Who gets the NHL’s next big contract? Here are the top candidates right now
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
Contract negotiations are a delicate thing. Some NHL players prefer tuning them out all together during the season. Others might want the process wrapped up quickly — but fairly — and listen in on every detail year round.
The key is not to let those conversations be a distraction to what is actually being achieved on the ice.
Just ask Alexis Lafreniere.
He’s the latest player to sign a long-term extension, inking a seven-year, $52.15 million pact with the New York Rangers last week on the heels of a breakout 2023-24 campaign where the 23-year-old tallied 28 goals and 57 points in 82 games. If Lafreniere continues that sort of growth his big deal will be a sweet steal for the Rangers.
Now that Lafreniere is locked in long term, who might be next to secure the proverbial bag?
There’s already speculation around what the likes of Connor McDavid, Cale Makar and Kirill Kaprizov could receive on a fresh extension, which they’re all eligible to sign beginning next July.
After conversations with league insiders, here is a sample of players — from the obvious to perhaps more obscure — that are poised to (possibly) get paid sooner rather than later. And with the NHL salary cap expected to keep climbing upwards from its current $88 million, there’s (potentially) even more money to spare when those contracts are doled out.
The superstars
It was a gasp heard ’round the hockey world when ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reported earlier this month that Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin had turned down an eight-year, $88 million extension — which would have made Shesterkin the highest-paid goalie in NHL history.
Make no mistake: Shesterkin will be paid handsomely at some point — in New York or somewhere else if the pending unrestricted free agent so chooses. And that deal will recalibrate the market for goaltenders going forward.
“My guess is Shesterkin will get upwards of $11.5 [million] per,” one agent said. “He’s not going to settle for a lower number just because. I think the [Jeremy] Swayman situation proved that’s no longer [a norm].”
Fair enough. Plus, Shesterkin has come a long way over the course of his current four-year, $22.67 million deal. He won a Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender following the 2021-22 season, and finished third that year in Hart Trophy voting for league MVP. He’s perennially one of the NHL’s top netminders and this season is no different; Shesterkin is 4-1-1, with a .926 save percentage and 2.16 goals-against average, both of which ratios are top five in the NHL.
Shesterkin’s position as New York’s backbone makes his next contract the massive move worth watching for next — and who knows? There could be more drama on the way there before pens hit paper.
Speaking of dramatics, there’s been no shortage of those surrounding Mitch Marner. The Toronto Maple Leafs winger has declined to comment publicly on extension talks, but they are happening behind closed doors. Marner’s current mark of $10.9 million per year seems likely to rise, and he has two teammates as points of comparison in talks: Auston Matthews‘ $13.5 million per year salary and William Nylander‘s $11.5 million. Marner falls somewhere in the middle.
His camp has taken a “wait and see” approach with the Leafs thus far, testing the waters from training camp into the new season and watching how that played out. Marner’s had a solid start to the campaign with one goal and 10 points in nine games, giving him the team lead in scoring. With that in mind, it would behoove the Leafs to get Marner’s deal done now before any asking price starts to rise.
On the other hand, it’s the postseason where Toronto has most wanted to see Marner at his best — and where the winger has repeatedly faltered at being a certifiable difference-maker.
“It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Marner gets to the summer without an extension,” another agent said. “It also wouldn’t shock me if Marner was the next guy signed [to a big contract]. He’s a dominant player. But how does [GM Brad Treliving] see that team’s core now and going forward? It all factors in.”
One marquee player who might not be satisfied quickly (or easily) by his current club? Mikko Rantanen. The Colorado Avalanche‘s top-line winger appears to have stalled out in conversations with the Avs about extending beyond his current deal worth $9.25 million per season. Rantanen has teammate Nathan MacKinnon‘s eight-year, $100.8 million contract as a comparison tool, and that’s not necessarily the range Colorado sees Rantanen landing in — even if Rantanen does.
Expect Rantanen to use a hot 2024-25 campaign — in which he’s now tied for third in league scoring with four goals and 13 points — to showcase why he’s worth a MacKinnon-like payday when the time comes to close a deal, in Colorado or somewhere else.
The core set
It’s not like typically tight-lipped New York Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello is going to tip his hand about Brock Nelson‘s future with the team. But, Nelson is a pending UFA and despite some rampant speculation the Islanders could move him at the trade deadline, there’s a strong case to be made for paying the man to stay long-term.
Nelson’s career has been on the rise for most of the past three seasons, over which he’s led New York with 111 goals and 209 points in 244 games (that’s with three consecutive 30-plus goal outings). Frankly, the 33-year-old has been showing up for a roster that’s consistently short on scoring, and the fact he’s getting better year over year makes extending him past this six-year, $36 million contract smart business for Lamoriello. Foundational pieces like Nelson are hard to come by.
It’s a similar situation with Vancouver forward Brock Boeser. Despite an up-and-down run with the Canucks to date that included last season’s disappointing finish to the postseason due to a blood-clotting issue, there’s no denying Boeser’s position as a steady force in Vancouver’s offense. The 27-year-old had the best regular season of his career in 2023-24, pacing the Canucks with 40 goals and 73 points in 81 games — then added seven goals and 12 points in 12 postseason tilts before being sidelined. Those numbers — coupled with a point-per-game start to this season — should net Boeser a hefty increase on his current three-year, $19.95 million deal.
It may take a while for the Canucks to sort through their cap situation and find a middle ground with Boeser. And given how well he’s playing, Boeser might not mind waiting, either.
Another core player that seems like a no-brainer for a long-term deal is Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett. Talks are ongoing between the Panthers and their pending UFA, and that’s a great thing for both parties. Florida already sealed the (long-term) deal with Carter Verhaeghe this month, and taking care of Bennett is GM Bill Zito’s next priority.
Bennett has eclipsed the 40-point mark in his last three seasons with Florida and gathered 20-plus goals in two of those outings, making him one of the Panthers’ most reliable pieces up front. He’s shown to be one of the league’s prominent power forwards — an increasingly rare breed — and Bennett also packed a punch for the Panthers in the playoffs, averaging nearly a point per game in both of their runs to the Stanley Cup Final, in 2023 and 2024.
Bennett is wrapping up a contract worth $4.425 million this season, and while he should expect a raise of some sort, the opportunity to keep winning in Florida might be all the juice Bennett needs to get a more team-friendly deal closed and keep the good times rolling.
The rising stars
It’s simpler, in some cases, to peg where established players (like those above) might land in terms of their next significant contracts. For the ones still putting down roots in the league? Trickier!
Take the Boston Bruins‘ Morgan Geekie. He had a standout season in 2023-24, with career-high totals in goals (17) and points (39) through 76 games. Geekie entered training camp this fall with elevated expectations and top-six potential. Boston’s uncharacteristically slow start to the campaign has seemed to put the entire team — including Geekie — in a haze, and the 26-year-old has just one assist in his first eight games.
What does it all mean in the grand scheme for Boston’s pending RFA? Plenty. The Bruins have seen Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retire in recent years, and it’s guys like Geekie who can replace them into the future. That’s not to say Geekie will be overpaid immediately, but it’s in Boston’s best interest to give Geekie a solid deal that solidifies his place as a premier part of their future. Doing so before summer could be a boost for Geekie’s confidence.
The Dallas Stars have a comparably important player in Wyatt Johnston, who’s also set to be a restricted free agent — and who they would be wise to take care of in short order. Johnston has face-of-the-franchise potential after the last two seasons, during which time he produced 56 goals and 106 points. Johnston is also just 21 years old; given he’s already become a cornerstone of the Stars’ offense, that’s going to cost them on a new deal.
Offering Johnston a long-term deal at around the same $8-$8.5 million a year salary that Dallas has doled out to teammates Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen should be enough to keep everyone happy. Johnston has been with Dallas on consecutive trips to the Western Conference finals, and the opportunity to stay in a winning fold is hard to turn down.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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