Will Oregon’s offense tailor-made for Dillon Gabriel pay off?
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Paolo Uggetti, ESPN
EUGENE, Ore. — It’s a midsummer day in July, and Oregon‘s present and future at the quarterback position are fittingly passing each other inside the brightly lit hallways of the Marcus Mariota Performance Center.
Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore dap each other up and go their separate ways. Gabriel, the 23-year-old from Hawai’i who has been in college since 2019 and is about to play for his third program. Moore, the 19-year-old who was born in Cleveland, played high school football in Detroit and is suiting up for his second season on his second team.
Despite being at different stages of their career, Gabriel and Moore found common ground in what appealed to them about Oregon — a place where they had seen a quarterback like Bo Nix become the best version of himself while winning.
Gabriel’s journey is a peculiar one. He went from Oahu to UCF before making his way to Oklahoma and eventually, back toward the Pacific. It made him one of the longer tenured players in the sport and one of the most experienced. Over the course of six seasons, Gabriel has thrown 1,831 passes for over 16,000 yards. For reference, Oklahoma State‘s Alan Bowman — who has been in college since 2018 — has thrown for 6,000 fewer yards.
“It’s hard to find that type of experience,” offensive coordinator Will Stein said. “Everywhere he goes, he wins. He won in high school, he has won in college. He’s played in the biggest settings in college football.”
For Stein and head coach Dan Lanning, the option to bring in Gabriel was a no-brainer. His Hawaiian roots and experience watching former Oregon great and Hawai’i native Marcus Mariota was a bonus. For Gabriel, however, his first decision following his most productive season yet while at Oklahoma was whether or not to go to the NFL. As Gabriel explained it, once he decided to forego the draft, he wanted to make a different move. Oklahoma had been great for him, but with his offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby leaving to take a head-coaching job at Mississippi State and the Sooners being a younger team, he decided to find a new home.
“It wasn’t the best timing,” Gabriel said of Oklahoma. “But when it came to Oregon, I’ve never been so decisive and clear of what I wanted. When I was on the phone with them, I was already envisioning myself there.”
The Ducks are 5-0 this season as Gabriel is well on his way to another season of over 3,000 passing yards while being the most efficient quarterback in the country. However, Oregon has also shown it’s not quite operating at the level that it did with Nix last season. Though they are back at No. 3 in the AP poll, the Ducks dropped after struggling to beat Idaho and Boise State early in their first two games. Key statistics like red zone conversion and explosive plays from scrimmage are down from 2023, too.
“We can be better,” Lanning said after the Ducks’ win over Oregon State. After taking down UCLA, he reiterated the notion. “I see all the things we can get better at,” he said when asked about the win.
With No. 2 Ohio State coming to Eugene this week for what could be the biggest matchup in the new-look Big Ten this season, Gabriel is about to lead Oregon on a stretch of games that includes at least three ranked teams and another rival in Washington as it hopes to not just reach the College Football Playoff for the first time under Lanning, but also put itself in a position to win it all. As Lanning has said before, those are the expectations in Eugene. It’s part of why Gabriel transferred teams for one last ride.
“I had clear goals for myself and that’s winning a national championship and putting myself in the best spot to do so,” Gabriel said. “You get all you want here — the offensive fit, the surrounding cast and the team and a coach who believes and that chance to win the national championship.”
THE THREAD THAT is attempting to connect Nix to Gabriel and eventually to Moore is Will Stein.
Former offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham may have been part of what brought Nix to Eugene, but after he left for the Arizona State head-coaching gig, Stein was able to seamlessly pick up where he left off and help Nix put together a Heisman-worthy season in 2023.
You don’t have to spend too much time talking to Stein to realize that he’s a football-obsessed mind. Stein is pragmatic about how to run an offense and though that doesn’t mean he isn’t flexible with his approach, it does bring about a palpable confidence to what he does. As he put it, Gabriel has bought in since Day 1, because he knows this is an opportunity to run a “pro-style offense that will translate to the next level.”
“And we’ll run an offense that has been successful at every stop I’ve been at,” Stein said.
As soon as Oregon received a commitment from Gabriel, the former co-offensive coordinator at UTSA went back and watched all of Gabriel’s previous college games to see what schemes he thrived in, which ones he didn’t and how they could fit into the offense that Stein had already established in Eugene.
“It’s hard to put a label on what we do because we kind of do a little bit of everything. … We like to look complex, but we’re really pretty simple,” Stein said, describing his offense as one that can be nimble to different personnel groupings, formations and different quarterbacks. “Going back to the Chip [Kelly] days, which is high octane, high tempo, limited formation spread. We’re really not that, like we have that ability, we do a lot of that, but when you get down to the core of what we are, we’re as pro style as anybody else.”
The one thing that is certain inside Stein’s system is this: His offense gives the quarterback plenty of freedom, but also the responsibility of getting the offense “in good plays and out of bad plays.” It’s why filling that void left behind by Nix with a player like Gabriel and planning for the future with Moore was so crucial.
“He knew how to tailor the offense around Bo,” Moore, who was initially committed to Oregon before flipping to UCLA, said of Stein. “He adjusted it. He tailored it to him. Dillon, he comes in and says he likes this, he’s going to tailor it around him. Me coming in too, he’s going to tailor the offense around you.”
Nix, Stein said, was a phenomenal processor of information, giving him the ability to handle all the pre-snap motions, scheme changes and protections. To maintain that level of competence on that side of the ball, they needed someone who could jump in and process things quickly, someone who had already seen a lot before.
“It’s like talking to that graduate-level student, you know, compared to freshman,” Stein said of a player with as much experience as Gabriel. “He’s seen a lot of defenses over his career. He has played in big moments, but there’s still a process to it. His command of the offense has to be of the utmost importance for us to function at a high level.”
Stein said that some of the initial learning may have been outside of Gabriel’s comfort zone. But his willingness to learn — through repetition and trial and error — meant that as the first game of the season approached, they had now installed the offense three separate times, and both of them felt as comfortable as they could have on such a fast timeline.
“I’ve been in the McDonald’s menu where you may have the number one, but there’s more to memorize,” Gabriel said of the different offensive approaches he’s encountered. “But then I’ve also been in the Bible verse era, they tell every single person what to do, but you’re able to be much more clear on communicating every single thing. So it’s just a mixture. Whatever gets the job done.”
Whether it’s a playcalling style that’s more intricate or one that’s simpler, Gabriel has experienced it all. In Eugene, Gabriel said, learning the offense has been complex but not unfamiliar. If anything, it’s similar concepts with different terms, and he knows that the elaborate nature of the offense is also what allows him to have more control over it.
So far, the results have been both undeniable — five wins, an average of 458 yards per game and 35 points per game — but not quite an encore of last season, where Nix and Co. averaged 531 yards and 44 points per game while boasting the eighth best red zone touchdown conversion rate in the country. This year, the Ducks are 45th in that stat.
Still, it’s hard to nitpick Gabriel’s production (1,449 yards, 11 touchdowns). Like Nix last season, Oregon’s offense has produced the most efficient quarterback in the country. Gabriel’s 77.8 completion rate tops all quarterbacks so far this season (Nix finished at 77.4 last year), even those who have nearly half the passing attempts he does.
“Dylan’s been extremely efficient,” Lanning said after Oregon’s win over UCLA. “It’s all him. He’s the one making every play. None of these coaches get to go make any of those plays.”
For all the talk about Stein’s scheme or Gabriel’s experience, even Moore’s potential, Lanning’s rhetoric during most postgames is a reminder that none of it matters without execution. Without being able to conjure up another year of eligibility for Nix, getting a quarterback who has executed at a high level for five full seasons now like Gabriel was the next best thing. And now, with Moore in the system as a sophomore and former No. 2 overall recruit, Oregon is hoping it can have a longer runway to develop a quarterback in their image.
“I think after his freshman year [Moore] realized that maybe the decision he made wasn’t what he wanted to do originally,” Stein said. “We wanted to make his original dreams to play here come true. And when you can add and improve your team at a spot that you feel is like a positional need in the future, you do it. It’s just like free agency in the NFL. We have the opportunity here to do that.”
TEZ JOHNSON IS smiling.
Oregon has just handled UCLA 34-13 at the Rose Bowl and Gabriel is sitting to his left after throwing for three touchdowns — two of them caught by Johnson. Gabriel’s 10 incompletions in the game are the most he has had all season to this point. The week before against Oregon State, Gabriel started the game 15-for-15.
When Johnson, who witnessed Nix’s development into one of the best quarterbacks in the sport while in Eugene firsthand, is asked what he has seen from Gabriel so far this season to give him confidence in the Ducks’ offense going forward, he does not hesitate.
“I see confidence, poise, trusting his teammates,” Johnson said. “And when you got a quarterback like that, it’s always comfortable. … As a receiver you love that because you don’t have to really think of too much. His job is already hard as it is, so we try to make it easy for him.”
Though the scores and the win column tell one story, it hasn’t been all easy for Gabriel and Oregon. The shuffling — by design — of the offensive line early on in the year didn’t seem to put the Ducks in the best position to succeed as Gabriel was sacked seven times in the first two games.
But against Oregon State, Lanning put Iapani Laloulu at center and shuffled the rest of the line around him, sticking with the unit throughout the victory. Since the shift, Gabriel has not been sacked once in the past three games.
It took Nix a full season to reach his full potential inside Oregon’s offense. Much like Gabriel, the best version of the combination between the two parties didn’t happen right away. But if Gabriel and Oregon want to turn this season into something more than just Gabriel’s last and another close call for Lanning, any learning curve must be erased.
There has been marked improvement from Oregon’s offense from its first game to now, but with the undefeated Buckeyes and the stingiest defense in the nation looming, there will be no margin for error.
Oregon has trusted Gabriel with ushering the unit in the footsteps of one of the more productive quarterbacks the school has seen. The first five games were about getting acquainted with what the offense looks like on the field and setting the tone. The next five will determine what kind of season Oregon will have. What may seem like pressure to some is easy for Gabriel to embrace, in this environment more so than most.
“They have complete confidence in me out there and it’s empowering,” Gabriel said. “If s—‘s f—ed up, you want to make it right, you know? The freedom they give me allows us to make it right.”
The 12-team College Football Playoff will again include the five highest-ranked conference champions — a guarantee that expands the pool of candidates to include any team that has a shot at winning its conference.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 32 teams — the most in the CFP era — with at least a 10% chance of reaching the playoff. They come from the Power 4 conferences, the American and the Mountain West, but how many of them can actually win the national title?
“Four or five,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said.
“I’d say there’s eight,” Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer said.
This list will shrink by November, but below it starts with 32 teams ranked in order of their percentage chance to make the playoff. You’ll also see their chance to win the national title, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
The CFP selection committee doesn’t always agree with the computers, though. Here’s a look at how they will view the 32 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the playoff.
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 83.9% | Win national title: 24.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Longhorns should be in — either as the SEC champ, or through an at-large bid. But ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game, and that’s not going to happen with a first-time starting quarterback — no matter what his last name is. There’s an extraordinary amount of pressure on Arch Manning, and while he could lead the Longhorns to the SEC championship, he’s going to need some margin for error along the way. Texas will have four new starting offensive linemen, and it is replacing its top three pass catchers from last season. The Longhorns are a playoff team — but there are too many questions heading into the season opener against Ohio State to declare them a preseason No. 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 at Georgia. Yes, the season opener at Ohio State might be the biggest game of the year, but there will be plenty of time to make up for a loss. History tells us it’s better to lose early than late (See: Notre Dame vs. NIU). The Longhorns’ game at Georgia, though, comes at the most critical point in the season, when the conference standings and a guaranteed first-round CFP bye are within reach.
What the committee will like: Road wins. Texas has ample opportunities to impress the group with tough road wins at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida, plus its annual neutral-site game against rival Oklahoma. That’s the kind of lineup that will help separate the Longhorns from otherwise comparable teams.
What the committee won’t like: A weak September. If Texas loses at Ohio State, there won’t be anything to separate the Longhorns as a true contender heading into October. Texas would likely have a 3-1 September start in that scenario with home wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. Style points will matter, but only so much against unranked, overmatched non-power opponents. That could come back to haunt it in the committee meeting room as the rankings play out — especially if some SEC opponents such as Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t finish as CFP top 25 teams.
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +800
CFP ranking history: 54 appearances, highest at No. 1 (15 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 78.6% | Win national title: 17.9%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Georgia is a playoff team that’s a coin flip with Texas to win the SEC. Like Texas, the Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback and four new offensive linemen. If Georgia is going to repeat as SEC champs and advance deeper into the CFP bracket, though, its receivers have to be more dependable (last season Georgia led Power 4 conference teams in dropped passes) and the Bulldogs need to create more holes in the running game — especially to help out quarterback Gunner Stockton.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. This is the only game on Georgia’s schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs less than a 50% chance to win (49.5%).
What the committee will like: A September to remember. If Georgia can start 4-0 with wins against Tennessee and Alabama, the selection committee will remember those through Selection Day. It could also help Georgia earn a top-four seed even if the Bulldogs finish with one loss to Texas and don’t win the SEC. This assumes the Vols and Bama will finish as CFP top 25 opponents.
What the committee won’t like: Road upsets. Winning at Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State won’t be easy, but if Georgia is a true national title contender, it shouldn’t have a losing road record. The neutral-site game against rival Florida is also a chance to impress the committee away from Athens, but the reality is Georgia has only those three true road games — and should be the favorite on every trip. And three of Georgia’s home games are against non-power opponents Marshall, FCS team Austin Peay and Charlotte.
Last year: 14-2, CFP champion
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (five times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 70.6% | Win national title: 10.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat agree. The defending national champs are again a playoff-caliber team, but before handing them a first-round bye, consider how difficult Ohio State’s schedule is. In addition to the home season opener against Texas, Ohio State has road trips to Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin and rival Michigan — none of which are gimmes. The back-to-back October trips to Illinois and Wisconsin will be trickier than they appear on paper, and Washington should be a better team this fall in the second season under coach Jedd Fisch. ESPN analytics projects Ohio State’s lone regular-season loss will be at home in the season opener against Texas. But Penn State might have something to say about that on Nov. 1 in Columbus.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to prepare for the game that will help determine a spot in the Big Ten championship. While the Big Ten winner will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff, it’s possible the runner-up could join the league champ in the selection committee’s top four and also get a first-round bye as a top-four seed. If Ohio State loses to Texas and Penn State, though — both at home — a bye would be in jeopardy.
What the committee will like: A November to remember. The committee’s first ranking will be released on Nov. 4 — right after Ohio State starts the month against Penn State. If the Buckeyes go 5-0 in November with two wins against CFP top 25 teams, it will help Ohio State compensate for a possible second loss. Ohio State could make a case as the committee’s top two-loss team if the Buckeyes lose to Texas and stumble elsewhere on the road. A close loss to a top 25 Illinois team might not be as bad as it sounds right now — as long as they recover in November.
What the committee won’t like: A second loss to an unranked opponent. It’s not that a team can’t overcome a bad loss, but it could mean the difference between a first-round bye and having to win four straight games to win the national title (again). The committee factors in everything — including where the game was played and how it was won or lost — but the caliber of opponent still matters. If Ohio State were to lose at Washington or Wisconsin, and neither of those teams finish in the CFP top 25, the committee could rank the Buckeyes behind another two-loss contender that suffered a better, close loss. Ohio State learned this last season when it sank four spots following its loss to unranked Michigan.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (24 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 66.2% | Win national title: 10.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Tide will be better in Kalen DeBoer’s second season, but after a four-loss finish last fall, Alabama is going to have to play its way back into top-four contention. With a new starting quarterback and depth questions on the defensive line, Alabama needs to survive September before the playoff predictions begin.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Georgia. If DeBoer is going to get the Tide back to the top of the SEC — and back into the playoff — this would be the game to do it.
What the committee will like: The No. 10 schedule in the country. Alabama was the committee’s top three-loss team last season and ranked No. 11 on Selection Day — that was with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The committee will likely give the Tide some margin for error again considering an SEC lineup that includes trips to Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, plus home games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. And two of the first three nonconference opponents are against Power 5 teams Florida State and Wisconsin. At worst, Alabama should be 3-1 with a loss to Georgia heading into the heart of SEC play.
What the committee won’t like: Four losses? Alabama’s No. 11 ranking last season was evidence to the contrary of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s concerns about the committee not valuing the difficulty of playing in the SEC. Had ACC champion Clemson not bumped the Tide out of the playoff, Alabama would have slid into the field with two of the worst losses of the season. For Alabama to be excluded from the playoff again, it likely would have to land in that unlucky No. 11 or No. 12 spot and get bumped — or it would have to fail the eye test along the way.
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +600
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 3
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 63.8% | Win national title: 7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. There’s no excuse for Penn State not to reach the playoff. Penn State can make a case for No. 1 this preseason because it has one thing no other team ranked above it has: a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might also have the best running back tandem in the country in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Plus, defensively, they hired one of the nation’s best coordinators in Jim Knowles, who left Ohio State to take the job. Coach James Franklin faces a burden of proof when it comes to beating the Buckeyes and elite opponents, but this is a roster talented enough to do it.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. Penn State hasn’t won in Columbus in its past six tries. This might be the only ranked opponent the Nittany Lions face in November, when the selection committee is paying the closest attention. Penn State will have home-field advantage against Oregon on Sept. 27.
What the committee will like: A winning record against Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Penn State’s résumé is only as strong as its opponents’, and if the Nittany Lions fail to win at Ohio State (again), they might only have two wins against CFP top 25 teams — Oregon and Indiana (maybe?) — and both are home games. Penn State avoids Illinois and Michigan, which should be two of the league’s better teams this fall, so it needs to take advantage of the few opportunities it has against elite competition.
What the committee won’t like: A weak nonconference schedule. Wins against Nevada, FIU and Villanova aren’t going to help Penn State earn a first-round bye if the Nittany Lions are looking to earn a top-four seed as the Big Ten runner-up. If Penn State finishes as a two-loss team with no Big Ten title, it can still get into the playoff, but that September lineup will be scrutinized on Selection Day.
Last year: 13-1, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1200
CFP ranking history: 44 appearances, highest at No. 1 (six times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 57.5% | Win national title: 4.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is still a talented playoff team, albeit with a vastly different composition than last season’s 13-1 group. Oregon ranks 107th in returning offensive production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, but coach Dan Lanning lured in the program’s best freshman class. Nonconference games against rival Oregon State and Oklahoma State won’t be easy, but this is a manageable schedule that could land the Ducks back in the Big Ten title game.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Penn State. This is the only game that ESPN’s FPI gives Oregon less than a 50% chance to win. It’s a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten title game, but it’s in Happy Valley — at night. The head-to-head result will impact the committee’s ranking each week.
What the committee will like: Style points. If Oregon doesn’t win the Big Ten, it might be tough to earn a bye if the Ducks don’t have enough wins against top 25 opponents — unless they look like a dominant one- or two-loss team. It depends on what happens elsewhere. Last year, both Oregon and Penn State finished in the selection committee’s top four. This year, PSU has a chance to beat Ohio State during the regular season and Oregon does not. Instead, the Ducks will have to assert themselves against the likes of Indiana and Iowa.
What the committee won’t like: Upsets. It’s not that they can’t be overcome, but there’s not a lot of wiggle room in a schedule that might only include one or two CFP top 25 teams on Selection Day (Penn State, Indiana?). And this schedule has trap games all over it, including trips to Iowa and Washington.
Last year: 10-4, CFP 1st round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +900
CFP ranking history: 60 appearances, highest at No. 1 (eight times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 47.3% | Win national title: 2.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Clemson was overrated heading into the 2024 season. Now it’s underrated. The Tigers’ offense is loaded, starting with much-improved quarterback Cade Klubnik and a deep receiver corps. Klubnik also has a veteran offensive line to work with, and the defensive line should be one of the best in the country. Clemson has a chance to not only win the ACC, but return to the top of the sport.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 at South Carolina. A true road game against a ranked in-state SEC rival tops everything else on the schedule as far as difficulty. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a slim 51.9% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. Head-to-head wins are one of several tiebreakers the committee uses, and a season-opening win against LSU and a win at South Carolina to end the regular season would separate Clemson from other elite contenders — including in the SEC. If by chance one of those teams wins the SEC, there might not be a bigger trump card in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won’t like: No wins against ranked ACC teams. If Clemson doesn’t go 2-0 against the SEC, this could be an issue. Clemson doesn’t face Miami during the regular season, but SMU and Louisville could be top 25 opponents — and maybe Syracuse or Georgia Tech sneak in. Nobody knows what to expect from the Bill Belichick experiment at North Carolina. If Clemson is going to make a deep run into the playoff, though, or have a chance at a bye, it shouldn’t lose to Louisville again. The Tigers were fortunate to beat SMU in last year’s ACC title game, and they shouldn’t lose to the Mustangs at home this year. If Clemson returns to the ACC championship game and loses to Miami, it can still reach the playoff as an at-large team, but a weak ACC schedule would be glaring in the committee meeting room.
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 46.3% | Win national title: 2.7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Miami has more to prove before it is taken seriously as a playoff contender — like winning the ACC. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes more than a 50% chance to win each game, but the season opener at home against Notre Dame will be the first indicator of Miami’s playoff potential. Miami has continued to find ways to flop in games it should win — and that was with Cam Ward, the eventual first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. If the Canes are going to win a title of any kind this fall, the defense will have to do its part and help an offense now led by former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. The selection committee noticed the porous defense last season, and that was a critical component that kept them out of the playoff.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at SMU. Yes, the Notre Dame game will be huge as far as the national spotlight and playoff implications, but the Canes at least have home-field advantage. Miami doesn’t leave its home state until it goes to SMU. Traveling to Texas for a conference game to face the ACC runners-up right before the first CFP ranking is released is another glaring opportunity for the Canes to stumble.
What the committee will like: An unofficial state championship. If Miami isn’t going to leave its own state until November, it would help the Canes to own it. Miami’s only road trip before November is on Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes will have home-field advantage against three of their toughest opponents: Notre Dame, Florida and Louisville. A winning record against them will boost Miami’s chances in the committee meeting room. If the Canes can go 3-0 against their in-state opponents, including South Florida (Sept. 13) and Florida (Sept. 20), it would help ease the blow of a close home loss to Notre Dame — or Louisville. Two home losses before heading to SMU, though, would put Miami’s playoff hopes on the brink.
What the committee won’t like: Late road losses. Miami ends the season with back-to-back road trips to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh — two opponents capable of playing spoiler. If both teams are outside the committee’s top 25, a loss to one or both could come back to haunt the Canes if they don’t win the ACC and are jockeying for an at-large bid.
Last year: 14-2, CFP championship game
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 55 appearances, highest at No. 2 (four times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 45.6% | Win national title: 2.7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Notre Dame has one of the best running back tandems in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but the Irish will have a new starting quarterback for the sixth straight season. With two SEC opponents, a regular-season rivalry game against USC, a trip to Miami, and a home game against a Group of 5 CFP contender in Boise State, this is a schedule tailor-made to impress the committee — or knock the Irish out.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 at Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 56.2% chance to win — the only opponent it doesn’t predict Notre Dame to beat. The Canes will have the edge in quarterback experience with Beck, but both teams have questions in their secondary. If Notre Dame beats the eventual ACC champs, a head-to-head win in the season opener would increase in value on Selection Day.
What the committee will like: Two wins against conference champs. If Miami and Boise State both win their leagues, Notre Dame could have wins against the ACC and Mountain West Conference champs, respectively. In theory, the Irish could have even more if Navy wins the American Athletic Conference, but for now, Miami and Boise State are the most likely options. That’s a significant accomplishment for the Irish, who as an independent can’t win a conference title, and it gives the committee an added comparison point — not to mention a head-to-head tiebreaker over teams that could be in the running for a first-round bye.
What the committee won’t like: Another bad loss. Last year’s home loss to Northern Illinois stuck with some committee members through the entire season, and while the Irish were able to ultimately overcome it, there was no margin for error. In each of the past three seasons, Notre Dame has dropped a game it shouldn’t have (2022 Marshall, 2023 Louisville, 2024 Northern Illinois). With no conference championship to guarantee Notre Dame a spot in the field, its only path is an at-large bid, and losing to Purdue or Stanford isn’t the way to earn one.
Last year: 10-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 38.5% | Win national title: 2.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season’s playoff team (110th in the FBS). With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team’s entire offensive identity is a question mark. The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation’s 15th-most difficult schedule.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Alabama. Yes, the Sept. 13 game against Georgia is probably a tougher opponent, but going to Tuscaloosa to face Bama could mean a second loss before November. And that’s with Oklahoma and a trip to the Swamp still looming. ESPN’s FPI gives Alabama a 71.9% chance to win.
What the committee will like: Avoid going 0-2 against Bama and Georgia. This is the kind of schedule that helped Alabama finish as the committee’s top three-loss team last fall. The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them stay in contention even with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee can do the same, and earn two or three statement wins, it might be able to earn some forgiveness in the committee room for multiple slip-ups elsewhere.
What the committee won’t like: Unconvincing wins. While there are plenty of opportunities for Tennessee to impress the committee against elite competition, the Vols need to look the part of a playoff team against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State. Losses to highly ranked teams can be forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee offense doesn’t impress the committee on film against teams it should beat, the Vols could struggle to earn one of those at-large bids.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 34.3% | Win national title: 2.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is a lot of faith in a team that lost four of its final five games and needed a defensive overhaul. The Aggies can make the playoff as an at-large team, but having success against the nation’s ninth-toughest schedule will require significant improvement. That can be measured early with a Sept. 13 win against Notre Dame, a team that beat the Aggies at home last season.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 80.4% chance to win this Friday night rivalry game in Austin, but if the Aggies pull off the upset, they might be able to claim a win against the eventual SEC champs.
What the committee will like: Marquee road wins. The Aggies’ best chances to impress the committee are trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Midseason trips to Arkansas and Missouri will also be difficult, and are part of a three-game road swing that will help define the Aggies’ place in the committee’s rankings. The committee would reward Texas A&M for a winning record in those five road games. That would mean Texas A&M beat at least one of the big three — Notre Dame, LSU or Texas — along with Arkansas and Missouri. The better they fare against those opponents, the more margin for error the committee might give them at home against Florida and South Carolina.
What the committee won’t like: Another November to forget. The only team Texas A&M beat last November was New Mexico State. Slow golf clap. If the Aggies are going to stay relevant, they’ve got to finish strong, punctuating their résumé with a win against someone other than Samford. Back-to-back wins at Mizzou and South Carolina would provide some wiggle room heading into Texas.
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +5000
CFP ranking history: 34 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 30.7% | Win national title: 1.5%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for a two-loss SEC team that can earn an at-large bid. Coach Lane Kiffin has had at least 10 wins in three of the past four seasons and can do it again. Ole Miss will have a new starting quarterback for the first time in three seasons following the departure of Jaxson Dart, but rookie Austin Simmons has fared well in limited time, and the Rebels should again have a talented group of receivers. The defense made significant strides it can continue to build on but is looking to replace the bulk of production up front.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Georgia. Ole Miss won this game at home last year 28-10, but it was unable to turn that into a playoff berth, adding a third loss in their next game at Florida. This time, the game is at Georgia, and ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs an 80.6% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 win against Tulane. Don’t sleep on the importance of beating the AAC champs — especially if they wind up being a playoff team as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Tulane a 45.4% chance to win the AAC, a significant lead over Memphis at 14.9%. A head-to-head win against a playoff team would earn Ole Miss credit on Selection Day.
What the committee won’t like: An October slide. The Rebels end the month with back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss less than a 50% chance to beat both. If those are the only two games Ole Miss loses, it can still be a playoff team, but LSU and South Carolina are also on the schedule. If Ole Miss is going to finish as a two-loss team or better, there will be some pressure to be undefeated heading into late October.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1800
CFP ranking history: 47 appearances, highest at No. 1 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 30.3% | Win national title: 2.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is the deepest, most complete team Brian Kelly has had at LSU, and he has said repeatedly it’s good enough to contend for the national title. LSU might have the best quarterback in the country in veteran Garrett Nussmeier, but he will work with four new starters on the offensive line. While the defense has much to prove, Kelly said the group is good enough to win the big games.
Toughest test: Aug. 30 at Clemson. The Tigers also have to travel to Ole Miss and Alabama, but neither of those opponents have a starting quarterback as experienced as Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. This season opener will give the winner an early edge in the committee meeting room because of a strong nonconference win against a ranked opponent.
What the committee will like: A winning road record. LSU has the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, and some of that has to do with trips to Clemson, Ole Miss, Vandy, Bama and Oklahoma. If LSU is going to get into the CFP as an at-large bid, the committee would have a hard time excluding the Tigers if they went at least 3-2 in those games. They should beat Vandy and OU if they’re a true playoff team, but that record would also assure at least one more win against another contender.
What the committee won’t like: A loss to Clemson. If LSU doesn’t win, its nonconference résumé will likely be 3-1 with wins against Louisiana Tech, Southeast Louisiana and Western Kentucky. Clemson’s head-to-head win would also give it one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to help separate otherwise comparable teams. It’s not that LSU can’t overcome a tough season-opening road loss to what could be the ACC champs — but it will be under pressure to earn statement wins that won’t be any easier. ESPN’s FPI currently gives LSU less than a 50% chance to win its games against Clemson, Ole Miss and Alabama.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +3000
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.3% Win national title: 1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Michigan should be better than last year’s 8-5 finish, but by how much? There are more questions than answers heading into the season opener against New Mexico, starting at the top. Coach Sherrone Moore is expected to be suspended for two games as part of the self-imposed sanctions for the Connor Stalions advanced scouting scandal. It’s also still unclear if talented freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will lead the offense from Day 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State. Michigan couldn’t possibly beat the defending national champs a fifth straight time … could it?
What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Oklahoma. The Sooners are a borderline top 25 team, but as long as they have a respectable season above .500, the committee will reward Michigan for a road win against an SEC team through Selection Day. This is also one of the few opportunities Michigan has to impress the committee with a road win against a ranked opponent.
What the committee won’t like: Only one win against a ranked opponent. If the Sooners don’t crack the top 25, it’s possible that Ohio State will be the only ranked opponent Michigan faces this season. The Wolverines avoid both Penn State and Oregon. It’s also possible Michigan earns a win against a ranked Oklahoma team — but loses to Ohio State. While the committee does appreciate wins against teams above .500, other contenders with multiple wins against CFP top 25 opponents will likely have an edge in the rankings.
Last year: 12-2, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 9
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.2% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Boise State should have the best chances of any Group of 5 team to earn a spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State has the best chance of any team in the country to win its league (45.6%). The Broncos also rank No. 13 in returning production (67%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Quarterback Maddux Madsen will have a veteran offensive line in front of him, and the defense should remain one of the best in the Mountain West.
Toughest test: Oct. 4 at Notre Dame. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State less than a 50% chance to beat. It’s the first real opportunity to determine whether Boise State can still hang with the nation’s elite without Ashton Jeanty.
What the committee will like: A close game against the Irish. The committee pays attention to how teams lose, and if Boise State can take the Irish to the wire on their home turf, that’s the kind of performance that the group will remember on Selection Day. The same thing happened last season, when Oregon beat Boise State 37-34 at home. Even though it was a loss, the committee held the Broncos in high regard for pushing the eventual Big Ten champs to the limit.
What the committee won’t like: The No. 81 schedule strength. Boise State has what should be a fun, entertaining lineup, but it’s not going to do the Broncos any favors if they don’t win their conference — and that’s not a given. UNLV will again be right on their heels, this time under coach Dan Mullen. Boise State needs to hope that one or two of its opponents — maybe UNLV, App State or San Jose State — sneak into the committee’s top 25 to help boost its résumé. It would be an interesting debate if Boise State beat Notre Dame but didn’t win the MWC. That head-to-head tiebreaker would loom large in the room, but if both teams finish with one loss, Notre Dame’s No. 38 schedule could nullify it on Selection Day, preventing an at-large bid in spite of one of the best wins in the country.
Last year: 9-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 14 appearances, highest at No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 24.3% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Someone from the Group of 5 is going to make the CFP, and it’s most likely going to be the champion from either the Mountain West Conference or the American. Tulane has the best shot to win the latter, at least on paper this preseason, but Memphis will be its biggest challenger.
Toughest test: Sept. 20 at Ole Miss. The Green Wave will again have a chance to impress the committee with a tough nonconference game after coming up painfully short against Kansas State and Oklahoma last season. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 78.1% chance to win — the only opponent Tulane has less than a 50% chance of beating.
What the committee will like: Style points. Tulane and Boise State have similar schedules (Boise State is No. 81 and Tulane is No. 86). There’s no difference in that gap in the committee meeting room, which means that if both of them win their respective conferences — and lose to the toughest nonconference opponents — the deciding factor will simply be who has played consistently better all season. This doesn’t mean Tulane has to run up the score (the committee doesn’t incentivize margin of victory) — but it does need a strong showing against the likes of Army and Memphis.
What the committee won’t like: A home loss to Duke or Northwestern. If the committee is going to reward Tulane with a playoff spot, some people in that room will have a hard time voting the Green Wave ahead of the Mountain West champ with a home loss to Duke or Northwestern. Yes, Duke is coming off a respectable 9-4 season and is trending up with coach Manny Diaz, but if Boise State finishes with one loss (Notre Dame) and Tulane has two (Ole Miss and Duke), the committee’s choice seems obvious.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 7
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 22.2% | Win national title: .4%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The reality is the Big 12 is once again the most wide-open race in the FBS, but with quarterback Avery Johnson returning for his second season as the starter, expectations are high. According to ESPN’s FPI, K-State has a 19.9% chance to win the Big 12, a slight edge over defending champ Arizona State (13%). It’s not impossible for the Big 12 to get two playoff teams in, but the most likely scenario for the second team is as the league runner-up in a close loss — similar to what happened with SMU last year in the ACC.
Toughest test: Oct. 25 at Kansas. An in-state rival on the road during the heart of the season will have implications on the Big 12 standings and in turn the CFP race. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a 52.1% chance to win. The Wildcats escaped with a two-point win last year.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Iowa State in Dublin. The Cyclones are capable of winning the Big 12, and if K-State can knock them off in the season opener, it could help alleviate the blow of a loss in the Big 12 title game if they meet again. K-State would be able to claim a regular-season win against the conference champs. That’s a résumé booster that has helped teams before in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won’t like: No statement wins. If K-State doesn’t beat Iowa State, it might not have a win against a ranked team on its résumé. The Wildcats don’t face Arizona State or BYU during the regular season. Texas Tech could play its way into the top 25 and even make a run at the Big 12 title, and Kansas could as well, but there’s no headliner in the lineup to help separate K-State from another comparable contender.
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: 29 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.8% | Win national title: 1.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Auburn might be one of the most improved teams in the country, but it might not show in wins against the nation’s 14th-toughest schedule. Auburn could still be a four-loss team (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama), and while that would be its best finish under coach Hugh Freeze, it’s unlikely to make the cut for the 12-team field.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Georgia. There’s still a significant gap between these two programs, and it’s up to the Auburn offense to close it. The Tigers averaged 13.3 points in their seven losses last fall, and they’ll need stronger quarterback play to have a chance against Georgia, which won 31-13 last year.
What the committee will like: An Iron Bowl win. Beating rival Alabama in the regular-season finale could be a critical head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record and are on the bubble. It’s not unreasonable for both Alabama and Auburn to finish with three losses this fall — but it’s also possible that Alabama earns a spot in the SEC title game. Auburn will have home-field advantage against the Tide, and a win would leave a lasting impression, especially if Alabama has a chance to win the SEC.
What the committee won’t like: Bad losses. Auburn lost to Cal and Arkansas last season, two unranked teams that both finished with at least six losses. If Auburn is going to have any shot as an at-large CFP team, it has to avoid similar traps.
Last year: 11-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Four appearances, highest at No. 20
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.3% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is the right spot for UNLV, which can earn a spot in the playoff as the Mountain West Conference champion but is still looking up at Boise State until it proves otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Boise State. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI projects will beat UNLV, giving the Broncos a 59.8% chance to win. Last year, UNLV lost twice to Boise State — first during the regular season, and again in the MWC title game.
What the committee will like: Coach Dan Mullen. In a room filled with sitting athletic directors, former coaches and players, Mullen is a proven coaching commodity who will bring continued credibility to the sideline. He has lured in a roster filled with former blue-chippers and/or signees from power conferences. If he can translate that into some style points against weaker competition, it will help. UNLV will need to leave no doubt it’s the better team against the likes of Idaho State, Sam Houston, Wyoming and Nevada.
What the committee won’t like: The nation’s 113th strength of schedule. Any way you slice it, UNLV has to win the Mountain West to reach the CFP. A nonconference win against UCLA could help — maybe — but a Tulane win against Oklahoma would be better, and that would be a part of the conversation if the committee were comparing Tulane and UNLV as conference champs.
Last year: 11-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Nine appearances, highest at No. 8
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.1% | Win national title: .5%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for the Mustangs, who should be sitting behind Clemson and Miami when it comes to representing the ACC in the playoff this fall. SMU will face them both, though, during the regular season and have a chance to prove otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Clemson. SMU came within a 56-yard field goal of winning the ACC title in its first season as a member of the conference, but this will be different. It’s on Clemson’s turf, and the Tigers are loaded with elite talent and veteran experience. Clemson will already have been challenged in its season opener against LSU, while this will likely be the first ranked opponent SMU will face.
What the committee will like: At least split with Clemson and Miami. SMU didn’t face either of them during the regular season last year, which was a major criticism of the Mustangs’ inclusion into the CFP. SMU can quiet some of its naysayers and impress the committee by avoiding an 0-2 record against the ACC’s two favorites. If SMU can steal one of those wins and return to the ACC title game, it will have a chance at returning to the CFP as an at-large team as the ACC runner-up. SMU’s schedule is average — No. 43 — but it’s significantly behind the SEC, which owns 15 of the nation’s 16 most difficult schedules. That will matter if SMU is trying to edge out an SEC team with more losses for an at-large bid. Clemson and Miami are SMU’s two best opportunities to impress the committee against ranked CFP contenders.
What the committee won’t like: A rerun of the first half of the 2024 ACC championship game. SMU played poorly in the first half of the ACC title game against Clemson and was a half a game away from being excluded from the CFP last year. Had the Mustangs not redeemed themselves with a respectable second half and near win, they would have been out. SMU went on to lose convincingly to Penn State in the first round of the playoff. Although the selection committee members insist they start with a “blank slate” each year and each week, they’re also human — and the finish last season will be hard to forget. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who returns, threw three interceptions — including two returned for touchdowns — in the CFP loss to Penn State. If SMU doesn’t win the ACC, it’s going to need to consistently look like a playoff team to return.
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: 33 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21% | Win national title: .4%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. USC is a borderline at-large CFP team that’s going to have two tough road trips to rival Notre Dame and Oregon. If those are the Ducks’ only two losses, it’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the Trojans, but right now USC has much to prove after last year’s 7-6 finish.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Oregon. This earned a small edge over the game in South Bend simply because of the Big Ten implications. Both Oregon and USC should be looking up at Ohio State and Penn State in the league standings, but the Ducks will be looking to protect their shot at returning to the Big Ten title game, and Autzen Stadium will be unforgiving.
What the committee will like: A head-to-head win against the Irish. It’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to separate teams with comparable records, and if Notre Dame and USC are both competing for an at-large bid, this result will be critical.
What the committee won’t like: No statement road wins. A win against Purdue isn’t going to do USC any favors, but unless the Trojans show some significant improvement from 2024, it might be the only road win they get. USC also travels to Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon. Not one of those is a guarantee. Nebraska finished with its first winning season since 2016 last year. If Nebraska and Purdue are the Trojans’ only road wins, they need to hope the committee thinks highly of those opponents. The Huskers could be a surprise success in the Big Ten. These road trips could either help USC tremendously — or knock the Trojans out entirely.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: Seven appearances, highest at No. 14
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 20.3% | Win national title: 1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Gamecocks have the nation’s 13th-most difficult schedule, but this is probably also the most equipped the program has been to deal with it. Redshirt sophomore quarterback LaNorris Sellers is just scratching the surface of his talent, and the defensive front seven should remain one of the SEC’s best. South Carolina was on the brink of the CFP last season and is one statement win away from reaching it.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at LSU. The season opener against Virginia Tech is by no means a gimme, but if South Carolina is a playoff team, it should enter Baton Rouge undefeated. In addition to being one of the most difficult places to win in the country, this trip will give the committee a critical head-to-head result to consider, along with an edge in the SEC standings.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. It was surprising — and controversial — last year that the committee didn’t give South Carolina more credit for beating eventual ACC champion Clemson. Historically, that has played a role in its Selection Day deliberations. This year, the expectations are even higher for Clemson, which is talented enough to repeat as ACC champs and make a deeper CFP run beyond the first round. If the committee has Clemson ranked higher than its No. 16 finish in 2024, and Virginia Tech finishes above .500, it will give South Carolina a stronger boost on Selection Day.
What the committee won’t like: Another 0-3 record against LSU, Bama and Ole Miss. South Carolina lost to LSU and Alabama last year by a combined five points. It still wasn’t enough for an at-large bid, as the Gamecocks finished No. 15 on Selection Day. Winning those games would obviously change that. South Carolina was stuck behind both Bama and Ole Miss because the committee continued to honor the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 52 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 18.4% | Win national title: .8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Sooners have lots to prove in their second season in the SEC after a 6-7 finish that was punctuated with a bowl loss to Navy. They’re a fringe contender in desperate need of an offensive answer after finishing next to last in the SEC in scoring offense (24 points per game). With a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, and coach Brent Venables now calling the plays on defense, it’s time to see if the overhaul pays off in Year 4 for Venables.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. The rival Longhorns are the SEC favorites, and ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win this game. It will reveal the gap between the two storied programs and how far the Sooners have to go to return to playoff relevance.
What the committee will like: Look like an SEC team. Let’s start with the basics. Somehow, the only thing Oklahoma won in the SEC last year was the unofficial Iron Bowl, beating both Alabama and Auburn — but nobody else in the conference. While the committee members will say repeatedly they rank teams, not conferences, their past rankings indicate a high regard for the SEC (Alabama was the top three-loss team last year). If OU is going to join that club, though, the Sooners have to start looking the part of an SEC school.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 6 home loss to Michigan. It’s the only nonconference opportunity against a Power 4 opponent to impress the committee. Wins against Illinois State, Temple and Kent State won’t help the Sooners overcome any SEC losses. A win against Michigan could be a CFP top 25 win, and the head-to-head result could be a significant tiebreaker if they’re both competing for an at-large bid.
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 16.1% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Where’s the computer love for the defending Big 12 champs?! The Sun Devils return 79% of last year’s production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This is a team that should start the season on the bubble of the bracket — not the top 25. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson are potential first-round NFL draft picks, and 10 starters return from a defense that led the league in run defense (112.9 yards) and was No. 3 in scoring defense (22.6 points).
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Iowa State. Ames is a notoriously tricky place to win, and this game will be important for both Big 12 and CFP standings. Last year, ASU beat Iowa State 45-10 to win the Big 12 title and earn the league’s lone CFP spot.
What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. It’s going to be difficult (again) for the Big 12 runner-up to secure a second CFP spot unless it’s a lights-out, no-brainer pick, and it’s going to be difficult for ASU to prove that with the nation’s No. 73 schedule strength — especially when so many SEC teams’ schedules are ranked among the top 15. Arizona State will have some opponents sneak into the CFP top 25, and the committee respects wins against good teams — even if they’re not ranked — but it will also give the edge to contenders that have better statement wins against a more rigorous schedule.
What the committee won’t like: A loss to Mississippi State. Don’t let the SEC label fool you. ASU beat the 2-10 Bulldogs last year and should do it again if it’s a true playoff team. A loss would mean no Power 4 nonconference wins, as the rest of the schedule includes Northern Arizona and Texas State. There’s also upset potential at Baylor to end September, and that would be a devastating start for a program aiming for history.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 6 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 14.5% | Win national title: .7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Florida might have the best quarterback in the country in DJ Lagway, but it also has the most difficult schedule in the FBS. Again. The Gators are a long shot to win the SEC, and their chances of earning an at-large bid hinge on their ability to beat a lineup comprised mainly of top-25 teams.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Georgia. The Gators also have to face Texas in October, but the history between the Gators and Bulldogs runs deep. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 79.7% chance to win. Florida lost to both Georgia and Texas last year in back-to-back weeks. This year, the Gators have a bye week to prepare for Georgia.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 road win against Miami. The committee factors in the intangibles of rivalry games, and an in-state win against what should be a ranked Canes team would earn Florida some credit in the room. It could increase in value if Miami wins the ACC and clinches a spot in the playoff as one of the committee’s five highest-ranked conference champs. Even if Miami doesn’t win the ACC, the head-to-head tiebreaker could be a factor in the room if both teams are competing for an at-large spot. This is also the kind of nonconference win that could help separate Florida from the Big 12 runner-up if they’re competing for an at-large spot.
What the committee won’t like: An injury to Lagway. His health is critical to the team’s success, and the committee considers injuries to key players — which is why undefeated Florida State didn’t make the CFP in 2023 as the ACC champ. That’s not to say that Florida couldn’t make the playoff without Lagway — in 2014 Ohio State won the national title with its third-string quarterback. But the Gators would have to prove to the committee that they still look like a playoff team with Lagway sidelined. He has already dealt with a shoulder injury, a lower body injury and a hamstring injury during his career.
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Three appearances, highest at No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make the playoff: 13.4% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Kansas’ only role in the CFP last year was as a spoiler, knocking off three CFP-ranked opponents (Iowa State, BYU and Colorado) in consecutive weeks. It was too little, too late, though, and Kansas finished 5-7. Although the Jayhawks can build on their 3-1 finish and contend to win a wide-open Big 12, Kansas has to show more consistency before being taken seriously as an at-large possibility.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have poured booster money into their NIL collective, quietly building a roster capable of surprising the Big 12 favorites. It certainly won’t be easy for Kansas to go into Mizzou on Sept. 6 and win, but the mid-October trip to Lubbock will have bigger postseason implications.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Missouri. The Tigers are a fringe top-25 team, but their defense last year was one of the best in the FBS. If Mizzou can navigate offseason turnover on offense and have a respectable season — which it should — this could be a significant SEC road win for Kansas’ résumé.
What the committee won’t like: Any doubt. Kansas has little if any margin for error if it doesn’t win the Big 12. In addition to beating the Big 12’s best, the Jayhawks need to do what they couldn’t last year — avoid upsets and look like a playoff team against unranked competition.
Last year: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +30000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.6% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Because BYU has a strong chance to win the Big 12, it should be higher on this list — but how much higher depends on how the Cougars look without quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars still return their leading rusher, LJ Martin, and wide receiver Chase Roberts, who had over 850 yards and four touchdowns last year. BYU’s defense was also one of the best in the country last year at snagging turnovers. The returning talent will help ease the transition of whoever replaces Retzlaff as the starter.
Toughest test: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. The Cougars will have a bye week to prepare for this, but it’s still the second straight tough road trip following the Oct. 25 game at Iowa State. ESPN’s FPI projects BYU to lose both of those games, but if the Cougars can’t win in Ames, the trip to Texas Tech becomes even more consequential.
What the committee will like: One loss or better. BYU finished 10-2 last year, good enough for No. 17 on Selection Day. BYU probably has to win the Big 12 to earn a playoff spot, and it can’t lose to an opponent it’s supposed to beat (such as unranked Kansas last year). If BYU is going to have any shot at an at-large bid, its ideal scenario would be as a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, with the lone loss coming in the conference championship game. If BYU finishes with two losses, though, and no Big 12 title, it’s probably going to land where it did last year — in a regular bowl game.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. BYU starts September against Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina — none of which will help the Cougars’ playoff résumé. BYU has the No. 74 schedule in the country, and while the September slate might be ideal to break in a new starting quarterback, an early loss or ugly win to an unranked opponent will still be remembered in the committee meeting room.
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 13
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.5% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Until proved otherwise, everyone in the ACC is looking up at Clemson, Miami and SMU. Virginia Tech has a chance to surprise some people, but it fell below expectations last year and has even more questions heading into this season after 24 players entered the transfer portal and others moved on to the NFL.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 vs. South Carolina. Yes, the Hokies will have had all summer to prepare for their most difficult game of the regular season, but so will the Gamecocks, who are leading the race between the two programs to reach the CFP for the first time. ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina a 65.7% chance to win. There are also personal ties involved, as South Carolina coach Shane Beamer’s father, Frank, was the longtime head coach of the Hokies, where the younger Beamer was also a former assistant.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. A week after opening with the neutral site game against South Carolina, Virginia Tech hosts Vanderbilt, a much-improved SEC team that’s no longer a gimme. If the Hokies can win both of those games, it will compensate for the following two weeks against Old Dominion and Wofford. Those head-to-head results could also factor in as tiebreakers if any of the teams are in contention for an at-large bid and have similar records.
What the committee won’t like: A three-loss ACC team without a title. Considering three-loss Alabama was the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team last year (and still didn’t make the playoff at No. 11 on Selection Day), there’s even less margin for error in the ACC. If Virginia Tech loses to South Carolina, at Georgia Tech and against Miami, its playoff hopes are over without an ACC title. There are enough opportunities to impress the committee, but if Virginia Tech can’t manage a winning record against its ranked opponents, it’s going to be a hard sell in the room without winning the league.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 5
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.5% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Baylor is a team that can be in the conversation in November simply because it can win the Big 12. Coach Dave Aranda said this is his best team, and the Bears are poised to build off a strong finish to 2024. Still, Baylor will have to play its way into the committee’s top 25 before it’s taken seriously in the race.
Toughest test: Sept. 6 at SMU. This is a difficult in-state trip against the ACC runner-up, as ESPN’s FPI gives SMU a 65.3% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 start. If Baylor beats Auburn and SMU — two games ESPN’s FPI projects it will lose — the Bears’ playoff stock will rise immediately. With two nonconference wins against Power 4 opponents, Baylor will separate from other contenders who played a weaker lineup — including in the Big 12. There’s also the slim possibility that Auburn or SMU is competing with Baylor for an at-large spot, and that head-to-head win would tilt at least one major tiebreaker in the Bears’ favor.
What the committee won’t like: A November fade. Baylor’s schedule is frontloaded with opportunities to impress the committee, including league matchups against favorites Arizona State and K-State. That leaves a lull, though, in the backstretch, which might not include one ranked opponent over the span of the final six games. That’s also when the rankings are in full swing, and the committee is the most dialed in. Historically, it’s been easier for teams to overcome early losses than late ones. A loss to an unranked league opponent would damage the Bears’ résumé at a critical point in the committee’s deliberations.
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Eight appearances, highest at No. 10
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Nebraska should take another step forward this fall, but even a three-loss Huskers team is a long shot for an at-large bid. Nebraska lost six games a year ago and is still trailing Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon in the CFP race. It might also be looking up at Michigan, depending on the outcome of the Sept. 20 game.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Penn State. Nebraska avoids Ohio State and Oregon this year, leaving the road trip to Happy Valley easily the most difficult game. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State an 83.2% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A strong showing at home. Even if Nebraska loses at Penn State, the Huskers have plenty of chances at home to boost their playoff résumé, starting with the Michigan game. If Nebraska can win that one, it will have a strong chance to be undefeated heading into November against USC. That would make Nebraska relevant when it matters the most and give the Huskers some margin for error. Nebraska also ends the season at home on a Friday against Iowa. Home wins against Michigan, USC and Iowa would put the Huskers in the conversation.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. Wins against Cincinnati, Akron and Houston Christian aren’t going to help Nebraska’s playoff résumé, especially if the Huskers are looking for an at-large bid.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 25 appearances, highest at No. 3 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It’s hard to believe this program played for the national title as recently as 2022. The Horned Frogs are again a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team trying to build off last year’s 9-4 finish. The staff lured in the league’s top-rated recruiting class, but it’s going to take some time to translate. Until TCU plays its way into the CFP top 25, this is the right spot for the Frogs.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Kansas State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats a 63.3% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. The season opener at UNC will be a fascinating Labor Day coaching matchup between Bill Belichick and TCU’s Sonny Dykes. It’s impossible to tell how UNC’s season will unfold — a win in Chapel Hill might not amount to anything in the committee meeting room come Selection Day if the Tar Heels don’t put together a respectable season. If they do, though, and TCU also earns a home win against 2024 ACC runner-up SMU, it could help the committee determine whether the ACC or Big 12 might be more deserving of a second team.
What the committee won’t like: Road woes. If TCU is going to make a run at the Big 12 title, it’s going to have to beat the league’s best on the road. Trips to Arizona State, K-State and BYU will help determine the league leader, and TCU will need a winning record against them to stay in the mix.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: N/A
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Red Raiders are a CFP sleeper team, but not as far from a shot as the computers indicate. The program spent more than $10 million to sign 17 new players, including seven on the offensive and defensive lines. The defense has been under construction after allowing at least 35 points in each of its five losses last year, but with improvement and the return of quarterback Behren Morton, Texas Tech can contend for the Big 12 title — and in turn a spot in the CFP.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Arizona State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Sun Devils a 61.2% chance to win. The defending Big 12 champs return 79% of their total production from last season, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against Arizona State and Kansas State. They’re both likely to be CFP top 25 teams, and beating them on the road would position Texas Tech at or near the top of the Big 12 standings.
What the committee won’t like: A September stumble. If Texas Tech is going to be taken seriously as a CFP contender, it should go undefeated in September. The Sept. 20 trip to Utah will be the toughest game of the month, but the Red Raiders can’t afford a Week 3 upset to Oregon State, either. The committee members won’t be wowed by home wins against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State or Oregon State — but they won’t forget losses to any of them. While a road loss to Utah isn’t horrible, it would put Texas Tech in a hole before the Red Raiders travel to ASU and K-State later in the season.
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Seth Wickersham
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Seth Wickersham
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior Writer for ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine
- Joined ESPN The Magazine after graduating from the University of Missouri.
- Although he primarily covers the NFL, his assignments also have taken him to the Athens Olympics, the World Series, the NCAA tournament and the NHL and NBA playoffs.
Stanford is set to hire former Nike CEO John Donahoe as the school’s new athletic director, sources told ESPN on Thursday.
Donahoe, 65, will arrive in the collegiate athletic director space with a vast swath of business experience, as Stanford officials viewed him as a “unicorn candidate” because of both his business ties and history at the school. Stanford coveted a nontraditional candidate for the role, and Donahoe’s hire delivers a seasoned CEO with stints at Nike, Bain & Company and eBay. He also served as the board chair of PayPal.
Donahoe also brings strong Stanford ties, as he’s a 1986 MBA graduate. He has also had two stints on the Stanford business school’s advisory board, including currently serving in that role.
Donahoe replaces Bernard Muir, who announced in February he was stepping down from the school after serving in that role since 2012. Alden Mitchell has been working as the school’s interim athletic director.
The hire is a head-turning one for Stanford, bringing in someone with Donahoe’s high-level business experience. And it comes at a time when the athletic department has struggled in its highest profile sports, as football is amid four consecutive 3-9 seasons and the men’s basketball team hasn’t reached the NCAA tournament since 2014.
In hiring Donahoe, they are aiming for someone who can find an innovative way to support general manager Andrew Luck and the Stanford football program while also figuring out a sustainable model for the future of Stanford’s Olympic sports.
Stanford’s Olympic sports remain the best in the country, as Stanford athletes or former athletes accounted for 39 medals in the 2024 Paris Olympics. If Stanford were a country, they would have tied with Canada for the 11th most medals. (Stanford has also won 26 of the possible 31 director’s cups for overall athletic success in college, including a 25-year streak from 1995 to 2019.)
Stanford officials approached Donahoe in recent weeks about the position, with both President Jonathan Levin and former women’s basketball coach Tara VanDerveer among the chief recruiters. Donahoe has a long-standing relationship with both, as he maintained strong ties to the school throughout his career.
Per ESPN sources, Luck will report to Donahoe in this role. Luck spent time with him in the interview process and is excited to work with him, per sources. (That’s a change from the prior structure, as upon Luck’s hiring he had been slated to report to Levin.)
Stanford is set to begin a football season in which it is picked last in the 17-team ACC. Former NFL coach Frank Reich is the interim coach, and both sides have made clear this is a definitive interim situation and he won’t return after the 2025 season.
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