‘We live in the weird’: How the Calgorithm became college football’s newest sensation
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
BERKELEY, Calif. — Miles Goodman, a first-year grad student at UC Berkeley, had no idea the chain of events he was about to set off when he opened his photo-editing app late in Cal‘s 21-14 win at Auburn on Sept. 7.
For months, Goodman had interacted with opposing fan bases under the handle @golDonbear on X, and it was normal for him to run into barbs about Cal as a bastion of progressive values. The stereotyping was often meant to be insulting, but it usually just left Goodman amused.
Still, those comments were top of mind as Cal put the finishing touches on a win in which it physically dominated the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
“I was like, ‘OK, well this thing that you are pushing both Cal as a team and as an institution, why not take it on from a satirical lens?'” Goodman said.
He cobbled together a few poignant photos, slapped on a rainbow and completed his meme with the phrase, “You just lost to the woke agenda.”
When the official Auburn football account posted a final score graphic on X, Goodman reposted it with his work of art. The post went viral, and in the weeks since has been viewed more than 5 million times.
The common sentiment among college football fans: Cal Twitter, I was not familiar with your game.
Goodman’s post was an inflection point in what has led to the Calgorithm, the overarching term that has come to define Cal’s irreverent community of fans whose self-deprecating brand of internetting has generated fresh enthusiasm about the football program as it begins a new life in the ACC.
Armed with basic photo- and video-editing skills, generative AI art tools and the desire to change the perception that people in Berkeley don’t care about football, the Calgorithm is powered by a mix of longtime fans who use their real names and a larger group of mostly anonymous posters, known as “the burners.” Their dedication played a contributing factor in the decision from ESPN’s “College GameDay” to visit Cal this week for the first time.
“It’s not that we changed that much,” a burner known as Admiral Bear told ESPN. “It’s that the national consciousness figured out that we exist and that we’re interesting.”
AUGUST 2023 WAS a particularly stressful month for Cal fans as the Pac-12 collapsed, leaving the Bears and rival Stanford with an uncertain future.
“There was a real fear that Cal football could die,” said Nick Kranz, a lifelong Cal fan and a contributor to the website Write for California. “Either a literal death, like the school decides, ‘This is not worth it and we’re going to stop playing football.’ Or a more figurative death. ‘We’re going to keep doing it in the Mountain West, but we’re going to get no revenue out of it and we’re never going to achieve anything.'”
Anxiety built over several weeks as the Bay Area schools languished in the Pac-12, their conference home for over 100 years, before the ACC formally admitted the pair on the eve of the first weekend of the college football season.
It was a strange development to process. From the press box at Cal’s Memorial Stadium, there is a view of the San Francisco Bay, and on a clear day it’s possible to see beyond the Golden Gate Bridge out to the Pacific Ocean. Yet, the stadium would now host games in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
“Cal in the ACC is very strange,” said Avinash Kunnath, another prominent member of Cal’s online community who has written about the Bears for years. “There’s no two ways around it. And it’s not going to be something that’s going to be easy for a lot of older [fans] or people who have been in the Pac-12 for 50 years. But I think the one thing our community has done is — we live in the weird.”
Most importantly, the move secured a place in a power conference, but it also led to this opportunity for fans to engage in circles of the internet they wouldn’t have meandered to before. In the Pac-12, everything was familiar and there was monotony that came with that. In the ACC, Cal arrived with an element of intrigue for opposing fans, many of whom were unfamiliar with the school beyond its left-wing reputation.
For Cal fans, that dynamic turned into an opportunity.
GAMEDAY. pic.twitter.com/enbpg91IDG
— Admiral Bear (@AdmiralBear01) September 29, 2024
“We embraced our identity, we started to get more comfortable with the woke stuff and all the things that come with the political side of things, but we didn’t make it super serious,” Kunnath said. “We just kept it kind of lighthearted. We poke fun at ourselves a lot, and we didn’t run from our identity.”
Added Kranz: “Cal gets the ACC lifeline and a bunch of people online who just love Cal football have decided, ‘We are going to save Cal football through the sheer force of our vibes.'”
Considering how diametrically opposed Berkeley and Auburn, Alabama, are on the political spectrum, it was only natural for that to fuel the online banter leading up to and through the game. But as Cal fans playfully leaned into their own stereotypes, there was an disarming effect that welcomed anyone — including Auburn fans — to get in on the joke.
Their tone wasn’t universally adored, but it was clear they tapped into something fun and different. Goodman’s post was far from the only one that played with that theme, but its timing and execution made the most of the moment.
“That particular joke really hit on a nerve where it’s like, ‘OK, we’re going to reappropriate the fact that you are looking down on us as lesser college football fans and you just lost to those lesser college football fans,” Kranz said. “If you’re going to make us a joke, then we’re going to run with that joke and we’re going to be the woke mob that can win football games and also go to goofy protests and hug the trees and whatever other silly stereotype that you like to make about Berkeley.”
In the wake of the Auburn game, the community grew.
“I actually made my account that I use now — @wokemobfootball — right after the Auburn game and just went deep into it,” a new burner, known as Callie, told ESPN. “I just happened to get lucky, saw a post, and the algorithm decided I needed more of it. And then I realized, ‘Oh, this is something I really like. I’m going to go all the way in.'”
Callie grew up going to Cal games with her father and in the past had occasionally waded into Cal Twitter from her main account — the one she uses her real name with — but she could sense there was a movement afoot. The more absurd the joke, the better.
As more people got involved, the more coordinated everything became. A group chat within X includes more than 100 burners who share ideas and provide feedback for one another.
Momentum continued to build as Cal beat San Diego State 21-0, but it was the following week when things reached a new level, as the Bears prepared for their ACC debut against Florida State in Tallahassee.
A visit to Florida’s state capital offered another opportunity to poke fun at the contrast in political viewpoints, and the Calgorithm took advantage. Name the stereotype, the burners embraced it.
Callie started an official tongue-in-cheek Change.org petition that called for FSU to change its mascot from the Seminoles to the Manatees.
“The Manatee–a graceful and majestic creature–aligns much better with Florida State’s football team and fandom,” the petition reads.
There was an onslaught of generative AI images. Those without editing skills realized the barrier for entry to fire off their own contributions wasn’t very steep. All they needed was a couple of minutes and a finely tuned prompt and any number of online tools could spit back an image to match their vision.
FLORIDA STATE FANS! Here come your very own PARTICIPATION TROPHIES!
We know you’re feeling down about being 0-3, but CHEER UP! This weekend, Cal is bringing PARTICIPATION TROPHIES for each of you to boost your self-esteem!
There’s no shame in TRYING YOUR BEST, guys! Way to go! pic.twitter.com/T7DlnmUojx
— Admiral Bear (@AdmiralBear01) September 19, 2024
For the team, the trip to Tallahassee ended poorly. Cal outgained FSU 410-284, but its offense was a disaster in the red zone, and the Bears failed to score a touchdown in a 14-9 loss. This could have been the moment for Cal fans to abandon ship and let the Calgorithm fade back into obscurity.
Instead, the opposite happened.
The Calgorithm doubled down headed into the bye week with the hope of luring “GameDay” to campus with top-10 Miami headed to Berkeley on Oct. 5.
FOR WEEKS, CAL’S fans had joked that the song “Hot to Go!” by Chappell Roan could be reworked as “Ott to Go,” a nod to the Bears’ star running back Jaydn Ott. But as the Calgorithm became more ambitious, the joke became a real endeavor.
“A friend of mine was like, ‘I’m going to commission a singer and we’re going to make ‘Ott to Go’ happen,” Admiral Bear said. “And I’m just like, ‘That’s a big move. But if you’re going to put up the money for it, that’s cool.'”
But when Admiral Bear looked at the lyrics, he wasn’t feeling them and decided to take his own stab.
“I punched out some lyrics and sent it to him, and he is like, ‘That’s a thousand percent better. We’re absolutely going with that,'” Admiral Bear said. “We workshopped the lyrics a little bit, refined things here and there. He got demos from three different singers, and we picked the one we liked the best and sent her the lyrics. And a couple days later, she sent us the file.”
The commission cost a little more than $300 and the Swedish singer, Micky Hage, had been previously unaware that Cal football even existed. After she finished recording, she learned more about the Bears, including the fact that their mascot and her boyfriend go by the same name: Oski.
Callie had volunteered to make an accompanying music video and on Friday worked on it past 3 a.m. The completed version was well received when it posted Saturday, reflecting another step forward by the Calgorithm.
O-T-T-T-O-G-O
We’ve got Jaydn Ott to go!#Calgorithm #FightForCalGameday #H1M #WhyNotCal pic.twitter.com/8D68f8pnjH— The Liberal Calgorithm (@wokemobfootball) September 28, 2024
At work Monday, a co-worker went by Callie’s desk specifically to show her the “Ott to Go” video.
“He’s a Cal alum and he showed it to me, and I kept quiet,” she said. “He was like, ‘This is so funny. Did you know about Cal Twitter?’ I was like, ‘Oh, yeah, I’ve heard of that.’
“I did send it to my dad and said, ‘Hey, I made this,’ but definitely not to my co-workers. I don’t need them knowing about my burner account.”
ON THE SAME day the “Ott to Go” video posted, “GameDay” announced it was headed to Berkeley. Segments of the Calgorithm had been lobbying for the show since the FSU loss and there was some cautious optimism after Miami stayed undefeated Friday night through a controversial ending against Virginia Tech.
“I was at Target in Emeryville when I found out,” Goodman said. “I did a backflip in the parking lot. Literally a backflip. The last time I ever hit a backflip was like eight years ago when I was doing gymnastics.”
Berkeley, for the FIRST TIME EVER, we’re headed your way!
College GameDay is coming to town as Cal welcomes top-10 Miami 🔥 @CalFootball pic.twitter.com/wnjmMT8rrE
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) September 29, 2024
Without the enthusiasm from the Calgorithm, it’s hard to gauge how appealing Berkeley would have been for the show. What’s clear is there is a correlation between what’s happening online and real-world benefits.
After “GameDay” announced it was coming, the California Legends Collective announced an inspired anonymous donor was willing to match up to $1 million in donations ahead of the Miami game, and in the first 36 hours the collective received more than $300,000 in pledges.
“Having a bunch of super-smart, super-engaged, super-creative people lending their voices to this and kind of raising awareness of Cal football has been a godsend,” said Kevin Kennedy, the collective’s executive director. “We don’t have this million-dollar match without ‘GameDay.’ So if we’re kind of saying that the Calgorithm brought us ‘GameDay,’ then the Calgorithm brought us a million dollars and counting.”
“We’re going to hit the million-dollar match. I think the only question is how much we’re going to go over the million-dollar match. So we’ll have at least $2 million more in NIL than we would’ve without this happening. So it’s been terrific.”
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Kiley McDaniel
The 2025 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 boards.
The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.
In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.
Which direction will the Nationals go — and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
Since this is a last-minute update on what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my mock draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.
Draft tracker: Results, analysis for every Day 1 pick
More coverage: Mock draft 3.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
1. Washington Nationals
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
There have been a lot of rumors flying around over the past few days about what is happening in the wake of the firing of GM Mike Rizzo.
The industry feeling is that what has changed is 1) Anderson is a little more likely to be the pick mostly because Holliday is now a little less likely to be the pick, and 2) taking a bigger cut is a real option, with Eli Willits the main cut-rate possibility, though Aiva Arquette has also been mentioned.
All but Willits are advised by Scott Boras, and he’ll never tip his hand until he has to; now is not the time yet. Nothing is decided here and price will be a factor. If I turned this in 15 minutes before the draft, the Nats might still not have made the decision, so I’ll stick with what seems most likely, even if I don’t feel great about it. Landon Harmon is a rumored later round, overslot target.
For context, a scouting director for a team picking in the top 10 said I shouldn’t feel confident about anything happening in the top three picks specifically, adding, “I’m hearing there’s wars happening in all of those rooms right now” (as of Friday night). I ran that by another director picking up high: “Yeah, we’re hearing the same thing.”
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
I’m going to stick with Doyle because he makes the most sense for what the Angels have proved they’re looking for in recent drafts: a polished, quick-moving college player who will come at a savings.
I’ve heard at least six players seriously connected to this pick in the past few days: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish and Willits. There are a couple more I’ve been told are under consideration who I’m not taking seriously as options here.
It could be any of these players based on final conversations and bonus pricing info on each player coming in at the last minute. Doyle has a real shot to slide to No. 9 or No. 10 if he doesn’t go here, so he is motivated to give a competitive number.
0:55
Liam Doyle’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
The hot rumor of the past few days is that Tyler Bremner will be the pick here at big savings, and that holds up to further analysis because, in style, Bremner and Hernandez (long connected to this pick) are pretty similar.
It’s pretty widely known that Anderson is the No. 1 player for Seattle and will be the pick if he gets here, which still has maybe a 20-30% chance of happening.
If Anderson isn’t here, I think the decision comes down to Bremner at the most savings, Irish at a little less savings or Hernandez at the least savings, broadly speaking. Some sources have said Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also in play here, but they seem like tertiary options.
I think Bremner having more support in the No. 11-15 area that was reflected in the last mock will raise his price a bit to where Hernandez will be the pick, but this one is also wide open at the moment and will come down to a last-minute bonus price check if Anderson isn’t available.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
There has been some waffling late in the process from sources who think maybe the Rockies wouldn’t pay the overslot price to get Holliday down here — but much of what I hear very late in the process is wrong or intentional misinformation, so I’ll stick with what I’ve been hearing for a literal year.
I think the other options for Colorado if Holliday doesn’t get here are all college pitchers: Anderson, Arnold and Witherspoon, with Willits and Arquette getting some mentions.
1:10
Ethan Holliday’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
Willits seems securely in play at the top two picks and possibly at No. 4, so the Cardinals landing him here would be considered a solid outcome. I think Anderson and Holliday are the primary targets for this pick and Willits is next up, with Arnold and Irish as the possible underslot options.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
It sounds like Hernandez or Willits will be the pick if either is here, so the Pirates are rooting for Seattle to either land Anderson or opt for a cheaper alternative to Hernandez.
Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette and Irish are believed to be the four leading options here. Arnold has the most late support, but this one might also come down to money.
I hope you feel sympathy for me having to do this in public when none of these teams know what it will do and won’t for hours.
1:05
Jamie Arnold’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
I think this will come down to Parker, Iris, and Billy Carlson — and I think Parker has the edge.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
I think the Jays will pick Parker if he gets here and will consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available here. This decision seems to come down to Arquette or Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 13
I’m getting some late-breaking info that Irish is more of a fit here than Hall, so shuffling a few picks that follow to accommodate for that.
Cincinnati seems to be the floor if Hernandez or Doyle slip, and otherwise the Reds seem to be the ceiling for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon and Carlson are also in the mix.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be No. 7 to No. 12 (or maybe No. 14). I think the White Sox really want to land the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob) but can’t get JoJo to this pick.
The White Sox have been all over high school hitters all spring, and Carlson gets the nod over Gavin Fien.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is picking up steam at this pick, and I think his floor is now Boston’s pick at No. 15. It’s a bit surprising he could go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner clearly has been getting interest in the top half of the first round that just hadn’t leaked out to the industry at large until late. I think this will be a college player, likely a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Brendan Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
A few names shuffled around late Sunday, and now one of the Rangers’ top targets will be available. Marek Houston is also in the mix here.
I think Hall and Carlson are the targets here, but neither will make it to the pick, so Cunningham will become the pick, narrowly over Josh Hammond. I was hearing Cunningham would fit more 20-30, and the late chatter is that he has multiple homes in the teens. As with the White Sox, the belief all spring was that the Rangers want a prep hitter here.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
In a last-minute update, I shuffled four players and Witherspoon fits here as a solid value.
Irish is in play at most picks starting at No. 2 all the way down to the middle of the first round, but I think his slide would stop here. The Giants have long been tied to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a long shot at this pick, but gone by their next one), with Andrew Fischer getting some love as well.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25
I think this pick will come down to Cunningham or Sean Gamble in this situation; Gamble could make it to their next pick.
The Rays are tied to prep position players for later picks and could pull a shocker, as I projected in my previous mock, by taking Jaden Fauske here.
I think Hall, Carlson and Cunningham are the main targets, but none of them is available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have a chance to land Fauske at their next pick.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
I’ll stick with Fien here as one of the steadiest projections all spring. It sounds like Tyler Bremner will be the pick if he gets here, but that’s now looking unlikely.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
Kilen fits the type of prospect the Twins have targeted for a while. I could see Houston, Caden Bodine or Gage Wood being options here, too.
Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
I think the Cubs are targeting in-game power here, and Hammond makes a lot of sense. They’ve scouted Quentin Young pretty hard this spring as well, but this is too early for that kind of risk. Xavier Neyens, Wehiwa Aloy and Wood all fit, as well.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
I think Cunningham is the target here, but he isn’t available in this scenario. Hammond and Bodine are also mentioned here and I think Slater de Brun will be the selection at Arizona’s next pick.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
LaViolette should go in one of the next three picks and fits Baltimore’s style. He won’t get to the Orioles’ next pick, but they may be able to float targets down there with their extra pool muscle, as covered in the previous mock.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
Summerhill has a very unclear and wide range of teams that are interested but could fit here. Daniel Pierce, Houston, Bodine and Coy James are all in the mix for this pick.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think LaViolette, Neyens, Southisene and Aloy are all in the mix here, along with possible underslot deals for Davalan or de Brun.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
It now looks like Bremner won’t get here, but the Braves have been tied to Wood for about a month. Otherwise, the hit-first shortstops like Houston and Pierce are tied here.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Hammond seems to be the target, but he doesn’t make it to K.C. in this edition. I think the Royals will take a prep pitcher with one of their high picks, likely either Watson or Fisher, and maybe another later on Day 1. Eyanson and Wood are two college arms being considered.
Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69
James has a good shot at being a Tiger, and some of Detroit’s primary options go right ahead of this spot in this scenario, so I think this could be a curveball pick to most viewers.
Fauske is another possibility here, along with Kruz Schoolcraft, Pierce, Watson, Dax Kilby (more at their next pick), de Brun (same), Southisene and Fischer.
Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
Rank: 45
There’s lots of late momentum for Eyanson here, which is counter to the history of A.J. Preller’s time making picks for the Padres, so I’m going out on a limb.
Kilby on a cut, Young, Schoolcraft, Alec Blair, Josh Owens and de Brun all seem like high schoolers in the mix here.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Philly normally takes high-ceiling high school players, but this is too good of a value to pass up. Matthew Fisher, Sean Gamble and Blair are the leading prep targets, and Fischer is also mentioned.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
Kane Kepley on a big cut, Devin Taylor on a smaller one, Kilby and Watson are all options here.
Note: No. 27 is the final pick of the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. You can read mock draft 3.0 for my thinking and potential targets for teams making the comp and second-round picks that follow and see the full draft order here.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
34. Detroit Tigers: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
37. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
39. New York Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
40: Los Angeles Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
43. Miami Marlins: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Athletics: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
49. Washington Nationals: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
64. Cleveland Guardians: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Dickinson, 2B, LSU
69. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Michigan State
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: Easton Carmichael, C, Oklahoma
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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