He should be in high school! The meteoric rise of Alabama’s Ryan Williams
-
Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
ALABAMA COACH KALEN DeBoer and quarterback Jalen Milroe aren’t the only ones thrilled that receiver Ryan Williams decided to forego his senior year of high school to join the Crimson Tide this season. So are the high school football coaches who competed against Williams, the only two-time Mr. Football in Alabama history, the previous three seasons.
“Somebody texted me and said, ‘I bet you’re glad Ryan Williams reclassified,'” said Ham Barnett, head coach at St. Paul’s Episcopal School in Mobile. “I told him my defensive backs were happy for sure.”
In three seasons at Saraland High School, just 10 miles north of Mobile, Williams had more than 4,400 yards of total offense and scored 76 touchdowns in 39 games — 47 receiving, 24 rushing, 1 passing and 4 on punt and kick returns.
Williams’ meteoric rise as a Crimson Tide freshman has been one of the top stories in the first half of the 2024 season.
Going into Saturday’s contest at No. 11 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET/ABC, ESPN+), Williams leads No. 7 Alabama with 23 catches for 576 yards with six touchdowns. His 25-yard average on receptions leads the FBS.
Those who watched him compete in youth leagues and high school aren’t that surprised by his instant impact.
“He would make plays that were not there, when you think you’ve got everything covered,” Barnett said. “He’d just make people miss. He was just a problem — a matchup nightmare for everybody. The things I see on Saturday are exactly what he was doing on Friday nights.”
Williams’ biggest moment so far came on Sept. 28 when he beat two Georgia defenders to haul in a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 left in Alabama’s 41-34 victory at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa.
It was the type of explosive play Williams had made so many times before.
“Every game, he did something that left you just kind of scratching your head or laughing,” Saraland High coach Jeff Kelly said. “It was something all the time.”
BY NOW, YOU’VE probably heard more than once that Williams is only 17 years old. He turns 18 on Feb. 9.
“He’s an old soul,” said Tiffany Coleman, Williams’ mother. “People are like, ‘He’s so mature to be 17.’ His grandparents had a lot to do with that. His maturity and foundation came from them.”
Coleman was 18 years old when Williams was born. Williams’ father, Ryan Williams, was 17. A few months after the younger Williams came into the world, his father left for college. An all-state receiver at B.C. Rain High in Mobile, the elder Williams signed with Auburn as a cornerback in February 2007. He spent two seasons with the Tigers before transferring to Copiah-Lincoln Community College in Mississippi in 2009.
Williams’ father finished his college career at Louisiana Tech — a knee injury limited him to only two games as a senior in 2011.
While his father was at college, Williams lived with his paternal grandparents, Robert and Catherine Williams. His grandfather was retired, so he cooked breakfast for his grandson each morning and made sure his clothes were ironed for school. They were inseparable.
“He was always with his grandfather,” Coleman said. “He would take him to practice. He would take him to school. He was Robert’s shotgun buddy, you know?”
Robert Williams also helped introduce his grandson to football. They watched Auburn and Alabama games on TV together, as well as Michigan and Ohio State replays on the newly launched Big Ten Network. When Williams accompanied his grandfather to the neighborhood barbershop, the other patrons were surprised by the child’s vast knowledge of the game.
“With Ryan knowing that his dad played football, he was already all-in,” Coleman said. “He used to watch his dad do workouts when he came home. I’m not going to say he was destined to play football, but he already loved the game because that’s all he was around.”
Once Williams’ father returned home from Louisiana Tech, he nurtured his son’s interest in football. Williams was in the backyard on many mornings going through drills that his father learned at college — sprints, cones, proper angles and pass routes.
“When I came home from school, football was still fresh,” Williams’ father said. “He was just happy to be spending time with me, and we went in the backyard and did the same things we were doing in college. I broke it down to his level and it accelerated as we both got older.”
AS A 5-YEAR-OLD, Williams wanted to play running back. His first youth league coach put him at quarterback.
“He was a playmaker,” Coleman said. “When he was a quarterback, if he couldn’t find anybody open, he was like Cam Newton out there. He’s taking off and he’s going to score.”
Playing for the Spartans in the Saraland Youth Football League, Williams scored five touchdowns in a win over the Municipal Park Giants. His father’s best friend, Luther Page, dubbed his godson “Hollywood” after the game. The moniker has stayed with him throughout his career. “Every Saturday, we knew Hollywood was going to put on a show,” Coleman said. Soon, Hollywood was celebrating touchdowns with the latest dances he’d seen on the internet such as the Nae Nae or Woah.
Robert Williams didn’t like his grandson showboating, however, and told him, “Hey, man, act like you’ve been there before. Don’t get down there and celebrate. Just hand the ball to the referee and go about your business.”
The celebrations continued.
“If you’re Hollywood, you’ve got to be Hollywood,” Coleman said.
In the fifth grade, Williams joined the Eight Mile Giants of the Mobile Youth Football Conference. The Giants already had a quarterback, so he played receiver for the first time. Hollywood didn’t slow down at a new position on a new team.
“You’d see him working out with his dad before games, and you could just tell that the kid was different because of his work ethic,” said Jermaine Rogers, an assistant coach with the Giants. “His talent was out of this world, but his work ethic was out of this universe.”
The Giants came up with another name for their team, “First 48 Boyz,” because Rogers, a homicide detective for the Mobile Police Department, appeared in the reality TV show, “The First 48.” Williams’ teammates included Saraland High defensive tackle Antonio Coleman, who is committed to Auburn, and Williamson High offensive tackle Carde Smith, who is headed to USC.
Williams was a superstar for the Giants, even proclaiming in a video taken at the time, “My name is Hollywood Williams, and I’m the No. 1 receiver in the nation.”
The short clip would prove to be prophetic.
AFTER PLAYING QUARTERBACK for three seasons in middle school, Williams was poised to run the offense for the ninth-grade team at Saraland High in 2021. He was working with the varsity squad during preseason camp and stayed after practice one day to throw with receiver Jarel Williams, who is now a sophomore at West Virginia.
Just a week before the season opener, the Spartans were still looking for a third receiver, and assistant coach Brett Boutwell noticed Williams running routes and catching passes out the office window.
“Coach Boutwell looked out there and said, ‘Hey, we need to give Ryan a shot,'” Kelly said. “He had a natural something special to him. He was 14 years old and playing against 17- and 18-year-olds. By the second half of the season and the playoffs, he was making some big plays.
“If they didn’t stay after practice that day and get those extra reps, he might have been a ninth-grade quarterback that year. I don’t know. We kind of stumbled into it.”
The summer before Williams’ sophomore season, Kelly told anyone who would listen: “Ryan is going to take over the state and nobody knows who he is.”
In Saraland High’s season opener in 2022, Williams scored his team’s first four touchdowns on a 75-yard punt return and three catches. He had 12 receptions for 138 yards in a 42-23 win against Daphne High.
Two weeks later, on the Spartans’ first offensive play against St. Paul’s Episcopal, an official sent quarterback K.J. Lacey back to the sideline because he wasn’t wearing proper knee pads. Williams lined up at receiver, motioned to quarterback and scored a 71-yard touchdown on a sweep.
“We pinched everybody and they decided to run stretch,” Barnett said. “He made two guys miss and outran them. We had a Division I safety [Chris Bracy] on that team too. He’s a starter at UAB now, and he outran him and beat him to the edge.”
Lacey, who is committed to Texas, returned to the field on Saraland High’s next possession. Williams ran for 103 yards with three touchdowns and caught another score in a 42-14 victory.
THROUGH SIX GAMES as a sophomore, Williams scored 18 times in 50 touches on offense. He committed to play for Alabama coach Nick Saban after scoring twice in a 48-7 rout of Baldwin County on Oct. 7, 2022.
Two weeks later, Saraland High, ranked No. 1 in Class 6A, suffered its first defeat, losing 27-26 at Theodore High on a 25-yard field goal with 1:19 left. Williams scored on a 76-yard punt return and a 13-yard reception.
His best work was still to come.
In the second round of the state playoffs, Williams scored a 68-yard touchdown on a go route on the first play from scrimmage against Hillcrest High in Tuscaloosa.
“Right out of the gate,” Hillcrest High coach Jamie Mitchell said. “He let us know real quick what was coming.”
Against the unbeaten Patriots, who had one of the best defenses in the state, Williams had eight catches for 240 yards with three touchdowns. He ran for two scores and threw another one in a 56-31 rout. “I’ve coached for 34 years and it’s hard for me to remember a player that had a bigger impact on a game than him,” Mitchell said. “He just single-handedly dismantled us, and we had a really good football team. He made it look really easy against us.”
Mitchell’s teams won state championships in two states. He coached Philadelphia Eagles receiver A.J. Brown at Starkville High in Mississippi.
“Sometimes, it’s hard to get those guys the ball, even as good as they are,” Mitchell said. “[Williams] just had a knack for finding space and creating huge, explosive plays. When you look at him, there’s nothing in his appearance that’s going to strike fear in you. He’s not a big kid.
“But once the ball is snapped, his twitch and his ability to create room and space for himself are unreal. He has an innate ability to get to 10th gear in just a blink of an eye.”
In a 57-56 win in overtime against Homewood High in the state quarterfinals, Williams ran 10 times for 159 yards with two touchdowns and caught 10 passes for 160 with one score. The Spartans needed every bit of his production after nearly squandering a 27-0 lead.
Saraland High avenged its only loss of the season with a 21-6 win over Theodore High in the semifinals to reach the state championship game.
At Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium, Williams scored four touchdowns and had 291 all-purpose yards in a 38-17 win over Mountain Brook to give Saraland its first state title. Williams’ 58-yard touchdown run on a fourth-and-1 play helped seal it. He was named MVP of the championship game.
As a sophomore, Williams had 1,641 receiving yards with 24 touchdowns and 700 rushing yards with 15 scores. He threw for a touchdown and ran back two punts for scores. He became the first sophomore to win the state’s Mr. Football honor.
“It was a highlight reel all year,” Kelly said. “He had big moments and dynamite moments and just played at a different speed and level. I don’t want to take it for granted, but it was kind of commonplace. The things that would stand out to everybody else watching him for the first time was just kind of another Friday night in Saraland.”
0:57
Ryan Williams elevates for unreal Alabama TD
Jalen Milroe throws it up the sideline to Ryan Williams, who comes down with ball, stays inbounds, then scores a touchdown for Alabama.
IN MID-JULY 2023, Williams broke the news to Kelly that he was reclassifying to the Class of 2024 and his junior season would be his final one at Saraland High. Williams didn’t publicly announce his decision until Dec. 23.
“I think it speaks volumes about who he is,” Kelly said. “He didn’t want it to be out there because he didn’t want to be a distraction for his teammates. We had a team that had a chance to win another state title. He and his family did a tremendous job keeping that decision private.”
Saraland High’s opener against Lipscomb Academy in Nashville was broadcast by ESPN. Williams was covered by Tennessee commitment Kaleb Beasley throughout the game. He scored on a 50-yard catch and run in the third quarter, then put the Spartans ahead 31-24 when he ran into the end zone on the first play of overtime. Lipscomb answered with a touchdown but missed the extra point in Saraland’s 31-30 victory.
Along with Williams’ big-play ability and Lacey’s arm, Saraland relied on its dominant defense in going 10-0 in the regular season. After the nail-biter against Lipscomb Academy, the Spartans outscored their next nine opponents, 513-103. They scored on all 10 possessions in a 70-20 rout of Foley High, then Lacey threw seven touchdowns — three to Williams — in a 59-20 win against Blount High.
Saraland had a 35-0 lead at the half against Theodore High, the only team to beat them in 2022, before winning 42-13.
After cruising through its first four playoff games to run the state’s longest winning streak to 20 games, the Spartans faced Clay-Chalkville High with a chance to win back-to-back Class 6A state titles. The game was played at Alabama’s Bryant-Denny Stadium, and Williams provided Crimson Tide fans with a preview of what was to come.
Williams had 343 all-purpose yards and scored all four of Saraland’s touchdowns in a 31-28 loss. Clay-Chalkville’s defense stopped Lacey at its 1-yard line on the final play of the game. Williams hauled in 11 passes for 232 yards with two scores, ran for 27 yards with one score and returned the opening kickoff of the second half 86 yards for another touchdown.
It was a fitting ending for a player who would become the state’s first two-time winner of the Mr. Football award, and it wouldn’t be the last time he would star at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Barnett, who describes himself as an Alabama football fan, is happy Williams is now competing for the Crimson Tide — and not against his team.
Barnett called Williams the best high school skill player the talent-rich Mobile area has produced. That includes former NFL players Julio Jones, T.J. Yeldon, Pat White and others.
“He’s something different with his wiggle,” Barnett said. “He can change direction and feel where defenders are, even in the air, and land and make a move like I’ve never seen before.
“We knew he was more elite than all the high school players he was going against. He gets to the [college] level, and you think it might even out a little bit, especially at his age. Watching him doing the same things he was doing against high school kids, at 17, really amazes me.”
-
Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike