“It’s the economy, stupid”. It was back in 1992 when political strategist James Carville coined a phrase that feels to me to be wholly apt again right now.
It was by focusing on the state of the economy that Carville helped Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush 22 years ago.
For headscratchers today wondering why a man so divisive and with so much baggage as Donald Trump could be within a whisker of the White House, it may be that the answer, again, is: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
In suburban North Carolina it doesn’t take long to realise just how much people’s back pockets are pushing them to the polling booth.
Kannapolis is America’s suburbia. It’s middle class, leafy and the polls suggest it’s on a knife edge now, just as it was four years ago.
Image: James Carville coined the phrase, ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ back in 1992 Pic: Reuters
Back in 2020, Donald Trump won this town’s district by just nine votes. With small gains like this across the state, the former president won North Carolina by a whisker – 1.3%.
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You need to go back to Obama in 2008 for the last time the Democrats won this state, then by 14,000 votes. Before that Republicans won here every cycle since 1980.
When Biden was the Democratic Party candidate, the state looked like a lost cause for the Democrats. But replacing him with Kamala Harris flipped the polls. Suddenly it was a state in play. She cut Donald Trump’s sizable lead to neck-and-neck and it remained there.
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Shifting demographics, a large African-American community, a growing urban and suburban population all give Democratic Party strategists hope that it’s within reach again. With its sizable 16 electoral college votes, a win here really helps propel either candidate to the 270 needed for victory nationally.
Cabarrus County is precisely the sort of place that the Republicans need to hold and the Democrats need to swing. I’ve come to the town of Kannapolis.
The train station here, linking it with the metropolis of Charlotte 30 minutes away, is doubling as the polling station and the queue to vote early is an hour long.
All who spoke to us were passionate, thoughtful and reflected the national split that runs down to within families.
But of the issues driving the decisions, one thing dominates almost always: the economy. Inflation is now down, unemployment is down. In many ways the US economy is the envy of the world. But the perception of things and nostalgia for the past runs deep.
On one street in this one town, we spoke to a range of voters in three businesses – a local entrepreneur, a waiter, a restaurant manager, a shop owner and a customer. All three businesses we visited were chosen at random and we’ve included every person we spoke to.
Rylee Mullery, babysitting between jobs
“I would say income taxes and the open border is definitely the biggest issue for me personally. And I feel like it’s just gone downhill since then. So I hope that we can get that fixed by getting the right person in office.
“I went to the store the other day and got a full cart. Usually that costs $150 (£116). It was almost $400 (£309) for a full cart of just regular household needs from toilet paper to laundry detergent, paper towels, things like that. So I hope that that can be solved.
“I’m only 23 years old and it’s nice to know that people my age are finally waking up and seeing what’s actually good for our country.”
William Pasquale, waiter
“Right now everything is just too expensive for even basic needs. For families of four it’s too expensive. They can’t afford groceries right now. Some can’t even afford gas and that’s the way people get around. All these unemployment rates are way higher than they were before and it’s just getting worse and worse.”
Deana Ross, restaurant manager
“In the beginning…. nobody wanted to admit that they were liking him [Trump]… because he is a bit rough around the edges… but he knew what he was doing. And I think this time around, now that we’ve had that four year gap without him and they’ve seen what happened, the scales tipped a little.
Everybody’s like, ‘Oh, maybe he wasn’t that bad’. So I feel like everybody’s changing their mind and their opinion about what kind of a president he is, as opposed to what kind of a person he is.
“The Biden administration really dropped the ball for the country and what’s best for our country. And I feel like Donald Trump might try to improve that like he was trying before.”
Dwayne Jackson, popcorn shop owner
“A lot of people are basing their opinion on gimmicks. So if you’re focusing on the gimmicks and you’re not focusing on what the person’s actually saying, then you’re going to go according to the gimmicks.
“If somebody is running around here with 34 felonies, 34 plus felonies, and they’re still allowed to run for the presidency of the United States, where as if I was to go out here and commit one felony and get convicted of one felony, I could never vote again.
“I don’t like, you know, the name calling because you’re not teaching the children anything. When the kids look at this, we teach our children nothing.”
David Deal, local entrepreneur
“The pledge by both sides to scrap tax on tips is a huge issue for us. It saves us as business owners taxes and their payroll portion. And obviously them not being taxed would be fantastic. That would give them a raise and give us a little breathing room as well. Margins are tighter as inflation is pushed, the typical consumer’s daily expenses are up, even exponentially.
“There’s always advantages to both sides. I consider myself fiscally conservative. I’m a small business owner. How business principles and laws are applied mean a lot to me and whether I’m able to put a roof over my head as a business owner.
“But on the flip side a lot of times those [conservative] politics are aligned with certain groups that are less socially liberal. I consider myself fiscally conservative, socially liberal – people should do what makes them happy. A conundrum? Certainly.”
It’s an old military acronym meaning ‘F***ed up beyond recognition” or “…beyond repair”.
Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic’s editor in chief, reports he was accidentally added to an encrypted messaging group.
Image: (L-R) US vice president JD Vance, defence secretary Pete Hegseth, and national security adviser Mike Waltz on 13 March. Pic: Reuters
The conversation appeared to include vice president JD Vance, defence secretary Pete Hegseth and national security adviser Mike Waltz.
They were discussing highly sensitive security information relating to an impending attack on Houthi rebels in Yemen.
“I didn’t think it could be real,” writes Goldberg, “… then the bombs started falling”.
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Image: A fighter plane takes off for an operation against the Houthis. Pic: US Centcom/Reuters
Brian Hughes, spokesman for the National Security Council, confirmed the veracity of the Signal group.
“This appears to be an authentic message chain, and we are reviewing how an inadvertent number was added to the chain,” he said.
“Only one word for this: FUBAR,” said Democrat representative Pat Ryan, an army veteran who sits on the armed services committee.
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Trump and his team argue that European countries benefit from US protection of shipping lanes in the Red Sea, a frequent target for attacks.
Goldberg’s initial scepticism is understandable – with participants using emojis like praying hands, the US flag, a fist and a fire, in a highly sensitive military discussion.
“Amateur hour,” said Democrat senator Ruben Gallego, a marine veteran.
JD Vance is less liked among the UK public than Donald Trump, Sir Keir Starmer or any other major UK politician, a new poll shared with Sky News has found.
Just 14% of the British public have a favourable view of the US vice president, compared with 21% for Mr Trump and 29% for the prime minister and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
Ipsos questioned 1,132 adults aged 18 and over across Great Britain online between the 14 and 17 March – just weeks after the heated exchange between Mr Vance, Mr Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House over military assistance to Ukraine.
The poll was carried out before a conversation on the messaging app Signal – between US officials, including the vice president – was accidentally leaked to an American journalist, who was added to the encrypted chat in error.
In the conversation, Mr Vance and other officials – including National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth – discussed plans to conduct airstrikes on Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, which took place on 15 March.
During the discussion, Mr Vance questioned the rationale behind the military action, arguing that attacking the Houthis would largely serve European interests, with the continent benefiting from US protection of shipping lanes in the Red Sea that are a frequent target for attacks
In a message addressed to Mr Hegseth, Mr Vance said: “If you think we should do it let’s go. I just hate bailing Europe out again.”
Mr Hegseth, who had made the case for military action against the Houthis, replied: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. PATHETIC.”
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‘I know nothing’ about leak of military plans
Keiran Pedley, Ipsos director of politics, told Sky News: “It is clear from these numbers that Vance is unpopular with the British public.
“A majority hold an unfavourable view of the vice president, including clear majorities of Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters. Reform UK supporters are more split, with slightly more holding an unfavourable view than a favourable one.”
The leak of the messages to Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic’s editor in chief, has raised concerns about US national security and the Trump’s administration’s attitude towards Europe as it seeks to reach a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine to end the war.
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2:39
Leaked security chat explained
President Trump has dismissed the significance of the accidental leaking of US military intelligence to Mr Goldberg, telling Garrett Haake, a reporter from Sky News’ US partner network NBC, that the journalist was “a sleazeball” and that his presence on the Signal chain had “no impact at all”.
Asked how he came to be added to the chat, Mr Trump said it was one of Mr Waltz’s staffers who “had his number on there”.
Asked if he still had confidence in Waltz, Trump said he did: “Michael Waltz has learned a lesson, and he’s a good man.”
The US president also expressed confidence in his team and supported comments by his defence secretary that the story was a non-issue, arguing it was “the only glitch in two months, and it turned out not to be a serious one”.
Downing Street has also insisted it is confident any UK intelligence shared with the US was being handled appropriately.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said: “The US is our closest ally when it comes to matters of defence, we have a long-standing relationship on intelligence and defence cooperation.
“We will continue to build on the very strong relationship we already have with the US on defence and security matters.”
The Trump administration is facing calls for an investigation after a reporter was accidentally included in a group chat where senior US officials discussed conducting airstrikes on Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.
Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic magazine, was added to a group which included US vice president JD Vance, defence secretary Pete Hegseth, national security adviser Mike Waltz and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
Senior Democrats have been highly critical of the incident. Congressman Jamie Raskin told Sky’s Martha Kelner: “This is such a basic error to be talking about war plans and military strategy in such a sloppy and open and public way.
“Almost certainly there were crimes committed in the process.”
When asked about the use of emojis in the group chat, Mr Raskin said: “It doesn’t surprise me coming from this crowd.”
Mr Goldberg said he had received a connection request on the encrypted messaging service Signal by Mr Waltz on 11 March and was invited to join the “Houthi PC small group” two days later.
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1:08
‘Didn’t believe it was national security chat’
Responding to the report, Mr Trump said “I know nothing about it” and called The Atlantic “not much of a magazine”. He added: “I don’t know anything about it. You’re telling me about it for the first time.”
Speaking to reporters in Hawaii, Mr Hegseth said: “Nobody was texting war plans and that’s all I have to say about that.” He also claimed Mr Goldberg was “peddling garbage”.
Image: Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth in the White House last week. Pic: Reuters
Image: Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic magazine, in 2022. Pic: Reuters
Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called for a full investigation, saying: “This is one of the most stunning breaches of military intelligence I have read about in a very, very long time.”
On 15 March, US airstrikes killed at least 53 people in Yemen in retaliation for Houthi threats to begin targeting “Israeli” ships after Israel blocked aid entering the Gaza Strip. The daily bombardment has continued for the 10 days since then.
When Mr Goldberg initially received a connection request from Mr Waltz, he was sceptical and initially thought “someone could be masquerading as Waltz in order to somehow entrap me”.
Leak raises huge questions about national security
By David Blevins, Sky correspondent in Washington DC
“FUBAR” – that’s one congressman’s response to the jaw-dropping news that Trump officials discussed war plans in a group chat on the Signal app.
It’s an old military acronym meaning ‘F***ed up beyond recognition” or “…beyond repair”.
“Only one word for this: FUBAR,” said Democrat representative Pat Ryan, an army veteran who sits on the armed services committee.
The leak raises huge questions about national security, but legal experts suggest establishing the group on Signal may violate the espionage act.
A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said: “At this time, the message thread that was reported appears to be authentic, and we are reviewing how an inadvertent number was added to the chain.
“The thread is a demonstration of the deep and thoughtful policy coordination between senior officials. The ongoing success of the Houthi operation demonstrates that there were no threats to our service members or our national security.”
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0:43
From 16 March: US launches multiple strikes on Yemen’s Houthis
Image: A US ship fires missiles during the strikes. Pic: US Central Command/Reuters
Group included ‘active intelligence officer’
After he was added to the “Houthi PC small group” on 13 March, Mr Goldberg saw a message from Mr Waltz asking the other members to provide a point of contact “for us to coordinate with over the next couple of days and over the weekend”.
In total, 18 people were part of the group, Mr Goldberg said, including Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s Middle East and Ukraine negotiator, and an “active intelligence officer” whose name he did not publish.
Image: Smoke rises in Yemen’s capital Houthi after US airstrikes. Pic: AP
The next day Mr Waltz texted the group: “Team, you should have a statement of conclusions with taskings per the Presidents [sic] guidance this morning in your high side inboxes,” with “high side” referring to classified computer systems.
“State and DOD [Department of Defence], we developed suggested notification lists for regional Allies and partners. Joint Staff is sending this am [morning] a more specific sequence of events in the coming days and we will work w DOD to ensure COS [chief of staff], OVP [office of the vice president] and POTUS [president of the United States] are briefed.”
Image: Smoke rises from an explosion after a group of buildings were hit during the strikes. Pic: US Central Command/Reuters
‘I think we are making a mistake’, vice president says
Mr Vance, who was at an economic event in Michigan, messaged: “I think we are making a mistake.
“[Three] percent of US trade runs through the [Suez Canal]. 40 percent of European trade does. There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, to send a message.”
He added: “I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now. There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.”
Image: The aftermath of US airstrikes in Yemen’s capital Sanaa. Pic: Reuters
European ‘free-loading’ is ‘PATHETIC’, senior officials say
Later in the conversation, Mr Waltz criticised the limited capabilities of European navies, writing: “Whether it’s now or several weeks from now, it will have to be the United States that reopens these shipping lanes. Per the president’s request we are working with DOD and State to determine how to compile the cost associated and levy them on the Europeans.”
Mr Vance addressed Mr Hegseth in a message reading: “If you think we should do it let’s go. I just hate bailing Europe out again.”
Image: Pics: The Atlantic
Mr Hegseth replied: “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC. But Mike is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this. Nobody else even close. Question is timing. I feel like now is as good a time as any, given POTUS directive to reopen shipping lanes. I think we should go; but POTUS still retains 24 hours of decision space.”
An account believed to be the deputy White House chief of staff, Stephen Miller, then said: “As I heard it, the president was clear: green light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return. We also need to figure out how to enforce such a requirement. EG, if Europe doesn’t remunerate, then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.”
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Messages could ‘harm American military and intelligence personnel’
The next day, the day of the strikes, Mr Goldberg said he saw messages which “if they had been read by an adversary of the United States, could conceivably have been used to harm American military and intelligence personnel”.
“I will say a prayer for victory,” Mr Vance said.
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1:02
Democrat hits out at chat group
Mr Goldberg said after the strikes many of those in the group celebrated with messages including “good job” and “God bless”.
When he realised the messages were real, Mr Goldberg removed himself from the Signal group and emailed several officials in the group for comment.
A spokesperson for Mr Vance replied: “The Vice President’s first priority is always making sure that the President’s advisers are adequately briefing him on the substance of their internal deliberations.
“Vice President Vance unequivocally supports this administration’s foreign policy. The President and the Vice President have had subsequent conversations about this matter and are in complete agreement.”
It comes after Mr Hegseth’s office announced a crackdown on leaking sensitive information.