“It’s the economy, stupid”. It was back in 1992 when political strategist James Carville coined a phrase that feels to me to be wholly apt again right now.
It was by focusing on the state of the economy that Carville helped Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush 22 years ago.
For headscratchers today wondering why a man so divisive and with so much baggage as Donald Trump could be within a whisker of the White House, it may be that the answer, again, is: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
In suburban North Carolina it doesn’t take long to realise just how much people’s back pockets are pushing them to the polling booth.
Kannapolis is America’s suburbia. It’s middle class, leafy and the polls suggest it’s on a knife edge now, just as it was four years ago.
Image: James Carville coined the phrase, ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ back in 1992 Pic: Reuters
Back in 2020, Donald Trump won this town’s district by just nine votes. With small gains like this across the state, the former president won North Carolina by a whisker – 1.3%.
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You need to go back to Obama in 2008 for the last time the Democrats won this state, then by 14,000 votes. Before that Republicans won here every cycle since 1980.
When Biden was the Democratic Party candidate, the state looked like a lost cause for the Democrats. But replacing him with Kamala Harris flipped the polls. Suddenly it was a state in play. She cut Donald Trump’s sizable lead to neck-and-neck and it remained there.
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Shifting demographics, a large African-American community, a growing urban and suburban population all give Democratic Party strategists hope that it’s within reach again. With its sizable 16 electoral college votes, a win here really helps propel either candidate to the 270 needed for victory nationally.
Cabarrus County is precisely the sort of place that the Republicans need to hold and the Democrats need to swing. I’ve come to the town of Kannapolis.
The train station here, linking it with the metropolis of Charlotte 30 minutes away, is doubling as the polling station and the queue to vote early is an hour long.
All who spoke to us were passionate, thoughtful and reflected the national split that runs down to within families.
But of the issues driving the decisions, one thing dominates almost always: the economy. Inflation is now down, unemployment is down. In many ways the US economy is the envy of the world. But the perception of things and nostalgia for the past runs deep.
On one street in this one town, we spoke to a range of voters in three businesses – a local entrepreneur, a waiter, a restaurant manager, a shop owner and a customer. All three businesses we visited were chosen at random and we’ve included every person we spoke to.
Rylee Mullery, babysitting between jobs
“I would say income taxes and the open border is definitely the biggest issue for me personally. And I feel like it’s just gone downhill since then. So I hope that we can get that fixed by getting the right person in office.
“I went to the store the other day and got a full cart. Usually that costs $150 (£116). It was almost $400 (£309) for a full cart of just regular household needs from toilet paper to laundry detergent, paper towels, things like that. So I hope that that can be solved.
“I’m only 23 years old and it’s nice to know that people my age are finally waking up and seeing what’s actually good for our country.”
William Pasquale, waiter
“Right now everything is just too expensive for even basic needs. For families of four it’s too expensive. They can’t afford groceries right now. Some can’t even afford gas and that’s the way people get around. All these unemployment rates are way higher than they were before and it’s just getting worse and worse.”
Deana Ross, restaurant manager
“In the beginning…. nobody wanted to admit that they were liking him [Trump]… because he is a bit rough around the edges… but he knew what he was doing. And I think this time around, now that we’ve had that four year gap without him and they’ve seen what happened, the scales tipped a little.
Everybody’s like, ‘Oh, maybe he wasn’t that bad’. So I feel like everybody’s changing their mind and their opinion about what kind of a president he is, as opposed to what kind of a person he is.
“The Biden administration really dropped the ball for the country and what’s best for our country. And I feel like Donald Trump might try to improve that like he was trying before.”
Dwayne Jackson, popcorn shop owner
“A lot of people are basing their opinion on gimmicks. So if you’re focusing on the gimmicks and you’re not focusing on what the person’s actually saying, then you’re going to go according to the gimmicks.
“If somebody is running around here with 34 felonies, 34 plus felonies, and they’re still allowed to run for the presidency of the United States, where as if I was to go out here and commit one felony and get convicted of one felony, I could never vote again.
“I don’t like, you know, the name calling because you’re not teaching the children anything. When the kids look at this, we teach our children nothing.”
David Deal, local entrepreneur
“The pledge by both sides to scrap tax on tips is a huge issue for us. It saves us as business owners taxes and their payroll portion. And obviously them not being taxed would be fantastic. That would give them a raise and give us a little breathing room as well. Margins are tighter as inflation is pushed, the typical consumer’s daily expenses are up, even exponentially.
“There’s always advantages to both sides. I consider myself fiscally conservative. I’m a small business owner. How business principles and laws are applied mean a lot to me and whether I’m able to put a roof over my head as a business owner.
“But on the flip side a lot of times those [conservative] politics are aligned with certain groups that are less socially liberal. I consider myself fiscally conservative, socially liberal – people should do what makes them happy. A conundrum? Certainly.”
Donald Trump has announced he will impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union from 1 August.
The tariffs could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals more expensive in the US.
Mr Trump has also imposed a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico, according to a post from his Truth Social account.
Announcing the moves in separate letters on the account, the president said the US trade deficit was a national security threat.
In his letter to the EU, he wrote: “We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers.
“Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal.”
In his letter to Mexico, Mr Trump said he did not think the country had done enough to stop the US from turning into a “narco-trafficking playground”.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said today that the EU could adopt “proportionate countermeasures” if the US proceeds with imposing the 30% tariff.
Ms von der Leyen, who heads the EU’s executive arm, said in a statement that the bloc remained ready “to continue working towards an agreement by Aug 1”.
“Few economies in the world match the European Union’s level of openness and adherence to fair trading practices,” she continued.
“We will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”
Ms von der Leyen has also said imposing tariffs on EU exports would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains”.
Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on the X social media platform that Mr Trump’s announcement was “very concerning and not the way forward”.
He added: “The European Commission can count on our full support. As the EU we must remain united and resolute in pursuing an outcome with the United States that is mutually beneficial.”
Mexico’s economy ministry said a bilateral working group aims to reach an alternative to the 30% US tariffs before they are due to take effect.
The country was informed by the US that it would receive a letter about the tariffs, the ministry’s statement said, adding that Mexico was negotiating.
The US imposed a 20% tariff on imported goods from the EU in April but it was later paused and the bloc has since been paying a baseline tariff of 10% on goods it exports to the US.
In May, while the US and EU where holding trade negotiations, Mr Trump threated to impose a 50% tariff on the bloc as talks didn’t progress as he would have liked.
However, he later announced he was delaying the imposition of that tariff while negotiations over a trade deal took place.
As of earlier this week, the EU’s executive commission, which handles trade issues for the bloc’s 27-member nations, said its leaders were still hoping to strike a trade deal with the Trump administration.
Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.
Donald Trump has said he plans to hit Canada with a 35% tariff on imported goods, as he warned of a blanket 15 or 20% hike for most other countries.
In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the US president wrote: “I must mention that the flow of Fentanyl is hardly the only challenge we have with Canada, which has many Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers.”
Mr Trump’s tariffs were allegedly an effort to get Canada to crack down on fentanyl smuggling, and the US president has expressed frustration with Canada’s trade deficit with the US.
In a statement Mr Carney said: “Throughout the current trade negotiations with the United States, the Canadian government has steadfastly defended our workers and businesses. We will continue to do so as we work towards the revised deadline of August 1.”
He added: “Canada has made vital progress to stop the scourge of fentanyl in North America. We are committed to continuing to work with the United States to save lives and protect communities in both our countries.”
The higher rates would go into effect on 1 August.
Shortly after Mr Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs on 2 April, there was a huge sell-off on the financial markets. The US president later announced a 90-day negotiating period, during which a 10% baseline tariff would be charged on most imported goods.
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“We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work that out now,” he said.
He added: “I think the tariffs have been very well-received. The stock market hit a new high today.”
The US and UK signed a trade deal in June, with the US president calling it “a fair deal for both” and saying it will “produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income”.
Sir Keir Starmer said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, adding: “So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength.”
It comes as Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said a new round of talks between Moscow and Washington on bilateral problems could take place before the end of the summer.
A Palestinian activist who was detained for over three months in a US immigration jail after protesting against Israel is suing Donald Trump’s administration for $20m (£15m) in damages.
Lawyers for Mahmoud Khalil have filed a claim against the administration alleging he was falsely imprisoned, maliciously prosecuted and smeared as an antisemite as the government sought to deport him over his role in campus protests.
He described “plain-clothed agents and unmarked cars” taking him “from one place to another, expecting you just to follow orders and shackled all the time”, which he said was “really scary”.
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Mahmoud Khalil reunites with family after release
Mr Khalil said he was not presented with an arrest warrant and wasn’t told where he was being taken.
He said the detention centre he was taken to was “as far from humane as it could be” and “a place where you have no rights whatsoever”.
“You share a dorm with over 70 men with no privacy, with lights on all the time, with really terrible food. You’re basically being dehumanised at every opportunity. It’s a black hole,” he added.
Mr Khalil said he would also accept an official apology from the Trump administration.
The Trump administration celebrated Mr Khalil’s arrest, promising to deport him and others whose protests against Israel it declared were “pro-terrorist, antisemitic, anti-American activity”.
Mr Khalil said after around 36 hours in captivity he was allowed to speak to his wife, who was pregnant at the time.
“These were very scary hours, I did not know what was happening on the outside. I did not know that my wife was safe,” he said.
Mr Khalil said administration officials had made “absolutely absurd allegations” by saying he as involved in antisemitic activities and supporting Hamas.
“They are weaponising antisemitism, weaponising anti-terrorism in order to stifle speech,” he said. “What I was engaged in is simply opposing a genocide, opposing war crimes, opposing Columbia University’s complicity in the war on Gaza.”
A State Department spokesperson said its actions toward Mr Khalil were fully supported by the law.
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Asked about missing the birth of his son while he was in prison, Mr Khalil said: “I don’t think there’s any word that can describe the agony and the sadness that I went through, to be deprived from such a divine moment, from a moment that my wife and I had always dreamed about.”
Meanwhile, the deportation case against Mr Khalil is continuing to wind its way through the immigration court system.