Breaking down the wildest moments of Yankees-Guardians Game 3
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
CLEVELAND — For nearly an hour Thursday night, the New York Yankees had seemingly overcome a bout of sloppy baseball to pull within a win of the World Series in jaw-dropping, crowd-silencing, totally bonkers fashion.
Down two runs with two outs in the eighth inning, the Yankees were tasked to solve Emmanuel Clase, the best closer in baseball, to give themselves a chance to take a 3-0 series lead. In 74 regular season appearances, the fireballer allowed five earned runs. The Detroit Tigers got to him once in the AL Division series — before he shut them down again in multi-inning appearances in the next two games. Erasing the deficit appeared next-to-impossible.
Then Aaron Judge blasted a low line drive that pierced through the air, just over the right-field wall for a game-tying two-run home run. Two minutes later, Giancarlo Stanton crushed a slider over the wall in center-field to make it back-to-back homers and a one-run New York lead. The Yankees spilled out of their dugout in celebration. They had slayed the mighty Clase.
Then, well, then a game bordering on the absurd leaped across the line to give us one of the most memorable games in recent postseason history.
“That was an incredible game on both sides. All the emotions, ups and downs, back and forth, you name it,” Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “If there’s an emotion, we all felt it on both sides.”
Roller coaster. Heavyweight fight. Insert cliche here. It was a classic baseball game. Here are the game’s six biggest moments — with the win probability before each turn — to illustrate the madness.
Top of the eighth inning, two outs
Cleveland leads, 3-1
Win probability: 93.2% Cleveland
The Judge at-bat against Clase starts with what happened moments before it started, when Guardians right-hander Hunter Gaddis seemed to pitch around Soto. Gaddis, whose 5% walk rate during the regular season was tied for 14th among relievers, issued a two-out, four-pitch walk to Soto, and none of the pitches were particularly close. Vogt then replaced Gaddis with Clase.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he didn’t believe Gaddis pitched around Soto. Judge said he had “no idea.” Regardless, the sequence set up a marquee matchup. Judge vs. Clase. Power vs. power. The best hitter in the world against the best reliever in the world.
The clash tilted toward Clase early. The right-hander jumped ahead on Judge with a cutter down the middle that Judge fouled off and a cutter down away he swung through. Judge then took a 99-mph cutter way off the plate before Clase dotted the outside corner with another 99-mph cutter.
“He just stayed with it,” Stanton said of Judge. “It was incredible. It wasn’t a bad pitch. It was low and away, on the black. And he does what he does.”
What Judge did was barrel the baseball. It traveled 109.9 mph off the bat and landed 356 away, just over the wall, and bounced into the stands as Judge sprinted to first base. Tie game.
“I thought it was low,” Judge said. “So, you know, my first thought is try to be on second base. Hopefully Juan can score or he’s at third base. But try to get on second base for Big G coming up in that situation.”
Top of the eighth inning, two outs
Tie game, 3-3
Win probability: 59.9% Cleveland
Like his fellow gargantuan teammate, Stanton fell behind 0-2. He fouled off a 91-mph slider, swung through a 100-mph cutter, and fouled off a cutter down the middle. Two pitches later, he fouled off a 93-mph slider over the plate. Those two pitches stuck with him.
“He was riding the cutters and sliders in, so it was just get one out over the plate,” Stanton said. “And I missed a couple out over the plate so I was able to get to the third one.”
The third one was the seventh pitch of the battle, a 90-mph slider that caught too much plate. Stanton pounced with an 85-mph swing — the hardest by a player on either side Thursday. It jumped off the bat at 106.1 mph and was deposited 390 feet from home plate.
“I think I threw a right fist pump, like fired up,” Boone said. “But you’re right in the game …You’re kind of staying with what’s next. But you certainly feel the energy of a couple shots like that.”
And just like that, the Yankees had a lead. It was the first time Clase had given up multiple home runs in a game in 326 career appearances, postseason included. New York was three outs from pulling within a win of its first World Series appearance in 15 years. It was a stunning turn of events. And it was just getting started.
Bottom of the ninth inning, two outs
Yankees lead, 5-3
Win probability: 98.5% New York
Luke Weaver, called on for a four-out save, had danced out of a two-on, two-out jam in the eighth inning by striking out David Fry. Then, after Anthony Rizzo committed an error to start the bottom of the ninth, he started a nifty 1-6-3 double play to squash Cleveland’s momentum.
He was one out away from his fourth postseason save of at least four outs. It looked imminent when he jumped ahead 0-2 on Lane Thomas after the double play. But suddenly, he lost the momentum. The next three pitches were uncompetitive and Thomas took them to run the count full. The sixth pitch of the at-bat was a 95-mph fastball down and in that Thomas hooked off the tall left-field wall.
“You get to 0-2 and you just try to do a little too much,” Weaver said. “Thomas has a good at-bat there, and, yeah, the moment starts to get a little big. So just trying to take a step back and tonight didn’t quite have the execution in that moment that I needed to.”
Bottom of the ninth inning, two outs
Yankees lead, 5-3
Win probability: 95.4% New York
After the game, Vogt was clear about his motivation in sending Jhonkensy Noel up to pinch-hit for Daniel Schneemann: “I mean, he pinch hit to hit a homer,” Vogt said. “That’s why we sent him up there.” And, boy, did the man they call Big Christmas deliver.
After taking another uncompetitive pitch way out of the strike zone, Noel pounced on a fat changeup over the heart of the plate and left no doubt. He smoothly flipped his bat to the side the second he made contact to tie the game. Pandemonium rained around him. He had, at least for the moment, effectively saved the Guardians’ season.
“Just really felt like I let the team down there, myself down,” Weaver said. “It’s baseball, things like that happen. A twist of an arm and it just feels a little devastating. We’re still in a good position. Feel like there’s some momentum there, but they earned it. It was a crazy game. The bats were hot and the ball was flying out of the park.
Weaver hadn’t given up a home run or multiple runs since Sept. 2 — his last appearance before becoming the Yankees’ primary closer.
“It hurts a little bit more, yeah,” Weaver said. “It hurts a little bit more knowing how hard they work to get the game to where it was. It hurts even more knowing I had 0-2, we’re one pitch away after a big double play. Yeah, it all stinks. It hurts more knowing how close we were, how big a 3-0 [lead] would be. But that’s life. I’ve been through plenty of failure to know that it’s not always how we want it to be.”
Top of the 10th inning, one out
Tie game, 5-5
Win probabiiity: 50.8% New York
The Yankees were threatening to quickly retake the lead when Stanton worked a one-out walk to bring up Jazz Chisholm Jr., who had walked and singled in his previous two plate appearances. This time, the Yankees third baseman hit a chopper in the hold at second base that appeared destined to leak through the infield.
That is until Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez, ranging to his left, somehow snagged the baseball in shallow right field, twisted around, and made a leaping throw falling to his backside. It one-hopped to first baseman Josh Naylor, who stretched to his limit with his left foot just glancing the first base to complete the improbable out.
The play, reminiscent of the kinds Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar made in his three seasons as Cleveland’s second baseman at the turn of the century, deflated the Yankees’ rally.
“Andrés Giménez is the best infielder on the planet,” Vogt said. “He has been, and he will be. He makes plays that make us wow every single day it seems like.”
Bottom of the 10th inning, two outs
Tie game, 5-5
Win probability: 62.7% Cleveland
The night finally ended, after 3 hours and 52 minutes, with David Fry launching a mistake 1-2 sinker — up and over the plate — from Clay Holmes into the seats beyond the left-field wall.
“I just told God, like, ‘Hey, man, take this,'” Fry said. “It’s a tough matchup. Just try to have fun. You take the at-bat, got behind in the count and just got a pitch up in the zone and luckily it went out.”
The Yankees, up to that point, were 196-1 in their postseason history when leading by multiple runs in the ninth inning or later, according to ESPN Research. Their only other loss in that situation? Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS against … the Guardians.
“We’re supposed to go out there and do our job,” Holmes said. “That’s our job, to go out there and shut things down. Our hitters did a great job of putting us in position and we just didn’t make pitches. But our expectation is to go out there and put up zeroes.”
It was Fry’s second home run of the postseason, and both have been huge. The first was a go-ahead, two-run home run in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers with the Guardians facing elimination. That home run saved the Guardians’ season before they came back to advance another round. Time will tell if Thursday’s heroics will do the same.
The 150th running of the Preakness won’t have the fanfare of previous years.
There will be no Triple Crown on the line and no rematch of the 1-2 finishers in the Kentucky Derby after trainer Bill Mott elected to point Sovereignty toward the Belmont and bypass the Preakness.
Just three horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby will run in the Preakness on Saturday — Journalism, who finished second to Sovereignty, American Promise (16th) and Sandman (seventh). Nine horses will enter the race, including several newcomers to the Triple Crown trail.
Top storylines
While a Kentucky Derby winner skipping the Preakness is a rarity over the history of the race, it’s become more common in recent years. Country House, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after Maximum Security was disqualified, was not entered into the race by Mott due to a cough. Other ailments ended his career early and he never raced again.
Rich Strike was not entered in the 2022 Preakness and neither was 2021 winner Mandaloun, who was not declared the official winner of the Kentucky Derby until Medina Spirit was officially disqualified after failing a postrace drug test.
The modern order of the Triple Crown races, with the Kentucky Derby first and the Belmont last, was established permanently in 1932, with some exceptions. Notable Kentucky Derby winners who skipped the second leg are: Grindstone (1996, career-ending injury), Spend a Buck (1985), Gato Del Sol (1982), Tomy Lee (1959), Swaps (1955), Determine (1954), Hill Gail (1952), Count Turf (1951) and Lawrin (1938).
This will be the final Preakness run at Pimlico for several years, as the 155-year-old track is set to undergo renovations for the next several years, including the replacement of the current grandstand for a smaller version. The Preakness will move to Laurel Park until renovations are complete.
Betting the Preakness
by Katherine Terrell
What’s the big draw now that the Kentucky Derby winner is out of the race? Journalism, who went off as the betting favorite in the race, gets a chance for redemption.
While putting Journalism on top of our Kentucky Derby bets didn’t quite pan out, he’s certainly going to be a worthy, and heavy, favorite in this race. Don’t take his second-place finish as a knock on his talent — he’s the most accomplished horse in this field.
What about Sandman, who drew significant attention in the Kentucky Derby due to his name? Sandman was named after the Metallica Song “Enter Sandman,” and the band recently posted a video cheering him on ahead of the Preakness.
Sandman’s trainer Mark Casse said the horse had tender feet going into his last race, causing him to sport glue-on shoes, but he has since been switched back to normal horseshoes. Sandman is a closer, meaning he would need a fast pace up front to be able to pass tiring horses and win this race.
Some of the more intriguing newcomers are Goal Oriented, trained by Bob Baffert and Steve Asmussen trainee Clever Again. Both are lightly raced, and bettors who are looking for better odds than Journalism provides might hope one of these two horses takes a step forward.
That’s the same situation as Gosger, who is 20-1 on the morning line but recently won the Grade III Lexington Stakes. He will also have to take a step forward or hope Journalism runs poorly off two weeks rest.
Journalism can sit back off the pace and hope the leaders get into a speed duel, a possibility with a lot of speed in the race. Either way, he’ll be a tough favorite to bet.
About the above chart: A Beyer number is a ratings system for speed during races. Some think horses need at least one race where they run a 95 Beyer number or over to be competitive in the Derby. Many of these horses have races where they’ve run over a 100 Beyer number or better.
The logical bet: Journalism to win (8-5) but will require a large bet to get a decent return.
The slightly better odds bet: Clever Again to win (5-1)
Two suggested bets:
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Exacta box: Journalism/Clever Again
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Trifecta: Journalism over Clever Again over River Thames, Gosger.
Best plays
by Anita Marks
No. 2 Journalism (8-5) is favored and rightfully so. He ran a great race in the Derby, but Sovereignty was just the better horse that day. With such a small field (nine horses), along with his pedigree, Journalism should dominate.
Other horses I fancy in the Preakness:
Clever Again (5-1) is a unique animal with a lot of talent. I believe he is the second-best horse in the race. Son of American Pharaoh — who won the Triple Crown — and trained by Steve Asmussen, an excellent trainer. He is super fast, is in great form and is training well.
Goal Oriented (6-1): A Bob Baffert horse. and will have one of the best jockeys on his back in Flavien Prat. He has the speed to come out of the No. 1 post and will be sent hard. Son of Not This Time and was the winner of a 1 1/16-mile race on the Kentucky Derby undercard. This will be his third race.
Preakness Plays:
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To win or place: Clever Again
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Exacta box: Goal Oriented, Journalism, Clever Again
After building a 2-0 lead on the Florida Panthers in their second-round series, the Toronto Maple Leafs are now down 3-2 leading into Friday’s Game 6 (8 p.m. ET, TNT).
Will this be the final game of the Maple Leafs’ season? Or will they force a Game 7 on Sunday?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Thursday’s games and the three stars of Thursday from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers
Game 6 | 8 p.m. ET | TNT
With the Panthers up 3-2 in the series, ESPN BET now lists them as -800 to win this series, with the Maple Leafs at +500. Florida’s Stanley Cup odds are now +300, while Toronto’s are +2500.
The Panthers are 5-1 all time when leading 3-2 in a seven-game series. The only loss came in the 2012 playoffs against the Devils. The Maple Leafs are 6-18 all time when trailing a series 3-2.
In Game 5, 14 different Panthers registered points, which is the most players to do so in a single playoff game in franchise history. Florida has had 17 different players score a goal this postseason, which breaks a single-postseason franchise record set in 1996.
With his fourth multipoint game of the playoffs, the Panthers’ Sam Reinhart is one of six players to hit that benchmark in the 2025 playoffs.
The Panthers have not trailed for 170:10 of game time since Carter Verhaeghe‘s tying goal 5:17 into the second period of Game 3.
Toronto’s Auston Matthews has zero goals in his past five games, which ties the longest goalless drought of his playoff career (other occurrences were in 2021 and 2023).
Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz is likely out for Game 6, turning the crease back over to Joseph Woll, who gave up five goals on 25 shots in Game 5.
Öcal’s three stars from Thursday
The likely Vezina Trophy winner made 22 saves in a 4-0 win, which is his second straight home shutout in this series.
Scheifele scored the opening goal in Game 5 and added an assist on Nikolaj Ehlers‘ power-play goal in the second. He now has three goals in potential elimination games, which is the most in Thrashers/Jets 2.0 franchise history.
Andersen has been great for the Canes. He gave up just one goal on 19 shots in the series-clinching win over the Capitals, and allowed just six goals total in the Hurricanes’ five games against Washington.
Thursday’s recaps
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 1
CAR wins 4-1, plays winner of TOR-FLA
With a spot in the Eastern Conference finals on the line for Carolina — and a continuation to at least Game 6 the motivation for the Capitals — the two teams battled in an inspired contest. Canes captain Jordan Staal got on the board first, but Washington’s Anthony Beauvillier answered four minutes later. The teams remained tied 1-1 until less than two minutes remaining when Andrei Svechnikov fired one past Logan Thompson. With the net empty, the Caps could not get the equalizer, and Seth Jarvis sealed the deal with an empty-netter with 27 seconds to play. Carolina now awaits the winner of Maple Leafs-Panthers in the conference finals. Full recap.
0:38
Seth Jarvis’ goal secures series win for Canes
Seth Jarvis notches a clutch goal to to secure the series win over the Capitals.
Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 0
DAL leads 3-2 | Game 6 Saturday
Needing a win to remain alive, the Jets got an emphatic one, backstopped by a 22-save shutout by Connor Hellebuyck. Mark Scheifele got Winnipeg on the board first, with his fourth goal of the playoffs at 6:17 of the second period. Nikolaj Ehlers added a power-play tally 2:20 into the third, with Vladislav Namestnikov joining the party at 12:07. With the net empty for Dallas, Ehlers added an empty-netter to cap things off and send Winnipeg fans home happy. Dallas has another chance to finish the series off at home Saturday — if not, Game 7 will be Monday, back in Winnipeg. Full recap.
0:42
Nikolaj Ehlers’ empty-netter secures Game 5 for the Jets
Nikolaj Ehlers scores the game-sealing empty-netter to secure the Game 5 win for the Jets over the Stars.
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