
The Arch Manning takeover, Carson Beck in Miami: Everything we’re excited for in 2025
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5 months agoon
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adminEven though it hasn’t been a full month since Ohio State was crowned national champion after defeating Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, we aren’t waiting to look ahead to the 2025 season.
Arch Manning will finally take over at Texas and be put to the test against Ohio State in Week 1. John Mateer put up wild numbers at Washington State, but now he’ll be competing for Oklahoma in the SEC, where he’ll face a tougher challenge. And Carson Beck returns for another college football season, this time for the Miami Hurricanes.
Our reporters break down the games they can’t wait to watch, the teams they think will dominate and the players and newcomers they’re going to be tracking.
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Early games to watch | Players who will make an impact
Teams that will dominate | Newcomers to keep tabs on
Who will surprise us? | Late-season games to watch
1. What early-season game are you most excited for?
Adam Rittenberg: Texas at Ohio State, Aug. 30. Arch Manning begins his first season as Texas‘ QB1 against the defending national champions on the road. I’m sure there will be zero overreactions after this one. But Texas has a real opportunity for a signature road win right away, as Ohio State will have its own new quarterback as well as new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The teams that met in the CFP semifinal at AT&T Stadium will look quite different. Ohio State coach Ryan Day has lost only one regular-season nonconference game, to Oregon in 2021, but Texas could establish itself as possibly the team to beat in the SEC with a win in Columbus.
David Hale: Week 1 includes a terrific showdown between Clemson and LSU, teams that could be ranked in the preseason top 10, have playoff — maybe national title — expectations and and want a win to set the early-season narrative. Clemson has opened three of the past four seasons with a loss, including a blowout against Georgia in 2024. But this is supposed to be a different Tigers team — more mature offensively, more aggressive on defense under new coordinator Tom Allen. LSU‘s situation is perhaps worse. The Bayou Bengals haven’t won an opener since 2019, and if it doesn’t happen this time, it’s entirely possible Brian Kelly’s head will explode. Or he’ll spend all year on the hot seat. Perhaps both. But LSU has done well in the portal, and this should be Kelly’s best team in Baton Rouge, so there’s ample reason to assume the winner of the Week 1 showdown will be in the title hunt.
Andrea Adelson: Can I pick two? On the same weekend? Because my ultimate dream road trip in Week 1 begins in Tallahassee for the Alabama-Florida State game, then a seven-hour drive south to Miami to watch Notre Dame take on the Hurricanes. Both these games have fairly important significance. Though Alabama slipped a little and Florida State slipped a lot in 2024, potentially taking some luster away from this game, this is a huge one for both programs. Was a 9-4 mark in Year 1 under Kalen DeBoer a sign that he might not be the long-term answer, or was it just a byproduct of installing his system and culture at a place Nick Saban made into the model college program? Was 2-10 a sign Florida State and Mike Norvell cannot sustain a high level of success? Will a win be a much needed reset for either school? As for Notre Dame–Miami, college football is always better when these teams play well, and they will enter 2025 once again with CFP aspirations. The game is too early to be season defining, but knee-jerk assessments will certainly be made after this one.
Mark Schlabach: Michigan and Oklahoma have combined to win nearly 2,000 games and 17 national championships in their storied histories. It’s amazing that the Wolverines and Sooners have played exactly one time: OU defeated Michigan 14-6 in the 1976 Orange Bowl to capture their fifth national title under coach Barry Switzer. Finally, that will change when Michigan travels to Oklahoma on Sept. 6. The home-and-home series was announced more than a decade ago; the Sooners will travel to the Big House in 2026. Besides the obvious history, it’s going to be a big nonconference game for both programs, especially the Sooners. OU coach Brent Venables is 22-17 in three seasons after a 6-7 finish in 2024, his second losing campaign. Venables is taking over defensive playcalling next season, and he might need to turn things around in the SEC to save his job. It’s going to be the first big test for new Sooners quarterback John Mateer, who had nearly 4,000 yards of offense at Washington State last season. It won’t hurt that Cougars offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is in Norman with him.
Chris Low: The SEC opener for both teams, Georgia and Tennessee square off Sept. 13 in Knoxville in what’s likely to be a top-10 matchup and a game that could go a long way toward shaping both teams’ playoff hopes. And, yes, that early in the season. After a bye, Georgia plays Alabama two weeks later on Sept. 27. For Tennessee and Josh Heupel, it’s a chance to break through against the Bulldogs. Heupel has beaten Alabama twice and Florida twice since taking the job in 2021, but he’s 0-4 against Georgia, and none of the games have been particularly close. It’s also a key game for the two quarterbacks. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton will be making his SEC debut as a starter after filling in for Carson Beck in the playoff last season, and Tennessee needs Nico Iamaleava to become more of a downfield passing threat in his second year as a starter. This will be the earliest these teams have met in a season since 1995 (Sept. 9) when Kirby Smart was a freshman defensive back for the Bulldogs. The Vols won 30-27 on a field goal in the final seconds. Smart never beat Tennessee as a player but has won eight straight in the series as coach.
Jake Trotter: The first marquee Big Ten conference showdown is Sept. 27 when Oregon travels to Penn State in a rematch of last season’s Big Ten championship game. Both teams will enter next season with the expectation of making it back to the CFP (the Nittany Lions are No. 3 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early rankings, while the Ducks are No. 6). Penn State and coach James Franklin especially have much riding on the 2025 season. The Nittany Lions return quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen; Franklin also hired defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from rival Ohio State. At Beaver Stadium, this will be a prime opportunity for the loaded Nittany Lions to make a statement against a retooling Oregon attack that must replace several key players from last season’s squad, including Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Paolo Uggetti: There are plenty of blockbusters on the schedule in the early part of the season. I, however, will be selfishly excited to watch one Week 2 matchup close to home when USC hosts Georgia Southern, a team coached by none other than former Trojans head coach Clay Helton. The storyline of Helton’s return is compelling in its own right given he gave the program its last marquee win (the 2017 Rose Bowl) before being eventually ushered out to make room for Lincoln Riley, who is coming off a disappointing 7-6 campaign. The Eagles will be the less talented team come Sept. 6, but you can bet everything that Helton will have them ready to give USC a tough game. An upset here would only fuel any comparisons, fair or unfair, between the two coaches.
Kyle Bonagura: It will always feel weird for the Apple Cup to be played early in the season, but after last season’s neutral-site version in Seattle, it will be good for the rivalry to be back on campus when Washington State hosts Washington on Sept. 20. Washington will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing debut season under Jedd Fisch — which featured a loss to WSU — while the Cougars are set to begin the Jimmy Rogers era, after Jake Dickert left for Wake Forest.
2. Which players will be making the biggest impact?
Rittenberg: The 2024 Heisman race came down to a two-way player from Colorado and a running back from Boise State. Could it be the start of a pivot away from quarterbacks? Although Manning, Allar, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and other QBs will garner attention, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith might be the most talked-about player entering his sophomore season after putting up huge numbers last fall (1,315 receiving yards, 76 receptions, 15 touchdowns). Smith and his Buckeyes teammate, safety Caleb Downs, could make huge impacts. Other non-quarterbacks who interest me are Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, Penn State running back Singleton, Texas linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and Illinois outside linebacker Gabe Jacas.
Adelson: I think the most intriguing player could end up being Carson Beck. At this time last year, nobody could have guessed he would be back in college for another year … at Miami, not Georgia. He is coming off elbow surgery, which already means there will be questions about his health — on top of questions about whether he can be the elite quarterback many projected headed into 2024. His wide receivers at Georgia certainly did him no favors, and he will have a much more reliable — and speedy — group at Miami. It might not be possible to replicate what Cam Ward did as a transfer from Washington State, but Beck will have a top-notch offensive line, terrific running backs and tight ends and a solid group of receivers to work with. If he gets healthy and can put it all together, this could be the season many envisioned he would have in 2024.
Schlabach: Manning, Allar and Klubnik will garner a lot of preseason attention for the Heisman Trophy, but I’m not sure there’s a more accomplished passer in the FBS than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. In his first season as a starter, he threw for 4,052 yards with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He completed 64.2% of his attempts. The Tigers are bringing back leading receiver Aaron Anderson and added Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky) from the transfer portal. It seems like a make-or-break season for Tigers coach Brian Kelly, after LSU spent a lot of money in the portal to shore up its defense. Nussmeier has the size, arm strength and pedigree to be the best quarterback in the country in 2025.
Low: Remember when Clemson was winning and playing for national championships from 2015 to 2019? The common denominator was a cadre of talented defensive linemen. The Tigers had three defensive linemen selected in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft and a first-rounder and second-rounder in the 2016 draft. New defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who comes over from Penn State, inherits a group of linemen in 2025 that should help return Clemson’s defense to one of the nation’s best units. End T.J. Parker and tackle Peter Woods are both future pros. Parker had 19.5 tackles for loss and six forced fumbles. Woods, at 6-3 and 315-pounds, has shown flashes of dominance, but look for him to have a breakout season in Allen’s attacking system. The key offseason acquisition was Purdue transfer Will Heldt at end. He had 16 quarterback pressures a year ago and will team with Parker to give Clemson a dynamic pass-rushing combo. Redshirt sophomore tackle Stephiylan Green has his best football ahead of him, and getting back sixth-year senior tackle DeMonte Capehart was a coup for the Tigers, especially if he can stay healthy. A lot of eyes will also be on five-star freshman Amare Adams.
Trotter: Ohio State is losing the bulk of its national championship team to the NFL. And yet, the Buckeyes bring back arguably the top returning offensive and defensive players in college football in Smith and Downs. With so many new faces around them, they’ll have more on their shoulders in 2025. Yet both have the pedigrees to propel the Buckeyes into a national title defense. Keep an eye on the Big 12 quarterbacks, too. The Big Ten and SEC passing stars might overshadow the likes of Arizona State‘s Sam Leavitt, BYU‘s Jake Retzlaff, Iowa State‘s Rocco Becht, Kansas State‘s Avery Johnson and Kansas‘ Jalon Daniels. But any of those five have the talent and experience to quarterback their teams to a Big 12 title and, ultimately, into the playoff.
Uggetti: Oregon’s talent across the board will undoubtedly put the Ducks in the mix again for more than just a College Football Playoff spot. But with Dillon Gabriel departing, a lot will fall on the shoulders of quarterback Dante Moore. He transferred from UCLA last offseason and was able to spend a season watching Gabriel, learning the Ducks’ offense from offensive coordinator Will Stein. Though this will be his third season in college football, Moore will turn 20 in March, and as his freshman season with the Bruins showed, he has a lot of potential. The good news: Oregon’s track record for picking and developing quarterbacks in recent years is one of the best in the country, and Moore could be the program’s next success story. But to return to the playoff stage and end the season on a better note, he’ll need to be.
3. Which teams are going to dominate 2025?
Adelson: Given the returning rosters of Penn State and Texas, it is hard to pick against them. But there is a caveat there, of course. Those teams have to prove they can win the most important games on their schedule when it matters most. We all know how badly the Nittany Lions have struggled against AP top-10 teams — James Franklin is 4-20 against them as Penn State head coach — and this could be the year they put that to rest. From the Way-Too-Early top 25, Penn State has only two matches against top-10 teams — Oregon and Ohio State, and the Ducks are at home. As for Texas, there is so much hype surrounding QB Arch Manning, perhaps he has what it takes to turn close losses into wins when it matters most. The Longhorns have been right there the past two seasons, coming up heartbreakingly short in the CFP. They certainly will have the talent to break through.
Low: Let’s start with Clemson. This should be Dabo Swinney’s best team since his last national title in 2018. QB Cade Klubnik is back for his fourth season. He has his top receivers returning. The defensive line should be much improved under the new coordinator, and most of the Tigers’ toughest games are at home. And in the Big Ten, just maybe this is Franklin’s year at Penn State.
Rittenberg: Clemson won the ACC last fall and returned to the CFP without anywhere near one of its better teams under Swinney. The exciting thing is that in 2025 the Tigers should be even better and more reflective of the teams that Swinney led to national championships. They have one of the nation’s most experienced quarterbacks in Klubnik, who will operate under coordinator Garrett Riley for the third straight year. Defensive line and wide receiver, two positions where Clemson has historically thrived under Swinney, are once again projected strengths. Arizona State also has a chance to build on its Big 12 title and CFP appearance, especially with Leavitt back in the fold.
Schlabach: Given that so many CFP contenders are turning to new starting quarterbacks in 2025, including Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Georgia and Oregon, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious choice for No. 1. I went with the Buckeyes after they won a national championship in my Way-Too-Early rankings, but then offensive coordinator Chip Kelly left for the Las Vegas Raiders and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles departed for Penn State. I don’t think any of the aforementioned contenders are going to fall off the cliff, because they’ve recruited too well over the past few seasons. I agree that Penn State and Clemson have the most returning talent, at least on paper, and they could conceivably be ranked Nos. 1 and 2. I like Clemson’s path in the ACC, and for all the heat Franklin has taken at Penn State, he did a very nice job last season.
Trotter: This has to finally be Penn State’s year, right? Michigan and Ohio State could be starting freshmen quarterbacks. The Nittany Lions get Oregon at home in September, when the Ducks will be working in a new quarterback (presumably Moore, who began his career at UCLA). And Penn State doesn’t face USC, Washington or Illinois (No. 13 in the Way-Too-Early rankings) during the regular season, either. The Nittany Lions boast the most experienced passer in the Big Ten in Allar, perhaps the best running back combo in the country in Singleton and Allen and a defensive coordinator in Knowles, who just helped engineer the best defense in college football at Ohio State. Franklin will never have a better shot of winning the Big Ten, and, potentially, capturing Penn State’s first national championship in almost four decades.
Uggetti: Even though on paper the returning talent is undeniable, count me among the skeptics not exactly rushing to buy a ticket on the Penn State hype train. Maybe I’m going to be late to the party, but I’m a “believe it when I see it” when it comes to Franklin and the Nittany Lions, given their inability to get over the hump in the past. I could be proven very wrong by the end of the season, but it’s February! I’m not ready to declare any team dominant, let along a title favorite, just yet.
4. Which newcomers should we keep tabs on?
Hale: There’s a strong argument that the most fun player in college football last season was Mateer. At Washington State, Mateer was a swashbuckling showman of a QB, throwing for 29 touchdowns, rushing for 15 more and racking up just shy of 4,000 yards of total offense. Even if his supporting cast was lackluster, Mateer ensured the Cougars were frisky in every game. Now he arrives at Oklahoma — along with his OC, Ben Arbuckle, from Washington State — ready to make an impact on the SEC. The Sooners are in “do or die” mode, which suits Mateer, who has a knack for playing that way all the time anyway. It’s getting ahead of ourselves to make big comparisons such as, say, Johnny Manziel, but from a style-of-play standpoint, Mateer ought to be one of the most entertaining QBs to come through the SEC in a while.
Adelson: Is it a coincidence Michigan started to flip the script on its season after prized 2025 recruit Bryce Underwood flipped his commitment from LSU to the Wolverines in November? Less than two weeks later, they beat Ohio State and then beat Alabama in the bowl game to ride a wave of optimism headed into the offseason. Underwood is just a part of that. The highest-rated signee in school history, Underwood fills an area of immediate need at quarterback — the position where Michigan had the biggest drop off from its 2024 national championship season. The Wolverines simply had no one who could command the offense the way J.J. McCarthy did, but in Underwood they have a player with all the physical tools to be able to play right away. He enrolled early and enters the spring in a quarterback competition with Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene. No matter what happens from there, Underwood will command plenty of attention once 2025 begins.
Low: As redshirt freshman Julian Sayin presumably steps in as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, he’s going to have the luxury of throwing to the best player in the country, Smith, and two other really talented receivers in Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss. But don’t sleep on Purdue transfer tight end Max Klare, who could end up being Sayin’s best friend on key downs. All Klare does is get open and catch passes. He had 51 receptions for 685 yards and four touchdowns last season at Purdue, and 33 of his catches went for first downs. Brian Hartline takes over as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator next season, and you can bet that Klare will be a major part of the Buckeyes’ game plan.
Rittenberg: Keelon Russell first appeared on my radar as a promising quarterback recruit for SMU, which has had a nice run at the position. But he has blown up over the past few months, rising to No. 2 nationally on ESPN’s recruiting rankings behind Michigan’s Underwood. Russell signed with Alabama and is set to compete for the starting job alongside Ty Simpson and Austin Mack. Russell could become QB1 for DeBoer, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and a staff that helped Michael Penix Jr. become the Heisman Trophy runner-up. From a transfer standpoint, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is a fascinating addition. Duke let record-setting QB Maalik Murphy walk and made a significant investment in Mensah, who shined for Tulane and could keep the Blue Devils on a promising trajectory under coach Manny Diaz.
Trotter: How about Texas Tech‘s entire transfer portal class, which ranked No. 2 behind only LSU in ESPN’s transfer class rankings? The Red Raiders added two impact defensive linemen in Lee Hunter (USC) and Romello Height (Georgia Tech) to bolster a defense that ranked just 13th in the Big 12 last season in defensive EPA (expected points allowed). Tech bolstered the trenches offensively, as well, with the arrivals of tackles Howard Sampson (North Carolina) and Hunter Zambrano (Illinois State), among others. If those transfers can lead to better line play on either side of the ball, Texas Tech, coming off a solid eight-win season, could become one of the surprise teams of college football in 2025.
Uggetti: I’ll build off Low’s point to say that I’m really intrigued to see what exactly Sayin will look like for the Buckeyes come fall. Sayin’s talent is undeniable — there’s a reason he was previously committed to play for Nick Saban — but Ohio State is chock full of talent ready to make another run at a national title and Sayin will need to grow quickly if he’s to be the team’s starter and leader. As time goes on, I think we’ll look back at what Will Howard was able to do last season with even greater admiration. Sayin has the advantage of having been in the Buckeyes’ system for a season now, but even though he’ll have plenty of skill players to rely on, coach Ryan Day & Co. will be forced to ask plenty of him come kickoff.
5. Who’s going to surprise us?
Hale: After the Cardinals won 19 games over the past two years, it might not be fair to call Louisville a surprise, but it isn’t exactly pegged as a surefire playoff team either. There’s a lot to like about next season’s squad, though. Miller Moss arrives from USC, and after getting the most out of Jack Plummer and Tyler Shough, coach Jeff Brohm might have his best QB yet at Louisville. Add in a healthy Caullin Lacy at receiver, explosive sophomore Isaac Brown at running back and the return of a number of key contributors on D, and it’s easy to see how this team could jell nicely. Then remember that all four of Louisville’s losses in 2024 were by a touchdown or less — the Cards were one of just five teams not to lose by more than 8 points — and it’s clear the margin between a very good team and one that’s capable of making a postseason run isn’t huge.
Low: Kalani Sitake and his BYU team didn’t get nearly the love the Cougars deserved last season after an 11-2 finish. They beat playoff participant SMU on the road and routed Colorado in the Alamo Bowl to cap the season. Both of their losses (Kansas and Arizona State) were by five or fewer points. BYU could be in for an even better season in 2025 and right there knocking on the door for a playoff berth. Its top playmakers on offense return, including Retzlaff, and many of the key players from the Big 12’s top defense a year ago are back, starting with one of the most productive linebacker corps in the country in Isaiah Glasker, Jack Kelly and Harrison Taggart. Utah transfer Keanu Tanuvasa will fill a key void at defensive tackle. The Cougars are deep at cornerback, and Will Ferrin is one of the best place-kickers in the country.
Rittenberg: Texas Tech is entering what seems like a pivotal year for coach Joey McGuire and the program. The school and its deep-pocketed donors, including NFL star Patrick Mahomes, have made the necessary investments to position McGuire for a Big 12 title push. Texas Tech also has a favorable schedule, featuring no Power 4 non-league opponents. McGuire has new coordinators on both sides of the ball but brings back most of his defense and veteran quarterback Behren Morton. The Big 12 always will be fairly wide open, and Texas Tech, after three straight winning seasons under McGuire, could break through this fall.
Trotter: Could it finally be Nebraska? The Cornhuskers delivered their first winning record in eight years in 2024 — and yet, the season felt like another disappointment. The Huskers dropped five of their final six Big Ten games, including a crushing 13-10 defeat at rival Iowa to end the regular season. Still, Nebraska returns tantalizing quarterback Dylan Raiola, who won the starting job as a true freshman in Week 1. Like the entire team, Raiola was up and down in his first season. But he was also a five-star recruit for a reason. With a year of experience behind him, could Raiola be in for a breakout sophomore campaign? If so, the Huskers could surprise.
Uggetti: I’m not entirely sure whether Oklahoma would qualify as a surprise here (Schlabach doesn’t have them in his Way-Too-Early top 25), but I could not be more in on the Mateer experience, and that leads me to believe the Sooners could be in for, at the very least, a very entertaining year. Mateer had a ridiculous season in Pullman, throwing for 3,139 yards, rushing for 826 yards and totaling a combined 44 touchdowns as a dual-threat quarterback. Mateer will be surrounded by a more talented team in Norman, and that should set up the Sooners’ offense for a much-improved season.
Bonagura: When coach Jonathan Smith was at Oregon State, the Beavers got progressively better. So, while his first year at Michigan State (5-7) ended without a bowl game, I’m confident he’ll get things headed in the right direction sooner rather than later. An eight- or nine-win season seems reasonable.
6. Which late-season game are you looking forward to?
Adelson: This is an easy one: Ohio State at Michigan. Sure, the Buckeyes were able to overcome their fourth straight loss to Michigan this past season and win the national championship, but you can bet as soon as November rolls around there will be hyperbolic talk once again about whether Ryan Day needs to beat Michigan considering his long losing streak and 1-4 record against “That Team Up North.” Day obviously has the support of the Ohio State administration, earning a new seven-year deal that makes him the second-highest-paid coach behind Kirby Smart. But the pressure will once again be on to avoid joining John Wilce as the only coaches in school history to lose five straight to their rivals.
Schlabach: Texas benefited from a friendly schedule in its first season in the SEC in 2024. The Longhorns’ slate in 2025 isn’t as difficult as other SEC teams’, but they will have to play at Florida on Oct. 4 and at Georgia on Nov. 15. The Longhorns’ trip to Athens, Georgia, should be a pivotal game in the SEC and CFP race. Texas lost to the Bulldogs twice last season, 30-15 at home and 22-19 in overtime in the SEC championship game. Gunner Stockton is the favorite to replace Beck at quarterback, and it will be a difficult road environment for Manning and the UT offense.
Low: Ole Miss went into Columbia and spanked South Carolina by three touchdowns a year ago, a 27-3 loss that the Gamecocks couldn’t overcome in the eyes of the playoff selection committee. The two teams meet next season on Nov. 1 in Oxford with the Rebels coming off back-to-back road games against Oklahoma and Georgia. The two quarterbacks, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Ole Miss’ Austin Simmons, are two of the SEC’s rising stars, and this is a game that will likely knock the loser out of the playoff race. Both teams believe they had legitimate claims for the playoff last season. Here’s a chance potentially to stake those claims again in 2025.
Rittenberg: After improving from four wins in coach Deion Sanders’ first season to nine last season, Colorado’s next step is clear — a Big 12 title and a CFP appearance. The Buffs will have to go through the defending league champions, though; they host Arizona State on Nov. 22 at Folsom Field. Colorado will have an open week before the game, its home finale, while ASU will be coming off a home contest against West Virginia. Arizona State won its final five regular-season games to reach the league championship in 2024, but it didn’t face Colorado, generally regarded as the league’s most talented team. The clash in Boulder likely will impact who ends up playing for the conference title.
Trotter: Andrea is spot on — it’s Ohio State at Michigan. Even after capturing a national championship, it’s impossible to think of a program that faces more pressure to defeat its rival than Ohio State. Michigan’s upset as a three-touchdown underdog last year, its fourth victory in a row in the series, led to a midfield flag plant followed by an on-field melee that lasted almost five minutes and was broken up only after police unleashed pepper spray. Both teams are losing a ton of talent to the NFL, so who knows if a Big Ten title game appearance will be at stake. But pride will surely be on the line for the most bitter rivalry going in all of sports.
Bonagura: I’ll look forward to reading this again in November to see how different the landscape looks then. The obvious answer is Ohio State-Michigan, but Texas at Georgia two weeks earlier also figures to be appointment viewing. The cheapest get-in ticket right now is $559, which is an absurd number for a late-season game before spring practice had even begun.
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Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations
Published
50 mins agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
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Bill ConnellyJul 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
Sports
It’s MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways
Published
13 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
Sports
Report: Sternberg to sell Rays for $1.7 billion
Published
13 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
-
ESPN News Services
Jul 14, 2025, 06:21 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays owner Stu Sternberg has agreed in principle to a $1.7 billion deal to sell the franchise to a group led by a Florida-based developer Patrick Zalupski, according to a report from The Athletic.
The deal is reportedly expected to be closed as early as September and will keep the franchise in the area, with Zalupski, a homebuilder in Jacksonville, having a strong preference to land in Tampa rather than St. Petersburg.
Sternberg bought the Rays in 2004 for $200 million.
According to Zalupski’s online bio, he is the founder, president and CEO of Dream Finders Homes. The company was founded in December 2008 and closed on 27 homes in Jacksonville the following year. Now, with an expanded footprint to many parts of the United States, Dream Finders has closed on more than 31,100 homes since its founding.
He also is a member of the board of trustees at the University of Florida.
The new ownership group also reportedly includes Bill Cosgrove, the CEO of Union Home Mortgage, and Ken Babby, owner of the Akron RubberDucks and Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, both minor-league teams.
A year ago, Sternberg had a deal in place to build a new stadium in the Historic Gas Plant District, a reimagined recreational, retail and residential district in St. Petersburg to replace Tropicana Field.
However, after Hurricane Milton shredded the roof of the stadium last October, forcing the Rays into temporary quarters, Sternberg changed his tune, saying the team would have to bear excess costs that were not in the budget.
“After careful deliberation, we have concluded we cannot move forward with the new ballpark and development project at this moment,” Sternberg said in a statement in March. “A series of events beginning in October that no one could have anticipated led to this difficult decision.”
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and some other owners began in March to privately push Sternberg to sell the franchise, The Athletic reported.
It is unclear what Zalupski’s group, if it ultimately goes through with the purchase and is approved by MLB owners, will do for a permanent stadium.
The Rays are playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, located at the site of the New York Yankees‘ spring training facility and home of their Single-A Tampa Tarpons.
Field Level Media contributed to this report.
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