Kings of Command: Breakout pitchers to draft in fantasy baseball
No matter your fantasy baseball strategy, in these days of declining pitching workloads, piecing your pitching staff together is a practically mandatory practice.
The 2024 season was as representative of this as any. It saw the fewest pitchers (21) working at least 180 innings in any non-shortened season in history. Additionally, among the generally undrafted players in ESPN leagues who scored at least 350 fantasy points, 10 of the 14 such players were pitchers.
How might fantasy managers unearth some of this gold on the pitching side? My favorite method is to identify pitchers with potentially elite skill sets, but whose surface statistics — “back of the baseball card” measures like wins and ERA — belie their true talent. They are my annual “Kings of Command,” pitchers who meet a specific set of statistical benchmarks reflecting excellence in the command department.
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion exceeded the MLB averages listed below in all of the following categories during the 2024 season. Starting pitchers must have faced at least 200 batters and relief pitchers must have faced at least 100 batters, while serving in those specific roles.
Starting pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 11.8% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 62.9% or more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.89 or more
Relief pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.7% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 61.6% of more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.61 or more
Put-away rate (K’s per 2-strike count): 19.8% or more
Using those thresholds, 98 pitchers (40 starters and 58 relievers) met all of those criteria in either role. Among them were both Cy Young Award winners (Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal), both Reliever of the Year Award winners, (Emmanuel Clase, Ryan Helsley), each of the top four starting pitchers in terms of both fantasy points scored and Player Rater finish, and all four relief pitchers who earned a Cy Young vote.
The following nine names, however — none of whom were anywhere near as ballyhooed as Skubal, Zack Wheeler or Corbin Burnes or their ilk — also qualified. That’s not to place any of them on an equal (or even a nearby) pedestal as those three fantasy stalwarts, but each possesses underappreciated skills that had them perform statistically beneath our radar in 2024.
Each is a potential bargain in fantasy drafts, and each might be only a minor tweak or adjustment to a specific pitch or his pitch usage, the pitcher’s stance on the pitching rubber, greater fortune on batted balls, or an increased opportunity on his team away from breaking through.
Let’s examine what it might take for each to emerge. My “Kings of Command” are listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2024 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals using ESPN’s standard scoring.
David Festa, Minnesota Twins
2024 Player Rater: SP172/745th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 107 (SP166)
His strengths: Between his 95-mph fastball and his slider and changeup, Festa has legitimate swing-and-miss stuff, generating the third-best swinging strike rate (16.4%) among Triple-A pitchers last season in addition to meeting this column’s qualifications. Across his final 10 starts with the Twins, he held opposing hitters to a .228 batting average and struck out 29.2%.
How he could break out: Festa introduced a new sinker to his repertoire, which could help him improve against right-handers (.332 wOBA allowed in the majors, 17 points higher than he had in Triple-A), and is pitching entirely out of the stretch this spring. Merely cracking the Twins rotation might fuel a breakthrough, but progress with either the new sinker or his slider (29% whiff rate, 6% beneath the league’s average) would ultimately fuel his biggest step forward.
Robert Garcia, Texas Rangers
2024 Player Rater: RP123/398th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 147 (RP126)
His strengths: A sneaky pickup in December’s Nathaniel Lowe trade, Garcia had a 2.39 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score) last season as a member of the Washington Nationals bullpen, 11th-best among 160 relief pitchers with at least 50 innings. Thanks to an electric changeup, he held right-handed hitters to a .272 wOBA (league average for lefties was .314) with a 31.1% strikeout rate, alleviating any worry about platoon splits or a situational role.
How he could break out: Better luck would go a long way toward vaulting Garcia up the fantasy leaderboard, as he had a ghastly .331 BABIP (.290 league average for relievers) and second-worst-among-relievers 57.2% left-on-base (LOB) rate. A crack at the late innings, in what’s largely a wide-open Rangers bullpen, would also help.
Chris Martin, Texas Rangers
2024 Player Rater: RP91/331st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 143 (RP133)
His strengths: He has long been one of the better relievers in baseball, as his 2.66 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 66 holds are all top-10 numbers among relievers with at least 200 IP over the past five seasons combined. Martin possesses exceptional control, as his 2.9% walk rate during that same time span leads all relievers. Plus, he has never issued more than eight walks in a single MLB season.
How he could break out: Martin is the most logical choice to close for the Rangers, but better luck in the health department is imperative if he’s to retain the job. He has made seven trips to the IL during the past five seasons — including multiple stints in three of them — and only once made as many as 60 appearances (2022). That health history opens the door for Garcia to potentially emerge.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
2024 Player Rater: SP98/405th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 209 (SP104)
His strengths: He has two potentially elite strikeout pitches in his slider and changeup, both of which generated at least a 43% whiff rate in 2024 (MLB rates on each were 34% and 31%). Through two months, he appeared to be on the verge of a major breakthrough, posting a 1.92 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his first 10 starts. However, shoulder issues cost him nearly two months during the second half, interrupting his momentum.
How he could break out: Olson’s command of his four-seam fastball and changeup waned after his hot start and will need correction if he’s to recapture the promise he showed early last year. The fastball in particular needs improvement, as it generated the sixth-worst whiff rate (13%) among pitchers who threw at least as many as he did the past two seasons, which is why it’s encouraging to see him throwing it a full mph faster (95.4) in his two Statcast-measured spring starts thus far.
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins
2024 Player Rater: SP174/751st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 127 (SP151)
His strengths: He’s a master of control, as among 113 pitchers with at least as many as his 82 career starts over the past six seasons, his 5.0% walk rate ranks sixth, his 66.4% first-pitch strike rate ranks 11th and his 52.6% in-zone rate ranks 12th. Paddack’s changeup has also shown an ability to be top shelf when he’s healthy and possesses full command of it, including 2020, when Statcast graded it as the league’s fourth-best-performing changeup.
How he could break out: Health, health, health. Paddack has had only one professional season with as many as 120 innings pitched, while averaging just 58 IP over the last four. The Twins seem confident enough in him to likely hand him a season-opening rotation spot, but he’ll first need to stay on the mound long enough to make it worth discussing his next breakout ingredient (better luck on batted balls).
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Player Rater: SP78/317th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 317 (SP49)
His strengths: A “pepper the strike zone” control artist — his 68.4% first-pitch strike and 53.2% in-zone rates since the date of his MLB debut rank fourth and 14th — Pfaadt has a 5.5% walk rate between the majors and minors over the past four seasons combined. He also has a four-seamer/sweeper/sinker combination that is flat-out nasty against right-handed hitters (26.6% K rate, versus 20.5% against lefties).
How he could break out: Better luck is the easy answer, as Pfaadt’s 64.5% strand rate and .315 BABIP last season were second- and fifth-worst among ERA qualifiers, but the true path to greatness is a stronger pitch mix against left-handed hitters. Corrections to those rates could vault him into the position’s top 40. Reaching the top 20 requires tweaks to his four-seamer or curveball to counter lefties, who have a wOBA 47 points higher against him through two seasons.
A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Player Rater: RP58/210th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 206 (RP59)
His strengths: Puk’s miserable four-start stint with the Miami Marlins to begin last season, coupled with the shoulder injury that cost him three-plus weeks immediately thereafter, masked how truly brilliant his finish to 2024 was. Over the final three months, he had an 0.99 ERA, a 43.6% strikeout rate, a .128 BAA, a 1.35 FIP to back the performance up, and a 5.3% walk rate to match the marked improvement he showed in terms of control the season before.
How he could break out: His path to fantasy greatness lies in his bullpen role, as he needs to be in place to pile up saves, or at least holds. Puk’s 95-96 mph fastball and slider generate excellent whiff rates, fueling a hefty number of strikeouts, and it’s an easy case to make that he and Justin Martinez should form a formidable, underrated one-two punch at the back end of the Diamondbacks’ bullpen.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Player Rater: SP46/191st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 342 (SP39)
His strengths: Improvements he made to his changeup in 2023 have quickly transformed him into one of the game’s more underrated pitchers. Statcast graded Sanchez with the league’s best changeup last season and his 91 strikeouts with them were the most by any pitcher. His control has improved markedly during that same time (13th-ranked 5.2% walk rate from 2023-24), and his heavy ground ball lean (58.3% rate last year) minimizes his risk of damaging innings.
How he could break out: He’s kind of doing it already, having fanned 12 out of 30 hitters through his three spring starts. Sanchez, a pitcher constantly refining his pitch repertoire, has most notably seen his sinker go from a 92.1 mph average velocity in 2023, to 94.5 in 2024, to 96.9 in the two of those starts measured by Statcast. He’ll take a big leap forward if that fuels even a hint of a higher whiff rate with the pitch.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
2024 Player Rater: SP47/195th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 279 (SP67)
His strengths: Schwellenbach, a high school and college shortstop (plus Nebraska’s 2021 closer) who didn’t even make his first pitching start until 21 months after being drafted due to Tommy John surgery, sure looked like a future fantasy ace in his 2024 rookie year. He flashed five-plus pitches, two of which had at least a 40% whiff rate (curveball and splitter), sported a 4.6% walk rate in the majors, and posted a 2.73 ERA and 27.5% K rate across his 13 second-half starts.
How he could break out: Most every question Schwellenbach faces as he enters his sophomore season relates to how a pitcher with 65 total professional innings across his first 2½ years fares after a 168⅔ inning campaign like he had last year. Fortunately, he’s showing no ill effects of the workload spike during spring training. More cutter or curveball reliance against lefties, to narrow what was a 66-point wOBA split, would be a nice added touch.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
CHICAGO — Chicago White Sox great Paul Konerko got a present from one No. 14 to another in honor of the 20th anniversary of the 2005 World Series championship run: a jersey signed by noted Chicago fan Pope Leo XIV.
Cardinal Blase Cupich, the archbishop of Chicago, presented Konerko a jersey with the new pontiff’s signature on the back during a ceremony prior to the game against the Cleveland Guardians. It had the six-time All-Star’s last name and “Pope Leo” above the No. 14.
Robert Prevost became the first pope from the U.S. in the history of the Catholic Church when he was elected on May 8. The Chicago-born missionary, who took the name Leo XIV, is a White Sox fan.
Prevost attended the 2005 World Series opener against Houston in Chicago. He watched from Section 140, Row 19, Seat 2 as the White Sox beat the Astros 5-3 on the way to a four-game sweep and their first title since 1917.
In May, the team unveiled a graphic installation near the seat paying tribute to Pope Leo and that moment. The pillar artwork features a waving Pope Leo XIV, along with a picture from the TV broadcast of the future pope sitting with good friend Ed Schmit and his grandson, Eddie.
Members of the 2005 team are in Chicago this weekend to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the championship run. The White Sox debuted uniform patches honoring late closer Bobby Jenks, who died last week in Portugal, where he was being treated for stomach cancer. On Friday, the team unveiled a statue of former ace Mark Buehrle.
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