Trump tariffs: How the UK finds itself in a strong position on US trade
What if Britain has, almost entirely by accident, navigated itself into about the best possible position it could be in, as Donald Trump embarks on a trade war with nearly all his economic partners?
I realise this might, at first, sound a little odd. After all, when the world is facing economically-destructive measures (blanket tariffs are invariably value-destructive, in the short run at least) it’s hard to see much in the way of victories. Moreover, when it comes to Donald Trump, no one, including his own cabinet and staff, can quite predict what will happen next. Consider the roller-coaster over tariffs in the past few days alone.
Even so, the fact remains that of all the countries and regions in the world, Britain seems much less likely than most to face the kind of peremptory tariffs the president is so keen on.
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To see why, it helps to remember that the one thing Mr Trump hates above all else is trade deficits – when you import more goods (and it seems to be goods he mostly cares about) from another country than you send there in return.
America has an enormous trade deficit with China and with Mexico too, not to mention a smaller but not insubstantial deficit with Canada. When the president talks about the reasons for his tariffs he sometimes mentions illegal fentanyl imports, but, even more often, he references the size of the trade deficits. He wants America to make more stuff domestically and suck in less stuff from overseas.
We could have a long conversation (and I suspect we probably will have a long conversation in the coming months) about the extent to which deficits are, per se, a bad thing. But in the short run let’s focus on the UK and its strengths in this game.
First, since the UK is no longer part of the European Union, it will not automatically face the same trade terms as its neighbours on the continent. If the US imposes tariffs on the EU, Britain will not necessarily face them.
Second, if there is one country in the world with even bigger trade deficits than the US, it’s Britain. This country has deindustrialised even quicker than America, with the upshot that unlike the EU or Canada or Mexico, Britain is one of the few countries in the world to import more goods from America than America imports from it.
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How will Trump’s tariffs affect Brits?
Footnote: that last point actually depends on whose numbers you’re looking at. Look at America’s figures and it has a trade surplus with the UK. Look at Britain’s figures and America has a trade deficit with us. But either way, both are very small. The numbers are essentially balanced.
Third, in recent months, the new Labour government has begun to improve its relationship with China. Chancellor Rachel Reeves went on a financial diplomacy mission to Beijing last month. And unlike nearly every other industrialised country in the developed world, Britain has not imposed tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
Many diplomats have raised their eyebrows about this, but in the event that America wanted to do a deal with Britain, this is precisely the kind of thing the government could quickly reverse: “Oh alright then – in return for this trade deal, we’re willing to impose those tariffs on China – the ones everyone else has already introduced.”
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The funny thing about these three strengths is that, first off, up until recently many would have seen each of them – Brexit, our deindustrialisation and our cosying up to China – as weaknesses rather than strengths. They certainly weren’t part of any grand strategic plan.
Even so, the UK nonetheless finds itself in an unexpectedly propitious position when it comes to negotiating with the US. It has a better chance than most nations to act as a diplomatic bridge between America and Europe. Its chances of sealing that much-vaunted trade deal with the US have improved rather than deteriorated. Indeed, I’m told that leading members of the administration believe a trade deal with the UK could be sealed in a matter of months.
Whether that actually eventuates remains to be seen. After all, if there’s one thing you can’t predict when it comes to Donald Trump it’s, well, anything.
Negotiations to reset the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU are going “to the wire”, a Cabinet Office minister has said.
“There is no final deal as yet. We are in the very final hours,” the UK’s lead negotiator Nick Thomas-Symonds told Sky’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.
On the possibility of a youth mobility scheme with the EU, he insisted “nothing is agreed until everything is”.
“We would be open to a smart, controlled youth mobility scheme,” he said. “But I should set out, we will not return to freedom of movement.”
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The government is set to host EU leaders in London on Monday.
Put to the minister that the government could not guarantee there will be a deal by tomorrow afternoon, Mr Thomas-Symonds said: “Nobody can guarantee anything when you have two parties in a negotiation.”
But the minister said he remained “confident” a deal could be reached “that makes our borders more secure, is good for jobs and growth, and brings people’s household bills down”.
“That is what is in our national interest and that’s what we will continue to do over these final hours,” he said.
“We have certainly been taking what I have called a ruthlessly pragmatic approach.”
On agricultural products, food and drink, Mr Thomas-Symonds said supermarkets were crying out for a deal because the status quo “isn’t working”, with “lorries stuck for 16 hours and food rotting” and producers and farmers unable to export goods because of the amount of “red tape”.
Asked how much people could expect to save on shopping as a result of the deal the government was hoping to negotiate, the minister was unable to give a figure.
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On the issue of fishing, asked if a deal would mean allowing French boats into British waters, the minister said the Brexit deal which reduced EU fishing in UK waters by a quarter over five years comes to an end next year.
He said the objectives now included “an overall deal in the interest of our fishers, easier access to markets to sell our fish and looking after our oceans”.
Turning to borders, the minister was asked if people would be able to move through queues at airports faster.
Again, he could not give a definitive answer, but said it was “certainly something we have been pushing with the EU… we want British people who are going on holiday to be able to go and enjoy their holiday, and not be stuck in queues”.
PM opens door to EU youth mobility scheme
A deal granting the UK access to a major EU defence fund could be on the table, according to reports – and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has appeared to signal a youth mobility deal could be possible, telling The Times that while freedom of movement is a “red line”, youth mobility does not come under this.
The European Commission has proposed opening negotiations with the UK on an agreement to facilitate youth mobility between the EU and the UK. The scheme would allow both UK and EU citizens aged between 18 and 30 years old to stay for up to four years in a country of their choosing.
Earlier this month, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told Phillips a youth mobility scheme was not the approach the government wanted to take to bring net migration down.
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Lack of UK training ‘big driver of net migration’
When this was put to him, Mr Thomas-Symonds insisted any deal on a youth mobility scheme with Europe will have to be “smart” and “controlled” and will be “consistent” with the government’s immigration policy.
Asked what the government had got in return for a youth mobility scheme – now there had been a change in approach – the minister said: “It is about an overall balanced package that works for Britain. The government is 100% behind the objective of getting net migration down.”
Phillips said more than a million young people came to the country between 2004 and 2015. “If there isn’t a cap – that’s what we are talking about,” he said.
The minister insisted such a scheme would be “controlled” – but refused to say whether there would be a cap.
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‘It’s going to be a bad deal’
Shadow cabinet office minister Alex Burghart told Phillips an uncapped youth mobility scheme with the EU would lead to “much higher immigration”, adding: “It sounds very much as though it’s going to be a bad deal.”
Asked if the Conservatives would scrap any EU deal, he said: “It depends what the deal is, Trevor. And we still, even at this late stage, we don’t know.
“The government can’t tell us whether everyone will be able to come. They can’t tell us how old the young person is. They can’t tell us what benefits they would get.
“So I think when people hear about a youth mobility scheme, they think about an 18-year-old coming over working at a bar. But actually we may well be looking at a scheme which allows 30-year-olds to come over and have access to the NHS on day one, to claim benefits on day one, to bring their extended families.”
He added: “So there are obviously very considerable disadvantages to the UK if this deal is done in the wrong way.”
Jose Manuel Barroso, former EU Commission president, told Phillips it “makes sense” for a stronger relationship to exist between the European Union and the UK, adding: “We are stronger together.”
He said he understood fishing and youth mobility are the key sticking points for a UK-EU deal.
“Frankly, what is at stake… is much more important than those specific issues,” he said.
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