A unanimous first-ballot HOFer?! Everything to know for Hall of Fame ballot reveal day
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
The Hall of Fame voting results from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, with several players hoping to hear their names announced as part of the class of 2025.
This year’s ballot is probably the weakest since the early 2000s — with newcomer Ichiro Suzuki the only slam-dunk candidate — especially compared to the middle of last decade, when an overstuffed ballot led to quality candidates getting knocked off after just a year or two. The nadir came in 2013, when no player was voted in from a ballot that featured 10 players who have since been elected to the Hall of Fame.
What has happened since? For starters, the PED logjam cleared — and the post-steroid era downturn in offense means fewer hitters with big numbers. Starting pitchers who reach the ballot have now spent much of their careers in an era when they pitch fewer innings and thus win fewer games.
All this has led to players like Joe Mauer, Todd Helton and Scott Rolen getting elected in recent years — players the general public might have viewed as borderline, but who were top candidates in their election years. That mindset is important to consider for the 2025 results: Voters will compare players not only to established Hall of Fame standards but also to the other players on the ballot. (Disclosure: I was a first-time voter this year.) That means while Ichiro might be the only surefire candidate, several other players have a chance to get elected.
Here’s what to watch for on Hall of Fame reveal day, remembering the general guidelines:
• A player needs 75% to get elected (not rounded up).
• A player needs 5% to remain on the ballot.
• Writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players.
• A player can remain on the ballot for 10 years.
Will Ichiro become the second unanimous selection?
It’s hard to imagine having a Hall of Fame ballot in your hands and not checking the box next to Ichiro’s name, but Mariano Rivera in 2019 has been the only unanimous selection in history. One voter didn’t vote — or forgot to vote — for Derek Jeter. Three didn’t vote for Ken Griffey Jr. And don’t even ask about some of the percentages for older players like Willie Mays and Henry Aaron.
Ichiro is polling at 100% of the public ballots revealed on the Hall of Fame tracker website. Ichiro’s 60 career WAR doesn’t scream inner-circle Hall of Famer or even a typical first-ballot selection, but he also didn’t debut in the majors until his age-27 season — and still registered over 3,000 career hits. He averaged 5.6 WAR his first three seasons with the Seattle Mariners, which doesn’t even include his best season in 2004, when he set the record for hits in a season. He won 10 Gold Gloves, was the American League MVP winner as a rookie and was one of the most iconic players of all time.
Seven of Ichiro’s peak seasons actually came in Japan. If you also add in those seven seasons, he’s at 100 career WAR — a figure only five position players who started their careers after 1969 have ever reached.
Does CC Sabathia make it on his first ballot?
It looks like it. Sabathia is polling at 93.3%, and while vote percentages revealed after the announcement almost always go down, Sabathia appears to have the cushion needed to get elected. Sabathia finished 251-161 with a 3.74 ERA, 62.3 career WAR, a Cy Young Award and a World Series title with the New York Yankees in 2009. During his five-year peak from 2007 to 2011, he ranked second to Roy Halladay in pitching WAR.
Many voters used to have a first-ballot rule, where they would only vote for a player the first time they appeared on the ballot if they were an inner-circle Hall of Famer, but that has mostly gone away. In recent years, we had Mauer in 2024 (55.2 WAR) and David Ortiz in 2022 (55.3 WAR) make it on the first ballot with less career WAR than Sabathia or Ichiro. It’s also true that Sandy Koufax would be the only starting pitcher with less WAR than Sabathia to make it on his first try — and Koufax, with his early retirement, was a special case. Sabathia is hardly an automatic selectio,n and while I voted for him, I’m a little surprised that it appears he’ll get in on his first try.
Does Billy Wagner finally make it in?
The reliever with a 2.31 career ERA is on his 10th and final BBWAA ballot. It’s been a slow climb. In his first two years in 2016 and 2017, back in those crowded ballot days, Wagner polled at just 10%. By last year, he was up to 73.8%, falling just five votes short. He’s polling at 84.8% on the public ballots, up from the 78% he was polling before the results a year ago, but that’s only a few extra votes, so it’s going to be close. (I voted for Wagner, so that will help him.)
The non-Wagner supporters point to his 10.03 ERA in the postseason (in just 11 ⅔ innings, however). There is also the reasonable argument that no team would have traded, say, Bobby Abreu or Torii Hunter or Ian Kinsler, to name three players on this year’s ballot, for Wagner. So why should Wagner make the Hall of Fame and not players of that caliber? Again, fair argument, but voters have made the decision to compare Wagner to other relievers, not other players. While voters have been too lenient in selecting relievers, Wagner’s dominance can’t be ignored. He arguably ranks behind only Rivera among modern closers — and Wagner had a 1.43 ERA his final season, so he had plenty left in the tank when he retired.
How close will Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran get?
The two center fielders continue to see their totals go up and have a chance to get elected this year. Jones, now on his eighth ballot, received 61.6% of the vote last year, and is currently polling at 73.3%. Beltran finished at 57.1% on his second ballot a year ago and is polling at 80.6% this time around. Beltran first appeared on the ballot in the wake of the Houston Astros‘ sign-stealing scandal, and his vote totals certainly suffered as a result of his involvement. With 70.1 career WAR, 435 home runs, 1,587 RBIs and great numbers in the postseason (.307/.412/.609), his case is otherwise strong. He received my vote.
The case for Jones: He was one of the best defensive center fielders of all time (he won 10 Gold Gloves) and hit 434 home runs. That’s a nice combination to sell. He also played for those Atlanta Braves teams when they were winning the division title every season, and that helps as well. Baseball-Reference credits him with 62.7 WAR — just above that 60 career total that generally marks a strong candidate. Jones fizzled out early, however, with his last good season coming when he was 29. Additionally, in the context of his era, his offensive numbers, despite the power, aren’t all that impressive: .254/.337/.486 and a 111 OPS+. Only four Hall of Fame outfielders have a lower career OPS+: Tommy McCarthy (an obscure 19th century player), Lloyd Waner (one of the worst players in the Hall) and speedsters Max Carey and Lou Brock.
I spent more time looking at Jones than any other player before deciding not to vote for him. In the end, I just don’t completely trust the defensive numbers that prop up his WAR. Baseball-Reference credits Jones with plus-235 runs saved on defense (a combination of two different metrics, Total Zone through 2002 and Defensive Runs Saved after that). That’s the most of any outfielder — and the second most of any player, behind only Brooks Robinson.
Willie Mays, as a comparison, is credited with 185 fielding runs (second highest among center fielders) — but Mays also played many more innings. On a per-inning basis, Jones comes out almost twice as good as Mays. Twice as good as Willie Mays?! Sounds skeptical. When digging into the numbers, an interesting thing is that for most of Jones’ career as a center fielder, Braves’ left fielders — first Ryan Klesko and then Chipper Jones for a couple years — had unusually low range factors. It seems likely Jones was taking all the either/or plays away from the left fielders, pushing up his putout totals. Since the Total Zone metric is an estimate, that gives him some eye-popping fielding numbers early in his career.
Jones was a truly generational center fielder, no doubt. But take a few wins off his WAR total and that puts him into the mid-50s, enough to make him fall short of the Hall of Fame to me — not to mention that there are several more worthy center fielders deserving of Hall of Fame status in my book, such as Beltran, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds and perhaps Bernie Williams (the latter three long gone off the ballot).
How will Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins fare?
The two longtime Philadelphia Phillies teammates have very different cases. Utley had an outstanding peak from 2005 to 2010 when he was one of the best players in the game, second only to Albert Pujols in WAR. Rollins won an MVP Award, was more durable and played longer — but he finished with a career OPS+ of just 95, meaning he was a below-average hitter overall. Utley easily trumps Rollins in WAR, 64.5 to 47.6, and that helps explains why he’s polling much better so far, 53.9% to 18.8%. I voted for Utley, with his peak level of performance carrying the day despite a relatively short career and fewer than 2,000 hits.
Will Andy Pettitte start getting some support? How about Mark Buehrle?
With Sabathia on the ballot and likely getting in, it’s hard to ignore this comparison:
Sabathia: 251-161, 61.8 pitching WAR, 3577 IP, 3.74 ERA, 116 ERA+
Pettitte: 256-153, 60.7 WAR, 3316 IP, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buehrle: 214-160, 60.0 WAR, 3283 IP, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+
I don’t see much difference here between the three. Yes, Sabathia had that five-year stretch where he was one of the top starters in baseball, but his five-year peak (30.4 WAR) isn’t all that higher than Pettitte’s (28.2) or Buehrle’s (27.2). That certainly helps Sabathia’s case and is part of why he’ll get in, but I voted for both Pettitte and Buehrle as well. I just didn’t see how I could vote for Sabathia and not the other two.
Pettitte was on my TV screen every October for almost two decades, a key member of five World Series championship teams; that put him over the top for me, even if he was more of a “compiler” in the Don Sutton/Jim Kaat mode of starting pitcher. In Buehrle’s case, I’m of the belief that each generation needs equal representation, and he was one of the best starting pitchers of his generation. He won fewer games than Sabathia, but that was mostly because he didn’t hang around and extend his career — he won 15 games his final season while Sabathia was 60-59 with a 4.33 ERA over his final seven seasons.
Who stays on the ballot?
Felix Hernandez was a “no” for me, but I’m glad he has already received enough votes to stay on. He won 169 games on terrible Mariners teams that never scored any runs, but while he had an outstanding peak, he was done at 30:
Hernandez through age 30: 154-109, 3.16 ERA, 126 ERA+, 51.2 WAR
Sabathia through age 30: 176-96, 3.51 ERA, 125 ERA+, 49.8 WAR
Sabathia wasn’t hugely valuable after that, but he managed to hang around and win another 75 games. King Felix won just 15 more games. He’ll at least get the chance to have his Hall of Fame case discussed — unlike Johan Santana, who got bumped off the ballot. As pitchers continue to win fewer and fewer games, maybe the standards will change to focus more on peak and less on longevity (which would certainly help Hernandez’s case).
Dustin Pedroia (on his first ballot) and David Wright (on his second) should also get enough votes to remain on, which will keep their careers in the public eye. Pedroia finished with 51.9 WAR and Wright with 49.2. Both likely had Hall of Fame careers shortened by injuries: Pedroia with the knee injury suffered on a Manny Machado hard slide; Wright with a back injury. Pedroia played just nine games after 2017; Wright just 77 after 2014.
Those are the two highest WAR totals among position players who suffered a career-ending injury (as opposed to a debilitating injury or series of injuries) and aren’t in the Hall of Fame. The best comparison might be Kirby Puckett, who suddenly lost his vision due to glaucoma and never played again. He finished with 51.1 WAR and made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Pedroia and Wright are in a unique class of almost.
Wondering about Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez? Yes, they’re still on the ballot.
A-Rod is polling around 40% on his fourth ballot and Ramirez at 36% on his ninth. It appears they’re destined to be in the same club as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.
HOUSTON — Astros starter Framber Valdez said he apologized to catcher Cesar Salazar after hitting him in the chest with a pitch Tuesday night, but the left-hander insisted it wasn’t intentional.
Valdez appeared to shake off Salazar on a 1-0 pitch with the bases loaded and Trent Grisham of the New York Yankees at the plate in the fifth inning. Salazar then urged Valdez to step off the mound, but he proceeded with the pitch, which Grisham launched to deep left field to give New York a 6-0 lead in an eventual 7-1 win.
On the second pitch to the next batter, Valdez hit Salazar in the chest with a 93 mph pitch, raising questions about whether he was upset about what happened in the Grisham at-bat and if it was intended.
Valdez said it was not.
“What happened with us, we just got crossed up,” Valdez said in Spanish through an interpreter. “I called for that pitch, I threw it and we got crossed up. We went down to the dugout and I excused myself with him and I said sorry to him and I take full responsibility for that.”
Valdez was then asked directly if he did it on purpose.
“No,” he said. “It was not intentional.”
Valdez and Salazar were talking when reporters entered the clubhouse after the game, and Valdez said they had sorted things out.
“We were able to talk through it,” he said. “We spoke after the game … at his locker and everything’s good between us. It’s just stuff that happens in baseball. But yeah, we talked through it and we’re good.”
Salazar also was asked about what happened on the pitch where he was hit.
“The stadium was loud,” he said. “I thought I pressed the button, but I pressed the wrong button. I was expecting another pitch, but it wasn’t it.”
Salazar said Valdez didn’t hit him on purpose.
“No, me and Framber we actually have a really good relationship,” he said.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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David Schoenfield
With each postseason expansion throughout MLB’s history, the value of division races has diluted. In the wild-card era, you can finish in second place — or even third or fourth — and still win the World Series.
Does that make September less exciting? There’s no doubt it brings more teams and more fans into the mix. And a big game is still a big game, even if there is slightly less tension in a Red Sox-Yankees or Mets-Phillies series than there otherwise might be if both teams already know they’re going to make the playoffs.
Thus, we’re mostly left with wild-card races and battles for seeding to occupy our time and scoreboard watching. That still offers plenty of fun, still makes September the best month on the baseball calendar, and there’s still a lot of sweating going on when your closer walks two batters in the ninth trying to protect a one-run lead. The 12 postseason slots aren’t completely locked up, so if you’re a fan of the Mets or Mariners, you can’t breathe easily just yet — not until a playoff spot is clinched and the champagne uncorked.
September is here, believe it or not. We have races to decide. Let’s rank their potential excitement level over the final month.
1. National League West race
Standings: Los Angeles Dodgers up 2 games on San Diego Padres
What’s at stake: This is the best rivalry going on in the majors right now. The teams don’t like each other, the fans don’t like each other, and there’s still that element of David trying to knock out Goliath as the Padres seek their first division title since 2006 and their first World Series title ever. The teams have met three times in the NL Division Series since 2020 — with the Dodgers winning in 2020 and 2024 and the Padres victorious in 2022 — and with another rematch possible, home-field advantage could be key.
Do the Dodgers need to win the division? No, they will still be more focused on getting the pitching staff healthy and ready for October than on getting consumed in the race to win the division. It would probably mean more to the Padres, who want to finally beat their I-5 rivals in something besides that one playoff series. On the other hand, San Diego is probably a little better equipped for a short wild-card series, as it can ride its bullpen for the two or three games.
Series to watch: Somehow, the schedule-makers thought it would be a good idea to not have the Dodgers playing the Padres in September. The Dodgers finish with a road trip to Arizona and Seattle while the Padres end at home against Milwaukee and Arizona. The Dodgers won the season series, so they own the tiebreaker.
Dodgers player to watch: Blake Snell has been a notable second-half pitcher in his career and has a 2.54 ERA since returning from the injured list in August, but he hasn’t been quite as dominant as when he gets on one of his patented hot streaks (such as the second half last year, when he had a 1.45 ERA and .130 average allowed). The Dodgers won last season despite a beat-up rotation that wasn’t even all that effective in the playoffs. But the bullpen has been nowhere near as strong this season as in 2024, so they’ll need that dominant version of Snell down the stretch and in October.
Padres player to watch: Ramon Laureano has been the team’s best hitter since he was acquired at the trade deadline, slashing .305/.354/.581 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs in 28 games. He helped keep the offense afloat in August as Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. each hit just one home run on the month and Jackson Merrill has been injured. Laureano’s production has been great, but the Padres need more power from their big two.
2. American League East
Standings: Toronto Blue Jays up 3 games on New York Yankees, 3.5 games on Boston Red Sox
What’s at stake: This has been the wildest division race all season. The Blue Jays were eight games back in late May when they fell under .500 but have now held first place since July 3. The Yankees fell as many as 6.5 games back in August before cleaning up against the Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox this past week to draw closer. The Red Sox were 41-44 on June 30, but only the Brewers have a better record since that date. The Yankees have a plus-134 run differential, whereas it’s plus-56 for the Blue Jays and plus-102 for the Red Sox, so you wonder why they’re even in this position. However, New York is 5-8 in extra-inning games (the Blue Jays are 8-4) and hasn’t played well against Toronto and Boston (5-15).
Series to watch: Blue Jays at Yankees (Friday-Sunday); Red Sox at Blue Jays (Sept. 23-25); Yankees at Red Sox (Sept. 12-14). All three season series have already been clinched: The Blue Jays over the Red Sox and Yankees and the Red Sox over the Yankees. That will leave the Yankees on the short end of any tiebreaker.
Blue Jays player to watch: Toronto acquired Shane Bieber at the deadline even though he was still completing his minor league rehab from Tommy John surgery. He has allowed three runs in two starts for the Blue Jays, striking out 15 with no walks in 11⅓ innings. It’s just two starts, but he looks like he did when he was the Cleveland ace, plus he has allowed the Jays to go to a six-man rotation. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as the Game 1 starter in the postseason.
Yankees player to watch: Aaron Judge is still probably the MVP favorite, but after missing 10 days with a flexor strain in his right elbow, he hasn’t been quite the same, hitting .241/.417/.506 with six home runs and 12 RBIs in 24 games in August. Though those are still good numbers, it seems fair to call it a slight slump by Judge’s recent historic standards — and it’s not the same level of production as before his injury. He also still hasn’t played the field, which limits the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton to pinch-hitting duties when the Yankees are on the road (manager Aaron Boone has been willing to play Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there’s less ground to cover).
Red Sox player to watch: Sixty-nine games into his career, 21-year-old rookie Roman Anthony has made it clear: He’s going to be a big star. Sure, he can cut his strikeout rate a bit, but he already has A-plus plate discipline and has the second-highest hard-hit percentage in the majors behind only Kyle Schwarber. And Anthony is also quickly learning to lift the ball, slugging six home runs in August after hitting one each in June and July.
3. National League race for No. 2 seed
Standings: Milwaukee Brewers hold No. 1 seed with 5.5-game cushion; Philadelphia Phillies up 1 game on Dodgers, 3 games on Padres
What’s at stake: The Phillies hold a comfortable lead over the Mets in the NL East, so they have about a 90% chance of winning the division, but Philadelphia is neck and neck with the pair of NL West rivals for the second-best record in the NL. Home-field advantage isn’t a must to win a World Series — we’ve seen wild-card teams take it all, such as the Rangers in 2023 when they were the fifth seed in the AL — but the Phillies have an extreme home/road split this season, going 45-23 in Philadelphia and 34-35 elsewhere. They’re hitting .275 with an .808 OPS at home, .239 with a .693 OPS on the road.
Series to watch: Phillies at Dodgers (Sept. 15-17). The Phillies finish with a six-game homestand against the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins, which looks like a favorable way to end the season.
Phillies player to watch: Kyle Schwarber, of course, and Cristopher Sanchez as he takes over the role of staff ace from the injured Zack Wheeler. But the bullpen has been the issue the past two postseasons for the Phillies, which puts Jhoan Duran on the spot as well. Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline to take over as closer, Duran has mostly done the job, but he blew one save against the Nationals, picking up the loss, and then lost another game against the Mets when he allowed four straight hits without getting an out.
4. American League race for top two seeds
Standings: Detroit Tigers hold No. 1 seed and are up 0.5 games on Blue Jays, 3.5 games on Yankees, 4 games on Red Sox and 4.5 games on Astros
What’s at stake: Bragging rights? Momentum heading into the postseason? Home-field advantage? Sure, all those things are nice, and the Tigers have a notable home/road split (44-25 versus 36-33), so securing that top seed, which they’ve held much of the way in the AL, would be the final touch on an excellent regular season. Still, if you’re manager A.J. Hinch, you’re not going to burn out your rotation in September just to get that top seed. If the Astros climb closer to the Tigers and Blue Jays, however, it will get more interesting as teams want to avoid that wild-card series if possible.
Series to watch: Tigers at Yankees (Sept. 9-11); Tigers at Red Sox (Sept. 26-28); Yankees at Astros (Tuesday-Thursday); Astros at Blue Jays (Sept. 9-11)
Tigers player to watch: The Tigers have been searching for a No. 2 starter behind Tarik Skubal all year. Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent all season and had three starts in August where he allowed five or more runs. Casey Mize has a 7.20 ERA over his past eight starts. Chris Paddack? No. Maybe it’s 41-year-old vet Charlie Morton, who has a 4.61 ERA in his five starts with Detroit, as he has mixed in three excellent outings with two bad ones (although he fanned 10 in one of the bad ones). No matter what, there are going to be a lot of bullpen games for the Tigers in the playoffs when Skubal isn’t pitching, especially since the pen was much better in August after struggling in June and July (and adding some depth at the deadline).
5. American League West
Standings: Houston Astros up 2 games on Seattle Mariners
What’s at stake: The Mariners haven’t won a division title since … hold on here, scrolling through the years on Baseball-Reference.com … that’s right, the 116-win season in 2001. The Mariners made some weird pact with the baseball gods that season, which for some reason didn’t include them making the World Series after their historic regular season but did include them not making the postseason again until 2022. That’s right: They remain the only franchise never to appear in the Fall Classic. Winning the division would increase their odds just a bit and allow them to set their rotation for the ALDS.
Series to watch: Mariners at Astros (Sept. 19-21). The season series is tied 5-5, so the winner of this series gets that crucial tiebreaker edge. Of note: The Mariners have lost five consecutive road series and are 1-6-1 (they split a four-game series) in their past eight. The Astros have managed to keep their grip on first place despite going 12-13 in July and 13-15 in August. They’ve won every full-season AL West title going back to 2017.
Astros player to watch: Yordan Alvarez returned last week after being out since early May with a hand injury. He homered in his second game back and didn’t strike out in his first five games. The Astros have even started him twice in left field, allowing them to give Jose Altuve a DH day. Bottom line: If Alvarez is producing, a below-average offense suddenly looks at least like an average — or better-than-average — offense. With Alvarez, Altuve and Carlos Correa, it’s 2019 or 2021 all over again, two seasons that ended with the Astros playing in the World Series.
Mariners player to watch: How much does Cal Raleigh have left in the tank? He’s sitting on 50 home runs but also hit .194 in July and .173 in August. He’s still doing damage with the long ball and has had 17 home runs and 36 RBIs over the two months, but he’s not carrying the offense as he did in the first half.
6. American League Wild Card
Standings: Mariners hold third wild-card spot and are up 2.5 games on Kansas City Royals, 3 games on Texas Rangers and 4 games on Cleveland Guardians
What’s at stake: By no means are the Mariners out of the AL West race against Houston, but they also haven’t played well enough to pull away in the wild-card fight, even after everyone declared them a sure-thing playoff team following the acquisitions of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the deadline. But given Seattle’s recent history of just missing the playoffs — two wins short in 2021, one short in 2023 and 2024 — Mariners fans are understandably nervous about blowing it, especially with the Royals and the Rangers refusing to go away.
Series to watch: Mariners at Royals (Sept. 16-18); Royals at Guardians (Sept. 8-10); Rangers at Guardians (Sept. 26-28). The Royals finished one game ahead of the Mariners for a wild-card spot last season, so this looks like the key series. The Mariners have one three-game series in Houston starting Sept. 19. If they can survive this current road trip — they just went 1-2 against Cleveland and now head to Tampa and Atlanta — that series looms large as well.
Royals player to watch: Is it too late to toss Bobby Witt Jr. into the Judge/Raleigh MVP debate? He’s making a late run with his outstanding all-around game and just had his best month of the season. With Vinnie Pasquantino mashing home runs and some trade acquisitions chipping in, Kansas City is peaking at the right time. The Royals have played well for two months now and have a pretty soft schedule for the final month.
Rangers player to watch: The Rangers looked out of it, and they’re going to be without Nathan Eovaldi for the rest of the season — and likely Marcus Semien as well — and Corey Seager for some period of time following an appendectomy. But they just won three series in a row. Without Eovaldi, Jack Leiter has to continue to pitch well: He has a 2.88 ERA over his past 11 starts and just tossed back-to-back excellent games.
Guardians player to watch: Cleveland is barely hanging in there, taking two of three against the Mariners as Kyle Manzardo hit big home runs in wins Friday and Saturday. He’s hitting .273/.362/.545 since July 12, giving Cleveland a much-needed power source other than Jose Ramirez.
7. National League East and NL Wild Card
Standings: Phillies up 6 games on Mets in division; Mets up 4 games on Cincinnati Reds in wild card
What’s at stake: The Mets temporarily made the division race interesting again after sweeping Philadelphia early last week but then lost three of four at home to the Marlins. That’s unacceptable if you want to win the division. The Reds continue to falter, so the Mets’ wild-card spot looks reasonably safe, though they are just .500 since May 1.
Series to watch: Mets at Phillies (Sept. 8-11); Mets at Reds (Friday-Sunday). With next week’s four-game series, the NL East remains in play even though it would take an epic New York comeback combined with a Phillies collapse for the Mets to win the division. They’ve already clinched the season series over the Phillies with a 7-2 advantage. Meanwhile, the Reds have a chance to put pressure on the Mets with a three-game series in Cincinnati before New York’s trip to Philadelphia.
Mets player to watch: Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. The Mets’ rotation has scuffled for a while, so suddenly the season rests heavily on their two prized rookie starters. McLean won his first three starts, allowing just two runs in 20⅓ innings. Tong, who led minor league starters in ERA and strikeouts, beat the Marlins in his debut Friday, striking out six in five innings with no walks while showcasing the changeup that allowed him to dominate the minors.
Reds player to watch: What’s happening with Elly De La Cruz‘s power? He hasn’t homered since July 31 and has just one in his past 58 games.
8. National League Central
Standings: Brewers up 6.5 games on Chicago Cubs
What’s at stake: This is another David vs. Goliath matchup. Milwaukee, of course, is Goliath. The Cubs won the NL Central in the COVID-shortened season of 2020 but haven’t taken a full-season division title since 2017. Given the Brewers’ lead with no signs of faltering, the odds are slim that Chicago can chase them down.
Series to watch: The two teams are done for their season series, and the Cubs took it 7-6, so at least they own the tiebreaker.
Brewers player to watch: Closer Trevor Megill landed on the IL a few days ago with a flexor strain in his elbow after blowing three saves since mid-August, so Abner Uribe takes over. If the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers, it might be because the Milwaukee pen, which has been worked hard, burns out in September, especially with the Brewers in the midst of playing 19 games in 18 days.
Cubs player to watch: Kyle Tucker slumped as he played through a hairline fracture in his right hand for two months. He finally broke out with three home runs in two games and has hit over .400 his past nine games. The Cubs’ offense was horrid in August — Pete Crow-Armstrong also struggled — and they’ll need Tucker and the rest of the lineup to rebound in September.
9. American League Central
Standings: Tigers up 9.5 games on Royals
What’s at stake: This one is all but over — though, it’s not impossible for the Royals. The Mets blew a seven-game lead in 2007 with 17 games to play. The 1995 Angels entered September with a 7.5-game lead and lost the division in a tiebreaker game. The 2009 Tigers were up seven games on Sept. 6 and blew it. The 2011 Braves had an 8.5-game lead in the wild-card race at the start of September and missed the playoffs. And during that same season, the Red Sox were leading the Yankees in the AL East and nine games up on the Rays — who would catch them on the final day of the season to win the wild card. So … you never know.
Series to watch: The Tigers and Royals are done playing each other, with Detroit winning the season series 9-4.
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