Three reasons Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner are Hall of Famers
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David Schoenfield
Welcome to the Hall of Fame, Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner. It’s a remarkable achievement to survive the gauntlet of baseball writers to get elected to Cooperstown: After all, the Baseball Hall of Fame remains the toughest to gain entry to, especially via the BBWAA path of election.
This trio stands out for their disparate backgrounds. Suzuki — let’s just call him Ichiro — grew up in Japan, of course, and was a star in the Japan Pacific League at 20 years old before becoming the first Japanese position player to play in the majors when he signed with the Seattle Mariners in 2001 at 27. A California native, Sabathia was a high school baseball and basketball star in the Bay Area, growing to a towering 6-foot-6 and throwing 95 mph. Cleveland drafted him in the first round, and he was in the majors at 20 years old. Wagner grew up in rural Virginia and played at Division III Ferrum College. He wasn’t big, but his fastball was. The Houston Astros drafted Wagner in the first round, and he debuted at age 24 before turning into one of the most dominant relief pitchers of all time.
All three are now Hall of Famers. Let’s look at three reasons each player got there.
Why Ichiro Suzuki is a Hall of Famer
Ichiro was just one vote shy of becoming the second unanimous selection (Mariano Rivera did it in 2019). In one sense, maybe it’s a little surprising he had that many votes — you could argue Ichiro is perhaps a little overrated. After all, he had 60.0 career WAR in the majors; Bobby Abreu, by comparison, was on this ballot with 60.2 career WAR and received just 26% of the vote. Ichiro’s career 107 OPS+ is now the third lowest for any Hall of Fame outfielder, ahead of only Lloyd Waner and 19th-century speedster Tommy McCarthy. So why Ichiro?
1. 3,000 career hits
OK, Ichiro was mostly a singles hitter, not hitting for much power with a career high of 15 home runs in a season, but he turned beating out infield singles and grounding base hits up the middle into an art form. He reached 200 hits his first 10 seasons with the Mariners, leading the league in seven of those years. Over the past 10 seasons, all major leaguers have combined for just 17 200-hit seasons — and the best of those was Ronald Acuna Jr.’s 217 hits in 2023, a total Ichiro exceeded five times, including a record 262 in 2004, a season he hit .372 (nobody has hit for as high an average since).
Considering he didn’t debut with the Mariners until his age-27 season, it remains remarkable that Ichiro is one of just 33 players with 3,000 hits. The other 32 averaged 994 hits through their age-26 season, with Wade Boggs’ 531 hits the lowest in the group. Of those to debut after 1930, all who are eligible for the Hall of Fame and not tainted by a betting or PED scandal were voted in on the first ballot except Craig Biggio (who took three tries to get elected). Getting to 3,000 hits made Ichiro an automatic selection.
Two keys to Ichiro’s hit total: his remarkable durability and the fact that he didn’t walk much (which is why he had a .400 OBP just once in his career). He averaged a remarkable 159 games played through his first 12 seasons, suffering just one minor stint on the injured list over that span. The sight of Ichiro constantly stretching between pitches and in the outfield is as much a part of his lasting image as him sprinting down the first-base line or racing into the corner to make another spectacular catch.
2. He was an inner-circle Hall of Fame talent
The earlier comparison to Abreu might suggest that Ichiro is a borderline Hall of Fame player. That belief, however, underestimates how transcendent Ichiro was at his peak — and that seven of his peak seasons came in Japan before he signed with the Mariners. While voters are voting on Ichiro’s accomplishments in only the major leagues, it seems fair to at least recognize that we witnessed only a portion of his greatness.
Consider this: In his first four seasons in the majors, from 2001 to 2004, Ichiro hit .339 and averaged 6.5 WAR per season. In Japan, Ichiro was a sensation right away, hitting .385 in his first full season, as good at age 20 as his final season in Japan, when he hit .387. We can thus assume he would have produced similar results in MLB from ages 20 to 26 as he did from 27 to 30. That adds up to an additional 45 WAR — on top of the 60 that Baseball-Reference credits him during his time in the majors.
How impressive would 105 career WAR be? Since the expansion era in 1961, only six position players have reached 100 career WAR: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt, Albert Pujols and Joe Morgan. This suggests Ichiro belongs on that level of inner-circle appreciation.
Much of his value came from his all-around brilliance on the bases and as a right fielder (he won 10 Gold Gloves). Baseball-Reference credits him with plus-62 runs as a baserunner (18th all time) and plus-121 runs on defense (18th among outfielders). He had two of the most efficient base-stealing seasons of all time, going 45-for-47 in 2006 and 43-for-47 in 2008, plus he led the league with 56 steals in his MVP/Rookie of the Year season of 2001. As a right fielder, Ichiro combined impeccable instincts with a strong and accurate arm. He excelled at charging the ball quickly and preventing runners from advancing, and he never seemed to make a mistake in the field — indeed, he was charged with only 38 errors in 19 seasons.
So, yes, Ichiro was overrated as a hitter. But his all-around skills and peak performance correctly put him in a class among the elite of the elite.
3. Come on, he was Ichiro — an icon
In the end, sometimes “Hall of Famer” doesn’t need an argument; it’s just a description to explain the obvious: Ichiro is a Hall of Famer, no matter what the numbers do or don’t say. Who was cooler than Ichiro wearing his shades, pointing his bat at the pitcher in his pre-pitch ritual and then tugging at his right sleeve. Early in his first month in the majors, Mariners announcer Dave Niehaus made an instant legend of Ichiro with his description of his famous throw to nail Terrence Long at third base: “I’m here to tell you that Ichiro threw something out of Star Wars down there at third base!” Ichiro was a throwback to a different era of hitting. He was a trailblazer. An absolute one of a kind. Unanimous? He certainly should have been.
Why CC Sabathia is a Hall of Famer
Sabathia finished 251-161 with a 3.74 ERA, 61.8 WAR and a Cy Young Award with Cleveland in 2007. None of those numbers necessarily scream first-ballot Hall of Famer and, indeed, only Sandy Koufax has a lower career WAR among starting pitchers elected on their first ballot. Here’s how Sabathia made it.
1. A high peak level of performance
Sabathia had a five-year run from 2007 through 2011 in which he went 95-40 with a 3.09 ERA and 30.4 WAR while averaging 240 innings per season, which now seems like a Herculean workload. He won the one Cy Young Award and finished in the top five of the voting in the other four seasons. During those seasons, only Roy Halladay had a higher WAR among pitchers — and there was a big gap from Sabathia to Cliff Lee, the No. 3 guy who had 25.0 WAR — and nobody won more games.
Along the way, Sabathia famously carried the Milwaukee Brewers into the playoffs in 2008 — their first playoff appearance at the time since 1982 — starting on three days’ rest for his final three starts, including tossing a playoff-clinching complete game on the final day of the season. The next year, he signed with the New York Yankees and led them to a World Series title, going 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in the postseason.
Sabathia fits into more of an old-school definition of a Hall of Famer: Was he the best at his position for an extended period of time? His 251 wins are the same as Bob Gibson and more than quality Hall of Famers such as Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Pedro Martinez or Don Drysdale. Those guys all felt like Hall of Famers, as did Sabathia. And he did enough around that peak — six other seasons with at least 3 WAR and appearing in 10 different postseasons — to merit selection.
2. The best of a generation
Indeed, Sabathia stands out along with Halladay (who was elected posthumously in 2019) as the bridge between the Martinez/Randy Johnson/Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine/John Smoltz group to the still-active trio of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, who came along a few years after Sabathia. Verlander has 262 wins, but Scherzer has 216 and is petering out. Kershaw has 212 and is coming off a two-win 2024 season. Zack Greinke finished with 225 wins. Even Halladay finished with just 203 wins.
Other than Andy Pettitte, who debuted six years before Sabathia and won 256 games, and Sabathia’s former teammate Bartolo Colon, who won 247, other pitchers from Sabathia’s generation didn’t last long enough for Hall consideration: Johan Santana had an amazing peak but won just 139 games; Felix Hernandez was on the ballot for the first time and received enough votes to stay on, but his last good season came at age 29; and Cliff Lee won 143 games and got injured. There are some other 200-game winners — Tim Hudson (off the ballot) and Mark Buehrle (still on) — but Sabathia was the rarity of his generation, combining both peak value and longevity.
3. Timing is everything
Sabathia’s vote total was, no doubt, helped by the general weakness of this ballot, where only Ichiro was a slam-dunk candidate. Voters want to vote players in, so in a sense, candidates are compared as much to the other players on the ballot as to Hall of Fame standards. If Sabathia was on the ballot in 2015 — a ballot that included Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina — he doesn’t get in. But his “competition” on this ballot was the aforementioned Pettitte, Buehrle and Hernandez (the only other starting pitchers even on the ballot). This isn’t to knock Sabathia’s accomplishments, but it’s a truth of Hall of Fame voting results: The ballot itself matters. It took Mussina, with 270 wins and 82.8 career WAR, six times to get elected because he faced a lot of crowded ballots. This ballot was not crowded.
Why Billy Wagner is a Hall of Famer
On his 10th and final appearance on the BBWAA ballot, Wagner finally made it in after falling five votes short last year. He debuted with just 10.5% of the vote in 2016, so why now?
1. Once again … timing is everything
As with Sabathia, a lot of it came down to timing. Wagner’s first ballot in 2016 included 11 other players who are now Hall of Famers — plus Clemens, Schilling, Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent and Gary Sheffield. Voters can vote for a maximum of 10 players, so in many cases, there simply wasn’t enough room to vote for Wagner. He was fortunate to receive more than the 5% of the vote needed just to remain on the ballot.
As the ballot logjam slowly thinned out through the years, Wagner’s vote totals increased. Rivera was elected in 2019, so it’s no surprise Wagner saw his percentage increase from 16.7% in 2019 to 31.7% in 2020, which started his momentum toward eventual election. As Wagner got closer in 2023 and then last year, the final-ballot push that players often receive — see Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez as two others who got elected on their 10th ballot — pushed him over the 75% threshold.
2. He was one of the most dominant closers of all time
Look, Rivera is on his own mountain among relievers, but Wagner has a strong case for No. 2. Yes, Wagner is now just eighth in career saves — Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel have passed him, and non-Hall of Famers Francisco Rodriguez and John Franco also have more — but only Rivera can match Wagner’s dominance.
Compare Wagner to Trevor Hoffman, who is second with 601 career saves to Wagner’s 422:
Hoffman: 2.87 ERA, 141 ERA+, 9.4 SO/9, .609 OPS allowed
Wagner: 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 11.9 SO/9, .558 OPS allowed
No, Wagner didn’t rack up as many saves, but he also retired at the top of his game: In his final season, he had a 1.43 ERA, 37 saves and 104 strikeouts in 69 innings. He still had plenty of zip left in that fastball.
To put Wagner’s career numbers in perspective, among pitchers with at least 900 innings since the live-ball era began in 1920, he ranks:
• Second in ERA behind only Rivera’s 2.21
• First in strikeouts per nine innings
• First in lowest batting average allowed (.187)
• Second in lowest OPS allowed to Rivera’s .555
That’s Wagner: arguably the hardest pitcher to hit in MLB history.
3. Voters have been kind to closers
It didn’t hurt Wagner that closers have become the easiest position in which to get elected to the Hall of Fame. Starting with the first modern Hall of Fame relievers from the 1970s, Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage, there are now eight closers in the Hall of Fame (counting Dennis Eckersley as a reliever, although he split his career between starting and relieving).
Among players who produced most of their value in the 1970s or later, the positional breakdown goes like this (leaving aside starting pitchers):
Reliever: 8 (Fingers, Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Gossage, Hoffman, Lee Smith, Rivera, Wagner)
Catcher: 7 (Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Gary Carter, Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Ted Simmons, Joe Mauer)
Right field: 7 (Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn, Vladimir Guerrero, Larry Walker, Dave Parker, Ichiro Suzuki)
First base: 6 (Tony Perez, Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Fred McGriff, Todd Helton)
Third base: 6 (Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre)
Shortstop: 6 (Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, Derek Jeter)
Second base: 5 (Joe Morgan, Rod Carew, Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio)
DH: 5 (Paul Molitor, Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines, David Ortiz)
Left field: 4 (Willie Stargell, Jim Rice, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines)
Center field: 3 (Kirby Puckett, Andre Dawson, Ken Griffey Jr.)
Hmm. There does seem to be a lesson here that you can interpret either way: There are perhaps too many relievers — or not enough players at the other positions.
Following two transfer portal windows and the NFL draft, college football fans might need Apple AirTags to track where their favorite players wound up.
This space is dedicated to those who decided to stay — commitments who boosted their teams’ College Football Playoff hopes. Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class could take up half the list: quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all back from the Nittany Lions’ CFP semifinal run.
“When we all committed here coming out of our ’22 class, that was one of our goals coming in as Penn Staters, we wanted to compete for championships, both Big Ten and obviously national championships,” Allar said. “And obviously we had a taste of that last year, and we know how close you are, so it’s just building off that and trying to make another run at it.”
Here’s a look at 13 players from 11 schools and representing five different leagues whose decisions to either forgo the NFL draft or sidestep the portal have beefed up their respective teams’ playoff chances.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan are entering their second season together and aiming to improve upon a stellar debut, which will help the Tigers contend for the SEC title. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 passing yards last year, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Even if LSU can’t win the league, Nussmeier’s return can help the Tigers earn an at-large CFP bid — especially if he makes a similar jump to his predecessors, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, who both won the Heisman Trophy in their second seasons in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier’s dad, Doug, will be nearby as the Saints’ offensive coordinator after winning a Super Bowl as the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach. With four new starters on the Tigers’ offensive line, there’s going to be an adjustment period, but if the “Nuss Bus” gets the time he needs, this should be a breakout season and his draft stock will rise with LSU’s playoff chances.
2. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Penn State has something Ohio State and Oregon don’t — a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might finally have the pieces in place to return to the top of the Big Ten and contend for a national title. Allar, who’s entering his third season as the starter, will be surrounded by NFL talent on the offensive line and in the running game, and could make a case to be Penn State’s first Heisman Trophy winner since John Cappelletti in 1973. Last season, he had 3,327 passing yards, the third most in a season in school history. With a second season under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and more options at wide receiver — plus a still-loaded tight end room — there will be no shortage of options for Allar to push the ball downfield more.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: On paper, Clemson has enough offensive firepower returning to elevate the Tigers into a deeper CFP run than their first-round exit in 2024 and they should have the Heisman-contending quarterback the program has desperately missed. Klubnik leads a Clemson offense that is No. 1 in the FBS in returning production (81%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Klubnik reestablished himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country following a down season in 2023. Last year, his 308 completions, 3,639 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns all ranked among the best seasons in program history. As he enters his third season as a starter under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s understanding of the offense and his relationship with Riley has grown, positioning Klubnik for what should be his best season with the Tigers.
4. Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen, RBs, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What their return means: The nation’s best running back duo returns intact, and they’ve got playoff experience along with familiarity and knowledge of the offense in coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s second season, all of which should boost the Nittany Lions’ hopes of winning the Big Ten and returning to the CFP. Singleton and Allen were projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. to be the Nos. 5 and 6 running backs available in the 2025 draft after becoming the first combo in Penn State history to each have at least 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Penn State ran for more than 200 yards in 10 games last season, and the Nittany Lions led all Power 4 teams and Notre Dame in rushing with 3,237 yards. Of course, it helps to have 6-foot-4, 350-pound offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane blocking.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: Sellers absolutely drew interest from other teams in November and December, but he re-signed quickly with the Gamecocks — and his commitment could be the difference between receiving or not receiving a CFP bid. The same can be said for edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who also attracted attention after 10.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. South Carolina made a playoff case with Sellers leading the offense last year, but the CFP selection committee didn’t rank the No. 15 Gamecocks high enough for inclusion. He improved throughout the season last fall, increasing his Total QBR from 52 in his first six games to 81 over the last six. This year, he’ll be working with Mike Shula, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal (twice)
What his return means: Illinois can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The importance of Illinois retaining its starting quarterback after a strong spring push from Tennessee can’t be understated. The Illini have a chance to be this year’s Indiana — a Big Ten contender with a manageable schedule that can play its way into the selection committee’s rankings with a standout quarterback and his supporting cast. After public speculation he might transfer for his final year of eligibility, Altmyer announced in December he would return to the team. He did it again in April, following the drama at Tennessee. Altmyer passed for 2,543 yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year, leading Illinois to a 9-3 regular season and a top-20 ranking in the Associated Press poll.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: K-State can win another wide-open Big 12 race and earn an automatic bid into the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Johnson never entered the transfer portal, but he attracted interest, especially after Tennessee lost Nico Iamaleava. “We got a damned wall built around him,” a K-State source told ESPN. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Expectations will be higher this year for Johnson, who threw for 2,712 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first full season as a starter last year. He also had 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the depth at wide receiver, K-State’s passing game could flourish this fall.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: A veteran offensive line that includes four returning starters from a group that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the SEC last season (20). It also means better protection for quarterback DJ Lagway, who could be one of the best in the country if he can stay healthy — and Lagway’s health is the most critical component to Florida’s success this year. According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter allowed one sack, one QB hit, six QB hurries and eight pressures — with only three penalties — in 728 snaps. The Gators again have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and Slaughter is the kind of veteran they need up front to help Lagway survive it.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: That the Buckeyes didn’t lose everyone from their national championship defense. Styles had an outstanding 2024 season with 100 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and five passes defended. His draft stock rose as the Buckeyes ascended through the CFP bracket, but he told reporters at their national championship celebration that he “wasn’t ready to leave yet.” Styles still has room to improve and grow, and his draft stock will continue to rise. He’s now in a position of leadership as one of just three returning starters on defense and the most experienced player among the rising seniors.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: The Ducks retained a 6-foot, 175-pound receiver who played a key role in advancing them to the top seed in the 2024 CFP, and they’ll need his help again — especially with the departure of Tez Johnson, who entered the NFL draft after leading Oregon with 83 receptions for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season. Stewart is Oregon’s only returning receiver who had more than 30 receptions in 2024. Stewart, who transferred to Oregon from Texas A&M, had 48 catches last season for 613 yards and tied for the team high with five receiving touchdowns. He was Oregon’s second-most targeted receiver in an offense that finished 13th nationally in passing yards. Stewart’s role will increase, and his decision to return will help the Ducks’ new starting quarterback, which could be former UCLA QB Dante Moore.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his decision means: The Longhorns have leadership, playoff experience, NFL talent and a familiar face returning to a defense that again has to replace multiple starters from the previous season. Taaffe, a rising senior who ascended from walk-on to All-American, had 71 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. His decision to return was driven in large part by the desire to win a national title at Texas and the devastation he said he felt following the loss to Ohio State. Taaffe will get another chance at the Buckeyes in the season opener.
The decision: Withdrew name from portal
What his return means: The Broncos were able to retain top talent from their 2024 CFP run, which featured one of the nation’s top defensive fronts, a huge boost for coach Spencer Danielson as he tries to own the Group of 5’s guaranteed spot as one of the nation’s five highest-ranked conference champions. Fely took visits to Miami and Cal before announcing on social media he planned to return to Boise. Fely, who spent the past three seasons at Boise State, started 28 games in the past two seasons. He had nine TFLs last year and 5.5 sacks.
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