Why these Yankees finally broke through the ALCS curse
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
CLEVELAND — Here’s the resume of one era for a certain big league baseball team.
It’s a 14-year period. The team had a .566 winning percentage during that span, most in its league and second-most overall. It never finished below .500. It had the second-most wins at home and on the road. No team had more comeback wins. Only one team scored more runs, and only one had a better run differential. Nobody hit more home runs, and it wasn’t particularly close.
Of course, that’s all regular season stuff — what about the playoffs? The answers aren’t as glowing, but they are still impressive. Only three teams played more postseason games. Only five won more postseason games. Only two teams hit more homers.
These are all facts from the New York Yankees‘ pennant drought, the period from 2010 through 2023, which finally drew to a close on Saturday night. The drought — a descriptor some woebegone franchises would dispute — ended thanks to one mighty swing by Juan Soto that punctuated one of his signature meat grinder at-bats. The Yankees are back, returned to the pedestal where their fans have a historical justification for feeling they belong: On top of the American League.
“It’s been a conversation every year,” ALCS MVP Giancarlo Stanton said. “We’re here now.”
The level of success outlined above would be impressive for pretty much every franchise, even if no fan base is ever going to be completely satisfied without the payoff of pennants and World Series titles. But for denizens of the Bronx, flags are the only currency that may be redeemed for respect or validation. Such are the standards of a franchise and fan base that has now celebrated 41 pennants and is four wins from a 28th championship.
Saturday’s win over Cleveland ended a streak of five losses in the ALCS during the drought, the last two of which came during the seven-year tenure of current manager Aaron Boone. The other three came under Joe Girardi, who is the only other skipper New York has had during the drought.
Meanwhile, the guy running the front office, Brian Cashman, has been around so long he might have been the guy who traded for Babe Ruth, though we’d need to check the historical record to see if that’s the case.
“I’m proud of these guys,” Cashman said amid the melee of the postgame trophy presentation. “And proud we have earned the right to go to the World Series.”
Behind Boone, and Girardi before him, and the even-present Cashman, not to mention ownership by the same family dating back to 1973, the Yankees, even during one of their dark ages, have been remarkably stable. It’s not like there was a major top-to-bottom housecleaning somewhere along the line.
What, then, is different about this bunch, the 2024 Bronx Bombers, that after so many recent October disappointments allowed them to finally break through on Saturday?
The Soto-Judge stack
Through the regular season, Aaron Judge enjoyed one of the best offensive performances in baseball history but, incredible as it is to say, he’s done this before. He’s also struggled all October to much hand-wringing and widespread theorizing. Yet, you could argue that even as he’s slumped, Judge has remained a fearsome presence in the New York lineup, and he’s been able to do that because he’s got Soto hitting in front of him.
The most tangible way to illustrate this is to simply point out that Judge hit 353 times with at least runner on base this season, second-most in baseball behind Atlanta’s Matt Olson. Judge drove in a career-high 144 runs this season — a product of his level of play, yes, but also because he was always hitting with someone on base. Often it was Soto, who chewed the opposing pitcher the same way he did Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis on Saturday.
“I’m just telling myself, ‘I’m all over every pitch, I’m all over every pitch’,” Soto said of his pennant-winning blast. “So be ready. Be ready. He’s gonna make the mistake. He did. And I did get it.”
Soto took the spoils on Saturday but often, he’s just taking a walk — 129 of them during the season — to set the table for Judge and those behind him. Judge had an astronomical 1.237 OPS this season when hitting with at least one runner on.
The Soto-Judge stack, by some measures the most productive one-two single-season duo since the days of Ruth and Lou Gehrig, is a wearying prospect for every pitching staff to navigate four or five times a game, even if one of them (Judge in this case) isn’t hitting that well.
“He wears pitchers down,” Stanton said of Soto. “It doesn’t matter if he gets out. The stress of getting him out, then you gotta deal with Judge … then you gotta deal with everyone behind them.”
The runs created metric had Judge at 183, Soto at 147. The Yankees haven’t had two hitters top 140 in the same season since Jeter and Williams back in 1999. That is the single biggest difference between the Yankee teams of the past 14 seasons and this one. In other recent years they’ve had one mega hitter — but not two.
Stanton, for one, knew what the effect would be as soon as he heard that Soto was going to be his new teammate.
“I figured he was going to do something like he did tonight,” Stanton said. “And in pure Juan Soto fashion.”
The Stanton-Torres wrapwound
Stanton has had his ups and downs since coming to the Yankees but he’s often been at his best in October — and this October might be his best one yet. His four homers against Cleveland landed him that MVP award. He’s got five overall in the 2024 playoffs, one shy of the Yankees’ record. And only three Yankees have hit more playoff homers for the franchise — Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter and, gulp, Mickey Mantle.
“There’s the physical nature of what he does that’s different than just about everyone in the world,” Boone said Sunday before Stanton went out and homered yet again. “He’s just incredibly disciplined — his approach, his process, how he studies guys.”
Stanton doesn’t always hit cleanup, as Boone likes to get a lefty bat between Judge and Stanton most times. But this, too, ties into the Soto-Judge stack because when Stanton is hitting, and batting cleanup like he was on Saturday, those worn-down pitchers have got to feel the life being sucked out of them.
This also puts extra onus on getting out the batter who precedes all of this, Gleyber Torres. That hasn’t happened consistently this October. In fact, Torres has reached base in his first at-bat eight times during this postseason, a Yankees record. All of a sudden, there’s a runner on base, and here comes the smiling, nodding Soto striding to the dish.
“A lot of times for starting pitchers, maybe it takes them a hit or two to settle in,” Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said. “And those are two guys you can’t settle in against.”
The Yankees didn’t light up the scoreboard getting through the AL bracket, but no one did. Runs were just very tough to come by in general. New York averaged 4.78 runs per game to lead the six AL postseason entrants, a group that otherwise averaged just 2.93. Through that prism, the Yankees’ offense was dominant — even without Judge putting up big numbers.
The scary question for whoever comes next for the Yankees — whether it’s the New York Mets or the Los Angeles Dodgers: What happens if Judge starts hitting, too?
The Astros are out
We won’t expand on this because there’s not much to say beyond pointing it out. But the Yankees’ last three ALCS losses — 2017, 2019, 2022 — all came at the hand of the Houston Astros, who were knocked out in the wild-card round this season by Detroit. New York might have beaten Houston this time around, anyway, and it’s fair to wonder if the ship has sailed on the Astros dynasty. But the fact remains — the biggest impediment to the World Series for the Yankees in recent years was not around this time to get in their way.
Patience
The tension is thicker in October. The moments are more intense, the crowds larger and lower, the consequences of every win or loss exaggerated. You might think that from a hitter’s perspective, that might lead to a little over-aggression. Not these Yankees.
New York drew just one walk during their clincher in Cleveland but have walked in 13.9% of their plate appearances this October. That’s more than any other playoff team this season and more than all but five of the 512 playoff teams in baseball history.
Plate discipline has been a hallmark of Cashman-constructed teams, and the Yankees also led the majors in drawing walks during the season. In October, they’ve taken it to another level.
“They’re a very tough lineup to navigate because of that,” Vogt said. “You have to come into the zone and you have to get them out in the zone, and they’re all very good hitters.”
An infusion of youth
The Yankees, at their most decadent, have featured too many high-dollar players on the wrong side of 30 with big names and shrinking athleticism. This has been the case for decades. But the Yankees’ position group has been getting younger the last couple of years, from a playing time-weighted age of 30.3 in 2022, per baseball-reference.com, to 28.5 last season and 28.0 this season.
Necessity has been part of this due to injuries to older stars such as Anthony Rizzo and D.J. LeMahieu. But New York has gotten meaningful contributions from young players on the hitting and pitching side alike. Game 4 featured an all-rookie battery — righty Luis Gil and catcher Austin Wells, both leading AL Rookie of the Year candidates.
The shortstop, Anthony Volpe, just completed his second season and was nominated for what would be his second straight Gold Glove. He’s improved his consistency at the plate as well, though he has plenty of work to do in that regard. He has a .459 OBP during the postseason.
The Yankees are still a star-driven team but they have better balance in the clubhouse. Going back through the history of baseball’s most successful franchise, that’s usually been the case when they win big.
“We’ve had some great groups, some great camaraderie, some great clubhouses,” Boone said. “This group is as close as I’ve ever seen, and they trust each other. They lean on each other. They love each other. They play for each other. Those are special things to have in a team sport.”
This team has won big so far but the ultimate goal hasn’t yet been achieved. And that goal — in the Bronx — is really one that matters, the one that will truly quench this drought.
“To get there doesn’t mean much,” Stanton said. “We need to win it.”
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.
Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?
Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.
And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.
But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.
This week’s Anger Index:
There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.
It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)
To look at actual results paints a clear picture.
BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.
Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?
And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.
What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.
There’s a great, though little watched, TV show from the 2010s called “Rectify,” about a man who escapes death row after new evidence is found, only to be constantly harassed by the same system that fraudulently locked him away for 20 years. This is basically the story of SMU.
Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 13 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 22, .578 opponent win percentage
Team B: 7-1 record, No. 15 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 91, .567 opponent win percentage
OK, you probably guessed Team A is SMU. The Mustangs have wins against Louisville and Pitt — both relatively emphatic — and their lone loss came to No. 9 BYU, which came before a quarterback change and included five red zone drives that amounted to only six total points.
Team B? That’s Notre Dame. The Irish have the worst loss by far (to Northern Illinois) of any team in the top 25, beat a common opponent by the same score (though, while SMU outgained Louisville by 20 yards, the Cardinals actually outgained Notre Dame by 115) and have played one fewer game.
The difference? SMU has the stigma — of the death penalty, of the upstart program new to the Power 4, of being unworthy. Notre Dame is the big brand, and that results in being ranked three spots higher and, if the playoff were held today, getting in, while the Mustangs are left out.
There are three two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, which seems to be a perfectly reasonable consensus if you look at the AP poll, too. But are we sure that’s so reasonable?
Two stats we like to look at to measure a team’s quality are success rate (how often does a team make a play that improves its odds of winning) and explosiveness. Measure the differentials in each between offense and defense, then plot those out, and you’ll get a pretty clear look of who’s truly dominant in college football this season.
Explosive Play differential vs. Successful Play differential
Auburn & Ark make no sense
Iowa & Iowa St are twinsies!
Is Ole Miss undervalued? pic.twitter.com/h87SKCdOtr— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 3, 2024
That outer band that features Penn State, Texas, Miami, Ohio State and Indiana (and notably, not Oregon, Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M)? That’s where Ole Miss lives.
The Rebels have two losses this season, each by three points, both in games they outgained the winning team. They lost to LSU on the road and, yes, somehow lost to a dismal Kentucky team. But hey, LSU lost to USC, too. It has been a weird season.
SP+ loves Ole Miss. The Rebels check in at No. 4 there, behind only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia.
The FPI agrees, ranking the Rebels fifth.
In ESPN’s game control metric, no team is better. Ole Miss has the third-best average in-game win percentage. That suggests a lot of strange twists, and bad luck was involved with its losses. These are things the committee should be evaluating when comparing like teams.
But how about this comparison?
Team A: 7-2, 23 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Team B: 7-2, 19 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Pretty similar, eh?
Of course, one of them is Ole Miss. That’s Team A this time around.
Team B is Alabama, ranked five spots higher.
Sure, this situation can be resolved quite easily this weekend with a win over Georgia, but Ole Miss starting at the back of the pack of SEC contenders seems like a miss by the committee, even if the math will change substantially before the next rankings are revealed.
Oh, thanks so much for the No. 25 nod, committee. All Army has done is win every game without trailing the entire season. Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But Army? At No. 25? Thirteen spots behind Boise State, the Knights’ competition for the Group of 5’s bid? Something tells us some spies from Air Force have infiltrated the committee’s room in some sort of Manchurian Candidate scenario.
Sure, the Seminoles are terrible now, and yes, the committee this season has plenty of new faces, but that doesn’t mean folks in Tallahassee have forgiven or forgotten what happened a year ago. Before the committee’s playoff snub, FSU had won 19 straight games and averaged 39 points. Since the snub, the Noles are 1-9 and haven’t scored 21 points in any game. Who’s to blame for this? Mike Norvell? The coaching staff? DJ Uiagalelei and the other struggling QBs? Well, sure. But it’s much easier to just blame the committee. Those folks killed Florida State’s playoff hopes and ended their run of success. The least they could do this year is rank them No. 25 just for fun.
Also angry: South Carolina (5-3, unranked), Vanderbilt (6-3, unranked), Georgia (7-1, No. 3), Louisville (6-3, No. 22), everyone who is not in the Big Ten.
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Pete Thamel, ESPN
Nebraska is adding former Houston and West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen to the staff as an offensive consultant, sources told ESPN.
Holgorsen will work with the offensive staff in a role that will evolve as the season goes on, per sources. Holgorsen joins the staff after spending this season with TCU as an offensive consultant.
He joins Nebraska at a time when the offense — and freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola — have been mired in a rut of uneven play and the team is on a three-game losing streak.
In Nebraska’s six conference games, the Cornhuskers rank No. 12 in the Big Ten in offense, No. 14 in rushing offense and No. 11 in passing offense. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield has drawn criticism during Nebraska’s recent offensive slump, which has seen a dip in the passing game of Raiola, who was ESPN’s No. 11 recruit and the top pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class.
Raiola has the third-most interceptions among Big Ten quarterbacks with eight, trailing Michigan State‘s Aidan Chiles (11) and USC‘s Miller Moss (9), who is being benched by the Trojans in favor of Jayden Maiava for next week’s matchup with the Cornhuskers.
In the past four games, Raiola has thrown just one touchdown and six interceptions. After starting 5-1, Nebraska is 5-4 and needs a win during a tough closing stretch to clinch the program’s first bowl game since 2016. That’s the longest drought of any team in power conference football.
Nebraska has a bye this week before next week’s visit to USC.
In adding Holgorsen, they are bringing in a coach who is a noted quarterback tutor and author of prolific offenses. Over the years he has worked with a slew of top college quarterbacks as an assistant and head coach — Graham Harrell, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, Will Grier and Clayton Tune.
Holgorsen arrived in Lincoln on Monday, per sources.
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