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Welcome to MLB Awards Week.
November has become awards season in baseball, which increasingly serves as a way to keep eyeballs on the game before the hot stove season ramps up. So far, we’ve gotten the Gold Glove Awards, Silver Sluggers, the All-MLB Team and more.
Now, it’s time for the biggies — the four major awards determined by Baseball Writers’ Association of America voting and that will feature prominently in baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés of the future. The winners are being announced live each night on MLB Network, starting at 6 p.m. ET.
On Tuesday, the 2024 Managers of the Year were named, starting with Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians in the American League.
Here’s the rest of the week’s schedule:
Wednesday: Cy Young Awards
Thursday: MVP Awards
Below, we list the three finalists in the remaining categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced, and who our panel of ESPN MLB experts believes should take home the hardware. Each section has been updated with news and analysis as the awards were handed out.
Jump to: Manager of the Year: AL | NL Rookie of the Year: AL | NL Cy Young: AL | NL MVP: AL | NL
Doolittle’s take: Vogt did more than fill the shoes of Terry Francona — he made it seem like he’d been leading the Guardians for years. He led a Guardians club that was not expected to contend to the AL Central title.
Vogt did this while doing managerial things that catch your eye. He leaned heavily on the game’s most dynamic bullpen to circumnavigate a slew of rotation injuries and underperformance. He also oversaw a transition in Cleveland’s collective offensive approach, which mixed in a little more slugging from the same group of hitters than had been evident before.
It’s a remarkable achievement, one recognized by a dominating showing in the balloting.
Alas, that spread in the final vote — 27 first-place votes for Vogt to two for Quatraro — is really hard to grok. The bottom line is that the Royals lost 106 games in 2023, then won 86 in 2024, a stunning turnaround, especially because it did not happen because of a sudden wave of prospects arriving at Kauffman Stadium. Quatraro is quiet, steady, consistent and a perfect fit in the lineage of successful Royals field generals. He is the epitome of what you think of when you think of someone who wins Manager of the Year.
The competition was steep. Hinch did perhaps the best managing job in a career that has been full of virtuoso performances. Vogt was fantastic. But the sheer scale of Quatraro’s accomplishment with the Royals seemed too much to overlook. Yet, it was. This was a miss by the voters.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Quatraro, Royals (105.3 EARL, finalist)
2. Vogt, Guardians (104.9, winner)
3. Kotsay, Athletics (103.9)
4. Hinch, Tigers (103.2, finalist)
5. Boone, Yankees (101.8)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
Doolittle’s take:Mendoza had a fantastic first season in the Mets’ dugout, helping the team overcome a sluggish start and eventually end up facing the Dodgers in the NLCS. He did so with quiet, consistent leadership and that bodes well for his ability to last a long time in one of baseball’s most challenging environments.
Shildt, who won the award in 2019 while with the Cardinals, proved to be a feisty presence on a star-laden team with middling expectations that kept rising as the season progressed.
Murphy’s season is hard to beat. Handed the reins of a big league team for a full season for the first time at 65, Murphy was able to put his imprint on the young Brewers. This was no small feat given the departure last winter of his onetime protege, Craig Counsell, arguably the face of the franchise.
Milwaukee went young, suffered rotation shortages and had a number of moving parts in its lineup. Behind Murphy, the Brewers changed their style of play to better accentuate the athleticism on the roster, won 93 games and cruised to another NL Central title.
Experts’ pick: Gil (7 votes); Cowser (1 vote); Smith (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: This was a race in which you could have plucked the names of any of about seven players out of a hat without worry of finding a wrong answer. Of course, by the time Monday rolled around, we were down to three names in that hat, the finalists, but the statement holds true. There was no wrong answer, which is probably why the voting was so close.
With no clear front-runner, voters had to weigh some narrative aspects alongside a muddy statistical leaderboard, one that gave different answers depending on which site you happened to pull up. That’s why AXE (see note) exists — to create a consensus from these different systems — but it didn’t do much to clarify the AL rookie derby.
Gil and Wells, both essential rookie contributors to the Yankees’ run to the World Series, excelled with a lot of eyeballs on them all season, and that certainly didn’t hurt their support. Cowser’s role as an every-day player for the playoff-bound Orioles also had a high-visibility context. It feels like that, as much as anything, is why this trio emerged as finalists in a hard-to-separate field.
The emergence of Gil and the gaps he filled in an injury-depleted Yankees rotation were too much to ignore. It was a surprising emergence: Gil is 26, and he debuted in professional baseball way back in 2015 as a 17-year-old in the Minnesota organization. But when you talk about impact, you can conjure up all sorts of ill scenarios for New York had he not led AL rookies with 15 wins, 141 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA (minimum 10 starts).
The voters got it right, if only because they could not possibly have gotten it wrong.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Smith, Guardians (117 AXE)
2. Langford, Rangers (116)
3. (tie) Miller, Athletics (115)
Abreu, Red Sox (115)
Gil, Yankees (115, winner)
6. Wells, Yankees (113, finalist)
7. Cowser, Orioles (111, finalist)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
Doolittle’s take: Skenes emerged as the winner of a star-studded NL rookie class that was deep in impact performances put up by high-upside prospects who should only get better as the years progress. It was also a classic debate, one that stirs the passions whether you are driven by traditional approaches or the most current of performance metrics: Can a starting pitcher really produce more value than a position player given the disparity in games played?
It’s a debate mostly settled in the MVP races, where pitchers only occasionally bob up to forefront of the conversation. The one in the NL Rookie of the Year race this season between Skenes, Merrill and, to a lesser extent, Chourio was a classic example.
Sure, Skenes was absolutely dominant; he’s a finalist in the NL Cy Young race, for goodness sake. Still, we’re talking about 23 games. Meanwhile, Merrill’s gifts were on display in 156 contests for the Padres, while Chourio played in 148 games for Milwaukee. Yes, the value metrics are supposed to clarify these comparisons, but, still, how do you weigh that kind of disparity between players with entirely different jobs?
In the end, I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that debate, nor is there a wrong answer to this balloting. Each of the finalists would have been a slam-dunk winner in many seasons. Skenes might very well be the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to these discussions a year from now, if he isn’t already. In less than a year and a half, he has been the top overall pick in the draft, started an All-Star Game and become a finalist in two of the NL’s major postseason awards.
You can certainly makes cases for Merrill and Chourio. But you can’t really make a case against Skenes, 23 games or not. Since earned runs became official in 1913, Skenes became the fourth pitcher with a strikeout rate of at least 11 per nine innings while posting an ERA under 2. He’s just that much of an outlier.
Doolittle’s take:While the outcome seems like (and almost certainly is) a no-brainer, don’t let that make you lose sight of the overall dynamic around this award. In a nutshell: This is one of the greatest MVP races ever, in terms of historically elite performances from players in the same league.
The dominant performances went beyond the finalists. Five AL players posted at least 7.9 bWAR, led by the three MVP finalists, as well as Boston’s Jarren Duran and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, who both finished with higher bWAR totals than Soto. Only once before has the AL had five players produce at that level in the same season — way back in 1912.
While Soto was never far out of the picture, this was a high-octane two-player race for most of the season between the mashing dominance of Judge and the five-tool mastery of the dynamic Witt. Judge won the bWAR battle by a good margin (10.8 to 9.4) and seemed to pull away at the end of the season. Even if you don’t like to think of this in terms of bWAR, it’s hard to look past league-leading totals of 58 homers and 144 RBIs and a third-place .322 batting average, all on the league’s best team.
The real drama surrounding this award is tied to that of the NL: Will we have two unanimous MVP picks? If so, that would be just the second time it’s happened. The first? Last year, when Shohei Ohtani (then with the Angels) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) pulled it off.
Doolittle’s take: When the DH became a part of big league baseball back in the 1970s, those who defended it tended to point out how it would allow older superstars to hang around for a few more years. Thus the default image of the DH was the aging, plodding slugger trying to generate occasional glimpses of what he used to be.
Things have changed. Ohtani did not don a baseball glove during a game this season and yet established himself as far and away the most dominant player in the National League. The numbers were staggering: .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 59 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs and drove in 130, even though 57% of his plate appearances came as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter.
As with Judge, the intrigue isn’t about whether Ohtani will win, but whether or not he’ll be a unanimous pick. And, let’s face it, there’s not much intrigue about that, either. If Ohtani does it, it’ll be the third time he has been a unanimous selection. No one else has done it even twice.
Doolittle’s take:Long touted for his upside, Skubal put it all together in 2024, becoming the AL’s most dominant and consistent starting pitcher during the regular season, leading the Tigers to a surprise postseason berth.
Skubal became the AL’s first full-season winner of the pitching triple crown since another Tiger, Justin Verlander, did it in 2011. (Cleveland’s Shane Bieber did it in the shortened 2020 season.) With league-leading totals of 18 wins, 228 strikeouts and a 2.39 ERA, Skubal is well positioned to win his first Cy Young.
Lugo becomes the Royals’ rotation representative in the finalist group, honoring one of MLB’s breakout units in 2024, though teammate Cole Ragans might have been just as worthy. Entering the season, Lugo had never qualified for an ERA title, but in his first campaign for Kansas City, he threw 206⅔ innings, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA.
Clase struggled in the postseason but the voting took place before that, and it recognized his unusually dominant season, good enough to justify his presence in this group despite his role as a short reliever. In 74 outings, featuring 47 saves, Clase allowed just five earned runs. He’s still a reliever and, thus, a long shot to win the award, but getting this far says a lot. The last reliever to win a Cy Young Award was the Dodgers’ Eric Gagne in 2003.
Doolittle’s take: What an interesting group of finalists this is. Value-wise, it’s a close race.
Wheeler is the constant here, as he’s enjoying a seven-year run as one of the NL’s top starting pitchers. Wheeler is still looking for his first Cy Young and entered the balloting this time around with his best résumé to date. Yet Wheeler is coming up against two pitchers with arguably more compelling — and very different — narratives.
Skenes is baseball’s ascendant ace. Few pitchers have reached the majors with higher expectations in recent years. He met the hype head-on and, if anything, proved to be even better than we thought. With the innings volume of baseball’s best starters much less than it used to be, it is possible for an elite run preventer to save runs at a clip that puts him among the league leaders during a partial season. It wasn’t Skenes’ fault that he wasn’t called up until the second week of May. All he did after that was post a 1.96 ERA over 23 starts while displaying a remarkable degree of consistency. There wasn’t a true clunker in the bunch.
And yet Sale might have been more dominant if you consider defensive-independent ERA (or FIP), in which Sale’s 2.09 bested Skenes’ 2.45. Also, like Skubal, Sale (18 wins, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts) became the first pitching triple crown winner of his league since 2011. In Sale’s case, he became the first to do it since L.A.’s Clayton Kershaw.
All this from a pitcher who once finished sixth or better in AL Cy Young voting seven straight seasons. He has never won, though, and the last of those seasons was 2018. Sale’s days as a premier starter seemed long gone … and then he did this. That’s a good narrative.
Doolittle’s take:I’ve written a couple of times this year that I think the Brewers might be the best-run organization in baseball right now, so that speaks to how I view the work of Arnold and his staff. I also have a kind of organizational mash-up metric I track during the season that considers things such as injuries, rookie contribution, payroll efficiency and in-season acquisitions, and Milwaukee topped that leaderboard.
And yet it’s somewhat stunning that Kansas City’s J.J. Picollo did not win this honor. He oversaw the team’s leap from 106 losses to the playoffs, using free agency to bolster the roster and staying proactive at the trade deadline (and the August waiver period) to provide essential upgrades that put the Royals over the top. It’s hard to do a better one-season job as a baseball ops chief than what Picollo did this season.
Doolittle’s take:Nobody asked me about these picks, but they read as if they did. I had the same first team. On the second team, I might have opted for Matt Chapman over Manny Machado at third base, but if that’s my one note, the selectors did a heck of a job. Or maybe I did.
Doolittle’s take:For all the uncertainty in making defensive picks, the consensus defensive metric I used more or less mirrored the Gold Glove selections. I would have taken Chourio or Washington’s Jacob Young as one of the NL’s outfielders in place of Ian Happ.
South Korean infielder Sung-mun Song and the San Diego Padres finalized a $15 million, four-year contract on Sunday.
Song will receive a $1 million signing bonus in two equal installments, in 30 days and on Jan. 15, 2027, and salaries of $2.5 million next year, $3 million in 2027 and $3.5 million in 2028.
Song’s deal includes a $4 million player option for 2029 and a $7 million mutual option for 2030 with a $1 million buyout.
If Song wins a Rookie of the Year award, his salary the following season would escalate by $1 million. If he finishes among the top five in MVP voting, his salary in all remaining years of the contract would increase by $1 million each.
He will be a free agent at the end of the contract, and the team will pay for an interpreter and round trip airline tickets from South Korea.
Song hit .315 with a career-high 26 homers and 90 RBIs this year for South Korea’s Kiwoom Heroes. Primarily a third baseman, the 29-year-old left-handed hitter has a .284 average with 80 homers and 454 RBIs in nine seasons with Nexen (2015, 2017-19) and Kiwoom (2021-25).
Under MLB’s posting agreement with the Korean Baseball Organization League, the Padres will pay the Heroes a $3 million posting fee. San Diego would owe a supplemental fee of 15% of any escalators triggered.
Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is joining the Chicago White Sox, landing the home run record-setter in Nippon Professional Baseball with a rebuilding team making its first free agent splash in years.
The White Sox announced Murakami’s addition Sunday, with sources telling ESPN the sides agreed on a two-year, $34 million contract.
Murakami, 25, was arguably the most fascinating player to hit free agency this winter. A 6-foot-2, 230-pound left-handed slugger with elite exit velocity, he was the youngest player on the market, and he now heads to Major League Baseball with 246 home runs in his eight seasons for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows.
He has been a star in Japan since he hit 36 home runs as a 19-year-old in 2019. He followed that up with 56 home runs in 2022, breaking the record for a Japan-born player set in 1964 by Sadaharu Oh. Murakami, a two-time Central League MVP, missed time last season with an oblique injury but hit 22 home runs in 56 games with a .273/.379/.663 slash line.
While projections for Murakami to hit a financial jackpot preceded his free agency, concerns about his defense — he can play third base or first base — and his propensity to swing and miss at pitches in the zone caused a slower market than anticipated ahead of his 5 p.m. ET Monday deadline to sign.
Though teams tried to get in for lower-dollar long-term deals, Murakami opted for a higher-dollar short-term offering, allowing himself to prove his ability to adjust to superior MLB pitching.
Should he do so, Murakami would hit the market again at 27 and be primed to cash in on a megadeal, similar to how other free agents in recent seasons with softer-than-expected markets parlayed short-term contracts into long-term paydays.
The leap in Murakami’s strikeout rate over the past three years (over 28% each season) and his 72.6% in-zone contact rate (would have been second lowest in MLB this year) illustrate the potential downside in his offensive game. But San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers remains productive with a high whiff rate, and Chicago saw the opportunity to bring in the sort of talent it typically does not have access to with a low payroll and a prospect-hoarding mentality.
Murakami’s 90th-percentile exit velocity would have been fifth in MLB, his maximum exit velocity 12th and his hard-hit rate first. For a White Sox team two years removed from the most losses in MLB history, adding Murakami to a lineup that includes promising young hitters in shortstop Colson Montgomery, catchers Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, infielder Miguel Vargas, and second baseman Chase Meidroth brings even more hope after winning the draft lottery at the winter meetings.
The overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 in the July draft is UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, giving the White Sox a potential abundance of young infielders in the coming years.
Whether Murakami is manning first or third, he will be in the middle of a White Sox lineup in desperate need of power. With 165 home runs last season, the White Sox finished 14th of 15 American League teams, just ahead of the Kansas City Royals. In his eight seasons with the Swallows following his debut as an 18-year-old, Murakami hit .270/.394/.557 with a walk rate of greater than 16% and a strikeout rate nearing 26%.
Highlight reels of his home runs have long circulated on the internet in anticipation of Murakami’s arrival in MLB. He played a vital role in Japan’s victory in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, hammering a game-winning two-run double in the ninth inning of a semifinal win against Mexico.
Chicago saw that version of Murakami and will add him to perhaps the most uniquely constructed roster in baseball, with five players signed — Murakami, Luis Robert Jr. ($20 million), Andrew Benintendi ($17.1 million), Anthony Kay ($5 million) and Derek Hill ($900,000) — none eligible for arbitration and the remainder making around the major league minimum.
Murakami’s deal will cost the White Sox $40.575 million in total, with the Swallows receiving a $6.575 million posting fee to transfer him to Chicago.
Contreras, 33, has been one of the steadiest right-handed hitters in baseball since his debut and will bring his well-above-average glove to a position Boston had spent the offseason trying to fill. The Red Sox will receive $8 million to cover the remaining $42.5 million on the three-time All-Star’s contract and sent right-hander Hunter Dobbins and right-handed pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita to the Cardinals, sources said.
While the Cardinals were not intent on trading Contreras this winter, the opportunity to land a major league-ready starter in Dobbins helped facilitate a deal that came after Sonny Gray waived his no-trade clause to go from St. Louis to Boston in late November. Contreras likewise waived his no-trade clause after receiving an extra million dollars guaranteed through a renegotiation of his contract, sources said.
The amended contract will pay Contreras $18 million in 2026 and $17 million in 2027 with a $20 million option in 2028 that now includes a $7.5 million buyout. (Previously, the deal paid him $18 million in ’26, $18.5 million in ’27 with a $17.5 million option and a $5 million buyout.) Boston had sought a right-handed bat to play first base and fell short in the bidding for free agent first baseman Pete Alonso, who signed with division rival Baltimore.
Though Contreras doesn’t possess the power of Alonso, he has been a tremendously steady hitter since debuting at catcher for the Chicago Cubs in 2016. Over his 10-year career, Contreras has hit .258/.352/.459, and last year, after shifting full-time to first base, he hit .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs.
To get Contreras, the Red Sox dipped into their deep well of starting pitching, sending the 26-year-old Dobbins, who figures to have a spot in St. Louis’ rotation when he returns from a July ACL tear that ended his debut season. Prior to the injury, sustained when covering first base, Dobbins went 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA over 13 outings, allowing just six home runs in 61 innings and striking out 45 against 17 walks.
The 19-year-old Fajardo, who had been traded to the Red Sox a year ago to the day, posted a 2.25 ERA over 72 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Salem this year. A $400,000 signing out of Venezuela, he runs his fastball up to 97 mph and complements it with a changeup and slider.
Aita, 22, was a sixth-round pick out of Kennesaw State in 2024 and finished this year at High-A. Featuring a mid-90s fastball, Aita struck out 99 and walked 30 in 115.1 innings with a 3.98 ERA over two levels.