US election: People’s back pockets are pushing them to the polls in this knife-edge state
“It’s the economy, stupid”. It was back in 1992 when political strategist James Carville coined a phrase that feels to me to be wholly apt again right now.
It was by focusing on the state of the economy that Carville helped Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush 22 years ago.
For headscratchers today wondering why a man so divisive and with so much baggage as Donald Trump could be within a whisker of the White House, it may be that the answer, again, is: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
In suburban North Carolina it doesn’t take long to realise just how much people’s back pockets are pushing them to the polling booth.
Kannapolis is America’s suburbia. It’s middle class, leafy and the polls suggest it’s on a knife edge now, just as it was four years ago.
James Carville coined the phrase, ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ back in 1992 Pic: Reuters
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Back in 2020, Donald Trump won this town’s district by just nine votes. With small gains like this across the state, the former president won North Carolina by a whisker – 1.3%.
You need to go back to Obama in 2008 for the last time the Democrats won this state, then by 14,000 votes. Before that Republicans won here every cycle since 1980.
When Biden was the Democratic Party candidate, the state looked like a lost cause for the Democrats. But replacing him with Kamala Harris flipped the polls. Suddenly it was a state in play. She cut Donald Trump’s sizable lead to neck-and-neck and it remained there.
Shifting demographics, a large African-American community, a growing urban and suburban population all give Democratic Party strategists hope that it’s within reach again. With its sizable 16 electoral college votes, a win here really helps propel either candidate to the 270 needed for victory nationally.
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Cabarrus County is precisely the sort of place that the Republicans need to hold and the Democrats need to swing. I’ve come to the town of Kannapolis.
The train station here, linking it with the metropolis of Charlotte 30 minutes away, is doubling as the polling station and the queue to vote early is an hour long.
All who spoke to us were passionate, thoughtful and reflected the national split that runs down to within families.
But of the issues driving the decisions, one thing dominates almost always: the economy. Inflation is now down, unemployment is down. In many ways the US economy is the envy of the world. But the perception of things and nostalgia for the past runs deep.
On one street in this one town, we spoke to a range of voters in three businesses – a local entrepreneur, a waiter, a restaurant manager, a shop owner and a customer. All three businesses we visited were chosen at random and we’ve included every person we spoke to.
Rylee Mullery, babysitting between jobs
“I would say income taxes and the open border is definitely the biggest issue for me personally. And I feel like it’s just gone downhill since then. So I hope that we can get that fixed by getting the right person in office.
“I went to the store the other day and got a full cart. Usually that costs $150 (£116). It was almost $400 (£309) for a full cart of just regular household needs from toilet paper to laundry detergent, paper towels, things like that. So I hope that that can be solved.
“I’m only 23 years old and it’s nice to know that people my age are finally waking up and seeing what’s actually good for our country.”
William Pasquale, waiter
“Right now everything is just too expensive for even basic needs. For families of four it’s too expensive. They can’t afford groceries right now. Some can’t even afford gas and that’s the way people get around. All these unemployment rates are way higher than they were before and it’s just getting worse and worse.”
Deana Ross, restaurant manager
“In the beginning…. nobody wanted to admit that they were liking him [Trump]… because he is a bit rough around the edges… but he knew what he was doing. And I think this time around, now that we’ve had that four year gap without him and they’ve seen what happened, the scales tipped a little.
Everybody’s like, ‘Oh, maybe he wasn’t that bad’. So I feel like everybody’s changing their mind and their opinion about what kind of a president he is, as opposed to what kind of a person he is.
“The Biden administration really dropped the ball for the country and what’s best for our country. And I feel like Donald Trump might try to improve that like he was trying before.”
Dwayne Jackson, popcorn shop owner
“A lot of people are basing their opinion on gimmicks. So if you’re focusing on the gimmicks and you’re not focusing on what the person’s actually saying, then you’re going to go according to the gimmicks.
“If somebody is running around here with 34 felonies, 34 plus felonies, and they’re still allowed to run for the presidency of the United States, where as if I was to go out here and commit one felony and get convicted of one felony, I could never vote again.
“I don’t like, you know, the name calling because you’re not teaching the children anything. When the kids look at this, we teach our children nothing.”
David Deal, local entrepreneur
“The pledge by both sides to scrap tax on tips is a huge issue for us. It saves us as business owners taxes and their payroll portion. And obviously them not being taxed would be fantastic. That would give them a raise and give us a little breathing room as well. Margins are tighter as inflation is pushed, the typical consumer’s daily expenses are up, even exponentially.
“There’s always advantages to both sides. I consider myself fiscally conservative. I’m a small business owner. How business principles and laws are applied mean a lot to me and whether I’m able to put a roof over my head as a business owner.
“But on the flip side a lot of times those [conservative] politics are aligned with certain groups that are less socially liberal. I consider myself fiscally conservative, socially liberal – people should do what makes them happy. A conundrum? Certainly.”
US
Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they’re also battling with another problem
Stock markets around the world fell on Thursday after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs – with some economists now fearing a recession.
The US president announced tariffs for almost every country – including 10% rates on imports from the UK – on Wednesday evening, sending financial markets reeling.
While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.
Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble
All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.
The S&P 500 is set for its worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. File pic: AP
By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.
Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.
Worst one-day losses since COVID
As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.
It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.
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The latest numbers on tariffs
‘Trust in President Trump’
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.
“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”
Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”
He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.
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How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?
Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’
The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.
He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.
Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.
He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”
Read more:
Do Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff numbers add up?
Tariffs about something more than economics: power
It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.
Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.
It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.
He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”
Tanking stock markets, collapsing world orders, devastating trade wars; economists with their hair ablaze are scrambling to keep up.
But as we try to make sense of Donald Trumps’s tariff tsunami, economic theory only goes so far. In the end this surely is about something more primal.
Power.
Understanding that may be crucial to how the world responds.
Yes, economics helps explain the impact. The world’s economy has after all shifted on its axis, the way it’s been run for decades turned on its head.
Instead of driving world trade, America is creating a trade war. We will all feel the impact.
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PM will ‘fight’ for deal with US
Donald Trump says he is settling scores, righting wrongs. America has been raped, looted and pillaged by the world trading system.
But don’t be distracted by the hyperbole – and if you think this is about economics alone, you may be missing the point.
Above all, tariffs give Donald Trump power. They strike fear into allies and enemies, from governments to corporations.
This is a president who runs his presidency like a medieval emperor or mafia don.
It is one reason why since his election we have seen what one statesman called a conga line of sycophants make their way to the White House, from world leaders to titans of industry.
The conga line will grow longer as they now redouble their efforts hoping to special treatment from Trump’s tariffs. Sir Keir Starmer among them.
President Trump’s using similar tactics at home, deploying presidential power to extract concessions and deter dissent in corporate America, academia and the US media. Those who offer favours are spared punishment.
His critics say he seeks a form power for the executive or presidential branch of government that the founding fathers deliberately sought to prevent.
Whether or not that is true, the same playbook of divide and rule through intimidation can now be applied internationally. Thanks to tariffs
Each country will seek exceptions but on Trump’s terms. Those who retaliate may meet escalation.
This is the unforgiving calculus for governments including our own plotting their next moves.
The temptation will be to give Trump whatever he wants to spare their economies, but there is a jeopardy that compounds the longer this goes on.
Read more:
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?
Trump hits island home only to penguins with 10% tariffs
Could America’s traditional allies turn to China? Pic: AP
Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister who coined the conga line comparison, put it this way: “Pretty much all the international leaders I have seen that have sucked up to Trump have been run over. The reality is if you suck up to bullies, whether it’s global affairs or in the playground, you just get more bullying.”
Trading partners may be able to mitigate the impact of these tariffs through negotiation, but that may only encourage this unorthodox president to demand ever more?
Ultimately the world will need a more reliable superpower than that.
In the hands of such a president, America cannot be counted on.
When it comes to security, stability and prosperity, allies will need to fend for themselves.
And they will need new friends. If Washington can’t be relied on, Beijing beckons.
America First will, more and more, mean America on its own.
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