Treasury launches inquiry into leak of growth forecasts

Published

3 months ago

February 12, 2025

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A leak inquiry will take place following reports that economic growth forecasts have been reduced by the government’s financial watchdog.

Bloomberg reported that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had reduced its growth forecasts in data sent to Chancellor Rachel Reeves last week.

Reduced growth could force the government to cut further spending or increase more taxes.

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The next forecast is set to be published in March – with the process supposed to remain confidential until that point.

The inquiry was confirmed by James Bowler, the most senior civil servant in the Treasury.

He told the House of Commons Treasury Committee: “We will undertake an inquiry, and I’m happy to communicate the outcome of that.”

The government’s attempts to grow the UK economy have proved difficult since the election last year, and businesses have complained about measures introduced in Ms Reeves’s first budget.

Part of Labour’s plan involves increasing house building and development, although these plans were not included in the forecasts for last October’s budget.

Mr Bowler sought to play down the fact that a leak inquiry was happening meant that what was reported by Bloomberg was true.

Asked by committee chair Meg Hillier about the inquiry, the civil servant appeared to indicate about 50 people in the Treasury would have been able to see the forecasts.

He said an investigation into OBR officials would likely also happen, although the body is independent of government.

Downing Street has tried to remain bullish about the economic situation.

A Number 10 spokesperson said: “In recent weeks and months, the [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] and the [International Monetary Fund] have upgraded our growth forecast over the next three years.”

They added: “The government remains relentlessly focused on growth as the only way of sustainably raising living standards and delivering the investment that we need in our public services.”

Both bodies mentioned slightly increased their growth forecasts, but they still remain below 2%.

Last week, the Bank of England halved its growth expectations for the UK – saying it would only increase by 0.75% in 2025, before increasing to 1.5% for the next two years.

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The OBR’s forecasts have a more direct impact, as the Treasury use them to measure if they are meeting their fiscal rules.

GDP figures are set to be published tomorrow, which will show how the UK economy was performing to the end of 2024.

Politics

Taiwan lawmaker calls for Bitcoin reserve at national conference

Published

5 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Taiwan lawmaker calls for Bitcoin reserve at national conference

Taiwanese lawmaker Ko Ju-Chun has called on the government to consider adding Bitcoin to its national reserves, suggesting it could serve as a hedge against global economic uncertainty.

Ko, a legislator at-large in Taiwan’s legislative body, the Legislative Yuan, took to X on Friday to report that he had advocated Bitcoin (BTC) investment by the Taiwanese government at the National Conference on May 9.

In his remarks, Ko cited Bitcoin’s potential to become a hedge amid global economic risks and urged Taiwan to recognize the cryptocurrency alongside gold and foreign exchange reserves to boost its financial resilience.

Ko’s announcement came shortly after the legislator held talks with Samson Mow, who advocates for Bitcoin adoption by states like El Salvador at his BTC tech firm Jan3.

Taiwan is an export-oriented economy

Ko highlighted that Taiwan is an export-driven economy that has experienced significant fluctuations in its national currency, the New Taiwan dollar, amid global inflation and intensifying geopolitical risks.

“We currently have a gold reserve of 423 metric tons, and our foreign exchange reserves amount to $577 billion, including investments in US Treasury bonds,” the lawmaker stated.

In a scenario of more intense currency volatility or potential regional conflicts, Taiwan may “very likely be unable to ensure the security and liquidity,” Ko continued, adding that Bitcoin could be a great addition to Taiwan’s reserves for several reasons.

Law, Investments, Taiwan, Samson Mow, Policy, Bitcoin Reserve — *Ko Ju-Chun advocated for the adoption of Bitcoin by the Taiwanese government before the Legislative Yuan. Source: Ko Ju-Chun*

“Bitcoin has been operating for over 15 years. It has a fixed total supply, is decentralized, and is resistant to censorship. Many countries are focusing on its hedging attributes. At the same time, in intense situations, it may not face the risk of embargo,” he said.

Bitcoin is not the only solution

Referring to many global initiatives considering Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset, Ko stressed that he’s not advocating for Bitcoin as the “only solution” to rising economic challenges.

Instead, the legislator suggested adding a “small proportion of Bitcoin” into the diversified assets as tools for sovereign asset allocation and risk hedging, and backup capacity of Taiwan’s financial system.

He previously suggested that Taiwan could allocate a maximum of 5% of its $50 billion reserve to Bitcoin in an X post on May 6.

“When exchange rate risk and regional uncertainty increase, it is time to introduce new tools to construct a more flexible financial strategy framework,” Ko said, adding:

“As former Dean Chen Chong said, Bitcoin is the gun of the digital era. It may also be the gold of the digital era, the silver of the digital era. Or it could be gunpowder. A wise nation will not let weapons be in others’ hands.”

The news comes as Taiwan is emerging as a crypto-friendly jurisdiction, with the Financial Supervisory Commission pushing institutional trials of crypto custody services in late 2024.

Mainland China continues to maintain its hostile stance on cryptocurrency after imposing a ban on multiple crypto activities, including mining, in 2021.

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Politics

Germany seizes $38M in crypto from Bybit hack-linked eXch exchange

Published

9 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Germany seizes M in crypto from Bybit hack-linked eXch exchange

German law enforcement seized 34 million euros ($38 million) in cryptocurrency from eXch, a cryptocurrency platform allegedly used to launder funds stolen after Bybit’s record-breaking $1.4 billion hack.

The seizure, announced on May 9 by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and Frankfurt’s main prosecutor’s office, involved multiple crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) and Dash (DASH). The move marks the third-largest crypto confiscation in the BKA’s history.

The authorities also seized eXch’s German server infrastructure with over eight terabytes of data and shut down the platform, the announcement added.

eXch exchanged crypto without AML

In the statement, the BKA described eXch as a “swapping” service that allowed users to exchange various crypto assets without implementing Anti-Money Laundering (AML) measures.

The platform had operated since 2014 and reportedly facilitated about $1.9 billion in crypto transfers, some of which were believed to be of “criminal origin,” including assets laundered during the Bybit hack.

Germany seizes $38M in crypto from Bybit hack-linked eXch exchange — *Example of flow of Bybit exploit funds moving through eXch and bridging back and forth between Ether and Bitcoin. Source: TRM Labs*

“Among other things, a portion of the $1.5 billion stolen from the Bybit crypto exchange, which was hacked on Feb. 21, 2025, is said to have been exchanged via eXch,” the authorities wrote.

Multisig, FixedFloat among laundering cases

According to a post by crypto sleuth ZachXBT, eXch was also involved in laundering millions of funds from other crypto thefts and exploits, including Multisig, FixedFloat and the $243 million Genesis creditor theft.

Those were in addition to “countless phishing drainer services over the past few years with refusal to block addresses and freeze orders,” ZachXBT said.

Germany, AML, Crimes, Hacks, Policy, Bybit — *Source: ZachXBT*

ZachXBT was among the first security analysts to report on eXch’s links to laundering $35 million of crypto assets stolen from Bybit soon after the hack was confirmed.

“Lazarus Group transferred 5K ETH from the Bybit Hack to a new address and began laundering funds via eXch (a centralized mixer) and bridging funds to Bitcoin via Chainflip,” ZachXBT wrote in a Telegram post on Feb. 22.

eXch announced termination of services by May 1

After initially denying involvement in laundering funds from the Bybit hack, eXch eventually announced it would cease operations by May 1 in a Bitcoin Talk post published in mid-April.

“Even though we have been able to operate despite some failed attempts to shut down our infrastructure […], we don’t see any point in operating in a hostile environment where we are the target of SIGINT [Signals Intelligence] simply because some people misinterpret our goals,” it wrote.

Addressing the seizure, senior public prosecutor Benjamin Krause stressed the importance of action against “quick and anonymous opportunities for money laundering for any amount.”

“Crypto swapping is an essential component of the underground economy, used to conceal incriminated funds from illegal activities such as hacking or trading in stolen payment card data, thus making them available to perpetrators,” he said.

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Politics

Red Wall MPs should focus on two-child benefit cap rather than winter fuel, Harriet Harman says

Published

11 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Red Wall MPs should focus on two-child benefit cap rather than winter fuel, Harriet Harman says

Red Wall MPs should push for the two-child benefit cap to be lifted rather than a reversal of the winter fuel payment policy, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.

Baroness Harman, the former Labour Party chair, told Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast that this would hand the group a “progressive win” rather than simply “protesting and annoying Sir Keir Starmer” over winter fuel.

Earlier this week, a number of MPs in the Red Wall – Labour’s traditional heartlands in the north of England – reposted a statement on social media in which they said the leadership’s response to the local elections had “fallen on deaf ears”.

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They singled out the cut to the winter fuel allowance as an issue that was raised on the doorstep and urged the government to rethink the policy, arguing doing so “isn’t weak, it takes us to a position of strength”.

Labour’s decision to means test the policy has snatched the benefit away from millions of pensioners.

But Baroness Harman said a better target for the group could be an overhaul of George Osborne’s two-child benefit cap.

The cap, announced in 2015 as part of Lord David Cameron’s austerity measures, means while parents can claim child tax credit or Universal Credit payments for their first and second child, they can’t make claims for any further children they have.

Labour faced pressure to remove the cap in the early months of government, with ministers suggesting in February that they were considering relaxing the limit.

Baroness Harman told Beth Rigby that this could be a sensible pressure point for Red Wall MPs to target.

She said: “It could be that they have a kind of progressive win, and it might not be a bad thing to do in the context of an overall strategy on child poverty.

“Let’s see whether instead of just protesting and annoying Sir Keir Starmer, they can build a bridge to a new progressive set of policies.”

Jo White, the Labour MP for Bassetlaw and a member of the Red Wall group, suggested that her party’s “connection” to a core group of voters “died” with the decision to means test the winter fuel payment for pensioners.

“We need to reset the government,” she told Electoral Dysfunction. “The biggest way to do that is by tackling issues such as winter fuel payments.

“I think we should raise the thresholds so that people perhaps who are paying a higher level of tax are the only people who are exempt from getting it.”

A group of MPs in the Red Wall, thought to number about 40, met on Tuesday night following the fallout of local election results in England, which saw Labour lose the Runcorn by-election and control of Doncaster Council to Reform UK.

Following the results, Sir Keir said “we must deliver that change even more quickly – we must go even further”.

Some Labour MPs believe it amounted to ignoring voters’ concerns.

One of the MPs who was present at the meeting told Sky News there was “lots of anger at the government’s response to the results”.

“People acknowledged the winter fuel allowance was the main issue for us on the doorstep,” they said.

“There is a lack of vision from this government.”

Another added: “Everyone was furious.”

Downing Street has ruled out a U-turn on means testing the winter fuel payment, following newspaper reports earlier this week that one might be on the cards.