Olney: What missing out on Alex Bregman says about Cubs’ unwillingness to spend
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Buster Olney
Hurricane Milton wrecked the Tampa Bay Rays’ ballpark last fall, leaving them without a stadium. For this season, they will play their home games in the Yankees’ spring training facility, which has a capacity in the range of 11,000 fans.
And yet the Rays have outspent the Chicago Cubs in free agency this winter.
Which says so much more about the conduct of the big-market Cubs than about the Rays. Last week, the Cubs were outbid by multiple teams for the services of All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman, and the question that should hang over the franchise is: why? Why aren’t the Cubs spending more?
Owner Tom Ricketts provided no answers last week when he briefly stopped by camp in Arizona, told the players that it was a privilege to play for his organization (according to manager Craig Counsell) and then left without speaking to reporters. Jed Hoyer, the team’s head of baseball operations, cited the club’s budget when asked about the Bregman bidding. The Cubs dangled a four-year, $115 million deal that left them outbid significantly by the Tigers and Astros, and Bregman chose a three-year deal with the Red Sox, partly to give himself the option of testing the market again next fall since the deal includes two opt-outs.
Nothing about the Cubs’ offer could’ve given them a legitimate shot at landing a player who would’ve been a perfect fit. The Tigers offered the most total dollars on the table; the Astros offered a chance for Bregman to continue his Houston legacy, without being tapped for state taxes. The Red Sox deal offered the highest average annual salary with contractual flexibility. It was as if the Cubs wanted Bregman to play for less money and the privilege of being part of their organization.
But it’s hard to see that being appealing enough to convince someone like Bregman, who has played in the postseason in every year of his career and aims to continue that tradition. Despite the fact that the Cubs are playing in baseball’s land of opportunity, the incredibly weak NL Central, they’ve given no indication that winning is actually a priority. Making money seems to be the modus operandi.
This all comes at the end of a winter in which Ricketts already made headlines for his comments about the Cubs’ inability to keep up with the sport’s top payrolls when he told 670 AM in Chicago that “it’s really hard to compete” with the Dodgers. In that January interview, he said that fans “think somehow we have all these dollars that the Dodgers have or the Mets have or the Yankees have and we just keep it. Which isn’t true at all. What happens is we try to break even every year, and that’s about it.”
But that doesn’t really align with the available numbers from Sportico’s MLB team values rankings. The Cubs’ franchise value, as assessed by Sportico, was at $5.3 billion as of last season. That’s the fourth highest in Major League Baseball, and more than three times greater than the combined value of the Brewers ($1.6 billion), Reds ($1.5 billion) and Pirates ($1.4 billion). The Cubs’ revenue generated last season, as estimated by Sportico, was at $502 million, the fourth highest in the majors, behind the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox.
With the draw of Wrigley Field, the Cubs’ ability to generate income is Teflon-coated, especially compared to other teams that didn’t spend much this winter. The Rays’ situation is fragile; it’s really tough for fans to get to and from the Marlins’ park; and even Cardinals’ fans have vacated their park in recent years because of the team’s lackluster play. But even in the worst years, the Cubs draw. It’s one benefit of playing in the third-largest market in the nation.
And yet the Cubs’ payroll will be significantly lower than last year. Per Sportico, the Cubs are in line to spend $186 million in player salary, or nearly $30 million less than last year.
Sure, the Cubs traded for All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros — for one year, perhaps, because Tucker will be a free agent in the fall — but the front office seemingly had to move Cody Bellinger and his $27.5 million salary to make that happen. Tucker will make $16.5 million.
The Cubs swapped for Ryan Pressly, after the Astros agreed to pay down some of his salary. Colin Rea was signed for $5 million. And the Cubs signed Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million deal.
The storm-ravaged Rays? They landed shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for $29 million over two years and signed catcher Danny Jansen to a one-year, $8.5 million deal. With those two contracts, Tampa Bay spent more in free agency than the Cubs.
Yes, the Cubs’ overall payroll currently sits just above $185 million compared to $72 million for the Rays, but in a crucial offseason for the franchise, Chicago has elected to spend like its small-market counterparts. And, yes, the Cubs do have reason for hope in 2025, but also likely not enough star talent to stand toe to toe with the National League’s best.
The defense is excellent — Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are exceptional up the middle, and the outfield of Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Tucker will probably be the best in the majors. A signing of Bregman would’ve given the Cubs another lockdown defender, another Gold Glove contender feeding into a distinct style. The Dodgers might have the most prolific offense; the Phillies have a great group of veterans; Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider will be back for the Braves; the Mets added Juan Soto — but with a high-end third baseman, the Cubs could have been the best run prevention team in baseball, which often translates well in the postseason. And Bregman would’ve improved an offense that was so inconsistent last year.
Instead, the financially mighty Cubs chose to effectively stand down in the bidding for Bregman, content to fall somewhere in the range of 12th to 14th among the 30 teams in their payroll size, and they have a roster that feels unequipped to take on the teams that were willing to spend.
Ricketts can rightly expect the best effort from his players. But sadly, he has not reciprocated. The Cubs players — the Cubs fans — deserve better.
The 150th running of the Preakness won’t have the fanfare of previous years.
There will be no Triple Crown on the line and no rematch of the 1-2 finishers in the Kentucky Derby after trainer Bill Mott elected to point Sovereignty toward the Belmont and bypass the Preakness.
Just three horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby will run in the Preakness on Saturday — Journalism, who finished second to Sovereignty, American Promise (16th) and Sandman (seventh). Nine horses will enter the race, including several newcomers to the Triple Crown trail.
Top storylines
While a Kentucky Derby winner skipping the Preakness is a rarity over the history of the race, it’s become more common in recent years. Country House, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after Maximum Security was disqualified, was not entered into the race by Mott due to a cough. Other ailments ended his career early and he never raced again.
Rich Strike was not entered in the 2022 Preakness and neither was 2021 winner Mandaloun, who was not declared the official winner of the Kentucky Derby until Medina Spirit was officially disqualified after failing a postrace drug test.
The modern order of the Triple Crown races, with the Kentucky Derby first and the Belmont last, was established permanently in 1932, with some exceptions. Notable Kentucky Derby winners who skipped the second leg are: Grindstone (1996, career-ending injury), Spend a Buck (1985), Gato Del Sol (1982), Tomy Lee (1959), Swaps (1955), Determine (1954), Hill Gail (1952), Count Turf (1951) and Lawrin (1938).
This will be the final Preakness run at Pimlico for several years, as the 155-year-old track is set to undergo renovations for the next several years, including the replacement of the current grandstand for a smaller version. The Preakness will move to Laurel Park until renovations are complete.
Betting the Preakness
by Katherine Terrell
What’s the big draw now that the Kentucky Derby winner is out of the race? Journalism, who went off as the betting favorite in the race, gets a chance for redemption.
While putting Journalism on top of our Kentucky Derby bets didn’t quite pan out, he’s certainly going to be a worthy, and heavy, favorite in this race. Don’t take his second-place finish as a knock on his talent — he’s the most accomplished horse in this field.
What about Sandman, who drew significant attention in the Kentucky Derby due to his name? Sandman was named after the Metallica Song “Enter Sandman,” and the band recently posted a video cheering him on ahead of the Preakness.
Sandman’s trainer Mark Casse said the horse had tender feet going into his last race, causing him to sport glue-on shoes, but he has since been switched back to normal horseshoes. Sandman is a closer, meaning he would need a fast pace up front to be able to pass tiring horses and win this race.
Some of the more intriguing newcomers are Goal Oriented, trained by Bob Baffert and Steve Asmussen trainee Clever Again. Both are lightly raced, and bettors who are looking for better odds than Journalism provides might hope one of these two horses takes a step forward.
That’s the same situation as Gosger, who is 20-1 on the morning line but recently won the Grade III Lexington Stakes. He will also have to take a step forward or hope Journalism runs poorly off two weeks rest.
Journalism can sit back off the pace and hope the leaders get into a speed duel, a possibility with a lot of speed in the race. Either way, he’ll be a tough favorite to bet.
About the above chart: A Beyer number is a ratings system for speed during races. Some think horses need at least one race where they run a 95 Beyer number or over to be competitive in the Derby. Many of these horses have races where they’ve run over a 100 Beyer number or better.
The logical bet: Journalism to win (8-5) but will require a large bet to get a decent return.
The slightly better odds bet: Clever Again to win (5-1)
Two suggested bets:
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Exacta box: Journalism/Clever Again
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Trifecta: Journalism over Clever Again over River Thames, Gosger.
Best plays
by Anita Marks
No. 2 Journalism (8-5) is favored and rightfully so. He ran a great race in the Derby, but Sovereignty was just the better horse that day. With such a small field (nine horses), along with his pedigree, Journalism should dominate.
Other horses I fancy in the Preakness:
Clever Again (5-1) is a unique animal with a lot of talent. I believe he is the second-best horse in the race. Son of American Pharaoh — who won the Triple Crown — and trained by Steve Asmussen, an excellent trainer. He is super fast, is in great form and is training well.
Goal Oriented (6-1): A Bob Baffert horse. and will have one of the best jockeys on his back in Flavien Prat. He has the speed to come out of the No. 1 post and will be sent hard. Son of Not This Time and was the winner of a 1 1/16-mile race on the Kentucky Derby undercard. This will be his third race.
Preakness Plays:
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To win or place: Clever Again
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Exacta box: Goal Oriented, Journalism, Clever Again
After building a 2-0 lead on the Florida Panthers in their second-round series, the Toronto Maple Leafs are now down 3-2 leading into Friday’s Game 6 (8 p.m. ET, TNT).
Will this be the final game of the Maple Leafs’ season? Or will they force a Game 7 on Sunday?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Thursday’s games and the three stars of Thursday from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers
Game 6 | 8 p.m. ET | TNT
With the Panthers up 3-2 in the series, ESPN BET now lists them as -800 to win this series, with the Maple Leafs at +500. Florida’s Stanley Cup odds are now +300, while Toronto’s are +2500.
The Panthers are 5-1 all time when leading 3-2 in a seven-game series. The only loss came in the 2012 playoffs against the Devils. The Maple Leafs are 6-18 all time when trailing a series 3-2.
In Game 5, 14 different Panthers registered points, which is the most players to do so in a single playoff game in franchise history. Florida has had 17 different players score a goal this postseason, which breaks a single-postseason franchise record set in 1996.
With his fourth multipoint game of the playoffs, the Panthers’ Sam Reinhart is one of six players to hit that benchmark in the 2025 playoffs.
The Panthers have not trailed for 170:10 of game time since Carter Verhaeghe‘s tying goal 5:17 into the second period of Game 3.
Toronto’s Auston Matthews has zero goals in his past five games, which ties the longest goalless drought of his playoff career (other occurrences were in 2021 and 2023).
Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz is likely out for Game 6, turning the crease back over to Joseph Woll, who gave up five goals on 25 shots in Game 5.
Öcal’s three stars from Thursday
The likely Vezina Trophy winner made 22 saves in a 4-0 win, which is his second straight home shutout in this series.
Scheifele scored the opening goal in Game 5 and added an assist on Nikolaj Ehlers‘ power-play goal in the second. He now has three goals in potential elimination games, which is the most in Thrashers/Jets 2.0 franchise history.
Andersen has been great for the Canes. He gave up just one goal on 19 shots in the series-clinching win over the Capitals, and allowed just six goals total in the Hurricanes’ five games against Washington.
Thursday’s recaps
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 1
CAR wins 4-1, plays winner of TOR-FLA
With a spot in the Eastern Conference finals on the line for Carolina — and a continuation to at least Game 6 the motivation for the Capitals — the two teams battled in an inspired contest. Canes captain Jordan Staal got on the board first, but Washington’s Anthony Beauvillier answered four minutes later. The teams remained tied 1-1 until less than two minutes remaining when Andrei Svechnikov fired one past Logan Thompson. With the net empty, the Caps could not get the equalizer, and Seth Jarvis sealed the deal with an empty-netter with 27 seconds to play. Carolina now awaits the winner of Maple Leafs-Panthers in the conference finals. Full recap.
0:38
Seth Jarvis’ goal secures series win for Canes
Seth Jarvis notches a clutch goal to to secure the series win over the Capitals.
Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 0
DAL leads 3-2 | Game 6 Saturday
Needing a win to remain alive, the Jets got an emphatic one, backstopped by a 22-save shutout by Connor Hellebuyck. Mark Scheifele got Winnipeg on the board first, with his fourth goal of the playoffs at 6:17 of the second period. Nikolaj Ehlers added a power-play tally 2:20 into the third, with Vladislav Namestnikov joining the party at 12:07. With the net empty for Dallas, Ehlers added an empty-netter to cap things off and send Winnipeg fans home happy. Dallas has another chance to finish the series off at home Saturday — if not, Game 7 will be Monday, back in Winnipeg. Full recap.
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Nikolaj Ehlers’ empty-netter secures Game 5 for the Jets
Nikolaj Ehlers scores the game-sealing empty-netter to secure the Game 5 win for the Jets over the Stars.
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