The winners of the Big 12 and Mountain West championship games are also in.
So, unless Clemson wins the ACC and closes out the field, that leaves one spot remaining with a host of teams offering compelling cases for inclusion.
But let’s start with something that should be obvious: The 12th team to make the field will be flawed. This isn’t a new phenomenon based on weak schedules or shocking losses. The No. 12 team in the ranking every year has its share of warts. That’s why it’s No. 12. We’re just used to arguing over a top four, not No. 12, so wrapping our heads around a playoff team with a loss to — oh, let’s say Vanderbilt — seems entirely wrong. When it comes to picking 12 teams, there will always be reasons to argue someone doesn’t belong or has done something so inexcusably awful they should be excluded without further debate.
But, of course, if that were true, Notre Dame would already be packing its bags for the Music City Bowl.
Instead, we should be viewing the process of picking the No. 12 team through an optimist’s lens. What have these teams done to earn their way in? Why should we believe they’re capable of — well, maybe not winning it all, but at least putting on a good show in the opening round? What’s the sales pitch for inclusion?
And when we view the decision through that lens, there are at least three reasonable, logical paths to follow.
But this is about a meeting of the College Football Playoff selection committee, where hotel security at the Gaylord Texan Hotel has explicit orders to keep reason and logic from stepping foot on the premises, and so, of course, the one team that isn’t left standing at the end of those logical pathways is exactly the team it has tabbed as the leader in the clubhouse: Alabama.
And that, friends, means a lot of programs have ample reason to be angry.
So, let’s walk down those logical pathways as a means of underscoring just how ridiculous the committee’s take on these rankings looks, bringing us to this week’s Anger Index.
There’s an Occam’s razor aspect to this conundrum that the committee should’ve considered: The simplest, most elegant solution is usually the right one.
This was the committee’s solution back in the first year of the playoff. In 2014, the committee was left to decide between 11-1 TCU and 11-1 Baylor. In the regular season, Baylor had beaten TCU head to head by 3 points, but the Bears also had a rather ugly 41-27 loss to West Virginia. The Big 12, at that time, didn’t have a conference championship game, leaving it to the committee to parse out who was more deserving of the No. 4 spot in the playoff.
The committee’s answer? Ohio State!
Baylor won its regular-season finale over No. 9 Kansas State by 11. TCU won its finale against Iowa State by 55-3. And yet the committee moved up 11-1 Ohio State to No. 4, bypassing both Big 12 schools. It was beautiful in its simplicity. Why make an impossible choice between Door No. 1 and Door No. 2 when Door No. 3 is already wide open?
This isn’t necessarily Miami’s best case for the final playoff slot, of course, but the fact that the Hurricanes are 10-2 and those SEC schools vying for the space are all 9-3 is the perfect opportunity for the committee to simply say, “This team has more wins,” the same way it said “Ohio State has a conference championship” as a completely reasonable justification for avoiding a tough call.
And it’s not as if Miami would be a bad choice. The Canes demolished Florida, a team that beat Ole Miss. The Canes demolished USF, a team that took Alabama into the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa. The Canes have two road losses by a combined nine points against two pretty good teams — No. 22 Syracuse and a 7-5 Georgia Tech team that just took Georgia to eight overtimes (and probably should’ve won if the officials had been watching the game). QB Cam Ward is extraordinary, the offense is fun, the Canes can play with pretty much anyone, and none of their losses are bad. Isn’t that effectively South Carolina’s pitch?
So, yeah, giving the 12th playoff spot to Miami would’ve been an easy win for the committee. Instead, it chose pain.
Indeed, it docked Miami more spots for a road loss to the No. 22 team in the country than it did for Ohio State losing to 7-5 Michigan.
If the committee didn’t want to prioritize the simplest solution by going with the team with the best record, then certainly you’d think the argument came down to this: Not all wins are equal, and therefore we should choose the team that had proven the most on the field.
Well, folks, the answer to that question is absolutely Ole Miss.
Ole Miss and Alabama both beat South Carolina head to head, but the Rebels dominated their game, while the Tide snuck by with a two-point win.
Ole Miss and Alabama have the same best win, against No. 5 Georgia. But Alabama came within minutes of one of the most epic collapses in college football history, narrowly escaping with a seven-point win. Ole Miss, on the other hand, beat Georgia by 18 in a game that was never particularly close. In fact, do you know the last team to beat Georgia by more points than Ole Miss did this year? That would be the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the best college football team ever assembled.
Ole Miss is ranked higher in SP+, too. The Rebels are an analytics dream team, with one of the top offenses and defenses in the country statistically. SP+ has the Rebels at No. 3 — ahead of Texas! — while Alabama checks in at No. 5, Miami at No. 10 and South Carolina at No. 13.
OK, but what about strength of schedule? Doesn’t that favor Alabama? It does, but that metric isn’t exactly what it seems. According to ESPN, the Tide played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country, while Ole Miss played the 31st. That seems like a big difference, right? But when we look at the hard numbers rather than the ranking, the difference is only about 1% (Bama at 98.97 and Ole Miss at 97.66). That’s basically the difference between Alabama playing Western Kentucky and Ole Miss playing MTSU. Oh, and if strength of schedule really matters that much, South Carolina ranks ahead of both of them.
And let’s talk about that schedule, because it wasn’t the “strength” that proved to be Alabama’s undoing. The Tide lost to a pair of 6-6 teams. It was the mediocrity on their slate that killed them.
OK, yes, Ole Miss lost to a couple pretty average teams, too — 7-5 Florida and 4-8 Kentucky. But again, if the records were all that mattered to the committee, Miami would be in the playoff. So let’s compare SP+ rankings for those losses.
Alabama lost to SP+ Nos. 8, 31 and 58 for an average of 32.3.
Ole Miss lost to SP+ Nos. 17, 22 and 48 for an average of 29.0.
So, on average, the Rebels’ losses weren’t as bad as Alabama’s. Their wins were markedly better than Alabama’s. Their underlying stats are better than Alabama’s. Their schedule strength was effectively equal to Alabama’s.
So explain to us again why Ole Miss isn’t in the No. 11 slot, because we’re at a complete loss to understand it.
To be sure, there is not a logical argument in South Carolina’s favor. The Gamecocks have the same record as Alabama and Ole Miss and lost to both of them head to head. That, on its face, should eliminate South Carolina.
But, perhaps there’s a more emotional take here; an “eye test,” if you will.
Watch South Carolina over the past six games — all wins, including against Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson (not to mention a dominant performance against an Oklahoma team that whipped Alabama) — and it’s pretty easy to suggest the Gamecocks are playing as well as any team in the country.
Now, back in the four-team playoff era, this wouldn’t have mattered at all. Go back and look at 2015 Stanford with Christian McCaffrey, which lost its opener to Northwestern before going on a roll and winning 11 of its next 12, or 2016 USC that started 1-3 and reeled off eight straight wins with a new QB. Those teams could’ve genuinely won it all if they had been given a ticket to the dance, but in those days, there was no room for the hottest team. Just the most deserving.
But no one truly deserving is left out if we include South Carolina now. Miami and Alabama and Ole Miss (and others) all have their arguments in favor of inclusion, but as we noted at the top, all have enough warts to miss out, too.
So why not take the team playing the best? How many times in the NFL playoffs have we seen a team that finished strong go on a run and win the Super Bowl? Are they any less a champion, because they lost a couple games in September?
South Carolina’s inclusion would be a boon for all the teams that grow as the season progresses, get better through coaching, hard work and perseverance, that overcome adversity and rise to meet the moment. In short, South Carolina is a feel-good story in a sport that should embrace that type of team.
Instead, the committee is embracing Darth Vader because the Empire holds a lot of sway over the galaxy.
Here’s a fun blind comparison.
Team A: 10-2, No. 12 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 39 and 51 with best win against SP+ No. 12
Team B: 10-2, No. 14 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 50 and 59 with best win against SP+ No. 18
Neither of these teams will play in their conference championship games.
If you had to pick one for the playoff, which would you take?
Well, the records are the same, but Team A seems to have the edge everywhere else, right?
OK, Team A is BYU.
Team B? That’s Miami.
We’re not arguing against Miami, but Miami checks in as the first team out. BYU checks in behind three-loss Clemson!
Perhaps the Cougars’ losses (to Arizona State and Kansas) are reason enough for exclusion (though by that logic, we should be waving goodbye to Alabama and Ole Miss, too), but the fact that BYU isn’t even in the conversation is ridiculous.
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Booger: Committee on ‘slippery slope’ choosing Alabama over Miami
Booger McFarland and Joey Galloway discuss whether the CFP selection committee is making the right decision favoring Alabama over Miami.
We’ve laid out perfectly reasonable arguments for Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina and BYU.
What’s the argument for Alabama?
Strength of schedule? South Carolina’s is better.
A big win vs. Georgia? Ole Miss beat the Dawgs by more.
Strength of record? That’s just a function of strength of schedule, and frankly any record that includes losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — including one blowout — isn’t very “strong.”
Teams that did not lose by more than a TD this year: Oregon, 12-0 Notre Dame, 11-1 Penn St, 11-1 Boise St, 11-1 SMU, 11-1 Miami, 10-2 BYU, 10-2 ULL, 10-2 Ohio St, 10-2 UNLV, 10-2 Ole Miss, 9-3 Louisville, 8-4 (Side note: Southern Miss went 0-11 vs FBS with all 11 losses by more…
Better stats? Ole Miss is rated higher in SP+, Miami’s offense is far more compelling, and South Carolina’s defense is, too.
So what exactly is the case for Alabama?
Committee chair Warde Manuel’s best attempt at an explanation: Alabama is 3-1 vs. the current top 25. That, of course, ignores that Miami has wins vs. the Nos. 1 and 3 teams in the AP’s others receiving votes list, and ranking 25 teams is an entirely arbitrary cutoff. And more importantly, it ignores that Alabama is also 6-2 vs. teams not in the current top 25.
No, the real case for Alabama is the same one the committee made last year, that it believes — in spite of any hard evidence — that Alabama is just better. It believes Alabama would win a future hypothetical matchup. It is prioritizing a gut feeling.
We can criticize the committee for a lot of things, but most of it is hair-splitting, and the folks on the committee have a particularly tough job. We’re sympathetic. But when this group continually — year after year (yes, we’re talking to you, Florida State) — ignores what happens in the actual games on the actual field of play in favor of its own projections, that threatens to undermine the entire sport, and that’s a shame.
Is Alabama a good football team? Sure. If the Tide get in, could they win a game or two or the whole darn thing? Absolutely. But if that’s the criteria, then there was no need for Alabama’s players to suit up 12 times this year and go to battle, and that’s an insult to them — even if it means handing them a gift in the process.
We’ve argued a bunch over the No. 12 team, but there’s another debate rolling in the college football world, and that involves conference championships.
The debate has largely centered on SMU and whether the Mustangs, if they lose the ACC title to Clemson, should be reevaluated if they’re 11-2 (particularly if Clemson is stealing a playoff bid).
It’s a reasonable discussion. On one hand, there is precedent. Just two years ago, USC entered conference championship week ranked No. 4, only to lose in a blowout to Utah. The committee dropped the Trojans to No. 10 and rewarded Ohio State — a team that was sitting at home and watching championship weekend — with a playoff berth. At the time, virtually no one even mentioned this. It made logical sense.
But in the 12-team era, when there should ostensibly be a larger margin for error, it seems entirely wrong to suggest a team that won the right to play an extra game should then have that extra data point held against it to the point that it falls out of the playoff field. (And, oh, how ironic would it be if Lane Kiffin complained about this very possibility, suggesting it was better to miss the SEC title game, only to have Kiffin’s team get in as a result of missing the SEC championship and SMU losing the ACC championship.)
But the big point being missed here is that the discussion shouldn’t stop with SMU. What about Boise State?
The Broncos are currently one of the four teams set to get first-round byes because of an 11-1 record, a head-to-head win over UNLV and a largely dominant season. But if they lose a rematch to UNLV — a team it has already beaten once — then the Broncos would be out of the playoff entirely.
Is that fair?
Well, here’s another comparison.
Team A: 11-1, No. 13 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 3, four wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and one win vs. a currently ranked foe.
Team B: 11-1, No. 8 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 23, three wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and no wins vs. currently ranked foes.
It should be noted here that the schedule strength difference between the two is about an 8% margin — notable, but not significant.
Who would you say was more deserving of a playoff bid?
Team A, as you might’ve guessed, is Boise State.
Team B is ranked one spot ahead of the Broncos. It’s Indiana, a team that won’t play another game and is considered safely in.
So, why exactly is Boise State not also safely in right now?
It’s a question the committee should be asking.
Also angry this week:Duke Blue Devils (9-3, unranked), Missouri Tigers (9-3, No. 19), Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3, No. 21), Georgia Bulldogs (who were docked far worse for losses against Ole Miss and Alabama than Ohio State was for losing to 7-5 Michigan), Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, No. 7 and should have the first-round home game being handed to Ohio State) and Ryan Day, because life is really unfair sometimes.
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
CINCINNATI — Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jake Fraley was activated from the 10-day injured list on Saturday.
He had injured his right shoulder while trying to make a diving catch June 23 against the New York Yankees.
An MRI revealed a partially torn labrum that will eventually require surgery. Fraley received a cortisone shot and will try to play through it for the rest of the season.