CFP Anger Index: Why Ole Miss and Miami should both be furious over Bama’s ranking
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
At least in theory, 92% of the committee’s job should already be done.
It appears to be a given that Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Notre Dame and (probably) SMU and Indiana are in.
The winners of the Big 12 and Mountain West championship games are also in.
So, unless Clemson wins the ACC and closes out the field, that leaves one spot remaining with a host of teams offering compelling cases for inclusion.
But let’s start with something that should be obvious: The 12th team to make the field will be flawed. This isn’t a new phenomenon based on weak schedules or shocking losses. The No. 12 team in the ranking every year has its share of warts. That’s why it’s No. 12. We’re just used to arguing over a top four, not No. 12, so wrapping our heads around a playoff team with a loss to — oh, let’s say Vanderbilt — seems entirely wrong. When it comes to picking 12 teams, there will always be reasons to argue someone doesn’t belong or has done something so inexcusably awful they should be excluded without further debate.
But, of course, if that were true, Notre Dame would already be packing its bags for the Music City Bowl.
Instead, we should be viewing the process of picking the No. 12 team through an optimist’s lens. What have these teams done to earn their way in? Why should we believe they’re capable of — well, maybe not winning it all, but at least putting on a good show in the opening round? What’s the sales pitch for inclusion?
And when we view the decision through that lens, there are at least three reasonable, logical paths to follow.
But this is about a meeting of the College Football Playoff selection committee, where hotel security at the Gaylord Texan Hotel has explicit orders to keep reason and logic from stepping foot on the premises, and so, of course, the one team that isn’t left standing at the end of those logical pathways is exactly the team it has tabbed as the leader in the clubhouse: Alabama.
And that, friends, means a lot of programs have ample reason to be angry.
So, let’s walk down those logical pathways as a means of underscoring just how ridiculous the committee’s take on these rankings looks, bringing us to this week’s Anger Index.
There’s an Occam’s razor aspect to this conundrum that the committee should’ve considered: The simplest, most elegant solution is usually the right one.
This was the committee’s solution back in the first year of the playoff. In 2014, the committee was left to decide between 11-1 TCU and 11-1 Baylor. In the regular season, Baylor had beaten TCU head to head by 3 points, but the Bears also had a rather ugly 41-27 loss to West Virginia. The Big 12, at that time, didn’t have a conference championship game, leaving it to the committee to parse out who was more deserving of the No. 4 spot in the playoff.
The committee’s answer? Ohio State!
Baylor won its regular-season finale over No. 9 Kansas State by 11. TCU won its finale against Iowa State by 55-3. And yet the committee moved up 11-1 Ohio State to No. 4, bypassing both Big 12 schools. It was beautiful in its simplicity. Why make an impossible choice between Door No. 1 and Door No. 2 when Door No. 3 is already wide open?
This isn’t necessarily Miami’s best case for the final playoff slot, of course, but the fact that the Hurricanes are 10-2 and those SEC schools vying for the space are all 9-3 is the perfect opportunity for the committee to simply say, “This team has more wins,” the same way it said “Ohio State has a conference championship” as a completely reasonable justification for avoiding a tough call.
And it’s not as if Miami would be a bad choice. The Canes demolished Florida, a team that beat Ole Miss. The Canes demolished USF, a team that took Alabama into the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa. The Canes have two road losses by a combined nine points against two pretty good teams — No. 22 Syracuse and a 7-5 Georgia Tech team that just took Georgia to eight overtimes (and probably should’ve won if the officials had been watching the game). QB Cam Ward is extraordinary, the offense is fun, the Canes can play with pretty much anyone, and none of their losses are bad. Isn’t that effectively South Carolina’s pitch?
So, yeah, giving the 12th playoff spot to Miami would’ve been an easy win for the committee. Instead, it chose pain.
Indeed, it docked Miami more spots for a road loss to the No. 22 team in the country than it did for Ohio State losing to 7-5 Michigan.
If the committee didn’t want to prioritize the simplest solution by going with the team with the best record, then certainly you’d think the argument came down to this: Not all wins are equal, and therefore we should choose the team that had proven the most on the field.
Well, folks, the answer to that question is absolutely Ole Miss.
Ole Miss and Alabama both beat South Carolina head to head, but the Rebels dominated their game, while the Tide snuck by with a two-point win.
Ole Miss and Alabama have the same best win, against No. 5 Georgia. But Alabama came within minutes of one of the most epic collapses in college football history, narrowly escaping with a seven-point win. Ole Miss, on the other hand, beat Georgia by 18 in a game that was never particularly close. In fact, do you know the last team to beat Georgia by more points than Ole Miss did this year? That would be the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the best college football team ever assembled.
Ole Miss is ranked higher in SP+, too. The Rebels are an analytics dream team, with one of the top offenses and defenses in the country statistically. SP+ has the Rebels at No. 3 — ahead of Texas! — while Alabama checks in at No. 5, Miami at No. 10 and South Carolina at No. 13.
OK, but what about strength of schedule? Doesn’t that favor Alabama? It does, but that metric isn’t exactly what it seems. According to ESPN, the Tide played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country, while Ole Miss played the 31st. That seems like a big difference, right? But when we look at the hard numbers rather than the ranking, the difference is only about 1% (Bama at 98.97 and Ole Miss at 97.66). That’s basically the difference between Alabama playing Western Kentucky and Ole Miss playing MTSU. Oh, and if strength of schedule really matters that much, South Carolina ranks ahead of both of them.
And let’s talk about that schedule, because it wasn’t the “strength” that proved to be Alabama’s undoing. The Tide lost to a pair of 6-6 teams. It was the mediocrity on their slate that killed them.
OK, yes, Ole Miss lost to a couple pretty average teams, too — 7-5 Florida and 4-8 Kentucky. But again, if the records were all that mattered to the committee, Miami would be in the playoff. So let’s compare SP+ rankings for those losses.
Alabama lost to SP+ Nos. 8, 31 and 58 for an average of 32.3.
Ole Miss lost to SP+ Nos. 17, 22 and 48 for an average of 29.0.
So, on average, the Rebels’ losses weren’t as bad as Alabama’s. Their wins were markedly better than Alabama’s. Their underlying stats are better than Alabama’s. Their schedule strength was effectively equal to Alabama’s.
So explain to us again why Ole Miss isn’t in the No. 11 slot, because we’re at a complete loss to understand it.
To be sure, there is not a logical argument in South Carolina’s favor. The Gamecocks have the same record as Alabama and Ole Miss and lost to both of them head to head. That, on its face, should eliminate South Carolina.
But, perhaps there’s a more emotional take here; an “eye test,” if you will.
Watch South Carolina over the past six games — all wins, including against Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson (not to mention a dominant performance against an Oklahoma team that whipped Alabama) — and it’s pretty easy to suggest the Gamecocks are playing as well as any team in the country.
Now, back in the four-team playoff era, this wouldn’t have mattered at all. Go back and look at 2015 Stanford with Christian McCaffrey, which lost its opener to Northwestern before going on a roll and winning 11 of its next 12, or 2016 USC that started 1-3 and reeled off eight straight wins with a new QB. Those teams could’ve genuinely won it all if they had been given a ticket to the dance, but in those days, there was no room for the hottest team. Just the most deserving.
But no one truly deserving is left out if we include South Carolina now. Miami and Alabama and Ole Miss (and others) all have their arguments in favor of inclusion, but as we noted at the top, all have enough warts to miss out, too.
So why not take the team playing the best? How many times in the NFL playoffs have we seen a team that finished strong go on a run and win the Super Bowl? Are they any less a champion, because they lost a couple games in September?
South Carolina’s inclusion would be a boon for all the teams that grow as the season progresses, get better through coaching, hard work and perseverance, that overcome adversity and rise to meet the moment. In short, South Carolina is a feel-good story in a sport that should embrace that type of team.
Instead, the committee is embracing Darth Vader because the Empire holds a lot of sway over the galaxy.
Here’s a fun blind comparison.
Team A: 10-2, No. 12 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 39 and 51 with best win against SP+ No. 12
Team B: 10-2, No. 14 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 50 and 59 with best win against SP+ No. 18
Neither of these teams will play in their conference championship games.
If you had to pick one for the playoff, which would you take?
Well, the records are the same, but Team A seems to have the edge everywhere else, right?
OK, Team A is BYU.
Team B? That’s Miami.
We’re not arguing against Miami, but Miami checks in as the first team out. BYU checks in behind three-loss Clemson!
Perhaps the Cougars’ losses (to Arizona State and Kansas) are reason enough for exclusion (though by that logic, we should be waving goodbye to Alabama and Ole Miss, too), but the fact that BYU isn’t even in the conversation is ridiculous.
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Booger: Committee on ‘slippery slope’ choosing Alabama over Miami
Booger McFarland and Joey Galloway discuss whether the CFP selection committee is making the right decision favoring Alabama over Miami.
We’ve laid out perfectly reasonable arguments for Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina and BYU.
What’s the argument for Alabama?
Strength of schedule? South Carolina’s is better.
A big win vs. Georgia? Ole Miss beat the Dawgs by more.
Strength of record? That’s just a function of strength of schedule, and frankly any record that includes losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — including one blowout — isn’t very “strong.”
Teams that did not lose by more than a TD this year:
Oregon, 12-0
Notre Dame, 11-1
Penn St, 11-1
Boise St, 11-1
SMU, 11-1
Miami, 10-2
BYU, 10-2
ULL, 10-2
Ohio St, 10-2
UNLV, 10-2
Ole Miss, 9-3
Louisville, 8-4
(Side note: Southern Miss went 0-11 vs FBS with all 11 losses by more…— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) December 3, 2024
Better stats? Ole Miss is rated higher in SP+, Miami’s offense is far more compelling, and South Carolina’s defense is, too.
So what exactly is the case for Alabama?
Committee chair Warde Manuel’s best attempt at an explanation: Alabama is 3-1 vs. the current top 25. That, of course, ignores that Miami has wins vs. the Nos. 1 and 3 teams in the AP’s others receiving votes list, and ranking 25 teams is an entirely arbitrary cutoff. And more importantly, it ignores that Alabama is also 6-2 vs. teams not in the current top 25.
No, the real case for Alabama is the same one the committee made last year, that it believes — in spite of any hard evidence — that Alabama is just better. It believes Alabama would win a future hypothetical matchup. It is prioritizing a gut feeling.
We can criticize the committee for a lot of things, but most of it is hair-splitting, and the folks on the committee have a particularly tough job. We’re sympathetic. But when this group continually — year after year (yes, we’re talking to you, Florida State) — ignores what happens in the actual games on the actual field of play in favor of its own projections, that threatens to undermine the entire sport, and that’s a shame.
Is Alabama a good football team? Sure. If the Tide get in, could they win a game or two or the whole darn thing? Absolutely. But if that’s the criteria, then there was no need for Alabama’s players to suit up 12 times this year and go to battle, and that’s an insult to them — even if it means handing them a gift in the process.
We’ve argued a bunch over the No. 12 team, but there’s another debate rolling in the college football world, and that involves conference championships.
The debate has largely centered on SMU and whether the Mustangs, if they lose the ACC title to Clemson, should be reevaluated if they’re 11-2 (particularly if Clemson is stealing a playoff bid).
It’s a reasonable discussion. On one hand, there is precedent. Just two years ago, USC entered conference championship week ranked No. 4, only to lose in a blowout to Utah. The committee dropped the Trojans to No. 10 and rewarded Ohio State — a team that was sitting at home and watching championship weekend — with a playoff berth. At the time, virtually no one even mentioned this. It made logical sense.
But in the 12-team era, when there should ostensibly be a larger margin for error, it seems entirely wrong to suggest a team that won the right to play an extra game should then have that extra data point held against it to the point that it falls out of the playoff field. (And, oh, how ironic would it be if Lane Kiffin complained about this very possibility, suggesting it was better to miss the SEC title game, only to have Kiffin’s team get in as a result of missing the SEC championship and SMU losing the ACC championship.)
But the big point being missed here is that the discussion shouldn’t stop with SMU. What about Boise State?
The Broncos are currently one of the four teams set to get first-round byes because of an 11-1 record, a head-to-head win over UNLV and a largely dominant season. But if they lose a rematch to UNLV — a team it has already beaten once — then the Broncos would be out of the playoff entirely.
Is that fair?
Well, here’s another comparison.
Team A: 11-1, No. 13 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 3, four wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and one win vs. a currently ranked foe.
Team B: 11-1, No. 8 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 23, three wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and no wins vs. currently ranked foes.
It should be noted here that the schedule strength difference between the two is about an 8% margin — notable, but not significant.
Who would you say was more deserving of a playoff bid?
Team A, as you might’ve guessed, is Boise State.
Team B is ranked one spot ahead of the Broncos. It’s Indiana, a team that won’t play another game and is considered safely in.
So, why exactly is Boise State not also safely in right now?
It’s a question the committee should be asking.
Also angry this week: Duke Blue Devils (9-3, unranked), Missouri Tigers (9-3, No. 19), Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3, No. 21), Georgia Bulldogs (who were docked far worse for losses against Ole Miss and Alabama than Ohio State was for losing to 7-5 Michigan), Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, No. 7 and should have the first-round home game being handed to Ohio State) and Ryan Day, because life is really unfair sometimes.
On Monday, the next installment of the Battle of Florida will be contested between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, a rivalry that has certainly intensified in recent years.
The two teams entered the league one year apart. The Bolts in 1992 and the Cats a year later.
Although the Panthers miraculously made it to the Stanley Cup Final in their third season, the state of Florida wasn’t truly on the hockey map until the Lightning won the title in 2004.
But for most of the two teams’ existence, the rivalry was purely geographical, with the hockey world largely focusing on other feuds or thriving franchises. Despite achieving far less success in the 23 years after they made the Cup Final in 1996, the Panthers won the lion’s share of games against the Lightning. In that same 23-year span, the Cats had a sub-.500 record against the Lightning in only seven seasons, and the club’s all-time record against their in-state rival is 79-54-29.
But this truly became the “Battle” when both teams became great, and that has been in the past six seasons. The pair met in the playoffs for the first time in 2021, which is the perfect start of this era — Tampa Bay was coming off a Stanley Cup win in 2020 (in the bubble) and dispatched Florida in six games en route to their second straight Cup. The Lightning would sweep the Panthers the next season before bowing out to Colorado in the Cup Final, marking three straight trips to the Final.
Then it was Florida’s turn to do the exact same thing, making their three straight trips to the Cup Final (with the streak still active), and beating Tampa Bay 4-1 in back-to-back first rounds in 2024 and 2025 en route to Cup wins. Their playoff records against each other are identical: two series wins, 10-10 overall.
And this feud has turned ugly, bloody and downright nasty. Two preseason games (!) this October saw Lightning and Panthers players maul each other on the ice to the tune of a combined 508 penalty minutes and 26 misconducts. “It just got silly, got stupid,” lamented Panthers forward Evan Rodrigues, describing the chaos that some hockey fans absolutely relish. There were so many ejections that Florida’s Niko Mikkola got ejected, didn’t leave and then assisted on a goal, that had to be called back upon review.
It took a while to get there, but the Battle of Florida is now one of the most bitter rivalries in hockey and has no signs of slowing down. Both teams have thrown haymakers (literally and figuratively) at the other throughout the years. Although this might hurt many traditionalists to hear, the rivalry is an offshoot of both team’s playoff and championship success and that means — if you’re judging this purely on glory at the highest levels — Florida is cemented as the current “State of Hockey.” I don’t make the rules, people, I just bring them to light.
The Panthers and Lightning drop the puck on Monday in Tampa Bay. It’s without a doubt one of the biggest games of the week.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps
Biggest games of the week
I have my eyes firmly on every game the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers play this week. Purely because I want to see the immediate impact the traded players will be making. And there’s some overlap!
The Quinn Hughes trade was a Friday night shocker. Minnesota! What a coup!
The Wild play the Washington Capitals on Tuesday (one of the teams rumored to be in on the Hughes trade talks), followed by the the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday, and the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday (a big test). Before the Avs, they’ll host the Oilers on Saturday … when I hope Tristan Jarry will be starting, and we get some sort of Hughes scoring chance on the new Oilers goalie.
Aside from the showdown in Minnesota, the Oilers have the Boston Bruins on Thursday and Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday (a big offensive test).
Jarry won his first game with the Oilers on Saturday, a 6-3 victory in Toronto.
The Penguins, with Stuart Skinner and Brett Kulak now in the mix, face the Ottawa Senators on Thursday, then have a home-and-home series against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday and Sunday.
But I have a big red circle around Tuesday on my calendar, because the Oilers face the Penguins. Hockey trade bingo! It’s always awesome when traded players face their old teams right away. It’s like getting early and tangible “who won the trade?” argument fodder based on how the traded players perform. Let’s hope the coaches help out the narrative and start both Jarry and Skinner in this one.
Other key games this week
MONDAY
8 p.m. ET | ESPN+
TUESDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
WEDNESDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
THURSDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
FRIDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
10 p.m. ET | ESPN+
SATURDAY
12:30 p.m. ET | NHL Network
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
SUNDAY
1 p.m. ET | NHL Network
What I loved this weekend
The San Jose Sharks are a lot of people’s second favorite team, and they made a whole bunch of fans happy — outside of Pittsburgh, of course — on Saturday. Down 5-1 with 12 minutes to play in the game, the Sharks scored four unanswered goals in the third period, then won the game in overtime. And no, this was not Stuart Skinner‘s debut — his immigration paperwork was held up, so it was Arturs Silovs in goal for the Penguins.
1:51
Sharks score 5 unanswered to rally for OT win vs. Penguins
The Sharks put five unanswered goals past the Penguins over the third period and overtime in a huge comeback win.
This marks only the 26th time in NHL history a team was down four goals in the third period and won the game.
This is where I tell Maple Leafs fans to look away. Because the ESPN Research team dug even deeper, and found that there were only two instances of teams that came back from five-goal deficits in the third period and won the game.
The two teams that pulled off this feat were the Calgary Flames in 1986-87 and the St. Louis Blues in 2000-01.
Their opponents on both occasions? Yes, the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today
Nathan MacKinnon obviously gets a spot. He still leads the league in points and in goals, and has points in five straight games, with nine points total in that span.
Connor McDavid is second in scoring, back to his “I’ll score at will” video game mode, and is also on a five-game point streak, where he has a silly 15 points. Casual Connor, no big deal.
0:49
Connor McDavid lights the lamp for Oilers
Connor McDavid lights the lamp for Oilers
Finally, enough is enough; I’m putting Logan Thompson on my Hart Trophy list! I’m all for goalie Hart pushes. Deal with it.
The Caps are third in the Metro Division, and Thompson has an excellent .922 save percentage through 23 games. Scott Wedgewood will likely rotate into this spot on occasion given how much of an absolute wagon the Avs are this season. Aside from his last game where he let in five goals, Wedgewood has had a terrific stretch, including a shutout.
Social media post of the week
I said this last week, and I’m serious — the 6-7 trend is getting out of control! Now it’s on the back of warmup jerseys. STOP IT NOW!
On to my actual favorite social media from this week. As my fellow pro wrestling heads out there know, John Cena’s final WWE match took place on Saturday (and Cena’s submission to Gunther ignited a reaction from the WWE crowd more heinous than a lengthy offside review). A part of the homage this week was reflecting on the jerseys Cena wore over the years, including a few hockey ones. The Oilers, Kings, Jets and Canadiens were among the pro teams to share posts with Cena wearing their threads:
The funniest one was the Habs, because Cena mimics shooting a puck in his entrance. Which confirms in WWE retirement he will be signing with Montreal, adding bottom-six depth for a playoff push.
Stick taps
I’m going to give my ESPN colleague (and, of course, Stanley Cup champion) T.J. Oshie a lot of credit. He had a “welcome to TV” moment where, because he’s a retired NHL player-turned-citizen of hockey by being on national broadcasts, he received a Stadium Series jersey like the rest of us:
We revealed the #StadiumSeries jerseys! @espnSteveLevy @TJOshie77 @espn @NHL @NHLBruins @TBLightning https://t.co/3nlxP4pgFf pic.twitter.com/sCy6CJ0H5W
— ᴀʀᴅᴀ Öᴄᴀʟ (@Arda) December 12, 2025
The problem is, Oshie never played for the Lightning or the Bruins. But we egged him on and like the true good sport that he is, he put on the Boston jersey, explaining that it resembled his old Warroad team colors.
“I did put it on, somewhat against my will.” 😅@TJOshie77 and @Arda broke down the fine details on the Boston Bruins’ 2026 NHL Stadium Series jerseys 🐻 pic.twitter.com/XuCg9lTzCl
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 12, 2025
What a sight. I’m sure it was equally jarring to see “Oshie” on the back of the Boston jersey, and perhaps more jarring to see No. 77, Oshie’s number in the NHL that also happened to be Ray Bourque’s number — which the Bruins retired in 2001.
I will jump in here and say that I believe that the retired number rule applies only for active players on that team. Celebrities, analysts, media types, or really anyone that wants to customize a jersey … pick whatever number you want. You’re not suiting up for the team with that number. It’s fine. We can let that one go.
If you want to nominate someone for stick taps in a future column, reach out to me on social media.
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Bill Connelly
The new era of college football features a larger College Football Playoff and a lower bar (and more forgiveness) for inclusion. Meanwhile, the transfer portal and increased freedom of movement for players have meant that today’s best teams can’t quite stockpile awesome backups as easily as they could in the past.
The idea of greatness has, therefore, also changed a bit. As we saw with Ohio State’s incredible national title run in 2024, it’s more about when you peak and less about how high and how long that peak might be.
It might be more difficult, then, for a team to rise to the top of this list, in other words.
It is once again time for me to rank every College Football Playoff team to date. Is it an awkward mix of 40 teams that cleared one bar during the four-team playoff era and 24 teams that cleared a lower bar in the new 12-team era? Absolutely. Is that stopping me from continuing this tradition? Absolutely not. As always, this list is derived through a combination of numbers and my own personal opinions. I start out using my SP+ ratings as a guide, then steer whichever way I want to steer with it. The rankings for 2025’s playoff participants will obviously shift in the future, once we’ve seen how this year’s four-round tournament plays out.
Jump to:
Top 10 CFP teams
64. 2025 Tulane (11-2)
CFP matchup: First round at Ole Miss
Jon Sumrall’s final Tulane team is adaptable and resilient and certainly clears a physicality bar that not every awesome Group of 5 team might. But the Green Wave’s two losses — 45-10 against first-round opponent Ole Miss, 48-26 at UTSA — were a sign that when things go awry, the ceiling is much, much lower than what we might expect from a playoff team.
63. 2024 Clemson (10-4)
CFP result: Lost to Texas 38-24 in the first round
The first official bid thieves of the 12-team era, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers looked like their hopes were finished after an end-of-regular-season loss to South Carolina. But upsets elsewhere placed them in the ACC championship game, and they won the league with a last-second field goal. That gave them a shot at Texas in the CFP first round, and although they played well while behind, the game was never truly in doubt.
62. 2024 SMU (11-3)
CFP result: Lost to Penn State 38-10 in the first round
Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs made the absolute most of their first power conference campaign in three decades, going 8-0 in the regular season and falling just six points short of a 13-0 start. But they didn’t beat any teams that finished in the SP+ top 20, and they were utterly overwhelmed in the first round in State College, throwing two pick-sixes, suffering countless other miscues and trailing big most of the way.
61. 2024 Boise State (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Penn State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal
Behind Ashton Jeanty and his 2,601 rushing yards (not to mention a fierce pass rush), Boise State nearly took down Oregon in Week 2 and headed into the CFP having won 11 straight games. The Broncos couldn’t overcome a slow start in the Fiesta Bowl, however, trailing PSU 14-0 after about 11 minutes, clawing to within three points in the third quarter and eventually falling because of turnovers and red zone failures.
60. 2025 James Madison (12-1)
CFP matchup: First round at Oregon
Bob Chesney’s final JMU team faced only one power conference opponent and suffered offensive ups and downs early on, but the Dukes have risen to 24th in SP+ because of a dynamite homestretch. They’ve outscored their past seven opponents by an average of 28 points with aggressive defense and increasingly explosive offense. Do they have the upside to scare Oregon? Probably not, but they earned their spot.
59. 2015 Michigan State (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 38-0
Mark Dantonio’s 2015 Spartans are proof that no matter what the committee said, it was picking the four “most deserving” teams rather than the four “best” — MSU was definitively the former and in no way the latter. And that’s fine! The Spartans finished 18th in FPI and 15th in SP+ but beat a dynamite Ohio State team and outlasted unbeaten Iowa to win the Big Ten. Then they did exactly what was expected of them against Alabama in the Cotton Bowl: They lost big.
58. 2025 Alabama (10-3)
CFP matchup: First round at Oklahoma
Alabama basically earned its playoff spot in October, beating Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee to craft a dynamite résumé. But due primarily to increasing numbers of offensive mistakes, the Tide’s form slipped dramatically. The committee did them a massive favor by completely ignoring poor late performances against Auburn (narrow win) and Georgia (blowout loss). Will Alabama reward the committee for its faith?
57. 2025 Oklahoma (10-2)
CFP matchup: First round vs. Alabama
The Sooners’ defense is playoff worthy by any definition, and the offense has mastered the art of opportunism — it doesn’t create nearly enough chances, but makes the most of what it creates. Tight November wins over Tennessee and Alabama drove some late résumé boosting, and a clutch, season-ending win over LSU kept Oklahoma in the field. But that offense sure looks like a fatal flaw.
56. 2019 Oklahoma (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to LSU 63-28
After three years at No. 1, Lincoln Riley’s 2019 Sooners slipped to third in offensive SP+, and the defense wasn’t good enough to make up for this smidgen of offensive mortality. They rolled to 7-0 but stumbled against Kansas State and had to survive four tight wins in their final five games. That was enough to earn the Sooners their fourth CFP appearance in five years, but they got destroyed in the Peach Bowl.
55. 2020 Notre Dame (10-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 31-14
Brian Kelly’s Irish beat Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson in overtime, and behind consensus All-America offensive linemen Aaron Banks and Liam Eichenberg, they proved physical, mature and adaptable while starting the season 10-0. But in their final two games, against a full-strength Clemson team in the ACC championship game and Alabama in the Rose Bowl, the Irish were outscored 65-24.
54. 2024 Indiana (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Notre Dame 27-17 in the first round
Curt Cignetti’s first Hoosiers team benefited from a pretty easy Big Ten schedule but won seven games by at least 24 points and finished the regular season second in the country in points per drive and sixth in points allowed per drive. Unfortunately, quarterback Kurtis Rourke‘s season-long ACL injury finally caught up to him with a poor CFP performance, and the Hoosiers couldn’t overcome a slow start in South Bend.
53. 2025 Miami (10-2)
CFP matchup: First round at Texas A&M
The Hurricanes started and finished the season looking the part and overcame a midseason funk that included timid, turnover-plagued losses to Louisville and SMU. A smart, aggressive defense gives them the upside to compete with anyone, and the offense enjoys long runs of efficiency thanks to quarterback Carson Beck and receiver Malachi Toney. Do they have the close-game chops required to make a run? We’ll see.
52. 2024 Arizona State (11-3)
CFP result: Lost to Texas 39-31 in the Peach Bowl quarterfinal
It’s tricky figuring out where to place a team that didn’t look the part until November, then very much looked the part. As late as Week 12 in 2024, ASU’s playoff odds were minuscule. But the Sun Devils won six straight down the stretch, and star Cam Skattebo almost took them even further. Behind his 242 yards from scrimmage against Texas, they were one play away from the semifinals but fell agonizingly short.
51. 2024 Tennessee (10-3)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 42-17 in the first round
Despite Josh Heupel’s offensive tendencies, his Vols reached the CFP in 2024 by fielding their best defense since 1999. They ran the ball well, defended the run better than anyone and rode a home win over Alabama to a playoff berth. Unfortunately, their limitations were made clear in Columbus. They punted three straight times to start the game, found themselves quickly down 21-0 and couldn’t recover.
50. 2025 Texas A&M (11-1)
CFP matchup: First round vs. Miami
With bursts of spectacular upside countering frustrating funks — most vividly captured by a 27-point comeback against South Carolina — Mike Elko’s Aggies went 4-0 in one-score games; avoided Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss in SEC play; and began the season 11-0. They have a speedy skill corps, a beautifully structured offense, a fierce pass rush and a first-round home game. But a playoff tends to punish funks.
49. 2014 Florida State (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to Oregon 59-20
The Seminoles returned lots of key figures from their 2013 national title romp, but they had to eke out tight win after tight win — seven one-score games in all. While the BCS would have given us a Bama-FSU title game that year, the CFP gave the Noles the No. 3 seed and sent them to the Rose Bowl, where a 34-0 Ducks run ended Florida State’s 29-game winning streak in stark fashion.
48. 2018 Notre Dame (12-1)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 30-3
The Fighting Irish earned their spot in the playoff with increasingly dominant wins over quality Michigan, Stanford and Syracuse teams. The defense was solid and excellent (second in defensive SP+), but the offensive limitations were made crystal clear when the Irish had to face Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. The game was tied after one quarter, but it got much, much worse from there.
47. 2025 Ole Miss (11-1)
CFP matchup: First round vs. Tulane
The Rebels’ stay in the 2025 playoffs might forever be defined by who wasn’t there — Lane Kiffin left for LSU after the regular season — and they probably don’t have the same raw upside as the 2024 team that fell just short of a bid. But Ole Miss can both run through and pass over opponents, and the only test the Rebels haven’t passed this year is “Can you survive a rugged fourth quarter in Athens?” They’re capable of a run.
46. 2021 Cincinnati (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 27-6
Even adjusting for strength of schedule, Luke Fickell’s CFP debutants finished sixth in SP+. The Bearcats physically dominated a strong Notre Dame squad and absolutely earned their playoff spot, and once there, they hemmed in Bryce Young and the Alabama passing attack. The problem: They got gashed by the Bama run game and, more importantly, couldn’t even slightly protect quarterback Desmond Ridder in a Cotton Bowl loss.
45. 2018 Oklahoma (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 45-34
OU lost Baker Mayfield but somehow improved offensively. Kyler Murray threw for 4,361 yards and rushed for 1,001, but unfortunately, the defense was dreck. Lincoln Riley fired coordinator Mike Stoops six games in, but the Sooners allowed 44 points per game over their final six contests and gave up 31 first-half points to Alabama in the Orange Bowl. That was too much for even Murray to overcome.
44. 2015 Oklahoma (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 37-17
Bob Stoops’ Sooners headed into 2015 with a new offensive coordinator (Lincoln Riley) and a transfer quarterback (Baker Mayfield), and after a disappointing 2014, OU reignited. The Sooners won a loaded Big 12 and were 3.5-point favorites against Clemson in the Orange Bowl. They took a 17-16 lead into halftime, but Clemson shifted into fifth gear in the second half and sent the Sooners home with a 20-point loss.
43. 2016 Ohio State (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 31-0
After what might have been Urban Meyer’s most talented Ohio State team missed the CFP in 2015, the most offensively limited one made it the next year. The defense was strong enough to limit Deshaun Watson and Clemson to just two touchdowns in the Tigers’ first 10 drives in the semifinal, but the Buckeyes’ offense, which ranked 20th in offensive SP+ (terrible by their standards), got embarrassed.
42. 2017 Clemson (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 24-6
You know your program is in great shape when “transition year” means “only making the CFP semis.” The Tigers boasted perhaps the best defense of the Dabo Swinney era, but Deshaun Watson was gone, and Trevor Lawrence wouldn’t arrive in town for another year. Clemson was too good for the rest of the ACC but gained just 188 yards against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, bowing out slightly earlier than normal.
41. 2023 Alabama (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Michigan 27-20
Nick Saban’s final team was maybe his worst since 2007 and ranked just eighth in the CFP rankings before an SEC championship upset of Georgia. The Tide mastered the art of surviving, advancing and saving their best performance for the most important games. And when they were given a lifeline by snagging a CFP spot over Florida State, they nearly made the most of it, leading eventual champ Michigan into the final two minutes before succumbing in overtime.
40. 2021 Michigan (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 34-11
A loss to Michigan State set Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines back early on, but they took down Ohio State for the first time in a decade, then stomped Iowa to win their first outright Big Ten title since 2003. This was an excellent team and the champion of an excellent conference, but the Wolverines ran into a slight problem in the Orange Bowl: They weren’t better than Georgia at a single thing. That will catch up to you.
39. 2024 Penn State (13-3)
CFP result: Beat SMU 38-10; beat Boise State 31-14; lost to Notre Dame 27-24 in the Orange Bowl semifinal
James Franklin’s Penn State tenure was defined by an extreme ability to control the controllables and a failure to rise to the biggest occasions. The Nittany Lions beat SMU and Boise State as comfortable favorites to reach the 2024 semis and came achingly close to beating Notre Dame. But they came up short, and their attempt to keep the band together and go all-in in 2025 crumpled to the ground too.
38. 2023 Texas (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Washington 37-31
Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns gave Alabama its first double-digit home loss of the entire Nick Saban era. They beat seven other bowl-eligible teams by an average of 24 points and pummeled Oklahoma State by 28 in the Big 12 championship game. They returned to relevance in a major way, but they couldn’t slow Michael Penix Jr. and Washington in the Sugar Bowl. The Huskies quarterback threw for 430 yards and made Texas’ first playoff stay a one-gamer.
37. 2022 TCU (13-2)
CFP result: Defeated Michigan 51-45; lost to Georgia 65-7 in the national championship
Heisman runner-up Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs were close-game masters, winning five one-score games during a 12-0 start and losing only to a top-10 Kansas State team in the Big 12 championship. Their big-play ability and volatility were fully on display in the CFP, where they pulled off an upset of Michigan in maybe the best game of 2022, then got absolutely trounced by Georgia in the national title game.
36. 2024 Texas (13-3)
CFP result: Beat Clemson 38-24; beat Arizona State 39-31; lost to Ohio State 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl semifinal
With a dynamite defense and an occasionally wobbly offense, Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns went 13-0 against teams not named Georgia or Ohio State in 2024. They narrowly survived Arizona State in the quarterfinals thanks to clutch late play from quarterback Quinn Ewers, and they were driving to tie their semifinal late against Ohio State before a Jack Sawyer scoop-and-score touchdown sealed their fate.
35. 2016 Washington (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 24-7
Chris Petersen’s Huskies sent a message by beating a top-20 Stanford squad by 28 points in September, then finished up by felling Colorado by 31 in the Pac-12 championship game. An outstanding defense led by Budda Baker and Greg Gaines mostly controlled Alabama in the Peach Bowl, too; Washington trailed just 10-7 late in the first half before a Ryan Anderson pick-six changed the game.
34. 2024 Georgia (11-3)
CFP result: Lost to Notre Dame 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal
Georgia survived upset bids and a late-season injury to quarterback Carson Beck to still brawl its way to the SEC title despite lacking the elite-level talent that won it the 2021 and 2022 national titles. But the Bulldogs couldn’t do Gunner Stockton enough favors against Notre Dame, in his first career start, and allowing 17 points in 56 seconds in the middle of the game was too much to overcome.
33. 2025 Georgia (12-1)
CFP matchup: Sugar Bowl quarterfinal vs. Ole Miss or Tulane
The current version of the Dawgs scraped by early with nothing but guile and second-half adjustments, then kicked into gear late. An inexperienced defense established a high level in November, and Georgia avenged its lone loss, to Alabama, with an SEC championship game blowout. Do the Dawgs have the big-play capabilities for a playoff run? I’m not sure, but as always, you do not want to find yourself in a brawl with Georgia.
32. 2025 Oregon (11-1)
CFP matchup: First round vs. James Madison
Oregon’s 2025 outfit combines the offensive upside we’re used to seeing from the Ducks — especially from a run game featuring Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. — with a Big Ten-level defense capable of driving rock-fight wins. Dan Lanning’s team fell only to Indiana in the regular season, but of the teams that didn’t receive a first-round bye this year, the Ducks are the most likely to make a big run.
31. 2017 Oklahoma (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 54-48
After a bumpy start, Lincoln Riley’s first Sooners squad found its top gear midway through 2017, winning its final six Big 12 games by an average of 23 points, earning Baker Mayfield the Heisman Trophy and surging to a 31-14 first-half lead over Georgia in the Rose Bowl. The Sooners couldn’t hold on, though. Georgia came back twice to force overtime and won what still is one of the best games of the CFP era.
30. 2025 Texas Tech (11-1)
CFP matchup: Orange Bowl quarterfinal vs. Oregon or James Madison
Tech has beaten the spread in 12 of 13 games this season, a sign that we continue to underestimate just how impressive the Red Raiders are. They might have the two best defensive players in the sport in Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey, and despite multiple injuries to QB Behren Morton (who was hurt during their lone loss), they’ve scored fewer than 29 points just once. Each of their 12 wins has come by at least 22 points.
29. 2023 Washington (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Texas 37-31; lost to Michigan 34-13
The TCU of 2023, Washington boasted both an explosive passing game — Michael Penix Jr. threw for 4,903 yards, mostly to the incredible trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan — and exquisite timing: The Huskies won eight games by one score, including two wild wins over a dynamite Oregon team and a 37-31 thriller over Texas in the CFP semifinals. They couldn’t keep up with Michigan in the national title game, but that only dampened the run so much.
28. 2022 Ohio State (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 42-41
After face-planting against Michigan for the second straight year, no team stood to gain more from a CFP bid than Ryan Day’s Buckeyes. And they almost gained everything. Thanks to an incredible performance from quarterback C.J. Stroud, Ohio State held a 38-24 Peach Bowl lead on the champs heading into the fourth quarter. And even when Georgia charged back, the Buckeyes had a field goal try at the buzzer to win it. But it missed badly.
27. 2020 Clemson (10-2)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 49-28
It’s hard to properly grade a team that was without its star quarterback for one of its two losses (Trevor Lawrence vs. Notre Dame). But while Lawrence threw for 3,153 yards in just 10 games and Travis Etienne was dangerous as both a receiver and a runner, the Tigers’ defense had a bit of a big-play issue at times. And in the semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, they got dominated in the trenches, which made the biggest difference in a 21-point loss to Ohio State.
26. 2022 Michigan (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to TCU 51-45
Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines improved significantly after their brief stay in the 2021 CFP. They were even better at their go-to manball routine, and they proved to have more explosive offensive weapons as well. (Just ask Ohio State.) They were well-rounded and probably the second-best team of 2022, but they fell victim to an onslaught of TCU big plays and couldn’t pull off a last-minute comeback.
25. 2024 Notre Dame (11-2)
CFP result: Beat Indiana 27-17; beat Georgia 23-10; beat Penn State 27-24; lost to Ohio State 34-23 in the national championship
With explosive running backs and dynamite defense, Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish overcame a baffling early loss to Northern Illinois — and a lack of high-level passing — to roll to a playoff berth. After comfortable wins over Indiana and Georgia, they overcame multiple deficits to beat Penn State and reach the championship game. Only the best team in the country was going to take them down at that point.
24. 2014 Oregon (13-2)
CFP result: Beat Florida State 59-20; lost to Ohio State 42-20
Marcus Mariota combined 4,454 passing yards with 770 rushing yards and 57 total touchdowns (and duly won the Heisman), and the Ducks ranked second in offensive SP+. They scored at least 42 points in nine straight games and put up 59 on defending national champion Florida State … but weren’t able score over the final 20 minutes of the national title game. An overwhelmed Ducks defense couldn’t hold Ohio State back.
23. 2024 Oregon (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 41-21 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal
In their first Big Ten season, the Ducks won their first 13 games behind Dillon Gabriel‘s ruthlessly efficient passing, a 1,200-yard season from Jordan James and one of the best pass defenses in the country. They beat Ohio State and Penn State and earned the No. 1 seed in the CFP, but luck of the draw was not on their side: They were swarmed by a revenge-minded Buckeyes team in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
22. 2025 Ohio State (11-1)
CFP matchup: Cotton Bowl quarterfinal vs. Texas A&M or Miami
The Buckeyes began the regular season with a tight win over Texas, ended it with a tight loss to Indiana and won 11 straight in between by an average score of 39-8. They might have the most talented players in the country on both offense (Jeremiah Smith) and defense (Caleb Downs), and they head into the CFP knowing that peaking now is what matters. It would be a surprise if we didn’t see the Buckeyes’ best in December.
21. 2014 Alabama (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 42-35
The 2014 season saw both the dawn of the CFP era and the beginning of the Great Nick Saban Offensive Evolution. He hired Lane Kiffin to modernize a stale offense, and after an early loss to Ole Miss, the Tide won eight straight to earn the No. 1 seed in the first CFP. They jumped out to a 21-6 lead on Ohio State, but three turnovers and a famous Ezekiel Elliott touchdown run did them in.
20. 2015 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 37-17; lost to Alabama 45-40
Eight years ago, Clemson was still an upstart. Quarterback Deshaun Watson was healthy and dominant, and the Tigers began to look the part of a contender. They outlasted Notre Dame in an October monsoon and blew most of a huge lead against North Carolina before surviving. In the CFP, the Tigers surged past Oklahoma in the second half and led Bama before succumbing in what might have been the greatest fourth quarter in CFP history.
19. 2017 Georgia (13-2)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 54-48; lost to Alabama 26-23
Kirby Smart’s second UGA team all but ended a 37-year national title drought. The Dawgs won at Notre Dame in September, destroyed all comers in the SEC East and avenged their lone loss with a dominant SEC championship game win over Auburn. They outlasted Oklahoma in the greatest game in CFP history and had Alabama all but beaten in the championship game … until Tua Tagovailoa came onto the field.
18. 2020 Ohio State (7-1)
CFP result: Beat Clemson 49-28; lost to Alabama 52-24
The Buckeyes played only eight games, but they won four by at least 21 points, including a 49-28 victory over Trevor Lawrence and Clemson in the semifinals. They lived up to most of their preseason hype and avenged their 2019 semifinal loss to the Tigers. They also lost the national title game by 28 points. Still, in a year of abbreviated schedules and limited two-deeps, Ohio State was a poster child of sorts, and the Buckeyes looked the part until the final act.
17. 2021 Alabama (13-2)
CFP result: Beat Cincinnati 27-6; lost to Georgia 33-18
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide had maybe the best offensive (Bryce Young) and defensive (Will Anderson Jr.) players in the country but didn’t enjoy as much depth and experience as normal and were lucky to reach 11-1. But they walloped Georgia in the SEC championship game, then beat Cincinnati with pure physicality to reach the final. They led Georgia in the fourth quarter of the championship game, too, but the Dawgs scored the final 20 points.
16. 2025 Indiana (13-0)
CFP matchup: Rose Bowl quarterfinal vs. Oklahoma or Alabama
It’s hard to tentatively rank a team much higher than this, knowing that up to three more games will be needed to tell the entire tale. But the Hoosiers have the only unbeaten record this season, they just beat Ohio State in one of the more impressive proof-of-concept games in recent memory, and their quarterback just won the Heisman. With three more wins, they would end up well into the single digits here.
15. 2016 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Washington 24-7; lost to Clemson 35-31
Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts took over as Alabama’s starter. A rebuilding season in Tuscaloosa? Hardly. Hurts won SEC Offensive Player of the Year, and the Tide rolled to the CFP final unbeaten, with only one win by single digits. They couldn’t finish the job, though. With star running back Bo Scarbrough hurt, the Alabama offense couldn’t stay on the field, and an exhausted defense gave up three late scores to fall to Clemson.
14 and 13. 2019 Ohio State (13-1) and 2019 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: Clemson beat Ohio State 29-23, then lost to LSU 42-25
It was overshadowed by LSU’s late-season brilliance, but both the Buckeyes and Tigers were unreal for most of 2019. They went a combined 26-0 in the regular season; 22 of the wins were by at least 24 points, and only one was by single digits. And in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal, they played one of the most even and compelling games in recent college football memory.
Ohio State dominated the early proceedings, going up 16-0 but settling for field goals; that offered Clemson a lifeline, and the Tigers charged back. The second half featured three scores and three lead changes, and after controversy and countless plot twists, Nolan Turner‘s interception of Justin Fields made the difference. If they’d played 100 times, each team would have won 50.
12. 2015 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Michigan State 38-0; beat Clemson 45-40
The second Saban-Kiffin mashup showed plenty of early flaws. New starting quarterback Jake Coker was shaky early on and briefly got benched, and while the defense was mostly solid, it got torched by Ole Miss in an early loss. But the Tide manhandled No. 2 LSU in early November, and Coker caught fire down the stretch. Thanks in part to a classic surprise onside kick, Bama outlasted Clemson in a title-game thriller.
11. 2016 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Ohio State 31-0; beat Alabama 35-31
Clemson nearly lost to Auburn, Troy and Lamar Jackson‘s Louisville teams early and did lose to Pitt in mid-November. But as would become a Dabo Swinney custom, the Tigers turned into Angry Clemson after their loss, humiliating South Carolina, keeping Virginia Tech mostly at arm’s reach and shutting out Ohio State. Trailing Bama by 10 in the final, the Tigers played a nearly perfect fourth quarter, exhausting the Tide’s defense and scoring the title-winning touchdown with one second remaining.
10. 2014 Ohio State (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Alabama 42-35; beat Oregon 42-20
The ultimate “peak when you most need to” team. Ranked 16th in the initial CFP rankings, Ohio State kept getting better and rising down the stretch. Needing a huge statement in the Big Ten championship game, the Buckeyes unleashed the hugest statement, beating Wisconsin 59-0 to eke out the No. 4 CFP seed. They then proceeded to beat Bama with a 28-0 run and take down Oregon with a late 21-0 run. Late-arriving? Nope, just in time.
9. 2024 Ohio State (10-2)
CFP result: Beat Tennessee 42-17; beat Oregon 41-21; beat Texas 28-14; beat Notre Dame 34-23 in the national championship
Apparently the trick is finishing with a loss. Guess it adds motivation. The 2022 Ohio State team lost to Michigan, then nearly beat an incredible Georgia team in the CFP. The 2024 team lost to Michigan, then ripped off a four-game run that will stand as the model moving forward: Four top-10 opponents stood in the way, and four fell by an average of 17 points.
Hmm … Ohio State finished the 2025 regular season with a loss, too. Huh …
8. 2018 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 45-34; lost to Clemson 44-16
The 2018 Bama squad was just as good as the 2020 Tide on paper but couldn’t clear the final hurdle. The Tide destroyed their first 14 opponents by an average of 32 points, and only Georgia in the SEC championship game offered any resistance (though the Dawgs offered quite a bit). The Tide combined Nick Saban’s best offense yet with a top-10 defense … but they laid the ultimate egg in the CFP finale.
7. 2017 Alabama (13-1)
CFP result: Beat Clemson 24-6; beat Georgia 26-23
Bama went scorched earth during an 11-0 start, but the offense grew rickety late. The Tide barely eked out a CFP bid after a 26-14 loss to Auburn, and they trailed Georgia 13-0 at halftime in the championship game before freshman Tua Tagovailoa tagged in, led Bama on a 20-7 run and — after the Tide nearly won in regulation — threw a famous second-and-26 strike to DeVonta Smith to win Nick Saban his sixth national title.
6. 2021 Georgia (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Michigan 34-11; beat Alabama 33-18
Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs were far and away the best team of the season’s first three months, combining steady and efficient offense with college football’s most consistently dominant defense in years. Only Bama scored more than 17 points on the Dawgs, who lost to the Tide in the SEC championship game but rebounded to pen a happy ending and, with help from a game-clinching Kelee Ringo pick-six, win their first national title in 41 years.
5. 2018 Clemson (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Notre Dame 30-3; beat Alabama 44-16
Clemson barely survived September unbeaten, needing a 2-point-conversion stop to escape Texas A&M and a rousing comeback led by backup quarterback Chase Brice to beat Syracuse. But once Trevor Lawrence was healthy and established in the starting lineup, no one had any hope against the Tigers. They beat Florida State by 49, Wake Forest by 60 and Louisville by 61, and they won two CFP games by a combined 74-19. Goodness.
4. 2023 Michigan (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Alabama 27-20; beat Washington 34-13
The Wolverines beat Penn State and Ohio State without suspended head coach Jim Harbaugh, and even with off-the-field matters swirling in the background, they were rarely challenged on the field, winning 11 games by at least 21 points. They extended their Big Ten winning streak to 25 games, they handed Nick Saban a Rose Bowl loss in his final game as a head coach, and with the national title on the line, they put on a defensive clinic. They dominated a brilliant Washington offensive line, holding the prolific Huskies to just 301 total yards and rolling to their first national title in 26 years.
3. 2022 Georgia (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Ohio State 42-41; beat TCU 65-7
Only twice did the defending national champs find themselves in a down-to-the-wire game, and only once did they have to lean on the college football gods for help (with Ohio State’s last-second field goal miss in the semifinals). They scored at least 37 points in 11 games and allowed 14 or fewer in nine. They didn’t have quite the level of high-end talent their 2021 team boasted, but they were an even more dominant team.
2. 2019 LSU (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 63-28; beat Clemson 42-25
Plenty of coaches have attempted to modernize their offenses in the hopes of giving their programs a shot in the arm. Ed Orgeron’s 2019 team set the bar impossibly high for any future modernizers. With help from an elite skill corps, Joe Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns (!!!). Once LSU’s defense got healthy late in the year, the Tigers were untouchable, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning their last six games by an average of 30 points.
1. 2020 Alabama (13-0)
CFP result: Beat Notre Dame 31-14; beat Ohio State 52-24
The Crimson Tide had the Nos. 1, 3 and 5 finishers in the Heisman voting. They played one game decided by fewer than 14 points. They bested an SEC-only schedule by an average of 30.2 points per game. Their defense struggled early but allowed only 15 points per game after mid-October. This was the best Nick Saban team ever and quite possibly the best of the 21st century.
Best team … from the best coach … with the best dynasty of the 21st century (at the very least)? Sounds like the best team of the CFP era.
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