Will Oregon’s offense tailor-made for Dillon Gabriel pay off?
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Paolo Uggetti, ESPN
EUGENE, Ore. — It’s a midsummer day in July, and Oregon‘s present and future at the quarterback position are fittingly passing each other inside the brightly lit hallways of the Marcus Mariota Performance Center.
Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore dap each other up and go their separate ways. Gabriel, the 23-year-old from Hawai’i who has been in college since 2019 and is about to play for his third program. Moore, the 19-year-old who was born in Cleveland, played high school football in Detroit and is suiting up for his second season on his second team.
Despite being at different stages of their career, Gabriel and Moore found common ground in what appealed to them about Oregon — a place where they had seen a quarterback like Bo Nix become the best version of himself while winning.
Gabriel’s journey is a peculiar one. He went from Oahu to UCF before making his way to Oklahoma and eventually, back toward the Pacific. It made him one of the longer tenured players in the sport and one of the most experienced. Over the course of six seasons, Gabriel has thrown 1,831 passes for over 16,000 yards. For reference, Oklahoma State‘s Alan Bowman — who has been in college since 2018 — has thrown for 6,000 fewer yards.
“It’s hard to find that type of experience,” offensive coordinator Will Stein said. “Everywhere he goes, he wins. He won in high school, he has won in college. He’s played in the biggest settings in college football.”
For Stein and head coach Dan Lanning, the option to bring in Gabriel was a no-brainer. His Hawaiian roots and experience watching former Oregon great and Hawai’i native Marcus Mariota was a bonus. For Gabriel, however, his first decision following his most productive season yet while at Oklahoma was whether or not to go to the NFL. As Gabriel explained it, once he decided to forego the draft, he wanted to make a different move. Oklahoma had been great for him, but with his offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby leaving to take a head-coaching job at Mississippi State and the Sooners being a younger team, he decided to find a new home.
“It wasn’t the best timing,” Gabriel said of Oklahoma. “But when it came to Oregon, I’ve never been so decisive and clear of what I wanted. When I was on the phone with them, I was already envisioning myself there.”
The Ducks are 5-0 this season as Gabriel is well on his way to another season of over 3,000 passing yards while being the most efficient quarterback in the country. However, Oregon has also shown it’s not quite operating at the level that it did with Nix last season. Though they are back at No. 3 in the AP poll, the Ducks dropped after struggling to beat Idaho and Boise State early in their first two games. Key statistics like red zone conversion and explosive plays from scrimmage are down from 2023, too.
“We can be better,” Lanning said after the Ducks’ win over Oregon State. After taking down UCLA, he reiterated the notion. “I see all the things we can get better at,” he said when asked about the win.
With No. 2 Ohio State coming to Eugene this week for what could be the biggest matchup in the new-look Big Ten this season, Gabriel is about to lead Oregon on a stretch of games that includes at least three ranked teams and another rival in Washington as it hopes to not just reach the College Football Playoff for the first time under Lanning, but also put itself in a position to win it all. As Lanning has said before, those are the expectations in Eugene. It’s part of why Gabriel transferred teams for one last ride.
“I had clear goals for myself and that’s winning a national championship and putting myself in the best spot to do so,” Gabriel said. “You get all you want here — the offensive fit, the surrounding cast and the team and a coach who believes and that chance to win the national championship.”
THE THREAD THAT is attempting to connect Nix to Gabriel and eventually to Moore is Will Stein.
Former offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham may have been part of what brought Nix to Eugene, but after he left for the Arizona State head-coaching gig, Stein was able to seamlessly pick up where he left off and help Nix put together a Heisman-worthy season in 2023.
You don’t have to spend too much time talking to Stein to realize that he’s a football-obsessed mind. Stein is pragmatic about how to run an offense and though that doesn’t mean he isn’t flexible with his approach, it does bring about a palpable confidence to what he does. As he put it, Gabriel has bought in since Day 1, because he knows this is an opportunity to run a “pro-style offense that will translate to the next level.”
“And we’ll run an offense that has been successful at every stop I’ve been at,” Stein said.
As soon as Oregon received a commitment from Gabriel, the former co-offensive coordinator at UTSA went back and watched all of Gabriel’s previous college games to see what schemes he thrived in, which ones he didn’t and how they could fit into the offense that Stein had already established in Eugene.
“It’s hard to put a label on what we do because we kind of do a little bit of everything. … We like to look complex, but we’re really pretty simple,” Stein said, describing his offense as one that can be nimble to different personnel groupings, formations and different quarterbacks. “Going back to the Chip [Kelly] days, which is high octane, high tempo, limited formation spread. We’re really not that, like we have that ability, we do a lot of that, but when you get down to the core of what we are, we’re as pro style as anybody else.”
The one thing that is certain inside Stein’s system is this: His offense gives the quarterback plenty of freedom, but also the responsibility of getting the offense “in good plays and out of bad plays.” It’s why filling that void left behind by Nix with a player like Gabriel and planning for the future with Moore was so crucial.
“He knew how to tailor the offense around Bo,” Moore, who was initially committed to Oregon before flipping to UCLA, said of Stein. “He adjusted it. He tailored it to him. Dillon, he comes in and says he likes this, he’s going to tailor it around him. Me coming in too, he’s going to tailor the offense around you.”
Nix, Stein said, was a phenomenal processor of information, giving him the ability to handle all the pre-snap motions, scheme changes and protections. To maintain that level of competence on that side of the ball, they needed someone who could jump in and process things quickly, someone who had already seen a lot before.
“It’s like talking to that graduate-level student, you know, compared to freshman,” Stein said of a player with as much experience as Gabriel. “He’s seen a lot of defenses over his career. He has played in big moments, but there’s still a process to it. His command of the offense has to be of the utmost importance for us to function at a high level.”
Stein said that some of the initial learning may have been outside of Gabriel’s comfort zone. But his willingness to learn — through repetition and trial and error — meant that as the first game of the season approached, they had now installed the offense three separate times, and both of them felt as comfortable as they could have on such a fast timeline.
“I’ve been in the McDonald’s menu where you may have the number one, but there’s more to memorize,” Gabriel said of the different offensive approaches he’s encountered. “But then I’ve also been in the Bible verse era, they tell every single person what to do, but you’re able to be much more clear on communicating every single thing. So it’s just a mixture. Whatever gets the job done.”
Whether it’s a playcalling style that’s more intricate or one that’s simpler, Gabriel has experienced it all. In Eugene, Gabriel said, learning the offense has been complex but not unfamiliar. If anything, it’s similar concepts with different terms, and he knows that the elaborate nature of the offense is also what allows him to have more control over it.
So far, the results have been both undeniable — five wins, an average of 458 yards per game and 35 points per game — but not quite an encore of last season, where Nix and Co. averaged 531 yards and 44 points per game while boasting the eighth best red zone touchdown conversion rate in the country. This year, the Ducks are 45th in that stat.
Still, it’s hard to nitpick Gabriel’s production (1,449 yards, 11 touchdowns). Like Nix last season, Oregon’s offense has produced the most efficient quarterback in the country. Gabriel’s 77.8 completion rate tops all quarterbacks so far this season (Nix finished at 77.4 last year), even those who have nearly half the passing attempts he does.
“Dylan’s been extremely efficient,” Lanning said after Oregon’s win over UCLA. “It’s all him. He’s the one making every play. None of these coaches get to go make any of those plays.”
For all the talk about Stein’s scheme or Gabriel’s experience, even Moore’s potential, Lanning’s rhetoric during most postgames is a reminder that none of it matters without execution. Without being able to conjure up another year of eligibility for Nix, getting a quarterback who has executed at a high level for five full seasons now like Gabriel was the next best thing. And now, with Moore in the system as a sophomore and former No. 2 overall recruit, Oregon is hoping it can have a longer runway to develop a quarterback in their image.
“I think after his freshman year [Moore] realized that maybe the decision he made wasn’t what he wanted to do originally,” Stein said. “We wanted to make his original dreams to play here come true. And when you can add and improve your team at a spot that you feel is like a positional need in the future, you do it. It’s just like free agency in the NFL. We have the opportunity here to do that.”
TEZ JOHNSON IS smiling.
Oregon has just handled UCLA 34-13 at the Rose Bowl and Gabriel is sitting to his left after throwing for three touchdowns — two of them caught by Johnson. Gabriel’s 10 incompletions in the game are the most he has had all season to this point. The week before against Oregon State, Gabriel started the game 15-for-15.
When Johnson, who witnessed Nix’s development into one of the best quarterbacks in the sport while in Eugene firsthand, is asked what he has seen from Gabriel so far this season to give him confidence in the Ducks’ offense going forward, he does not hesitate.
“I see confidence, poise, trusting his teammates,” Johnson said. “And when you got a quarterback like that, it’s always comfortable. … As a receiver you love that because you don’t have to really think of too much. His job is already hard as it is, so we try to make it easy for him.”
Though the scores and the win column tell one story, it hasn’t been all easy for Gabriel and Oregon. The shuffling — by design — of the offensive line early on in the year didn’t seem to put the Ducks in the best position to succeed as Gabriel was sacked seven times in the first two games.
But against Oregon State, Lanning put Iapani Laloulu at center and shuffled the rest of the line around him, sticking with the unit throughout the victory. Since the shift, Gabriel has not been sacked once in the past three games.
It took Nix a full season to reach his full potential inside Oregon’s offense. Much like Gabriel, the best version of the combination between the two parties didn’t happen right away. But if Gabriel and Oregon want to turn this season into something more than just Gabriel’s last and another close call for Lanning, any learning curve must be erased.
There has been marked improvement from Oregon’s offense from its first game to now, but with the undefeated Buckeyes and the stingiest defense in the nation looming, there will be no margin for error.
Oregon has trusted Gabriel with ushering the unit in the footsteps of one of the more productive quarterbacks the school has seen. The first five games were about getting acquainted with what the offense looks like on the field and setting the tone. The next five will determine what kind of season Oregon will have. What may seem like pressure to some is easy for Gabriel to embrace, in this environment more so than most.
“They have complete confidence in me out there and it’s empowering,” Gabriel said. “If s—‘s f—ed up, you want to make it right, you know? The freedom they give me allows us to make it right.”
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Bill Connelly
It’s good to have a purpose in life. Conference USA’s purpose is to serve as the official FBS welcome mat.
With the additions of Delaware and Missouri State, there are now 136 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. CUSA has at one point or another housed nearly a quarter of them. Of the 10 programs to move up from FCS since 2014, eight joined CUSA upon their arrival. Conference realignment hasn’t been incredibly kind to this league of late, with three schools leaving for the AAC in 2014, three going to the Sun Belt in 2022 and six heading for the AAC in 2023. (UTEP departs for the Mountain West next year.) But serving as the Ellis Island of FBS assures the conference of both an identity and, well, quantity.
Two of these relative FBS newcomers have won the league the past two years — Liberty (first FBS year: 2018) took the title and a Fiesta Bowl bid two years ago, and in 2024 Jacksonville State did the deed in just its second year aboard. Sam Houston, another second-year program, went an impressive 10-3.
On paper, Liberty appears pretty likely to take the mantle back in 2025, but no one saw JSU coming a year ago. Might we have another surprise in store? Let’s preview Conference USA!
Through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.
2024 recap
On paper, Liberty graded out slightly ahead of the pack in SP+ last year. The Flames still had quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley (plus three all-conference offensive linemen) and scored at least 31 points seven times. But random duds — a 27-24 loss to Kennesaw State and its No. 134 defense, a 20-18 loss to Sam Houston — rendered the Flames also-rans in the CUSA race, and Rich Rodriguez’s Jacksonville State took full advantage. The Gamecocks lost to Western Kentucky in the last week of the regular season but administered a 52-12 thumping of the Hilltoppers a week later to take the title.
Sam Houston, meanwhile, also took a lovely step forward, albeit one tinged with good fortune. Both JSU and SHSU then lost their head coaches and prepared to start all over again.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
(* For consistency’s sake, I attempted to record only FBS starts in the “returning/incoming starts” columns, so FBS newcomers Delaware and Missouri State return none of those. But their returning production numbers show that both return solid bases of experience.)
This conference runs the gamut in the continuity department. Kennesaw State replaced coach Brian Bohannon with Jerry Mack after its first FBS season, and Mack managed to keep a solid amount of the Owls’ two-deep intact while importing a healthy amount of experience from the transfer portal. Meanwhile, of 136 FBS teams, Jacksonville State returns the second-lowest amount of production, and WKU and Sam Houston failed to hit the 40% mark in this regard. These were the top three teams in last year’s standings. That gives you a pretty good idea why Liberty seems poised to rebound.
2025 projections
Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State and Sam Houston remain in CUSA’s projected top four, but the projected win totals are pretty telling. From No. 107 Sam Houston to No. 123 UTEP, six teams are projected to win between 4.8 and 5.8 games; whoever wins their close games within this batch will enjoy a pretty nice season.
Liberty and WKU are CUSA’s most proven entities at the moment — Liberty has won at least eight games for six straight seasons (average SP+ ranking in this span: 61.4), while WKU has reached four CUSA championship games, winning two, since joining the league in 2014. Between them, the Flames and Hilltoppers start out with a nearly 50% chance of winning the conference. But every other eligible team has at least a 4% chance, and last year’s champ, Jax State, started out at just 7%. We’re not too far away from a chaotic race.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Aug. 23: Sam Houston at Western Kentucky. Week 0’s headline game is Kansas State vs. Iowa State in Dublin; the winner of that one will immediately become one of the Big 12’s favorites. But back in the States, this game will have a similar impact. The winner will move to the top of the CUSA challengers list.
Sept. 6: Liberty at Jacksonville State. CUSA isn’t messing around! We’ll get another big game in Week 2, with the 2024 champs hosting the 2023 champs. JSU is admittedly a mystery this year, but an early home win would help to prevent a Liberty coronation run.
Oct. 21: Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech/Nov. 22: Liberty at Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech has struggled to generate momentum under Sonny Cumbie, winning just 11 games in three seasons. But the Bulldogs have an interesting opportunity this year thanks to a schedule featuring home games against contenders WKU, SHSU and Liberty. Cumbie handed his offense to freshmen and sophomores last year, and if development produces a breakthrough — and decent home crowds: Tech averaged 20,439 in home attendance in 2019 but hasn’t topped 16,000 since — a Bulldog rise isn’t out of the question.
Nov. 29: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State. Last year, we headed into the final week of the regular season with two huge, pivotal games — JSU at WKU and Liberty at SHSU — deciding who would play in the CUSA championship. If things are similarly undecided in 2025, this game could end up rather pivotal.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Jamey Chadwell (third year, 21-5 overall)
2025 projection: 69th in SP+ (62nd offense, 69th defense), 9.3 average wins, 6.4 conference wins
Last year, coming off a triumphant 13-1 season, Jamey Chadwell’s Flames returned their star quarterback (Kaidon Salter), their 1,400-yard rusher (Quinton Cooley) and six defensive starters. They were projected 41st in SP+. They finished 30 spots lower.
Without star receiver (and LSU transfer) CJ Daniels, the big plays disappeared — Salter went from averaging 16.3 yards per completion to 12.8 — and while Cooley and the run game were still excellent, passing downs were suddenly a problem. The defense played about the same, but the offense fell from 3.1 points per drive (sixth nationally) to 2.4 (49th), and Liberty averaged just 17.5 points per game in four losses.
Chadwell’s offensive track record remains strong, and in his past five seasons at Coastal Carolina and Liberty, he’s a combined 50-12. But last year’s No. 60 offensive SP+ ranking was the worst for a Chadwell team since 2019; he and offensive coordinator Willy Korn have questions to answer in that regard.
Ethan Vasko, who originally signed with Chadwell at Coastal Carolina, transfers in to likely start at quarterback; he’ll set up behind a line that returns three starters (including center Aaron Fenimore, who earned all-conference honors as a freshman) and adds Florida State guard transfer Christian Williams. The receiving corps adds Colorado State possession man Jamari Person and returns a pair of potential big-play guys in Elijah Canion and Reese Smith. Though the RB corps is terribly unproven after losing Cooley and backup Billy Lucas, (A) Chadwell offenses always move the ball on the ground, and (B) returnees Vaughn Blue and Julian Gray averaged 6.0 yards per carry between them in a limited sample, and incoming freshman Jaylon Coleman is a four-star prospect.
The defense needed to pick up slack last year with the offense less consistent, and it didn’t really do so. The Flames defended the run pretty well, but their blitzes didn’t get home, and they got burned for quite a few big pass plays. It’s hard to say the pass rush will improve without sacks leader TJ Bush Jr., who transferred to Cal this spring, but the addition of edge transfers Aaron Hester (Florida State) and Derrell Farrar (Appalachian State) could help, and the LU defense overall could benefit significantly from pure experience. Sophomores such as end Brenton Williams, linebacker Ethan Crisp and corner Jamal Miles could enjoy star turns, but Liberty also could start a full 11-man lineup of juniors and seniors, including proven entities such as end (and ace run-stopper) CJ Bazile Jr. and safety A’Khori Jones.
In terms of both experience and upside, this is the most proven roster in Conference USA. But we said the same thing last year. The Flames bear a bit more burden of proof this time around.
Head coach: Tyson Helton (seventh year, 48-32 overall)
2025 projection: 85th in SP+ (102nd offense, 68th defense), 7.7 average wins, 5.6 conference wins
Tyson Helton and WKU have won eight or nine games for four straight seasons with a stellar average SP+ ranking of 66.5. After making one of the best coordinator hires of the 2020s — Zach Kittley came to town in 2021, and WKU surged from 120th to seventh in offensive SP+ — Helton has seen his offense get a little shakier each year, but his defense has slowly picked up the slack. Despite quite a few coordinator changes and an average of 18 transfers per year in and 21 transfers out over the past four seasons, WKU somehow has managed to put out the same results.
If the results don’t change this year, they never will. Helton is dealing with his most upheaval yet. He’ll be breaking in his fourth offensive coordinator in five years (Rick Bowie) and his first new defensive coordinator in four years (co-coordinators, actually: Da’Von Brown and Davis Merritt). Meanwhile, according to the numbers at 247 Sports, 37 players have transferred out while 43 have transferred in. That’s half a roster! Only two starters remain from last year’s lineup — two! — but Helton brought in four starters from other FBS defenses, and the offense will boast prolific and explosive players in quarterback Maverick McIvor (3,828 yards at Abilene Christian last year) and receivers Jairus Mack (22.0 yards per catch at Charlotte), Isaiah Myers (18.2 YPC at Charlotte) and Matthew Henry (18.9 YPC at Western Illinois).
With Bowie, Helton is basically calling back to 2021, when Kittley came from Houston Christian and brought a number of HCU stars with him, including quarterback Bailey Zappe, who proceeded to throw for 5,967 yards and 62 TDs. Bowie was Abilene Christian’s (and McIvor’s) offensive coordinator last year as the Wildcats nearly beat Texas Tech — McIvor threw for 506 yards and three TDs in a 52-51 loss — and reached the FCS playoffs for the first time. Relying almost entirely on newcomers is a pretty scary prospect, but the potential is obvious. In addition to the receivers above, McIvor will also have Kody Epps (BYU), Kelby Williams (Old Dominion) and high-potential holdovers K.D. Hutchinson and Cameron Flowers running routes. Tackle Marshall Jackson, the lone returning starter, is good, and Helton signed eight transfers and five juco players to flesh out the two-deep up front. The RB corps is unproven, but I don’t get the impression WKU will run much.
The defense is equally new and potentially less proven. Of the batch of 16 incoming transfers (plus three juco players), the most intriguing newcomers are probably rush end Dominic Oliver (San Diego State), 315-pound defensive tackle Rylen Su’a-Filo (Southern Utah) and sophomore corner Braxton Myers (Southern Miss), but the overall statistical résumé of the new defenders isn’t quite as strong.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Charles Kelly (first year)
2025 projection: 104th in SP+ (105th offense, 99th defense), 6.6 average wins, 4.5 conference wins
Continuity hires aren’t guaranteed to work. When Michigan replaced Jim Harbaugh with former lieutenant Sherrone Moore in 2024, it didn’t stop the Wolverines’ win total from getting cut in half. And just because Ohio promoted offensive coordinator Brian Smith after winning 31 games in three years and losing head coach Tim Albin, that doesn’t mean the Bobcats won’t fall off course. Every new hire is an opportunity to charge forward or fall apart, regardless of how well the new guy knows the last guy.
I’m still struggling a bit with the change at Jacksonville State, however. With an ever-delightful, run-centric offense, Rich Rodriguez led the Gamecocks to immediate FBS success, going 18-9 over JSU’s first two seasons before returning to West Virginia. Offensive coordinator Rod Smith served as JSU’s interim head coach against Ohio in the Cure Bowl, but instead of handing the reins to Smith or a similarly offense-minded coach, JSU replaced Rodriguez with defensive veteran Charles Kelly.
The 57-year-old Kelly is an Alabama guy who served, delightfully, as both JSU offensive coordinator (1996) and defensive coordinator (1997-98) early in his career. He has coached for Jimbo Fisher, Nick Saban, Deion Sanders and Hugh Freeze in the last decade alone. And after hiring balance-minded offensive coordinator Clint Trickett and having to replace basically 18 starters, he’s going to lead a completely different JSU team onto the field this fall, for better or (more likely, in my estimation) worse.
Kelly has brought some well-traveled former blue-chippers with him: quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (Rutgers/Kentucky), running back Cam Cook (TCU), defensive tackle Khurtiss Perry (Alabama/Virginia Tech), nickel back Tre’Quon Fegans (Alabama/USC/UCF). He didn’t do a ton of portal work in the trenches — which made sense on defense (four of last year’s top six linemen return) but less so on offense (six of last year’s top seven are gone) — but he brought in quite a few wideouts and DBs.
JSU’s history of success stretches far beyond Rich Rod: The Gamecocks won a Division II title in the 1990s and reached the FCS title game in the 2010s. With proper program support, Kelly might be able to win big too. But in the short term, at least, I’m not nearly as optimistic as SP+.
Head coach: Phil Longo (first year)
2025 projection: 107th in SP+ (118th offense, 91st defense), 5.2 average wins, 4.2 conference wins
I recently looked at good and bad luck for 2024, from three different angles: turnovers, close games and injuries/lineup consistency. One team was among the 15 most fortunate in all three categories: KC Keeler’s Sam Houston. The Bearkats did plenty right in charging from 3-9 to 10-3 — the offense limited mistakes and negative plays, and the defense defended the pass beautifully — but happy turnover and injury luck, combined with a 6-0 record in one-score games, is almost impossible to replicate.
With Keeler off to Temple, new head coach Phil Longo takes over a program that is a) likely to see fewer happy breaks, b) replacing every single defensive starter and c) playing its home games in Houston, 70 miles away from Huntsville, while Bowers Stadium undergoes renovations. This seems … suboptimal. After a mostly woebegone stint as Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator, Longo might generate quick offensive success at SHSU — quarterback Hunter Watson is back, as are three starting linemen and Watson’s two most explosive receivers (Qua’Vez Humphreys and Michael Phoenix II), and Longo brought two Wisconsin QB signings with him just in case. Plus, in transfers Shane Porter (North Texas) and Elijah Green (Indiana), he welcomes two RBs who averaged 6.7 yards per carry between them. Throw in Long Island receiver transfer Aviyon Smith-Mack (18.0 yards per catch), and you can talk yourself into the offense.
The defense, however, is completely starting over. Even including three transfers, only four Bearkat defenders saw more than 110 FBS snaps last season. I’m intrigued by smaller-school transfers linebacker JaMair Diaz (21 TFLs and 12 sacks at Glenville State) and defensive end Keelan Cox (six sacks at Texas Southern), but it’s hard to believe new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay will have the depth he needs, particularly up front.
Even with a poor Wisconsin run, the Longo hire made some sense — he has plenty of offensive success on his résumé, and you can almost certainly find what you need to run a high-tempo, free-flowing offense in Texas. But even though the projections are at least semi-optimistic, this feels like a massive Year Zero situation for Longo and SHSU.
Head coach: Sonny Cumbie (fourth year, 11-26 overall)
2025 projection: 109th in SP+ (126th offense, 80th defense), 6.0 average wins, 4.1 conference wins
Between the lovely home schedule and offensive experience mentioned above and my aforementioned skepticism of both Jax State and SHSU, I think Louisiana Tech has an opportunity to do something interesting this season. It’s been a little while. Three years under Sonny Cumbie haven’t borne fruit, and Tech hasn’t won more than five games in a season since 2019.
Development will be key. In 2024, Tech was led in passing by a redshirt freshman (Evan Bullock) and in rushing by a sophomore JUCO transfer (Omiri Wiggins); the two most explosive pass catchers were sophomores (Jay Wilkerson and tight end Eli Finley), and the most snaps on the offensive line went to another redshirt freshman (tackle Hayden Christman). There were veterans too — senior slot man Tru Edwards caught 85 passes, senior guard Bert Hale earned honorable mention all-CUSA — but the Bulldogs’ offense was awfully unseasoned.
That Bullock completed 66% of his passes with a 14-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio was encouraging, even if there were a lot of nibbling, short passes involved. But the return of these experienced players, plus the addition of one of the best RBs in NAIA (Keiser’s 6-foot-2, 225-pound Andrew Burnette), has me intrigued. So does the return of Tony Franklin. An early Air Raid adopter, the 67-year-old is back for his second stint as Tech’s OC, and he returns to full-sized football after a brief but dominant stint as Army’s sprint football OC. There’s a lot to replace on the offensive line, but it sure seems like Franklin might have some fun with Bullock and a fast skill corps.
Of course, I’d feel even better about Tech if Cumbie had held onto Jeremiah Johnson. The former Northern Iowa defensive coordinator worked wonders in improving the Bulldogs from 122nd to 67th in defensive SP+ last season, but he was lured away by Coastal Carolina. Cumbie replaced him with former Jax State DC Luke Olson, and Olson will have his work cut out for him: Of the 11 players who saw at least 200 snaps in the front six last season, eight are gone, including all six linemen. The secondary, led by safety Jacob Fields, should be sound, but a really strong run defense needs to start over.
Head coach: Derek Mason (second year, 3-9 overall)
2025 projection: 125th in SP+ (130th offense, 109th defense), 5.3 average wins, 3.5 conference wins
In a word, Derek Mason’s first year succeeding Rick Stockstill at MTSU was horrendous. The Blue Raiders ranked 131st in SP+ (131st on offense, 122nd on defense) and only finished 3-9 because they won all three of their games that were decided by single digits. Their nine losses came by an average score of 41-17. The passing game was decent, the defense was sporadically able to bend without breaking, and lots of freshmen got experience, especially in the trenches. But Mason, the former Vanderbilt head coach, wasn’t able to come up with many answers, even if MTSU did operate pretty well in the rare tight game. (Vandy was decent in those situations under Mason, too.) Things felt mostly hopeless.
I’m admittedly not making this sound like a “couple of breaks away” team, am I? Well, that probably says something about how many particularly iffy teams CUSA seems to have this season. But it also says something about what MTSU returns. In a conference full of poor returning production numbers, the Blue Raiders rank a solid 46th nationally, and fourth in CUSA, behind only a team with a new head coach (Kennesaw State) and the two FBS newcomers. Mason brought back both coordinators — Bodie Reeder on offense, Brian Stewart on defense — and the Blue Raiders return a solid and experienced quarterback (Nicholas Vattiato), a pair of disruptive defensive tackles (Shakai Woods and Damonte Smith, who combined for 11.5 TFLs and 20 run stops), and a potential all-conference safety in John Howse IV. Mason also found some potential portal gems in running back Rickey Hunt Jr. (Ohio), receiver Amorion Walker (Michigan) and 6-foot-7 tackle Jacob Otts (Rhode Island).
Defensively, I honestly expected a few more transfers. Mason brought in three transfers and two JUCOs in the secondary but mostly let it ride with the front six. Maybe that will pay off if Woods and another promising sophomore, end Anthony Bynum, keep developing. But if a unit takes a bit step forward in 2025, I’m guessing it will be the offense. Regardless, MTSU has a level of continuity and experience that others in the CUSA don’t have; maybe that pays off.
Head coach: Tony Sanchez (second year, 3-9 overall)
2025 projection: 122nd in SP+ (106th offense, 124th defense), 5.4 average wins, 3.4 conference wins
Jerry Kill won 17 games in two seasons at NMSU (2022-23). In the 19 seasons before his arrival, the Aggies averaged 2.8 wins per year. In their first after his departure, they won three. In case someone forgot how hard a job this one can be, reality struck the moment Kill left.
While Kill was serving as chief consultant to the head coach at Vanderbilt in 2024 (and helping to create a sudden renaissance with quarterback Diego Pavia and other former Aggies), Tony Sanchez was attempting to plot a new way forward in Las Cruces. His 2024 Aggies still ran the ball pretty well, and the play-action game occasionally struck gold. But there was no consistency in the passing game, and an aggressive defense didn’t make enough big plays to counteract the ones it was allowing. The Aggies could engage in track meets at times — they scored 28 or more points in five games — but they still ranked just 120th in points per drive, and the defense was shaky enough that they won only two of those five prolific games.
While the run game was a strength, both leading rushers and six of last year’s top seven linemen are gone. The line still has solid size, and former blue-chip backs Kadarius Calloway (Cal) and Dijon Stanley (Utah) will join either incumbent quarterback Parker Awad or Montana transfer Logan Fife in the backfield. But new offensive coordinator David Yost, a spread offense old hand, usually likes to throw the ball a bit. PJ Johnson III is good at go routes, but we’ll see which of five pass-catching transfers emerges as interesting weapons.
Defensively, we’ll start with the good: Linebackers Tyler Martinez and Sone Aupiu (combined: 23 run stops) are rock solid playmakers, Dakerric Hobbs is one of the most aggressive (and often successful) cornerbacks in the conference, and with Sanchez signing seven JUCO defensive backs, including six safeties, it’s pretty likely that a couple will emerge as solid options. But when you rank 127th in defensive SP+, then lose eight starters, improvement isn’t exactly guaranteed. Sanchez stuck with coordinator Joe Morris, and I like the aggression, but odds are good that the Aggies will still get burned quite a bit.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Scotty Walden (second year, 3-9 overall)
2025 projection: 123rd in SP+ (122nd offense, 113th defense), 4.8 average wins, 3.3 conference wins
If Sam Houston was the most fortunate team in the conference in 2024, UTEP was the least. The Miners ranked 101st in turnovers luck, 105th in close-game fortune and 124th in lineup stability. Only three offensive or defensive players started all 12 games and, by my count, 44 started at least one. That is a number I wouldn’t have thought possible. That the team went 3-3 down the stretch might have been a slight sign of improvement, but it was a lost season from the start.
Of those 44 starters, 21 return in 2025, including explosive wideout Kenny Odom and disruptive defenders in tackle KD Johnson and outside linebacker Nate Dyman. But Scotty Walden was super-aggressive this offseason, bringing in two new coordinators — former TCU QBs coach Mark Cala on offense, former Montana State DC Bobby Daly on defense — and 30 transfers. Former USC and Boise State blue-chipper Malachi Nelson was the biggest name of the bunch, but a majority of the transfers were defenders. Among the more intriguing: defensive end Ashaad Hall (11 sacks at SC State) and safety Tyler Jones (four TFLs and 14 passes defended at Tennessee State). Daly’s first Miners defense will be aggressive and reasonably experienced.
Either Nelson or incumbent QB Skyler Locklear will have a decent pair of veteran receivers in Odom and slot man Kam Thomas, but the run game was abysmal last season, and that could make explosive former Charlotte RB Hahsaun Wilson (6.1 yards per carry in 2024) nearly as important as Nelson. The offensive line lost three starters but should still be big and pretty senior-heavy.
Head coach: Jerry Mack (first year)
2025 projection: 131st in SP+ (136th offense, 93rd defense), 4.3 average wins, 3.0 conference wins
I hated that, after one tough season in FBS, Kennesaw State fired the only head coach in its history. Brian Bohannon had the Owls in the FCS playoffs by their third year in existence; it was easy to think he should get a first-year FBS mulligan.
I also loved the replacement hire. Jerry Mack was excellent at NC Central in the mid-2010s, and after a few years as Rice’s offensive coordinator and an RBs coach with Tennessee (2023) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (2024), he took over at KSU in December. He kept a solid portion of last year’s defense intact — 13 of the 17 players with at least 200 snaps return — and he also added a Big Ten starter (Purdue linebacker Antonio Stevens), formerly well-touted recruits like end Nasir Smith (Georgia Southern), nickel Kody Jones (Michigan), corner Caleb Offord (Notre Dame/Alabama State) and safety Isaiah Thomas (Miami), and exciting smaller-school transfers like end Elijah Harper (Emory & Henry) and tackle Mike Jones (Virginia Union). This should be a top-half-of-CUSA defense.
The offense, however, projects as the worst in the country. Longtime Josh Heupel assistant Mitch Militello takes the reins of a former option attack; starting quarterback Davis Bryson is now a receiver, and the most proven passer is either Georgia Southern transfer Dexter Williams II (248 yards last season) or Wofford transfer Amari Odom (1,565 in FCS). Meanwhile, no returning rusher topped 29 rushing yards last year, and no returning receiver topped 203 receiving yards. Seven offensive line transfers (including two FBS starters) could transform that unit, but it might take a year of experimentation for Militello to figure out what he has.
Florida International Panthers
Head coach: Willie Simmons (first year)
2025 projection: 129th in SP+ (124th offense, 118th defense), 4.5 average wins, 2.9 conference wins
In 21 FBS seasons, FIU has finished with a winning record four times and won either zero or one game five times. Its last two hires — former Miami head man Butch Davis and former San José State and Colorado coach and resurrection expert Mike MacIntyre — were both extremely logical, but after a brief run of success under Davis, the Golden Panthers have gone a combined 13-40 over the last five seasons. This one ranks pretty high on the hard jobs list.
MacIntyre’s last team both threw the ball and defended the pass pretty well, and FIU improved from 128th to 112th in SP+, but a 1-5 record in one-score finishes resulted in MacIntyre’s firing. One could suggest this was rash, but as with Kennesaw State, the replacement hire was intriguing. A Tallahassee native, Willie Simmons was excellent as head coach at both Prairie View A&M and Florida A&M. His first portal haul included a number of former power-conference prospects, including running back Anthony Carrie (Georgia Tech), receiver JoJo Stone (Louisville), guard Antonio Tripp Jr. (Miami), and defensive ends Dante Anderson and Lamont Green Jr. (both from Florida State).
It doesn’t feel like there are nearly enough pieces, though. Undersized defensive tackle Jamarrion Solomon and corner Brian Blades II are decent veteran building blocks on defense, but they’re also the only two returning defenders who started more than five games. Meanwhile, quarterback Keyone Jenkins (2,557 yards, 22 TDs) returns, but he lost his two best receivers to the portal, and the offensive two-deep will likely be loaded with sophomores. I really like the Simmons hire, but there are probably no quick fixes here.
Welcome to the party
Head coach: Ryan Carty (fourth year, 26-11 overall)
2025 projection: 110th in SP+ (113th offense, 105th defense), 5.5 average wins, 3.8 conference wins
And now, the newbies. Neither Delaware nor Missouri State is eligible for the CUSA title game (and would only be bowl eligible with six-plus wins if there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams elsewhere), but both could be pretty decent out of the FBS gate.
That’s especially true for Delaware. Though ineligible for the FCS playoffs last season, the Blue Hens went 9-2 and ranked fifth in FCS SP+, equivalent to about 100th (between Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech) in FBS. They were good despite three quarterbacks logging major minutes — two of them, senior Zach Marker and junior Nick Minicucci, return — and despite quite a few then-sophomores playing major roles. The offense’s two best playmakers (RB Marcus Yarns and WR Phil Lutz) are gone, but RB Jo’Nathan Silver is proven, and six returnees (including Silver) caught double-digit passes. The line, led by left tackle Anwar O’neal and left guard Patrick Shupp, certainly passes the FBS size test.
The defense was as good as the offense last season and returns 17 of the 22 players with double-digit tackles, though star end Melkart Abou-Jaoude transferred to North Carolina. Size up front might be an issue — tackle Dominick Brogna is the only player who was listed at more than 280 pounds last season — but the secondary is big and physical, and safety KT Seay should immediately be one of the best in the conference.
Ryan Carty was KC Keeler’s offensive coordinator when Sam Houston won the FCS national title in spring 2021, and he immediately reestablished Delaware as a top-15ish FCS program when he took over in 2022. He’s letting it ride in 2025, having brought in only a few transfers (most of them redshirt freshmen or sophomores), and his first FBS team is a projected favorite in five games and only a slight underdog in four others. I’d be surprised if this weren’t a pretty fun and competitive season for the Hens.
Head coach: Ryan Beard (third year, 12-11 overall)
2025 projection: 127th in SP+ (76th offense, 136th defense), 4.0 average wins, 3.2 conference wins
Missouri State wasn’t quite as good as Delaware in 2024 (18th in FCS SP+) and doesn’t return quite as much of last year’s production — the Bears must replace a large portion of their skill corps and about half of their defensive regulars. But you could understand if MSU isn’t feeling all that intimidated by the move up to FBS. Conference USA might be better than the Missouri Valley on average, but the Bears are certainly used to playing against FCS super-programs like North Dakota State and South Dakota State, which are annually as good as the best CUSA teams. Strong competition levels don’t automatically make you a strong team, but MSU is pretty battle-tested for a newbie.
If the Bears enjoy first-year success, it will likely be because of the offense: It ranked fifth in offensive SP+ in FCS last season, and 6-foot-5 quarterback Jacob Clark (3,604 yards, 26 TDs) is immediately one of the more proven QBs in Conference USA. He’ll be without five of the seven players who caught at least 20 passes last year, but the wonderfully named returning duo of Jmariyae Robinson and James BlackStrain combined for 62 catches and 953 yards. Ryan Beard was concerned enough about the offensive line to add four transfers, but size won’t be an issue, at least. (Overall, Beard was more active in the portal than Carty, though he, too, brought in more youngsters than instant-impact guys.)
Size should also hold up on defense, where coordinator L.D. Scott will have a line anchored by Gilles Tchio (310 pounds) and Sterling Smithson (325). Maybe that drives solid run defense, but MSU is replacing last year’s top two pass rushers and top three cornerbacks. That’s an obvious concern.
The projections aren’t as optimistic for MSU — the Bears are favorites in only two games. But five other games are projected within 4 points, so it wouldn’t take much overachievement to build a solid first-year win total.
Sports
Forget the elite batting average and eye-popping home runs — for Aaron Judge, it’s all about staying healthy
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Jorge Castillo
LOS ANGELES — Every two weeks, from 2017 through the 2024 season, Richard Schenck visited Aaron Judge to help refine his superstar pupil’s swing. But they haven’t met at all this season. There hasn’t been a need.
“The darn swing is pretty much automatic,” said Schenck, a hitting instructor based in Missouri. “There’s no thinking anymore. There’s just see ball, hit ball. And when he swings the bat, the good swing comes out. No tuneup needed.”
Thorough upkeeping isn’t required as Judge builds on the best 13-month regular-season stretch from a right-handed hitter in Major League Baseball history. There are a few reasons for the New York Yankees slugger’s otherworldly success — from swing optimization to accumulated experience — but there’s one factor that matters most: Judge, a towering behemoth hampered by injuries early in his career, is staying on the field as he enters his mid-30s.
“I think that’s the biggest thing, is getting a chance to just play every single day and I can make those adjustments,” said Judge, who celebrated his 33rd birthday last month and became a father in January. “If I have a couple bad games, I can make an adjustment, figure it out and get to work.
“When you get hurt, your main focus is getting back on the field and when you get back on the field now it’s, ‘My swing ain’t right’ because I’ve missed out on 120, 150 at-bats. So, I think that’s been the biggest thing for me.”
Judge crushed 52 home runs in 155 games as a rookie in 2017, but injuries followed. From 2018, Judge’s second full season, through the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, the slugger appeared in just 63% of the Yankees’ regular-season games. He landed on the injured list four times with wrist, oblique and calf injuries (plus another stint after a positive COVID-19 test).
From the start of the 2021 season through the Yankees’ 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday, he has appeared in 89% of their games. The percentage would be higher were it not for a freak injury nearly two years ago.
This weekend, the Yankees return to Dodger Stadium for a World Series rematch against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was here, in June 2023, that Judge suffered a torn ligament in his right big toe crashing into a bullpen gate in right field to make a catch. Judge missed 42 games. The Yankees, consequently, crashed without him. They didn’t reach the postseason and nearly finished below .500 for the first time in more than 30 years. He hasn’t been on the injured list since.
For all the jaw-dropping numbers, Yankees manager Aaron Boone believes Judge’s ability to remain in the lineup is where the two-time American League MVP has shown the most growth.
“I think it really pissed him off,” Boone said of Judge consistently missing time. “The thing he’s done so well the last few years is there’s been days where he’s played every day, where in the past I would’ve given him a day. He knows how to do that now.”
Keeping healthy means Judge isn’t stopping and starting, again and again. He’s not constantly looking to find his swing, his rhythm, his confidence. He is making revisions on the fly, incorporating what he has learned and barreling forward, punishing pitchers in the process.
“It’s all about staying on the field,” Judge said. “You stay on the field and you’re going to produce. And I was kind of sick and tired of having little nagging things that kind of pop up throughout the season. So if I was going to do something that my team could rely on for quite a few years, you can’t be playing only 100 games a year. So I made a couple of changes and here we are.”
Among those changes, Judge said he began avoiding sweets and hired a year-round chef. To maintain his explosiveness, he incorporates jumping into his workouts and makes sure to reach his top speed during his pregame routine. Listed at 6-foot-7, 282 pounds, an unprecedented size for an every-day outfielder, Judge said he has reached out to football players for advice on staying healthy as he grows older.
“Nobody to put on record,” Judge said with a grin when asked if he could share any names. “But you see around the sport, there’s a lot of guys that play into their 40s and continue to play at a high level and that’s kind of something I wanted.
“I invest in, if it’s trainers, food, paying for a chef. It may seem like that’s an expense you don’t need to pay for, but I think it all works out. You get to the back end, if it’s going to help me play another 30 games or if it’s another three years, I’ll take anything.”
Judge enters Friday’s series opener in Los Angeles as the early favorite to win his third AL MVP Award in four seasons. He claimed his first in 2022 when he clubbed an AL-record 62 home runs. He earned it again last season when he moved to center field to accommodate Juan Soto despite a relatively sluggish start. This year, back in right field without Soto around, he’s better than ever, batting .395 with 18 home runs and a 1.234 OPS — and playing in all 54 games for the first-place Yankees.
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, one of Judge’s new teammates this season, won the 2022 National League MVP Award with the St. Louis Cardinals in his age-34 season. He’s one of 16 players to win an MVP at that age or older. He understands the work necessary to maintain elite performance. How the body changes and the grind becomes increasingly difficult as the years pass.
“What he’s doing is amazing,” Goldschmidt said. “It’s definitely harder as you get older and you’re in your mid- or late 30s. I think it can obviously still be done and guys have produced at a high level. And I think he can and will do that. It’s like almost Barry Bondish where it’s like he’s getting one pitch to hit a game and he’s hitting it. Everyone knows he’s one of the best, if not the best hitter on the planet.”
Since April 27 of last year, Judge leads the majors with a mind-blowing 244 wRC+ — (Shohei Ohtani‘s 178 is second) and 15.8 fWAR (Bobby Witt Jr. is second with 11.7) during the regular season. He’s hitting .365 with 72 home runs, 178 RBIs and a 1.253 OPS in 186 games while missing just four. It’s an output not seen since peak Bonds in the early 2000s. And they’re numbers the Yankees did not envision before Judge’s historic 2022 season.
Back then, with Judge coming off his first healthy campaign in four years and entering his platform season, the club offered him a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension. Judge rejected the offer. The next winter — an 11.1 fWAR season and 62 home runs later — he declined more money on the West Coast to sign a nine-year, $360 million deal to return to the Bronx as the Yankees’ captain.
It was, at the time, the highest average annual salary ever given to a position player. Judge was about to commence his age-31 season. His injury history indicated the Yankees were taking a risk. But it has proved to be among the shrewdest bargains in the sport because, above all, Judge is staying on the field.
“Going back to a couple of years before I signed my deal, I never wanted to be a guy that was on the IL for the whole deal,” Judge said. “I wanted to be a guy that the team could depend on. I wanted to be a cornerstone person that when people come to the ballpark and when they turn on the game to watch the Yankees, I’m there every single night. So, I just want to take pride in that and take pride in my work.”
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