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Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double its electric vehicle production in the US in the next two years.

What would that look like? Let’s do the math.

Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the following:

“As a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next two years.”

This raises many questions, as Musk’s phrasing of the statement suggests that Tesla is planning to add previously unannounced production capacity in response to Trump’s policies.

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However, the reality could be different.

What is Tesla’s current production capacity in the US?

We only know Tesla’s installed capacity, which is much different than its actual production rate.

This is Tesla’s latest disclosed global production capacity at the end of 2024:

Region Model Capacity Status
California Model S / Model X 100,000 Production
Model 3 / Model Y >550,000 Production
Shanghai Model 3 / Model Y >950,000 Production
Berlin Model Y >375,000 Production
Texas Model Y >250,000 Production
Cybertruck >125,000 Production
Cybercab In development
Nevada Tesla Semi Pilot production
TBD Roadster In development

In the US, it adds up to 1,025,000 vehicles per year.

In reality, Tesla’s factories are operating at a much lower capacity.

Based on sales and inventory from 2024, Tesla is currently building fewer than 50,000 Model S/X vehicles per year compared to an installed capacity of 100,000 units.

As for Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is currently building them in the US at a rate of about 600,000 units per year compared to claimed installed capacity of over 800,000 units.

Finally, the Cybertruck is being produced at a rate of less than 50,000 units per year compared to an installed capacity of over 125,000 units.

This adds up to Tesla producing 700,000 units per year in the US in 2024.

What will be Tesla’s new capacity?

Considering Musk mentioned that it will happen “within the next two years”, it is unlikely that he is referring to installed capacity.

The CEO is most likely talking about Tesla’s actual production, which would also make sense, especially considering he mentioned “output.”

Tesla currently outputs roughly 700,000 vehicles per year in the US.

Doubling that would mean bringing the total to 1.4 million units per year, which would be an incredible feat, but it’s not entirely a new plan for Tesla.

First off, Tesla has already announced plans to unveil two new, more affordable models this year. These models are going to be built on the same production lines as Model 3/Y, which would potentially enable Tesla to fully utilize its installed capacity for those vehicles.

That’s another 200,000 units already.

As already mentioned in Tesla’s installed capacity table, the company is currently developing its production facility for the Tesla Semi electric truck in Nevada.

Production is expected to start later this year and ramp up next year. Tesla has previously mentioned a goal of 50,000 units per year. It would leave Tesla roughly a year and half to ramp up to this capacity, which is ambitious, but not impossible.

Then there’s the “Cybercab”, which was unveiled last year.

The Cybercab is going to use Tesla’s next-gen vehicle platform and new manufacturing system, which is already being deployed at Gigafactory Texas.

Production is expected to start in 2026, and Musk has mentioned a production capacity of “at least 2 million units per year”. However, he said that this would likely come from more than one factory and it’s unclear if the other factory would be in the US.

Either way, Tesla would need to ramp up Cybercab production in the US to 450,000 units to make Musk’s announcement correct.

It’s fair to note that all of this was part of Tesla’s plans before the US elections, Trump’s coming into power, or the implementation of any policies whatsoever.

Electrek’s Take

Based on my analysis, this announcement is nothing new. It’s just a reiteration of Elon’s plans for Tesla in the US, which were established long before Trump came to power or even before Elon officially backed Trump.

It’s just more “corporate puffery” as Elon’s lawyers would say.

Also, if I wasn’t clear, we are only talking about production here. I doubt Tesla will have the demand for that, especially if Elon remains involved with the company.

The Cybercab doesn’t even have a steering wheel, and if Tesla doesn’t solve self-driving, it will be hard to justify producing 450,000 units per year.

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Trump’s war on clean energy just killed $6B in red state projects

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Trump’s war on clean energy just killed B in red state projects

Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.

The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update. 

However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.

Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”

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March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.

Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.

However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.

Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.

And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.

A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.

Read more: FREYR kills plans to build a $2.6 billion battery factory in Georgia


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Tesla delays new ‘affordable EV/stripped down Model Y’ in the US, report says

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Tesla delays new 'affordable EV/stripped down Model Y' in the US, report says

Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.

Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.

The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.

Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.

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However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.

In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.

That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.

Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”

Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:

Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.

Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.

The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”

The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.

The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.

In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.

Electrek’s Take

These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.

While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.

I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.

However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.

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Podcast: how Elon killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surge, and Chinese EVs keep killing it

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Podcast: how Elon killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surge, and Chinese EVs keep killing it

In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss how Elon Musk killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surging, how Chinese EVs keep killing it, and more.

The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.

As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.

After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:

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We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.

Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:

Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET):

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