‘Run, Forrest, run!’: How good a football player was Forrest Gump, really?
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Ryan McGee, ESPN Senior Writer
“He must be the stupidest son of a b—- alive! But he sure is fast!”
— “Bear Bryant” speaking of Forrest Gump in “Forrest Gump”
It was 30 years ago this fall that “Forrest Gump,” the story of a gentle soul who ended up traveling the globe, meeting presidents and filling the world with wisdom such as “Life is like a box of chocolates,” and “Stupid is as stupid does,” was running through the box office and toward six Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Actor for Tom Hanks and Best Director for Robert Zemeckis.
If you are a true Gump believer — and judging by the film’s $678 million gross, the 2.5 million copies sold of Winston Groom’s book that inspired the film, the brisk sales of its recent 30th anniversary Blu-Ray re-release, not to mention the line of people I recently saw waiting to eat at Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. in Times Square, there are many — then you also know that this fall also marks 60 years since the kid from fictional Greenbow, Alabama, became an All-America kick returner for Bear Bryant’s Alabama Crimson Tide.
Forrest Gump, wearing No. 44, scored the very first time he touched the football, a 99½-yard kickoff return against a team that appears to be the Vanderbilt Commodores. He went end zone to end zone, including a crossfield detour mid-return as he ran toward Bryant on the Bama sideline. Then he added at least another 50 yards because he didn’t stop after crossing the goal line and kept churning through the Legion Field tunnel and presumably into downtown Birmingham.
Now, amid these two very important anniversaries, and as his alma mater runs into Week 13 with an eye on running into the College Football Playoff, we ask a crucial, crimson-tinted question: Just how good at football was Forrest Gump, really?
“It’s been a while since I really broke down his film, but what I did see back in the day made an impact on me,” current Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer confessed during a chat about how, after taking the job as Top Tider, he immersed himself in the program’s unparalleled history. “He was raw, but fast and coachable. No coach is ever going to turn down a kid with that combination.”
Not even the Bear.
“And that’s what I did. I ran clear across Alabama.”
There are no official statistics for Forrest Gump’s time at Alabama. Trust us, we asked the sports information office as well as the Bear Bryant Museum, located on the Tuscaloosa campus. They had nothing, forcing us to show some, ahem, gumption, and piece together what we could, based on what we do know.
We know that Gump was a student at the University of Alabama on June 11, 1963, because he was an eyewitness to George Wallace’s Stand in the Schoolhouse Door, when the governor of Alabama made a symbolic attempt to prevent two Black students from enrolling for class, in opposition to school integration.
We also know that Gump had already played at least one season of football before that, because we see Bryant and his staff flabbergasted as they watch the TV news and see their return specialist returning a notebook to one of those students, Vivian Malone, after she drops it in front of Wallace, protesters and the National Guard.
We also know that his first All-America season had to be 1962, because he met John F. Kennedy at the White House (and drank all his Dr Peppers). JFK died on Nov. 22, 1963, before the All-America roster for that year would have been chosen.
We also know that when Gump graduates from Alabama, he says, “Can you believe it? After only five years of playing football, I got a college degree.”
So it would appear that Gump’s time with the Tide likely ran from 1959 to 1963, and that makes sense. If you don’t recall, Gump caught Bryant’s attention when, while running from a truckload of bullies, he unknowingly sprinted the length of the Greenbow High Braves’ stadium in front of the Bear. That would have been the fall of ’58, Bryant’s first fall in Tuscaloosa and in the middle of a rebuilding 5-4-1 campaign. The kind of season that would make a college football coach desperate enough to sign a kid who was described to him as “just the local idiot” with an IQ that we know to be 75.
Back then, freshmen didn’t play. Neither did Gump in ’59. The following year, the Tide’s third game of the season was also their first at Legion Field against … Vanderbilt. That’s the first TD return we see in the movie. The next one comes at the same stadium, and clearly in a later season, because the home crowd has figured out to unfurl “Stop Forrest!” signs to prevent him from making any more tunnel sprints. This is also at Legion Field, and the opponent appears to be wearing the distinctive colors of the Tulane Green Wave. And the real life Tide did indeed play and defeat Tulane in 1961.
See? We’re figuring this out!
If this was indeed the Forrest Gump Era of Alabama football, there was nothing stupid about it. During his presumed four years on the roster, the Tide posted a record of 38-4-1 and an SEC mark of 24-4-1, went 3-0-1 in bowl games and also won the first of Bryant’s six national titles in 1961.
“Of course, it didn’t hurt that his quarterback was Joe Namath,” noted Dr. Carl Miller, professor and chair of the English department at Palm Beach Atlantic University. “Anyone who ever talked to Winston Groom about Alabama football knows how he felt about Joe Namath.”
“Always be able to look back and say, at least I didn’t lead no humdrum life.”
When Groom wrote the book “Forrest Gump” in 1986, the story of a boy with a low IQ who spends a lifetime unlocking pockets of true brilliance, it was inspired by two of his own life experiences. The first was a tale his father told him often, about a kid in his neighborhood who was relentlessly teased and bullied by local kids because of his apparent lack of intelligence. But when his parents bought a piano, that same kid suddenly began filling the neighborhood with the most amazing music, having taken nary a lesson. The second spark came from Groom’s time as a football-crazed student at the University of Alabama.
“When I was on the English faculty at Alabama, I proposed a course on the history of college football in literature, and we convinced Winston to participate,” said Miller, who grew up a dedicated Ohio State fan but came to love the Crimson Tide after four years of teaching in Tuscaloosa. His class covered topics ranging from college football in literature (see: F. Scott Fitzgerald’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”) to the game’s secret history of steering academics (why do you think the Ivy League was formed?). “Winston Groom’s freshman year was 1961, Bryant’s first national title, and his final year was ’64, Bryant’s second national title. And he would always say, ‘You should have seen Namath before he blew out his knee,'”
Groom, who died Sept. 17, 2020, just as his beloved Tide were beginning their roll toward Nick Saban’s sixth and final national title in T-Town, often said that being a student during the Bryant era taught him “the importance of winning.” He liked to compare being the author of a book to being a head coach. “As a writer, you are the commanding general,” he explained to Miller’s class in 2012. “It is your job to make sure that everything you do is as perfect as you can get it.”
Groom’s written version of Gump was far less perfect than the character in the film. The film version was also a hell of a lot smaller. In the movie, Gump’s frame is an even 6 feet tall, weighing in at 175 pounds, which is what Tom Hanks describes as his frame at the time. In the novel, Gump is massive, standing 6-6 and making the scales creak at a hefty 240. On the written page, he doesn’t return kicks. Groom’s Bryant envisions Gump as a wide receiver and has him constantly drilling pass routes in practice. But when Gump struggles to mentally digest the playbook, Bear decides to pivot to a strategy of “We is gonna turn your big ass loose,” and Forrest Gump becomes a halfback.
In his first game, the season opener against Georgia, Gump scores four touchdowns in a 35-3 rout of the Dawgs. The Tide won the national title during a time when titles were awarded before bowl games were played. Good thing. The semi-fictional Bama team lost to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl after Kenny Stabler, who was supposed to throw the ball to No. 44 for what would have been Gump’s third TD of the game, instead threw it out of bounds when he mistakenly thought it was third down, not fourth.
“As with most of what Winston wrote about Gump and college football, that was based in truth,” Miller said. “The ’64 team went undefeated in the regular season and won the national championship but lost to Texas in the Orange Bowl. And Kenny Stabler did make that infamous mistake, but it was in the Tennessee game the following year.”
“Now you wouldn’t believe me if I told you, but I could run like the wind blows.”
Almost exactly six decades after Stabler’s mistake that led to a tie, the Vols and Tide were once again on the field for the Third Saturday in October. It was Oct. 19, 2024, and 101,910 of the 101,915 people in attendance were watching No. 7 Alabama battle No. 11 Tennessee in Knoxville. The five who were not were hunkered down in a corner of the Neyland Stadium media box. A sportswriter was showing four NFL scouts footage of a fictional college football player and asking for a talent assessment.
Said one: “He’s too one-dimensional. It’s all straight-line, like a track guy trying to become a football player.”
Replied another: “Who gives a damn about that? Look how fast he is. Has anyone clocked him?”
They were told that in the novel, Bryant says Gump runs the “hunrit yards” in 9.5 seconds. But before it could be explained what that translates to in NFL draft combine 40-yard dash speed, one of the scouts already had a watch on Gump’s TD return against Tulane.
“I’ve got him at 4.5 in the 40. Sign his ass up,” he declared. “I’m not using a high-round draft pick on him. My bosses wouldn’t do that anyway because you know he’s going to bomb the s— out of the interviews. But if we can take guys who have never played football and turn them into All-Pros just based on how strong or fast they are” — see: Ziggy Ansah and current Bills OT Travis Clayton — “then I think I’d take a chance on a dude this fast.”
Some 500 miles south of Knoxville, in Mobile, Alabama, another group of evaluators watched that same film, the only game film that exists of their local hero. Among them is Jim Nagy, senior director of the Reese’s Senior Bowl, the launching pad for countless college-to-pro football prospects.
“He clearly lacks some focus,” he said. “Great straight-line speed but, man, he looks straight-line. A really linear athlete. Not gonna make many people miss, but he hits it. He’s pulling away; he’s got some juice.”
Then Nagy sounds like novel-version Bear Bryant. “As a receiver, what are we going to do with this guy? He’s kind of a one-trick pony … but I think we could get something out of him on vertical routes, go routes. Down here at the Senior Bowl, he’d be a hard guy to defend on one-on-ones.”
Ultimately, Nagy and his staff decided they would extend an invitation to Gump for the Senior Bowl. After all, Gump did grow up just down the road in Greenbow. But there are two problems. Gump is too senior for the Senior Bowl. He’s around 84 years old now. Also, Greenbow doesn’t exist. Neither does the Legion Field he ran over and through and out of. Well, it does, sort of …
“Some people don’t think miracles happen. Well, they do.”
Gump’s home stadium in the movie is located a couple of time zones west of Alabama. Who knows? Perhaps during his 3-year, 2-month, 14-day and 16-hour crisscrossing run of America, Gump looked over his shoulder along Chavez Avenue at the football stadium of East Los Angeles College and thought to himself, “Well, that place looks familiar.”
Weingart Stadium was built in 1951, home of the ELAC Huskies. After a major renovation in 1984, the seating capacity was boosted to 22,355. That’s big for a community college, but not big enough to resemble Legion Field. So director Robert Zemeckis turned to his longtime collaborator and special effects legend Ken Ralston, the original Industrial Light & Magic guru who helped shape the Star Wars galaxy and helped Zemeckis send Doc Brown’s gigawatts-powered DeLorean back to the future.
Ralston and his crew took a group of several hundred extras dressed as Alabama fans and moved them from section to section of Weingart Stadium, eventually piecing each frame of film together like a jigsaw puzzle. This created not only a backdrop of packed stands, but also the added illusion of an upper deck. For Gump’s kick return action scenes, stadium flip cards spelled out “GO ALABAMA,” “GO FORREST” and “STOP.”
“This was kind of at the start of all the computerized special effects we have now, so when you were there the place was empty, but then when you saw the movie you were like, ‘Where’d all those people come from?'” recalled Sonny Shroyer, who played Bear Bryant. If you recognize the name, it’s because he was also Enos, the hapless deputy from “The Dukes of Hazzard.” Enos donned the houndstooth fedora at ELAC as well as Beaufort, South Carolina, where the stand-in for Greenbow High was located. “I can tell you this, though: There were no special effects used for the double who ran for Tom Hanks in the wide shots. That guy could fly. And then when we did the close-ups, it turned out that Tom could too.”
Shroyer, who accepted a football scholarship to Florida State but after injuries graduated from Georgia, was in the same room with Bryant once, at a charity golf tournament hosted by fellow TV icon George Lindsay, aka Goober from “The Andy Griffith Show.” So, with those credentials, an evaluation of Forrest Gump the football player, please, Enos … er, Coach Bryant?
“All I know is I saw him touch the ball twice and he scored twice.”
“Momma always said you can tell a lot about a person by their shoes, where they’re going, where they’ve been.”
Gabriel Mangrum has seen Forrest Gump touch the ball much more than that. Like, 281 times to be exact. Mangrum, known as GManski to his social media followers, is a former wide receiver for the Fitchburg (Massachusetts) State Falcons who graduated earlier this year with a degree in film and theater. Born in Texas and a diehard Dallas Cowboys fan, the aspiring actor was already posting his meticulous football talent evaluations to social media. Then he started doing the same with famous football players from the silver screen, everyone from Rudy Ruettiger to “The Waterboy.”
When the resurrected EA Sports College Football video game dropped earlier this year, Mangrum painstakingly created Forrest Gump — a 99 rating for speed, lowest possible rating for intelligence — added him to the current Crimson Tide roster and proceeded to manually play every single Alabama down in season mode to see what would happen.
It’s strange going from no views to actually having a lot of people enjoy my work😅 Appreciate y’all who support💯 be sure to check out the new vid 👀https://t.co/LFKimFuyC8 pic.twitter.com/b55yN1Oe8n
— Gmanski (@gmanski3) August 3, 2024
“I rated him a one-star because he was literally coming off the street, just as he did in the movie,” Mangrum explained of his Gump creation. Of course, the PS5 processor didn’t start Gump. He didn’t even play. But Mangrum also ran every weekday practice session between games, and No. 44’s speed became too much to ignore. By midseason, he was on the field. And just as happened in both the book and movie, the first time digital Forrest Gump got his hands on the football, he ran straight to paydirt.
“When I ran with him, I worked hard to run just like he did in the movie,” Mangrum said. “He never jukes. Ever. And when he cuts, he turns his whole body, runs toward the sideline, and then turns toward the end zone, whole body again. That’s what I did. And he couldn’t be stopped.”
Forrest Gump’s final virtual 2024 stats: 1,487 yards, good for second in the nation (and 184 more than Boise State Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty), via only 206 rushes, good for an FBS-best 7.2 yards per carry; 165.2 yards per game and 17 touchdowns, also second in the nation. In addition, Gump hauled in 75 catches for 1,065 yards and nine TDs, easily the best among running backs. Along the way, the All-American led the Tide to a national title, as Bama beat Notre Dame 43-0 in the CFP National Championship game, of which Gump was named Most Outstanding Player.
“The only issues were that he didn’t fumble much, but when he did, it was usually at the worst time,” Mangrum said, adding, “And you might have noticed that at LSU, during the pregame, Forrest is over there celebrating with the wrong team.”
“What’s my destiny, Mama?” “You’re gonna have to figure that out for yourself.”
We attempted to interview the man who played Gump himself, while Hanks was making the promotional rounds for his latest film, “Here,” also directed by Zemeckis and costarring the actress who played Gump’s girlfriend Jenny, Robin Wright. His brief response was a reminder that he was no college football skills expert. He’s more of a baseball guy. Though it is worth noting that he did get in a vicious shot on behalf of his faux alma mater ahead of last year’s Alabama-LSU game.
During a speech at the World War II Museum in New Orleans, which he co-founded, he said, “Hope, faith, and collective effort may even lead to LSU beating Alabama tomorrow. If that can happen, ladies and gentlemen, we can accomplish anything.”
Tom Hanks, who famously played fictional Alabama football player Forrest Gump, makes a brief comment about LSU’s upcoming game against the Crimson Tide during a speech at a World War II museum in New Orleans. pic.twitter.com/RbAgv7zON7
— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) November 3, 2023
While not ready to play the role of an NFL scout, the two-time Oscar winner did praise the physical prowess that came with becoming No. 44.
“I worked out quite a bit, and it was all running. My buttocks, as Forrest would put it, were in particularly spectacular condition. If it shows up on our television, as it will from time to time, my wife [actress Rita Wilson] will request that it stay on until she gets to see me running away from the camera. My touchdown play, as it were.”
The touchdown play for this story came just as “Here” was arriving in theaters. It came Nov. 8 in Oxford, Mississippi, on the eve of Ole Miss’s rainy upset victory over Georgia. Trying to explain the premise of this story to a media pal, this very writer bemoaned, “The only thing missing is a chance to talk to Forrest Gump himself.”
The pal replied, pointing, “Well, why don’t you? There he is.”
And he was. Like a mirage on a desert highway around the 1-hour, 57-minute mark of an Oscar-winning film, Forrest Gump himself was running around the Grove, attempting to crash the show of another Alabama legend, Paul Finebaum. I shouted to him, “Run, Forrest, run! Over here!”
When you’re working on a Forrest Gump story and assume you won’t be able to interview Forrest Gump but then you’re at The Grove in Oxford and Forrest Gump shows up… pic.twitter.com/FfhpDkyfwg
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) November 20, 2024
My question was simple. Forrest Gump, you didn’t get to play much college football, at least that we saw. So how do you think you would have fared in the National Football League?
“Aw man, I’d still be running. But I hit that portal. There’s a big party in the ‘Sip. So, Hotty Toddy ever since I left Bama. Life couldn’t be any better …” Then Forrest (real name: John Nance) broke into a dance.
The touchdown dance of a man with an IQ of 75, but an EA Sports talent rating of 99.
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Bradford Doolittle
ORLANDO, Fla. — Jeff Kent, who holds the record for home runs by a second baseman, was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame on Sunday.
Kent, 57, was named on 14 of 16 ballots by the contemporary baseball era committee, two more than he needed for induction.
Just as noteworthy as Kent’s selection were the names of those who didn’t garner enough support, which included all-time home run leader Barry Bonds, 354-game winner Roger Clemens, two MVPs from the 1980s, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, and Gary Sheffield, who slugged 509 career homers.
Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield and Dodgers great Fernando Valenzuela were named on fewer than five ballots. According to a new protocol introduced by the Hall of Fame that went into effect with this ballot, players drawing five or fewer votes won’t be eligible the next time their era is considered. They can be nominated again in a subsequent cycle, but if they fall short of five votes again, they will not be eligible for future consideration.
The candidacies of Bonds and Clemens have long been among the most hotly debated among Hall of Fame aficionados because of their association with PEDs. With Sunday’s results, they moved one step closer to what will ostensibly be permanent exclusion from the sport’s highest honor.
If Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield and Valenzuela are nominated when their era comes around in 2031 and fall short of five votes again, it will be their last shot at enshrinement under the current guidelines.
Kent, whose best seasons were with the San Francisco Giants as Bonds’ teammate, continued his longstanding neutral stance on Bonds’ candidacy, declining to offer an opinion on whether or not he believes Bonds should get in.
“Barry was a good teammate of mine,” Kent said. “He was a guy that I motivated and pushed. We knocked heads a little bit. He was a guy that motivated me at times, in frustration, in love, at times both.
“Barry was one of the best players I ever saw play the game, amazing. For me, I’ve always said that. I’ve always avoided the specific answer you’re looking for, because I don’t have one. I don’t. I’m not a voter.”
Kent played 17 seasons in the majors for six different franchises and grew emotional at times as he recollected the different stops in a now-Hall of Fame career that ended in 2008. He remained on the BBWAA ballot for all 10 years of his eligibility after retiring, but topped out at 46.5% in 2023, his last year.
“The time had gone by, and you just leave it alone, and I left it alone,” Kent said. “I loved the game, and everything I gave to the game I left there on the field. This moment today, over the last few days, I was absolutely unprepared. Emotionally unstable.”
A five-time All-Star, Kent was named NL MVP in 2000 as a member of the Giants, who he set a career high with a .334 average while posting 33 homers and 125 RBIs. Kent hit 377 career homers, 351 as a second baseman, a record for the position.
Kent is the 62nd player elected to the Hall who played for the Giants. He also played for Toronto, the New York Mets, Cleveland, Houston and the Dodgers. Now, he’ll play symbolically for baseball’s most exclusive team — those with plaques hanging in Cooperstown, New York.
“I have not walked through the halls of the Hall of Fame,” Kent said. “And that’s going to be overwhelming once I get in there.”
Carlos Delgado was named on nine ballots, the second-highest total among the eight under consideration. Mattingly and Murphy received six votes apiece. All three are eligible to be nominated again when the contemporary era is next considered in 2028.
Next up on the Hall calendar is voting by the BBWAA on this year’s primary Hall of Fame ballot. Those results will be announced on Jan. 20.
Anyone selected through that process will join Kent in being inducted on July 26, 2026, on the grounds of the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown.
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David Hale
Twelve years into the College Football Playoff, the committee may have been tasked with its toughest decision yet.
On one hand, there’s Alabama, the bluest of blue bloods, a team that played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country, with seven wins over FPI top-40 opponents, and whose final loss — the one that put the Tide squarely on the bubble — came in the SEC championship game, while others like Miami and Notre Dame sat at home.
On the other hand, there’s Notre Dame, the most storied program in the sport’s history with a legion of fans from coast to coast. The Irish are playing exceptional football, winning 10 straight all by double digits, and their lone losses, way back in August and early September, came to two other top-tier teams by a combined four points.
Then on the metaphorical third hand is Miami, a team that began the season with fireworks, sagged in the middle, then responded to its No. 18 placement in the first set of rankings by reeling off four straight wins by an average of 27 points per game. Oh, and Miami holds a head-to-head win over Notre Dame, albeit one that came in the first week of the season and that the committee may or may not consider from week to week.
Spread around a few garnishes of Texas, Vanderbilt and BYU on the plate and add a dessert course of a Duke-JMU argument that could result in bumping a Power 4 conference from the playoff entirely and it’s a tough year to be a committee member.
There have been others, of course. In 2014, the committee punted on a tricky Baylor-TCU debate in favor of Ohio State, and the Buckeyes won it all. In 2017, amid a chaotic final week, the committee handed its final bid to Alabama, despite its absence from the SEC championship game, and the Tide went on to win a championship. In 2023, the committee snubbed an undefeated Florida State, because of an injury to QB Jordan Travis, and the Seminoles have gone on to lose 18 of their next 25 games.
The results after a controversial decision always seem to lead to the same conclusion: The committee got things right.
And yet, as the committee so often notes after each rankings release, the results alone don’t tell the whole story. In football, perhaps more than any other sport, the process matters. And the committee’s process, from the outset of that first playoff 12 years ago, has been a mess.
The ultimate verdict of Sunday’s final ranking showcased the disaster vividly.
Step away from the whole process, and the decision to rank Miami ahead of Notre Dame makes perfect sense. They have the same record. Miami won head-to-head. Most rational folks, aligned with neither side, would acknowledge the committee came to a sensible conclusion.
But look at the process and try to follow the committee’s rationale, and it’s like climbing the stairs in an M.C. Escher painting.
In the first ranking, Notre Dame was eight spots ahead of Miami. Both won out, both by big margins, and each week along the way, Notre Dame remained ahead of Miami. Last week, Alabama — fresh off a near disaster in the Iron Bowl — leapfrogged Notre Dame despite the Irish dominating Stanford 49-20. That was a head-scratcher, unless, of course, you believed the minor conspiracy that the committee was setting up a direct comparison between Miami and Notre Dame by having them ranked one right after the other.
And, what do you know, that’s what we got. After BYU lost its conference championship, the Cougars dropped in the rankings — something that didn’t happen to Alabama for a similar blowout defeat, it should be noted — and Notre Dame and Miami were separated by nothing other than the committee’s whims.
1:31
Saban hopes Notre Dame’s snub leads to CFP changes
Nick Saban gives his thoughts on the structure of the College Football Playoff in light of Notre Dame being left out.
So while both sat home on their couches on championship weekend, Miami somehow did enough to push its way into the playoff instead of Notre Dame.
Is it a reasonable conclusion? Yes!
Is it a ridiculous process that got us here? A thousand yeses!
Let’s consider how the committee evaluates teams for a moment. Which variables matter most? We’ve gone from Florida State’s battle against game control in 2014 to Notre Dame’s résumé boasting two quality losses in 2025.
Does head-to-head matter? For five weeks it might not, but in the last week it clearly did.
The committee is supposed to evaluate a school’s entire body of work, but does that mean a September loss can’t be overshadowed by clear and obvious growth throughout a season?
Do conference championships matter? Winning them is supposed to be a factor — though, ask 2023 Florida State about that — so shouldn’t a loss matter, too? A year ago, committee chair Warde Manuel said it might — including docking SMU two spots after a three-point loss to Clemson in the ACC conference championship game, even if it didn’t knock the Mustangs out of the playoff. But Alabama’s 21-point loss Saturday meant nothing.
Ranked wins are great, but of course the committee decides who earns the distinction of being ranked. The eye test is the best argument for one team, the data for another, and no one can be sure which metric matters more, because again, it depends. For a committee composed primarily of former coaches and active ADs, the human element — perceptions, expectations, projections, biases and misunderstandings — loom like a cloud over every mention of strength of record or game control.
Or boil it down to the most basic debate: Are we trying to find the best teams or the most deserving? And how do we even define those two things? From week to week, the answer is a shrug emoji and a Mad Libs of metrics and records pieced together like those magnetic words people put on their refrigerator.
All of this leads to arguments, which is likely a feature of the system, not a bug. Debate is part of the DNA of sports. But ironically, no one seems to contradict the committee more than the committee itself. The case for Team A so often sounds like the mirror image of the case against Team B. Alabama jumped Notre Dame in last week’s rankings after an ugly win over Auburn, but Miami’s dominant victory on the road against a ranked Pitt team made no difference. When Texas A&M needed a Houdini act to beat South Carolina, that wasn’t a knock on the Aggies, the committee chair said, but when Alabama narrowly escaped those same Gamecocks, it was a flaw in the Tide’s résumé. Ranked wins are great — but only if the team was ranked at the time, or maybe if it ends up ranked in the future. Also, the committee does the ranking so, whew.
And when those explanations get parsed by fans in the aftermath of perplexing decisions — Alabama’s “impressive” seven-point win over 5-7 Auburn allowing the Tide to leapfrog Notre Dame after a 29-point Irish win over 4-8 Stanford, for example — the outcome isn’t just disagreements and debate. It’s conspiratorial thinking. It’s a hollowing out of trust in the process. It’s a belief that the deck is stacked ahead of time. And that’s a disservice to the sport, the teams involved, and the committee itself. Good folks work hard and care about their role, but because their process is so immensely flawed, the presumption of nefarious motives isn’t just fodder for the message boards, but increasingly, mainstream thinking.
Imagine for a moment this wasn’t about college football. Imagine instead this was clinical trials for a new drug or a prized astrophysicist trying to explain an anomaly deep in outer space or, heck, assembling a bookshelf you bought from IKEA. Any such endeavor requires not just a result that seems to work, but a process that can be repeated, again and again, by a completely different set of people, before anyone gives it enough credence that a majority of people — even ones who don’t understand the process at all — believe in the work that was done and trust the results provided.
We don’t have to understand Einstein’s theory of relativity to believe in its basic principles. Relativity remains a theory, not a fact, but it is commonly accepted around the world by brilliant scientists and guys watching “Interstellar” at 3 a.m. on cable alike, because we can all appreciate a stringent process, rigorous testing, and an ability to withstand criticism from dissenting voices.
If we can do that for quantum physics, then surely we can do that for a college football playoff, right?
Instead, we’ll continue to argue. That’s OK. The arguments are part of the fun. But at the foundation of those arguments are real people — players, coaches, administrators, support staffs and even the fans. While no result will make everyone happy, the least this sport owes them is a process they can understand.
Way back on Nov. 4, Notre Dame was 6-2 with a three-point loss to Miami on its résumé. The committee believed the Irish were the No. 10 team in the country.
On that same date, Miami was 6-2 with a three-point win over Notre Dame on its résumé. The committee believed the Canes were the No. 18 team in the country.
This isn’t complicated math, but just for clarity’s sake: Five weeks ago, these two teams had the same record, Miami had a head-to-head win, and the committee believed Notre Dame was eight spots better. That would certainly seem to indicate a sincere and strong belief that, the Week 1 result be damned, the Irish were clearly the better team overall.
So, what has happened since then?
Notre Dame is 4-0 with a win over a ranked team and an average margin of 38 points per game. Miami is 4-0 with a win over a ranked team and an average margin of 27.5 points per game.
And yet, when the committee put its rankings together this time around, Miami is one spot ahead of Notre Dame.
There is every reason to be suspicious of the committee’s initial evaluation of these two teams. Perhaps those Nov. 4 rankings were a mistake. But the committee waited five weeks to correct that mistake, and during that span, the Irish absolutely demoralized everyone they played — including two teams that Miami also played, but Notre Dame won by more.
Nothing that has happened between the first rankings and the last suggests Notre Dame got worse relative to Miami, and yet a full nine spots in the rankings have shifted between the two.
If this was all about the committee playing the long game, using the opening scenes to set up a dramatic showdown between Miami and Notre Dame in the final act, then kudos for creating some exceptional TV.
As far as offering an honest weekly evaluation of college football teams, however, this was an absurd farce that served as a slap in the face to coach Marcus Freeman and his team and leaves us without the chance to see arguably the best player in the country, Jeremiyah Love, in the biggest games of the year.
Typically the difference between a No. 6 and a No. 7 ranking is negligible. Both get a home game in the first round, both have a good shot to advance.
This year, however, it’s a little different.
Thanks to the ACC’s pratfall of a season, two Group of 5 teams made the final field. That means both the No. 5 seed and the No. 6 seed get to play teams from outside the big-boy conferences, while the No. 7 seed lands a genuine contender on the docket in Round 1.
The loser of this lottery is Texas A&M, and that’s a pretty tough take to defend.
Let’s look at the résumés.
Team A: No. 10 in FPI, best win vs. FPI No. 3, loss to FPI No. 13, No. 3 strength of record, five wins vs. bowl-eligible teams, six wins vs. FPI top 40
Team B: No. 12 in FPI, best win vs. FPI No. 15, loss to SP+ No. 6, No 6 strength of record, four wins vs. bowl-eligible teams, four wins vs. FPI top 40
They’re close, but the edge in nearly every metric is with Team A. That’s Texas A&M.
Or how about this: Against five common opponents, A&M has a scoring edge of 2 points, including a far better win over LSU, their best common foe.
Is it splitting hairs? Of course, but that’s the committee’s job. And the results of that hair-splitting are the difference between Ole Miss getting a rematch with a Tulane team it beat by 35 in September or facing off against a red-hot Miami eager to prove it belonged in the field.
3. Greg Sankey
On Saturday, the SEC commissioner was asked to state his case for his league’s bubble teams. He offered an inclusive take.
“I view that there are seven of our teams at the conclusion of the 12-game season over 14 weeks that merit inclusion in the playoff,” Sankey said.
And yet, here we are, with just a measly five SEC teams in the field, including one getting a first-round bye and three hosting home games. It’s a slap in the face!
Truth is, Vanderbilt was quite good this year, with a strength of record ahead of both Notre Dame and Miami, and the world would simply be a better place with Diego Pavia in the playoff.
Truth is, if the goal of the playoff is to seed it with the best teams — the teams capable of beating other elite teams and making a run for a championship — then Texas had as good a case as anyone, with head-to-head wins over Oklahoma, Vandy and Texas A&M.
Heck, compare these two résumés:
Team A: Three losses, the worst loss to FPI No. 53 by eight and three wins vs. FPI top-15 teams
Team B: Three losses, the worst loss to FPI No. 74 by 14 and two wins vs. FPI top-15 teams
Team A also has a 17-point win over a team that beat Team B.
So, who would you take?
Don’t ask Sankey. His answer is both. But Team A is Texas and Team B is Alabama, and the Longhorns have looked markedly better over the past month of the season than the flailing Tide.
You have to hand it to Manny Diaz. The man can make a coherent argument for a lost cause.
“We played 10 Power 4 teams. Comparing us to James Madison, for example, who had a fantastic season — their strength of schedule is in the 100s. Ours is in the 50s. Seven wins in our conference. Seven Power 4 wins as opposed to zero Power 4 wins. The ACC champions. … I’m watching them play Troy at home [in the Sun Belt championship] and Troy had a backup quarterback in for most of the game, right? And it’s a three-point game until, really, the last few minutes of the game when they were able to pull away. They won the game and their conference, but you just can’t compare going through the Sun Belt this year — the Sun Belt has been a really good conference in years past, but most of their top teams are just having down years. They’re not challenged the way they would’ve been going through a normal Sun Belt schedule. Then you start comparing strength of schedule — if you simply go into wins and losses, you have to look at who you’re playing against. That’s the whole point of why you play a Power 4 schedule. There’s a reason these coaches are all leaving to take Power 4 jobs. There’s a recognition that’s where the best competition is.”
That was no small jab at JMU, whose coach, Bob Chesney, is leaving for a Power 4 job at UCLA.
It also probably gets Diaz removed from Sun Belt commissioner Keith Gill’s Christmas card list, which given that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips can’t be pleased with Duke torpedoing his conference’s reputation by winning the league with five losses, is going to leave a lot of extra space on Diaz’s mantle this holiday season.
Alabama lost a championship game by 21 points to a top-four team. It didn’t budge in the rankings.
BYU lost a championship game by 27 points to a top-four team. It dropped a spot.
Did it ultimately matter for the Cougars? No. They weren’t sniffing the playoff unless they beat Texas Tech. But on principle, they ought to be angry about the double standard.
Moreover, BYU was the most overlooked team all season — the one that had a good case, a comparable résumé, and virtually no one outside of Provo cheerleading for them.
Which, oddly enough, feels about the same as last year, when BYU had a perfectly good case alongside Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina, and no one seemed to bat an eye when they finished a distant 17th — behind Clemson, even — in the committee’s final ranking.
Also angry this week: Virginia Cavaliers (10-3, No. 19 and dropped two spots — more than any other conference championship game loser, despite playing the closest conference championship game), Tennessee Volunteers, LSU Tigers, Illinois Fighting Illini and Missouri Tigers (all 8-4, all unranked, and all with a better strength of record than the Arizona Wildcats or the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets), Lane Kiffin (astonished the committee didn’t value his departure more).
College football’s championship weekend delivered a mix of compelling drama and blowouts.
In Atlanta, Georgia dominated Alabama and won the SEC for a second year in a row. The Bulldogs held the Tide to 209 total yards and locked up a first-round bye. UGA, the No. 3 seed, will play the winner of the matchup of No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Tulane in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
It was a similar story in the Big 12 where Texas Tech broke open the game with BYU in the second half. The Red Raiders forced four turnovers in the 34-7 win. Texas Tech is the No. 4 seed and will face either No. 5 Oregon or No. 12 James Madison in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
The real drama was reserved for the Big Ten and ACC championships. Indiana won its first conference title since 1967 and took down No. 1 Ohio State. The Hoosiers will be the No. 1 seed while the Buckeyes fell just one spot to No. 2 The undefeated Hoosiers will have their first playoff game at the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential against the winner of the No. 8 Oklahoma-No. 9 Alabama matchup. Ohio State faces the winner of No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
Duke‘s upset of Virginia in the ACC title game opened the door for two Group of 5 teams — Tulane (which won the American) and James Madison (Sun Belt winner).
After months of rankings, seedings and countless debates, we have a 12-team bracket that brings about plenty of enticing questions and intriguing possibilities.
Can Oregon, Indiana, Texas A&M or Texas Tech bring home its first national title? Can Ohio State repeat? Will a Group of 5 team get its first-ever CFP win?
Here are our full picks for the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Andrea Adelson
First round
Oregon 55, JMU 13
Bama 20, Oklahoma 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Quarterfinals
Oregon 35, Texas Tech 30
Indiana 30, Alabama 20
Georgia 40, Ole Miss 24
Ohio State 24, Miami 21
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 35, Oregon 31
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Kyle Bonagura
First round
Oregon 49, James Madison 24
Texas A&M 31, Miami 24
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 24
Alabama 31, Oklahoma 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 28, Oregon 27
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 14
Indiana 35, Alabama 27
Semifinals
Ohio State 24, Georgia 17
Indiana 28, Texas Tech 24
National title game
Indiana 17, Ohio State 10
Bill Connelly
First round
Oregon 41, James Madison 24
Oklahoma 27, Alabama 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 20
Texas A&M 31, Miami 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 38, Oregon 34
Indiana 30, Oklahoma 7
Georgia 27, Ole Miss 23
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 13
Semifinals
Texas Tech 27, Indiana 23
Georgia 17, Ohio State 16
National title game
Texas Tech 28, Georgia 20
David Hale
First round
Oregon 35, JMU 13
Ole Miss 48, Tulane 24
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 10
Miami 27, Texas A&M 21
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 21
Indiana 20, Alabama 10
Georgia 30, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 34, Miami 24
Semifinals
Indiana 30, Texas Tech 28
Georgia 27, Ohio State 24
National title game
Georgia 24, Indiana 20
Eli Lederman
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 20
Alabama 21, Oklahoma 10
Texas A&M 38, Miami 31
Quarterfinals
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 17
Indiana 23, Alabama 10
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 30
Ohio State 30, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Oregon 17
Georgia 27, Ohio State 20
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 17
Max Olson
First round
Oregon 34, James Madison 17
Alabama 13, Oklahoma 10
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 14
Texas A&M 27, Miami 24
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 27, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 17
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 31
Ohio State 27, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 17, Texas Tech 16
Georgia 35, Ohio State 31
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 20
Adam Rittenberg
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 16
Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
National title game
Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Mark Schlabach
First round
Oregon 51, JMU 17
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 14
Ole Miss 42, Tulane 20
Miami 28, Texas A&M 20
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 35, Oregon 31
Indiana 31, Alabama 14
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 28
Ohio State 24, Miami 17
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 42, Texas Tech 38
National title game
Indiana 24, Ohio State 20
Jake Trotter
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Oklahoma 17, Alabama 16
Ole Miss 30, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 23
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 25, Oregon 17
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 13
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 14
Ohio State 21, Miami 13
Semifinals
Indiana 19, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 16, Georgia 14
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Paolo Uggetti
First round
Oklahoma 21, Alabama 17
Oregon 38, JMU 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 21
Quarterfinals
Indiana 34, Oklahoma 20
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 21
Georgia 21, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 23, Oregon 20
Georgia 24, Ohio State 17
National title game
Indiana 21, Georgia 17
Dave Wilson
First round
Oregon 44, James Madison 13
Texas A&M 27, Miami 17
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 24
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 17
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 20
Georgia 44, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 21, Texas A&M 20
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 10
Semifinals
Georgia 27, Ohio State 17
Indiana 24, Texas Tech 17
National title game
Georgia, 17, Indiana 14
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