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After five months in power, even the most loyal cabinet members would quietly admit it’s been a rocky run for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour.

The prime minister’s personal polling ratings have tumbled from a +7 in the post-election honeymoon to -29 now.

Many pensioners, business owners, entrepreneurs and farmers are angry, and between the Downing Street power struggles that became front page news, rows over freebies and the first cabinet resignation, it can at times be hard to pinpoint what this government is about and trying to achieve.

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Starmer won big in the summer but is struggling to punch through.

Thursday is a serious attempt to change that. Because this is when Sir Keir will give you, the voter, the nuts and bolts of what to expect in the first half of the ‘decade of renewal’ he has long talked about.

You will be getting a series of “mission milestones” from the prime minister to give you clear markers on which to measure this government and Whitehall – a sharp navigation tool for a government that has been somewhat buffeted by side winds since taking office.

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From Thursday onwards the “plan for change” will be, as one person in the top team puts it, the Northern Star of Starmer’s first term in office.

What it looks like will be a checklist of what the government wants to achieve and when it comes to the next election day, you will be able to judge whether Labour have delivered or not.

Sir Keir Starmer. File pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

The pledges will be hung around the missions for government that Sir Keir set out in opposition in February 2023 which then formed the backbone of his manifesto.

In a nutshell, these five missions (a sixth, to tackle small boats was introduced in May 2024) were to turn the UK into the fastest growing economy in the G7, improve the NHS and cut NHS waiting lists, launch a new border security command to drive down small boat crossings, make Britain a clean energy power, safer streets and improve opportunities for all through improvements in childcare, schools and further education.

Turning missions into milestones

On Thursday, those missions will be turned into a set of milestones for this parliament.

The PM hopes it will help voters better understand what he wants to achieve to improve their lives, while giving us all a checklist to hold the government to account.

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Number 10 also wants these “measurable milestones” to galvanise delivery in Whitehall and force reform, be it through the use of artificial intelligence and tech, re-organisation, and efficiency savings.

I’m told there will be two elements to this.

The first part of what the PM will outline is about fixing the foundations – economic stability, secure borders and national security. Within that, the prime minister will make a clear commitment to reduce net migration and reduce small boat crossings.

The second part will be the mission milestones: For the NHS, there will be a pledge to carry out 92% of routine operations and appointments within 18 weeks by March 2029, a target that has not been hit for almost and decade and will require the current 6.7 million waiting list to be halved in the next five years.

Pledge for thousands more police officers

There will be a new promise for 13,000 police officers on the streets with every neighbourhood having a named, contactable police officer in their community, dealing with local issues.

There will be pledges too on early years education and recommitment that all electricity will come from renewables and nuclear by 2030.

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On the economy, the prime minister will pledge to improve living standards, as the more abstract mission to have the fastest growing economy in the G7 is made, to quote one government figure, “real for people around the kitchen table”.

Labour know all too well what happened to their US sister party the Democrats when they talked in broad terms about growth rather than telling voters what it really meant for their pocket, so you can expect the ‘growth commitment’ to be turned into some sort of disposable income target.

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Immigration: Starmer blames Tories

No migration mission milestone

As I understand it, there will not be a “mission milestone” on migration, which could well raise eyebrows on Thursday given that the prime minister explicitly added tackling small boats to his missions in the run-up to the election.

Five missions became six first steps in the general election campaign as Labour put tackling small boats on the same footing as the other long-term mission with a pledge to set up a new border command to drive down illegal crossings.

At the time, it was seen as an admission from the Labour opposition that they needed to give voters an offer on small boats and illegal migration. To not include it in the “milestones” on which Starmer is prepared to be measured by the public may well raise questions.

For its part, the prime minister’s team has been at pains to stress these new milestones are not an attempt at a reset, but rather a continuation of the mission-led government Sir Keir has been talking about for over 18 months, from opposition into power.

PM unbothered by critics

Insiders say the milestones are the “obvious next step” which Sir Keir and his team were always going to take and follow the processes that have characterised his ascent to the leadership and style of opposition: logical, methodical follow through of ideas he’s been working on.

Those who work with Sir Keir say he tends to be unbothered by the criticism and views it as the rough and tumble of getting on with it as he ploughs ahead with this plan.

But there is an acknowledgement in all of this that to have any hope of holding his fragile and shallow coalition of support together, then Starmer needs to take on, as one government figure put it, “the tsunami of cynicism”.

This cynicism has imbibed our politics in recent years on the back of broken promises around migration, NHS waiting lists, compounded by partygate and the Truss mini-budget that did for the Tories and for any residual trust in politics too, they said.

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Is Starmer the right leader to take on Farage?

Tackling Farage and Reform

Sir Keir’s election strategists Pat McFadden, who now runs the cabinet office at the heart of government, and Morgan McSweeney, who now runs Downing Street as the PM’s chief of staff, know that deliverables are their route to being able to answer the populist and insurgency politics driving the rise of Nigel Farage and Reform.

Former cabinet minister Harriet Harman pointed out in our Electoral Dysfunction podcast that if the story of the 2024 election was Reform eating into the Conservative vote, the battle of the next one will also be driven on whether Labour can hold off the party in strongholds such as Wales, Scotland and parts of the Red Wall where Reform came in second in dozens of seats.

If you look at council by-elections since the general election, argues Baroness Harman, Reform have gained 10 points, while Labour have lost 10 points and the Conservative party has stayed put.

Nigel Farage has made no secret of his desire to start taking votes off the new ‘establishment’, the Labour government.

Sir Keir is clearly alive to the threat, as just days after Donald Trump’s victory in the US election the prime minister said the economy and borders were his two top priorities in government.

These are the battlegrounds on which the Tories and Reform will try to fight them, with the former badly damaged on both and the latter now trying to take lumps out of Labour.

Risk in setting milestones

“There’s more at stake than losing the next election,” one senior Labour figure opined to me the other week. “People thinking we cannot fix problems is the real risk for all progressives. If people don’t believe politics can improve things it will only feed more into the politics of division and hate.”

There is also a risk in setting milestones. Too soft and they become meaningless, too ambitious without a concrete plan to deliver them, and you set yourself up to fail. “We have to prioritise and know the route map,’ explained one government figure. “We might not hit it,” they added, acknowledging the jeopardy.

What about Sunak’s targets?

You might remember Rishi Sunak’s five targets – halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.

At the time of the general election campaign, we went through these line-by-line in the Sky News Battle for No 10 leadership interviews, and Mr Sunak had to tell a live audience that on NHS waiting lists, stopping small boats and falling debt, he had failed.

He promised the public “no tricks, no ambiguity” and owned those failures before being given the verdict at the ballot box a few weeks later.

When I asked Sir Keir in Rio at the G7 summit what the essence of his leadership was, he said: “I want working people to be better off. I want people to feel the impact of our policies in their pocket so that they can enjoy life in the way they want to, with themselves and their family.

“The basic security is that working people want a decent wage that provides for them in their family. Education allows their children to go as far as their talent will take them, a health service that’s there when they need it. But in a nutshell, it’s about making working people feel better off, and I am determined that that will remain my focus.”

Thursday’s milestones will be built around that central goal to make people better off, in their pockets, and in their lives – be it better schooling for their kids or better access to the local GP or hospital, or cleaner energy.

Tangible pledges on which the prime minister can be measured. It may not be a reset but, if Number 10 gets it right, it has the potential to be a fresh start for a prime minister who has failed to make his mark with the electorate since he won that election.

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Banksy art theft lands burglar with 13-month prison sentence

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Banksy art theft lands burglar with 13-month prison sentence

A man has been given a 13-month prison sentence for stealing Banksy’s famous Girl With Balloon print from a London gallery.

Larry Fraser, 49, of Beckton, east London, was sentenced on Friday after pleading guilty to one count of non-residential burglary at Kingston Crown Court on 9 October.

The print, one of the street artist‘s most famous, was stolen from a gallery in New Cavendish Street in London at around 11pm on 8 September last year.

The recovered artwork back in the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
The recovered artwork back in the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Fraser used a hammer to smash his way through a glass entrance door at the Grove Gallery before stealing the artwork, which was valued at £270,000.

He concealed his identity with a mask, hooded jacket and gloves, but the Metropolitan Police’s Flying Squad was able to identify him and track him to a location streets away.

He was also caught on CCTV loading the artwork into a van before fleeing the scene.

A second man, 54-year-old James Love, was accused of being the getaway driver in the burglary, but cleared of stealing the print.

Larry Fraser. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
Larry Fraser. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Damage to the Grove Gallery after the theft. Pic: Metropolitan Police
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Damage to the Grove Gallery after the theft. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Fraser was arrested at his home address on 10 September, within 48 hours of the burglary, and charged the next day.

Officers were able to recover the artwork after executing a warrant on the Isle of Dogs. It has now been returned to the gallery.

Fraser pleaded to the court that he was struggling with a historic drug debt and agreed to steal the work “under a degree of pressure and fear”.

He said he did not know what he would be stealing, nor its value, until the day of the offence.

Fraser was caught on CCTV taking the artwork away from the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
Fraser was caught on CCTV taking the artwork away from the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Jeffrey Israel, defending, said Fraser lived with his mother as her principal carer, and had only managed to “break his cycle of drug addiction” after his last prison sentence.

He added that it “would take a bold advocate” to suggest that the value of the print had increased by the burglary, but insisted “that is probably the reality”.

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Judge Anne Brown was unmoved, however, and said the offence was “simply too serious” for a suspended sentence.

“This is a brazen and serious non-domestic burglary,” she said.

“Whilst you did not know the precise value of the print, you obviously understood it to be very valuable.”

She added: “Whilst I am sure there was a high degree of planning, this was not your plan.”

However, Fraser may be eligible for immediate release due to time spent on electronic curfew.

Detective Chief Inspector Scott Mather, who led the Met’s investigation, said: “Banksy’s Girl With Balloon is known across the world – and we reacted immediately to not just bring Fraser to justice but also reunite the artwork with the gallery.

“The speed at which this took place is a testament to the tireless work of the flying squad officers – in total it took just four days for normality to be restored.”

The 2004 artwork was part of a £1.5m collection of 13 Banksy pieces at the gallery.

Gallery manager, Lindor Mehmetaj, said it was “remarkable” for the piece to have been recovered after the theft.

The 29-year-old said: “I was completely, completely shocked, but in a very, very positive way when the Flying Squad showed me the actual artwork.

“It’s very hard to put into words, the weight that comes off your shoulders.”

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‘Incredibly dangerous’ sex offender Chao Xu jailed – as police say there could be hundreds more victims

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'Incredibly dangerous' sex offender Chao Xu jailed - as police say there could be hundreds more victims

An “incredibly dangerous” sex offender who drugged his victims and installed spy cameras around his home has been jailed for life with a minimum term of 14 years – as police appeal for hundreds more potential victims to come forward.

Warning: This article contains details of sexual offences

Chinese national Chao Xu, 33, has been described by police as “one of the most prolific offenders ever uncovered” by the Metropolitan Police.

Xu, who was a law postgraduate student at the University of Greenwich in London between 2015 and 2016, ran his own recruitment business and targeted victims at networking events at his home.

He invented his “Spring of Life” cocktail, a mix of alcohols and Chinese herbal medicines, to sedate guests, and planted spy cameras in items including air fresheners, sanitary packaging and speakers.

Chao Xu setting up his camera
Pic: Met Police:
Image:
Chao Xu setting up his camera
Pic: Met Police:

Police found thousands of pictures and videos, with some showing unconscious or incapacitated victims in his flat in Greenwich, south-east London.

Xu, who is from China but is believed to have been living in the UK since 2013, also covertly filmed women on their daily commutes at stations such as London Bridge in so-called upskirting incidents.

He pleaded guilty to 24 sex offences between 2021 and 2025 at Woolwich Crown Court in August relating to six victims, with two charges relating to a seventh woman left to lie on file.

Xu admitted four counts of rape, eight counts of assault by penetration, four counts of sexual assault, four counts of voyeurism, two counts of administering a substance with intent and two counts of operating equipment beneath the clothing of another without consent (commonly known as upskirting).

Special drink
Pic: Met Police:
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Special drink
Pic: Met Police:


An air freshener with a hidden camera.
Pic: Met Police
Image:
An air freshener with a hidden camera.
Pic: Met Police

An air freshener with a hidden camera
Pic: Met Police
Image:
An air freshener with a hidden camera
Pic: Met Police

‘Incredibly dangerous man’

His Honour Judge Christopher Grout described Xu as an “incredibly dangerous man” who “took great enjoyment” from his offending.

“Your behaviour was calculated and planned, evidenced by the covert recording systems you had set up in your flats and the fact you had incapacitated a number of your victims by drugging them.

“You betrayed the trust of a number of women who you befriended in the most appalling ways imaginable,” he added.

Speaker with hidden camera
Pic: Met Police:
Image:
Speaker with hidden camera
Pic: Met Police:

Hidden camera in bottom left of women's sanitary packaging
Pic: Met Police
Image:
Hidden camera in bottom left of women’s sanitary packaging
Pic: Met Police

Could be hundreds of victims

Another 11 alleged victims have since come forward but the Metropolitan Police believe there are hundreds more in the UK and China, with offences committed in workplaces, public spaces and overseas.

Acting Detective Superintendent Lewis Sanderson described Xu as one of the “most prolific” offenders the force has ever investigated, adding that his “crimes were calculated, sustained, and devastating”.

Speaking outside the court on Friday, he said: “Chao Xu was a prolific and predatory sexual offender who committed some of the most cowardly and abhorrent crimes imaginable. His actions caused deep and lasting harm.”

“The number of victims of sexual assault, voyeurism and upskirting is believed to be in the hundreds. This includes individuals filmed without consent in Xu’s flat at his workplace and in public spaces.

“That is why today I’m making a direct appeal. If you believe you may have been a victim of Chao Xu, or if you have any information that could assist our investigation, please come forward. You will be listened to. You will be believed and you will be supported.”

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Xu was ‘prolific’ sex offender

He said all of the sexual assault victims were Chinese women, aged between 18 and 30, while the voyeurism victims are also young females but of different ethnicities.

He added that there will be women who may not know they are victims of his crimes, as they may have been drugged by Xu.

Detectives were alerted to Xu’s crimes after he held a networking event in Greenwich in June.

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When one of the women who attended became unwell, Xu offered to let her stay, before raping her several times, the Metropolitan Police said.

They later found he had drugged her with substances known to cause drowsiness and incapacitation.

The case included six million messages on WeChat, the popular Chinese messaging app, most of them in Mandarin, which all had to be checked with the help of a translator.

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Does the government have the power to push through unpopular decisions?

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Does the government have the power to push through unpopular decisions?

Back in June, it was the U-turn on welfare that raised eyebrows. Now it’s a perceived volte-face on tax.

After weeks of suggestions that income tax may have to rise in the forthcoming budget, government sources have confirmed that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will do no such thing.

The government is flip-flopping in a febrile environment. Markets are sensitive to levels of government debt, which climbed by 17.9% between 2019 and 2024.

In the context of an ageing population, slow growth and comparatively high inflation, there are concerns that UK debt is on an unsustainable path. Markets want consolidation – for the chancellor to get a grip on tax and spending.

Ms Reeves, with her insistence on iron-clad fiscal rules, promised discipline. But flip-flopping doesn’t look like discipline. Markets are letting their thoughts be known – and their thoughts matter because the government borrows from them.

Government bond yields, the interest rate demanded on UK debt, jumped amid fears that the government is not prepared to face down opposition from its own backbenchers, from political opponents or the public.

The 30-year gilt was up 16 basis points after its worst day since July, when the chancellor was seen crying in the Commons. The 10-year gilt was up 13 points.

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Borrowing costs are already costing the country more than £100bn a year – about 10% of total spending. The more money the government is spending on interest, the less flexibility it has to spend more in other areas, like schools or hospitals.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. Pic: PA
Image:
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. Pic: PA

It appears that Ms Reeves has changed tack because official forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), whose forecasts underpin the budget, show the fiscal black hole is closer to £20bn, rather than the £30bn first feared. It means she can take less radical steps to raise money.

Markets are pleased that the chancellor is sticking to her rules, but they are viewing this move with scepticism.

Many view the OBR forecasts as overly optimistic. These are smaller tax rises to tackle a smaller problem on paper, but is what’s written on that paper credible?

Andrew Goodwin, of Oxford Economics, said: “If investors suspect the government is leaning on convenient assumptions, they may assume more trouble ahead – and yields could rise further.”

Then there’s the speculation over which taxes could rise. Markets have a clear preference towards income tax because, unlike the increase in national insurance contributions on businesses in the last budget, it’s not inflationary.

And alternative sources, such as tweaks to stamp duty or EV taxes, are less dependable revenue raisers. “Avoiding the politically sensitive income tax lever implies less willingness to tackle the structural deficit later,” said Gordon Shannon, of TwentyFour Asset Management.

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Traders are eyeing the long-term trajectory of the UK, and they are bristling at short-term fixes and tweaks that don’t address the fundamental fiscal position.

There are those in policy who are also frustrated at the approach, which has seen the government pick and drop policies to meet fiscal rules by fine margin.

It is difficult to find any political vision in it all.

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