Why these Yankees finally broke through the ALCS curse
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
CLEVELAND — Here’s the resume of one era for a certain big league baseball team.
It’s a 14-year period. The team had a .566 winning percentage during that span, most in its league and second-most overall. It never finished below .500. It had the second-most wins at home and on the road. No team had more comeback wins. Only one team scored more runs, and only one had a better run differential. Nobody hit more home runs, and it wasn’t particularly close.
Of course, that’s all regular season stuff — what about the playoffs? The answers aren’t as glowing, but they are still impressive. Only three teams played more postseason games. Only five won more postseason games. Only two teams hit more homers.
These are all facts from the New York Yankees‘ pennant drought, the period from 2010 through 2023, which finally drew to a close on Saturday night. The drought — a descriptor some woebegone franchises would dispute — ended thanks to one mighty swing by Juan Soto that punctuated one of his signature meat grinder at-bats. The Yankees are back, returned to the pedestal where their fans have a historical justification for feeling they belong: On top of the American League.
“It’s been a conversation every year,” ALCS MVP Giancarlo Stanton said. “We’re here now.”
The level of success outlined above would be impressive for pretty much every franchise, even if no fan base is ever going to be completely satisfied without the payoff of pennants and World Series titles. But for denizens of the Bronx, flags are the only currency that may be redeemed for respect or validation. Such are the standards of a franchise and fan base that has now celebrated 41 pennants and is four wins from a 28th championship.
Saturday’s win over Cleveland ended a streak of five losses in the ALCS during the drought, the last two of which came during the seven-year tenure of current manager Aaron Boone. The other three came under Joe Girardi, who is the only other skipper New York has had during the drought.
Meanwhile, the guy running the front office, Brian Cashman, has been around so long he might have been the guy who traded for Babe Ruth, though we’d need to check the historical record to see if that’s the case.
“I’m proud of these guys,” Cashman said amid the melee of the postgame trophy presentation. “And proud we have earned the right to go to the World Series.”
Behind Boone, and Girardi before him, and the even-present Cashman, not to mention ownership by the same family dating back to 1973, the Yankees, even during one of their dark ages, have been remarkably stable. It’s not like there was a major top-to-bottom housecleaning somewhere along the line.
What, then, is different about this bunch, the 2024 Bronx Bombers, that after so many recent October disappointments allowed them to finally break through on Saturday?
The Soto-Judge stack
Through the regular season, Aaron Judge enjoyed one of the best offensive performances in baseball history but, incredible as it is to say, he’s done this before. He’s also struggled all October to much hand-wringing and widespread theorizing. Yet, you could argue that even as he’s slumped, Judge has remained a fearsome presence in the New York lineup, and he’s been able to do that because he’s got Soto hitting in front of him.
The most tangible way to illustrate this is to simply point out that Judge hit 353 times with at least runner on base this season, second-most in baseball behind Atlanta’s Matt Olson. Judge drove in a career-high 144 runs this season — a product of his level of play, yes, but also because he was always hitting with someone on base. Often it was Soto, who chewed the opposing pitcher the same way he did Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis on Saturday.
“I’m just telling myself, ‘I’m all over every pitch, I’m all over every pitch’,” Soto said of his pennant-winning blast. “So be ready. Be ready. He’s gonna make the mistake. He did. And I did get it.”
Soto took the spoils on Saturday but often, he’s just taking a walk — 129 of them during the season — to set the table for Judge and those behind him. Judge had an astronomical 1.237 OPS this season when hitting with at least one runner on.
The Soto-Judge stack, by some measures the most productive one-two single-season duo since the days of Ruth and Lou Gehrig, is a wearying prospect for every pitching staff to navigate four or five times a game, even if one of them (Judge in this case) isn’t hitting that well.
“He wears pitchers down,” Stanton said of Soto. “It doesn’t matter if he gets out. The stress of getting him out, then you gotta deal with Judge … then you gotta deal with everyone behind them.”
The runs created metric had Judge at 183, Soto at 147. The Yankees haven’t had two hitters top 140 in the same season since Jeter and Williams back in 1999. That is the single biggest difference between the Yankee teams of the past 14 seasons and this one. In other recent years they’ve had one mega hitter — but not two.
Stanton, for one, knew what the effect would be as soon as he heard that Soto was going to be his new teammate.
“I figured he was going to do something like he did tonight,” Stanton said. “And in pure Juan Soto fashion.”
The Stanton-Torres wrapwound
Stanton has had his ups and downs since coming to the Yankees but he’s often been at his best in October — and this October might be his best one yet. His four homers against Cleveland landed him that MVP award. He’s got five overall in the 2024 playoffs, one shy of the Yankees’ record. And only three Yankees have hit more playoff homers for the franchise — Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter and, gulp, Mickey Mantle.
“There’s the physical nature of what he does that’s different than just about everyone in the world,” Boone said Sunday before Stanton went out and homered yet again. “He’s just incredibly disciplined — his approach, his process, how he studies guys.”
Stanton doesn’t always hit cleanup, as Boone likes to get a lefty bat between Judge and Stanton most times. But this, too, ties into the Soto-Judge stack because when Stanton is hitting, and batting cleanup like he was on Saturday, those worn-down pitchers have got to feel the life being sucked out of them.
This also puts extra onus on getting out the batter who precedes all of this, Gleyber Torres. That hasn’t happened consistently this October. In fact, Torres has reached base in his first at-bat eight times during this postseason, a Yankees record. All of a sudden, there’s a runner on base, and here comes the smiling, nodding Soto striding to the dish.
“A lot of times for starting pitchers, maybe it takes them a hit or two to settle in,” Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said. “And those are two guys you can’t settle in against.”
The Yankees didn’t light up the scoreboard getting through the AL bracket, but no one did. Runs were just very tough to come by in general. New York averaged 4.78 runs per game to lead the six AL postseason entrants, a group that otherwise averaged just 2.93. Through that prism, the Yankees’ offense was dominant — even without Judge putting up big numbers.
The scary question for whoever comes next for the Yankees — whether it’s the New York Mets or the Los Angeles Dodgers: What happens if Judge starts hitting, too?
The Astros are out
We won’t expand on this because there’s not much to say beyond pointing it out. But the Yankees’ last three ALCS losses — 2017, 2019, 2022 — all came at the hand of the Houston Astros, who were knocked out in the wild-card round this season by Detroit. New York might have beaten Houston this time around, anyway, and it’s fair to wonder if the ship has sailed on the Astros dynasty. But the fact remains — the biggest impediment to the World Series for the Yankees in recent years was not around this time to get in their way.
Patience
The tension is thicker in October. The moments are more intense, the crowds larger and lower, the consequences of every win or loss exaggerated. You might think that from a hitter’s perspective, that might lead to a little over-aggression. Not these Yankees.
New York drew just one walk during their clincher in Cleveland but have walked in 13.9% of their plate appearances this October. That’s more than any other playoff team this season and more than all but five of the 512 playoff teams in baseball history.
Plate discipline has been a hallmark of Cashman-constructed teams, and the Yankees also led the majors in drawing walks during the season. In October, they’ve taken it to another level.
“They’re a very tough lineup to navigate because of that,” Vogt said. “You have to come into the zone and you have to get them out in the zone, and they’re all very good hitters.”
An infusion of youth
The Yankees, at their most decadent, have featured too many high-dollar players on the wrong side of 30 with big names and shrinking athleticism. This has been the case for decades. But the Yankees’ position group has been getting younger the last couple of years, from a playing time-weighted age of 30.3 in 2022, per baseball-reference.com, to 28.5 last season and 28.0 this season.
Necessity has been part of this due to injuries to older stars such as Anthony Rizzo and D.J. LeMahieu. But New York has gotten meaningful contributions from young players on the hitting and pitching side alike. Game 4 featured an all-rookie battery — righty Luis Gil and catcher Austin Wells, both leading AL Rookie of the Year candidates.
The shortstop, Anthony Volpe, just completed his second season and was nominated for what would be his second straight Gold Glove. He’s improved his consistency at the plate as well, though he has plenty of work to do in that regard. He has a .459 OBP during the postseason.
The Yankees are still a star-driven team but they have better balance in the clubhouse. Going back through the history of baseball’s most successful franchise, that’s usually been the case when they win big.
“We’ve had some great groups, some great camaraderie, some great clubhouses,” Boone said. “This group is as close as I’ve ever seen, and they trust each other. They lean on each other. They love each other. They play for each other. Those are special things to have in a team sport.”
This team has won big so far but the ultimate goal hasn’t yet been achieved. And that goal — in the Bronx — is really one that matters, the one that will truly quench this drought.
“To get there doesn’t mean much,” Stanton said. “We need to win it.”
Sports
Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Senators on the brink, while Avs, Knights, Bolts try to punch back
All but one NHL team will end the season on a bitter note, as there can be only one Stanley Cup champion. But on Saturday, we could have our very first playoff elimination of the 2025 playoffs.
The Ottawa Senators are on the brink heading into Saturday’s game. Despite taking the heavily favored Toronto Maple Leafs to overtime twice in a row, the Atlantic Division champs have scored the game winner each time in the extra session. Can the Senators win one in front of the home crowd to extend the series to five games?
Elsewhere in the Atlantic bracket, the Florida Panthers won both of the first two games in the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s building. Will this be a shorter series than many expected? And out West, the Minnesota Wild will look to extend their shocking series lead over the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Clash of the Western Titans continues in the Centennial State, as the Colorado Avalanche look to even things up with the Dallas Stars.
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Friday’s games, and the Three Stars of Friday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Game 3 (FLA leads 2-0) | 1 p.m. ET | TBS
Having served his suspension for performance-enhancing substances, Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad is eligible to return for this game. The well-rounded blueliner skated 23:30 per game during the regular season, scoring three goals and 30 assists in 56 games.
The Panthers have another defenseman who has been delivering this postseason; Nate Schmidt scored a goal in Games 1 and 2, becoming the first defenseman in franchise history with two game-winning goals in a single postseason — and they’re only two games in!
All eyes will be on the status of Aleksander Barkov, who was knocked out of Game 2 via a hit from Brandon Hagel; Hagel was assessed a five-minute major penalty for the play and suspended for Game 3.
Tampa Bay needs its stars and its scoring depth to get rolling to charge back into this series, with just two goals total in two games. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been up to his typical, superhuman standards thus far, allowing seven goals on 39 shots (.821 save percentage).
In Stanley Cup playoff history, teams that start 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time; that number rises to 98% if a team starts 3-0.
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild
Game 4 (MIN leads 2-1) | 4 p.m. ET | TBS
If nothing else, this series has been a unique one from a starting-time perspective; each of the first four games will have had a different scheduled start time once the puck is dropped Saturday — 10 p.m. ET for Game 1, 11 p.m. ET for Game 2, 9 p.m. ET for Game 3 and 4 p.m. ET for this one.
Most observers didn’t believe the Wild were going to win this series. Nor did many predict that Minnesota players would be all over the scoring leaderboard midway through Round 1. Kirill Kaprizov is tied for the playoff scoring lead with Adrian Kempe and Cam Fowler (seven points), and is tied with teammate Matt Boldy for the goal-scoring lead, with four. The current playoff assists leader? Wild blueliner Jared Spurgeon.
This has been an uncharacteristically rough opening round for Adin Hill. He’s allowed 10 goals on 57 shots, generating a .825 save percentage and 3.78 goals-against average. Those rates were .932 and 2.17, respectively, in Hill’s 16 games played during the Knights’ 2023 Stanley Cup run.
While “Playoff” Tomas Hertl has shown up this series — to the tune of two goals and an assist — some of the Knights’ other offensive standbys have been quiet. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev — who combined for 212 points in the regular season — all have a goose egg thus far.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Game 4 (TOR leads 3-0) | 7 p.m. ET | TBS
The Maple Leafs have been led by a consistently strong performance of their Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares; the quartet leads Toronto in scoring through three games. Perhaps a narrative is being rewritten before our eyes, after years of playoff disappointment for that group?
One specific area where Toronto has been dominant is the power play; their 55.6% conversion rate is tops in the league this postseason (and makes up, somewhat, for a penalty kill that is just 77.8% effective).
The Senators have had five different goal scorers this series, including Brady Tkachuk, who has been giving his all in his first playoff experience. Ottawa’s captain has two goals — and four penalty minutes, as he has kept himself in the mix whenever the action has gotten rowdier.
Will Ottawa stick with Linus Ullmark in goal for Game 4? The veteran has an .815 save percentage through the first three games — and an .874 mark in his postseason career.
Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche
Game 4 (DAL leads 2-1) | 9:30 p.m. ET | TBS
Game 3 was all about the return of Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog after an absence of 1,032 days. Landeskog skated 13:16 in the game, but did not record a point or a shot on goal.
While other teams are generating historic numbers on the power play this postseason, the Avs have struggled to a 15.4% conversion rate (fourth worst). This is in stark contrast to the regular season, when the Avs’ 24.8% rate was eighth in the league.
Tyler Seguin‘s overtime goal sealed the deal for Dallas in Game 3. it was just the second OT game winner in his career, after a span of 13 years (April 22, 2012).
The other good news on the Dallas front is that Mikko Rantanen — former Av, who was acquired on March 7 — finally picked up his first point of the series, an assist on the OT game winner. Have the floodgates opened?
Arda’s three stars from Friday night
1. The Oilers-Kings series
LA up 2-1 | 30 goals in three games
The first three games have been bonkers. Game 1 almost had an all-timer comeback, then the Kings rocked Edmonton in Game 2, while Game 3 saw multiple lead changes, quick back-to-back goals, a failed coaches challenge by L.A. on an Edmonton goal — which led to an Oilers’ power-play goal to take the lead. Just incredible.
Nemec scored the overtime winner in Newark to win the game for the Devils over the Canes — and avoid going down 0-3 in the series. This came after stints in the AHL this season, and being a healthy scratch earlier in the series.
“Goal” Caufield had a goal and an assist in Montreal’s emphatic 6-3 win over Washington in Game 3.
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Cole Caufield scores with a one-timer for Montreal
Cole Caufield scores on a one-timer to give the Canadiens the lead late in the second period.
Friday’s scores
Montreal Canadiens 6, Washington Capitals 3
WSH leads 2-1
The Bell Centre was electric for the Canadiens’ first home game in quite some time — and the fans were sent home quite happy on Friday night after a wild game. The two teams traded goals through most of the first two periods before Cole Caufield put Montreal up one at the end of the second — and a brawl ensued that spilled into the Washington bench. Although Alex Ovechkin scored 2:39 into the third to tie the game 3-3, the Habs poured it on thereafter with three straight goals, sending the “Olé!” chants to unforeseen decibel levels. Recap.
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Christian Dvorak helps Canadiens regain the lead
Christian Dvorak finds the net in the third period to help the Canadiens to retake the lead vs. the Capitals.
New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (2OT)
CAR leads 2-1
Down 0-2 in the series, the Devils went up 2-0 in their first game back home, on goals from Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer. But a pair of third-period, power-play goals — from Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho — knotted things up, and the game went to overtime. Scoreless after one extra period, the game was ended by Simon Nemec, the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, who had been a healthy scratch previously in the series. Recap.
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Simon Nemec’s wrister wins it in 2OT for the Devils
Simon Nemec finds the winning goal as the Devils outlast the Hurricanes in double overtime.
Edmonton Oilers 7, Los Angeles Kings 4
LA leads 2-1
It takes a full-team effort to get up off the proverbial canvas when down 0-2 in a series, and that’s just what the Oilers got on Friday. Ten different Oilers hit the scoresheet in this one, including superstars like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, as well players further down the lineup like Connor Brown and Evander Kane. The Oilers also made the switch in goal to Calvin Pickard for this game, and he responded with 24 saves on 28 shots. On the Kings’ side, Adrian Kempe had his fourth goal and fifth assist of the playoffs, putting him into first in the points race and tied for first in the goals race. Recap.
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Connor McDavid’s empty-netter secures Game 3 for the Oilers
Connor McDavid notches the empty-netter to secure a Game 3 win for the Oilers.
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Greg Wyshynski
NEWARK, N.J. — Simon Nemec hasn’t had an ideal start to his NHL career. But in Game 3 of the New Jersey Devils‘ Stanley Cup playoff series against the Carolina Hurricanes, he finally had his career highlight.
The 21-year-old defenseman scored an unassisted goal at 2:36 of double overtime on Friday night to give the Devils a 3-2 win and new life, cutting the Hurricanes’ series lead to 2-1.
In the process, Nemec, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 NHL draft, had the most impactful moment of his pro career with his first playoff goal.
“I was so happy,” he said. “Amazing feeling. It’s been a tough season for me, and that’s a really big win for us.”
A native of Slovakia, Nemec spent his first season after the draft in the American Hockey League. He split time between the AHL and the Devils in Year 2, thrust into action because of injuries to the New Jersey defense. He split time between the NHL and the minors again this season. Nemec has played 87 games in the NHL, with five goals and 18 assists while skating to a minus-17.
He was a frequent healthy scratch in New Jersey, including Game 1 on Sunday, and his lackluster play caused many to wonder if Nemec would live up to his lofty draft position. Nemec was last on the Devils in goals above replacement at minus-8.7, according to Evolving Hockey.
Thanks to injuries to defensemen Luke Hughes and Brenden Dillon, Nemec was called upon in Game 2 against Carolina and was back in the lineup for Game 3, in which the Devils lost defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic to injury after just 10 shifts. That injury, plus the multiple overtimes, meant massive increases in ice time for veterans such as Brian Dumoulin (36:29) and Brett Pesce (32:25), as well as more responsibility for Nemec.
“You just need guys to step up at the right times,” Dumoulin said. “He knew he was going to be going out there, we’re going to be relying on him, and we needed him. You could see that he took that moment. He wasn’t scared of it, and he took the reins of it.”
Nemec said the overtime goal, which beat Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen (34 saves), was the kind of boost he needs in his career.
“Yeah, it helps me a lot,” he said. “I feel like my confidence is back the last couple games. I’m just trying to play my game and do this stuff. I have to play offense a little bit, too, so my confidence is higher, and I just feel good about myself.”
Devils coach Sheldon Keefe admitted that he dreamed about defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler, who returned to the lineup for the first time since Feb. 4 and played 27:09, being the Game 3 hero.
“But if I was really thinking, I would have said, ‘Wouldn’t this be something if the young guy who just stepped up so big for us here, if he ended the game?'” Keefe said.
The message the coach gave his team in the overtime intermissions was one of aggressiveness. That apparently wasn’t lost on Nemec.
“We’ve got to go win this hockey game. We don’t want to sit back, we don’t want this game to go on forever,” Keefe said. “Credit Nemo with doing that. To have the mindset to do it, not just sitting back and conserving energy. He was on the front foot. You love to see it and love to see him get rewarded.”
Game 4 of the series will be Sunday afternoon in New Jersey.
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