Breaking down the wildest moments of Yankees-Guardians Game 3
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
CLEVELAND — For nearly an hour Thursday night, the New York Yankees had seemingly overcome a bout of sloppy baseball to pull within a win of the World Series in jaw-dropping, crowd-silencing, totally bonkers fashion.
Down two runs with two outs in the eighth inning, the Yankees were tasked to solve Emmanuel Clase, the best closer in baseball, to give themselves a chance to take a 3-0 series lead. In 74 regular season appearances, the fireballer allowed five earned runs. The Detroit Tigers got to him once in the AL Division series — before he shut them down again in multi-inning appearances in the next two games. Erasing the deficit appeared next-to-impossible.
Then Aaron Judge blasted a low line drive that pierced through the air, just over the right-field wall for a game-tying two-run home run. Two minutes later, Giancarlo Stanton crushed a slider over the wall in center-field to make it back-to-back homers and a one-run New York lead. The Yankees spilled out of their dugout in celebration. They had slayed the mighty Clase.
Then, well, then a game bordering on the absurd leaped across the line to give us one of the most memorable games in recent postseason history.
“That was an incredible game on both sides. All the emotions, ups and downs, back and forth, you name it,” Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “If there’s an emotion, we all felt it on both sides.”
Roller coaster. Heavyweight fight. Insert cliche here. It was a classic baseball game. Here are the game’s six biggest moments — with the win probability before each turn — to illustrate the madness.
Top of the eighth inning, two outs
Cleveland leads, 3-1
Win probability: 93.2% Cleveland
The Judge at-bat against Clase starts with what happened moments before it started, when Guardians right-hander Hunter Gaddis seemed to pitch around Soto. Gaddis, whose 5% walk rate during the regular season was tied for 14th among relievers, issued a two-out, four-pitch walk to Soto, and none of the pitches were particularly close. Vogt then replaced Gaddis with Clase.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he didn’t believe Gaddis pitched around Soto. Judge said he had “no idea.” Regardless, the sequence set up a marquee matchup. Judge vs. Clase. Power vs. power. The best hitter in the world against the best reliever in the world.
The clash tilted toward Clase early. The right-hander jumped ahead on Judge with a cutter down the middle that Judge fouled off and a cutter down away he swung through. Judge then took a 99-mph cutter way off the plate before Clase dotted the outside corner with another 99-mph cutter.
“He just stayed with it,” Stanton said of Judge. “It was incredible. It wasn’t a bad pitch. It was low and away, on the black. And he does what he does.”
What Judge did was barrel the baseball. It traveled 109.9 mph off the bat and landed 356 away, just over the wall, and bounced into the stands as Judge sprinted to first base. Tie game.
“I thought it was low,” Judge said. “So, you know, my first thought is try to be on second base. Hopefully Juan can score or he’s at third base. But try to get on second base for Big G coming up in that situation.”
Top of the eighth inning, two outs
Tie game, 3-3
Win probability: 59.9% Cleveland
Like his fellow gargantuan teammate, Stanton fell behind 0-2. He fouled off a 91-mph slider, swung through a 100-mph cutter, and fouled off a cutter down the middle. Two pitches later, he fouled off a 93-mph slider over the plate. Those two pitches stuck with him.
“He was riding the cutters and sliders in, so it was just get one out over the plate,” Stanton said. “And I missed a couple out over the plate so I was able to get to the third one.”
The third one was the seventh pitch of the battle, a 90-mph slider that caught too much plate. Stanton pounced with an 85-mph swing — the hardest by a player on either side Thursday. It jumped off the bat at 106.1 mph and was deposited 390 feet from home plate.
“I think I threw a right fist pump, like fired up,” Boone said. “But you’re right in the game …You’re kind of staying with what’s next. But you certainly feel the energy of a couple shots like that.”
And just like that, the Yankees had a lead. It was the first time Clase had given up multiple home runs in a game in 326 career appearances, postseason included. New York was three outs from pulling within a win of its first World Series appearance in 15 years. It was a stunning turn of events. And it was just getting started.
Bottom of the ninth inning, two outs
Yankees lead, 5-3
Win probability: 98.5% New York
Luke Weaver, called on for a four-out save, had danced out of a two-on, two-out jam in the eighth inning by striking out David Fry. Then, after Anthony Rizzo committed an error to start the bottom of the ninth, he started a nifty 1-6-3 double play to squash Cleveland’s momentum.
He was one out away from his fourth postseason save of at least four outs. It looked imminent when he jumped ahead 0-2 on Lane Thomas after the double play. But suddenly, he lost the momentum. The next three pitches were uncompetitive and Thomas took them to run the count full. The sixth pitch of the at-bat was a 95-mph fastball down and in that Thomas hooked off the tall left-field wall.
“You get to 0-2 and you just try to do a little too much,” Weaver said. “Thomas has a good at-bat there, and, yeah, the moment starts to get a little big. So just trying to take a step back and tonight didn’t quite have the execution in that moment that I needed to.”
Bottom of the ninth inning, two outs
Yankees lead, 5-3
Win probability: 95.4% New York
After the game, Vogt was clear about his motivation in sending Jhonkensy Noel up to pinch-hit for Daniel Schneemann: “I mean, he pinch hit to hit a homer,” Vogt said. “That’s why we sent him up there.” And, boy, did the man they call Big Christmas deliver.
After taking another uncompetitive pitch way out of the strike zone, Noel pounced on a fat changeup over the heart of the plate and left no doubt. He smoothly flipped his bat to the side the second he made contact to tie the game. Pandemonium rained around him. He had, at least for the moment, effectively saved the Guardians’ season.
“Just really felt like I let the team down there, myself down,” Weaver said. “It’s baseball, things like that happen. A twist of an arm and it just feels a little devastating. We’re still in a good position. Feel like there’s some momentum there, but they earned it. It was a crazy game. The bats were hot and the ball was flying out of the park.
Weaver hadn’t given up a home run or multiple runs since Sept. 2 — his last appearance before becoming the Yankees’ primary closer.
“It hurts a little bit more, yeah,” Weaver said. “It hurts a little bit more knowing how hard they work to get the game to where it was. It hurts even more knowing I had 0-2, we’re one pitch away after a big double play. Yeah, it all stinks. It hurts more knowing how close we were, how big a 3-0 [lead] would be. But that’s life. I’ve been through plenty of failure to know that it’s not always how we want it to be.”
Top of the 10th inning, one out
Tie game, 5-5
Win probabiiity: 50.8% New York
The Yankees were threatening to quickly retake the lead when Stanton worked a one-out walk to bring up Jazz Chisholm Jr., who had walked and singled in his previous two plate appearances. This time, the Yankees third baseman hit a chopper in the hold at second base that appeared destined to leak through the infield.
That is until Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez, ranging to his left, somehow snagged the baseball in shallow right field, twisted around, and made a leaping throw falling to his backside. It one-hopped to first baseman Josh Naylor, who stretched to his limit with his left foot just glancing the first base to complete the improbable out.
The play, reminiscent of the kinds Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar made in his three seasons as Cleveland’s second baseman at the turn of the century, deflated the Yankees’ rally.
“Andrés Giménez is the best infielder on the planet,” Vogt said. “He has been, and he will be. He makes plays that make us wow every single day it seems like.”
Bottom of the 10th inning, two outs
Tie game, 5-5
Win probability: 62.7% Cleveland
The night finally ended, after 3 hours and 52 minutes, with David Fry launching a mistake 1-2 sinker — up and over the plate — from Clay Holmes into the seats beyond the left-field wall.
“I just told God, like, ‘Hey, man, take this,'” Fry said. “It’s a tough matchup. Just try to have fun. You take the at-bat, got behind in the count and just got a pitch up in the zone and luckily it went out.”
The Yankees, up to that point, were 196-1 in their postseason history when leading by multiple runs in the ninth inning or later, according to ESPN Research. Their only other loss in that situation? Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS against … the Guardians.
“We’re supposed to go out there and do our job,” Holmes said. “That’s our job, to go out there and shut things down. Our hitters did a great job of putting us in position and we just didn’t make pitches. But our expectation is to go out there and put up zeroes.”
It was Fry’s second home run of the postseason, and both have been huge. The first was a go-ahead, two-run home run in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers with the Guardians facing elimination. That home run saved the Guardians’ season before they came back to advance another round. Time will tell if Thursday’s heroics will do the same.
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NHL Power Rankings: Capitals retain the crown, plus each team’s most intriguing game before 4 Nations
NHL teams will be taking a break in the middle of February for the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, featuring star players from each team playing for the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland.
But before that event begins, which games are the most intriguing? As part of this week’s updated edition of the Power Rankings, we’ve identified the top captivating contest for all 32 teams — whether it’s a game against a rival, one that takes on added value in the playoff races, or something else entirely.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Jan. 17. Points percentages and paces are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 73.96%
Feb. 1 vs. Jets. Not only is this a potential Stanley Cup Final preview — sponsored by the letter W? — but thanks to their heritage as the Southeast Division’s Atlanta Thrashers, the Jets franchise is the team against which Alex Ovechkin has scored the most goals in his career (55). How many will he get in this one?
Next eight days: @ VAN (Jan. 25), @ CGY (Jan. 28), @ OTT (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 68.37%
Jan. 28 at Canadiens. Maybe this isn’t for the entire team, but just for a couple of Jets in particular: Connor Hellebuyck and Kyle Connor. Though this game against the Canadiens obviously counts in the NHL standings, Hellebuyck and Connor will hit this same ice at the Bell Centre on Feb. 15 as the U.S. takes on Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off, the first best-on-best clash between these two countries since the semifinal round of the 2014 Olympics.
Next eight days: vs. UTA (Jan. 24), vs. CGY (Jan. 26), @ MTL (Jan. 28), @ BOS (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 66.67%
Jan. 26 vs. Panthers. For any team that has its sights set on a long playoff run, games against the defending Cup champs take on extra meaning. The Knights lost a 4-3 overtime contest against the Cats on Oct. 19. How will this game end up?
Next eight days: @ DAL (Jan. 24), vs. FLA (Jan. 26), vs. DAL (Jan. 28), vs. CBJ (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 65.63%
Feb. 1 vs. Maple Leafs. No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since the Canadiens in 1993, though the Oilers were just one win away in 2024. Along with the Jets, these two clubs represent the country’s best chance of breaking that streak, and the cross-continent clash will give us a preview of what a Cup Final between the two could look like.
Next eight days: vs. BUF (Jan. 25), vs. SEA (Jan. 27), vs. DET (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 64.29%
Feb. 4 at Jets. A potential Stanley Cup Final preview? This matchup might not set any viewership records, but it would be superb hockey.
Next eight days: @ NYI (Jan. 25), @ NYR (Jan. 28), vs. CHI (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 63.27%
Feb. 6 at Kraken. For years, Yanni Gourde tormented the Maple Leafs as a member of the Lightning. With the veteran center’s name being floated in trade rumors — and the Leafs always looking for ways to improve the team — could they be playing this game against a future teammate?
Next eight days: @ OTT (Jan. 25), vs. MIN (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 62.50%
Jan. 30 at Canadiens. Future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury has announced he’ll retire at the end of this season, so — barring a Stanley Cup Final matchup between these teams — this will be his last visit as a pro to his home province.
Next eight days: vs. CGY (Jan. 25), @ CHI (Jan. 26), @ TOR (Jan. 29), @ MTL (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 62.77%
Jan. 24 vs. Golden Knights; Jan. 28 at Golden Knights. The Stars have had some epic postseason showdowns with the Knights recently — and both appear playoff-bound again this season — so this pair of games will be a treat. Will the intensity match what we’ve seen in springs past?
Next eight days: vs. VGK (Jan. 24), @ STL (Jan. 25), @ VGK (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 60.20%
Feb. 8 vs. Senators. There’s a possible future world in which the Panthers and Senators face off in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs — ensuring us at least four games of Tkachuk-on-Tkachuk combat. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Any game in which Brady and Matthew face off has the potential for viral highlights.
Next eight days: @ SJ (Jan. 25), @ VGK (Jan. 26), vs. LA (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 63.33%
Feb. 7 vs. Stars. On some nights, the Kings look as if they could beat any team in the NHL; other nights, not so much. So this matchup against the perennial contender Stars will be a litmus test ahead of the 4 Nations break.
Next eight days: @ CBJ (Jan. 25), @ DET (Jan. 27), @ FLA (Jan. 29), @ TB (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 60.00%
Feb. 6 vs. Golden Knights. Because of some wonkiness with the schedule, this is the first meeting between these two playoff-bound clubs (they’ll face off again in Vegas on March 2).
Next eight days: @ MTL (Jan. 25), @ PHI (Jan. 27), vs. PHI (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 59.18%
Feb. 7 at Oilers. Once the 4 Nations Face-Off begins, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar will be teammates of Connor McDavid’s for Canada. But on this night, they’ll be battling hard for two points as the Western Conference bracket remains tight.
Next eight days: @ BOS (Jan. 25), @ NYR (Jan. 26), @ NYI (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 57.61%
Feb. 4, 6 vs. Senators. For the past few preseasons, there has been some thought that the Lightning would regress and one of the rising Atlantic teams would take their spot in the playoffs. So far, that hasn’t proven to be the case — but this back-to-back set against one of those rising teams will go a long way (one way or another).
Next eight days: @ CHI (Jan. 24), @ DET (Jan. 25), vs. CHI (Jan. 28), vs. LA (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 57.61%
Jan. 26 at Jets. Every game is important for a team like the Flames on the cusp of a wild-card berth. But, we’ll circle this one as an old-school Smythe Division rivalry renewed, featuring two elite American goaltenders: leading Vezina Trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck and Calder Trophy candidate Dustin Wolf.
Next eight days: @ MIN (Jan. 25), @ WPG (Jan. 26), vs. WSH (Jan. 28), vs. ANA (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 54.17%
Jan. 25 vs. Maple Leafs. The Battle of Ontario continues! The Sens took Round 1 this season in Toronto, and the two clubs will face off again on March 15. These games are never boring, especially with both teams in the playoff hunt.
Next eight days: vs. TOR (Jan. 25), vs. UTA (Jan. 26), vs. WSH (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 54.17%
Feb. 9 vs. Lightning. Despite modest expectations entering this season, the Canadiens remain within shouting distance of a wild-card berth. A win against their division rivals from central Florida would greatly aid in that quest.
Next eight days: vs. NJ (Jan. 25), vs. WPG (Jan. 28), vs. MIN (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 54.08%
Feb. 8 vs. Rangers. For a team on the wild-card bubble, every point matters. But games against division rivals matter more — especially if a team can hand that rival a regulation loss. This game will make a statement (one way or another) for the Blue Jackets.
Next eight days: vs. LA (Jan. 25), @ VGK (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 54.00%
Feb. 1 vs. Rangers. Have the Rangers turned a corner back to being a true contender after a midseason swoon? Perhaps. Whether the trend sticks or not, this is a pivotal game for the Bruins to use as a measuring stick (and the two teams will face off again four days later at MSG.)
Next eight days: vs. COL (Jan. 25), @ BUF (Jan. 28), vs. WPG (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 54.17%
Jan. 28 vs. Hurricanes. Although the Rangers won their second-round playoff series against the Canes last spring, Carolina has beaten them in regulation in both matchups this season. A win here would really signal that the Blueshirts have turned around their fortunes.
Next eight days: vs. COL (Jan. 26), vs. CAR (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.19%
Jan. 31 at Stars. If the various reports are true, the Canucks are seeking out the best new home for disgruntled center J.T. Miller. Well, on this night, they’ll be visiting one of those potential options, as the Stars are on the prowl for a veteran center to replace injured Tyler Seguin.
Next eight days: vs. WSH (Jan. 25), @ STL (Jan. 27), @ NSH (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 51.02%
Feb. 4 vs. Oilers. There are some who considered Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner a snub from Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster. One of the netminders who did make it? The Blues’ Jordan Binnington. Perhaps Binnington will have extra motivation in this one to show that Hockey Canada made the right call.
Next eight days: vs. DAL (Jan. 25), vs. VAN (Jan. 27)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.02%
Feb. 8 vs. Penguins. Although the Keystone State battles are a little more captivating when the Flyers and Penguins are both in line for playoff berths, the matchups are typically enthralling; to wit, their matchup on Dec. 23 ended 7-3.
Next eight days: @ NYI (Jan. 24), vs. NJ (Jan. 27), @ NJ (Jan. 29), vs. NYI (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.13%
Jan. 29 vs. Penguins. It’s a big deal any time a superstar comes to town, but Penguins games are particularly notable for UHC center Logan Cooley, who participated in Sidney Crosby‘s “Little Penguins” program as a youth player.
Next eight days: @ WPG (Jan. 24), @ OTT (Jan. 26), vs. PIT (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 51.04%
Jan. 25, Feb. 8 vs. Lightning. Given the ties between the franchises — including current Detroit GM/former Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman — games between the two are always must-see affairs. And with the Red Wings currently chasing the Lightning in the standings, these will matter even more.
Next eight days: vs. TB (Jan. 25), vs. LA (Jan. 27), @ EDM (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 48.00%
Feb. 8 at Flyers. A stretch in late January (at the Kraken, Sharks and Utah) might wield more influence on the Penguins’ playoff hopes, but a win here against the rival Flyers might mean more heading into the break.
Next eight days: @ SEA (Jan. 25), @ SJ (Jan. 27), @ UTA (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 48.91%
Jan. 24 vs. Flyers, Jan. 30 at Flyers. The Islanders’ playoff hopes remain alive, and the Flyers are one of the teams over which they’ll have to climb if they want to extend their postseason streak.
Next eight days: vs. PHI (Jan. 24), vs. CAR (Jan. 25), vs. COL (Jan. 28), @ PHI (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 45.92%
Jan. 28 vs. Ducks. Things haven’t gone as well as planned in Dan Bylsma’s first season behind the Kraken bench, and the team is closer to the bottom of the standings than the top. As a result, this matchup against another struggling Pacific Division club could have outsized impact on Seattle’s ultimate spot in the draft order.
Next eight days: vs. PIT (Jan. 25), @ EDM (Jan. 27), vs. ANA (Jan. 28), vs. SJ (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 45.74%
Feb. 1 at Penguins. A rematch of the 2017 Stanley Cup Final! But as both GMs have continually been asked by reporters about their plans for the trade deadline, perhaps this will be a preview of some players who will find themselves skating elsewhere by March 7.
Next eight days: @ ANA (Jan. 25), vs. VAN (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 42.71%
Jan. 31 vs. Predators. It’s looking more likely that the Sabres will miss the playoffs again, meaning that their rise up the draft lottery board is of no small amount of interest. Games against fellow struggling teams like the Preds will have an outsized impact.
Next eight days: @ EDM (Jan. 25), vs. BOS (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 45.83%
Feb. 8 at Kings. The Ducks are mainly looking at their spot in the draft lottery standings at this point, but their final game before the break will be against the rival Kings, a matchup that always raises the proverbial temperature.
Next eight days: vs. NSH (Jan. 25), @ SEA (Jan. 28), @ CGY (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.17%
Feb. 5 vs. Oilers. At one point, Connor McDavid was a generational star playing for a team that wasn’t winning a ton of games. Will this matchup be a look into the future for Connor Bedard?
Next eight days: vs. TB (Jan. 24), vs. MIN (Jan. 26), @ TB (Jan. 28), @ CAR (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 33.33%
Jan. 30 at Kraken. At some point, these are going to be really great matchups given the wealth of young talent on both of these rosters (and in the pipelines). For now, it’s all about the nautical theming.
Next eight days: vs. FLA (Jan. 25), vs. PIT (Jan. 28), @ SEA (Jan. 30)
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