“It’s the economy, stupid”. It was back in 1992 when political strategist James Carville coined a phrase that feels to me to be wholly apt again right now.
It was by focusing on the state of the economy that Carville helped Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush 22 years ago.
For headscratchers today wondering why a man so divisive and with so much baggage as Donald Trump could be within a whisker of the White House, it may be that the answer, again, is: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
In suburban North Carolina it doesn’t take long to realise just how much people’s back pockets are pushing them to the polling booth.
Kannapolis is America’s suburbia. It’s middle class, leafy and the polls suggest it’s on a knife edge now, just as it was four years ago.
Image: James Carville coined the phrase, ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ back in 1992 Pic: Reuters
Back in 2020, Donald Trump won this town’s district by just nine votes. With small gains like this across the state, the former president won North Carolina by a whisker – 1.3%.
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You need to go back to Obama in 2008 for the last time the Democrats won this state, then by 14,000 votes. Before that Republicans won here every cycle since 1980.
When Biden was the Democratic Party candidate, the state looked like a lost cause for the Democrats. But replacing him with Kamala Harris flipped the polls. Suddenly it was a state in play. She cut Donald Trump’s sizable lead to neck-and-neck and it remained there.
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Shifting demographics, a large African-American community, a growing urban and suburban population all give Democratic Party strategists hope that it’s within reach again. With its sizable 16 electoral college votes, a win here really helps propel either candidate to the 270 needed for victory nationally.
Cabarrus County is precisely the sort of place that the Republicans need to hold and the Democrats need to swing. I’ve come to the town of Kannapolis.
The train station here, linking it with the metropolis of Charlotte 30 minutes away, is doubling as the polling station and the queue to vote early is an hour long.
All who spoke to us were passionate, thoughtful and reflected the national split that runs down to within families.
But of the issues driving the decisions, one thing dominates almost always: the economy. Inflation is now down, unemployment is down. In many ways the US economy is the envy of the world. But the perception of things and nostalgia for the past runs deep.
On one street in this one town, we spoke to a range of voters in three businesses – a local entrepreneur, a waiter, a restaurant manager, a shop owner and a customer. All three businesses we visited were chosen at random and we’ve included every person we spoke to.
Rylee Mullery, babysitting between jobs
“I would say income taxes and the open border is definitely the biggest issue for me personally. And I feel like it’s just gone downhill since then. So I hope that we can get that fixed by getting the right person in office.
“I went to the store the other day and got a full cart. Usually that costs $150 (£116). It was almost $400 (£309) for a full cart of just regular household needs from toilet paper to laundry detergent, paper towels, things like that. So I hope that that can be solved.
“I’m only 23 years old and it’s nice to know that people my age are finally waking up and seeing what’s actually good for our country.”
William Pasquale, waiter
“Right now everything is just too expensive for even basic needs. For families of four it’s too expensive. They can’t afford groceries right now. Some can’t even afford gas and that’s the way people get around. All these unemployment rates are way higher than they were before and it’s just getting worse and worse.”
Deana Ross, restaurant manager
“In the beginning…. nobody wanted to admit that they were liking him [Trump]… because he is a bit rough around the edges… but he knew what he was doing. And I think this time around, now that we’ve had that four year gap without him and they’ve seen what happened, the scales tipped a little.
Everybody’s like, ‘Oh, maybe he wasn’t that bad’. So I feel like everybody’s changing their mind and their opinion about what kind of a president he is, as opposed to what kind of a person he is.
“The Biden administration really dropped the ball for the country and what’s best for our country. And I feel like Donald Trump might try to improve that like he was trying before.”
Dwayne Jackson, popcorn shop owner
“A lot of people are basing their opinion on gimmicks. So if you’re focusing on the gimmicks and you’re not focusing on what the person’s actually saying, then you’re going to go according to the gimmicks.
“If somebody is running around here with 34 felonies, 34 plus felonies, and they’re still allowed to run for the presidency of the United States, where as if I was to go out here and commit one felony and get convicted of one felony, I could never vote again.
“I don’t like, you know, the name calling because you’re not teaching the children anything. When the kids look at this, we teach our children nothing.”
David Deal, local entrepreneur
“The pledge by both sides to scrap tax on tips is a huge issue for us. It saves us as business owners taxes and their payroll portion. And obviously them not being taxed would be fantastic. That would give them a raise and give us a little breathing room as well. Margins are tighter as inflation is pushed, the typical consumer’s daily expenses are up, even exponentially.
“There’s always advantages to both sides. I consider myself fiscally conservative. I’m a small business owner. How business principles and laws are applied mean a lot to me and whether I’m able to put a roof over my head as a business owner.
“But on the flip side a lot of times those [conservative] politics are aligned with certain groups that are less socially liberal. I consider myself fiscally conservative, socially liberal – people should do what makes them happy. A conundrum? Certainly.”
Police sources have told NBC News the identity of a man detained as a “person of interest” after a fatal shooting on the campus of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island.
Three senior law enforcement officials, briefed on the investigation, told Sky News’s US partner that the suspect is 24-year-old Benjamin Erickson, who had served several years in the US army.
Two people were killed and nine others, all or nearly all of whom are also believed to be students, were injured in the attack at around 4pm (9pm UK time) on Saturday.
Sources told NBC that authorities are looking into what might be an extensive mental health history for Mr Erickson. Any connection with Brown University is also being investigated.
FBI Director Kash Patel posted details of an arrest at a Hampton Inn hotel in Coventry, about 20 miles (32km) from Providence, early on Sunday, “based off a lead” from Providence police.
Image: An operation to arrest a ‘person of interest’ at a hotel in Coventry, Rhode Island. Pic: @FBIDirectorKash/X
Image: Police taping off hotel rooms following the arrest. Pic: AP
According to a statement provided to NBC News from army spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Ruth Castro: “Benjamin W Erickson was an Infantryman (11B) in the Regular Army from May 2021 to November 2024. He has no deployments and left the Army in the rank of specialist.”
Public records show he was living in Washington DC in 2024 and had also been resident in Wisconsin in 2020.
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Providence police chief Colonel Oscar Perez told reporters on Sunday that the investigation is “complex” and progressing “extremely fast”, but refused to elaborate.
The shooting happened inside a classroom on the first floor of the Barus & Holley engineering building, a seven-storey structure home to much of the university’s engineering and physics study and research.
Image: Part of the Brown University campus, the right side of the C-shaped block is the engineering building. Pic: Reuters
Brown University provost Frank Doyle confirmed that final exams were taking place in the engineering building when the gunman opened fire.
A police official told the AP news agency that the gunman fired more than 40 9mm rounds. A gun has not been recovered, but officers did seize two loaded 30-round magazines.
A video released by officials shows a suspect walking down a street away from the campus and turning a corner, dressed in dark, loose-fitting clothing.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Of those injured, eight people have been described as stable, although one remains critically ill. Another person has left hospital.
Providence mayor Brett Smiley said the order to shelter-in-place for nearby neighbourhoods had been lifted, but some streets remained shut as investigators work at the scene.
“The people of Providence should breathe a little easier this morning,” Mr Smiley added.
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1:17
‘Stay inside’ mayor warns after shooting
Access to parts of the campus remained restricted on Sunday as police maintained a security perimeter around Minden Hall and nearby apartment buildings.
The site has hundreds of buildings, including lecture halls, laboratories and dorms.
Brown is a private university with roughly 7,300 undergraduate students and more than 3,000 graduate students.
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Student Chiang-Heng Chien said he was working in one of the labs with three other students when they received a notification about a shooting nearby.
“We decided to turn the light off and close all the doors and hide under our desks, and wait for the next notification after the shooting,” he told reporters.
The students hid under the desks for about two hours.
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2:23
‘We hid under our desks for two hours’
“I was hoping that no one’s getting hurt and no one’s dead,” he said.
The students left the building when they received another notification, and security personnel moved in to search the facility.
Emma Ferraro, a chemical engineering student, was in the Barus & Holley lobby working on a final project when she heard loud popping sounds coming from the eastern side of the building.
For a moment, everyone paused and looked around, she recalled.
Once Ferraro realised the sounds were gunshots, she rushed to the door and ran to a nearby building, where she had been sheltering for the past few hours.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
One person who was initially thought to be involved in the shooting was detained but was later determined to have no involvement.
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that he had been briefed on the situation, which he called “terrible”.
“All we can do right now is pray for the victims and for those that were very badly hurt,” he added.
A “person of interest” has been detained after a gunman opened fire on the campus of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, killing two students.
Nine people, all or nearly all of whom are also believed to be students, were injured in the attack at around 4pm (9pm UK time) on Saturday.
Eight people have been described as stable, although one remains critically ill. Another person has left hospital.
A video released by officials shows a suspect walking down a street away from the campus and turning a corner, dressed in dark, loose-fitting clothing.
An FBI agent confirmed the arrest took place at a Hampton Inn hotel in Coventry, about 20 miles (32km) from Providence early on Sunday.
Authorities said the suspect was in their 20s, younger than was initially reported, but no further details have been released about them.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Providence Police Deputy Chief Tim O’Hara said the shooting happened inside a classroom on the first floor of the Barus & Holley engineering building, a seven-storey structure home to much of the university’s engineering and physics study and research.
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Brown University provost Frank Doyle confirmed that final exams were taking place in the engineering building Saturday afternoon when the gunman opened fire.
A police official told the AP news agency that the gunman fired more than 40 9mm rounds. A gun has not been recovered but officers did seize two loaded 30-round magazines.
On Sunday, Providence mayor Brett Smiley told reporters the order to shelter-in-place for nearby neighbourhoods had been lifted, but some streets remained shut as investigators work at the scene.
“The people of Providence should breathe a little easier this morning,” Mr Smiley added.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:17
‘Stay inside’ mayor warns after shooting
Access to parts of the campus remained restricted on Sunday as police maintained a security perimeter around Minden Hall and nearby apartment buildings.
The site has hundreds of buildings, including lecture halls, laboratories and dorms.
Brown is a private university with roughly 7,300 undergraduate students and more than 3,000 graduate students.
Datawrapper
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To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Datawrapper cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Datawrapper cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Datawrapper cookies for this session only.
Student Chiang-Heng Chien said he was working in one of the labs with three other students when they received a notification about a shooting nearby.
“We decided to turn the light off and close all the doors and hide under our desks, and wait for the next notification after the shooting,” he told reporters.
The students hid under the desks for about two hours.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:23
‘We hid under our desks for two hours’
“I was hoping that no one’s getting hurt and no one’s dead,” he said.
The students left the building when they received another notification, and security personnel moved in to search the facility.
Emma Ferraro, a chemical engineering student, was in the Barus & Holley lobby working on a final project when she heard loud popping sounds coming from the eastern side of the building.
For a moment, everyone paused and looked around, she recalled.
Once Ferraro realised the sounds were gunshots, she rushed to the door and ran to a nearby building, where she had been sheltering for the past few hours.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
One person who was initially thought to be involved in the shooting was detained but was later determined to have no involvement.
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that he had been briefed on the situation, which he called “terrible”.
“All we can do right now is pray for the victims and for those that were very badly hurt,” he added.