The chancellor cannot rule out more tax rises in the next five years, despite raising the burden to its highest level since comparable records began.
Speaking to Sky News following Labour’s first fiscal event since 2010, Rachel Reeves said it would be “irresponsible” to promise there will not be further tax rises.
However, she suggested that the scale of today’s tax hike – £40bn – was a “once in a parliament” event.
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10:58
Watch the full interview
Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby, Ms Reeves said: “I’m not going to make a commitment to never change taxes again.
“That would be irresponsible.
“But this is a once-in-a-parliament budget to wipe the slate clean after the mess that the Conservatives have left us.”
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The chancellor was asked if she accepted that by raising taxes in such a drastic fashion, she had broken Labour’s manifesto – the document in which a government lays out its policy position before an election.
“I accept that this is a big and a substantial budget,” the chancellor answered.
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2:48
Budget 2024: Key takeaways
“It wasn’t the budget that I was expecting to deliver.
“When I became chancellor on 5 July, I didn’t think that any government would be so reckless to have £22bn of unfunded commitments.”
An analysis provided by the OBR did not confirm Ms Reeves assertion of a £22bn “black hole” – saying it was impossible to calculate exactly how much money the Treasury had not told the watchdog about.
But it did say the March forecast would have had to be redone if they had been told about spending pressures not mentioned to them at the time.
Government documents released today broke down the pressures – including £7.3bn for health and social care, £3,1bn for education, £7.1bn for the Home Office and £4.4bn for defence.
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0:45
‘This budget raises taxes by £40bn’
Speaking to Sky News, Ms Reeves defended pay rises awarded to the public sector since Labour took power.
She said the last government set the remit for the pay review bodies but “hadn’t set an affordability criteria”.
And the chancellor said the huge injection of cash into the NHS – more than £20bn – was needed because otherwise appointments would have to be reduced.
‘No one’s ever compared me to Jeremy Corbyn before’
All of these measures were in the spirit of the “first step in our manifesto”, according to Ms Reeves, which was “to return stability to our economy”.
“That is the most important thing that I had to do as chancellor, and we do have a mandate to bring that stability back to the economy.”
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Asked if her increase in tax and spending was comparable to Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto promises in 2017 and 2019, the chancellor said: “No one’s ever compared me to Jeremy Corbyn before. I stood down from his shadow cabinet because I disagreed with everything that he was doing.
“But if you’re faced with a situation where there’s a £22bn black hole in the public finances, you can either sweep that under the carpet or you can be open and transparent and honest with people about the situation you find yourself in.”
The chairman of AO, the online electrical goods retailer, has been interviewed to become the next chair of state-owned broadcaster Channel 4.
Sky News has learnt that Geoff Cooper, a former boss of the builders’ merchant Travis Perkins, is among the candidates in the running to take on the post in the coming months.
Whitehall insiders said that Mr Cooper was now one of the shortlisted contenders awaiting news of whether they would get the nod from Ofcom, the media regulator and culture secretary Lisa Nandy.
In recent weeks, Sky News has revealed that those vying to replace Sir Ian Cheshire include Justin King, the former J Sainsbury boss; Wol Kolade, a private equity executive who has donated substantial sums of money to the Conservative Party; Debbie Wosskow, a start-up founder who already sits on the Channel 4 board.
Simon Dingemans, a former Goldman Sachs banker who sits on the board of WPP, the marketing services group, has also been shortlisted, according to the Financial Times.
Sir Ian stepped down earlier this year after just one term, having presided over a successful attempt to thwart privatisation by the last Tory government.
He was replaced on an interim basis by Dawn Airey, the media industry executive who has occupied top jobs at companies including ITV, Channel 5 and Yahoo!.
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The race to lead the state-owned broadcaster’s board has acquired additional importance since the resignation of Alex Mahon, its long-serving chief executive.
It has since been reported that Alex Burford, another Channel 4 non-executive director and the boss of Warner Records UK, is a possible contender to replace Ms Mahon.
A vocal opponent of Channel 4’s privatisation, which was abandoned by the last Conservative government, Ms Mahon is leaving to join Superstruct, a private equity-owned live entertainment company.
The appointment of a new chair is expected to take place by the autumn, with the chosen candidate expected to lead the recruitment of Ms Mahon’s successor.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport has declined to comment on the recruitment process, while Mr Cooper could not be reached for comment.
A British space surveillance company which has won a string of government contracts will this week announce a £5.4m fundraising to expand its global network of advanced telescopes.
Sky News understands that Spaceflux, which was founded three years ago, has secured the injection of capital in a round led by the UK Innovation & Science Seed Fund (UKI2S), which is managed by Future Planet Capital, as well as Foresight Group and Blackfinch Ventures.
Seraphim Space, the listed specialist investor in space-related companies, is also contributing funding.
Spaceflux uses artificial intelligence and optical sensors to track satellites and debris across all orbits, with its daylight tracking capability meaning it can expand the observation window beyond night-time operations.
Its provision of space situational awareness technologies is in growing demand amid warnings that a week-long disruption to satellite navigation could incur a £7.6bn hit to the UK economy.
In a statement to Sky News, Marco Rocchetto, CEO and co-founder of Spaceflux, said: “As space becomes increasingly essential to our economy, environment and daily lives, it is also becoming more congested and contested.
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“This investment strengthens our ability to protect satellite technology that delivers crucial insights to Earth around the clock, reducing collision risks, and supporting a safer, more sustainable space environment for future generations”.
The valuation at which the funding was being committed was unclear on Thursday.
Spaceflux, which serves government and commercial customers, has been the exclusive provider of geostationary satellite tracking for the Ministry of Defence and UK Space Agency since 2023.
Alex Leigh, an investment director at UKI2S, said: “This investment marks a significant step in the convergence of defence and space, where dual-use technologies are becoming increasingly important to UK capability.
“Spaceflux’s technology offers critical insights to help monitor and safeguard orbital assets – supporting both national security and the wider commercial ecosystem.
“The company is well-positioned to scale its impact and meet the needs of customers navigating an increasingly complex space environment.”
Welfare versus warfare: for decades, it’s a question to which successive prime ministers have responded with one answer.
After the end of the Cold War, leaders across the West banked the so-called “peace dividend” that came with the end of this conflict between Washington and Moscow.
Instead of funding their armies, they invested in the welfare state and public services instead.
But now the tussle over this question is something that the current prime minister is grappling with, and it is shaping up to be one of the biggest challenges for Sir Keir Starmer since he got the job last year.
As Clement Attlee became the Labour prime minister credited with creating the welfare state after the end of the Second World War, so it now falls on the shoulders of the current Labour leader to create the warfare state as Europe rearms.
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UK to buy nuclear-carrying jets
Be it Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, arguing last year that Europe had moved from the post-war era to the pre-war era; or European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen calling on the EU to urgently rearm Ukraine so it is a “steel porcupine” against Russian invaders; there is a consensus that the UK and Europe are on – to quote Sir Keir – a “war footing” and must spend more on defence.
To that end the prime minister has committed to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, raiding the overseas development aid budget to do so, and has also committed, alongside other NATO allies, to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035.
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What is NATO’s 5% defence spending goal?
That is a huge leap in funding and a profound shift from what have been the priorities for government spending – the NHS, welfare and education – in recent decades.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Carl Emmerson said the increase, in today’s terms, would be like adding approximately £30bn to the 2027 target of spending around £75bn on core defence.
Sir Keir has been clear-eyed about the decision, arguing that the first duty of any prime minister is to keep his people safe.
But the pledge has raised the obvious questions about how those choices are funded, and whether other public services will face cuts at a time when the UK’s economic growth is sluggish and public finances are under pressure.
This, then, is one of his biggest challenges: can he make sure Britain looks after itself in a fragile world, while also sticking to his promises to deliver for the country?
It is on this that the prime minister has come unstuck over the summer, as he was forced to back down over proposed welfare cuts to the tune of £5bn at the end of this term, in the face of a huge backbench rebellion. Many of his MPs want warfare and welfare.
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Starmer and Merz sign deal on defence and migration
“There’s been a real collision in recent weeks between those two policy worlds,” explains Jim Murphy, who served both as a welfare minister under Tony Blair and shadow defence secretary under Ed Miliband.
“In welfare, how do you provide for the people who genuinely need support and who, without the state’s support, couldn’t survive? What’s the interplay between that and the unconditional strategic need to invest more in defence?
“For the government, they either get economic growth or they have a series of eye-watering choices in which there can be no compromise with the defence of the state and everything else faces very serious financial pressures.”
He added: “No Labour politician comes into politics to cut welfare, schools or other budgets. But on the basis that defence is non-negotiable, everything else, unfortunately, may face those cuts.”
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7:02
‘There are lines I will not cross’
While the PM sees this clearly, ask around the cabinet table and ministers will admit that the tough choices society will need to take if they genuinely want to respond to the growing threat from Russia, compounded by the unpredictability of Donald Trump, is yet to fully sink in.
There are generations of British citizens that have only ever lived in peace, that do not, like I do, remember the Cold War or The Troubles.
There are also millions of Britons struggling with the cost of living and and public satisfaction with key public services is at historic lows. That is why Labour campaigned in the election on the promise of change, to raise living standards and cut NHS waiting lists.
Ask the public, and 49% of people recognise defence spending needs to increase. But 53% don’t want it to come from other areas of public spending, while 55% are opposed to paying more tax to fund that defence increase.
There is also significant political resistance from the Labour Party.
Sir Keir’s attempts to make savings in the welfare budget have been roundly rejected by his MPs. Instead, his backbenchers are talking about more tax rises to fund public services, or even a broader rethink of Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules.
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6:36
Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
Anneliese Dodds, who quit as development minister over cuts to the overseas aid budget, wrote in her resignation letter that she had “expected [cabinet] would collectively discuss our fiscal rules and approach to taxation, as other nations are doing”, as part of a wider discussion about the changing threats.
In an interview for our Electoral Dysfunctionpodcast, which will be released later this summer, she expanded on this idea.
She said: “I think it’s really important to take a step back and think about what’s going to be necessary, looking 10, 20 years ahead. It looks like the world is not going to become safer, unfortunately, during that period. It’s really important that we increase defence spending.
“I think that does mean we’ve got to really carefully consider those issues about our fiscal rules and about taxation. That isn’t easy… nonetheless, I think we will have to face up to some really big issues.
“Now is the time when we need to look at what other countries are doing. We need to consider whether we have the right system in place.”
Image: Anneliese Dodds quit the government over cuts to the overseas aid budget. Pic: PA
For the Labour MP, that means potentially reassessing the fiscal rules and how the fiscal watchdog assesses government spending to perhaps give the government more leeway. She also believes that the government should look again at tax rises.
She added: “We do, I believe, need to think about taxation.
“Now again, there’s no magic wand. There will be implications from any change that would be made. As I said before, we are quite highly taxing working people now, but I think there are ways in which we can look at taxation, not without implications.
“But in a world of difficult trade-offs, we’ve got to take the least worst trade-off for the long term. And that’s what I think is gonna be really important.”
Those trade-offs are going to be discussed more and more into the autumn, ahead of what is looking like an extremely difficult budget for the PM and Ms Reeves.
Image: Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer are facing difficult choices. Pic: PA
Not only is the chancellor now dealing with a £5bn shortfall in her accounts from the welfare reform reversal, but she is also dealing with higher-than-expected borrowing costs, fuelled by surging debt costs.
Plus, government borrowing was £3.5bn more than forecast last month, with June’s borrowing coming in at £20.7bn – the second-highest figure since records began in 1993.
Some economists are now predicting that the chancellor will have to raise taxes or cut spending by around £20bn in the budget to fill the growing black hole.
Image: Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt says Labour’s U-turn on cuts to welfare risk trapping Britain in a ‘doom loop’
Jeremy Hunt, former Conservative chancellor and now backbencher, tells me he was “massively disappointed” that Labour blinked on welfare reform.
He said: “First of all, it’s terrible for people who are currently trapped on welfare, but secondly, because the risk is that the consequence of that, is that we get trapped in a doom loop of very higher taxes and lower growth.”
‘This group of politicians have everything harder ‘
Mr Murphy says he has sympathy for the predicament of this Labour government and the task they face.
He explained: “We were fortunate [back in the early 2000s] in that the economy was still relatively okay, and we were able to reform welfare and do really difficult reforms. This is another world.
“This group of politicians have everything harder than we had. They’ve got an economy that has been contracting, public services post-COVID in trouble, a restless public, a digital media, an American president who is at best unreliable, a Russian president.
“Back then [in the 2000s] it was inconceivable that we would fight a war with Russia. On every measure, this group of politicians have everything harder than we ever had.”
Over the summer and into the autumn, the drumbeat of tax rises will only get louder, particularly amongst a parliamentary party seemingly unwilling to back spending cuts.
But that just delays a problem unresolved, which is how a government begins to spend billions more on defence whilst also trying to maintain a welfare state and rebuild public services.
This is why the government is pinning so much hope onto economic growth as it’s escape route out of its intractable problem. Because without real economic growth to help pay for public services, the government will have to make a choice – and warfare will win out.
What is still very unclear is how Sir Keir manages to take his party and the people with him.