CFP Anger Index: The Big 12 might be shut out? Clemson is back in the mix?
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
What’s the value of a win?
This isn’t a rhetorical question. It’s something the committee should be asking on a weekly basis. We tend to discuss win-loss records in concrete terms, then debate résumés in subjective ones, and that’s where fans, pundits and, especially, the committee run into trouble.
For example, when a reporter asked Curt Cignetti if his Indiana Hoosiers still belonged in the playoff after a blowout loss to Ohio State, he responded with a mix of befuddlement and indignation. How could a team with a 10-1 record in the Big Ten not be in the playoff?
To which any critic might rightfully argue that Indiana’s one loss — by 23 to the only SP+ top-30 team on their schedule — said more about the Hoosiers than the 10 wins did.
On the other hand, there’s Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, who this week suggested it would be an outrage if a Group of 5 champion eclipsed his conference for the final playoff bye (which might actually be the least of his problems). He rattled off his fair share of data points — strength of schedule, margin of victory, advanced metrics — that make a clear-cut case for the Big 12. The only problem? The Big 12 champ might have as many as two more losses than the Group of 5’s representative.
Or, more succinctly: The Big Ten thinks its teams are best, because they’ve lost fewer games, while the SEC thinks its teams are best, because they’ve played a tougher schedule.
So, which is it?
Let’s apply some math.
If we use the Football Power Index’s pregame win expectation, we can get an approximate “degree of difficulty” on each win.
Indiana, to Cignetti’s point, might not have beaten great teams, but winning is still hard. The odds, by the FPI, of winning all 10 of the Hoosiers’ victories come out to about 12%.
Compare that with Texas. The Longhorns have had a particularly soft schedule, too, and like Indiana, they were overmatched in their one serious test (against Georgia). Using those same FPI odds, the chances Texas would’ve won the 10 games it has are actually pretty good — 42.4%, or a little less than a coin flip.
So by that logic, Indiana’s 10-1 record is far more impressive than Texas’ 10-1 record.
Of course, those pregame win projections also account for an important variable: team quality. Indiana’s odds were lower because the FPI innately understands that Texas is a better team, in terms of talent, than Indiana.
So what if we just go by strength of schedule?
That’s tricky, too. Indiana’s schedule strength entering last week stood at an embarrassing 106th nationally. Then the Hoosiers played Ohio State, and its strength of schedule jumped to No. 51. So did the Hoosiers’ record get any more impressive as a result? Of course not! They won their 10 games against the 106th-best schedule and lost a game against, effectively, the No. 1 toughest schedule of Week 13 (though certainly Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama might quibble with that analysis).
This is where ESPN’s strength-of-record metric is helpful. It accounts for both opponent strength and the actual outcome. It suggests Texas (at No. 5) is ahead of Indiana (at No. 7). But what does that actually mean? The answer is not much. If we look at the raw numbers on strength of record, Texas’ score is only about 3% better than Indiana’s. The difference is negligible — and that’s before we remember that opponent quality is both subjective and an independent variable. In other words, Texas doesn’t control how good its opponents are. Is it the Longhorns’ fault Michigan, last season’s national champion, isn’t very good in 2024? Is it Texas’ fault that, in a conference with a dozen solid teams, the SEC office handed out a schedule that featured only two genuinely good opponents? Texas is the same team regardless of who it plays. We’d just have a better gauge of how good that team is if it had played a few more quality opponents. Strength of schedule is a measure of certainty not quality.
Or, perhaps a better example: SMU has wins against Louisville and Pitt and a close loss to BYU. Three weeks ago, BYU and Pitt were undefeated and Louisville was a top-25 team. That’s a strong résumé (not that the committee noticed). But BYU has lost two straight, Pitt has dropped three in a row and Louisville delivered one of the most inexplicably disastrous losses in recent college football history against Stanford. Suddenly SMU — through absolutely no fault of its own — has a much less impressive résumé, long after the games in question were actually played.
Let’s get back to our central question then: What is a win worth?
In nearly every other sport the answer is simple. A win is worth a win, or at least a non-loss. But in college football, it’s all debatable, which is why we have a committee.
The problem, of course, is the committee debates are secret and its explanations are often paradoxical. Rankings often seem less about a genuine appreciation for what a team has done than a speculative assumption about what it might do in a hypothetical future or alternate timeline, and this season, more than any in recent memory, that seems a fool’s errand.
AP poll:
No. 5 lost to NIU
6 has multiple losses to 3-loss teams
7 lost to Ark
8 lost to GT
13 lost to Vandy & Okla
14 lost to TxTech & Cincy
15 lost to UF & UK
17 lost to TxTech & Kansas
18 lost to Okla
19 lost to Kansas
20 lost to Auburn
21 lost to Cuse
22 lost to Minn
23 lost…— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 25, 2024
So here we are. After a weekend of chaos around college football — particularly in the SEC — the committee is throwing ideas against the wall and simply reporting back what stuck.
Which brings us to this week’s Anger Index.
1. The Big 12
Imagine the following scenario: Boise State and Tulane both win out, earning conference championships.
The Big 12’s champion, however, is three-loss Kansas State, three-loss Colorado or even two-loss Iowa State. All of them are currently ranked behind both Tulane (the presumed AAC champ) and Boise State (the presumed Mountain West champ), which could lead us to this eventuality: Two Group of 5 champs get in, and the Big 12 is shut out completely.
This would be a genuine catastrophe for the conference, but it’s not a major leap to envision exactly that happening.
But would it be fair?
Yormark certainly doesn’t think so.
“Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12’s champion not getting a first-round bye,” Yormark told Yahoo Sports. “From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State.”
Well, sure, but the committee isn’t ranking strength of schedule, and right now, everyone but Arizona State sits behind multiple Group of 5 teams.
The problem is the committee seems incredibly concerned with the quality of losses, and in that respect, Boise State (one loss to Oregon) and Tulane (losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma) have far more explainable blemishes than Iowa State (losses to Kansas and Texas Tech), Colorado (losses to Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State) or even Arizona State (losses to Cincinnati and Texas Tech). The great irony is Kansas State has a pretty clear-cut case to be ahead of Tulane — a 34-27 head-to-head win — but the Wildcats’ loss to Houston looks much worse than, ironically, Tulane’s loss to … Kansas State.
For more context on the committee’s willingness to engage in this circular logic, go back to 2014 when the Big 12 was also left out, despite Baylor and TCU knocking on the door.
On the other hand, seeing Coach Prime left out in favor of a team from the American might create enough hot takes to power all the holiday lights in America.
2. Every team with playoff hopes not named Clemson (9-2, No. 12)
Somehow the Tigers, left for dead after a 33-21 loss to Louisville less than a month ago, are now our first team out.
Why is that exactly?
Clemson might have the single thinnest résumé of any team in the top 25 — and worse than a handful of unranked teams, too — when you dig into the numbers.
Clemson’s best win by SP+ came against Virginia Tech, which is ranked No. 31. The Hokies, 5-6 and on the verge of missing a bowl after a loss to Virginia in Week 14, are hardly an indicator that Clemson is capable of greatness.
Clemson’s next-best win came against Pitt by four points in a game marred by controversial officiating. That’s the same Pitt currently embroiled in a four-game losing streak. Pitt is the only Power 4 team with a winning record to lose to the Tigers.
The two teams with a pulse that have played Clemson both won handily — Georgia by 31 in the opener and Louisville by 12 on Nov. 2 in Death Valley.
So, what exactly is the rationale for ranking Clemson ahead of, say, Arizona State (three wins better than Virginia Tech), BYU (two), Kansas State (three), Alabama (four), Ole Miss (three) or South Carolina (three)? Iowa State, Arizona State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, BYU and Alabama all have better strength-of-record metrics than the Tigers.
The Gamecocks will at least get a chance to prove the point on the field Saturday in the Palmetto Bowl, and given where the committee has things now, it’s entirely possible that game is a de facto play-in for the playoff.
Whether Clemson belongs in that advantageous position, however, seems a dubious proposition.
Of course, if this is all setting the stage for the committee to deviously jump Alabama over an ACC team in the final poll, then we applaud their willingness to play the long game.
Let’s do a quick blind comparison here.
Team A: 9-2, 1-1 vs. FPI top 40, losses to teams with a combined record of 18-4 by a combined 8 points
Team B: 9-2, 0-2 vs. FPI top 40, losses to teams with a combined record of 14-8 by a combined 22 points
Would it help here if we noted both of these teams are from the Group of 5, but Team A has two wins vs. Power 4 opponents and Team B has none?
Pretty easy pick, right? Team A has a clear edge. Only Team A is UNLV, which ranks No. 22 and would be at a disadvantage for a playoff bid, even if it wins out.
Team B is Tulane, which checks in at No. 17.
Heck, UNLV might even have the best case of anyone for jumping the Big 12 by virtue of wins over Kansas and Houston — two teams that have beaten BYU, Colorado, Kansas State and Iowa State.
There are 10 teams from Power 4 conferences with 8-3 records after Week 13. Eight of them are ranked. The two that aren’t are both in the ACC, outside the AP Top 25 and with ample reason to be outraged.
Team A: No. 26 strength of record, best wins vs SP+ Nos. 36 and 52, losses to SP+ Nos. 16, 41 and 55 by a total of 37 points
Team B: No. 31 strength or record, best wins vs SP+ Nos. 31 and 44, losses to SP+ Nos. 8, 13 and 61 by a total of 33 points
Pretty darned close, right? Team B, however, has the better wins and the better losses, so the only thing supporting Team A seems to be a moderately better middle of the résumé.
So, who are they?
Team B is Duke. Team A is Colorado.
Syracuse is admittedly a tougher sell because of an ugly loss to Stanford, but the Orange have wins over No. 22 UNLV and a Georgia Tech team that knocked off Miami.
And yet, neither Duke nor Syracuse is ranked.
Does it really matter? Neither would sniff the playoff anyway.
And yet, as Syracuse QB Kyle McCord told ESPN, the recognition is meaningful to a young program with a first-year coach hoping to establish an identity — a story that’s true of Duke, too.
“You want to get that recognition,” McCord said. “That’s one of our goals is to be ranked by the CFP committee.”
And it matters, too, for the other teams making a case for the playoff. Miami faces Syracuse this week. It has already defeated Duke. SMU, still criminally underappreciated by the committee, has a win over Duke, too. When “ranked wins” are a metric — fraught as it might be — it matters.
What could Notre Dame possibly have to quibble with? After all, No. 5 is as good as it gets for the Fighting Irish, who cannot, by rule, earn a first-round bye.
But here’s the problem: They’re outflanked by three Big Ten teams and narrowly ahead of perhaps the most intimidating team in the country in Georgia. And because the first four spots have to go to conference champions, we could be looking at a final ranking that looks something like this: Oregon, Georgia, ACC champion and Big 12 or Group of 5 champion get the byes, with Ohio State, Texas and Penn State next in the pecking order.
That leaves Notre Dame poised precariously on the brink of landing a home game for the playoff.
The odds are still long that the Irish would be pushed beyond the top eight, but stranger things have happened. And it really shouldn’t be a topic for debate. Notre Dame has six wins vs. opponents that are currently 7-4 or better — the most of any team in the country — and is riding a nine-game winning streak in which it outscored the opposition by an average of 33 points.
Of course, there’s still that messy incident in Week 2 when the Irish fell to Northern Illinois. If those two played 100 more times, it would surprise no one if Notre Dame won 99 of them. But there’s no ignoring what happened, and for as good as the Irish look today, they also have the worst loss of any playoff contender by a country mile.
It sure would be a shame if that loss kept them from hosting a game in northern Indiana in mid-December.
Also angry: Iowa State, Kansas State, Curt Cignetti, Greg Sankey, anyone going to the grocery store on Wednesday.
The first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs has heated up, and the end of many series is approaching. How many teams will move on with clinching games Wednesday night?
There are two potential elimination games on the docket. First up is Montreal Canadiens–Washington Capitals (7 p.m., ESPN), with Alex Ovechkin & Co. on the verge of sealing the deal over the Habs.
Staggered just 30 minutes later is the possible final game of the 2025 edition of the Battle of Florida (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). Will the Florida Panthers get win No. 4, or can the Tampa Bay Lightning draw the series to 3-2?
Finally, the St. Louis Blues visit the Winnipeg Jets (9:30 p.m., ESPN) in a series that sits at 2-2 following the first four, including major intrigue as leading Vezina Trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck continues to struggle in goal.
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Monday’s games, and the Three Stars of Monday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 5 (WSH leads 3-1) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Historically, teams that have a 3-1 series lead have gone on to win the series 90.8% of the time in Stanley Cup playoff history. The Capitals’ record in that scenario is 8-5, which is 62%.
Cole Caufield is taking many shots. His 21 shots on goal are the second most in the playoffs (trailing Nathan MacKinnon, with 31), and he has had 11 shot attempts blocked, which is tied for second most in the playoffs, behind Jack Eichel.
Rookie defenseman Lane Hutson is the sixth first-year blueliner in playoff history to record at least five assists in his first postseason series, joining Ray Bourque (1980), Janne Niinimaa (1997), Erik Karlsson (2010), Marc-Andre Gragnani (2011) and Quinn Hughes (2020).
Alex Ovechkin has scored the most goals in NHL regular-season history, and he is 13th on the all-time playoff list with 75. His next will tie Mario Lemieux for 12th.
Anthony Beauvillier is the first player in Capitals history to record an assist in each of his first four playoff games with the club, and the fourth with at least one point, following Dave Christian (five GP in 1984), Adam Oates (four GP in 1998) and Mike Knuble (five GP in 2010).
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Game 5 (FLA leads 3-1) | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
In the 2025 playoffs, home teams have a 23-10 record. That script has flipped in the Battle of Florida series as the road team has won three of four games.
The Panthers are 5-0 all time when leading a playoff series 3-1, closing out three of the previous series in Game 5. The Lightning are 1-5 all-time in a best-of-seven series when trailing 1-3.
Lightning forward Jake Guentzel is tied with Brad Marchand for the fourth most playoff goals since 2017 (40), behind Nathan MacKinnon (51), Leon Draisaitl (44) and Brayden Point (44).
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been doing his part: He allowed five goals combined in Games 2-4 (.936 save percentage) after allowing six goals in Game 1 (.647).
Matthew Tkachuk is tied with Nate Schmidt for the Panthers’ goal-scoring lead this series (three), and has 20 in 48 career playoff games with Florida; that is third most in franchise history, behind Sam Reinhart (22 in 59) and Carter Verhaeghe (27 in 65).
With each game and win, Sergei Bobrovsky adds to his lead in each category since the start of the 2023 playoffs (47 games played, 31 wins).
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck has encountered another postseason rough patch. He allowed 11 goals combined in the past two games, and has now allowed four-plus goals in 10 of 14 starts the past three postseasons. That is a 71% rate, and his regular-season rate for that same stat is 17% in the same three-season span.
After starting the series hot — with five points in the first two games, both wins for the Jets — Mark Scheifele has been pointless in the two losses in Games 3 and 4. Kyle Connor has been just slightly better, with four points in the first two and just one goal in the ensuing two.
Although the Jets outshot the Blues 31-23, Jordan Binnington was up to the task in Game 4, stopping all but one. Overall this postseason, Binnington has a .907 save percentage and 2.29 goals-against average. In the Blues’ Stanley Cup run in 2019, he finished with a .914 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average.
In-season trade addition Cam Fowler is playing in his first postseason since 2017, and he’s making up for lost time, leading the Blues with eight points (one goal, seven assists) through four games. Fowler’s career-high postseason point total was 10 in 16 games in the 2015 playoffs.
Arda’s three stars from Tuesday night
Ullmark recorded his first career playoff shutout, becoming the second goalie in Senators franchise history (with Craig Anderson) to secure a shutout in a potential elimination game.
Two goals, including the overtime winner, to cap a three-point night to send the Hurricanes to the second round with a 5-4 win. The Canes scored three goals in four minutes in the second to tie the game after going down 3-0 early. This was Aho’s 10th career postseason power-play goal, which ties Eric Staal for the franchise record.
Tkachuk and Stutzle are the first Senators teammates to have three points when facing elimination in franchise history. They’ll get another chance at it Thursday at home.
Tuesday’s scores
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
TOR leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark faced questions heading into this postseason, as his playoff career performances had not been up to par with his regular-season success. On this night at least, he was stellar. Ullmark stopped all 29 shots the Maple Leafs directed at him, and the Senators got goals from Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens, with empty-netters by Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk capping the evening. Full recap.
0:32
Dylan Cozens doubles lead for Senators in Game 5
Dylan Cozens’ goal in the third period gives the Senators some breathing room in Game 5 vs. the Maple Leafs.
Carolina Hurricanes 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (2OT)
CAR wins 4-1, plays winner of WSH-MTL
It was a wild one Tuesday night in Raleigh, with eight goals between the two teams through two periods. The goalies shut it down for 40 minutes thereafter, with the teams going scoreless in the third period and first overtime. It wasn’t until 4:17 of the second OT when Sebastian Aho scored the game- and series-winning goal. Full recap.
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Sebastian Aho slots in a goal for Hurricanes
Sebastian Aho answers with the Hurricanes’ fourth goal of the second period to tie the game 4-4 vs. the Devils.
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
VGK leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
The teams traded a pair of goals early on the same Minnesota power play — William Karlsson scoring short-handed and Kirill Kaprizov notching the power-play tally — and Mark Stone capped off the first period with a goal at 13:24. The score would remain 2-1 Knights until 3:31 of the third, when Matt Boldy tied things the game at two. The Knights needed just 4:05 of the first OT period to score the game-winner off the stick of Brett Howden. Full recap.
1:09
Brett Howden nets OT winner for Golden Knights to seal Game 5
Brett Howden’s close-range snap shot finds the back of the net to win it in overtime for the Golden Knights and claim a 3-2 series lead vs. the Wild.
Edmonton Oilers 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
EDM leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
After wins in the first two games of the series, the Kings are now looking up at the Oilers — the team that has beaten them the past three postseasons. The Kings were on the board first via an Andrei Kuzmenko power-play goal in the second, but Evander Kane would tie things up less than three minutes later. The eventual game-winner came off the stick of Mattias Janmark 7:12 into the third, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added an empty-net goal to put the game further out of reach. Full recap.
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Mattias Janmark puts the Oilers ahead in the 3rd
Mattias Janmark scores off the rebound to give the Oilers the lead in the third period vs. the Kings.
Will the Presidents’ Trophy curse claim a new victim this year?
For the past 11 NHL seasons, the winner of the trophy — awarded to the team with the most regular-season points — has failed to win the Stanley Cup. In fact, none of the last 11 Presidents’ Trophy winners have even played in the Stanley Cup Final.
All told, of the 38 seasons when the trophy has been awarded, just eight of its victors have also lifted the Stanley Cup. With the Winnipeg Jets‘ series against the St. Louis Blues in the first round of the playoffs knotted at two games apiece, could the curse be looming large again?
Here’s a look at the eight squads the Jets will be hoping to emulate that defied the curse:
Chicago Blackhawks, 2012-13
The most recent team to take home both the Presidents’ Trophy and Stanley Cup, the Blackhawks earned the regular-season crown in a campaign that didn’t start until January due to lockout. Patrick Kane would go on to earn Conn Smythe Trophy honors after a postseason in which he posted nine goals (tied for second on the team) and 10 assists (third on the team).
Detroit Red Wings, 2007-08
Winning the Central Division by an impressive 24-point margin, the Red Wings bolstered the best goals-against record in the league and raced to an impressive 115-point regular season. Henrik Zetterberg, the team’s top goal scorer in the regular season, won the Conn Smythe after a 27-point postseason.
Detroit Red Wings, 2001-02
Not to be outdone by their franchise counterparts six years later, the Red Wings turned in a regular season that not only saw them win the Central Division by 18 points, but top the overall league standings by a 15-point margin as well. The Conn Smythe went to Hall of Fame defenseman Nicklas Lidström, capping off the third of his three Stanley Cup triumphs in Detroit.
Colorado Avalanche, 2000-01
Combined with the Red Wings’ subsequent title, Colorado’s Stanley Cup win marks the only time in league history teams won both the Presidents’ Trophy and Stanley Cup in back-to-back years. Goalkeeper Patrick Roy was awarded his third Conn Smythe — a record that still stands today.
Dallas Stars, 1998-99
Dallas led the league in goals allowed, a trend that continued into the postseason. In just one of the Stars’ 12 postseason wins did the team concede more than two goals. Centers powered the squad’s offense — Mike Modano’s 81 regular-season points led the team by a sizable margin, while Joe Nieuwendyk earned the Conn Smythe.
New York Rangers, 1993-94
After the regular season saw the Rangers beat local rivals the New Jersey Devils to both the Atlantic Division crown and the Presidents’ Trophy, New York’s postseason didn’t lack for rivalry thrills either.
The Rangers met New Jersey in the Eastern Conference finals, coming away victorious in a seven-game series that featured three games decided by double overtime. New York’s subsequent Stanley Cup Final series with the Vancouver Canucks would go seven games as well, with Conn Smythe winner Brian Leetch scoring the opener in the decisive final game.
Calgary Flames, 1988-89
The 1988-89 NHL season was all about Calgary and the Montreal Canadiens, who posted 117- and 115-point regular seasons respectively — no other team in the league amassed more than 92. Fittingly, the two squads met in the Stanley Cup Final, where the President Cup champion Flames bested Montreal again, topping the Canadiens in six games. Defenseman Al MacInnis racked up 24 postseason assists en route to Conn Smythe honors.
Edmonton Oilers, 1986-87
Led by Wayne Gretzky at his peak, Edmonton raced to a 106-point regular season as Gretzky led the NHL in goals, assists and plus/minus as he earned his eighth Hart Trophy. Unsurprisingly, Gretzky was a driving force in the Oilers’ postseason march as well — he totaled 29 assists as Edmonton won its third Stanley Cup in what would end up being a run of four Cups in five years for the franchise.
Following two transfer portal windows and the NFL draft, college football fans might need Apple AirTags to track where their favorite players wound up.
This space is dedicated to those who decided to stay — commitments who boosted their teams’ College Football Playoff hopes. Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class could take up half the list: quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all back from the Nittany Lions’ CFP semifinal run.
“When we all committed here coming out of our ’22 class, that was one of our goals coming in as Penn Staters, we wanted to compete for championships, both Big Ten and obviously national championships,” Allar said. “And obviously we had a taste of that last year, and we know how close you are, so it’s just building off that and trying to make another run at it.”
Here’s a look at 13 players from 11 schools and representing five different leagues whose decisions to either forgo the NFL draft or sidestep the portal have beefed up their respective teams’ playoff chances.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan are entering their second season together and aiming to improve upon a stellar debut, which will help the Tigers contend for the SEC title. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 passing yards last year, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Even if LSU can’t win the league, Nussmeier’s return can help the Tigers earn an at-large CFP bid — especially if he makes a similar jump to his predecessors, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, who both won the Heisman Trophy in their second seasons in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier’s dad, Doug, will be nearby as the Saints’ offensive coordinator after winning a Super Bowl as the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach. With four new starters on the Tigers’ offensive line, there’s going to be an adjustment period, but if the “Nuss Bus” gets the time he needs, this should be a breakout season and his draft stock will rise with LSU’s playoff chances.
2. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Penn State has something Ohio State and Oregon don’t — a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might finally have the pieces in place to return to the top of the Big Ten and contend for a national title. Allar, who’s entering his third season as the starter, will be surrounded by NFL talent on the offensive line and in the running game, and could make a case to be Penn State’s first Heisman Trophy winner since John Cappelletti in 1973. Last season, he had 3,327 passing yards, the third most in a season in school history. With a second season under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and more options at wide receiver — plus a still-loaded tight end room — there will be no shortage of options for Allar to push the ball downfield more.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: On paper, Clemson has enough offensive firepower returning to elevate the Tigers into a deeper CFP run than their first-round exit in 2024 and they should have the Heisman-contending quarterback the program has desperately missed. Klubnik leads a Clemson offense that is No. 1 in the FBS in returning production (81%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Klubnik reestablished himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country following a down season in 2023. Last year, his 308 completions, 3,639 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns all ranked among the best seasons in program history. As he enters his third season as a starter under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s understanding of the offense and his relationship with Riley has grown, positioning Klubnik for what should be his best season with the Tigers.
4. Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen, RBs, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What their return means: The nation’s best running back duo returns intact, and they’ve got playoff experience along with familiarity and knowledge of the offense in coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s second season, all of which should boost the Nittany Lions’ hopes of winning the Big Ten and returning to the CFP. Singleton and Allen were projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. to be the Nos. 5 and 6 running backs available in the 2025 draft after becoming the first combo in Penn State history to each have at least 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Penn State ran for more than 200 yards in 10 games last season, and the Nittany Lions led all Power 4 teams and Notre Dame in rushing with 3,237 yards. Of course, it helps to have 6-foot-4, 350-pound offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane blocking.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: Sellers absolutely drew interest from other teams in November and December, but he re-signed quickly with the Gamecocks — and his commitment could be the difference between receiving or not receiving a CFP bid. The same can be said for edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who also attracted attention after 10.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. South Carolina made a playoff case with Sellers leading the offense last year, but the CFP selection committee didn’t rank the No. 15 Gamecocks high enough for inclusion. He improved throughout the season last fall, increasing his Total QBR from 52 in his first six games to 81 over the last six. This year, he’ll be working with Mike Shula, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal (twice)
What his return means: Illinois can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The importance of Illinois retaining its starting quarterback after a strong spring push from Tennessee can’t be understated. The Illini have a chance to be this year’s Indiana — a Big Ten contender with a manageable schedule that can play its way into the selection committee’s rankings with a standout quarterback and his supporting cast. After public speculation he might transfer for his final year of eligibility, Altmyer announced in December he would return to the team. He did it again in April, following the drama at Tennessee. Altmyer passed for 2,543 yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year, leading Illinois to a 9-3 regular season and a top-20 ranking in the Associated Press poll.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: K-State can win another wide-open Big 12 race and earn an automatic bid into the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Johnson never entered the transfer portal, but he attracted interest, especially after Tennessee lost Nico Iamaleava. “We got a damned wall built around him,” a K-State source told ESPN. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Expectations will be higher this year for Johnson, who threw for 2,712 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first full season as a starter last year. He also had 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the depth at wide receiver, K-State’s passing game could flourish this fall.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: A veteran offensive line that includes four returning starters from a group that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the SEC last season (20). It also means better protection for quarterback DJ Lagway, who could be one of the best in the country if he can stay healthy — and Lagway’s health is the most critical component to Florida’s success this year. According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter allowed one sack, one QB hit, six QB hurries and eight pressures — with only three penalties — in 728 snaps. The Gators again have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and Slaughter is the kind of veteran they need up front to help Lagway survive it.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: That the Buckeyes didn’t lose everyone from their national championship defense. Styles had an outstanding 2024 season with 100 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and five passes defended. His draft stock rose as the Buckeyes ascended through the CFP bracket, but he told reporters at their national championship celebration that he “wasn’t ready to leave yet.” Styles still has room to improve and grow, and his draft stock will continue to rise. He’s now in a position of leadership as one of just three returning starters on defense and the most experienced player among the rising seniors.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: The Ducks retained a 6-foot, 175-pound receiver who played a key role in advancing them to the top seed in the 2024 CFP, and they’ll need his help again — especially with the departure of Tez Johnson, who entered the NFL draft after leading Oregon with 83 receptions for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season. Stewart is Oregon’s only returning receiver who had more than 30 receptions in 2024. Stewart, who transferred to Oregon from Texas A&M, had 48 catches last season for 613 yards and tied for the team high with five receiving touchdowns. He was Oregon’s second-most targeted receiver in an offense that finished 13th nationally in passing yards. Stewart’s role will increase, and his decision to return will help the Ducks’ new starting quarterback, which could be former UCLA QB Dante Moore.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his decision means: The Longhorns have leadership, playoff experience, NFL talent and a familiar face returning to a defense that again has to replace multiple starters from the previous season. Taaffe, a rising senior who ascended from walk-on to All-American, had 71 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. His decision to return was driven in large part by the desire to win a national title at Texas and the devastation he said he felt following the loss to Ohio State. Taaffe will get another chance at the Buckeyes in the season opener.
The decision: Withdrew name from portal
What his return means: The Broncos were able to retain top talent from their 2024 CFP run, which featured one of the nation’s top defensive fronts, a huge boost for coach Spencer Danielson as he tries to own the Group of 5’s guaranteed spot as one of the nation’s five highest-ranked conference champions. Fely took visits to Miami and Cal before announcing on social media he planned to return to Boise. Fely, who spent the past three seasons at Boise State, started 28 games in the past two seasons. He had nine TFLs last year and 5.5 sacks.
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