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Ireland’s Green Party, one of the three previous governing parties, may lose a significant number of seats – as attention turns to forming a new coalition after polling day on Friday.

Counting is still in the early stages, with the first seats filled in the late afternoon. The final result may not be clear for days.

But that hasn’t stopped the leaders of Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail speculating about the formulation of the next government.

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What to look out for in the Irish election

Mary Lou McDonald told Sky News that “no party has an absolutely straightforward path to government”.

The Sinn Fein leader said: “This is going to be complicated, this is going to require dialogue and collaboration.”

She said she would hold discussions with other left-wing parties “who are committed to the politics of change and a change of government”.

Ms McDonald, who was elected on the third count, added that Sinn Fein has “changed the political landscape here in Ireland, because it’s not so long ago that only two parties absolutely dominated government and opposition”.

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Those two parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, look likely to form another coalition but may fall short of the 88-seat majority needed to govern in the Irish parliament.

The centre-right parties have vowed not to form a government with Sinn Fein, citing substantial differences on policy.

Explainer: What to watch out for in Ireland’s election

A coalition is inevitable as no party put forward enough candidates to reach a majority in parliament.

Fianna Fail’s leader Micheal Martin, who was elected on the first count, said: “It’s very, very early days, but we do see a route to a very strong finish here in this election.”

Fine Gael’s Simon Harris said that “we don’t know what’s going to happen on government formation” but that it was likely his party would not be in opposition.

Meanwhile, several high-profile ministers look like they may be in difficulty with Green leader Roderic O’Gorman in with a fight to hold on to his seat. He admitted earlier this morning that his party has “not had a good day”.

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Meet Ireland’s first-time voters

In 2011, the last time the Greens exited a coalition government, the party lost all six of its TDs (MPs).

The Fianna Fail health minister Stephen Donnelly and the Green media minister Catherine Martin also look to be in trouble.

But alleged crime boss Gerard Hutch appears to be in contention for the fourth seat in Dublin Central – the same constituency as Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald.

Read more: How Trump looms over Ireland’s election

An Irish criminal court judge described Mr Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal figurehead of the Hutch criminal organisation and said he had engaged in “serious criminal conduct”.

However, Mr Hutch has denied the allegations against him and was found not guilty of the murder of David Byrne, who died after being shot six times at a crowded boxing weigh-in event at a hotel in 2016.

It was one of the first deadly attacks of the Hutch-Kinahan gangland feud.

He is currently on bail on alleged money laundering charges in Lanzarote.

Meanwhile, Labour and the Social Democrats look set to increase their share of votes in this election.

Holly Cairns, the leader of the Social Democrats who was elected to her county council by one vote in 2019, was unable to vote this time around as she gave birth to a baby girl on polling day.

Counting started across the country at 9am this morning.

Voters in Ireland rank their choices rather than choosing one candidate. Prospective politicians must then reach a quota after rounds of vote counting, which often takes several days. There are between three and five seats up for grabs in each constituency.

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Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities

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Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities

There is much that is still not known about the US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Reports are coming in about which sites were hit and what military elements were involved, as President Donald Trump hails the attack on social media.

Here’s what we know so far.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

Which sites were hit?

America appears to have hit the three key locations in Iran’s nuclear programme.

They include Isfahan, the location of a significant research base, as well as uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

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Natanz was believed to have been previously damaged in Israeli strikes after bombs disrupted power to the centrifuge hall, possibly destroying the machines indirectly.

However the facility at Fordow, which is buried around 80 metres below a mountain, had previously escaped major damage.

Details about the damage in the US strikes is not yet known, although Mr Trump said the three sites had been “obliterated”.

Read more:
Fordow: What we know about Iran’s secretive ‘nuclear mountain’

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Sky’s Mark Stone explains how Iran might respond to the US strike on Tehran’s nuclear sites.

What weapons were used in the attacks?

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately elaborate on the operation, but a US official said B-2 heavy bombers were involved.

Fox News host Sean Hannity said he had spoken with the president and that six bunker buster bombs were used on the Fordow facility.

Bunker buster bombs are designed to explode twice. Once to breach the ground surface and again once the bomb has burrowed down to a certain depth.

A GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. in 2023. File pic: US Air Force via AP
Image:
A file picture of a GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, which was possibly used in the attack on Fordow. Pic: AP

Israel has some in its arsenal but does not have the much more powerful GBU-57, which can only be launched from the B-2 bomber and was believed to be the only bomb capable of breaching Fordow.

Hannity said 30 Tomahawk missiles fired by US submarines 400 miles away struck the Iranian nuclear sites of Natanz and Isfahan.

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‘Fordow is gone’: US warplanes strike three nuclear sites in Iran

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'Fordow is gone': US warplanes strike three nuclear sites in Iran

The US has carried out a “very successful attack” on three nuclear sites on Iran, President Donald Trump has said.

The strikes, which the US leader announced on social media, reportedly include a hit on the heavily-protected Fordow enrichment plant which is buried deep under a mountain.

The other sites hit were at Natanz and Isfahan. It brings the US into direct involvement in the war between Israel and Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the “bold decision” by Mr Trump, saying it would “change history”.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it is seeking a nuclear weapon and the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said in June that it has no proof of a “systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon”.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’

Addressing the nation in the hours after the strikes, Mr Trump said that Iran must now make peace or “we will
go after” other targets in Iran.

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Commenting on the operation, he said that the three Iranian sites had been “obliterated”.

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight
days,” he said.

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Benjamin Netanyahu said Donald Trump and the US have acted with strength following strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In a posting on Truth Social earlier, Mr Trump said, “All planes are safely on their way home” and he congratulated “our great American Warriors”. He added: “Fordow is gone.”

He also threatened further strikes on Iran unless it doesn’t “stop immediately”, adding: “Now is the time for peace.”

It is not yet clear if the UK was directly involved in the attack.

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‘Iranians have to repond’

Read more:
Analysis: If Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos
Fordow: What we know about Iran’s secretive ‘nuclear mountain’

Among the sites hit was Fordow, a secretive nuclear facility buried around 80 metres below a mountain and one of two key uranium enrichment plants in Iran.

“A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow,” Mr Trump said. “Fordow is gone.”

There had been a lot of discussion in recent days about possible American involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, and much centred around the US possibly being best placed to destroy Fordow.

Meanwhile, Natanz and Isfahan were the other two sites hit in the US attack.

Natanz is the other major uranium enrichment plant in Iran and was believed to have possibly already suffered extensive damage in Israel’s strikes earlier this week.

Isfahan features a large nuclear technology centre and enriched uranium is also stored there, diplomats say.

Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant
Image:
Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant

US media reported that six ‘bunker buster’ bombs were used to strike Fordow.

Mr Trump said no further strikes were planned and that he hoped diplomacy would now take over.

It’s not yet known what Iran’s response will be – particularly as the government was already struggling to repel Israel.

However a commentator on Iranian state TV said every US citizen or military in the region was now a legitimate target.

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Like George W Bush did in Iraq, if Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos that could ensue

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Like George W Bush did in Iraq, if Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos that could ensue

Israelis are good at tactics, poor at strategic vision, it has been observed.

Their campaign against Iran may be a case in point.

Short termism is understandable in a region that is so unpredictable. Why make elaborate plans if they are generally undone by unexpected events? It is a mindset that is familiar to anyone who has lived or worked there.

And it informs policy-making. The Israeli offensive in Gaza is no exception. The Israeli government has never been clear how it will end or what happens the day after that in what remains of the coastal strip. Pressed privately, even senior advisers will admit they simply do not know.

It may seem unfair to call a military operation against Iran that literally took decades of planning short-termist or purely tactical. There was clearly a strategy of astonishing sophistication behind a devastating campaign that has dismantled so much of the enemy’s capability.

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How close is Iran to producing a nuclear weapon?

But is there a strategic vision beyond that? That is what worries Israel’s allies.

It’s not as if we’ve not been here before, time and time again. From Libya to Afghanistan and all points in between we have seen the chaos and carnage that follows governments being changed.

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Hundreds of thousands have died. Vast swathes of territory remain mired in turmoil or instability.

Which is where a famous warning sign to American shoppers in the 80s and 90s comes in.

Ahead of the disastrous invasion that would tear Iraq apart, America’s defence secretary, Colin Powell, is said to have warned US president George W Bush of the “Pottery Barn rule”.

The Pottery Barn was an American furnishings store. Signs among its wares told clumsy customers: “You break it, you own it.”

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Iran and Israel exchange attacks

Bush did not listen to Powell hard enough. His administration would end up breaking Iraq and owning the aftermath in a bloody debacle lasting years.

Israel is not invading Iran, but it is bombing it back to the 80s, or even the 70s, because it is calling for the fall of the government that came to power at the end of that decade.

Iran’s leadership is proving resilient so far but we are just a week in. It is a country of 90 million, already riven with social and political discontent. Its system of government is based on factional competition, in which paranoia, suspicion and intense rivalries are the order of the day.

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After half a century of authoritarian theocratic rule there are no opposition groups ready to replace the ayatollahs. There may be a powerful sense of social cohesion and a patriotic resentment of outside interference, for plenty of good historic reasons.

But if that is not enough to keep the country together then chaos could ensue. One of the biggest and most consequential nations in the region could descend into violent instability.

That will have been on Israel’s watch. If it breaks Iran it will own it even more than America owned the disaster in Iraq.

Iran and Israel are, after all, in the same neighbourhood.

Has Israel thought through the consequences? What is the strategic vision beyond victory?

And if America joins in, as Donald Trump is threatening, is it prepared to share that legacy?

At the very least, is his administration asking its allies whether they have a plan for what could come next?

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