“If it gets much colder, I am thinking of doing something, just to go back to prison,” says Leon Lear, 43, as he sits next to the remnants of his failed fire on the edge of a playground in Bridgend, South Wales.
The wood was too damp to burn; the only ash is from cardboard from a nearby recycling bin. A damp sleeping bag hangs over the railings.
Image: Leon Lear says he has considered committing more offences in order to get sent back to jail
Leon is on early release from jail, but he’d rather have stayed in. He says instead of celebrating he began to get anxious as his release date approached, knowing he would be homeless and that the outside meant literally that – outside.
He says: “Because I was released five weeks early, the probation, and housing didn’t have an inkling I was going to be released. They told me that I’d be on a waiting list for housing. So, since then, I’ve been living on the streets.”
Leon was jailed for affray in June this year, released five weeks early but homeless in July. He was recalled on breach of licence for shoplifting in September and released again two weeks ago. How much longer before he is back inside?
He is one of 13% of prisoners in England and Wales who are released without a home and the chief inspector of probation says homelessness is the biggest driving factor for people reoffending or breaching their licence.
Recalled prisoners are the fastest-growing element of our overcrowded prison population, doubling in a decade.
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Leon is wearing two t-shirts that he stole that morning. He says he’s not proud of it but it’s what he must do to survive. “I don’t even have underwear,” he says, “I know it’s embarrassing, but this is how I got to live.”
His only possessions are a toothbrush and toothpaste in the pocket of a tracksuit given to him by a local charity.
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For a while, he bunked down with some heroin addicts, but that got him back on the drug after three years clean. So now he is on the streets and makes a daily trip to the drug clinic for methadone, to keep him off the habit.
“I’ve done a winter [homeless] before and it’s horrific,” he says. “Last night I was thinking of smashing a window or acting drunk, just to go to the police station to get a hot meal in on the blanket to stay somewhere safe. I’d rather be in jail than live like this much longer.”
That’s despite the fact he describes prison as being locked up 23 hours a day with mice in his cell.
Leon visits an outreach centre in town called BARC. As well as hot drinks and meals, they provide clothes, tents and help with doctors’ appointments and courses.
Demand for the services here has doubled in a year – a lot due to the early release scheme.
Founder Becky Lloyd, 45, says: “A lot of these guys are re-offending deliberately now to go back to prison because they’ve got nowhere to go. At least if we can try and support them, we can try and avoid that. But the winter is coming, they don’t want to be in a tent. They’d rather be in jail.”
Image: Becky Lloyd from the BARC community centre
We meet another man just out on early release who has been living in a tent for the last three weeks.
He told us: “It’s harder out here than being in there [prison]. Because you’ve got three meals a day in there and a roof over your head. Out here, you’ve got to come to places like this to get fed, you know, beg, borrow or steal.”
The centre relies on donations and much of the work is self-funded by Becky and co-founder Teresa Wilkie. While it seems a somewhat hopeless endeavour, success is personified by one of the workers.
Ffion Evans, 25, was on crack for three years and heroin for seven. When released from jail in December last year, she became homeless and turned back to her addiction. But when she became pregnant, she managed to turn her life around.
Image: Ffion Evans, a released prisoner who now works as a volunteer support worker
Wearing a T-shirt with the words “actually, I can”, she says: “I started coming here, they supported me and showed me I’m worth it and I can do it.
“Now I’ve been clean for months, I’m a support volunteer worker so I’ve got a career ahead of me. It’s brilliant. This is the best version of me I have ever been. I couldn’t have done it without these lot.”
The chief inspector of probation, Martin Jones, told Sky News: “What we know is that if people do not have a safe accommodation at the point of release, they are more likely to be recalled to custody as a result of breaching their licence conditions or indeed to re-offend. I think it [providing a home] is probably the most critically important part of a prisoner’s release.”
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Tom Hollick from The Wallich, which offers council-funded support for the homeless in Bridgend, said: “There’s over 11,000 people, in the latest data across the whole of Wales, who are in temporary accommodation with more people presenting all the time.
“So, it’s kind of that bottleneck in the system, and people coming out of prison are adding to the existing crisis.”
A Ministry of Justice Spokesperson said: “The new government inherited a justice system in crisis, with levels of homelessness which were far too high and an early release scheme that did not give probation staff enough time to get prisoners ready for their release.
“Our new system allows staff to better prepare offenders for life after prison and we are working with partners, including local councils and charities, to avoid them being released onto the street.”
A raft of tax rises is expected in the budget this lunchtime – with the chancellor acknowledging that voters are “angry at the unfairness in our economy”.
In a newly released video, Rachel Reeves said the public is “frustrated at the pace of change” – but vowed to “take the fair and necessary choices” to tackle the cost of living crisis.
And in a dig at the Conservatives – especially former prime minister Liz Truss – she pledged not to impose austerity, lose control of public spending, or engage in more reckless borrowing.
But given the chancellor had ruled out such a measure last year – because it would “hurt working people” and “take more money out of their payslips” – this will attract criticism from opposition parties.
The chancellor has backed away from raising income tax rates outright, a move that would have breached Labour’s manifesto, but she still needs to find the cash to pay for her public spending plans.
Image: Watch our special programme for Budget 2025 live on Sky News from 11am
Some measures already confirmed by the government include:
It is being reported that the chancellor will also put a cap on the tax-free allowance for salary sacrifice schemes, raise taxes on gambling firms, and bring in a pay-per-mile scheme for electric vehicles.
Setting the scene ahead of the budget at 12.30pm, Ms Reeves said she will “push ahead with the biggest drive for growth in a generation”, promising investment in infrastructure, housing, security, defence, education, and skills.
Although she has vowed not to “duck challenges” nor “accept that our past must define our future”, she admitted that “the damage done from austerity, a chaotic Brexit, and the pandemic were worse than we thought”.
What are the key timings for the budget?
11am – Sky News special programme starts.
About 11.15am – Chancellor Rachel Reeves leaves Downing Street and holds up her red box.
12pm – Sir Keir Starmer faces PMQs.
12.30pm – The chancellor delivers the budget.
About 1.30pm – Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch delivers the budget response.
2.30pm – The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) holds a news conference on the UK economy.
4.30pm – Sky News holds a Q&A on what the budget means for you.
7pm – The Politics Hub special programme on the budget.
The fiscal black hole is down to several factors – including a downgrade in the productivity growth forecast, U-turns on cuts to benefits and the winter fuel allowance, as well as “heightened global uncertainty”.
Nonetheless, the chancellor has promised more investment to cut NHS waiting lists, deal with “waste in the public sector”, and reduce the national debt.
“This budget is for you, the British people. So that together we can build a fairer, stronger, and more secure Britain,” she said.
Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride has said Ms Reeves is “trying to pull the wool over your eyes” – having promised last year that she would not need to raise taxes again.
Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper has accused her and the prime minister of “yet more betrayals”.
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2:08
What is the ‘milkshake tax’?
What could her key spending announcements be?
As well as filling the black hole in the public finances, these measures could allow the chancellor to spend money on a key demand of Labour MPs – partially or fully lifting the two-child benefits cap, which they say will have an immediate impact on reducing child poverty.
Benefits more broadly will be uprated in line with inflation, at a cost of £6bn, The Times reports.
In an attempt to help households with the cost of the living, the paper also reports that the chancellor will seek to cut energy bills by removing some green levies, which could see funding for some energy efficiency measures reduced.
Other measures The Times says she will announce include retaining the 5p cut in fuel duty, and extending the Electric Car Grant by an extra year, which gives consumers a £3,750 discount at purchase.
The government has already confirmed several key announcements, including:
Extra funding for the NHS will also be announced in a bid to slash waiting lists, including the expansion of the “Neighbourhood Health Service” across the country to bring together GP, nursing, dentistry and pharmacy services – as well as £300m of investment into upgrading technology in the health service.
And although the cost of this is borne by businesses, the chancellor will confirm a 4.1% rise to the national living wage – taking it to £12.71 an hour for eligible workers aged 21 and over.
For a full-time worker over the age of 21, that means a pay increase of £900 a year.
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11:05
What the budget will mean for you
Britons facing ‘cost of living permacrisis’
However, the Tories have hit out at the chancellor for the impending tax rises, with shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride saying in a statement: “Having already raised taxes by £40bn, Reeves said she had wiped the slate clean, she wouldn’t be coming back for more, and it was now on her. A year later and she is set to break that promise.”
He described her choices as “political weakness” – choosing “higher welfare and higher taxes”, and “hardworking families are being handed the bill”.
The Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper is also not impressed, and warned last night: “The economy is at a standstill. Despite years of promises from the Conservatives and now Labour to kickstart growth and clamp down on crushing household bills, the British people are facing a cost-of-living permacrisis and yet more betrayals from those in charge.”
She called on the government to negotiate a new customs union with the EU, which she argues would “grow our economy and bring in tens of billions for the Exchequer”.
Green Party leader Zack Polanski has demanded “bold policies and bold choices that make a real difference to ordinary people”.
The SNP is calling on the chancellor to “help families” rather than “hammer them with billions of pounds of cuts and damaging tax hikes that destroy jobs and hurt economic growth”.
A headline tax-raising measure expected in today’s budget is an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds for another two years beyond 2028, which should raise about £8bn.
The amount people pay is dependent on how much they earn, with different tax bands kicking in at different income levels.
In the past, these thresholds have been increased in line with inflation. But more recently they have been frozen, leaving people paying more to the exchequer even if actual tax rates stay the same.
Sky News looks at what the thresholds are, the implications of freezing them, and how that causes “fiscal drag”.
Income tax thresholds
England, Northern Ireland and Wales all have the same income tax rates, set by the British government.
Scotland’s income tax bands are set by the Scottish government, so Westminster budget announcements on income tax do not affect workers in Scotland.
For England, Northern Ireland and Wales, there is a “personal allowance” of £12,570, under which no income tax is paid.
For those earning above £100,000, the personal allowance goes down by £1 for every £2 of income, and can go down to zero, so a person can end up paying income tax on all of their income.
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Thresholds were previously increased annually by consumer price index (CPI) inflation – the estimate of the level of prices of goods and services bought by households.
But, because income tax thresholds have been frozen while wages continue to rise, more people are being brought into higher bands and having to pay more income tax.
A worker whose earnings just keep up with inflation is paying a larger proportion of their salary in tax due to the freeze.
This means more money for the government – a lot more.
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11:05
The budget vs your wallet: How the chancellor could raise billions
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates a continuing freeze in thresholds would raise about £42.9bn annually by the 2027/28 tax year.
And the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has projected that freezes to the basic and higher rates of income tax alone would raise £39bn a year by 2029-30.
That is roughly similar to the amount of revenue that would be raised by increasing all income tax rates by 3.5 percentage points.
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3:35
Sky News goes inside the room where the budget is decided
Fiscal drag
Freezing income tax thresholds without tax rates increasing has been branded a “stealth tax”, as the government collects more revenue without having to pass a law to raise tax rates.
It is also known as fiscal drag, as more people are pulled into paying tax, or into paying tax at a higher rate.
The OBR estimates the freeze will bring nearly four million more people into paying income tax, three million more people into the higher rate (40%) and 400,000 more into the additional rate (45%) by 2028-29.
The British Army has paused the use of its new Ajax armoured fighting vehicles after “around 30” soldiers suffered vibration and hearing problems following a training exercise at the weekend.
A Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesperson said on Tuesday the two-week pause comes after “a small number of soldiers reported symptoms of noise and vibration” in the exercise, which was “immediately stopped”.
The spokesperson said “around 30 personnel presented noise and vibration symptoms” after tests were carried out, but the “vast majority of these have now been medically cleared and are continuing on duty”.
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2:42
Is the army’s new fighting vehicle any good?
A small number “continue to receive expert medical care”, they said.
“Out of an abundance of caution, the minister for defence readiness and industry [Luke Pollard] has asked the army to pause all use of Ajax for training and exercising for two weeks, while a safety investigation is carried out into the events this weekend.
“A small amount of testing of the vehicle will continue, in order to ensure that any issues can to identified and resolved.”
The MoD said the decision “underlines our absolute commitment to the safety of our personnel. As with any major equipment programme, we continue to test and refine the vehicle to ensure safety and performance”.
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“The safety of our personnel is our top priority,” the spokesperson said.
The Ajax, which costs nearly £10m and weighs more than 40 tonnes, is being billed by the ministry as a “next generation” fighting machine.
Image: The Ajax has a 40mm gun
As heavy as a Russian tank, the vehicle is equipped with cameras, protective armour and a 40mm gun, with bullets that can rip through concrete.
Soldiers were taken to hospital this summer after suffering hearing and other injuries because of loud noise and vibrations coming from the vehicles.
Earlier this month, the MoD confirmed that a “small number” of troops had reported noise and vibration concerns following trials on three variants of the tracked vehicle.
A spokesperson said an investigation was carried out and “no systemic issues were found”.
An internal review published in 2021 found that senior soldiers and MoD officials had known for up to two years that earlier faults with the Ajax vehicle had been putting troops at risk of harm.