tkachuk, 2024) also use LTIR to their advantage en route to Stanley Cup wins.
The NHL has investigated each occurrence of teams using LTIR and then having players return for the playoffs, finding nothing actionable — although the league is currently investigating the Edmonton Oilers use of LTIR for Evander Kane, who sat out the regular season and returned in the first round of the most recent postseason.
Last year, NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly said that if “the majority” of general managers wanted a change to this practice, the NHL would consider it. Some players weren’t happy about the salary cap loophole.
Ron Hainsey, NHLPA assistant executive director, said during the Stanley Cup Final that players have expressed concern at different times “either public or privately” about misuse of long-term injured reserve. He said that the NHL made closing that loophole “a priority for them” in labor talks.
Under the new CBA, the total salary and bonuses for “a player or players” that have replaced a player on LTIR may not exceed the amount of total salary and bonuses of the player they are replacing. For example: In 2024, the Golden Knights put winger Stone and his $9.5 million salary on LTIR, given that he was out because of a lacerated spleen. The Golden Knights added $10.8 million in salary to their cap before the trade deadline in defenseman Noah Hanifin and forwards Tomas Hertl and Anthony Mantha.
But the bigger tweak to the LTIR rule states that “the average amounts of such replacement player(s) may not exceed the prior season’s average league salary.” According to PuckPedia, the average player salary last season was $3,817,293, for example.
The CBA does allow an exception to these LTIR rules, with NHL and NHLPA approval, based on how much time the injured player is likely to miss. Teams can exceed these “average amounts,” but the injured player would be ineligible to return that season or in the postseason.
But the NHL and NHLPA doubled-down on discouraging teams from abusing LTIR to go over the salary cap in the Stanley Cup playoffs by establishing “playoff cap counting” for the first time. — Wyshynski
What is ‘playoff cap counting’ and how will it affect the postseason?
In 2021, the Carolina Hurricanes lost to Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That’s when defenseman Dougie Hamilton famously lamented that his team fell to a Lightning squad “that’s $18 million over the cap or whatever they are,” as Tampa Bay used Kucherov’s LTIR space in the regular season before he returned for the playoffs.
Even more famously, Kucherov wore a T-shirt that read “$18M OVER THE CAP” during their Stanley Cup championship celebration.
The NHL and NHLPA have attempted to put an end to this creative accounting — in combination with the new LTIR rules in the regular season — through a new CBA provision called “playoff cap counting.”
By 3 p.m. local time or five hours before a playoff game — whatever is earlier — teams will submit a roster of 18 players and two goaltenders to NHL Central Registry. There will be a “playoff playing roster averaged club salary” calculated for that roster that must be under the “upper limit” of the salary cap for that team. The “averaged club salary” is the sum of the face value averaged amounts of the player salary and bonuses for that season for each player on the roster, and all amounts charged to the team’s salary cap.
Teams can make changes to their rosters after that day’s deadline, provided they’ve cleared it with NHL Central Registry.
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The “upper limit” for an individual team is the leaguewide salary cap ceiling minus any cap penalties for contract buyouts; 35-plus players or players with one-way contracts demoted to the minor leagues; retained salary in trades; cap recapture penalties; or contract grievance settlements.
The cap compliance is only for the players participating in a given postseason game. As one NHL player agent told ESPN: “You can have $130 million in salaries on your total roster once the playoffs start, but the 18 players and two goalies that are on the ice must be cap-compliant.”
These rules will be in effect for the first two seasons of the new CBA (2026-28). After that, either the NHL or the NHLPA can reopen this section of the CBA for “good faith discussions about the concerns that led to the election to reopen and whether these rules could be modified in a manner that would effectively address such concerns.”
If there’s no resolution of those concerns, the “playoff cap counting” will remain in place for the 2028-29 season. — Wyshynski
Did the NHL CBA make neck guards mandatory?
Professional leagues around the world have adjusted their player equipment protection standards since Adam Johnson’s death in October 2023. Johnson, 29, was playing for the Nottingham Panthers of England’s Elite Ice Hockey League when he suffered a neck laceration from an opponent’s skate blade.
The AHL mandated cut-resistant neck protection for players and officials for the 2024-25 season. The IIHF did the same for international tournaments, while USA Hockey required all players under the age of 18 to wear them.
Now, the NHL and NHLPA have adjusted their standards for neck protection in the new CBA.
Beginning with the 2026-27 season, players who have zero games of NHL experience will be required to wear “cut-resistant protection on the neck area with a minimum cut level protection score of A5.” The ANSI/ISEA 105-2016 Standard rates neck guards on a scale from A1 to A9, and players are encouraged to seek out neck protection that’s better than the minimal requirement.
Players with NHL experience prior to the 2026-27 season will not be required to wear neck protection. — Wyshynski
What’s the new player dress code?
The NHL and NHLPA agreed that teams will no longer be permitted “to propose any rules concerning player dress code.”
Under the previous CBA, the NHL was the only North American major men’s pro sports league with a dress code specified through collective bargaining. Exhibit 14, Rule 5 read: “Players are required to wear jackets, ties and dress pants to all Club games and while traveling to and from such games unless otherwise specified by the Head Coach or General Manager.”
That rule was deleted in the new CBA.
The only requirement now for players is that they “dress in a manner that is consistent with contemporary fashion norms.”
Sorry, boys: No toga parties on game days. — Wyshynski
Does the new CBA cover the Olympics beyond 2026?
Yes. The NHL and NHLPA have committed to participate in the 2030 Winter Olympics, scheduled to be held in the French Alps. As usual, the commitment is ” subject to negotiation of terms acceptable to each of the NHL, NHLPA, IIHF and/or IOC.”
And as we saw with the 2022 Beijing Games, having a commitment in the CBA doesn’t guarantee NHL players on Olympic ice. — Wyshynski
Did the NHL end three-team salary retention trades?
It has become an NHL trade deadline tradition. One team retains salary on a player so he can fit under another team’s salary cap. But to make the trade happen, those teams invite a third team to the table to retain even more of that salary to make it work.
Like when the Lightning acquired old friend Yanni Gourde from the Seattle Kraken last season. Gourde made $5,166,667 against the cap. Seattle traded him to Detroit for defenseman Kyle Aucoin, and the Kraken retained $2,583,334 in salary. The Red Wings then retained $1,291,667 of Gourde’s salary in sending him to Tampa Bay for a fourth-round pick, allowing the Lightning to fit him under their cap.
Though the NHL will still allow retained salary transactions, there’s now a mandatory waiting period until that player’s salary can be retained in a second transaction. A second retained salary transaction may not occur within 75 regular-season days of the first retained salary transaction.
Days outside of the regular-season schedule do not count toward the required 75 regular-season days, and therefore the restriction might span multiple seasons, according to the CBA. — Wyshynski
Can players now endorse alcoholic beverages?
Yes. The previous CBA banned players from any endorsement or sponsorship of alcoholic beverages. That has been taken out of the new CBA. If only Bob Beers were still playing …
While players remain prohibited from any endorsement or sponsorship of tobacco products, a carryover from the previous CBA, they’re also banned from endorsement or sponsorship of “cannabis (including CBD) products.” — Wyshynski
What are the new parameters for Emergency Goaltender Replacement?
The NHL is making things official with the emergency backup goaltender (EBUG) position.
In the past, that third goalie spot went to someone hanging out in the arena during a game, ready to jump in for either team if both of their own goaltenders were injured or fell ill during the course of play. Basically, it was a guy in street clothes holding onto the dream of holding down an NHL crease.
Now, the league has given permanent status to the EBUG role. That player will travel with and practice for only one club. But there are rules involved in their employment.
This CBA designates that to serve as a team’s emergency goaltender replacement, the individual cannot have played an NHL game under an NHL contract, appeared in more than 80 professional hockey games, have been in professional hockey within the previous three seasons, have a contractual obligation that would prevent them from fulfilling their role as the EBUG or be on the reserve or restricted free agent list of an NHL club.
Teams must submit one designated EBUG 48 hours before the NHL regular season starts. During the season, teams can declare that player 24 hours before a game. — Shilton
What’s the deal with eliminating deferred salaries?
The new CBA will prohibit teams from brokering deferred salary arrangements, meaning players will be paid in full during the contract term lengths. This is meant to save players from financial uncertainty and makes for simplified contract structures with the club.
There are examples of players who had enormous signing bonuses paid up front or had structured their deals to include significant payouts when they ended. Both tactics could serve to lower an individual’s cap hit over the life of a deal. Now that won’t be an option for teams or players to use in negotiations. — Shilton
What’s different about contract lengths?
Starting under the new CBA, the maximum length of a player contract will go from eight years to seven years if he’s re-signing with the same club, and down to just six years (from the current seven) if he signs with a new team.
So, for example, a player coming off his three-year, entry-level contract could re-sign only with that same team for up to seven years, and he’ll become an unrestricted free agent sooner than the current agreement would allow.
This could benefit teams that have signed players to long-term contracts that didn’t age well (for whatever reason) as they won’t be tied as long to that decision. And for players, it can help preserve some of their prime years if they want to move on following a potential 10 (rather than 11) maximum seasons with one club. — Shilton
What does the new league minimum salary look like? How does it compare to the other men’s professional leagues?
Under the new CBA, the minimum salary for an NHL player will rise from $775,000 to $1 million by the end of the four-year agreement. Although gradual, it is a significant rise for a league in which the salary cap presents more challenges compared to its counterparts.
For example, the NHL will see its salary cap rise to $95.5 million in 2025-26, compared to that of the NFL in which Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s highest three-year average is $61.6 million.
So how does the new NHL minimum salary upon the CBA’s completion compare to its counterparts in the Big 4?
The NBA league minimum for the 2025-26 season is $1.4 million for a rookie, while players with more than 10 years can earn beyond $3.997 million in a league that has a maximum of 15 roster spots
The NFL, which has a 53-player roster, has a league minimum of $840,000 for rookies in 2025, while a veteran with more than seven years will earn $1.255 million.
MLB’s CBA, which expires after the 2026 season, has the minimum salary for the 2025 season set at $760,000, and that figure increases to $780,000 next season. — Clark
Is this Gary Bettman’s final CBA as commissioner?
Possibly. The Athletic reported in January that the board of governors had begun planning for Bettman’s eventual retirement “in a couple of years,” while starting the process to find his successor.
Bettman became the NHL’s first commissioner in 1993, and has the distinction of being the longest-serving commissioner among the four major men’s professional leagues in North America. He is also the oldest. Bettman turned 73 in June, while contemporaries Roger Goodell, Rob Manfred and Adam Silver are all in their early- to mid-60s.
That’s not to suggest he couldn’t remain in place. There is a precedent of commissioners across those leagues who remained in those respective roles into their 70s. Ford Frick, who served as the third commissioner of MLB, was 71 when he stepped down in 1965. There are more recent examples than Frick, as former NBA commissioner David Stern stepping down in 2014 when he was 71, and former MLB commissioner Bud Selig stepped down in 2015 at age 80. — Clark
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Former Michigan football staff member Connor Stalions, whose actions triggered an NCAA investigation into sign-stealing, says he knew almost every signal opponents used in seven games over two seasons.
Stalions shared those details Saturday on social media, responding to TCU coach Sonny Dykes telling On3 that his team changed some signs in advance of its win over the Wolverines in the 2022 College Football semifinals.
“We got some favorable matchups because of that and, yeah, there was some big plays in the game,” Dykes said in the On3 report.
Stalions bristled at the latest attempt to suggest Michigan won or lost games because of his sign-stealing role with the team.
“There were 7 games in my time at Michigan where I knew almost every signal the whole game: 2021 MSU, 2022 MSU, 2022 PSU, 2022 OSU, 2022 TCU, 2021 Georgia, and 2021 Wisconsin,” Stalions wrote in his post. “We lost 3 of those games because we didn’t tackle well, and Georgia was historically good. We won the four other games because we dominated the line of scrimmage & tackled well. Blocking, ball security, tackling, run fits & coverage tools.
“That’s football. This is not rocket science.”
Nearly a year ago, the NCAA alleged in a notice relating to Michigan’s sign-stealing investigation that current coach Sherrone Moore violated rules as an assistant under former coach Jim Harbaugh, who served a three-game suspension in exchange for the Big Ten dropping its own investigation into the allegations after the two ended up in court.
Moore also was accused of deleting text messages with Stalions, before they were recovered and provided to the NCAA. Moore has said he has and will continue to cooperate with the NCAA’s investigation.
Michigan is prepared to suspend Moore for two games during the coming season. The NCAA will decide if that self-imposed sanction is enough to address allegations that Moore failed to cooperate in an investigation that rocked college football during the 2023 championship season with Harbaugh on the sideline.
The school had a hearing with the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions last month. The governing body takes three months on average for contested cases to make a final decision.
The Wolverines open the season on Aug. 30 at home against New Mexico State and then go to Oklahoma, where Moore played as an offensive lineman, on Sept. 6.
The NCAA does not have rules against stealing signs, but it does prohibit schools from sending scouts to the games of future opponents and using electronic equipment to record another team’s signals. Records from other Big Ten schools showed that Stalions bought tickets to games involving future opponents, sending people to digitally record teams when they signaled plays.
Stalions initially was placed on leave by Michigan and later resigned. He did not participate in the NCAA investigation.
The NCAA previously put Michigan on three years of probation, fined the school and implemented recruiting limits after reaching a negotiated resolution in a recruiting case and banned Harbaugh from coaching college football for four years.
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