
‘I love October’: Why Bryce Harper is built for the postseason spotlight
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7 months agoon
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Jeff Passan, ESPNOct 4, 2024, 06:30 AM ET
Close- ESPN MLB insider
Author of “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports”
PHILADELPHIA — Inside Bryce Harper‘s basement on a recent Saturday morning, his son wanted dad to watch his Hot Wheels races, and his daughter was hungry and needed a bagel, and the baby had just unleashed a volcanic spit-up on him for the second time in five minutes, and amid the chaos, the calls for his attention, the tugs in every direction, Harper exuded calm. Considering the environment in which Harper plies his trade — 40,000 people bleating, praying and exhorting him to carry the Philadelphia Phillies back to Major League Baseball’s mountaintop — the smaller audience posed no problem.
Harper swiped the regurgitation off his hoodie, snagged a plate full of breakfast, cheered for the orange car with the racing stripe and, when those duties were completed, sank into the couch and trained his eyes on the TV broadcasting “College GameDay.” He’s a die-hard college football fan — a logo for Ohio State, where his wife, Kayla, played soccer, adorned his sweatshirt — and its return, as much as the leaves changing colors, signaled to Harper a new season and the arrival of his favorite month.
“I love October,” Harper said. It’s football and Halloween and his birthday, yes, but they’re all secondary to him getting another crack at fulfilling his purpose. That’s how Harper sees it at least. Everything he is — someone ripe to be chewed up and spit out by the machine that makes sports stars but instead met the hype — prepares him for October, equips him with the intellectual and emotional and spiritual tools to match the physical capabilities that were never in question.
All of it converges again Saturday, when the Phillies host the New York Mets in Game 1 of the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park. It will mark Harper’s 50th career postseason game, 30 of them coming the past two seasons, when he has been the best playoff performer in the game. First in hits, first in home runs, first in runs, first in OPS. They’re not just numbers that reflect the Phillies’ success. They are the engine for it.
“When opponents hear his name being called over the PA and they hear the walkup music and they see him walking to the plate, their heart starts fluttering,” Phillies leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber said. “We all laugh about it, right? But everyone always thinks that something cool’s going to happen. We all think that because he’s proven it.”
Harper’s reverence in the baseball world has been hard-earned. He has lived an inimitable baseball life: a pre-social media celebrity at 15 years old who dropped out of high school to play junior college baseball, proved worthy enough to go No. 1 overall in the draft at 17 years old, reached the major leagues at 19, won an MVP at 22, did it again at 28 and now, on the cusp of his 32nd birthday, is missing only one thing from his Hall of Fame résumé.
The Phillies were two games from a World Series title in 2022. Their return engagement last season flamed out in the NL Championship Series against Arizona. Now they are loaded: the bats, the gloves, the starters, the bullpen — as well-rounded a team as exists in this baseball landscape suffused with parity. And he is the one to whom his teammates turn for the big hit, the big moment, because he has shown he’s worthy of it.
“He’s actively looking for the situation. He wants it,” said Trea Turner, his teammate with the Washington Nationals who followed him in signing a $300-million-plus free agent deal with Philadelphia. “I think everybody wants to be the hero, but I think he’s a notch above that in the sense that he desires it. And I don’t think you can teach that. I’ve heard him say before that some people are scared to be great, and that’s obviously not him. He wants to be great.”
In baseball, greatness is forged in the everyday grind, and with a game to be played, daddy day care time wound to an end. Harper’s 5-year-old son, Krew, asked if he’d see Harper in the clubhouse after the game, and Harper answered affirmatively, as long as the Phillies won. His 3-year-old daughter, Brooklyn, accompanied Krew outside to sit on the brick ledge as Harper pulled his truck out of the garage and backed out of the driveway. They smiled and waved and sent him off to another day of work, another day closer to October, to the moments he spends the entire regular-season waiting for.
“Your heart’s beating, racing a little bit, and you’ve got the butterflies, and especially Game 1, man,” Harper said. “You go into Game 1 in the NLCS or the NLDS, and you’re sitting there, and the planes are flying over, and the anthem’s going, and you’re like, damn, dude. It feels like Opening Day again. And I think that’s a cool thing, too. It’s a clean slate.
“You have a good year, you have a bad year, you have the worst year of your career — I couldn’t care less about what you did during the season. Does not matter. Because if you have a great 11 games, then you’re going to be remembered for that. You’re not going to be remembered for the year that you had. You’re not going to be remembered for anything else. That’s what you’re going to be remembered for. Remembered forever.”
ON THE 15-MINUTE ride from Harper’s suburban New Jersey home to the ballpark, he can’t stop talking about Philadelphia. He has spent nearly as many years here (six) as he did in Washington (seven), and Harper remains as smitten with the city as ever. When he signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies, Harper vowed not to be a carpetbagger. So he roots for the Birds and Sixers and Flyers. He wears cleats and headbands festooned with the Wawa logo. The only thing that would make him more Philly is naming a child “Jawn.” And as much as he wants a championship for himself, he regards it as a communal act, a giveback for the embrace fans bestow upon him.
“At the end of the day, they want to see us win,” Harper said. “And if we’re winning, they’re winning. They can sit there and go, screw you to Boston, screw you to New York, screw you to L.A. They have that demeanor. That’s just how they are. They can hold it over their buddy’s head in New York or Boston because we beat ’em that week. You know how sports are, man.
“That’s the coolest thing about being here and being part of it, and you don’t fully understand it until you’re here. It takes a different mindset to play in this place. And I wanted to do it.”
This place turns into something else in October. The sun sets and the air turns crisp, and all of the negative connotations of past Philadelphia fandom — battery chucking and booing Santa — have evolved into a civilized version of mania. “October baseball here is a performance,” Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos said.
There are sing-alongs. (“October is a crazy, crazy time here,” said Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott, whose grand slam in the immediate aftermath of the whole stadium feting him with his walkup song became a signature moment of last postseason. It has become — and Philadelphians might scoff at this, but it’s true — almost wholesome.
And yet it’s still a horror show for visitors. The decibel levels, whether the constant din or peak madness, are unmatched in baseball, though that really happened only years after Harper’s arrival.
The Phillies had booked six consecutive losing seasons when they signed him. The turnaround wasn’t immediate. They were 81-81 in Harper’s first season, didn’t make the playoffs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and missed again at 82-80 the next year. Before the 2022 season, they signed Schwarber, and that September, the Eagles’ home opener on Monday night aligned with a Phillies off day. A group, including Harper and Schwarber, went to the game and came away inspired. This is what the Bank can sound like. This is energy we need to arouse. They won their first six postseason games at the Bank in October 2022, and they won their first five last year. This year, their 54-27 record at the Bank was the best home mark in MLB.
That’s why Harper pulled into the parking lot before that Saturday game in September and couldn’t wait to go to work.
“I love it. I get here, and it’s so calming for me,” Harper said. “There’s nothing that irritates me. It’s just baseball. I’m a Philadelphia Phillie. I love it. Every day.”
“Calming is not the word a normal person would use,” Stott said. “But he knows this is home now, and this is where he is going to be. And I think that’s just a calming presence, even though the surrounding noise and fans and cheers is not calm at all.”
“When those moments come in the postseason or late in the year, there’s nothing like it,” Harper said. “I feel like there’s times where it’s in slow motion and I feel like the — I don’t know. It’s hard to explain because I’ve been playing baseball for a long time, and I’ve had those moments since I was 10, 11, 12 years old of slowing the game down.
“After 23, 24 years of competitive baseball, since I was 7 years old, I still love every part of the competitiveness.”
HARPER IS NOT exaggerating. His formative years were spent in youth travel baseball, where he traversed the country on weekends as a baseball mercenary for different elite teams. An enormous child, already 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds at 12, Harper unleashed a fastball that touched 80 mph and a swing that crushed home runs. Baby fat covered Harper’s face in the same way his beard does now, both ringing a mischievous grin he looses around teammates.
In 2005, Harper joined a team from Colorado at the Triple Crown World Series in Steamboat Springs. In the gold-medal game, he pitched the final inning with the crowd “screaming and yelling and saying things to a 12-year-old kid that you probably shouldn’t say.” This was three years before he graced the cover of Sports Illustrated, and they still knew who he was.
“So I ended up getting the outs,” Harper said. “We win the game, and I came off the field, and I was bawling, crying because the situation was just so intense. I wasn’t mad. I wasn’t happy. I wasn’t upset. It was just a pure adrenaline rush of emotion. And I loved it. I loved all those opportunities. I loved all those moments. I loved the feeling of that.”
The Bryce Harper who finds calm in chaos — this is where he was built. During a childhood of being berated, doubted, questioned, derided. Harper’s capacity to ignore nonsense and process magnitude emerged early enough in his life that by the time he was 15 years old, everything that typically pollutes the mind of a teenaged baseball player no longer applied to him. He strode into showcase events knowing he was the best player there. He turned competition into fans. When Harper was 15, Castellanos, now his Phillies teammate, saw him at an event at Florida International University. With one swing, Harper converted him. “I can hit ’em,” Castellanos said. “I hit ’em farther than all my friends. But damn. I can’t hit it that far.”
A year later, they were teammates on the under-18 U.S. national team that won gold at the Pan Am Games in Venezuela. A few months after that, Harper dropped out of high school, earned his GED and enrolled at a local junior college, all in an effort to get draft eligible a year early. He hit 31 home runs in 66 games, was the slam dunk top pick and signed with the Nationals for $9.9 million. Harper spent a year in the minor leagues, joined the Nationals in May 2012 and finished the season with the most wins above replacement on a 98-win team that captured the NL East crown. Harper had no business being as good as he was.
“It’s the same thing,” Turner said, “with LeBron [James]. They’re so good at such a young age and then it’s kind of expected of you, but when they’re good people and it doesn’t go to their head — that’s the more impressive part. There’s so many things that could have gone wrong, and it’s a really negative way of thinking about it. But, I mean, think about how many things that people do at 19, 20 that are just stupid.”
Not everything went right immediately. Over the first four games of Harper’s first postseason, the 2012 division series against St. Louis, he went 1-for-18 with six strikeouts. Then in the decisive Game 5, he tripled in the first inning to stake Washington a 1-0 lead, homered in the third off starter Adam Wainwright to extend the lead to 3-0 and saw all those years of preparation beginning to translate in October.
“That was kind of like, man, I can do this,” Harper said. “The moment’s not too big, obviously. It was kind of a stepping stone. And then each year after that, it got better.”
Two years after that infamous 2012 season in which the Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg for the postseason and surrendered a six-run lead in the division series’ deciding game, Washington again faltered in the playoffs, blowing home-field advantage in a division series loss to eventual World Series champion San Francisco. Harper was the only National who hit, launching three home runs. Two more division series losses ended his time in Washington without a single series win, and it was only the year after Harper left that the Nationals made an improbable run to a World Series victory.
In Philadelphia, Harper found the best version of himself. Consider what is widely regarded as the best at-bat of his life, in Game 5 of the 2022 NLCS, against Padres closer Robert Suarez. Before he left the dugout to hit in the eighth inning, Harper looked at hitting coach Kevin Long and told him: “I’m going to go deep here.” Attempting the herculean task of ignoring everything percolating in the air at the Bank, Harper called multiple timeouts before the first pitch was even thrown.
“You rewatch that at-bat, and it’s incredibly impressive,” Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham said. “There’s no one else. It’s just him and a dance with the pitcher. It’s literally what it looks like. There’s no distraction. There’s no nothing. It looks like there’s not even a thought. It’s just he’s completely wrapped up in this moment, in this game with this guy on the mound with a lot of belief.”
Suarez believed for a reason. His fastball was sizzling. First 96 mph and fouled off. Then 97 for a ball. Then 98 and 100 and 99 foul, foul, foul. Next came the moment. Finally Suarez thought he had Harper cheating fastball and uncorked a changeup. Not any old changeup but a diabolical 91 mph dirtseeker that would have induced swings and misses from the vast majority of professional hitters, and Harper instead watched it go by.
On the next pitch, a 99 mph sinker dotted on the outside corner, Harper unleashed what announcer Joe Davis called “the swing of his life.” Seven pitches into the most consequential at-bat of his career, he hammered the final one to the opposite field for a home run.
“That’s what great hitters do,” Cotham said. “They just find a way, and you never know why they did it or were they sitting on it, but to me, it’s wrapped up in the game, being one with the game and in this dance — truly part of this thing.”
Schwarber is perhaps the closest facsimile in the Phillies’ clubhouse to Harper in terms of his reverence of the postseason, and its imminence awakens something within him.
“The biggest thing is allowing the game to slow down,” Schwarber said. “Because if you can tick back everything when it’s the most important moment of that game, slow everything down, take the noise out, realize that the pitcher’s out there and recognize his heart rate’s going, too, you’re just putting yourself in a better position.”
Schwarber leaned back and grinned. Nobody gets paid in October, Schwarber said, and he’s right: Even if players do receive playoff shares that, for the championship-winning team, can amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars, their full paychecks stop at the end of the regular season.
“So you’re going out there for one reason,” Schwarber said. “It’s just the purest form of baseball that can be played.”
CHAMPIONSHIP WINDOWS CLOSE quickly. It’s a lesson the Philadelphia Phillies learned the last time they won a championship in 2008. They ran it back one too many times, and a half-decade-long collapse followed. That it led them to Harper — to this time when baseball in Philadelphia feels so damn alive — offers some solace. But it’s also a cautionary tale understood by Harper, who studies the rhythms and history of sports with the assiduousness of a scholar.
Harper aspires to play until he’s 42 years old — another decade, and beyond his contract, which expires when he is 39. That’s because he wants as many opportunities as possible at winning; he can’t forget how Dan Marino made the Super Bowl in his first season, lost and never got back. Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto are free agents after next season, and in 2026, the Phillies are set to pay almost $160 million to six players — Harper, Turner, Castellanos and pitchers Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker — whose average age then will be 33.8.
It’s why getting on track before October arrived this year was so imperative for Harper. Heading into that September Saturday, he hadn’t homered in 30 games, the second-longest streak of his career. The surging Mets jumped out to a 4-0 lead that day, Sept. 14. Harper finally homered in the fourth inning to cut the deficit to 4-1, and two innings later, he blasted a two-run shot to further erode a lead that the Mets eventually would blow in a loss to the Phillies. After the game, Krew and Brooklyn came into the locker room, just like daddy promised, and all of the responsibilities in his life, the things that matter, were aligning in his place of calm.
“And I feel that, right?” he said. “I want to carry this team. With the guys that we have, I don’t have to, obviously. I have to play Bryce Harper baseball. They need me to do that, but that’s all year. That’s not just the postseason. That’s every day. That’s a Saturday against the Mets in September, right?”
Never, during the homerless drought, did Harper panic. Even before the two homers, his swing felt fine, and by the end of the season, his numbers aligned almost perfectly with recent seasons: .285/.373/.525 with 30 home runs, 87 RBIs and a career-high 42 doubles. He has learned not to chase results, lest he fall out of whack mechanically. More than that, it’s a good lesson for the postseason ahead, when the starting pitching is always better and the relief arms significantly so and hitters face a choice. He tries to teach this to the Phillies’ younger players, just as veterans, such as Jayson Werth with Washington, and coaches, such as Joe Dillon in Philadelphia, taught him.
“We always talked about really good players doing bad in the postseason,” Harper said. “It happens because they start chasing or they’re not taking their walks or they don’t have the confidence in the ability of the guy behind them. When you start playing for things that are bigger than you — playing for your team — all that stuff goes out the door.”
“No offense to 162 games,” Schwarber said. “You play 162 games to the end. And then nothing matters except winning a baseball game. And this isn’t about how many home runs you hit. This isn’t about how many RBIs you have. This isn’t what your batting average is. This is about trying to find a way to win a baseball game. And that’s why the best baseball games are in the postseason. When you put special players in environments that are going to be like that, you’re going to see a really good version of that player. Don’t get me wrong. There’s some people who get put in those scenarios and can’t handle it.”
Harper refuses to let himself be anything less than the best version of that player, aware that to be ready for the moment takes more than work or commitment or desire or any other bare-minimum elements. Harper wants to constantly evolve, a difficult threshold when you’re 31 and it’s not as easy to stay in shape as it once was and the baby is puking on you and you’ve got to wake up and jump in the godforsaken cool tub again.
“It’s 39 degrees and I do it for three minutes,” Harper said. “It’s the hardest thing I do all day. I’m not kidding. I sit there and I contemplate my life every single time. I try to get in there and I scream and yell at myself inside, and I’m just like, all right, get in. And so I get in, it’s three minutes and I’m out.”
Pain is gain, and so many of Harper’s days consist of the minuscule rituals or customs he has adopted to maintain his health. The Phillies cannot afford to lose him, so he tailors his life toward ensuring that will not happen. Harper does not eat anything with artificial dyes or seed oils. All of his bread and pasta is homemade. When he’s on the road, he consumes only meat and fruit. He loves Pilates. He arrives at the stadium about four hours before the game instead of the 6½ that used to be his standard and goes right into the trainer’s room to meet up with the Phillies’ massage therapist for a 30-minute calming treatment.
And his body feels like it did when he was a kid and invincible. He’s at 216 or 217 pounds, somewhere between his ESPN the Magazine Body Issue weight (203) and the most yoked version of himself (240). This, he’d like to believe, is his championship weight, perfect to carry him through the postseason, when he’ll take his walks and shorten up his swing to avoid strikeouts and tiptoe the razor-thin line between aggressive and excessive on the basepaths. He will call home runs and hit them, and he will sing along with fans that he, too, is A-O, A-OK. He will do everything he can to represent Philadelphia while knowing that the greatest way to represent Philadelphia is by winning.
“Your superstar players have to show up,” Harper said, and for him, the superstar, that’s what this is really about. It’s the intersection of the calmness with the chaos, the comfort that 40,000 raucous souls are screaming and the contentment in not hearing a single one of them. It is Philadelphia, and it is October, and it is 11 wins away from forever.
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Sports
How Mikko Rantanen impacts the Stars’ Stanley Cup hopes — in 2025 and well beyond
Published
2 hours agoon
April 21, 2025By
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Ryan S. ClarkApr 21, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Ryan S. Clark is an NHL reporter for ESPN.
Every NHL franchise would be elated to select one player who could become a franchise defenseman, a franchise forward or a franchise goaltender in a single draft class.
The Dallas Stars found all three in 2017.
Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger have developed into franchise cornerstones, which has played a significant role in the Stars becoming a perennial Stanley Cup challenger.
This is why Stars general manager Jim Nill and his front office staff have typically been averse to trading away from draft picks.
That’s also what made Nill’s decision at the trade deadline so jarring: The Stars traded a pair of first-round picks, three second-round picks and onetime prized prospect Logan Stankoven for Mikko Rantanen.
While the Stars made a statement by adding another franchise winger, the trade also signaled that the Stars are entering a new frontier — deviating from the blueprint that allowed them to be a championship contender in the first place.
“It’s two things: It’s where our team’s at, and it’s Mikko Rantanen,” Nill said. “A lot of times when you go into a trade, it’s for an older player that has two or three years left in his career.
“Mikko is in the prime of his career. He’s one of the elite power forwards in the game, and with where we’re drafting, when do you get a chance to get a player like that? Just because of unique circumstances, he was available.”
After trading for Rantanen, the Stars signed him to an eight-year contract extension worth $12 million annually. That commitment further amplifies how the Stars believe Rantanen can help them win the Stanley Cup that has eluded them since 1999.
But how did the proverbial stars align for Dallas to get Rantanen? What made the Stars comfortable moving away from the foundational strategy of draft-and-develop? And after the current playoff run, what does Rantanen’s presence mean in the short and long term?
“Of course, [trading for Rantanen] sends a message that they’re backing us with the chance that we have to do something special,” Stars defenseman Esa Lindell said. “It’s a chance to win, and that brings expectations to succeed.”
RANTANEN PLAYED FOR the division rival Colorado Avalanche throughout his career, which meant that Nill and others within the Stars’ front office had a close view of his ascent to stardom. They thought he was one of the best players in the NHL but never thought it was possible that he could be a Dallas Star.
“You’re not even looking in [Rantanen’s] direction when you’re analyzing your team and trying to make changes,” Nill said. “It was never really even an option for us.”
Until it did become an option — and even then, the Stars weren’t so sure.
When Rantanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 24, the Stars’ front office still didn’t regard him as potentially available to them because the Canes were also in a championship window.
Rantanen scored six points in 13 games for the Hurricanes. But with each week that passed without him signing a contract extension with Carolina, the speculation increased that the Hurricanes could move him again in order to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency in the summer.
“I would say about two weeks before the trade deadline, they started to make some calls just to see what the market was,” Nill said. “We were one of the teams they called to see if there was interest, and then with about a week to 10 days before the trade deadline, we said, ‘You know what? Let’s look at it,’ but still not thinking that was the direction we were going to go.”
Pragmatism remains the principle that guides Nill.
Even before the Stars could devise a trade package, they needed a number of factors to work in their favor. For instance, if Rantanen had become available last season, there was no way they could have made it work financially because of their cap situation.
This season, injuries to Tyler Seguin and Heiskanen meant the pair’s combined $18.3 million cap hit provided wiggle room. That flexibility is how the Stars were able to take on the full freight of Cody Ceci‘s and Mikael Granlund‘s contracts in a trade with the San Jose Sharks on Feb. 1.
Yet the Stars needed more help fitting Rantanen’s contract onto their books, which made the first trade with the Avs and Canes even more crucial. Rantanen, who earns $9.25 million annually, had 50% of his salary retained by the Chicago Blackhawks in that first trade, which meant he’d be joining the Stars at a team-friendly $4.625 million prorated for the rest of the season.
“A lot of factors came into play where we’re sitting there saying, ‘A year ago, we couldn’t do that because he makes this much money and we didn’t have injuries,'” Nill said. “But now that there was a different scenario? An opportunity was there to make it work, and that’s when we got more serious.”
The Stars already had a dynamic that worked, with the bulk of their core group being younger than 26. They had a seemingly annual tradition of introducing a homegrown prospect who went from promising talent to NHL contributor. It was proof their farm-to-table model worked, while also ensuring a level of cap certainty.
So what made Nill and the Stars feel like this was the time to upend that approach? Especially with some of those homegrown prospects, such as Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston, going from their team-friendly, entry-level deals to being significant earners on their second contracts?
“You’re not only looking at this year, but when you’re making a major commitment to a player like that trade-wise and asset-wise, you’re probably going to want to sign him,” Nill said. “That’s when we had to sit down and look at what direction we could go with our team here. We got some major players taking some pay hikes that they deserve, and that’s when we asked, ‘How can we make this fit?'”
1:09
‘It’s nuts!’ Stars acquire Mikko Rantanen from Hurricanes
The “TradeCentre” crew gives their instant reaction to the shocking news that Mikko Rantanen has been traded to the Dallas Stars.
CHAMPIONSHIP WINDOWS DON’T last long, and there’s always change.
Just ask Robertson. Even though he’s only 25 years old, he’s an example of how much change the Stars have encountered since their streak of three conference finals in five years started in 2020.
Robertson played three regular-season games the 2019-20 season and was a taxi-squad member who never appeared in the playoffs. But technically, he’s one of only seven players on the current roster who played at least one game from that season. It’s a group that also includes Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Seguin, Heiskanen, Lindell and Harley. Oettinger was also a taxi-squad player but never appeared in any games in the 2020 playoff bubble.
“That next year, we didn’t make the playoffs and we kind of made a shift onto new players,” Robertson said. “It was my second year, and we were just trying to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. My third year, [head coach] Pete [DeBoer] comes in with a new staff and a lot of new players too. I don’t know what our expectations were, but we just wanted to make the playoffs.”
Nill said what allowed the Stars to transition from the Benn-Seguin era to where they are now was a farm system that provided key players on team-friendly contracts.
As those players have turned into veteran regulars, the Stars must now get creative with the cap and balance the difficult decisions that lie ahead.
While that’s a consideration every perennial title challenger faces at some point, Rantanen’s arrival accelerated that timeline for Dallas. Before the trade, the Stars were slated to enter the upcoming offseason with more than $17 million in cap space. It was more than enough to re-sign pending UFAs such as Benn and Matt Duchene, while having the space to add elsewhere in free agency, too.
And that was with Oettinger going from $4 million this season to $8.25 million over the next three years while Johnston, who was a pending restricted free agent, also signed a three-year deal carrying an annual $8.4 million cap hit.
The addition of Rantanen’s contract means the Stars will have $5.32 million in cap space, per PuckPedia. That has raised the possibility that Benn, Duchene and Evgenii Dadonov (along with Ceci and Granlund) might not be back, and that the Stars could be limited in free agency.
There’s another way to look at the Stars’ short- and long-term situation. Benn noted the fact that they are in this position lets players know that the front office believes in them so much that it was worth changing its philosophy to get Rantanen and have him in Dallas for the better part of a decade.
“I think it shows confidence in the group that we have and what we’ve been doing this year,” Benn said. “Our draft picks over the last few years have set us up to succeed. When you make a move like that for a player like Mikko, it gives your group a lot of confidence. Now it’s on us as players to take advantage of it.”
So what does that mean for Benn, who is in the final year of his contract, knowing the Stars’ cap situation ahead of next season?
“I don’t see myself playing for anybody else other than this team,” said Benn, who has played his entire 16-year career with the Stars. “Hopefully, it’ll all get figured out this summer, but I am excited for the future of the Stars.”
Sports
Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?
Published
8 hours agoon
April 21, 2025By
admin
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Neil PaineApr 21, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs began, a number of storylines dominated the conversation: Can Connor Hellebuyck turn his historic regular season into a Dominik Hašek-esque postseason run for the ages for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the Colorado Avalanche–Dallas Stars showdown be a quasi-Cup Final right away in Round 1? Is it finally the year for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win it all, after the Edmonton Oilers came so close last season?
But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.
That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.
To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.
The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.
One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.
With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:
Sports
Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Previewing Monday’s four-game slate
Published
10 hours agoon
April 21, 2025By
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Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.
Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:
What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down last night, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 1 | 7 p.m., ESPN
You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.
In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.
Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 7:30 p.m., ESPN2
The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.
The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.
Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m., ESPN
The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.
Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 1 | 10 p.m., ESPN2
This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?
L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.
The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.
Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday
For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.
Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)
Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.
Sunday’s results
Hurricanes 4, Devils 1
Carolina leads 1-0
The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.
0:44
Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
Maple Leafs 6, Senators 2
Toronto leads 1-0
The first skirmish in the Battle of Ontario goes to the home side, as the Leafs never let the Senators get very close in this one. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mitch Marner scored in the first, John Tavares and William Nylander tallied in the second, while Morgan Rielly and Matthew Knies put the game away in the third. Drake Batherson and Ridly Greig — scorer of a controversial empty-net goal against Toronto in 2024 — scored for Ottawa. Full recap.
0:42
William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead
William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.
Golden Knights 4, Wild 2
Vegas leads 1-0
In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.
0:31
Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal
Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.
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