Elon Musk claims Tesla will double US production in next two years, let’s do the math
Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double its electric vehicle production in the US in the next two years.
What would that look like? Let’s do the math.
Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the following:
“As a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next two years.”
This raises many questions, as Musk’s phrasing of the statement suggests that Tesla is planning to add previously unannounced production capacity in response to Trump’s policies.
However, the reality could be different.
What is Tesla’s current production capacity in the US?
We only know Tesla’s installed capacity, which is much different than its actual production rate.
This is Tesla’s latest disclosed global production capacity at the end of 2024:
| Region | Model | Capacity | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | Model S / Model X | 100,000 | Production |
| Model 3 / Model Y | >550,000 | Production | |
| Shanghai | Model 3 / Model Y | >950,000 | Production |
| Berlin | Model Y | >375,000 | Production |
| Texas | Model Y | >250,000 | Production |
| Cybertruck | >125,000 | Production | |
| Cybercab | — | In development | |
| Nevada | Tesla Semi | — | Pilot production |
| TBD | Roadster | — | In development |
In the US, it adds up to 1,025,000 vehicles per year.
In reality, Tesla’s factories are operating at a much lower capacity.
Based on sales and inventory from 2024, Tesla is currently building fewer than 50,000 Model S/X vehicles per year compared to an installed capacity of 100,000 units.
As for Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is currently building them in the US at a rate of about 600,000 units per year compared to claimed installed capacity of over 800,000 units.
Finally, the Cybertruck is being produced at a rate of less than 50,000 units per year compared to an installed capacity of over 125,000 units.
This adds up to Tesla producing 700,000 units per year in the US in 2024.
What will be Tesla’s new capacity?
Considering Musk mentioned that it will happen “within the next two years”, it is unlikely that he is referring to installed capacity.
The CEO is most likely talking about Tesla’s actual production, which would also make sense, especially considering he mentioned “output.”
Tesla currently outputs roughly 700,000 vehicles per year in the US.
Doubling that would mean bringing the total to 1.4 million units per year, which would be an incredible feat, but it’s not entirely a new plan for Tesla.
First off, Tesla has already announced plans to unveil two new, more affordable models this year. These models are going to be built on the same production lines as Model 3/Y, which would potentially enable Tesla to fully utilize its installed capacity for those vehicles.
That’s another 200,000 units already.
As already mentioned in Tesla’s installed capacity table, the company is currently developing its production facility for the Tesla Semi electric truck in Nevada.
Production is expected to start later this year and ramp up next year. Tesla has previously mentioned a goal of 50,000 units per year. It would leave Tesla roughly a year and half to ramp up to this capacity, which is ambitious, but not impossible.
Then there’s the “Cybercab”, which was unveiled last year.
The Cybercab is going to use Tesla’s next-gen vehicle platform and new manufacturing system, which is already being deployed at Gigafactory Texas.
Production is expected to start in 2026, and Musk has mentioned a production capacity of “at least 2 million units per year”. However, he said that this would likely come from more than one factory and it’s unclear if the other factory would be in the US.
Either way, Tesla would need to ramp up Cybercab production in the US to 450,000 units to make Musk’s announcement correct.
It’s fair to note that all of this was part of Tesla’s plans before the US elections, Trump’s coming into power, or the implementation of any policies whatsoever.
Electrek’s Take
Based on my analysis, this announcement is nothing new. It’s just a reiteration of Elon’s plans for Tesla in the US, which were established long before Trump came to power or even before Elon officially backed Trump.
It’s just more “corporate puffery” as Elon’s lawyers would say.
Also, if I wasn’t clear, we are only talking about production here. I doubt Tesla will have the demand for that, especially if Elon remains involved with the company.
The Cybercab doesn’t even have a steering wheel, and if Tesla doesn’t solve self-driving, it will be hard to justify producing 450,000 units per year.
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Robinhood stock hit an all-time high Friday as the financial services platform continued to rip higher this year, along with bitcoin and other crypto stocks.
Robinhood, up more than 160% in 2025, hit an intraday high above $101 before pulling back and closing slightly lower.
The reversal came after a Bloomberg report that JPMorgan plans to start charging fintechs for access to customer bank data, a move that could raise costs across the industry.
For fintech firms that rely on thin margins to offer free or low-cost services to customers, even slight disruptions to their cost structure can have major ripple effects. PayPal and Affirm both ended the day nearly 6% lower following the report.
Despite its stellar year, the online broker is facing several headwinds, with a regulatory probe in Florida, pushback over new staking fees and growing friction with one of the world’s most high-profile artificial intelligence companies.
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier opened a formal investigation into Robinhood Crypto on Thursday, alleging the platform misled users by claiming to offer the lowest-cost crypto trading.
“Robinhood has long claimed to be the best bargain, but we believe those representations were deceptive,” Uthmeier said in a statement.
The probe centers on Robinhood’s use of payment for order flow — a common practice where market makers pay to execute trades — which the AG said can result in worse pricing for customers.
Robinhood Crypto General Counsel Lucas Moskowitz told CNBC its disclosures are “best-in-class” and that it delivers the lowest average cost.
“We disclose pricing information to customers during the lifecycle of a trade that clearly outlines the spread or the fees associated with the transaction, and the revenue Robinhood receives,” added Moskowitz.
Robinhood is also facing opposition to a new 25% cut of staking rewards for U.S. users, set to begin October 1. In Europe, the platform will take a smaller 15% cut.
Staking allows crypto holders to earn yield by locking up their tokens to help secure blockchain networks like ethereum, but platforms often take a percentage of those rewards as commission.
Robinhood’s 25% cut puts it in line with Coinbase, which charges between 25.25% and 35% depending on the token. The cut is notably higher than Gemini’s flat 15% fee.
It marks a shift for the company, which had previously steered clear of staking amid regulatory uncertainty.
Under President Joe Biden‘s administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission cracked down on U.S. platforms offering staking services, arguing they constituted unregistered securities.
With President Donald Trump in the White House, the agency has reversed course on several crypto enforcement actions, dropping cases against major players like Coinbase and Binance and signaling a more permissive stance.
Even as enforcement actions ease, Robinhood is under fresh scrutiny for its tokenized stock push, which is a growing part of its international strategy.
The company now offers blockchain-based assets in Europe that give users synthetic exposure to private firms like OpenAI and SpaceX through special purpose vehicles, or SPVs.
An SPV is a separate entity that acquires shares in a company. Users then buy tokens of the SPV and don’t have shareholder privileges or voting rights directly in the company.
OpenAI has publicly objected, warning the tokens do not represent real equity and were issued without its approval. In an interview with CNBC International, CEO Vlad Tenev acknowledged the tokens aren’t technically equity shares, but said that misses the broader point.
“What’s important is that retail customers have an opportunity to get exposure to this asset,” he said, pointing to the disruptive nature of AI and the historically limited access to pre-IPO companies.
“It is true that these are not technically equity,” Tenev added, noting that institutional investors often gain similar exposure through structured financial instruments.
The Bank of Lithuania — Robinhood’s lead regulator in the EU — told CNBC on Monday that it is “awaiting clarifications” following OpenAI’s statement.
“Only after receiving and evaluating this information will we be able to assess the legality and compliance of these specific instruments,” a spokesperson said, adding that information for investors must be “clear, fair, and non-misleading.”
Tenev responded that Robinhood is “happy to continue to answer questions from our regulators,” and said the company built its tokenized stock program to withstand scrutiny.
“Since this is a new thing, regulators are going to want to look at it,” he said. “And we expect to be scrutinized as a large, innovative player in this space.”
SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently called the model “an innovation” on CNBC’s Squawk Box, offering some validation as Robinhood leans further into its synthetic equity strategy — even as legal clarity remains in flux across jurisdictions.
Despite the regulatory noise, many investors remain focused on Robinhood’s upside, and particularly the political tailwinds.
The company is positioning itself as a key beneficiary of Trump’s newly signed megabill, which includes $1,000 government-seeded investment accounts for newborns. Robinhood said it’s already prototyping an app for the ‘Trump Accounts‘ initiative.
WATCH: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev
Korean auto giants Hyundai and Kia think lower-priced EVs will help minimize the blow from the new US auto tariffs. Hyundai is set to unveil a new entry-level electric car soon, which will be sold alongside the Kia EV2. Will it be the IONIQ 2?
Hyundai and Kia shift to lower-priced EVs
Hyundai and Kia already offer some of the most affordable and efficient electric vehicles on the market, with models like the IONIQ 5 and EV6.
In Europe, Korea, Japan, and other overseas markets, Hyundai sells the Inster EV (sold as the Casper Electric in Korea), an electric city car. The Inster EV starts at about $27,000 (€23,900), but Hyundai will soon offer another lower-priced EV, similar to the upcoming Kia EV2.
The Inster EV is seeing strong initial demand in Europe and Japan. According to a local report (via Newsis), demand for the Casper Electric is so high that buyers are waiting over a year for delivery.
Hyundai is doubling down with plans to introduce an even more affordable EV, rumored to be the IONIQ 2. Xavier Martinet, CEO of Hyundai Motor Europe, said during a recent interview that “The new electric vehicle will be unveiled in the next few months.”
The new EV is expected to be a compact SUV, which will likely resemble the upcoming Kia EV2. Kia will launch the EV2 in Europe and other global regions in 2026.
Hyundai is keeping most details under wraps, but the expected IONIQ 2 is likely to sit below the Kona Electric as a smaller city EV.
More affordable electric cars are on the way
Although nothing is confirmed, it’s expected to be priced at around €30,000 ($35,000), or slightly less than the Kia EV3.
The Kia EV3 starts at €35,990 in Europe and £33,005 in the UK, or about $42,000. Through the first half of the year, Kia’s compact electric SUV is the UK’s most popular EV.
Like the Hyundai IONIQ models and Kia’s other electric vehicles, the EV3 is based on the E-GMP platform. It’s available with two battery packs: 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh, providing a WLTP range of up to 430 km (270 miles) and 599 km (375 miles), respectively.
Hyundai is expected to reveal the new EV at the IAA Mobility show in Munich in September. Meanwhile, Kia is working on a smaller electric car to sit below the EV2 that could start at under €25,000 ($30,000).
According to the report, Hyundai and Kia are doubling down on lower-priced EVs to balance potential losses from the new US auto tariffs.
Despite opening its new EV manufacturing plant in Georgia to boost local production, Hyundai is still expected to expand sales in other regions. An industry insider explained, “Considering the risk of US tariffs, Hyundai’s move to target the European market with small electric vehicles is a natural strategy.”
Although Hyundai is expanding in other markets, it remains a leading EV brand in the US. The IONIQ 5 remains a top-selling EV with over 19,000 units sold through June.
After delivering the first IONIQ 9 models in May, Hyundai reported that over 1,000 models had been sold through the end of June, its three-row electric SUV.
While the $7,500 EV tax credit is still here, Hyundai is offering generous savings with leases for the 2025 IONIQ 5 starting as low as $179 per month. The three-row IONIQ 9 starts at just $419 per month. And Hyundai is even throwing in a free ChargePoint Home Flex Level 2 charger if you buy or lease either model.
Unfortunately, we likely won’t see the entry-level EV2 or IONIQ 2 in the US. However, Kia is set to launch its first electric sedan, the EV4, in early 2026.
Ready to take advantage of the savings while they are still here? You can use our links below to find deals on Hyundai and Kia EV models in your area.
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As EVBox shuts down its Everon business across Europe and North America, EV charging provider Blink Charging is stepping up to offer support to customers caught in the transition.
EVBox’s software arm Everon recently announced it’s winding down operations alongside EVBox’s AC charger business. That’s left a lot of charging station hosts and drivers wondering what comes next. Now, EVBox Everon is pointing its customers toward Blink as a recommended alternative.
Blink says it’s ready to help, whether that means keeping existing chargers up and running or replacing aging gear with new Blink chargers.
“EVBox has played a significant role in the growth of EV charging infrastructure across the UK and Mainland Europe, and we recognize the trust hosts have placed in its solutions,” said Alex Calnan, Blink Charging’s managing director of Europe. “With the recent announcement of Everon’s withdrawal from the EV charging market, it’s natural to have questions about what this means for operations. At Blink, we want to assure Everon customers that we are here to help them navigate this transition.”
Blink says it’s able to offer advice, replacements, and ongoing network management to make the changeover as smooth as possible.
Everon users who switch to Blink will get access to the Blink Network portal via the Blink Charging app. That opens up real-time insight into charger usage and lets hosts set pricing, manage users, and download performance reports.
“At Blink, our charging technology is future-ready,” added Calnan. “With advancements like vehicle-to-grid technology on the horizon, our chargers are built to support the future of electric vehicles and charging habits.”
The company says its chargers are in stock and ready to ship now for any Everon customers looking to make the jump.
In October 2024, France’s Engie announced it would liquidate the entire EVBox group, which it said posted total losses of €800 million since Engie took over in 2017. EVBox is closing its operations in the Netherlands, Germany, and the US.
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