Will the Padres or Dodgers advance? Predictions and everything you need for NLDS Game 5
Would you want it any other way? After four heated National League Division Series showdowns, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will meet in a win-or-go-home Game 5 at Dodger Stadium on Friday night.
Which side will get the last laugh in the intense NL West rivalry? What will decide the finale? And what drama will emerge this time around in Los Angeles?
We have you covered with pregame predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, 8:08 p.m.
Pitching matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA vs. Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA)
What is the key to Game 5 for the Padres?
Bradford Doolittle: The Padres have to guard against getting too big in their collective approach at the plate. What made San Diego’s offense so dynamic during the season was its ability to score in different ways. Against the Dodgers, 62% of the Padres’ runs have come on long balls. That’s fine when the ball is leaving the yard, and the Padres have won two games this series in that fashion. But it has been a well-balanced attack that has gotten the Padres this far, and if the game stays close and low scoring, they need to remember who they are and not swing from the heels on every cut.
Alden Gonzalez: Luis Arráez getting going offensively. He is their leadoff hitter and in many ways a tone-setter for their offense, but he has struggled through the first four games of this series, with three hits in 18 at-bats. Given how hot Fernando Tatis Jr. has been behind him, and the presence of Manny Machado two batters later, Arráez reaching base multiple times could play a major role in reigniting the lineup after it was shut out in Game 4. The Padres scoring early runs and taking the Dodger Stadium crowd out of it will be critical to capturing a Game 5 win in a hostile environment. Arráez, perhaps more so than anybody else, holds those keys.
David Schoenfield: Yu Darvish getting the game to the bullpen with the lead. He did that in Game 2 when he allowed just one run in seven innings, a performance that led manager Mike Shildt to make the questionable decision to start Dylan Cease on short rest in Game 4 — because he wanted Darvish to start Game 5. Dodgers fans undoubtedly remember Darvish’s two poor performances in the 2017 World Series — when the Astros, of course, might have been stealing signs, although his Game 7 outing came at Dodger Stadium — but Darvish has actually been pretty good in the postseason since then (2.56 ERA in six starts with three of those going seven innings). He succeeded in Game 2 despite inducing only seven swings and misses, so Shildt will want to see if Darvish is missing bats early. If not, it might be wise to go to his bullpen sooner rather than later.
What is the key to Game 5 for the Dodgers?
Gonzalez: We don’t know how much Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be used, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said he will be “part of” Game 5, either to open or to come in later. Yamamoto made his Dodgers debut against the Padres and was charged with five runs in one inning. He then made his postseason debut against them and was charged with five runs in three innings in Game 1, during which the Dodgers believe he was tipping pitches. Simply put: The highest-paid pitcher in baseball history needs to be better.
Doolittle: With the Dodgers’ pitching plan a little murky, it’s imperative that they keep the score close early. It seems that when things have gone south for the Dodgers in decisive playoff games, often it has been because one pitcher falters early. They’ll be watching a reminder of that history in Game 5 with Darvish on the mound for San Diego. The Dodgers can’t get down early because as much as their offense is capable of coming from behind, you don’t want to be playing catch-up into the middle innings against this San Diego bullpen.
Schoenfield: I’m not going to get too cute here: Shohei Ohtani. Especially if Freddie Freeman is unable to go again, the Dodgers need Ohtani to deposit a pitch — or two — into the outfield seats.
This series has been full of drama. Predict the one thing we’ll all be talking about after the finale:
Doolittle: That testy moment in Game 5. I don’t know when it will happen and whether Machado really did anything to contribute to it, but it’s coming. It’s a great rivalry and hypnotic to watch two teams go at it with such genuine disdain. Let’s just keep the fans out of it this time.
Gonzalez: That Major League Baseball should reseed in the playoffs, making this a best-of-seven series and the winner, whether it’s the Dodgers or the Padres, suddenly the favorite to win it all. These are the two best teams remaining, even if the Padres don’t have Joe Musgrove and the Dodgers are continually uncertain about Freeman.
Schoenfield: Freeman coming off the bench to deliver a crucial pinch-hit, two-run single.
And finally, which team will move on to face the Mets in the NL Championship Series?
Doolittle: Going back to a month before the regular season ended, I was telling people that it was really hard to look at how these teams match up right now and come up with a good reason to pick the Dodgers to beat the Padres. I’m sticking with that. Darvish was excellent in his first appearance, the Padres’ bullpen is deep and dynamic, and I fully expect Machado and Tatis to feast on one or two high-leverage moments in this game.
Schoenfield: Oddly, despite the Dodgers winning the division, it now feels like all the pressure is on the Padres — especially given their, shall we say, bravado on display in Game 2. The Padres weren’t able to channel that into a series-clinching win in Game 4, however, and now they need their bats to talk. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been expected to move on in recent years only to collapse. But this team has Ohtani. The Dodgers move on.
Live updates
Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis of Game 5.
Mike Sullivan, who led the Pittsburgh Penguins to back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017, is out as the team’s head coach, it was announced Monday.
Sullivan was the longest-tenured coach in Penguins history after just completing his 10th season. The 57-year-old, who also coached Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, was under contract in Pittsburgh through 2026-27.
In a statement, Penguins GM Kyle Dubas said the decision was “the best course forward for all involved” as Pittsburgh navigates a transitional period.
“On behalf of Fenway Sports Group and the Penguins organization, I would like to thank Mike Sullivan for his unwavering commitment and loyalty to the team and City of Pittsburgh over the past decade,” Dubas said. “Mike is known for his preparation, focus and fierce competitiveness. I was fortunate to have a front-row seat to his dedication to this franchise for the past two seasons. He will forever be an enormous part of Penguins history, not only for the impressive back-to-back Cups, his impact on the core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Bryan Rust, but more importantly, for his love and loyalty to the organization. This was not a decision that was taken lightly, but as we continue to navigate the Penguins through this transitional period, we felt it was the best course forward for all involved.”
The Penguins have missed the playoffs for three straight seasons as Dubas works to retool the team into a contender while Crosby is still competing at a high level. Crosby just completed his 20th straight season in which he posted a point-per-game scoring pace, and he was voted by his peers in the NHLPA as the league’s most complete player. The captain is under contract through next season on a two-year extension he signed prior to the 2024-25 season.
Sullivan was elevated to Penguins head coach in 2015 after leading the organization’s AHL team in Wilkes-Barre. With 409 wins in Pittsburgh, he leaves as the Penguins’ all-time wins leader.
With Sullivan’s departure, there are now seven head-coaching vacancies in the NHL. The Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, Anaheim Ducks, Seattle Kraken and New York Rangers are also searching for new coaches right now. According to sources, Sullivan has been atop the Rangers’ wish list.
Sources also said Sullivan is keen on coaching again next season and will be a top candidate for several of the vacancies. Sullivan worked as an assistant coach with the Rangers and as both an assistant and head coach with the Bruins earlier in his career.
Home teams are on a tear in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs, going 21-10 thus far. Will that trend continue Monday?
The early matchup is Game 4 of the Battle of Florida, and the festivities have become heated; Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel was given a major penalty for his hit on Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2, and subsequently suspended for Game 3. In that game, Matthew Tkachuk leveled a hard hit on Jake Guentzel but did not receive the same punishment. What will transpire in Game 4?
In the nightcap, the clash of West titans continues, as the Colorado Avalanche look to keep the momentum going after their 4-0 victory over the Dallas Stars in Game 4 on Saturday.
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Sunday’s games, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Game 4 (FLA leads 2-1) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Teams that hold a 2-1 series lead have gone on to win the best-of-seven matchup 69% of the time in Stanley Cup playoff history. The Panthers have won two out of three best-of-seven series when holding a 2-1 lead, and the Lightning are 6-7 all time when trailing 2-1.
Jake Guentzel had three points (goal, two assists) in Game 3, and his 40 career playoff goals are third most among active U.S.-born players, trailing Patrick Kane (53) and Chris Kreider (48).
With his win in Game 3, Andrei Vasilevskiy now has 67 for his postseason career, second most among active goaltenders (behind Marc-Andre Fleury, who has 92), and one behind Andy Moog for 11th on the all-time list.
Matthew Tkachuk scored his third goal of the series in Game 3, and became the third player in franchise history with 20 career playoffs goals (Carter Verhaeghe 26, Sam Reinhart 22); he is also the third Panther to record 50 playoff points for the club (Aleksander Barkov 62, Verhaeghe 54).
Aaron Ekblad‘s return from suspension didn’t go so well. According to Stathletes, Ekblad and Gustav Forsling played 10:50 together at 5-on-5, and the Lightning scored three goals while they were on the ice.
Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
With the series tied 2-2, history is on the Stars’ side: Colorado is 11-12 when a series is tied 2-2. Dallas has gone 18-14 in the same scenario.
Nathan MacKinnon is up to 52 career playoff goals, which is six away from tying Peter Forsberg for second in Avalanche/Nordiques franchise history; Joe Sakic is first with 84.
Gabriel Landeskog made his return to the ice in Game 3 for the first time since the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, and scored a goal in Game 4, the 28th playoff goal of his career.
Mikko Rantanen (formerly of the Avs, now of the Stars) has only one point (an assist) through four games, but it’s not for a lack of trying; he has 12 shots on goal, which is second most on the team this postseason (Roope Hintz has 13).
Stars goalie Jake Oettinger was pulled in Game 4, just the fourth time in 49 career playoff starts he has played 40 minutes or less. Since 2022, Oettinger has the second-most postseason wins (25), behind Sergei Bobrovsky (34).
Arda’s three stars from Sunday night
Svechnikov potted a hat trick to lift the Canes to a 5-2 win against the Devils in Newark, giving them a 3-1 series lead. Svechnikov is the only Hurricanes/Whalers player in franchise history (45 seasons, 205 playoff games) with a hat trick in the playoffs (he now has two).
His two goals in the third period tied the game at 3, setting the stage for the Oilers to win in OT and tie up the series. Bouchard is now the fourth defenseman to have back-to-back multigoal games in Stanley Cup playoff history.
After two points over the first three games of the series, Neighbors scored a goal and added two assists as the Blues emphatically tied the series with a 5-1 victory in Game 4.
Sunday’s scores
St. Louis Blues 5, Winnipeg Jets 1
Series tied 2-2 | Game 5 Wednesday
Although he is the overwhelming favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goalie in the regular season, Connor Hellebuyck is not having a great time this postseason. He was pulled in the third period of this loss after giving up five goals on 18 shots. Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor opened the scoring in this game, but the Blues charged back with five straight goals off the sticks of Jake Neighbours, Tyler Tucker, Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk and Robert Thomas. The home team has won every game in this series. Will that continue in Game 5 in Winnipeg? Full recap.
0:51
Tyler Tucker puts the Blues ahead with a goal
Tyler Tucker scores in the second period to give the Blues a 2-1 lead over the Jets.
Carolina Hurricanes 5, New Jersey Devils 2
CAR leads 3-1 | Game 5 Tuesday
After the Canes went up 3-0, the Devils punched back with two second-period goals, and Carolina starting goalie Frederik Andersen was knocked out after a collision with New Jersey’s Timo Meier. However, that was as close as the Devils would get, as Brent Burns added a goal at 14:14 of the third, and Andrei Svechnikov finished off his hat trick with an empty-net goal to seal the deal. Full recap.
2:05
Andrei Svechnikov scores his second career playoff hat trick
Andrei Svechnikov lit the ice with his second career playoff hat trick in Game 4 vs. the Devils.
Washington Capitals 5, Montreal Canadiens 2
WSH leads 3-1 | Game 5 Wednesday
The Bell Centre was rocking again for this one. Washington’s Dylan Strome started the scoring at 1:25 of the second period, but the Canadiens answered back with two power-play goals (from Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield) to take the lead heading into the third. However, the Caps proved they were the better team, tying it 6:39 into the third, taking the lead 10 minutes later and then pumping in two empty-netters to put it out of reach. Full recap.
0:39
Andrew Mangiapane’s big-time goal gives Caps a lead in the 3rd period
Andrew Mangiapane notches a big-time goal to give the Capitals a lead late in the third period.
Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Series tied 2-2 | Game 5 Tuesday
Another back-and-forth contest for these two teams. The Kings held a 3-1 lead heading into the third, thanks to goals from Trevor Moore, Warren Foegele and Kevin Fiala. But the Oilers came back, thanks to a pair of goals by Evan Bouchard (both of which were assisted by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid) to send the game to overtime. Draisaitl then scored the winner on the power play with just 1:42 left in the extra session. Full recap.
1:14
Leon Draisaitl’s OT winner evens the series for the Oilers
Leon Draisaitl nets the winning goal in overtime to give the Oilers a dramatic win over the Kings in Game 4.
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