‘We are going to build this the right way’: How the Panthers rose to prominence on and off the ice
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Emily Kaplan, ESPN
Ten years ago, a photo from a Florida Panthers game went viral — and still lives in infamy. It was Florida’s third game of the 2013-14 season, against the Ottawa Senators, and it wouldn’t be an impossible exercise to try to count every fan in sight.
“That picture was right at puck drop. It wound up being around 7,000 for the night, but Canadian media were all over us — and rightfully so,” Panthers CEO Matt Caldwell said. “If you’re watching a professional sports team have crowds like that, it begs the question: Is this even worth it? Is this survival? Should the team be moved?”
Fast-forward a decade, and the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are the toast of the hockey world. The team told ESPN it is close to selling out season tickets after a nearly 25 percent increase in attendance over the past two years (they averaged 18,632 per game last season), and a 123.8% jump in corporate partnership revenue in the same span. The South Florida market can be finicky and winning cures all, but the Panthers believe they have tapped into a sustainable model — with a legitimate chance to repeat this season. The Panthers have become a force.
“They have that demeanor where they’re confident, so they play that way,” said defenseman Brandon Carlo of the rival Boston Bruins. “And that’s tough to beat.”
At the NHL draft, it’s customary for teams to get on stage and congratulate the recent Stanley Cup winner. At the 2024 draft in Las Vegas, weeks after Florida hoisted its first Cup, not one team shouted out the Panthers. Joked GM Bill Zito: “Nobody likes us.”
A narrative of jealousy lingers around the Panthers. Between the weather and having no state income tax, it’s a destination franchise — especially now that they’ve built a winning culture. Players are willing to sign there for less. Florida is rarely on a player’s no-trade list.
But privately, it’s equal parts jealousy and admiration. In a copycat league, other teams are looking for ways to emulate the Cats. Said an Eastern Conference front office executive: “They are built the same way somebody who played the game would build a team. Everyone is trying to modernize and this and that. They have that ‘f— you’ in them. They focus on f—ing hockey. And they’re damn good at it.”
So how did Florida do it? ESPN talked to a number of front office executives and players about how the Panthers built a model franchise on and off the ice, and what lessons other teams can learn.
They put respect into the brand, and embraced who they were
Most conversations around the Panthers begin with the commitment from ownership. Vincent Viola, an Army veteran and self-made billionaire through business, bought the team in 2013.
“He said, ‘We are going to build this the right way. I don’t care if we deal with the noise of empty crowds or fans complaining; that’s growing pains,'” Caldwell said. “And we have to be disciplined. I give him credit, because we took some steps backward.”
The Panthers have one of the biggest arenas in the league, which was hard to fill. Its location, Sunrise, is an hour North of Miami (on a good traffic day) and it sits in the parking lot of one of the country’s biggest outlet malls.
A decade ago, the team’s finances were a mess. “We were all in New York at the time, before we moved down to Florida, and I kept doing trips — a couple weeks at a time — and every time uncovered more and more upside-down deals,” Caldwell said. “They were giving out a lot of free tickets, doing a lot of gimmicky promotions — things that would never help the brand long term. The cash position the company was in was very bad. They were losing a ton of money.”
Caldwell and Viola have backgrounds in finance. They rearranged the sales offices to mimic a trading floor and dug in with cold calls to those who were on the fence about buying tickets, explaining why things were changing but asking them to trust the process.
“We brought an immense personal touch,” Caldwell said. “Fans realized it was the chief operating officers and senior VPs calling and laying out our plan, not some college kids. And it worked.”
A few other strategies were also effective. First, the Panthers reidentified as hyper-local. The NHL team wasn’t going to convince people to drive from Miami — also home to the Dolphins, Heat and Marlins, not to mention beaches and nightlife. The Panthers were the only sports team in Broward County and leaned into marketing locally.
They also acknowledged that Florida was a tourism market. They knew their biggest draws were when Original Six teams visited, and didn’t hide from that.
“We embraced opposing fans,” Caldwell said. “We said, ‘We understand when the Rangers play or Boston plays, we may not change that loyalty.’ But it’s easier to convert a die-hard hockey fan living in the area to come to the other 39 games than a family that has never seen a game before. So we came up with tailored packages for them.”
All the while, the team invested in the community and focused on developing that next generation of fans by introducing them to hockey at a young age. Since 2013, the market has seen a 73% increase in youth hockey player participation.
“We don’t try to be something we’re not,” Caldwell said. “We’re very honest with ourselves, vulnerable, and just real. We like to double down on our strengths, and then improve our weaknesses, but not spend too much time on them.”
They took risks, but weren’t afraid to make mistakes
On the ice, the Panthers were stuck in a rut: spending money while not being good enough to contend, yet not bad enough to rebuild. Zito was hired as general manager in 2020 after an extensive search. A lawyer turned agent turned executive, Zito orchestrated some of the brashest moves the NHL has seen in recent years. Most came in the summer of 2022, after the team finally broke through by lapping the league in goals scored, capturing the Presidents’ Trophy and winning the franchise’s first playoff series in a decade. While seemingly making progress, they shook the whole thing up.
The Panthers switched coaches, hiring Paul Maurice, who changed the team’s playing style. Then they mortgaged the future, trading a homegrown star winger in Jonathan Huberdeau, an ascending defenseman in MacKenzie Weegar and a first-round pick for one player: Matthew Tkachuk.
In fact, the Panthers traded away first-round draft picks from 2022 to 2025. Not all of those risks worked out, but the front office kept making them anyway. With a dearth of homegrown prospects and nearly $15 million committed to two goaltenders, the Panthers needed to shop for bargains.
They’ve hit on quite a few, including their best defenseman, Gustav Forsling, whom they picked up on the waiver wire.
The Panthers stick to a guiding philosophy: Every player is scouted for his character. Players must be ultra competitive, but also humble enough to buy into Coach Maurice’s style, which is mentally and physically taxing. Zito said their vetting often includes questions like: How compelled are they by winning? What types of sacrifices have they made at previous stops?
Those traits are more important than past performance.
“We understand that every player has some flaws,” Zito said. “And we can worry about what they’re doing wrong, but we can also utilize and celebrate what they do right. Because no one is perfect. If you make a mistake, we’re not going to get mad at you. It’s, ‘Dude, I got your back. It’s fine.’ That helped them play. So it all comes back to trust. That puts people in the best position to be themselves.”
Zito, for his part, thinks it’s what drives them all.
“I think we can be a lot better, to be honest,” Zito said. “I know I can be. But when I make mistakes, there’s no doubt in my mind that the coaches, the staff and players would have my back. I think everyone has that feeling.”
They learned to put aside ego
Viola is generous in spending money outside of the salary cap, as long as there’s justification on how it can help. One place that shows up is in hockey operations. They established a first-of-its-kind goaltending excellence department, but can rationalize paying four goalie coaches because every goalie who has come in to play with Sergei Bobrovsky has pushed the starter while posting a career year himself.
Outside of three assistant general managers — whose backgrounds range from analytics to scouting — the team has three senior advisers to the general managers who were former general managers themselves. A rival front office executive pointed to this group as the Panthers’ secret sauce.
“Nobody talks about these guys,” the executive said. “But they’re so good. Every time we think we’re in on a player, we identify someone, the Panthers are already on it.”
Zito explains the process of getting together as humbling and educational.
“It’s these decades of hockey intelligence from completely different individuals,” Zito explained. “I mean, Rick Dudley, Paul Fenton and Les Jackson could not be more dissimilar. When we all get together, there’s arguments — heated arguments. But you never leave those meetings with a bad taste or your feelings hurt. Because you know the guy who challenged you on your scouting report is well-intended. There’s no agenda, nobody cares if they were the first to scout him or anything like that.”
Selflessness is a big theme in the Panthers’ locker room, too. Zito believes humility stems from his captain, Aleksander Barkov.
“He’s the most selfless guy I know in daily life,” Zito said. “Being around him, you ultimately end up being a better version of yourself because he’s just that way. And if the lead dog is that way, that’s how you’re going to be.”
It continues with Maurice, who can be as hard as any coach in the league — but never forgets the human element.
Last season when the Panthers were drawing more after-the-whistle scrums than any team in the league, they had a reputation as the NHL’s bad boys. Like many teams, they have photos of the officials and their names taped to the bench. For the Panthers, the letters “STFU” were written under the officials’ headshots. That was a reminder from Maurice to Maurice to maintain discipline too. While Maurice has become famous for his quotable clips, he strays from being self-righteous.
The team changed identities from having a high-flying offense to a team built on relentless forechecking and physicality — in their Stanley Cup run, opposing coaches constantly commented on how Florida wore teams down by the third period. That takes total buy-in.
“I’ve never been on a team with absolutely no ego in it,” 57-goal scorer Sam Reinhart said.
Reinhart explained further what that looks like behind closed doors.
“You look at a guy like Chucky [Tkachuk], who’s got all the confidence in the world. He’s arguably a top-three producer in the league at any given time,” Reinhart said. “There was a stretch around the Eastern Conference finals leading into the [Stanley Cup] Final for about six games where he didn’t score. And no one would’ve ever noticed. I think we had won all those six games in a row. Not one guy could’ve told you that he hadn’t scored in six games. His personality didn’t change, his confidence didn’t change. Defending first, that was our mentality. When I look back on our run, that’s a moment I’ll always think of.”
They prioritized comfort and rest
The Panthers made it to the Stanley Cup Final a year before they won, in 2023, and by the time they got there they were hobbled and bruised by a litany of injuries. Florida players said after that run they reestablished the importance of a strong start to the season. They were clawing for weeks just to get into the playoffs, which added to the two months of mental and physical grind.
Maurice said he thought he’d have to go heavier for longer during last training camp. But he didn’t need to, because the players reported with a much more business-like approach.
Getting that close to the goal is the ultimate motivator, just ask Connor McDavid.
“You look at what Florida did going to the finals — gaining that experience and then coming back, and following it up, and winning,” McDavid said. “It’s a great experience playing with the Cup in the building, but a different animal. I think our group will learn from it.”
So what did Florida learn?
“It gave us confidence in how to handle certain things, from a rest standpoint or a recovery standpoint,” Reinhart said.
While several people hinted that the Panthers made tweaks to workload management and recovery, Zito wasn’t willing to give away any specifics. It should be noted that in 2022 the Panthers hired an Australian, Dr. Chris McLellan, as their VP of sports performance. McLellan, a former professor, came from the National Rugby League. The Panthers love that he didn’t come in with any biases such as that had been the way things had always been done in hockey.
Based on fitness testing, Maurice said the Panthers reported to training camp in even better shape this season.
Over the past few years, the Panthers have understood the cost of winning — and again, it has helped that ownership has footed extra bills. Florida opened a $65 million practice facility in December, which is the envy of many in the league. Most players get there by driving their golf carts; many stay late because of the cold-tub/hot-tub setup, outdoor dining areas and pickleball courts. Caldwell points to COVID as an inflection point. With no games, the Panthers, like many businesses, were hemorrhaging money. Viola had already committed to paying his full staff throughout the pandemic. The practice facility project was underway. “The budget went up 25, 30% during that time,” Caldwell said. “And he didn’t blink at all.”
Also in that time, the Panthers upped amenities, like hiring a full-time chef. According to Caldwell, the team has also recently upgraded the team plane, food on the road as well as hotels.
“Everything they’ve done here makes it a first-class organization,” forward Evan Rodrigues said last spring, a year after signing as a free agent. “Why would you not want to play for a place that treats its players this well and is so serious about winning?”
The biggest sign that things have changed for Florida: Last month they extended their agreement with Broward County. With four years left on the arena lease, the parties extended five more years. The amended deal also includes giving the county two five-year options to extend the lease even further, at their full discretion. It was unanimously approved.
“They made a commitment to us and the arena,” Caldwell said. “And we wanted to show we were all-in.”
The Panthers know how fickle the market can be, which is why carrying momentum is so important. They’re the toast of the NHL now, but are hungry to win again — and be a model for years to come.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”
That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.
“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”
Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.
Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.
Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.
Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.
Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.
Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.
Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.
Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.
Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.
Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.
Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.
Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.
Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.
Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.
Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.
Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.
Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.
Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.
Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.
The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.
The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.
Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.
Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.
South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.
Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.
I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.
Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
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