Olney: What missing out on Alex Bregman says about Cubs’ unwillingness to spend
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Buster Olney
Hurricane Milton wrecked the Tampa Bay Rays’ ballpark last fall, leaving them without a stadium. For this season, they will play their home games in the Yankees’ spring training facility, which has a capacity in the range of 11,000 fans.
And yet the Rays have outspent the Chicago Cubs in free agency this winter.
Which says so much more about the conduct of the big-market Cubs than about the Rays. Last week, the Cubs were outbid by multiple teams for the services of All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman, and the question that should hang over the franchise is: why? Why aren’t the Cubs spending more?
Owner Tom Ricketts provided no answers last week when he briefly stopped by camp in Arizona, told the players that it was a privilege to play for his organization (according to manager Craig Counsell) and then left without speaking to reporters. Jed Hoyer, the team’s head of baseball operations, cited the club’s budget when asked about the Bregman bidding. The Cubs dangled a four-year, $115 million deal that left them outbid significantly by the Tigers and Astros, and Bregman chose a three-year deal with the Red Sox, partly to give himself the option of testing the market again next fall since the deal includes two opt-outs.
Nothing about the Cubs’ offer could’ve given them a legitimate shot at landing a player who would’ve been a perfect fit. The Tigers offered the most total dollars on the table; the Astros offered a chance for Bregman to continue his Houston legacy, without being tapped for state taxes. The Red Sox deal offered the highest average annual salary with contractual flexibility. It was as if the Cubs wanted Bregman to play for less money and the privilege of being part of their organization.
But it’s hard to see that being appealing enough to convince someone like Bregman, who has played in the postseason in every year of his career and aims to continue that tradition. Despite the fact that the Cubs are playing in baseball’s land of opportunity, the incredibly weak NL Central, they’ve given no indication that winning is actually a priority. Making money seems to be the modus operandi.
This all comes at the end of a winter in which Ricketts already made headlines for his comments about the Cubs’ inability to keep up with the sport’s top payrolls when he told 670 AM in Chicago that “it’s really hard to compete” with the Dodgers. In that January interview, he said that fans “think somehow we have all these dollars that the Dodgers have or the Mets have or the Yankees have and we just keep it. Which isn’t true at all. What happens is we try to break even every year, and that’s about it.”
But that doesn’t really align with the available numbers from Sportico’s MLB team values rankings. The Cubs’ franchise value, as assessed by Sportico, was at $5.3 billion as of last season. That’s the fourth highest in Major League Baseball, and more than three times greater than the combined value of the Brewers ($1.6 billion), Reds ($1.5 billion) and Pirates ($1.4 billion). The Cubs’ revenue generated last season, as estimated by Sportico, was at $502 million, the fourth highest in the majors, behind the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox.
With the draw of Wrigley Field, the Cubs’ ability to generate income is Teflon-coated, especially compared to other teams that didn’t spend much this winter. The Rays’ situation is fragile; it’s really tough for fans to get to and from the Marlins’ park; and even Cardinals’ fans have vacated their park in recent years because of the team’s lackluster play. But even in the worst years, the Cubs draw. It’s one benefit of playing in the third-largest market in the nation.
And yet the Cubs’ payroll will be significantly lower than last year. Per Sportico, the Cubs are in line to spend $186 million in player salary, or nearly $30 million less than last year.
Sure, the Cubs traded for All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros — for one year, perhaps, because Tucker will be a free agent in the fall — but the front office seemingly had to move Cody Bellinger and his $27.5 million salary to make that happen. Tucker will make $16.5 million.
The Cubs swapped for Ryan Pressly, after the Astros agreed to pay down some of his salary. Colin Rea was signed for $5 million. And the Cubs signed Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million deal.
The storm-ravaged Rays? They landed shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for $29 million over two years and signed catcher Danny Jansen to a one-year, $8.5 million deal. With those two contracts, Tampa Bay spent more in free agency than the Cubs.
Yes, the Cubs’ overall payroll currently sits just above $185 million compared to $72 million for the Rays, but in a crucial offseason for the franchise, Chicago has elected to spend like its small-market counterparts. And, yes, the Cubs do have reason for hope in 2025, but also likely not enough star talent to stand toe to toe with the National League’s best.
The defense is excellent — Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are exceptional up the middle, and the outfield of Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Tucker will probably be the best in the majors. A signing of Bregman would’ve given the Cubs another lockdown defender, another Gold Glove contender feeding into a distinct style. The Dodgers might have the most prolific offense; the Phillies have a great group of veterans; Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider will be back for the Braves; the Mets added Juan Soto — but with a high-end third baseman, the Cubs could have been the best run prevention team in baseball, which often translates well in the postseason. And Bregman would’ve improved an offense that was so inconsistent last year.
Instead, the financially mighty Cubs chose to effectively stand down in the bidding for Bregman, content to fall somewhere in the range of 12th to 14th among the 30 teams in their payroll size, and they have a roster that feels unequipped to take on the teams that were willing to spend.
Ricketts can rightly expect the best effort from his players. But sadly, he has not reciprocated. The Cubs players — the Cubs fans — deserve better.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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