Sir Keir Starmer to unveil ‘plan for change’ – what is it and why now?

Published

7 months ago

December 5, 2024

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After five months in power, even the most loyal cabinet members would quietly admit it’s been a rocky run for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour.

The prime minister’s personal polling ratings have tumbled from a +7 in the post-election honeymoon to -29 now.

Many pensioners, business owners, entrepreneurs and farmers are angry, and between the Downing Street power struggles that became front page news, rows over freebies and the first cabinet resignation, it can at times be hard to pinpoint what this government is about and trying to achieve.

Politics latest: Starmer comes under attack over ‘convicted fraudster’ ex-minister

Starmer won big in the summer but is struggling to punch through.

Thursday is a serious attempt to change that. Because this is when Sir Keir will give you, the voter, the nuts and bolts of what to expect in the first half of the ‘decade of renewal’ he has long talked about.

You will be getting a series of “mission milestones” from the prime minister to give you clear markers on which to measure this government and Whitehall – a sharp navigation tool for a government that has been somewhat buffeted by side winds since taking office.

From Thursday onwards the “plan for change” will be, as one person in the top team puts it, the Northern Star of Starmer’s first term in office.

What it looks like will be a checklist of what the government wants to achieve and when it comes to the next election day, you will be able to judge whether Labour have delivered or not.

The pledges will be hung around the missions for government that Sir Keir set out in opposition in February 2023 which then formed the backbone of his manifesto.

In a nutshell, these five missions (a sixth, to tackle small boats was introduced in May 2024) were to turn the UK into the fastest growing economy in the G7, improve the NHS and cut NHS waiting lists, launch a new border security command to drive down small boat crossings, make Britain a clean energy power, safer streets and improve opportunities for all through improvements in childcare, schools and further education.

Turning missions into milestones

On Thursday, those missions will be turned into a set of milestones for this parliament.

The PM hopes it will help voters better understand what he wants to achieve to improve their lives, while giving us all a checklist to hold the government to account.

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Number 10 also wants these “measurable milestones” to galvanise delivery in Whitehall and force reform, be it through the use of artificial intelligence and tech, re-organisation, and efficiency savings.

I’m told there will be two elements to this.

The first part of what the PM will outline is about fixing the foundations – economic stability, secure borders and national security. Within that, the prime minister will make a clear commitment to reduce net migration and reduce small boat crossings.

The second part will be the mission milestones: For the NHS, there will be a pledge to carry out 92% of routine operations and appointments within 18 weeks by March 2029, a target that has not been hit for almost and decade and will require the current 6.7 million waiting list to be halved in the next five years.

Pledge for thousands more police officers

There will be a new promise for 13,000 police officers on the streets with every neighbourhood having a named, contactable police officer in their community, dealing with local issues.

There will be pledges too on early years education and recommitment that all electricity will come from renewables and nuclear by 2030.

On the economy, the prime minister will pledge to improve living standards, as the more abstract mission to have the fastest growing economy in the G7 is made, to quote one government figure, “real for people around the kitchen table”.

Labour know all too well what happened to their US sister party the Democrats when they talked in broad terms about growth rather than telling voters what it really meant for their pocket, so you can expect the ‘growth commitment’ to be turned into some sort of disposable income target.

No migration mission milestone

As I understand it, there will not be a “mission milestone” on migration, which could well raise eyebrows on Thursday given that the prime minister explicitly added tackling small boats to his missions in the run-up to the election.

Five missions became six first steps in the general election campaign as Labour put tackling small boats on the same footing as the other long-term mission with a pledge to set up a new border command to drive down illegal crossings.

At the time, it was seen as an admission from the Labour opposition that they needed to give voters an offer on small boats and illegal migration. To not include it in the “milestones” on which Starmer is prepared to be measured by the public may well raise questions.

For its part, the prime minister’s team has been at pains to stress these new milestones are not an attempt at a reset, but rather a continuation of the mission-led government Sir Keir has been talking about for over 18 months, from opposition into power.

PM unbothered by critics

Insiders say the milestones are the “obvious next step” which Sir Keir and his team were always going to take and follow the processes that have characterised his ascent to the leadership and style of opposition: logical, methodical follow through of ideas he’s been working on.

Those who work with Sir Keir say he tends to be unbothered by the criticism and views it as the rough and tumble of getting on with it as he ploughs ahead with this plan.

But there is an acknowledgement in all of this that to have any hope of holding his fragile and shallow coalition of support together, then Starmer needs to take on, as one government figure put it, “the tsunami of cynicism”.

This cynicism has imbibed our politics in recent years on the back of broken promises around migration, NHS waiting lists, compounded by partygate and the Truss mini-budget that did for the Tories and for any residual trust in politics too, they said.

Tackling Farage and Reform

Sir Keir’s election strategists Pat McFadden, who now runs the cabinet office at the heart of government, and Morgan McSweeney, who now runs Downing Street as the PM’s chief of staff, know that deliverables are their route to being able to answer the populist and insurgency politics driving the rise of Nigel Farage and Reform.

Former cabinet minister Harriet Harman pointed out in our Electoral Dysfunction podcast that if the story of the 2024 election was Reform eating into the Conservative vote, the battle of the next one will also be driven on whether Labour can hold off the party in strongholds such as Wales, Scotland and parts of the Red Wall where Reform came in second in dozens of seats.

If you look at council by-elections since the general election, argues Baroness Harman, Reform have gained 10 points, while Labour have lost 10 points and the Conservative party has stayed put.

Nigel Farage has made no secret of his desire to start taking votes off the new ‘establishment’, the Labour government.

Sir Keir is clearly alive to the threat, as just days after Donald Trump’s victory in the US election the prime minister said the economy and borders were his two top priorities in government.

These are the battlegrounds on which the Tories and Reform will try to fight them, with the former badly damaged on both and the latter now trying to take lumps out of Labour.

Risk in setting milestones

“There’s more at stake than losing the next election,” one senior Labour figure opined to me the other week. “People thinking we cannot fix problems is the real risk for all progressives. If people don’t believe politics can improve things it will only feed more into the politics of division and hate.”

There is also a risk in setting milestones. Too soft and they become meaningless, too ambitious without a concrete plan to deliver them, and you set yourself up to fail. “We have to prioritise and know the route map,’ explained one government figure. “We might not hit it,” they added, acknowledging the jeopardy.

What about Sunak’s targets?

You might remember Rishi Sunak’s five targets – halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.

At the time of the general election campaign, we went through these line-by-line in the Sky News Battle for No 10 leadership interviews, and Mr Sunak had to tell a live audience that on NHS waiting lists, stopping small boats and falling debt, he had failed.

He promised the public “no tricks, no ambiguity” and owned those failures before being given the verdict at the ballot box a few weeks later.

When I asked Sir Keir in Rio at the G7 summit what the essence of his leadership was, he said: “I want working people to be better off. I want people to feel the impact of our policies in their pocket so that they can enjoy life in the way they want to, with themselves and their family.

“The basic security is that working people want a decent wage that provides for them in their family. Education allows their children to go as far as their talent will take them, a health service that’s there when they need it. But in a nutshell, it’s about making working people feel better off, and I am determined that that will remain my focus.”

Thursday’s milestones will be built around that central goal to make people better off, in their pockets, and in their lives – be it better schooling for their kids or better access to the local GP or hospital, or cleaner energy.

Tangible pledges on which the prime minister can be measured. It may not be a reset but, if Number 10 gets it right, it has the potential to be a fresh start for a prime minister who has failed to make his mark with the electorate since he won that election.

UK

‘Stability in Middle East is priority,’ says Starmer – as world reacts to strikes

Published

4 hours ago

June 22, 2025

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'Stability in Middle East is priority,' says Starmer - as world reacts to strikes

Sir Keir Starmer has said stability in the Middle East is “a priority” following US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the world has reacted to the attack.

The prime minister also called on Iran to “return to the negotiating table” to “reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis”.

Follow latest: Iran considering ‘all options’ after US strikes

In a statement, Sir Keir said: “Iran’s nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security.

“Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat.

“The situation in the Middle East remains volatile and stability in the region is a priority.

“We call on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis.”

The UK was not involved in the strikes but was informed about them in advance by the US, Business Minister Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.

Sir Keir and Foreign Secretary David Lammy had been pushing for a diplomatic solution. On Thursday, the prime minister warned of a “real risk of escalation” in the conflict.

The US struck three sites in Iran early on Sunday morning, with Donald Trump boasting the country’s key nuclear sites were “completely and fully obliterated” in an address to the nation from the White House and warned there could be further strikes if Iran retaliates.

Netanyahu praises Trump

Israel‘s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Mr Trump for the strikes, saying: “Your bold decision to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history…

“History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons.”

UN secretary-general ‘gravely alarmed’ by US attack

But UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said he was “gravely alarmed by the use of force” by the US against Iran.

“This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security. There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control – with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world.”

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged all sides to step back and return to the negotiating table. “Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon,” she said in a post on X.

“I urge all sides to step back, return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation,” she said, adding that EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation tomorrow.

How the world reacted to the strikes

Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on X: “We strongly condemn the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, which constitutes a dangerous escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

“The aggression seriously violates the UN Charter and international law and plunges humanity into a crisis with irreversible consequences.”

Venezuela’s foreign minister Yvan Gil said his country’s government “condemns US military aggression” and “demands an immediate cessation of hostilities”.

In a statement, an Australian government spokesperson said Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme “has been a threat to international peace and security”.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said it is “crucial that there be a quick de-escalation of the conflict”.

Italy’s foreign minister Antonio Tajani said after the attack that his country’s government hopes “a de-escalation can begin and Iran can sit down at the negotiating table”.

The US attack came after more than a week of strikes by Israel, which have significantly degraded Iran’s air defences and offensive missile capabilities, and damaged its nuclear enrichment facilities.

Israel’s strikes on Iran have killed at least 865 people and wounded 3,396 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists. The group said of those killed, 365 were civilians and 215 were security force personnel.

UK

Latest polling says if an election was held tomorrow Reform UK would win a majority

Published

4 hours ago

June 22, 2025

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Latest polling says if an election was held tomorrow Reform UK would win a majority

Since the local elections Reform UK has had no shortage of good polls.

But a new one suggests Nigel Farage‘s party has a chance not only of winning the next election, but of claiming a decent Commons majority, too.

In February, Reform topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time, with Nigel Farage’s party edging in front on 25%, Labour pushed into second on 24%, with the Tories on 21%.

But a fresh one from Ipsos puts Reform on 34%, nine points ahead of Labour on 25%, with the Conservatives a distant third on 15%.

While the other parties are flatlining, Reform appears to be pushing boundaries.

Were these figures to be replicated across the country at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same way, then Reform could win as many as 340 seats, giving it a majority of 30, Sky News analysis suggests.

Labour could be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 on last year’s election, while the Tories would hit a record low of 12 seats.

But polling should always be taken with a pinch of salt and with the firm acknowledgement that there is not an election coming any time soon.

Conservative backbenchers might also tell you publicly that opinion polls are notoriously difficult to translate into seat numbers because voting percentages in individual constituencies can vary hugely from the overall average.

But the truth is that the symbolism of Reform UK topping another poll is likely to be noticed by MPs from all parties, especially backbench Conservatives who have actively been hoping their leader, Kemi Badenoch, can help them climb the polls and bring the party back into public favour.

Politics is a brutal game and when it comes to toppling underwhelming party leaders, the Tories are more ruthless than most. One wonders how many of these polls Mrs Badenoch’s party will allow her to endure.

This poll is also a warning to Labour.

As the party approaches a year since its major victory, it will not have much to celebrate if these numbers are anything to go by.

According to this survey, only 19% are satisfied with the job Sir Keir Starmer is doing as prime minister, with 73% dissatisfied.

And the figure of 25% of voters intending to vote Labour is a level not seen since October 2019.

While abstract to much of the public, polling can often shape not only the chatter inside Westminster but how and when plots by MPs begin.

For Reform UK, this is a much-needed morale boost after a surprise resignation by their former Chairman Zia Yusuf, and then an almost immediate U-turn back into the party.

And Kemi Badenoch – who said during her leadership campaign that the Conservatives needed to go back to first principles and that this would take time – will be wondering, seven-and-a-half months after winning the leadership, how much time she really has left.

Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,180 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between 30 May-4 June 2025.

UK

Palestine Action: The ‘enemy within’ or non-violent protesters?

Published

4 hours ago

June 22, 2025

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Palestine Action: The 'enemy within' or non-violent protesters?

The impending ban on protest group Palestine Action has divided opinion – described as both “outrageous” and “long overdue”.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is expected to take the step after the group broke into RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire on e-scooters and sprayed two Voyager planes with red paint.

The prime minister described the attack as “outrageous” and a rapid review of security at MoD bases is under way.

It was the latest protest in a five-year campaign from Palestine Action (PA) that has targeted arms manufacturers, financial institutions, political figures and government buildings.

Red spray paint has become its signature.

On its website, PA says it is a “direct action movement” committed to ending “global participation” in what it calls Israel’s “genocidal and apartheid regime”.

It adds that it uses “disruptive tactics” to target “corporate enablers of the Israeli military-industrial complex”.

Banning the group would make membership of it illegal. It would be treated as a terrorist organisation.

Saeed Taji Farouky, a spokesman for PA, told Sky News that potential proscription was “unfair”, adding that it was “ludicrous” that a “civil society direct action group” could end up on the same list as ISIS.

He added: “It’s not logical, it’s not even consistent with the British legal definition of terrorism, it’s a reaction that’s been taken overnight, with almost no discussion or debate.

“The whole thing is incredibly worrying, mostly for what it means about British law in general, about undermining the very basis of British democracy and the rule of law.”

There are “no circumstances” under which the two people who breached Brize Norton would be handed over to the police, he said.

Singer-songwriter Paloma Faith, who spoke at a pro-Palestine rally in Whitehall in central London on Saturday, told Sky News she was “devastated” by the move.

“I have met some of the people who have friends in that group. They are young students and they are basically trying to do something because they feel that our government is failing them.”

She added that “everyone” wants to end what she described as a “massacre” in Gaza.

Israel says its military campaign in Gaza is a way of defending itself against Hamas, which killed more than a thousand people in its 7 October attacks and took about 240 people hostage. Hamas-run health authorities claim Israeli attacks have since killed almost 56,000 people in Gaza.

Faith continued: “When you scribble on something, or paint on it, it’s a non-violent protest and it shouldn’t be made at the same level as a violent protest – it is unjust.”

Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, backed Palestine Action’s use of non-violent protest.

He told Sky News: “There has been a place for that in all political movements in history.

“In the struggle for the rights of black people in the US, in the struggle against apartheid in South Africa, in the struggle for women to have the vote, people took forms of non-violent direct action.

“Imagine if we had the current [situation] back in those days – we would have been proscribing the suffragettes, treating them as terrorists.”

Others have welcomed the move. Lord Walney, who served as the government’s independent adviser on political violence, told Sky News the decision was “long overdue”.

“Palestine Action have acted as the enemy within which is why it’s right, now, to crack down on them,” he said.

“They have terrorised working people for a number of years and there’s a number of serious violent charges that are going through the court system at the moment.”

The UK government is expected to announce its decision early next week.