Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
MESA, Ariz. — Three and a half years after deciding to retool their major and minor league rosters at the 2021 MLB trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs believe this is the season it should pay off with a playoff appearance.
The Cubs haven’t hidden their sense of urgency that has separated this winter from recent ones. From the moves the front office made to what has been said as the team reports to camp, Chicago has one thing in mind: playing October baseball for the first time in half a decade.
“I think we’re in a competitive window,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said when the Cubs reported this week. “I think we’ve gotten better each year. I think we’re at a place where we have a chance to be really good and we’ve been trying to really maximize our resources within our budget to make sure that we can do that.”
As they enter the heart of what they believe is their next contention window, the Cubs aren’t spending like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets (hence a slower rebuild after moving on from the 2016 championship core) but they aren’t the Pittsburgh Pirates or Milwaukee Brewers either. The Cubs were one of nine teams with a payroll that exceeded the luxury tax limit last season and six of those teams reached the postseason. The Cubs were not one of them, and while ownership wants that to change in 2025, they were outbid by the Boston Red Sox for top remaining free agent Alex Bregman.
The team still is littered with $20 million-caliber players even without Bregman, such as newly acquired outfielder Kyle Tucker, whose arrival this winter signaled the shift in strategy. The Cubs traded three players, including a recent first-round draft pick, for the soon-to-be free agent Tucker.
“You don’t make a trade for Kyle Tucker if you don’t feel like you have a really strong team going into that year,” general manager Carter Hawkins said. “And so certainly I would say objectively we’ve improved year over year in terms of just the talent level that’s on the field — and in the three-plus years I’ve been here, this is certainly the most talented team we’ve had.”
The projection systems agree, with predictions as high as 87 (ESPN BET) to 90 wins (PECOTA) and a National League Central-best 84.9 wins that gives them a 39.3% chance of winning the division, according to ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle. Whether they reach the loftiest projections, the team is primed to take a leap forward in Craig Counsell’s second year as manager after back-to-back 83-win seasons.
“It should feel like this all the time,” Counsell told ESPN earlier this week. “From that perspective, it makes me happy that we have high expectations.
“When you trade for a great player and he has one year left on his contract, that tells you a lot.”
Counsell acknowledged the team had to “rebuild a few things” after trading former stars Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez in 2021. The process ate up a lot of the five-year contract Hoyer signed after Theo Epstein stepped down in November 2020. With this season left on his deal (and no extension imminent), Hoyer is well aware of the consequences this year could have on his future.
“I’ve been here for 14 years and sort of generally in my career, I haven’t had much uncertainty,” he said last weekend. “And so I think with uncertainty does come a level of anxiety. I think that would be a lie to say that it doesn’t.”
That feeling wasn’t lost on his handpicked manager. It wasn’t long ago that Hoyer shocked the baseball world when he plucked the well-regarded Counsell from division rival Milwaukee and made him the richest manager in the game. Now Hoyer’s fate — at least in part — is dependent on Counsell getting the best out of the team the front office has built.
“That makes it fun in my opinion,” Counsell said. “It provides a lot of clarity. And I’ve said that to Jed. It’s like, ‘Let’s go.’ I think that’s how he sees it. It can give you a lot of clarity in how you do things. We’re excited to try and do it together. I hope he’s here for a long time.”
As the Cubs’ position players report to camp Friday, here is what could make or break a playoff-caliber season in Chicago.
The stars have to play like stars
Despite the talent bubbling up at Triple-A and a new group of depth players on the major league roster, Counsell acknowledged his best players need to carry the day. Perhaps that’s the case for any roster, but with a team projected in the mid-80s win range that is often near the bar for playoff entry, there is little room for underachieving.
“Everything matters when you’re trying to get extra wins,” Counsell said. “You get it from wherever you can. Every decision is trying to add to that. … We’re going to rely on our regulars. We need production from our regulars, offensively and defensively.”
That wasn’t always the case last season. High-priced shortstop Dansby Swanson may have lost the Gold Glove award with his play in April, then slumped at the plate midseason. Swanson was battling a sports hernia injury that he didn’t disclose until after the season, so his ramp-up will be a little slower this spring. Same goes for second baseman Nico Hoerner, who had flexor tendon surgery on his throwing arm. He could miss a few days at the start of the season. Both are going to be counted on, especially if rookie Matt Shaw is the starting third baseman.
In the outfield, Ian Happ has put up reliable 115 to 120 OPS+ seasons while dynamic center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is just beginning to figure out how dangerous his skill set can be. And if this is the year Seiya Suzuki — now the designated hitter — can put together a solid six months, the Cubs offense could explode.
But the key to the lineup will undoubtedly be Tucker. He has the ability to impact a game in a way no other Cub can — and it comes in his free agent season.
Before they traded for Tucker, Hoyer raised eyebrows when he said his players needed to “exceed” expectations, leading fans to wonder why the team wasn’t just acquiring players with higher ceilings. Now that the club has one, it needs the best version of him with others filling their roles. It’s a good offense that could be great if it clicks.
Who’s on third?
Bregman wasn’t one of the Cubs’ primary targets entering the offseason, so perhaps they’re not overly disappointed or surprised he’s not on their team. But his potential fit at third base had fans salivating as the winter played out. Well at least until Wednesday night, when Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox.
Adding Bregman would have pushed those projection models over 90 wins and given the Cubs a clear path to the postseason. The road to October remains a little less clear with Shaw the likely Opening Day third baseman, but the Cubs believe he could open some eyes around the league.
Shaw is the No. 23-ranked prospect in all of baseball entering the season, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, but comes in a little undersized for the hot corner. At 5-foot-9, he has power that would certainly play at second base, but he’ll be relied on to provide pop playing at a corner.
Michael Busch (who hit 21 homers in 152 games last season) is also on the smaller side for his position at the other infield corner as a 6-foot-1 first baseman.
“It’s not the biggest group on the corners,” one scout said. “But that doesn’t mean they can’t slug. Busch outperformed some expectations last year.”
Not having traditional sluggers at the corners also means the true power hitters on the team — Tucker, Swanson, Suzuki and Happ — are going to be relied on even more.
The bullpen must deliver
The Cubs blew six games that they led entering the ninth inning last season — third most in baseball. Six is also exactly the number of games Chicago finished behind the third NL wild-card team. In overhauling their bullpen for 2025, the urgency to lower that number came by adding experience.
“When I looked at the roster in spring training this year, compared to last year, I think that was the No. 1 thing,” pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “It’s not only the number of bodies but the amount of major league caliber pitchers that have been there and done that.”
Acquired from the Houston Astros late last month, Pressly is the biggest name and could fill a crucial role for a bullpen searching for a competent closer after cycling through one failure after another last season. There were plenty of ninth-inning options on the free agent market this winter, but budget constraints along with Chicago’s overall feelings on many of them outside of Tanner Scott (who chose the Dodgers over the Cubs last month) led to a trade for Pressly.
“I want to be somebody that all these guys can lean on,” Pressly said in his introductory news conference. “Any questions that they have, on or off the field, I want to be that guy for them.”
Counsell added: “When you pitch in those situations, your team is like 10 minutes away from a win. That’s what makes it feel like more for guys that pitch in that situation. We rightly assign some credit for guys with experience there.”
With a revamped lineup and bullpen entering a crucial season, the Cubs hope they are just a smooth ninth-inning away from enough wins to be one of the last teams standing in October.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
PHOENIX, Ariz. — Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred on Tuesday called payroll disparity a principal concern throughout the industry but would not necessarily commit to a salary cap as a central point of negotiations leading up to the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.
Speaking during a spring training media event, Manfred reiterated prior comments while saying the Dodgers have “gone out and done everything possible, always within the rules that currently exist, to put the best possible team on the field, and I think that’s great for the game.” But he acknowledged that fans and owners have expressed concern about their ability to blow other teams away monetarily.
The Dodgers’ competitive balance tax payroll is currently estimated at about $392 million, well beyond the highest threshold, according to Spotrac. Only the New York Mets, a distant second at roughly $321 million, have even cracked $300 million. And while offseason spending has reached $4.6 billion, the Dodgers and Mets have accounted for nearly a quarter of that total. Eight teams, meanwhile, spent $50 million or less this winter.
“Disparity should be, it certainly is, at the top of my list of concerns about what’s occurring in the sport,” Manfred said. “When I say I can’t be critical of the Dodgers — they’re doing what the system allows. If I’m going to be critical of somebody, it’s not going to be the Dodgers. It’s going to be the system.”
The current Dodgers often have been compared to the New York Yankees teams of the 2000s that, under late owner George Steinbrenner, were commonly referred to as “The Evil Empire” for their ability to continually sign star players. But Manfred said these Dodgers are “probably more profitable on a percentage basis than the old Yankees teams were — meaning it could be more sustainable, so it is more of a problem.”
On top of residing in a major market and coming off a World Series championship, the Dodgers boast a regional cable deal that pays them about $334 million annually at a time when teams continue to fall out of their local media contracts. The Dodgers also benefit greatly from Ohtani, who deferred $680 million of his $700 million contract and has brought in massive revenue streams from Japan. The Dodgers have responded by investing the additional money back into their roster, making owners of even major-market teams such as the Yankees and the Chicago Cubs complain about their inability to keep up.
It has all worked to push MLB’s long-held desire for a salary cap back to the forefront. Given that the MLB Players Association has been adamant it would never agree to one, it also has led to widespread concern about a lockout or a work stoppage after the current CBA expires in December 2026. The sides are expected to begin negotiations a year in advance, and payroll disparity — tied strongly to the fading traditional cable model and MLB’s hopes of fitting local media into a national umbrella — will undoubtedly become a hot-button issue.
“I’m not going to get into what the answer is,” Manfred said when asked whether he will seek a salary cap in the next round of bargaining. “We’re a year away. I have owners with really strongly held views that I need to coalesce into a position that we’ll ultimately take to the MLBPA. I don’t think starting that debate publicly is a good start. Whatever we settle on, we’re going to present in the collective bargaining process and try to handle it privately in order to get a deal.”
Manfred addressed many topics in his wide-ranging media availability, which lasted close to half an hour:
• Manfred recently toured Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, California, that will house the Athletics for at least the next three years, and he said the level of excitement within the community for a major league team is “palpable.” He added that the timeline for the A’s new ballpark in Las Vegas has not changed. “I believe we’re going to be on time to go in 2028,” he said.
• Manfred said he believes the Cubs would make a “good host” for the All-Star Game, which has not come to Wrigley Field since 1990. But he did not say whether there has been any progress in talks with city officials about closing down the streets around the ballpark for the event, which MLB and the Cubs consider a prerequisite. The Cubs are pushing to host the All-Star Game as early as 2027, the next available date.
• Manfred reiterated his belief that a separate draft is the best remedy to clean up some of the corruption that occurs on the international market, particularly in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic, where pre-deals, performance-enhancing drug use and age fraud have become especially prevalent in recent years. “The transparency of a draft, the inability to make secret deals because you don’t know who’s going to draft whom, is really the best systemic approach,” he said.
• Manfred said the San Diego Padres, who were previously in danger of violating MLB’s debt-service requirement, have “really improved their revenue situation dramatically.” Manfred said John Seidler, who recently was approved as the Padres’ control person amid litigation from the late Peter Seidler’s widow, “is committed to the Padres long term” and “shares the kind of vision” that Peter Seidler, one of his brothers, had for the team.
• Manfred called the loss of local media deals a “temporal” problem that he believes will eventually affect every team, even the big-market clubs with contracts that are currently secure. He added that the issue won’t be addressed significantly until, at the earliest, after the 2028 season, when MLB’s prominent national deals expire.
“I do think baseball needs to alter its approach in advance of those negotiations,” Manfred said. “I think we need more central control over all the rights, whether they’re traditionally regarded as national or local, and we should be making an effort to make our product more national, because those national games are worth a lot more than games that are sold only in the local market.”
Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
PHOENIX — Thirteen spring stadiums and over 60% of Cactus and Grapefruit League games will feature an automated ball-strike (ABS) challenge system as MLB continues to inch closer to using it during the regular season — though that won’t occur any earlier than 2026.
The league is testing out the system at the big league level for the first time after years of experimenting with ABS in the minor leagues. The rules are as follows:
• During the spring, each team will be given two challenges per game and will retain successful challenges.
• Only the batter, catcher or pitcher can initiate a challenge, which must happen immediately after the umpire’s call. The player must quickly tap his hat or helmet to indicate a challenge.
• The results of the challenge will be displayed on the scoreboard and television broadcast to communicate whether a call was overturned or not.
Every game in each of the above stadiums will employ the challenge system. The league plans to gather data throughout the spring in hopes of determining whether the system is ready to bring to the major league level a year from now.
Additionally, Triple-A baseball will employ the challenge system during the 2025 regular season, giving the league as much information as possible before a decision is made on 2026.
League officials are encouraging players to use the system liberally throughout spring training. After years of experimenting with ABS in the minors, the league determined that both players and fans prefer a challenge system to having every pitch call be automated.
The league believes a challenge system would be less disruptive while retaining the human elements of the game, including pitch framing by catchers.
The league says a challenge takes about 17 seconds to complete. Experiments in the minor leagues showed an overturn rate of about 50%. On average, there were 3.9 challenges per game during minor league testing.
After collecting data, including talking to players, coaches and umpires throughout the spring, and evaluating the Triple-A regular season, the league’s competition committee will determine if ABS becomes a reality in Major League Baseball’s regular season and postseason.
The first game to feature the challenge system will be between the Dodgers and Cubs on Thursday at Camelback Ranch in Glendale, Arizona.
DUNEDIN, Fla. — First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays failed to come to terms on a contract extension prior to his Monday night deadline, paving the way for the 25-year-old star to hit free agency in November.
“They have their numbers; I have my numbers,” Guerrero said Tuesday.
Guerrero, a four-time All-Star and son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, said he had set a deadline of 9 p.m. Monday, but the last call from the Blue Jays came at 10:30 p.m. When asked if the team was close to what he was asking, Guerrero simply said, “No.”
Without a deal in place, Guerrero said he plans to cut off talks and play out the season as an impending free agent, but he also said later that he “won’t close the door” on a “realistic” offer from the Blue Jays.
“Listen, I want to be here. I want to be a Blue Jay for the rest of my career,” Guerrero said. “But it’s free agency. It’s business. So I’m going to have to listen to 29 more teams and they’re going to have to compete for that.”
The inability to strike a deal is the latest blow for the Blue Jays, whose pursuit of franchise-caliber talent in recent years was a black mark for the franchise. Toronto’s heavy recruitment of two-way star Shohei Ohtani and outfielder Juan Soto wound up in disappointment, as they signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, respectively, and the potential departure of their best homegrown talent since Hall of Famer Roy Halladay is even more acute.
“Soto’s deal had nothing to do with my decision at all,” Guerrero said. “Even before that, I knew my value. I knew my number.”
Guerrero said the Blue Jays had known about his deadline since last season, and he didn’t want negotiations to carry into spring training and become a distraction.
“I don’t want — especially my teammates — to go through any distractions,” Guerrero said. “I’m here today, I’m ready and want to win a lot of games, and I want to make it to the playoffs. That’s all.”
Toronto could explore a trade for Guerrero, who would warrant one of the biggest returns in recent memory. The Blue Jays, sources said, are more inclined to start the season with Guerrero in their lineup and reassess the possibility of a trade as the July deadline approaches.
Guerrero, meanwhile, said there’s no animosity toward the Jays’ front office.
“I love the city. I love the fans,” Guerrero said. “I mean, it’s hard, but at the end of the day, like I say, it’s business. I’ll do everything that I have to stay here with the Blue Jays. I love it here. I want to be here.”
Over his six seasons in Toronto, Guerrero has developed into one of the game’s most fearsome hitters. Last season, he hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs. And come November, big-market suitors are expected lavish him with some of the largest contract offers in baseball history.
In the wake of the 15-year, $765 million contract the Mets this winter gave to Soto — who, along with Guerrero and Fernando Tatis Jr., were part of the all-time-great international signing class in 2015 — the potential free agent jackpot for Guerrero exceeds what the Blue Jays were willing to offer.
They had tried to lock Guerrero up long-term for years to no avail. With the deadline looming, negotiations that had been sporadic over the winter picked up this week with hopes of striking a deal.
Without one in place, Guerrero will report to the Blue Jays’ first full workout Tuesday with the specter of his free agency bound to loom over Toronto’s season after a last-place finish in the American League East last year.
Since he debuted shortly after his 20th birthday in 2019 and homered 15 times as a rookie, Guerrero has been one of baseball’s most-recognized players. His breakout season came in 2021, when Guerrero finished second to Aaron Judge in American League MVP voting, hitting .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs and 111 RBIs.
Guerrero followed with a pair of solid-but-below-expectations seasons in 2022 and 2023, and in mid-May of last season, he sported an OPS under .750 as the Blue Jays struggled en route to an eventual last-place finish. Over his last 116 games, the Guerrero of 2021 reemerged, as he hit .343/.407/.604 with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs.
Between Guerrero and shortstop Bo Bichette‘s free agency after the 2025 season, the Blue Jays faced a potential reckoning. While Bichette will play out the season and is widely expected not to re-sign with the Blue Jays, the team had hoped an extension for Guerrero would give them a franchise player around whom they could build.
With a payroll expected to exceed the luxury tax threshold of $241 million, the Blue Jays will field a team with playoff aspirations — and one that just as easily could find itself toward the bottom of the standings, with the defending AL champion New York Yankees, much-improved Boston Red Sox, always-solid Tampa Bay Rays and young-and-talented Baltimore Orioles in the same division.
Toronto’s long-term commitments will allow for significant financial flexibility going forward — particularly if they re-allocate the hundreds of millions they offered Guerrero. In addition to Guerrero, Bichette and Scherzer, right-hander Chris Bassitt and relievers Chad Green and Erik Swanson are free agents following this season. Following 2026, the nine-figure deals of outfielder George Springer and right-hander Kevin Gausman come off the books as well.
Building around Guerrero would have been a good place to start. One of only a dozen players in MLB with at least two seasons of six or more Wins Above Replacement since 2021, Guerrero consistently finds himself near the top of MLB leaderboards in hardest-hit balls, a metric that typically translates to great success.
Like his father, who hit 449 home runs and batted .318 over a 16-year career, Guerrero has rare bat-to-ball skills, particularly for a player with top-of-the-scale power. In his six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 with 160 home runs, 507 RBIs and 551 strikeouts against 349 walks over 3,540 plate appearances.
“My dad played a lot of years, and he never won the World Series,” Guerrero said. “And I always say my personal goal is to win a World Series and gave the ring to my dad. So that’s all I’m looking for.”
Originally a third baseman, Guerrero shifted to first base during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Had the Blue Jays signed Alonso, they signaled the possibility of Guerrero returning full-time to third, where he played a dozen games last year.
Without an extension in place, the 6-foot-2, 245-pound Guerrero will have to wait to reset a market that previously had been topped by the eight-year, $248 million extension Miguel Cabrera signed just shy of his 31st birthday in 2014.
Teams without long-term first-base solutions beyond 2025 that could target Guerrero, who turns 26 in March, include the Yankees (Paul Goldschmidt is on a one-year deal) and Mets (Alonso can opt out of his two-year contract following the season).