Who wins the U.S.-Canada rematch? Goalie confidence, X factors, keys to victory
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 4 Nations Face-Off final is set. A 5-3 win for Canada in Monday’s game against Finland has pushed it through to the championship game, where it will face the United States. The U.S. clinched its spot in the final with a 3-1 win over Canada on Saturday.
If the return match between the two North American rivals is anything like the first one, hockey fans are in for another treat. That game — which featured three fights in the first nine seconds of play — was heralded by many players as one of the most intense games in which they’d played in their careers.
With the teams set for the final game of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off, let’s explore the players who have been most important to each squad, the X factors for Thursday’s game, and just how confident each nation should be in its goaltender.
United States
What we’ve learned so far
All the conversations about what this version of Team USA could achieve has manifested itself in a few ways. Against Finland, the U.S. looked the part of a team that was comfortable playing in a tight-checking game — only to provide the sort of offensive surge with three goals on its first four shots to start the third period.
The performance against Canada further amplified how the squad could rely on its collective talent, capitalizing on mistakes while having the flexibility to withstand a late push.
Team MVP through round robin
Jaccob Slavin. Saying “a Tkachuk” would have made sense, considering Brady and Matthew have combined to score four of nine goals for the U.S. through its first two games. And while the brothers’ exploits have received quite a bit of attention, there’s an argument to be made for the role Slavin has played in the success of the team.
Sweden defenseman Victor Hedman is the only skater who is averaging more ice time than Slavin during the tournament. Slavin is averaging more than 23 minutes per game, while anchoring a penalty kill that has been perfect through two games, which also speaks to what has allowed the U.S. to succeed within its defensive structure.
2:33
Jack Eichel: USA-Canada feels like a Stanley Cup Final game
Jack Eichel joins “SportsCenter” and describes the USA-Canada game intensity following the Americans’ 3-1 win.
X factor: Special teams
Entering the third day of the tournament, there have been only four power-play goals. The U.S. was responsible for scoring two of those goals on five chances. And that’s being done without one of the NHL’s premier power-play quarterbacks in Vancouver Canucks star captain Quinn Hughes, who sat out the tournament because of injury.
The ability to capitalize on the power play has been balanced by a penalty kill that has gone 4-for-4 through two games because of a structure that not only moves with the puck but works to disrupt passing lanes at all times.
Goalie confidence: (9.5/10)
You might have heard: Connor Hellebuyck is another Vezina Trophy away from being the only American to win three. That would put him in a category with Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy, among others.
His strong performance in the regular season has carried over to the 4 Nations so far, with Hellebuyck allowing just two goals total in two games. But even with those two goals allowed, Hellebuyck made a number of saves that either made Finland look listless in its opening game, and leaving Canada frustrated in its inability to consistently take advantage of its high-danger chances in a 3-1 loss.
2:45
USA drops gloves early, then beats Canada to reach 4 Nations title game
Team USA bests Canada 3-1 in Montreal as the Americans book their spot in the final of the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Canada
What we’ve learned so far
Canada has taken its time finding a rhythm. It was frequently its own worst enemy in the round robin, and those mistakes often proved costly. Canada showed a different confidence in its last game against Finland, which seemed driven by their star players setting a tone.
But Canada can’t just rely on the likes of Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon to find twine against the U.S. There are strong role players in Canada’s bottom six who can — and should — have an impact, whether it’s Sam Bennett adding some punch (literally) or the threat of a Mitch Marner–Anthony Cirelli connection.
And when it comes to Canada’s blue line, it’s not the same without Cale Makar — that was obvious within minutes of him stepping back into the lineup for Monday’s game after sitting out the first game against the U.S. on Saturday because of illness. Jordan Binnington also proved in Monday’s clash why coach Jon Cooper keeps going back to him — Binnington can come through for Canada when it counts.
Team MVP through round robin
Connor McDavid. Now, this is tough, because Sidney Crosby is Canada’s points leader (with five) and Cooper essentially (or actually?) called him a god in Monday’s postgame news conference. And MacKinnon also has been excellent.
But it’s tough to discount what McDavid has done. He scored the opening goal in their last two games (including the lone marker on Connor Hellebuyck in the first matchup against the Americans), and the way he dominated offensively in Monday’s game with Finland was pure magic.
There’s no one who can flip a switch quite like McDavid. If he’s hitting that stride now, that’s everything Canada needs to feel confident ahead of the final.
X factor: Scoring depth
Does Canada have enough of it? They’re about to find out. The U.S. relied on its role players such as Dylan Larkin to win Saturday.
Canada’s scoring to date has come primarily from its top two lines, and that’s important — critical, even. But Canada can’t be one-dimensional in its attack. There’s enough talent on each line that, when showcased early, can make the U.S. nervous. Canada has to tap into that mentality more than it has in recent games.
If the top lines are nullified by the U.S. — and vice versa — then victory could come down to which team gets the most out of its third and fourth units. And the way Cooper chooses to dole out ice time from puck drop also will be telling, and will show what he learned about how the teams matched up in the previous meeting.
Goalie confidence: (7.5/10)
Jordan Binnington is a polarizing figure. Cooper’s determination to stick with him as Canada’s starter throughout this tournament has been met with criticism, confusion and countless questions. His stats at the event also have been underwhelming (.892 save percentage, 2.60 goals-against average).
But Cooper hasn’t wavered, and Binnington was the best he has been so far in Canada’s game against Finland.
Now it comes down to whether the Stanley Cup-winning St. Louis Blues backstop can carry that performance over into the final — at least the one he turned in for 55 minutes (giving up two 6-on-5 goals to the Finns in three minutes was a tough look). Timely stops — that’s what Hellebuyck has provided the U.S., and it’s what Binnington has increasingly shown he can give to Canada.
Granted, Binnington didn’t get much help offensively from his teammates in that first outing against the Americans, but regardless if that’s the case again Thursday, Binnington must save his most complete effort for this final bout.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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