Tesla gives update on self-driving roadmap, v13 slips, more promises
Tesla has given an update on its self-driving roadmap. It confirmed that its FSD v13 update has been delayed into next month and it makes more promises.
Last month, Tesla released its first ‘AI roadmap’, which consisted of a more detailed plan about updates and new features it plans to push through the (Supervised) Full Self-Driving (FSD) program.
It was a welcomed way for us to track progress better. Still, we have already noted several problems with it, such as the fact that Tesla uses “miles between necessary disengagement” as a metric to track progress, and yet, it refuses to share any miles between disengagement data.
Furthermore, Tesla claimed that it completed all its September goals on the AI roadmap despite the biggest one being v12.5, achieving “~3x improvement miles between necessary interventions,” and we have seen no evidence of that happening.
In fact, crowdsourced data, the best available data since Tesla refuses to share any, shows that v12.5 is actually a regression compared to v12.3, the last widely released FSD update:
That’s based on over 40,000 miles of v12.5 data.
In the original roadmap, Tesla stated these goals for October:
- Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
- v13 with ~6x improved miles between necessary interventions
With October coming to a close today, Tesla has released an update. The automaker says that it accomplished this on its AI roadmap this month:
- End-to-end on highway has shipped to ~50k customers with v12.5.6.1
- Cybertruck build that improves responsiveness
- Successful We, Robot event with 50 autonomous Teslas safely transporting over 2,000 passengers
“End-to-End network on highway”, which constitutes using neural net controls for highway driving instead of just city streets, was supposed to happen back in September, but instead, Tesla has only been able to push it to a limited number of customers in October.
As for what’s coming next, Tesla now says that “end-to-end highway driving” is coming next week, but only for Tesla owners with HW4:
“Full rollout of end-to-end highway driving to all AI4 users, targeted for early next week, including enhancements in stop smoothness, less annoying bad weather notifications, and other safety improvements.”
For now, HW3 owners are stuck with this:
Improved v12.5.x models for AI3 city driving
Tesla also notes that “Actually Smart Summon will be released to Europe, China and other regions of the world” without a clear timeline.
Finally, Tesla comes back to v13, which the automaker now claims will include these improvements:
- 36 Hz, full-resolution AI4 video inputs
- Native AI4 inputs and neural network architectures
- 3x model size scaling
- 3x model context length scaling
- 4.2x data scaling
- 5x training compute scaling (enabled by the Cortex training cluster)
- Much improved reward predictions for collision avoidance, following traffic controls, navigation, etc.
- Efficient representation of maps and navigation inputs
- Audio inputs for better handling of emergency vehicles
- Redesigned controller for smoother, more accurate tracking – Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities
- Support for destination options including pulling over, parking in a spot, driveway, or garage
- Improved camera cleaning and handling of camera occlusions
Tesla added about v13 in its updated AI roadmap:
We have integrated several of these improvements and are already seeing a 4x increase in miles between necessary interventions compared to v12.5.4.
Interestingly, Tesla originally said it would be a “~6x improvement in miles between necessary interventions” in September and during its earnings call just last week, Elon Musk said it would be a “5-6x improvement.”
As for the new timeline for v13, Tesla is now targeting a wide release at the end of November:
This lays the foundation for the v13 series, and we are targeting to ship v13.0 to internal customers by the end of this week. Most of the remaining items are independently validated and will be integrated over November in a series of point releases. We are targeting a wide release with v13.3 with most of the above improvements for AI4 vehicles around Thanksgiving!
As you can see, it’s also again only for HW4 owners.
Electrek’s Take
My key takeaways here are: HW3 owners are screwed. Even though there was some progress with Elon finally admitting that HW3 might not be enough for unsupervised self-driving, we are still far from an actual resolution.
HW3 development is now falling months behind HW4 without even a clear timeline for catching up, and Tesla is only talking about maybe having to develop a retrofittable computer for HW3.
As for the pace of improvement, v13 is now at least a full month behind schedule, and we don’t know if it will actually result in a meaningful improvement in miles between disengagement. Even if it does, Tesla needs about several more updates that bring order of magnitudes improvements in miles between disengagement.
Considering the fact that v13 is now scheduled to come 8 months after v12 and 4 months after v12.5, the pace of improvement looks to be nowhere near what Tesla needs it to be to achieve its stated goal of 600,000 miles between critical disengagement by Q2 2025.
At this stage, it remains a pipe dream, in my opinion, which is based on the best data available. I will change my mind as more data comes in.
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Leading yard operation 3PL YMX Logistics has announced plans to deploy fully twenty (20) of Orange EV’s fully electric Class 8 terminal trucks at a number of distribution and manufacturing sites across North America.
As the shipping and logistics industries increasingly move to embrace electrification, yard operations have proven to be an almost ideal use case for EVs, enabling companies like Orange EV, which specialize in yard hostlers or terminal tractors, to drive real, impactful change. To that end, companies like YMX are partnering with Orange EV.
“This relationship between YMX and Orange EV is a significant step forward in transforming yard operations across North America,” said Matt Yearling, CEO of YMX Logistics. “Besides the initial benefits of reduction in emissions and carbon footprint, our customers are also seeing improvements in the overall operational efficiency and seeking to expand. Our team members have also been sharing positive feedback about their new equipment and highlighting the positive impact on their health and day-to-day activities.”
This Orange looks good in blue
One of the most interesting aspects of this story – beyond the Orange EV HUSK-e XP’s almost unbelievable 180,000 lb. GCWR spec. – is that this isn’t a story about California’s ports, which mandate EVs. Instead, YMX is truly deploying these trucks throughout the country, with at least four currently in Chicago (and more on the way).
“Our collaboration with YMX Logistics represents a powerful stride in delivering sustainable yard solutions at scale for enterprise customers,” explains Wayne Mathisen, CEO of Orange EV. “With rising demand for electric yard trucks, our joint efforts ensure that more companies can access the environmental, financial, and operational benefits of electrification … this is a win for the planet, the workforce, and the bottom line of these organizations.”
We interviewed Orange EV founder Kurt Neutgens on The Heavy Equipment Podcast a few months back, but if you’re not familiar with these purpose-built trucks, it’s worth a listen.
HEP-isode 26
SOURCE | IMAGES: YMX Logistics.
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On today’s thrilling episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got the all-new Hyundai IONIQ 9 and its “a “rolling living room” pivoting captain’s chairs, Kia gets a go-fast 7 passenger SUV and an updated EV6, while Honda announces plans to start producing solid-state batteries at its new facility in just a few weeks.
We’ve also got big news for American workers – a Minnesota power company is ditching coal for solar while ExxonMobil and LG Chem get to work extracting thousands of tons of lithium out of Tennessee’s soil.
Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 52% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday sale, now through November 28, and be sure to use promo code BLUETTI5OFF for 5% off all power stations sitewide. Learn more by clicking here.
You can watch the episode, below.
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Read more: Farm-fegnugen? Volkswagen rolls out an electric tractor.
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Arevon Energy has kicked off operations at Vikings Solar-plus-Storage – one of the US’s first utility-scale solar peaker plants.
The $529 million project in Imperial County, California, near Holtville, features 157 megawatts of solar power paired with 150 megawatts/600 megawatt hours of battery storage.
Vikings Solar-plus-Storage is designed to take cheap daytime solar power and store it for use during more expensive peak demand times, like late afternoons and evenings. The battery storage system can quickly respond to changes in demand, helping tackle critical grid needs.
Vikings leverages provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that support affordable clean energy, strengthen grid resilience, boost US manufacturing, and create good jobs.
The Vikings project has already brought significant benefits to the local area. It employed over 170 people during construction, many local workers, and boosted nearby businesses like restaurants, hotels, and stores. On top of that, Vikings will pay out more than $17 million to local governments over its lifespan.
“Vikings’ advanced design sets the standard for safe and reliable solar-plus-storage configurations,” said Arevon CEO Kevin Smith. “The project incorporates solar panels, trackers, and batteries that showcase the growing strength of US renewable energy manufacturing.”
The project includes Tesla Megapack battery systems made in California, First Solar’s thin-film solar panels, and smart solar trackers from Nextracker. San Diego-based SOLV Energy handled the engineering, procurement, and construction work.
San Diego Community Power (SDCP) will buy the energy from the Vikings project under a long-term deal, helping power nearly 1 million customer accounts. SDCP and Arevon have also signed an agreement for the 200 MW Avocet Energy Storage Project in Carson, California, which will start construction in early 2025.
Vikings is named after the Holtville High School mascot, and Arevon is giving back to the local community by funding scholarships for deserving Holtville High students.
Arevon is a major renewable energy developer across the US and a key player in California, with nearly 2,500 MW in operation and more than 1,250 MW under construction.
Read more: Minnesota’s largest coal plant goes solar: Sherco Solar comes online
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