‘I’m never going to stop’: Inside Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers’ march to a title that solidified their dominant era
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
NEW YORK — Two days before the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ postseason began, Freddie Freeman felt a twinge in his rib cage when he took a swing during a simulated game. He vowed to ignore it. It’s not as if he wasn’t already in pain. Over the previous week, Freeman had nursed a sprained right ankle sustained trying to avoid a tag while running to first base. He needed no more impediments. The Dodgers had a World Series to win.
A day later, Oct. 4, after Freeman finished a news conference in which he declared himself ready to play despite the ankle injury, he retreated to the batting cage at Dodger Stadium. He wanted to take some swings in preparation for a live batting-practice session. His side tingled with each of his first dozen swings. On the 13th swing, Freeman felt a jolt through his body and crumpled to the ground.
Unable to even pick himself off the floor, Freeman was helped into the X-ray room next to Los Angeles’ dugout. The results were inconclusive, and around 9:30 p.m., he received a call. The Dodgers wanted him to drive to Santa Monica for more imaging. He hopped in the car, then in an MRI tube. Around 11:30 p.m., the results arrived: Freeman had broken the costal cartilage in his sixth rib, an injury that typically sidelines players for months.
Devastation set in. Walking hurt. Breathing stung. Swinging a bat felt like an impossibility.
Freeman’s father, Fred, worried about his youngest son, whom he raised after Freeman’s mother, Rosemary, died of melanoma when Freddie was 10. He saw the anguish in every minuscule movement. Considering the injuries to his rib and ankle and the lasting soreness from a middle finger he fractured in August, surely Freeman was too beaten up to keep playing. Surely there would be more postseasons, more opportunities.
“I actually told him to stop,” Fred said. “I said, ‘Freddie, this is not worth it. I know you love baseball. I love baseball. But it’s not worth what you’re going through.’ And he looked at me like I was crazy, and he said, ‘Dad, I’m never going to stop.'”
NOT ONLY DID Freeman never stop, he put on one of the Dodgers’ greatest Fall Classic performances in history and readied the franchise for its first victory parade in 36 years.
The championship was won in a Game 5 that saw the Dodgers stake the New York Yankees a five-run lead, claw back for a 7-6 victory thanks to one of the most horrific half-innings in the Yankees’ storied history, and seal the championship with bravura performances from their bullpen and manager.
Los Angeles never got to fete the Dodgers for their World Series victory in 2020. Beyond the lack of a celebration, the title had been demeaned and denigrated by those who regarded it as a lesser championship, the product of a 60-game season played in front of no fans and a postseason run inside a pseudo-bubble. To the Dodgers, that always registered as unfair, and they used the slight as fuel.
“Twenty-nine other teams wanted to win the last game, too, regardless of the circumstances,” said right-hander Walker Buehler, who pitched the ninth inning of Game 5 to close the series for the Dodgers. “Like, everyone that talks about it, fine. … But 29 other professional, billion-dollar organizations would’ve liked to have won the last one. And we did.”
Los Angeles’ fortunes in recent postseasons have belied its evolution into the best organization in baseball. This season, the Dodgers won a major-leagues-best 98 games and their 11th National League West division title in 12 years. Their only championship in that time came in 2020. The Dodgers felt as if they had a World Series stolen from them in 2017 by a Houston Astros team later found to have used a sign-stealing scheme. A juggernaut Boston Red Sox team bulldozed them in five games a year later. The past two years, Los Angeles flamed out in first-round division series.
The Dodgers wanted this championship for so many reasons beyond the obvious. Regardless of a baseball team’s talent or payroll — both areas in which this team finds itself at the game’s apex — October is a baseball funhouse mirror. A team fat on ability can look waifish in a hurry. The short series, the odd schedule, the capacity for a lesser team to beat a better one simply because it gets hot at the right time — all of it conspires to render April through September inert. Teams built for the six-month marathon that is the regular season aren’t necessarily well-constructed for the postseason’s one-month sprint. A team’s ability to code-switch is its greatest quality.
This year, Los Angeles craved validation for its regular-season dominance. Something to silence those who malign its 2020 championship and chalk up its success not to sound decision-making processes and elite player development but an endless flow of cash. The Dodgers cannot deny the power of the dollar after guaranteeing $700 million in free agency to star designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and another $325 million to Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ohtani hit 54 home runs and stole 59 bases during the regular season. Yamamoto threw six brilliant innings in his first World Series game. Money plays.
“World Series champions come in all different sizes and shapes and forms,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “And there are different strengths that help you win a World Series.”
Their lineup was an obvious one. Even a hobbled Freeman is still an eight-time All-Star — and a former MVP, just like the two men ahead of him in the lineup, Ohtani and Mookie Betts. The Dodgers led major league baseball in home runs and slugging percentage while finishing second in runs scored and on-base percentage . For all the depth the Dodgers’ lineup featured, though, the pitching staff was threadbare on account of a mess of injuries. With just three starting pitchers and a half-dozen trusted relievers — not to mention the necessity of throwing bullpen games, further taxing arms — Los Angeles required a deft touch with its pitching.
Championships take luck and timing and depth and open-mindedness and savvy. World Series are won as much on the margins as they are in the core. And every championship team features something beyond that, a separator, a je ne sais quoi. Like, say, a starter suffering through his worst season emerging to close out a World Series game. Or someone who refuses to let his broken body impede a quest so meaningful to those who rely on him.
IN 2005, WHEN Freddie Freeman was 15 years old, he was hit by a pitch that broke his wrist. Freeman was scheduled to play for Team USA’s 16-and-under national team, and he couldn’t let the opportunity pass. So he simply didn’t tell anyone about his wrist injury and gritted through the agony.
Almost two decades later, Freeman started Game 1 of the division series against San Diego without publicly divulging his broken rib cartilage. Even the slightest competitive advantage can separate win from loss, and Freeman understood the sort of challenge the Padres posed. They had constructed their roster for postseason baseball: heavy on power hitters and front-line bullpen arms, light on offensive swing-and-miss. San Diego ousted the Dodgers from the postseason in 2022 and was prepared to do the same in 2024.
The Dodgers cherished Freeman’s presence, even if he was playing at far less than 100 percent. Their manager, Dave Roberts, told Freeman that simply standing in the batter’s box imputed a particular sort of value: the fear of the unknown. If Freeman were healthy enough to play, opponents would figure, surely he could contribute, too. What San Diego didn’t know was that every time Freeman strode to fire his compact, powerful left-handed swing, his right ankle felt as if it was about to buckle. And when he whiffed on a pitch, his side screamed silently.
“It only hurts when I miss,” Freeman told his father. “So I’m just going to have to stop missing.”
In the first game of the series, with his midsection bound by kinesiology tape to stabilize it, Freeman laced a pair of singles. The limp in his running drew attention away from the rib. When he winced after swing-and-misses — Freeman did so four times in Game 1 of the NLDS — the ankle served as an ideal cover for the actual nerve center of the pain: his rib. After winning the first game, Los Angeles dropped the next two to the Padres, and his symptoms worsened.
“Every day,” Dodgers hitting coach Aaron Bates said, “I would ask: ‘How’s your ankle? How’s your rib? How’s your finger? How’s your brain?'”
The 2024 season already had strained Freeman’s psyche. In late July, his 3-year-old son, Maximus, was diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome, a neurological disorder that necessitated the use of a ventilator and left him unable to walk for a period. Freeman left the Dodgers during the final week of July to take care of Max. Although Freeman returned in early August, when Max was discharged from the hospital and started his recovery, the detritus of the episode remained.
Freeman and his wife, Chelsea, carved days into pieces. Wake up. Get to the afternoon. Then the evening. Then the morning. And repeat.
“It was more just breaking things up, all those small things just to get yourself through,” Chelsea said.
“Never think big picture,” Fred said.
“And then you look back,” Chelsea said, “and you’re like, ‘Oh, my gosh, we can’t believe we went through all that.'”
The perspective helped when the pain in Freeman’s rib would not relent. After Game 3, Freeman listened to Fred. No matter how much treatment he received, how much doctors and trainers did to mask the pain, he needed a break. But to require it in an elimination game — he was despondent. Freeman had signed with the Dodgers on a six-year, $162 million free agent contract in 2022 after a protracted free agency. He joined them following a World Series-winning season with the Atlanta Braves, where he spent the first 12 years of his career. Losing in the division series for the third straight year was not an option. Losing to the Padres again was unthinkable.
When his teammates learned Freeman would sit out Game 4, they rallied around him in the team’s group chat. Kiké Hernández, Miguel Rojas, Max Muncy, Betts — they were in awe of Freeman and what he had done already and offered their appreciation. He had rescued them so many times. They would resuscitate the Dodgers’ season in his absence. The offense scored eight runs, and eight Dodgers relievers combined to shut San Diego out. Two days later, with Freeman back in the lineup, Yamamoto threw five scoreless innings, the bullpen added four more and the Dodgers surged into the NL Championship Series against the New York Mets.
Once there, Freeman struggled, mustering only three singles in 18 at-bats and sitting out Game 4 again. The rest of the Dodgers thrived. Ohtani and Betts each whacked a pair of home runs. Muncy, a remnant of the 2020 team, set a postseason record by reaching base in 12 consecutive at-bats. Tommy Edman hit .407, drove in 11 runs and won NLCS MVP as the Dodgers bounced the Mets in six games. They were off to another World Series, another opportunity to substantiate their belief in themselves, where they would face their American League analog in prestige and might: the New York Yankees.
“Freddie doesn’t complain about really anything,” Chelsea said. “He was getting over four hours of treatment a day, even on days that they weren’t playing, just to be able to hope to play in the postseason. So going into the World Series, we had no expectations. We just were hoping he’d be able to play.”
HAD THE DODGERS deposed the Mets in five games, the World Series would have started Oct. 22, two days after the conclusion of the NLCS. Instead, the Dodgers had four days off, and in that time something happened. On Oct. 21, the day after Los Angeles celebrated its NL pennant, Freeman rested. On Oct. 22, he went through his usual treatment routine and felt noticeably better. By Oct. 23, the respite and therapy felt as if they were making a demonstrable difference in his recovery. On Oct. 24, the day before Game 1 of the most anticipated World Series in years, Freeman and the Dodgers’ staff had identified a cue to unlock the power that had gone missing in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Freeman would tell himself to stride more toward first base. In actuality, he was not doing so; it would leave him vulnerable to outside pitches, which he had made a Hall of Fame career shooting to the opposite field. The idea of doing so, though, prevented Freeman from hunching over as he swung. A more vertical stance, in theory, would allow Freeman to drive the fastballs that had eaten him up in the NLCS, when he went 2-for-13 against them.
“Dad,” Freeman told Fred, “my swing is back. It’s as good as it’s been all year.”
Fred had heard this plenty of times before. Sometimes his son was right; sometimes he wasn’t. Fred wanted to be optimistic. He needed to see it to believe it.
In the first inning of Game 1, against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, Freeman sliced a curveball down the left-field line and motored toward second base. New York left fielder Alex Verdugo misplayed the ball, an early sign of the state of the Yankees’ defense, and Freeman kept running. He chugged into third base, slid, popped up, stared into the Dodgers’ dugout, lifted his arms and shook side to side — the original version of what has become known as the Freddie Dance, a celebration adopted by all the Dodgers for big hits.
At the end of the inning, Freeman was left stranded on third base, his ankle throbbing. While the tenderness in his rib area had abated somewhat and his finger felt good enough to throw the ball normally, the 270 feet of running from home to third reminded Freeman that Humpty Dumpty hadn’t been put back together entirely. He tried to joke about it — Freeman occasionally asked Dodgers assistant general manager Alex Slater: “Can we trade ankles?” — but his hobbling was a serious reminder that the between-series break was over.
What unfolded that night constituted one of the best opening games in World Series history. Cole and Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty traded scoreless frames until the Dodgers scored a run in the fifth. The Yankees answered with two in the sixth. Los Angeles tied the score in the eighth. And on to extra innings it went, with New York scratching across a run in the top of the 10th. In the bottom of the inning, Gavin Lux walked with one out. Edman — like Flaherty a trade-deadline acquisition — singled. Yankees manager Aaron Boone called on left-hander Nestor Cortes, who hadn’t pitched in more than five weeks due to an arm injury, to face Ohtani. He induced a flyout.
Boone then intentionally walked Betts to load the bases and face Freeman. Cortes challenged him with a 93 mph fastball on the inside corner, the sort for which his cue was made. He swung, took two steps and lifted his bat with his right hand, Los Angeles’ version of Lady Liberty. The ball flew seven rows into the right-field bleachers. Dodger Stadium shook. Roberts was so giddy reveling in the moment that he bumped into the right arm of Gavin Stone, the young right-hander who two weeks earlier had undergone major shoulder surgery.
In the 119 previous years of World Series games, 695 in all, never had a player hit a walk-off grand slam. Freeman doing so in Game 1, then shambling around the bases invoking memories of Kirk Gibson 36 years earlier — the last time Los Angeles won a full-season World Series — added a poetic touch to the night, one of the most memorable in Dodgers postseason history.
“Game 1, when he hit the grand slam, felt like we won the World Series,” Chelsea said. “Like we were going to win.”
While Chelsea knows baseball well enough to understand it’s never that easy, in the next few games, Freddie continued to make it look so. He blasted another home run off a fastball in a Game 2 win. His two-run, first-inning shot on a high inside 93 mph Clarke Schmidt cutter in Game 3 gave the Dodgers a lead they held for their second consecutive 4-2 victory. For the series’ first three games, Freeman was single-handedly carrying the Dodgers’ offense, just the way it had collectively carried him through the NLCS. Muncy was hitless. Betts cooled down. And Ohtani partially dislocated his shoulder sliding into second base during Game 2 and was never a factor in the series.
The presence of Ohtani, who had absconded from the Los Angeles Angels in pursuit of a championship, as well as that of Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, had turned this World Series into a supersized event — but Freeman was the one owning it. He hit another two-run shot in the first inning of Game 4, marking an MLB-record sixth consecutive World Series game with a home run, his streak dating back to 2021 with Atlanta. The Dodgers’ attempt at a sweep fizzled with a third-inning grand slam by Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe and eventually turned into an 11-4 blowout, not exactly a surprise considering Roberts stayed away from using his best relievers in hopes of keeping them fresh for a potential Game 5.
Game 4 marked the Dodgers’ fourth all-bullpen effort of the postseason, a staggering number for a team with as much talent as Los Angeles. Consider the names on L.A.’s injured list come October. Longtime ace and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw made only seven starts before a toe injury ended his season. Tyler Glasnow, acquired to help anchor the rotation over the winter, never returned from a mid-August elbow injury. Stone, the Dodgers’ best starter this season, was out. So was Dustin May after an esophageal tear. Emmet Sheehan, River Ryan and Tony Gonsolin all were on the shelf following Tommy John surgery, and the Dodgers had signed Ohtani, MLB’s first two-way player in nearly a century, knowing he wouldn’t pitch in 2024 because of elbow reconstruction.
Losing a rotation-and-a-half worth of starting pitchers would have torpedoed any other team. Los Angeles had figured out how to weather the deficiency, with Roberts and pitching coach Mark Prior puppeteering their 13-man pitching staff without excessive fatigue or overexposure to Yankees hitters. It was a delicate balance, one they feared could collapse if Game 5 went the wrong way.
AROUND 3 P.M. on Wednesday, Walker Buehler boarded the Dodgers’ team bus to Yankee Stadium, looked at general manager Brandon Gomes and said: “I’m good tonight if you need me.” Two nights earlier, Buehler had spun magic in Game 3, shutting down New York in five scoreless innings. He was scheduled to throw a between-starts bullpen session; if he needed to forgo it to instead throw in a World Series game, he was ready.
Buehler is 30 and coming off the worst regular season of his career, winning just one of his 16 starts and posting a 5.38 ERA. He missed all of 2023 after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery and returned a much lesser version of the cocksure right-hander whose postseason badassery earned him a reputation as one of baseball’s finest big-game pitchers. His fastball lacked life and his breaking balls sharpness, and with free agency beckoning, Buehler had looked positively ordinary.
This was October, though, and the month has always brought out something different in him. He dotted his fastball in all four quadrants of the strike zone in Game 3, flummoxing Yankees hitters. It revved past them with the sort of carry he displayed over four shutout innings against the Mets in the NLCS. Back, too, was Buehler’s self-assuredness. Just in case Gomes and the rest of the Dodgers’ staff didn’t understand what he meant, Buehler reiterated at the stadium: “If things get a little squirrelly, then I’ll be ready.”
The game was all Yankees to start. Judge hit his first home run of the series in the first inning. Jazz Chisholm Jr. followed with another. An RBI single from Verdugo in the second inning chased Flaherty after he had recorded just four outs. For the second consecutive night, Roberts would need to lean on his bullpen. He went into break-glass-in-case-of-emergency mode. Left-hander Anthony Banda escaped a bases-loaded jam in the second. Ryan Brasier allowed a third-inning leadoff home run to Giancarlo Stanton. Michael Kopech pitched the fourth and wriggled out of a first-and-second-with-one-out situation.
In the meantime, Cole was cruising. He held the Dodgers hitless through four innings. Hernández broke that streak with a leadoff single in the fifth. Edman lined a ball to center that clanked off Judge’s glove, his first error on a fly ball since 2017. After Volpe fielded a ground ball and tried to nab the lead runner at third, Hernández almost Eurostepped into his throwing lane, a brilliant bit of baserunning that illustrated the difference between Los Angeles’ and New York’s fundamentals. Volpe bounced the throw for a second error in the inning, loading the bases.
Cole bore down, striking out Lux and Ohtani, and Betts squibbed a ball at 49.8 mph toward Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Even with the English spinning the ball away from the first-base bag, Rizzo likely could have tagged first to end the inning. He expected to flip the ball to Cole, who anticipated Rizzo would take the out himself. Once Rizzo realized Cole had not covered the bag, he shuffled toward first. Betts beat him there, and the mental blunder gave the Dodgers their first run of the day.
Freeman served a single on an inner-third, two-strike, 99.5 mph fastball — the hardest pitch Cole threw all season — to center for two more runs. And on another 1-2 pitch that caught too much of the plate, Teoscar Hernandez drove the ball 404 feet to center field. Because it hopped against the wall instead of over it, Freeman hauled all the way from first to home. Just like that, a 5-0 advantage had evaporated into a 5-5 tie.
Yankee Stadium, minutes earlier a madhouse, flatlined. Buehler had adjourned to the weight room, loosening his arm with a yellow plyometric ball. He saw Slater, who works out during the game to calm his nerves.
“Is it squirrelly yet?” Buehler asked.
It was squirrelly, all right. Friedman had come downstairs to consult with the rest of the front office about the logistics of finding a lie-flat airplane seat to fly Yamamoto back to Los Angeles ahead of the team for a potential Game 6. Now, instead of expending energy on that, they focused on how the Dodgers would possibly secure the final 15 outs of the game if they could steal a lead.
Inside the dugout, Roberts and Prior were doing the same. They were counting on left-hander Alex Vesia for more than one inning. With his pitch count run to 23 after weathering a bases-loaded situation by getting Gleyber Torres to fly out to right field, Vesia was done after the fifth. Buehler had returned to the dugout, and Prior asked whether he had thrown all day. No, Buehler said. He offered his services to Roberts, who told him to head to the bullpen, which he did at 10:08 p.m. When Buehler arrived, he saw Brent Honeywell, whose 7⅔ innings in the NLCS had helped keep the Dodgers’ bullpen fresh, and Joe Kelly, the veteran not on the roster because of an injury.
“What the f— are you doing here?” Honeywell said.
“I just came out here to hang with you and Joe,” Buehler said.
Brusdar Graterol, the Dodgers’ sixth pitcher of the night, walked the first two hitters in the sixth and allowed the Yankees to take a 6-5 lead on a Stanton sacrifice fly. After a third walk left runners on first and second, Roberts summoned Blake Treinen, the Dodgers’ best reliever, to face Volpe, who grounded out to second on a full count.
“I owed it to them to exhaust every possible resource to give them the best chance to win the game,” Roberts said. “At that point, I’m just counting outs.”
The math was not in his favor. Left in the bullpen were the Game 4 starter, rookie Ben Casparius, and Honeywell, who had gotten tagged for four runs the previous night, along with veteran Daniel Hudson, who had surrendered Volpe’s grand slam. Treinen took care of the seventh in order, and the Dodgers greeted Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle rudely, loading the bases with two singles and a four-pitch walk. Boone signaled for closer Luke Weaver, who had pitched in Games 3 and 4, and he worked the count full before Lux lofted a sacrifice fly to center field. Ohtani reloaded the bases on another error via catcher’s interference before the second sac fly of the inning, from Betts, gave Los Angeles a 7-6 advantage.
Roberts was ready. About 20 minutes earlier, Buehler had thrown five balls to the bullpen catcher to ensure his arm would be ready. It felt fresh. Hudson began warming up as well, and Buehler later rejoined him. Roberts wanted to stick with Treinen as long as he could, and the decision looked fateful after Judge doubled and Chisholm walked. Roberts, not Prior, walked to the mound. A pitching change seemed imminent. He considered putting Hudson into the game to face Stanton, whose seven home runs this October set a Yankees postseason record.
Roberts did not realize that Hudson’s forearm was screaming as he warmed up. Hudson had fashioned a 15-year major league career despite two Tommy John surgeries within one calendar year from 2012 to 2013, typically a career ender for pitchers. Forearm tightness is a telltale sign of elbow troubles, and Hudson foresaw catastrophe if Roberts called on him to pitch.
“If Doc brought me in,” Hudson said, “I was going to blow out again.”
When Roberts arrived at the mound, he put his hands on Treinen’s chest.
“I just wanted to feel his heartbeat and just kind of look him in the eye and say, ‘What do you got?'” Roberts said. “And he said, ‘I want him.’ And so I said, ‘All right, you got this hitter.’ Because my intention was for him to get one hitter.”
On a middle-middle first-pitch sinker, Stanton sent a lazy fly ball to short right field. Roberts planned to hook Treinen there. Treinen avoided eye contact with Roberts. Out of the corner of his eye, Roberts saw Freeman.
“I give Freddie credit,” Roberts said. “Freddie was waving me off. He kind of subtly kind of said, ‘Hey, let him stay in.’ So then I trusted the players, and Blake made a pitch.”
He struck out Rizzo on a backfoot slider, his 42nd pitch of the night, and bounded off the mound and into the dugout, lead secure. Roberts knew his next move. He was going to use his projected Game 7 starter as his Game 5 closer and win the damn World Series.
When the bullpen door swung open in the ninth inning and Buehler jogged to the mound, his wife, McKenzie, sitting in the stands, started to sob. Their baby daughter, Finley, was asleep on McKenzie’s shoulder, and the tension of the moment was eating at her, and the tears didn’t stop — not after Volpe grounded out to third, not after Austin Wells swung over a full-count curveball and not after Verdugo flailed at a 77.5 mph curveball in the dirt that won the Dodgers a World Series that 29 other professional, billion-dollar organizations would’ve liked to have won.
Buehler exulted. His teammates swarmed him. Every time the Dodgers win a series, Buehler fetches his phone, opens Instagram and captions a triumphant photo with the same two words, all caps: WHO ELSE. He means the Dodgers, yes, but there’s more to it, this manifestation of the best version of himself in October, something with which Freeman and his fellow champions are familiar.
“That’s how I feel about myself,” Buehler said. “Who else is going to do it? Who else is going to be out there? Who else is supposed to do this? We’ve got 30 guys that believe that same way. And I was just the one in the spot to do it.”
ADRENALINE STILL FLOWING, booze serving as a mighty analgesic, Freddie Freeman walked around the Dodgers’ clubhouse around 2 a.m. with only a slight limp and little sign of pain in his side. He sheathed his middle finger because the Dodgers had given theirs to all of those who called 2020 a Mickey Mouse title and suggested they couldn’t win a real one.
“He couldn’t even walk two days ago,” Chelsea said. “Getting out of bed, literally yesterday, he looked like he was 100 years old.”
On Wednesday night, into Thursday morning, onto the plane ride back to Los Angeles, Freeman felt like a kid. Like Ohtani, Freeman came to Los Angeles for this. To win. To feel greatness. If the price of that is the return of pain that eventually will subside, he gladly paid it.
“I gave myself to the game, to the field,” Freeman said. “I did everything I could to get onto that field. And that’s why this is really, really sweet. I’m proud of the fact that I gave everything I could to this team and I left it all out there. That’s all I try to do every single night. When I go home and put my head on that pillow, I ask if I gave everything I had that night. And usually it’s a yes. One hundred percent of the time it’s a yes. But this one was a little bit sweeter because I went through a lot. My teammates appreciated it. The organization appreciated it. And to end it with a championship makes all the trying times before games, what I put myself through to get on the field, worth it.”
He did it for Buehler, who walked around shirtless inside the clubhouse and on the field, trying and failing to avoid champagne-and-beer showers, including one from Ohtani that doused the cigar in Buehler’s mouth. “Shohei,” he said. “This is a Cuban!” Buehler beamed at what he had done — what they had done — to fortify the external validation the Dodgers had held internally for four years.
“I still very much see this as the second one. I don’t see them very differently,” Buehler said. “But do it on the road, in New York, against the Yankees. It’s emphatic.”
He did it for Kiké Hernández, who, with the flag of Puerto Rico wrapped around his shoulders, said: “What are they going to say now? That this one doesn’t count?” And for Ohtani, who knows how hard baseball is more than anyone and still had the temerity to say: “Let’s do this nine more times.” And for everyone else in the organization, including Kershaw, who at 36 has been with the Dodgers organization for half his life.
Just after the presentation of the commissioner’s trophy on the field, Kershaw looked at his 9-year-old daughter, Cali, and tried to explain that they were finally going to get their parade, the one COVID-19 stole from them.
“All the people get to celebrate,” Kershaw said. “Isn’t that awesome?”
“Are you crying?” Cali said.
“No, I’m not crying,” Kershaw said. “Happy tears. Happy tears. OK. I’m done crying. I’m done crying.”
He stopped and looked around. Kershaw wants to pitch again, for the Dodgers, because however others view the organization, it represents home.
“I stopped caring about what other people that weren’t a part of it thought a long time ago,” Kershaw said. “It felt real to me. So I’m going to always have that one. But we get to have a parade. We’re going to get to do a parade in L.A. on Friday. Basically a culmination of those two championships. It’s going to be incredible. I’ve always wanted to have a parade. I’ve always wanted to do that. I feel like I missed out on it in 2020. So I think it’s going to be pretty awesome.”
Freeman did it for himself, too. For him, this is just the beginning. Some of the injured starters will return next season, and the Dodgers will enter the season as favorites to become the first back-to-back World Series winners since the Yankees won three straight championships from 1998 to 2000. Brian Cashman was the general manager of those teams, and he walked through the bowels of Yankee Stadium to the Dodgers’ clubhouse to congratulate Friedman. While he was waiting, Freeman walked by.
“Congrats, man,” Cashman said. “Hell of a series.”
It was. Maybe not the dream series of seven games or even the last one in which the Dodgers and Yankees met for a title. That one, in 1981, lasted six games, with the first five all decided by three or fewer runs, and was also won by the Dodgers. It included a Game 3 started by Fernando Valenzuela, the Dodgers legend who died last week. His presence will be felt on Friday — what would have been his 64th birthday — along the 45-minute parade route, a celebration of all things Dodgers.
The merriment Wednesday stretched deep into the night. On the clubhouse speakers, Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” played, an appropriate soundtrack. The Padres weren’t. The Mets weren’t. The Yankees weren’t.
Nobody is like these Dodgers, champions of the baseball world.
Sports
MLB playoff mega-preview: World Series odds, likely MVPs and how far all 8 remaining teams will go
The 2025 MLB playoffs are rolling along!
After the wild-card round ended with a trio of Game 3s, the division series matchups are set with all four Game 1s starting Saturday.
Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Is this the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally get to the Fall Classic? Will the Philadelphia Phillies make another deep run after a strong regular season?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all — or go home early — and a name to watch for on all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
Series outlooks | Schedule | Bracket | ESPN BET
Jump to a team:
TOR | SEA | NYY | DET
MIL | PHI | LAD | CHC
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-68 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Yankees (47.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.0% | ESPN BET Odds: +750
Team temperature: 91°
Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out, and they field as cleanly as any team in the postseason field. Toronto has scuffled lately, yes, and the culprit is a punchless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the game’s best units in runs scored as well as wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to mash their way past teams. They’ll need good pitching, and while there isn’t a clear ace or lockdown bullpen piece, they have droves of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence isn’t accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is quite the excellent predictor of success. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At age 35, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach by focusing more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate stable anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, hitting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and winning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season centered around putting the ball in play and not striking out while still featuring some power. But that pop vanished down the stretch before turning it on the final weekend. Their struggles correspond with Bo Bichette going on the injured list with a sprained knee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who hasn’t been cleared to begin running. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will hold a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July and August, pretty good in the other months, and on the whole, has allowed way too many home runs and absorbed way too many blown saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will rest largely on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Three true outcomes baseball got you down? Tune in to some Blue Jays baseball to fulfill all of your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play in 81.7% of its plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an AL team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers (51.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +550
Team temperature: 88°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is replete with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven shutout frames. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they’ve got the Big Dumper. Regardless of his might this year, Cal Raleigh himself can’t carry an entire team, which is why it’s nice to have Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup, too. And as long as Bryan Woo remains healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo might be the best in the postseason. Finish off with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Munoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodriguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the more obvious choice, but after his historic power season, it’s possible teams will pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the final two-plus months and bats after Raleigh in the lineup. Throw in some spectacular center-field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since … well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … Woo’s injury is a real issue. The All-Star, who exited his start on Sept. 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and he’s responded well from treatment, but Woo will go into the postseason without having pitched in a game in over two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA over 30 starts. He is critical to their World Series chances. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers. And in 2025, he cemented that by making his first All-Star team, the high point of a regular season in which he won 15 games, posted a 2.94 ERA, compiled 186⅔ innings and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that didn’t find itself until recently. Woo exited his last start with pectoral tightness. The hope is he’ll be good to go for the playoffs. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Behold the historic firsts … or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run ticker rolls back to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he’ll still attract plenty of attention, that number zero looms large over the Mariners’ franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the ALCS, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland — possible obstacles this year as well. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 94-68 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Red Sox in three games
Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (52.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +475
Team temperature: 115°
Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that’s not going to be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement it with a lineup of hitters who, even taking out Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would rank seventh in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around him. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have one of the game’s best starting pairs, and their relief pitching is showing good signs over the past week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting homers, they’ll be tough to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular-season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 over his past three postseasons across 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he’s certainly due for a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … relievers don’t perform to their track records. The names in New York’s bullpen pop: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. All four have been successful closers at the major league level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since adding Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half proved its floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their last road game of the regular season, collecting four hits, including the 10th-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will find himself in it often in October, whether he’s at first base or behind the plate. This lineup seems deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power.” — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Well, let’s face it, you root for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them around. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally goes off in October, it’s just good, solid baseball history that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Guardians in three games
ALDS opponent: Mariners (48.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 7.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +1200
Team temperature: 57°
Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the AL. Recent travails notwithstanding, this is a good baseball team, and even with a number of pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth — and in manager A.J. Hinch the acumen — to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball the past two seasons and one hell of an assignment for the Mariners if they have to face him twice in a five-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the slugging of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson shows up, find top-level form from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too long not knowing the feeling. –– Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the past 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels have won the award in the past 20 postseasons. So maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and the strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some big home runs. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t carry its weight. Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, recorded a 2.42 ERA in four September starts. And yet the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was still a bloated 4.84. That helps explain the team’s near-monumental collapse, though the offense and bullpen didn’t help matters. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, did not pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their ALDS roster. It marked his first season back from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never truly felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with help from a solid enough September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly blowing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters are going to have to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to prove he can. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the nosediving Tigers, who squeaked into the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only AL contender in a late-season free fall. Detroit’s .291 September winning percentage doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented reversal.. Only 10 eventual champs have sported a last-month winning percentage under .500. The worst was the .414 mark (12-17) of the 2006 Cardinals — who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 97-65 | NL Central champs
NLDS opponent: Cubs (56.2% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +750
Team temperature: 67°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve been the best team in baseball over six months. In the modern game, that takes a blend of depth, player development and fidelity to an ethos that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, unstack it and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play — disciplined and smart and fully bought-in — is an enviable brand of baseball. They’re a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, sure. But really fun because they bully without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in today’s game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There’s always the chance that a consistently winning team never makes the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ over 111 (and two more over 100), the NL-best 164 steals, the glovework that’s among the best in MLB by every publicly available defensive metric — it makes sense. They’re the best for a reason. So why would that change? — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Brice Turang is no longer just a slick-fielding second baseman with speed. He has added power this season, especially in the second half — during which he’s slugged over .500. He hits righties and lefties, does a good job of not chasing out of the zone and can pound fastballs. Oh, and he hit .364 with runners in scoring position. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … their lack of power catches up with them. Runs are often scarce in October when teams maximize deploying their best pitchers. And while manufacturing them by any means necessary is the goal, hitting home runs is an indicator of October success. The only team to finish outside the top nine in home runs for a season and reach the World Series over the past five years was the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers, meanwhile, finished this season tied for 21st in home runs with Christian Yelich’s 29 leading the way. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The hype that surrounded Jacob Misiorowski at midseason, prompting a surprising All-Star appearance despite fewer than 30 career major league innings, has since faded. In nine starts since then, his ERA is 5.45. He’s no longer good enough to crack the Brewers’ postseason rotation. Not yet, anyway. The team, though, is considering using him out of the bullpen, and that’s when things could get really interesting. Misiorowski captivated the nation because he possessed some of the sport’s most devastating stuff despite taking on the workload of a starting pitcher. Out of the bullpen, that triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would certainly play, especially in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Brewers are one of the three teams in this year’s field — along with the Mariners and Padres — hunting for their first title. But this was the best regular season in Milwaukee’s history, and for the first time since 1982, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with the best record in MLB. Intangibly, this is perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing team to watch, featuring flashy defenders, a number of high-volume base stealers and a lot of balls in play. In other words, the reasons to watch and root for the Brew Crew are many. It would be much harder to identify reasons you would not want to root for them. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 96-66 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Dodgers (49.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +475
Team temperature: 90°
Why they can win the World Series: Kyle Schwarber is made for October, and he will hold court, along with Bryce Harper, Cristopher Sanchez, Jhoan Duran and the rest of the cavalcade, in front of the most raucous crowd in baseball at Citizens Bank Park. Those are the featured players, but the Phillies’ run could hinge on their four starters’ capacity to go deep into games. The bullpen is top-heavy, and the top is good, but if they aren’t scared off by the third time through the order like so many others, the Phillies can ride their rotation far. Schwarber and Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances and are two of the best playoff performers of their generation. If the Phillies can hit some timely home runs — eight others on the roster reached double-digit homers — their case, already perhaps the most compelling in baseball, gets that much stronger. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: We have two logical choices here: Schwarber and Harper. Both have been outstanding in the playoffs. Schwarber has a .906 OPS and 21 home runs in 69 games, and Harper has a 1.016 OPS and 17 home runs in 53 games. Schwarber, of course, had a monster regular season. Let’s go with Harper, though. He knows how to lock in for October better than any other active hitter, and with time possibly running out on this aging Phillies team, it might be now or never for Harper to win a World Series. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … Trea Turner doesn’t quickly find his rhythm. Turner was placed on the injured list because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain Sept. 8. He was activated Friday and played in Sunday’s season finale. The Phillies’ offense hummed without Turner behind Schwarber’s continued dominance of opposing pitchers, but October is a different beast, and Turner is an elite talent who could change Philadelphia’s playoff fortunes. The shortstop won the NL batting title, led the league with 179 hits and stole 36 bases. A healthy Turner adds another dimension. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Jhoan Duran got a taste of postseason baseball with the Twins in 2023, but he has never experienced it quite like at “The Bank,” with his walkout song blaring through what is widely considered the loudest, most boisterous ballpark this time of year. The Phillies’ front office beat out a bevy of suitors for Duran at the trade deadline, and he has been everything the team could have imagined, locking down the back end of a leaky bullpen and looking very much like the final player of a title quest. Soon, the ninth inning will come, and “El Incomprendido” will play. Philly will be ready. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Tired of the bullpen parade? The Phillies are your team. Philadelphia far and away paced the majors in innings from starters. It wasn’t just volume either, as Philly logged baseball’s third-best rotation ERA (3.57). And it wasn’t because the Phillies preached pitch to contact: Philadelphia led all of baseball in strikeout rate from starting pitchers, and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Sure, the loss of Zack Wheeler is a bummer, but the Sanchez-led rotation remains the foundation of the Phillies and their greatest hopes to traverse the bullpen-heavy staffs of the rest of the bracket en route to the World Series. — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL West champs
Wild-card result: Defeated Reds in two games
NLDS opponent: Phillies (50.2 chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +375
Team temperature: 113°
Why they can win the World Series: They did it last year and pretty much everyone who contributed to that team is back — plus a few more. This time, they’ve got to get through the wild-card series, which is no fun, but their starting pitching depth is truly daunting. No matter how they deploy Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, any permutation works. The bullpen is … a work in progress. But if you’re seeking a functional relief corps on the fly, there are worse places to start than with a group of 10 who have thrown out of the bullpen this month, seven at 95-plus (including Roki Sasaki), with Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw likewise at the ready. As for the hitters: Ohtani will win his second straight NL MVP, Mookie Betts is right again, Freddie Freeman in October is automatic and even if Will Smith is out, what the Dodgers manage better than anyone is depth, and despite the disappointment of the regular season, there exists this truth: If every team plays its best, the Dodgers are better than all of them. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: How about Freeman in a repeat performance? Hey, Corey Seager won in 2020 and 2023 (for two different teams), although no player has won MVP in back-to-back World Series. Freeman has played 11 World Series games — and reached via a hit in all 11 with an OPS of 1.171. He never lets the moment get too big, and another big World Series would cement his status as one of the all-time great clutch postseason performers. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the bullpen sinks this behemoth. Six different Dodgers relievers finished September with an ERA north of 5.00. Their team bullpen ERA for the month that ranked 26th in baseball. Only three teams blew more saves. Tanner Scott‘s first season in Los Angeles was a colossal disappointment. Kirby Yates, their other major free agent bullpen addition, landed on the injured list again during the final week of the regular season. Brock Stewart, the only reliever acquired at the trade deadline, pitched in four games before going on the IL. As a result, the Dodgers will supplement the bullpen with starters; Kershaw, Sasaki and Sheehan all figure to play significant relief roles in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Baseball fans were delighted to see Ohtani grace the postseason stage last October, but that was only half of him. This year, Ohtani will be fully unlocked. He’ll pitch — in Game 1 of the division series against the Phillies — and he’ll hit, with few, if any, limitations. The Dodgers were very careful in how they handled Ohtani’s pitching return, all with the thought of making sure he was at his best going into October. That goal was accomplished. Ohtani has once again proven he can be as dominant on the mound as he is in the batter’s box. Now, he’ll show it when it really counts. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: You like dynasties? Another Dodgers title would further cement L.A.’s dominance over the rest of baseball. The Dodgers looked far more vulnerable than predicted during the season, and their struggles continued into the latter stages of the regular season. But Ohtani will unleash his two-way act in the playoffs for the first time, Betts has turned around his down season, and everyone wants to send Kershaw into retirement on a high note. Dynasties are dynasties because they win even when their plans haven’t unfolded exactly as they foresaw. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 92-70 | NL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Padres in three games
NLDS opponent: Brewers (43.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +800
Team temperature: 87°
Why they can win the World Series: They’re a magnificent defensive team, they’ve got Kyle Tucker back to charge an offense that has been a bottom-quarter run-scoring team in the second half, and Daniel Palencia has also returned with his velocity. Maybe their flashes of excellence when they were healthy get rekindled. The Cubs might not be as talented as the NL elite, but their lineup is filled with hitters willing to take walks and not striking out exorbitantly. That kind of approach — and home run hitting — win in October, and the Cubs have both. Keep the steady performances from Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller to lengthen the bullpen and hope for a mid-postseason return by Cade Horton, who would immediately make their chances that much better. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Ian Happ. Tucker has battled multiple injuries in the second half, including a calf injury that sidelined him most of September. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dropped off significantly in the second half. Seiya Suzuki has likewise slumped. Happ is the overlooked member of the Cubs’ lineup, but he’s a switch-hitter with power, he gets on base, controls his strikeouts reasonably well, has hit well in the second half and usually bats second or third, giving him plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the late injuries pushed them off track. The Cubs’ best every-day player (Tucker), top starting pitcher (Horton) and closer (Palencia) dealt with injuries down the stretch. Though Tucker (calf) and Palencia (shoulder) returned from the injured list during the regular season’s final week, Horton was pulled from his start last Tuesday because of back tightnesss and placed on the injured list Saturday because of a rib fracture, the team announced. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Here’s one thing we know about the Cubs going into these playoffs: they’re going to have to score runs, especially with Horton out for at least the first round. Kyle Tucker missed most of September and Pete Crow-Armstrong had the majors’ lowest OPS among qualified hitters after the start of August, which only heightens the pressure on someone like Michael Busch. There’s plenty of reason for hope. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately, but Busch, 27, has been at his best over these last couple weeks and led the team with 34 home runs this season. He’ll be at the top of the lineup against righties and his production will be critical. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: An eight-year title drought is small potatoes in Chicago, but 2016 is starting to feel like a long time ago. This version of the Cubs, led by first-title-seeker Craig Counsell, has a chance to carve out its place in the hearts of North Side fans with a deep run this October. When the Cubs have been at their best, they’ve featured an electric offense led by Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and current fan favorite (P-C-A! P-C-A!) Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Tucker headed for free agency, this might be the Cubs’ best shot at matching their 2016 heights with this group. — Doolittle
The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape with the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees all moving on one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.
L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS with the Cubs set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the other.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers are headed west to take on the Seattle Mariners, and the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in an AL East duel.
What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining team need to do to move on to the league championship series? Which players could be October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?
ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.
Key links: Mega-preview | Bracket | Schedule
Jump to a matchup:
NYY-TOR | CHC-MIL | DET-SEA | LAD-PHI
ALDS: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Upset forecast: (Blue Jays win 47.4% of simulations.) Forecasts like this spur fundamental questions best left to the ancient Greeks, like, “What is the essence of an upset?” The Blue Jays won the AL East, beat the Yankees in eight of their 13 meetings, and earned a first-round bye and the AL’s top seed. But the Yankees more than doubled the Jays’ run differential. The disconnect between runs and wins can be explained easily: Toronto went 43-30 in games decided by one or two runs; New York was 35-36.
The analytical precept is that non-close games are more telling when it comes to team quality. The Yankees went 33-15 in games decided by five or more runs; the Blue Jays were 25-23. Finally, in terms of run differentials, the Blue Jays were the AL’s second-best home team, behind Texas. But the Yankees were the league’s best road team.
All of this is a long way of saying that Toronto has the higher seed and the home-field advantage, but it is not the favorite in this series.
Blue Jays concern level: Red hot. The Jays’ regular season success sent fan expectations soaring. Could the three-decade title drought be quenched at last? — Doolittle
New York Yankees
What has impressed you most about the Yankees this season?
Their power. The Yankees led baseball with 274 home runs this season. The Dodgers were second with 244. New York had seven players hit at least 20. Anthony Volpe fell one short. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all-time sluggers, but Trent Grisham (34 homers), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), Cody Bellinger (29) and Ben Rice (26) give the Yankees the deepest power bank in the majors. Hitting the ball over the fence has proven key for postseason success in recent years. And the Yankees have been doing it better than everyone else all year.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?
It will continue against the Blue Jays because Blue Jays pitchers recorded the highest home run rate among postseason participants this year. Jose Berrios surrendered 25. Chris Bassitt gave up 22. Kevin Gausman yielded 21. Closer Jeff Hoffman gave up 15 — the second most in baseball among relievers. Bassitt is expected to be available for the ALDS after finishing the season on the injured list, but Berríos is unlikely to appear in the series. In October run-scoring environments, a mistake or two could make the difference.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The Yankees reached the World Series last year without Judge performing to his MVP-level expectations, causing a stir for another edition of his postseason struggles. But those Yankees had Juan Soto and a red-hot Stanton working their October magic. While the Yankees’ lineup is deeper than a year ago, Judge is the motor. And his career success against Toronto suggests he should have a huge series. Judge has a career .300/.420/.597 slash line with 41 home runs in 133 games against the Blue Jays. This year, he batted .325 with three home runs and a 1.118 OPS in 56 appearances across 13 games. He has crushed Gausman (1.283 OPS in 61 plate appearances), Berríos (1.195 OPS in 44 plate appearances) and Bassitt (.935 OPS in 28 plate appearances) over his career. This, on paper, is an ideal matchup for a two-time AL MVP looking to exorcise October postseason demons. — Castillo
Toronto Blue Jays
What carried the Blue Jays to an October bye?
A propensity to put the ball in play and strong defense. The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate this season was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a club since 2015. Two of the five teams with lower rates — the 2015 Kansas City Royals and 2017 Houston Astros — won the World Series.
Defensively, Toronto ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. In short, it puts pressure on teams to make plays, and it makes the plays themselves. It’s a sound combination for October when every out is crucial.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Yankees?
It won’t continue against the Yankees because stringing together hits in October, when the pitching rises to another level, is difficult. The Blue Jays tied for 11th in the majors with 191 home runs during the regular season — a solid output with George Springer (32) leading the way followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (23), Addison Barger (21) and Daulton Varsho (20). But that pales in comparison to New York. The Yankees blasted 274 homers — 30 more than the second-ranked Dodgers. New York had seven players club at least 20 — and Anthony Volpe fell one short. Power plays in October, and the Yankees have the substantial edge.
Which one player must deliver to put Toronto in the ALCS?
The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million contract to serve as the franchise’s cornerstone for another 14 years. The assignment includes impressing when it matters most. Guerrero is just 3-for-22 with one extra-base hit, two walks and five strikeouts in six career playoff games divided into two-game slices over three postseasons. It’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jays went 0-6 in those games. Guerrero now has a chance to fuel a deep October run after another strong regular season. — Castillo
NLDS: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Upset forecast: (Brewers win 56.2% of simulations) The Hiawatha Series! Yes, we tend to label these geographic rivalries with the interstates that connect them but in this case, let’s go with the Amtrak line that runs back and forth between Milwaukee and Chicago every day.
This is the first postseason edition and the Brewers, who posted baseball’s best record and run differential, are the statistical favorites. But the reasons to pick the Cubs are many: They offset many of Milwaukee’s advantages in speed and defense, and have more power. The Brewers’ pitching staff was better overall but struggled with health down the stretch. The Brewers have youth and the most athletic position group in the majors; the Cubs have more star power, especially if Kyle Tucker gets going.
Upset? The Cubs would be no Cinderella if they knock off Milwaukee, but the good people of Wisconsin would indeed be very upset.
Brewers concern level: Moderate. Losing to the hated Cubs would be a crusher, but this is an unflappable Brewers team, full of the hubris of youth. The clubhouse is upbeat and tightly knit, and this still-overlooked group will be aching to not only dispatch their rivals but also to show the nation why they were baseball’s best during the season. — Doolittle
Chicago Cubs
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The talk going into the series was how the Padres’ bullpen — which was arguably the best in baseball in the regular season — was dominant enough to maybe carry the Padres all the way to the World Series.
The Cubs’ bullpen? It wasn’t really generating a lot of hype.
This group has kind of been reconstructed on the fly throughout the season, but it looks really good right now. The secret weapon is veteran journeyman Brad Keller, who only had three saves in the regular season, but had a terrific year after adding 4 mph to his fastball and is now closing after Daniel Palencia got injured in September and missed a couple of weeks. (He’s back now.)
Why will/won’t it continue against the Brewers?
Why not? The numbers are legit. Keller is throwing 98 and had a 2.07 ERA. Palencia hit 100 mph in his Game 1 appearance. Drew Pomeranz, brought in from the Mariners in April, is a good lefty option who had a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Kittredge got a hold in Game 1, started Game 2 as the opener and got the save in Game 3 after Keller’s sudden control issues. Caleb Thielbar gives them a second good lefty. That’s a strong group that Craig Counsell can mix and match with and provide for a Cubs rotation without rookie Cade Horton, one of the best starters in the majors in the second half.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The second-half slides of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong received a lot of attention, but Seiya Suzuki‘s own slump was just as important to the Cubs’ offensive struggles in the second half. Suzuki hit .263 with an .867 OPS through the All-Star break but .213 with a .688 OPS after.
Given that Tucker is playing through some injury issues and Crow-Armstrong has struggled to make adjustments after his big first half, the Cubs need Suzuki to deliver and he did that with a big home run in Game 1 against the Padres. — Schoenfield
Milwaukee Brewers
What carried the Brewers to an October bye?
Pitching, defense, speed and timely hitting. Only the Rangers and Padres allowed fewer runs than the Brewers as Milwaukee had a good balance between starting pitching (third in the majors in ERA) and bullpen (sixth in ERA). The Brewers ranked first in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and second in the majors with a .279 average with runners in scoring position — two keys to them finishing third in runs scored despite ranking just 22nd in home runs.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Cubs?
The Brewers weren’t a popular pick to reach the World Series precisely because many believe this formula won’t work as well in the postseason as it did in the regular season. Maybe that’s unfair, but the numbers are clear: You have to hit more home runs than your opponents to win in October. That can still happen for Milwaukee, but the Brewers will likely need some non-home run hitters to step up with some power.
The other concern arose because of a couple key injuries to the pitching staff, with Trevor Megill, the Brewers’ closer most of the season, returning from a lengthy absence and starter Brandon Woodruff battling a lat strain and not pitching since Sept. 17.
Which one player must deliver to put Milwaukee in the NLCS?
Brice Turang could be the guy who proves a surprising source of power. He finished with a solid 18 home runs, but was even better in the second half when he hit .308/.380/.536 with 12 home runs in 63 games. As the production increased, manager Pat Murphy moved Turang into a middle-of-the-order spot in the lineup more often down the stretch. On the other hand, Turang also hit just one home run in his final 23 games. — Schoenfield
ALDS: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Upset forecast: (Mariners win 51.6% of simulations) The Mariners’ baseline is slightly better because of their much better finish to the season than Detroit’s woeful ending but over the full 162-game slate, they had only a five-run edge in differential. In other words, if Detroit were to beat Seattle, it would at best be a very mild upset. The Tigers could get two Tarik Skubal starts in the ALDS on normal rest, Game 2 in Seattle and a potential decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. That, as much as anything, makes Detroit a threat to advance to the ALCS. Their late-season swoon was considerable but what we’ve seen over the past week is a Tigers club that has already shaken that off.
Mariners concern level: Historic. Seattle knows it’s facing a tough opponent but they match up well with the Tigers. But when you’ve never been to the World Series, there is a baseline level of concern that is always going to be kind of high. — Doolittle
Detroit Tigers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
Give the Tigers credit for turning the page on their near-catastrophic September that saw them blow the biggest final-month lead in MLB history by beating the team that edged them for the division crown in the wild-card round.
Of course, it helped to have the ultimate momentum changer in Tarik Skubal in Game 1. Skubal’s 14-strikeout performance was a postseason masterpiece and sets up this possibility: Can he pull a Madison Bumgarner circa 2014 and put his team on his back for an entire month?
Why will/won’t it continue against the Mariners?
Here’s the good news for the Tigers: Skubal can start in Game 2 of the ALDS on four days of rest. Then, thanks to two off days, if the series goes five games he can start Game 5 on four days of rest. Skubal started back-to-back games on four days of rest only once all season since he generally worked on five or more days, but that one time turned out just fine: In the second of those starts, he allowed one hit with 13 strikeouts.
So, yes, Skubal’s dominance can continue, but they’ll need others on the staff to step up against a Seattle offense that was the best in baseball in September. The performance against Cleveland was encouraging, but Cleveland’s lineup is not Seattle’s lineup.
Which one player must deliver for them to pull off the upset?
Besides Skubal? Let’s go with a pair here: Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. The Tigers are in the unique position of having arguably the best pitcher on the planet and also not really having a fourth starter, so it’s crucial they get something from at least one of their other two starters in the games Skubal doesn’t pitch. Neither made it through five innings in the wild-card round and Detroit is going to need more length than that to get past Seattle. — Schoenfield
Seattle Mariners
What carried the Mariners to an October bye?
We all know the Mariners can pitch. The problem in recent years has been the offense. This year was different. The Mariners sprinted past the shorthanded Astros in September to win the AL West with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez carrying the offensive surge.
Seattle led the majors in runs scored, home runs and wRC+ in September. They were second in OPS and wOBA. Combined with that potent pitching staff, the Mariners ripped off 11 straight wins and 17 wins in 18 games to comfortably reach the postseason with a bye — and emerge as a trendy pick to reach the World Series.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Tigers?
It will continue against the Tigers because even Skubal struggled to handle the Mariners in their two meetings during the regular season. Skubal didn’t complete six innings in either start, tossing 5⅔ innings in Seattle on April 2 and five innings at home on July 11. He combined to allow seven runs on 10 hits. October is another beast, of course, and Skubal is coming off a historic performance in Cleveland. Even if he is dominant, the Tigers’ pitching staff faces a steep challenge. If he’s not, the Tigers’ chances to advance are very slim.
Which one player must deliver to put Seattle in the ALCS?
Raleigh could end up winning AL MVP, but Rodriguez might be the team’s most important hitter in October. Rodriguez made the All-Star team again this summer, but he was a significantly better hitter post-All-Star break — continuing his trend as a late-season performer. The center fielder led the Mariners in batting average, wRC+, OPS and fWAR in the second half. As the man tasked to protect Raleigh in the lineup, a strong showing from Rodriguez could force pitchers to attack Raleigh — and that’s a tough recipe for success for opposing teams. — Castillo
NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Upset forecast: (Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.
This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.
Phillies concern level: Nonexistent. Look, the Phillies know who they are playing. But with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and Jhoan Duran on their side, this is not a team that is going to fret about anything. They will just wait for the adrenaline to flow. — Doolittle
Los Angeles Dodgers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The Dodgers haven’t really run out their “A” team for most of the season as they babied their starters for much of the season, but now we can see how good this team can be with a healthy rotation. Blake Snell was dominant in the first game until finally tiring in the seventh. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the seasonlong ace for the Dodgers, was solid in Game 2, escaping a bases-loaded no-outs jam in the sixth. The Dodgers were confident enough in those two that they saved Ohtani for what would have been Game 3 — and now is Game 1 of the NLDS. Oh, Ohtani can hit a little, too. Remember, the Dodgers won it all last season with Ohtani having a good-but-not-great postseason at the plate. After his two-homer game in Game 1 this postseason, watch out.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Phillies?
The Dodgers certainly have to love where they are. Ohtani slowly worked his way up to a normal workload and pitched six innings in his final start, throwing 91 pitches. He allowed just one run over his final four appearances and surrendered just three home runs in 47 innings. Thanks to having three potential off days to play five games in this series, Ohtani could start Game 5 on six days of rest.
After his initial one-inning appearances in June, Ohtani was given at least six days off between starts, and his three starts in September came with eight, 10 and six days of rest, and he will have 10 days before his Game 1 NLDS appearance. The Dodgers will worry about the NLCS if they get there.
Which one player must deliver for L.A. to move on?
This is clearly about players, plural — as in relief pitchers. The sketchy Dodgers bullpen didn’t ease the confidence of Dodgers fans — or Dave Roberts — with a poor showing in Game 1 against Cincinnati, when the Dodgers had a 10-2 lead only to see the bullpen start walking everybody and the Reds load the bases and have the tying run on deck. Who Roberts trusts in the highest-leverage situations — and can deliver — remains a question. But there is hope Roki Sasaki can be a part of the answer after his strong showing in Game 2 against the Reds. — Schoenfield
Philadelphia Phillies
What carried the Phillies to an October bye?
The starting rotation and a monster season from Kyle Schwarber. The rotation led the NL in ERA and led the majors — by 51 innings — in innings pitched. Cristopher Sanchez led the way with an absolute monster season of his own — in fact, it was Sanchez, and not Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal, who led the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR. Meanwhile, Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, including setting a major league record with 23 home runs as a left-handed batter against left-handed pitchers.
Will it continue against the Dodgers?
Of course, a large part of that rotation success was Zack Wheeler, but he’s out for the postseason. Ranger Suarez had a terrific season but wasn’t great his final three starts, allowing 12 runs and four home runs in 14⅓ innings. And the fourth starter after Jesus Luzardo is either Aaron Nola, who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence given his 6.01 ERA and mediocre postseason results in his career, or Walker Buehler, who was signed at the end of August after the Red Sox released him. In other words: There are at least some slight concerns here for a rotation that was so good.
As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.
Which one player must deliver to put Philadelphia in the NLCS?
Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield
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Jorge Castillo
TORONTO — The New York Yankees touched down in Canada early Friday with some bulletin board material ahead of their American League Division Series showdown against the Toronto Blue Jays.
“Contrary to some thoughts up here, we’re a really good team,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said in a news conference Friday.
Boone was referring to a pointed critique that Blue Jays television color analyst and former major leaguer Buck Martinez offered on the Yankees during a game between the Blue Jays and Houston Astros on Sept 9.
The Yankees had taken two of three games from the Blue Jays the previous weekend, but Martinez was unimpressed.
“The Yankees, they’re not a good team,” Martinez said. “I don’t care what their record is.”
The Yankees went 5-8 against the Blue Jays in the regular season and just 1-6 in Toronto. The head-to-head series proved significant when both clubs finished tied atop the AL East with 94 wins, and the Blue Jays won the division because of the season-series tiebreaker.
“I know Buck had some thoughts,” Boone later added. “That’s all I was responding to. He’s wrong. But it doesn’t matter. We’ve got to go play, and we’ve got to go perform, as everyone does this time of year. We feel really good about our team. We’re playing well. All that’s in the past now. We’ve got to play well moving forward.”
The first move for both clubs was deciding their starting pitcher for Game 1 on Saturday. The Blue Jays chose veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman. The Yankees picked Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, over Will Warren, who will be available out of the bullpen.
Boone said Max Fried will start Game 2 on Sunday.
Gil and Gausman last started in their clubs’ regular-season finales Sept. 28.
Gausman, 34, tallied a 3.59 ERA in 193 innings across 32 starts. He allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 22⅔ innings across four starts against the Yankees.
“He’s the same guy every single day,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “You don’t worry about him getting caught up in the noise and the stuff that goes with a Game 1.”
Gil, 27, missed the first four months of the season because of a lat injury before recording a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts. He faced Toronto on Sept. 9, holding the Blue Jays to one run on three hits over six innings.
“Just feel like he’s ready for this,” Boone said. “He’s in line for it. Decided we want to keep Warren an option in the pen, and we feel like Luis is ready to go.”
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