Welcome to MLB Opening Week, baseball fans!

After a chaotic offseason, one thing is clear heading into the new season: Everyone else is chasing the reigning World Series champions at the top of our initial 2025 rankings.

Whether your team is a legit threat to knock off the Los Angeles Dodgers or you are just hoping your team can contend, we’ve got everything you need for the season ahead as 28 of the 30 MLB teams take the field for Opening Day on Thursday.

We asked our MLB experts to rank every team from 1 to 30 in our first Power Rankings of the new season, and ESPN baseball writers Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield teamed up to provide a breakdown of what to expect this season, along with Doolittle’s win-loss projections and playoff odds for all 30 teams.

Jump to team:

American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR

National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH

Tier 1: The almighty Dodgers

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected record: 102-60 (97.7% playoff odds | 28.4% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The single-season wins record.

Miguel Rojas put it out into the universe last month when he said he believes his team can win 120 games with good injury luck. The record is 116, reached by the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners. L.A. surpassing that is not an outrageous thought. The Dodgers, after another offseason spending spree, have assembled one of the most talented rosters of the modern era to defend their World Series title. And only three years ago, they finished the 2022 season with 111 victories. On paper, the 2025 Dodgers are even better. But the goal is to win the World Series, not 117 regular-season games. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Let’s take an awards inventory of the 2025 Dodgers. Among those on either the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list, there are six MVP awards (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw), five Cy Youngs (Kershaw, Blake Snell), one Rookie of the Year (Ohtani) and a Manager of the Year (Dave Roberts). Betts is more than capable of challenging for another MVP award. Roki Sasaki is likely the preseason front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year. In the Cy Young race, take your pick between Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

But let’s face it: Ohtani is the unchallenged best player in the game right now, and with his return to the mound this season, he doesn’t have to match last year’s unprecedented offensive production to win MVP No. 4. It’s his award to lose. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: What do we predict for the Dodgers? 117 wins? Sixty home runs from Ohtani? A third Cy Young Award for Blake Snell? It’s all on the table. But let’s go with this: the lowest team ERA+ of the live ball era (since 1920). By the way, the three lowest marks in this category belong to the 2020 Dodgers (146), the 2022 Dodgers (145) and the 2021 Dodgers (140). The 1906 Cubs hold the post-1900 record at 151. — Schoenfield

How they can rule the sport (again): Major League Baseball is a quarter century removed from its last repeat champion, but the Dodgers might be more prepared to pull it off than anyone. Their rotation was their only weakness in October, and they have since doubled down by adding Snell and Sasaki (not to mention getting Tyler Glasnow and Yamamoto back healthy). They also strengthened the best lineup in the sport and fortified a bullpen that already looked dominant. Outside of the randomness of the postseason, the only thing standing in the Dodgers’ way of a repeat might be injuries to key players. And given the health of their farm system, perhaps not even that. — Gonzalez

Tier 2: Biggest threats to L.A.’s throne

Projected record: 96-66 (91.1% playoff odds | 14.4% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The returns of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider.

Nightmare seasons usually don’t conclude with 89 wins and a playoff appearance, but Atlanta’s 2024 campaign was an exception. The Braves had the worst injury luck in baseball, and it started with their two franchise pillars. First, Strider underwent Tommy John surgery in April, two starts into his third season. A month later, Acuña suffered a season-ending ACL tear in his left knee — three years after tearing his right ACL.

Both players are expected back early in the season. Strider could return by the end of April and Acuña by the end of May. The Braves proved they can reach the playoffs without the two stars. A deep October run, however, is unlikely if their best players are not contributing in a loaded National League. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: With Acuña’s MVP case likely to be undermined by a late start to the 2025 season and (maybe) a lower stolen-base total, Chris Sale remains the Braves’ most likely winner of a major award.

The problem for Sale isn’t so much what he does but the competition in the National League. Sale, Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes lead the way but Corbin Burnes is back in the Senior Circuit. Blake Snell is still around, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is poised to make the leap and both Sandy Alcantara and Strider are back from injury and looking as filthy as ever during the spring. If Sale wins it again, he would become the first back-to-back Cy Young winner since Jacob deGrom a half-decade ago. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Spencer Schwellenbach has an impressive first full season, especially for a pitcher without a lot of pitching experience given he was a two-way player at Nebraska. His fastball averages 96, he has a six-pitch repertoire, and he throws strikes. He finishes in the top five of National League Cy Young voting. — Schoenfield

How they can join L.A in the top tier: Acuña noticeably wasn’t himself when he returned from his first ACL tear in 2022. His explosiveness wasn’t quite there, his surgically repaired right knee continually ached. It wasn’t until the following season, an MVP-winning campaign in 2023, that Acuña was fully back. This time, the Braves are hoping to avoid that bridge year by giving Acuña two additional months to recover. Atlanta’s pitching staff was tied with the Seattle Mariners for the major league lead in ERA last season, but the offense — 12th in OPS, 15th in runs — lagged behind. If Acuña is a catalyst at the top of the lineup, that will change dramatically. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 89-73 (68.9% playoff odds | 8.7% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Can this core finally break through and win a championship?

The Phillies have reached the playoffs the past three seasons. Their playoff exits have come earlier and earlier each year: in the World Series in 2022, in the NLCS in 2023 and in the NLDS last season. Philadelphia, with 13 players in their 30s on its projected Opening Day roster, has one of the oldest rosters in baseball. Zack Wheeler and J.T. Realmuto are 34. Nick Castellanos is 33. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are 32. Trea Turner and Aaron Nola are 31. Realmuto and Schwarber are slated to reach free agency this winter. This season could be, with Cristopher Sanchez‘s expected improvement and the addition of Jesus Luzardo in the rotation, Philly’s best shot to win it all. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Zack Wheeler has been a bastion of dominance and consistency alike during his half-decade with the Phillies. He’s been knocking on the Cy Young door after each outstanding season, finishing second twice and sixth once during the past four years.

The early tide is with wunderkind Paul Skenes over on the other side of Pennsylvania. So for Wheeler, it’s a question of whether he has yet another gear in his game. Which isn’t easy, given Wheeler is coming off a season of 16 wins, 2.57 ERA, 224 strikeouts and miniscule 0.955 WHIP. In other words, it’s hard to be better than Wheeler has been for the Phillies, and if he keeps doing it, one of these years he’ll bring home the trophy. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Not only do all five starting pitchers throw at least 162 innings — the last teams to do that were the Cubs and Blue Jays in 2016 — but all five end up with an ERA under 3.50. The last team to meet both criteria: the 2006 White Sox. Oh, and since we’re predicting good health, that means rookie Andrew Painter will be the closer in the postseason. — Schoenfield

How they can join L.A in the top tier: The Phillies sent two non-closing relievers to the All-Star Game last summer. One of them, Jeff Hoffman, has since joined the Toronto Blue Jays. The other, Matt Strahm, is dealing with shoulder inflammation. Then there’s Carlos Estevez, who helped take down the ninth inning after being acquired at midseason and has since left via free agency, joining the Kansas City Royals.

The Phillies’ offense is menacing and their rotation looks deep, but they need to shore up the back end of their bullpen if they hope to compete in the Dodgers’ territory. They need Orion Kerkering to take another step forward, Jose Alvarado to resemble his 2023 self and Jordan Romano, non-tendered this offseason, to find himself. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 90-72 (73.5% playoff odds | 6.0% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Juan Soto‘s transition from the Bronx to Queens.

Soto became an instant fan favorite in his only season with the Yankees. The Bleacher Creatures loved him, and he loved them back. He partnered with Aaron Judge for one of the greatest one-two punches in history. He sent the Yankees to the World Series with a clutch home run in Game 5 of the ALCS. All along, his free agency loomed. That, after playing for three teams in three seasons, is finally behind him. He now has a long-term home. The Mets won the offseason by signing Soto away from their crosstown rivals after perhaps his best season. Will that translate to enough wins to reach the postseason in a crowded NL? — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Soto did his MVP candidacy no favors by selecting the league that Shohei Ohtani plays in, but if anyone is likely to post numbers so overwhelming that it makes the two-way legend an also-ran, it’s Soto. Soto has been close, finishing in the top 10 four times in the NL and third in his lone AL campaign.

Soto is entering his age-26 season — yes, he’s still in the early part of his prime — and has a 160 OPS+ and an average of 34 homers, 132 walks and 106 runs over the past three seasons. It still doesn’t feel like Soto has hit his power ceiling yet, and if does while hitting between Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, the results may be truly awe-inspiring. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Mike Piazza is the only Mets player with a 1.000 OPS (1.012 in 2000). Soto had a .989 OPS with the Yankees, but this year he goes a little higher and beat Piazza’s mark. And with Soto on base so much in front of him, Pete Alonso also breaks his own club record of 131 RBIs set in 2022. — Schoenfield

How they can join L.A in the top tier: One thing that stood out about David Stearns’ first season atop baseball operations was the success stories within his starting rotation. Sean Manaea dropped his release point, threw across his body and finished 11th in National League Cy Young Award voting; Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and David Peterson combined for a 3.59 ERA in 83 regular-season starts.

Extracting value from veteran starting pitchers can be a dicey proposition, but Stearns must do it again — most notably with Manaea, Frankie Montas and converted reliever Clay Holmes, a trio that signed for a combined $147 million this offseason. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 87-75 (58.4% playoff odds | 3.0% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Corbin Carroll reestablishing himself as one of the sport’s brightest young stars.

For four months, Carroll’s sophomore season was a stunning disappointment. The outfielder, a unanimous NL Rookie of the Year Award winner in 2023, batted .215 with eight home runs and a .664 OPS in 109 games. The struggles were so troubling that he was dropped to eighth in the batting order for the last two days of July. Then he flipped the switch. From Aug. 1 on, Carroll hit .263 with 14 home runs, six doubles, six triples, 15 steals and a .918 OPS over his final 53 games. More of that and Carroll will find himself in the MVP race. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Corbin. The Diamondbacks have two really good ones, and while Corbin Carroll might break out as an MVP candidate in any given season from now into the foreseeable future, we have to go with Corbin Burnes here.

The NL Cy Young derby is shaping up to be a crowded one, but Burnes is on a streak of five straight top-10 finishes (four in the NL) and one win. Carroll and Ketel Marte could both have MVP-level seasons and still get swamped by Shohei Ohtani in the balloting. Jordan Lawlar has Rookie of the Year ability but will start the season in the minors and has no clear path to a near-term every-day role in the majors, though he could force his way into one. Still, Burnes’ track record is too solid to ignore. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Ketel Marte finished third in the MVP voting in 2024. Corbin Carroll finished fifth as a rookie in 2023 and had a strong second half last year, plus a strong spring. Both finish in the top 10 in the MVP voting — and the Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs scored for the second year in a row. — Schoenfield

How they can join L.A in the top tier: Carroll suddenly became one of the worst hitters in the sport for four months last season. The D-backs’ offense lagged right along with him. A return to form from the D-backs’ best player will go a long way toward making up for the loss of Joc Pederson, whose production wasn’t necessarily replaced. So would a healthy Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez, who combined to make only 23 starts last season. But just as important will be the back end of the D-backs’ bullpen, where veteran lefty A.J. Puk needs to continue the dominant form he displayed down the stretch and young, explosive righty Justin Martinez needs to take another leap. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 88-74 (64.7% playoff odds | 5.9% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: If the Orioles’ starting pitching is good enough to adequately complement their talented core of position players.

Last year, they addressed the need for an ace by acquiring Corbin Burnes right before spring training. Burnes, as expected, signed elsewhere this winter, leaving Baltimore with a void atop the rotation again. Its response was to sign 41-year-old Charlie Morton, who has defied Father Time, and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano, who is transitioning to the majors after 12 seasons in NPB.

Neither is projected to be a No. 1 starter, but the Orioles view Grayson Rodriguez as the answer. Problem is Rodriguez, who missed time last season with shoulder and lat injuries, was shut down with elbow inflammation this spring and will begin the season on the injured list. For now, Zach Eflin is the team’s top starter. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Gunnar Henderson graduated from the Rookie of the Year award in 2023 to a top-five MVP finish in 2024. He has been limited this spring by injury, but the trajectory seems clear.

Still just 23, Henderson is so good already across the board that it’s hard to see where his gains might come. A BABIP spike could push him into the range of a .300/.400/.600 slash line. Given his position and overall skills, that might be enough.

He would still have Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. to contend with, and Witt has the revenge factor going for him since Henderson was chosen over him for the cover of this year’s edition of MLB The Show. It’s on. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Orioles have a crowded position-player roster, but top prospect Samuel Basallo eventually will hit his way out of Triple-A and into the lineup as the regular DH in the second half — and belt 15 home runs, including two 475-foot blasts that establish him as one of the future power kings in the sport. — Schoenfield

How they can join L.A in the top tier: The Orioles will be an offensive force, and with Felix Bautista back to take down the ninth inning, they’ll be much better equipped to hold leads late. The question is how effective they’ll be at turning games over to their high-leverage relievers. Three things need to happen: Grayson Rodriguez needs to be healthy, Kyle Bradish needs to come back strong in the second half, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias needs to leverage his young position players to add another impact starter before the trade deadline. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 89-73 (68.3% playoff odds | 6.5% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Hal Steinbrenner’s willingness to invest more money on the roster.

Last month, Steinbrenner said the club’s payroll stood between $307 million and $308 million — just below last season’s total of $310 million. Cot’s estimates a slightly different number: $304.7 million, which ranks fourth in the majors according to its data. Regardless, the Yankees are above the highest luxury tax threshold of $301 million, and any dollar spent over $301 million comes with a 60% surcharge. Steinbrenner also said last month that he has not ordered the front office to drop the payroll below $301 million, but he questioned whether a payroll that high is smart business.

At the time, the Yankees were trying to trade Marcus Stroman to clear his $18.5 million salary and spend the money elsewhere. Back then, their most glaring need was a third baseman. That list has since grown after Gerrit Cole was lost for the season and Luis Gil went down for at least three months, putting a dent in the starting pitching depth and putting Stroman into the rotation. Contending for a title — and avoiding wasting another of Judge’s prime years — will likely now require adding payroll by the trade deadline. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Even if Cole had not been injured, and even if Juan Soto had returned, the easy answer would still be Judge. Now that answer is a no-brainer. Judge has won two of the AL’s past three MVP trophies, and the departure of Soto to the NL at least clears away one prime competitor.

If Judge puts up 2022 or 2024 numbers (it’s a good debate about which season was better across the board), he would do so on a Yankees squad more reliant on him than ever. And if the Yankees succeed despite their ominous early injury woes, that would make Judge awfully hard to beat no matter what the likes of Witt and Henderson might do. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Without Cole for the season and minus Gil for several months, it could be 2023 all over again: That Yankees team finished just 82-80 and was outscored. Let’s go two wins worse and the Yankees finish 80-82 for their first losing season since 1992. — Schoenfield

How they can join L.A in the top tier: The Yankees need a lot to go right, which sounds weird given where they were last fall but makes sense when you consider what has happened since. Cody Bellinger needs to fall in love with the short right-field porch; Giancarlo Stanton needs to recover from his two tennis elbows in time to make an impact on 2025; Paul Goldschmidt needs to turn back time just a little bit; Max Fried needs to pitch like a true ace; Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt need to step up behind him; and, inevitably, GM Brian Cashman needs to find another impact starter. — Gonzalez

Tier 3: They could be contenders

Projected record: 87-75 (61.0% playoff odds | 5.2% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Jacob deGrom, once the best pitcher in the world, might retake the title — if he can stay healthy.

Between 2018 and 2019, DeGrom’s two Cy Young seasons, the right-hander compiled a 2.05 ERA and 524 strikeouts over 64 starts. Injuries limited him to 27 outings over the next two years, but the Rangers gave him a five-year, $185 million contract after the 2022 season anyway. With 41 innings in two seasons, the return so far hasn’t been worth it. But that could change. DeGrom, 36, is healthy and determined to lay off the gas to increase his chances of remaining healthy. If he does, the Rangers just might be the favorites to win the American League. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Since DeGrom won his Cy Youngs in 2018 and 2019, he has pitched a total of 265⅓ innings during the six seasons played since, including the shortened 2020 season. It’s been only 22 years since one pitcher (Roy Halladay in 2003) threw that many innings in one season. But during those innings, deGrom has gone 18-8 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.80 FIP while striking out — you’d better take a seat before reading this number — 411 batters. He looked terrific after coming back late last season, and he’s looked really good this spring.

DeGrom hasn’t cracked triple digits in innings since that 2019 Cy Young season, but if he gets to 150-160, is there any chance he isn’t among the front-runners? Just as crucial: The Rangers’ already short-handed rotation needs deGrom badly for as many innings as he can provide. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Wyatt Langford was rushed to the majors in 2024 after just 200 plate appearances in the minors in his draft year of 2023. He held his own, but look for even bigger things in 2025: 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 100 RBIs and a top-10 MVP finish. — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: The Rangers went from third to 23rd in OPS from 2023 to 2024, even though they returned virtually the same lineup. Adding Joc Pederson as their designated hitter against righties should help, but the 2025 Rangers need more production from Adolis Garcia (94 OPS-plus in 2024), Marcus Semien (100 OPS-plus) and Josh Jung (103). Their pitching staff is not good enough to hold up a mediocre offense. The strength of this Rangers team needs to come in the run-scoring department. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 84-78 (45.6% playoff odds | 2.5% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Rafael Devers‘ unhappiness was the answer here until he acquiesced and accepted his move off third base. So we’ll go with Boston’s big three.

Roman Anthony (No. 2), Marcelo Mayer (No. 4) and Kristian Campbell (No. 26) all landed near the top of Kiley McDaniel’s top 100 prospect rankings. Campbell, who could be the team’s Opening Day second baseman, should be the first to make his debut. His readiness is part of the reason the Red Sox prefer to have Bregman at third base instead of moving him to second. Anthony, a 20-year-old outfielder, is widely considered the top prospect in baseball outside of Roki Sasaki. Mayer, 22, is the club’s future shortstop. It’s a trio the Red Sox may build around for years to come. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Garrett Crochet dazzled in 2024 for baseball’s worst-ever team but pitched much of the season with his workload artificially tamped down so he wouldn’t damage himself before the White Sox could deal him. Well, now Crochet has changed Sox and the governor is off.

According to ESPN BET, the preseason favorites in the AL Cy Young race are all lefties: Crochet, Cole Ragans and last year’s winner, Tarik Skubal. In terms of K-BB%, Crochet was the most dominant of the three. This time, he’s poised to do it for more innings with a much, much, much better team around him. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: No team has ever won all three outfield Gold Gloves, but the trio of Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu can do just that. Abreu won in right field as a rookie. Duran was second among all outfielders in defensive runs saved in 2024 although would have to beat out three-time winner Steven Kwan in left. And Rafaela has Gold Glove range in center if he hits enough to hold off Anthony (or isn’t needed again at shortstop). — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: Red Sox relievers combined for a 4.36 ERA last season, sixth highest in the majors. Craig Breslow is attempting to address that with Aroldis Chapman, who will pitch at age 37, and Liam Hendriks, a 36-year-old right-hander who has made just five appearances since 2022 and spent the 2024 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Chapman and Hendriks will probably form Boston’s new late-inning combo, and they’ll have to be effective. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 84-78 (44.4% playoff odds | 1.8% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The push to dethrone the Dodgers.

San Diego gave the Dodgers their stiffest test in October, falling in five games in the NLDS after squandering a 2-1 series lead. Another opportunity isn’t out of the question. The Padres lost key pieces over the winter — Tanner Scott, Jurickson Profar and Kyle Higashioka all signed elsewhere — and they’ll likely be without Joe Musgrove for all of 2025, but there is enough talent on the roster to contend.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is a superstar. Manny Machado is a future Hall of Famer. Jackson Merrill is on a path to stardom. Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth are proven veterans. Michael King, Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta and Yu Darvish (when he returns from injury) make up a top-tier rotation. The Padres, health permitting, could be dangerous in October. They just have to get there first. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: The Padres had a pair of near-misses in the awards derby last season, with manager Mike Shildt finishing second in the NL Manager of the Year balloting and Merrill serving as Paul Skenes’ runner-up in the Rookie of the Year chase.

Both could figure in awards races again, but look for this to be the year that Tatis fully returns to the luster he enjoyed after back-to-back top-five MVP finishes at ages 21 and 22. Call it a hunch. Tatis’ Statcast-based expected numbers in 2024 marked him as a top-five hitter in the NL. That quality of contact wasn’t fully reflected in his traditional numbers, but the bottom line is that Tatis was hitting the ball as hard as he was when he homered 42 times in 2021. He’s ready to explode. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Twenty-game winners are rare these days, and the Padres have had just three in franchise history — Randy Jones in 1975 and 1976, and Gaylord Perry in 1978 — but King, who had a 2.03 ERA over his final 14 starts, makes it a fourth. That puts him in the thick of the Cy Young race. — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: With the Padres, it’s quite simple — their stars need to be stars. That means Tatis and Machado need to put up MVP-caliber numbers, Bogaerts needs to resemble something closer to the hitter he was in Boston, Arraez needs to keep setting the tone at the top of the lineup, and Darvish and Cease need to stay healthy.

The Padres scaled back their payroll in the wake of owner Peter Seidler’s death in 2023, and recent trades from A.J. Preller have dried the upper levels of their farm system, so there isn’t much margin for error beyond their highest earners. Given the ages of some of those aforementioned players, their window might be closing fast. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 89-73 (68.7% playoff odds | 5.4% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Whether the Astros’ dynastic run is indeed over.

Houston didn’t reach the ALCS last season for the first time since 2016. It then let Alex Bregman, a franchise icon, sign with the Red Sox, leaving Jose Altuve as the only player left from Houston’s first championship team in 2017, and traded All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs a year before he reached free agency.

The Astros still should compete for their eighth AL West title in nine years. They still have Altuve, though he’s a left fielder now, and Yordan Alvarez, one of the sport’s most dangerous hitters, as their offensive engines. They have Hunter Brown, one of baseball’s top young pitchers, and Framber Valdez, a premier left-hander who’s pitching for a contract next winter, at the top of their rotation. The bullpen features closer Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu setting him up. There’s still plenty of talent. But the gap in the AL West has closed. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: The ongoing iteration of the fading Astros dynasty leaves Yordan Alvarez as the club’s top performer with the gap between him and everyone else larger than it has ever been. But this is about “most likely award winner” and with Alvarez DHing most of the time, it’s hard to see how he could overcome the likes of Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. in the MVP race. It could happen, of course, if Alvarez stays on the field for 145-150 games.

Still, let’s go out on a limb and tout Cam Smith as a Rookie of the Year possibility. Smith has a clear path to regular playing time in right field, even if he doesn’t break camp with the big league team, and he has mashed at every turn as a professional, including this spring. If Smith were to go on an awards-worthy tear, the howls over Bregman’s departure might fade pretty quickly. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The best 1-2-3 starting pitching trio in the American League won’t be in Seattle or Texas or anywhere else but in Houston with Valdez, Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. That trio won 33 games in 2024 but will win 45 in 2025 and combine for 13 WAR. — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: It all comes down to five names: Isaac Paredes, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena, Brown and Arrighetti. What prolonged the Astros’ run was continually developing productive major leaguers, and they desperately need their younger players to take big steps forward around their veterans this season. There are still elements of a championship team in place here, even without Bregman and Tucker. But it rests on the 20-somethings who will be a crucial part of this. — Gonzalez

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12. Seattle Mariners

Projected record: 84-78 (46.8% playoff odds | 2.5% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The Mariners’ offense.

Seattle’s starting rotation led the majors in ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average and opponent OPS (among other categories) last season, and the club still managed to fall short of a postseason berth. How? The offense was that putrid for five months.

Seattle ranked 27th in runs scored and 28th in OPS while compiling the most strikeouts in the majors through Aug. 21. Manager Scott Servais was fired the next day. Dan Wilson replaced him and appointed Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez as his hitting coach. From there, Seattle ranked sixth in runs scored and fourth in OPS across baseball through the end of the season. If the Mariners can continue where they left off with star center fielder Julio Rodríguez, they should make their second postseason appearance since 2001. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: All five members of the Seattle rotation rank among the top 21 AL Cy Young candidates at ESPN BET, led by Logan Gilbert (tied for fourth). Since we don’t want to cop out with a “Seattle starter” pick, we’ll go with Gilbert, in part because George Kirby has a bum shoulder and will start the season on the IL.

Gilbert is a workhorse, by current standards, whose pitch efficiency allows him to work deep into games. A little luck in the home-run-to-fly-ball category and he could easily push his ERA under three while putting up 200 innings once again. If the Mariners actually scored any runs, he might stand out in the wins category as well, as opposed to last year’s 9-12 mark that said nothing about the way he threw. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The best starter on the Mariners won’t be Gilbert or Kirby or Luis Castillo or Bryce Miller, but Bryan Woo. In 22 starts as a sophomore in 2024, he went 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA, walking just 13 batters and holding opponents to a .237 OBP — the second-lowest OBP allowed among pitchers with 100 innings behind only Gilbert (.236). His improvement against lefties makes him the real deal — he just needs to stay healthy for 30 starts. — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: In 2022, Julio Rodriguez posted a .544 OPS in April. In 2023, he went into the All-Star break with a .249/.310/.411 slash line. In 2024, he accumulated just seven home runs through the month of June. The Mariners’ offensive struggles begin and end with Rodriguez, who’s incredibly talented but has yet to put together a fully dominant season. If they hope to win their first AL West title in 24 years, he needs to do it now. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 84-78 (51.2% playoff odds | 1.5% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: If Chicago will still be playing in October.

The Cubs last reached the postseason in 2020. They last won a postseason game in 2017. There is real pressure on the North Side to produce October success. Nobody is feeling it more than Jed Hoyer. The team’s president of baseball operations hasn’t built a playoff team since replacing Theo Epstein as the front office frontman in November 2020 and is in the final year of his contract. The Cubs haven’t invested as much in their payroll in recent years as some of their big-market peers, but they spend more than their NL competition every year. Add the aggressive move to acquire Kyle Tucker knowing he could leave in free agency after this season, and 2025 is a crucial season for the Cubs. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Invariably, a rookie position player who opens a season as a starter and keeps the job is going to enter the Rookie of the Year conversation. The award so often is based as much on opportunity (i.e., volume) as it is on performance, provided the latter is of enough quality that you can compile the former.

That’s where Matt Shaw comes in. The Cubs’ Opening Day third baseman has a chance to become the long-term answer at a position that has so often bedeviled Chicago during the decades since Ron Santo was traded to the White Sox in 1973 for, among others, Steve Stone. If the Cubs meet their expectation — which is to win the NL Central — and Shaw holds down his position all season, he’ll have a shot at postseason honors. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Cubs have had just one 30/30 player in franchise history — Sammy Sosa, who did it twice. Kyle Tucker not only gets there, but goes 40/30 (40 home runs and 30 stolen bases) and captures the non-Shohei Ohtani MVP Award, finishing second in MVP voting to the Dodgers’ two-way star. — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: The Cubs scored the sixth-fewest runs in 2024, ahead of only the Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates and Athletics. That is not good company. Bregman won’t be there to help fix it, and Tucker can’t do it alone. The Cubs need more production from their middle-infield combo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner, and they need younger hitters such as Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya, Shaw and Michael Busch to take steps forward. In that division, their pitching staff should be good enough to do its part. — Gonzalez

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14. Kansas City Royals

Projected record: 85-77 (48.8% playoff odds | 2.3% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Bobby Witt Jr. cementing himself as the best player in the American League.

If not for Aaron Judge registering arguably the greatest offensive season ever by a right-handed hitter, Witt would already have an AL MVP Award to his name. But in 2024, Judge was the sport’s best hitter since peak Barry Bonds, so Witt settled for second.

With Soto in the National League and regression on the table for Judge entering his age-33 season, Witt is ready to snatch the mantle. The shortstop has every tool in his kit. He led the majors in hits (211) and batting average (.332) last season. He finished fourth in OPS (.977) and second in fWAR (10.4). He hit 32 home runs and stole 31 bases. He plays elite defense. And he might just be the best player in baseball not named Ohtani by the end of his age-25 season. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Witt. Next question. … OK, we’ll go a little deeper. Witt is coming off what might just have been the best season in the history of a franchise that employed George Brett for 21 seasons — and he’s still getting better. The betting markets basically see Witt as the preseason co-favorite in the AL MVP race with Judge. It’s not hard to understand why.

But even if something went awry, the Royals might still be a factor in all the other major awards races. The Rookie of the Year category would be a long shot on paper, but if you saw the exit velocities that Jac Caglianone was generating during spring training, you would be rooting for his rapid ascension to the majors. Still, this is Witt’s team, and soon it may be Witt’s league. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Any Witt prediction would have to be especially bold — even a 40/40 prediction feels relatively tame — so let’s turn instead to Vinnie Pasquantino, who is ripe for a career year at age 27. He hits .300 with 25 home runs and makes the All-Star team. — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: The Royals went from 106 losses in 2023 to 86 wins in 2024, and a big reason for that was Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha being incredibly solid in their first seasons in Kansas City, combining to win 29 games, post a 3.16 ERA and compile 373⅓ innings.

Cole Ragans is a budding ace who should once again challenge for the American League Cy Young Award, but Lugo and Wacha will have to once again step up behind him — especially with Brady Singer now in Cincinnati. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 80-82 (28.9% playoff odds | 0.5% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Jackson Chourio solidifying himself as the Brewers’ franchise cornerstone.

Chourio made his major league debut on Opening Day last year 18 days after his 20th birthday. He arrived with six Triple-A games on his résumé and an eight-year, $82 million contract. Expectations were high. He didn’t meet them in the first half, slashing .243/.294/.384 in 85 games before the All-Star break.

The second half was a different story. The outfielder batted .310 with a .914 OPS and 12 home runs over his final 63 games, powering an offense that lost Christian Yelich for the season in late July. The Brewers wound up winning the NL Central for the third time in four years. With Willy Adames in San Francisco and Devin Williams in New York, the Brewers need Chourio to continue where he left off. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Pat Murphy is the reigning NL Manager of the Year. It’s not an award that lends itself to repeat winners. Bobby Cox (2004 and 2005) is the only skipper to win two straight seasons. Lately, winning the honor in the National League is a bad omen. The five winners prior to Murphy are no longer managing the team with which they were honored. So that leaves the Brewers a little light on likely award contenders.

There is one obvious player with MVP potential: Chourio, who just turned 21 years old. There’s been one age-21 MVP — Vida Blue, in 1971. Beginning June 8 last season, Chourio’s per-162-game numbers the rest of the way were .306/.362/.525, 26 homers, 103 RBIs, 102 runs, 26 steals. Take that and a second-year leap and … who knows? — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: What can Chourio do for an encore? His most similar players list on Baseball-Reference includes Willie Mays, Bryce Harper, Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones and Frank Robinson. That tells us about his potential. He also hit .310/.363/.552 in 63 second-half games. A .900 OPS for the entire season? Sure, let’s go there. — Schoenfield

How they can be an October threat: The Brewers need more of what Christian Yelich displayed before season-ending back surgery — a .909 OPS, his highest mark in five years, and 11 homers in 73 games — but they also need to adequately replace the stars who departed. That means Joey Ortiz, Adames’ replacement at shortstop, needs to take a step forward in his age-26 season. And Trevor Megill will have to step up in a closer’s role once held by Williams. — Gonzalez

Tier 4: If everything breaks their way

Projected record: 80-82 (27.1% playoff odds | 0.8% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The franchise’s uncertain future.

The Rays will play home games this season at Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ spring training base, while Tropicana Field undergoes repairs after Hurricane Milton left it badly damaged. Playing at Steinbrenner Field — an intimate open-air, 11,026-seat stadium — in the Florida summer heat will be a constant storyline of its own. Beyond this year, however, remains a mystery.

Earlier this month, Rays owner Stu Sternberg announced the organization will not proceed with the construction of a $1.3 billion stadium in St. Petersburg, for now leaving the Rays without a home after the 2027 season. The team has reportedly pitched a plan to contribute $200 million for more substantial renovations of Tropicana Park if the city and county also contribute $200 million and extend the lease there through 2038. For now, the plan is for the Rays to return to The Trop next season for two years. What they’ll call home after that is to be determined — and to be discussed all season. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: The original version of this section highlighted the exciting return of Shane McClanahan. After the news over the weekend that McClanahan will start the season on the IL, we’ll swap that out. Given how things have gone for the Rays in terms of pitcher health the last couple of years, maybe it’s best to steer clear of that unit in general. However, there’s no clear direction to pivot toward, so let’s continue to support McClanahan in the hope that the health news will be positive. Then let’s throw out the rest of the rotation, any of whom could emerge: Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz and Zack Littell. For all of them, the task will be to pair a pro-rata breakout with the volume that comes with good health. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Curtis Mead proves his hot spring was no fluke, wins a starting job and goes on to produce the first 4-WAR season by a player born in Australia. The current “record” belongs to reliever Liam Hendriks at 3.7 WAR, while Dave Nilsson holds the position player mark at 3.0 WAR. — Schoenfield

How they can contend: The Rays’ rotation is easy to dream on, but it’s also quite volatile. If healthy, a fivesome of Shane McClanahan (coming off a second Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (coming off a ligament procedure), Shane Baz (limited to 20 starts over the last three years), Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot can challenge the Mariners for the best rotation in the American League and potentially even carry the cash-strapped Rays to the top of the AL East. But “if healthy” is a major qualifier here. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 85-77 (52.4% playoff odds | 2.7% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The health of their three stars.

The Twins, on paper, might have the most talent in the AL Central. But their best every-day players have long injury histories. Carlos Correa (86 games played), Royce Lewis (82) and Byron Buxton (102) all missed significant time in 2024. Minnesota, as a result, faded down the stretch and missed the postseason. Lewis is already dealing with a strained left hamstring that will sideline him for the start of the season. Buxton, 31, has played more than 92 games only twice in his career. Correa was an All-Star last summer before plantar fasciitis hampered him for the second straight season (right heel in 2024 and left heel in 2023). The Twins’ fortunes hinge on the three staying on the field. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Three of the top 15 favorites for AL Cy Young are members of the Twins’ rotation, per ESPN BET: Leading the way is Pablo Lopez, with Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan lurking behind. Their numbers are similar, with Ryan rating as the most dominant and Ober with the best command. But Lopez has a decided edge in volume and consistency, making him the best combination of everything.

Over the past three seasons, Lopez has averaged 186 innings while posting an ERA+ of 110. A little luck in the BABIP and HR/FB columns — and a little run support — would push Lopez into the Cy Young conversation and could allow him to threaten the 20-win mark. We need more 20-game winners. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: It’s hard to out-bullpen Cleveland, but the Twins will have the best bullpen in the majors, leading in win probability added, with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax both posting sub-2.00 ERAs. — Schoenfield

How they can contend: It starts with the trio of Lewis, Correa and Buxton playing as many games as possible. But when the Twins won the American League Central in 2023, it was their rotation that carried them — and it was their rotation that fell off when they came up short in 2024. Lopez is still there to lead the staff, but Sonny Gray, who joined him to form a devastating combo two years ago, is long gone. Ryan, Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in the Jose Berrios trade of July 2021, need to take steps forward. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 83-79 (41.2% playoff odds | 1.8% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Tarik Skubal vying for more hardware.

A pitcher hasn’t won the American League Cy Young Award in consecutive seasons since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000, but Skubal has a real chance; the left-hander is the betting favorite. Last season, he became the 21st pitcher to win the pitching Triple Crown, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts over 192 innings. He dominated hitters this spring with a fastball that touched 100 mph, tallying 15 strikeouts to one walk in 13 ⅓ innings.

The Tigers’ rotation should be more formidable behind him with the return of Jack Flaherty and expected inclusion of top prospect Jackson Jobe at some point this season, along with Reese Olson and Casey Mize. But it all starts with Skubal. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Jackson Jobe still has some rough edges. Nevertheless, his combination of stuff, bravado and opportunity — he earned a spot in Detroit’s season-opening rotation — puts him solidly in the group of preseason Rookie of the Year favorites. Jobe looks fearless on the mound, but sometimes, fearlessness in a pitcher translates to a spate of home run balls. That’s the category to watch with him. The betting markets rate defending Cy Young winner Skubal as the favorite to repeat in that category, but that’s awfully tough to do. Skubal will be great but if Jobe starts hot, he’s got the profile of the kind of rookie who can quickly become a sensation. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Only nine Tigers outfielders have hit 30 home runs in a season — Justin Upton was the last to do it, in 2016, and Rocky Colavito is the only one to do it more than once. Riley Greene becomes the 10th and makes the All-Star team for the second consecutive season, the first Tigers outfielder to do that since Magglio Ordonez in 2006-07. — Schoenfield

How they can contend: With Greene, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Trey Sweeney and Kerry Carpenter, the Tigers have assembled what they believe to be a solid young core of position players. Last year, Greene, Meadows and Carpenter combined for an .832 OPS. If Keith and Sweeney — combined OPS of .681 — can elevate to their level, and Spencer Torkelson can recapture some of the hitting prowess that made him a No. 1 overall pick, the Tigers might win their first division title since 2014. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 78-84 (19% playoff odds | 0.5% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Jose Ramirez‘s supporting cast — and whether it’s good enough to compete again.

For the past few summers, the baseball world collectively scanned the leaderboards and realized that, yes, Ramirez somehow was still underrated. The third baseman ranks fourth in fWAR across the majors since becoming a regular in 2016. He has made six All-Star teams and finished in the top five in AL MVP voting five times. Last season might have been his best: a career-high-tying 39 home runs and a career-high 41 steals, just missing becoming the sixth member of the 40/40 club, to go with an .872 OPS in 158 games.

He is on a Hall of Fame course entering his age-32 season, but the Guardians’ offense lacks pop around him. The organization traded first baseman Josh Naylor, who was second on the team with 31 home runs last season, to the Diamondbacks and replaced him with 39-year-old Carlos Santana. No other Guardian hit more than 14 home runs. Kyle Manzardo, a former top prospect who had five homers in 53 games as a rookie last season, will be counted on to pick up some of the slack. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Ramirez is tied for fourth in the AL MVP hierarchy at ESPN Bet, fitting for a player that’s finished between second and 10th in seven of the past eight seasons. Over his past nine seasons, Ramirez has a 136 OPS+ while averaging 27 homers, 91 runs, 91 RBIs and 25 stolen bases. Ramirez is a dream combination of greatness and durability, and he keeps edging upward even as he’s entered his 30s. If he gets that one last home run to hit 40/40 this year, while once again topping 100 runs and RBIs, would that finally be enough to get him over the top? This might be Ramirez’s last best chance at the top prize. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: After a promising rookie season in 2023, Gavin Williams had some elbow issues to start 2024 and then went 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts. Williams has looked sharp this spring, though, and that will carry into a strong season: He’ll lead the rotation in WAR and ERA. — Schoenfield

How they can contend: The Guardians accumulated 436 home runs from 2022 to 2024, third fewest in the sport. Ninety-two of them were hit by Ramirez, and the man who ranks a pretty distant second on that list, Naylor, is no longer there.

It’s hard to win in this era, against pitchers this explosive, if one has to constantly manufacture runs. And that brings us to Manzardo, the young first baseman who came on strong at the tail end of his rookie season last year. He’ll have to play a big part in providing power beyond Ramirez. — Gonzalez

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20. Toronto Blue Jays

Projected record: 83-79 (39.2% playoff odds | 1.6% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s impending free agency.

The Blue Jays and their star first baseman couldn’t reach an agreement on an extension before Guerrero’s pre-spring training deadline, casting a cloud over the 2025 season and beyond for Canada’s team. Toronto has tried, and failed, to add superstars around Guerrero in recent years, but the Blue Jays have also refused to pull the plug and start a rebuild. They added veterans Andres Gimenez, Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia and Max Scherzer over the winter to compete for a playoff spot after finishing in the AL East basement last season for the first time since 2013.

Losing a player like Guerrero — a Canadian citizen who has insisted he wants to play in Toronto — would be a devastating blow to a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game in nearly a decade. But they could look to move him before the trade deadline if they’re out of the race this summer to avoid losing him for just a draft pick this winter. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Twenty years from now, we might realize that Guerrero’s incredible age-22 season was his apex and he was simply a rare player who had his best campaign at a young age. But what if that’s not his career season? What if that’s still to come? This is a platform season for Guerrero, and it’s his age-26 campaign. Well, he had 1.002 OPS with 48 homers and 123 runs in that 2021 breakout. If he beats those numbers in service of a rousing Blue Jays run, it will be tough for Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson or anyone else to top him in the balloting. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Blue Jays will face an excruciatingly tough decision at the trade deadline if they’re, say, four or five games out of the wild-card race and they’re scuffling along around .500. While free agents sometimes return to the same team — see: Aaron Judge — they usually don’t. The bold prediction here? The Jays are far enough back that Guerrero is traded … to Seattle or Milwaukee. — Schoenfield

How they can contend: Guerrero posted an adjusted OPS of 166 last season. Outside of that, the only regulars — or semi-regulars — who posted an adjusted OPS of even 110 were Spencer Horwitz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, both of whom were traded over the offseason. Extending Guerrero is the most important thing the Blue Jays can do this year, but surrounding him with productive hitters in the lineup ranks second. Santander will help, but Bo Bichette desperately needs to bounce back. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 76-86 (14.6% playoff odds | 0.2% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Elly De La Cruz taking the next step in his superstar ascent.

The 23-year-old shortstop put together his first All-Star season in 2024, making significant progress from his rookie year to finish with 25 home runs, 67 steals and 6.4 fWAR in 160 games. He’s one of the sport’s most exciting players and an explosive five-tool talent who can stir crowds in every phase of the game. And there’s room for more improvement, because, while he’s a thrilling performer, he led the majors with 218 strikeouts last season. If he can improve his contract rate (and stay healthy), a top-five MVP finish should follow. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: A five-week absence due to a sore elbow torpedoed what was morphing into a solid Cy Young case for Hunter Greene, but the Reds’ Opening Day starter is now a full go. Greene is a blast to watch, firing triple-digit four-seamers with his 6-foot-5 frame and an arm action that seems to sweep halfway across the infield. That’s fearsome enough but Greene also hit a league-high 19 batters in 2024, so you can’t dig in against this guy. Maybe that’s a big part of why he yielded only 0.7 homers per nine innings despite playing half his games at Great American Ball Park. At this point, all Greene needs to become a leading Cy Young contender is a healthy season of 30 or more starts. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: In 2023, Ronald Acuna Jr. initiated the 40/70 club (41 steals, 73 stolen bases). In 2024, Ohtani created the 50/50 club. In 2025, De La Cruz will establish the 30/80 club with 30 home runs and 80 stolen bases. Or better yet, the 40/10/30/80/120/100/200 club — 40 doubles, 10 triples, 30 home runs, 80 stolen bases, 120 runs, 100 RBIs, 200 strikeouts. Would that give him a shot at the MVP Award? He’ll finish in the top five of the voting. — Schoenfield

How they can contend: With Matt McLain back, the Reds’ offense looks deep and has a chance to be special. But to win the National League Central, they’ll need a bounce-back year from their closer, Alexis Diaz, and they’ll need Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott — their three young, homegrown starters — to take another leap forward. Greene began to display his dominance in 2024, making his first All-Star team and finishing eighth in National League Cy Young Award voting, but Lodolo and Abbott combined for a 4.16 ERA. They can be better. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 80-82 (24.6% playoff odds | 0.6% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Buster Posey’s effect on the organization.

Dismissing a president of baseball operations is one thing — it’s a near annual occurrence in baseball. But Giants ownership’s decision to move from Farhan Zaidi to Buster Posey represents a deeper shift. Zaidi, who never played baseball at a high level, relied on analytics for his team-building. Posey, one of the greatest players in franchise history, is taking a more old-school approach.

The Giants haven’t reached the postseason since their out-of-left-field 107-win season in 2021. Posey was that team’s catcher; he retired weeks later. Chances are San Francisco won’t make the playoffs again in 2025 — FanGraphs computes a 29.2% chance — but this season will be vital as Posey implements the foundation for his vision. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Over his past three seasons, Logan Webb‘s average campaign has featured 204 innings, a 124 ERA+, 176 strikeouts and 4.6 bWAR. His Cy Young finishes have been 11th, second and sixth. The innings count — for the 2020s — is a lot, but Webb has never been a hurler who’s relied on high-octane gas to put up his metronomic production, so there’s little reason to suspect anything will be different in 2025. If sharing a rotation with past Cy Young winners gives him any extra push, Webb is in good shape: Three-time honoree Justin Verlander joined the Giants this winter and 2021 AL Cy Young Robbie Ray was already on board. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: Bryce Eldridge, who will spend the entire season at just 20 years old and has only 40 plate appearances above Single-A, will begin the season in the minors. But the towering 6-foot-7 lefty slugger will be up soon enough — and lead the team in home runs. — Schoenfield

How they can contend: The Giants’ offense should improve with Jung Hoo Lee coming back from a labrum tear and Willy Adames taking over at shortstop. But their starting rotation accumulated the fewest innings in the National League last season — even though they employed the league leader, Logan Webb — and only a 42-year-old Verlander was added to the mix. Their young starters — a group that consists of Kyle Harrison, Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong and Joe Whitman — need to take steps forward. — Gonzalez

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Tier 5: We’re saying there’s a chance

23. Athletics

Projected record: 74-88 (8.4% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The (West Sacramento) Athletics’ situation off the field is unfortunate, but their future on the field is bright.

No matter what they say publicly, playing out of a minor league stadium with the clubhouse behind the left-field wall for the next three seasons is an inconvenience. The good news is the team should continue improving and could exceed expectations this season.

The Athletics, in very un-Athletics fashion, spent significant money over the winter, giving Luis Severino the richest contract in franchise history, signing closer Jose Leclerc and infielder Luis Urias, and agreeing to contract extensions with Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler. They also acquired left-hander Jeffrey Springs and third baseman Gio Urshela to bolster a team that had the fourth-best record in the AL after July 1 last season. More of that and the A’s could find themselves in the playoff race. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Jacob Wilson, the son of former Pirates defensive whiz Jack, got a good taste of big-league action in 2024 but retains rookie eligibility entering the new season. He’s got a unique profile, one that doesn’t feature much power but with plus contact and on-base skills. To enter the awards chase, he’d have to turn some heads with his defensive metrics (as his father used to do), steal some bases and maybe run into a few balls under the hot Sacramento sun. Still, as an every-day, big league rookie shortstop, unless Wilson’s offensive numbers flatline, he’ll hover around the AL Rookie of the Year conversation. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: How much will Rooker enjoy hitting in Sacramento? Very much, thank you. He belts 53 home runs, edging out Aaron Judge for the AL title. — Schoenfield

How they can take a leap forward this season: The A’s have assembled a young position-player core they hope to take to Las Vegas with them, assuming ballpark construction goes as planned. It consists of Butler, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, Wilson and Nick Kurtz, who’s still a year or two away. Their continued development is crucial. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 74-88 (10.4% playoff odds | 0.3% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Every single Paul Skenes start.

Skenes’ outings became appointment television last season after the Pirates finally called him up in May. He came as advertised, slicing through lineups every fifth day for an otherwise mediocre club. Skenes went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts in 23 starts, won NL Rookie of the Year, and finished third in the NL Cy Young race. It’s hard to imagine Skenes being even better in 2025 — but he spent his winter adding a cutter and a sinker to his repertoire. He expects better — and it still might not be enough for the Pirates to snap their nine-year playoff drought. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: The betting markets have designated Skenes as a fairly heavy favorite to win NL Cy Young honors and even have him tied for 10th in the MVP hierarchy. The latter is unlikely for any pitcher these days, but if anyone is capable of piling up the overwhelming numbers that would be needed to overtake Shohei Ohtani and the rest, it’s Skenes. If there is any concern about Skenes beyond the fact that he’s chosen for himself the perilous occupation of throwing a baseball, it’s that expectations for his sophomore season are stratospheric. This kind of hype has never been a problem for Skenes before, though. The expectations were there a year ago and … Skenes’ rookie season numbers, prorated to 162 games, were 16-4 with 251 strikeouts, 0.947 WHIP, 8.7 bWAR. And what if he’s actually gotten better? — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Pirates have had only two Cy Young winners — Vern Law in 1960 and Doug Drabek in 1990, neither of which were particularly historic seasons (both clock in at 4.2 WAR, low for a Cy Young winner). Predicting Skenes to win the Cy Young isn’t exactly bold, so let’s go with this: Skenes has the best season ever for a Pirates starter, at least in the lively ball era. The best marks since 1920 are John Candelaria’s 7.4 WAR (1977), Bob Veale’s 2.05 ERA (1968) and Veale’s 276 strikeouts (1965). Skenes could top all three of those marks. — Schoenfield

How they can take a leap forward this season: It’s already clear that Skenes and Jared Jones will make up a special duo on the pitching staff, but what about Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes on offense? This is a big year for both of them. Cruz — heading into his age-26 season, and his first as a full-time center fielder — had a nice bounce-back year coming off a fractured fibula, slashing .259/.324/.449 with 21 homers and 22 steals in 146 games in 2024. But there’s another step for him to take. Hayes, 28, is a fantastic defender at third base, but he has slashed only .258/.313/.385 through parts of five seasons and homered only four times while dealing with back issues last year. His power needs to emerge. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 81-81 (33.9% playoff odds | 0.7% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Nolan Arenado trade rumors.

It’s a surprise that 33-year-old Arenado is still a Cardinals employee considering president of baseball operations John Mozeliak was so public — on multiple occasions — about his desire to trade him over the winter. But the future Hall of Famer remains the team’s third baseman after using his no-trade clause to veto a trade to the Astros in December. At this point, a move seems to be a matter of time. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: The Cardinals are in a weird place for a lot of reasons. The roster has good players but there aren’t many obvious top awards candidates. The Redbirds project to be within range of possible contention in their tepid division, though you could argue that each of their four NL Central brethren has more near-term upside.

In the end, you could look at all of this as a personal opportunity for oft-beleaguered skipper Oliver Marmol. With his club still apparently angling to move some of their top veterans, Marmol might be able to create a Lou Brown dynamic. If Marmol is able to break through the ongoing limbo and get the Cardinals into the playoffs, that’s Manager of the Year stuff. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Cardinals stay in the NL Central race until the final week of the season, even though they end the year with four rookies in the rotation — Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy, Tink Hence and Cooper Hjerpe. — Schoenfield

How they can take a leap forward this season: The Cardinals are clearly a team in transition, and yet their general inactivity hasn’t necessarily indicated as much. Success for them this year means getting production from the array of veterans still dotting their roster — Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz — and then getting young players back for them via trade, either at midseason or over the ensuing winter. There are some no-trade clauses sprinkled in there, not just with Arenado but with Contreras and Gray, too, so it could be tricky. — Gonzalez

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Tier 6: Already playing for next year

Projected record: 68-94 (1.9% playoff odds | 0.02% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The young core’s progress.

With James Wood and Dylan Crews on the roster in Washington, the Nationals’ rebuild has reached its next phase: After consecutive 91-loss seasons, it’s now about winning more games.

While they didn’t spend in free agency as perhaps expected, they did add veterans Josh Bell, Nathaniel Lowe, Paul DeJong, Amed Rosario and Michael Soroka, which should better supplement the youthful talent. The Nationals hope this team resembles the 2011 club that jumped from 69 to 80 wins. A year later, Bryce Harper made his debut, and the Nationals won 98 games and the NL East for the first time. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: The door is wide open for Crews to make an NL Rookie of the Year push. Lots of eyes are on Roki Sasaki, but Crews will be playing every day for the Nats. If he fills up the stat sheet — and if the raw ability that made him the second pick of the 2023 draft shines through — it’s a classic ROY profile. Crews struggled during his stint in the majors last season, which wasn’t long enough to remove his rookie eligibility. If he shows progress at the plate, Crews’ full range of skills will have him in the running. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: After combining for 38 home runs in 2024, Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams both reach the 25-homer mark — becoming only the seventh pair of middle-infield teammates to reach that number in the same season since 2010. — Schoenfield

How their season can be a success: Abrams, Wood, Garcia and MacKenzie Gore — the faces of this next phase in Nationals history — are coming off the types of years they can really build on. Crews is a popular pick to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award. But the Nationals need Keibert Ruiz, who they still hope is their long-term catcher, to show some real progress. His defense was better in 2024 — though still not great — but his OPS fell by nearly 100 points, from a mediocre .717 to an abysmal .619. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 74-88 (8.9% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Mike Trout‘s future and whether it’ll be in Anaheim.

The Angels are stuck. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2009 — two years before Trout’s debut. They haven’t advanced to the postseason since 2014, somehow not capitalizing on employing Trout and Shohei Ohtani at the same time. They’ve lost at least 85 games in every full season since 2019. And yet they refuse to blow it up and start a thorough rebuild. Part of the reason is that Trout’s contract, which runs through the 2030 season, has a no-trade clause and he has not pushed for a trade. Could that change? Trout staying on the field and producing to boost his value — he’s played in 266 games since the start of the 2021 season — would help. Maybe another losing season will prompt a divorce. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: The answer to this prompt has been the same for the Angels for so long — why change it now? Maybe this is as much a testament to Trout’s greatness as anything: Despite annual issues with injury, which limited him to 29 games in 2024, and declining percentages on top of that, ESPN BET still gives Trout the ninth-highest odds for AL MVP. Maybe Trout’s move out of center field really will help keep him on the field. His per-162 numbers over these past three years of injury and numbers erosion are still eye-popping: 7.1 bWAR, 48 homers, 155 OPS+. At 33 years of age, the most important number for Trout is simply games played. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Angels had four 20-homer hitters last season — one of 10 teams with at least that many (Arizona was the only team with five). Trout and Jorge Soler also get there in 2025 to make it six 20-homer hitters. Alas, the Angels still lose 95 games. — Schoenfield

How their season can be a success: The Angels have defended the languid state of their organization by talking up their young nucleus. Their continued development is what this season is all about. That includes Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel and Mickey Moniak on the position-player side, the flame-throwing Ben Joyce in the bullpen, and the likes of Reid Detmers, Caden Dana and Sam Aldegheri in the rotation. The most interesting name to watch there, though, is Jose Soriano, who has electric stuff but a checkered injury history and will be transitioning to the rotation full time. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 57-105 (0.1% playoff odds | 0% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The long road ahead.

In almost every other division, the Rockies would be able to see a light, however distant, at the end of the tunnel. But they share a division with the Dodgers, which means light year is the best unit of measurement to describe the distance between the two franchises. On top of that, the Diamondbacks reloaded this offseason, the Padres were a win away from bouncing the Dodgers in October and the Giants appear poised to snap out of their recent malaise. The Rockies might find themselves trapped in the basement for a while. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Almost certainly, a legit Rockies awards candidacy would fall into the Rookie of the Year category. Who that candidate turns out to be is at present unclear, but not because Colorado lacks exciting kids on the rise. Zac Veen (who was sent down to Triple-A over the weekend) is a recent top prospect whose rankings have plummeted, but he’s had an excellent spring. The best candidate is probably righty Chase Dollander, the Rockies’ top prospect. But Dollander had an up-and-down spring and was reassigned to the minors over the weekend. For now, let’s go with Veen, who seems to have the best combination of MLB playing time opportunity and genuine upside. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: You can’t go much bolder than this considering the low expectations in Colorado: The Rockies end up with two All-Stars for the first time since 2019 — outfielder Brenton Doyle and reliever Victor Vodnik. — Schoenfield

How their season can be a success: Production from Kris Bryant. That contract is an albatross. He has been paid $71 million to play in 159 games and slashed only .250/.332/.381 over the past three years — while spending basically half the time in Colorado, mind you. Four years and $104 million remain, but Bryant is just 33, young enough to maintain some impact potential. And though what’s most important for a team like this is the development of young players, the Rockies desperately need Bryant to be a productive player. They need him to not be Anthony Rendon. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 63-99 (0.4% playoff odds | 0% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Miami’s next big trade.

The Marlins are probably going to trade Sandy Alcántara by the July deadline (as long as he stays healthy). And if Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix follows last year’s blueprint, it’ll happen early in the season — last year, Bendix traded Luis Arraez to the Padres for prospects on May 4. Several contenders could use Alcántara, the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner, but with two guaranteed years and a club option for 2027 remaining on his contract, it’s going to take a haul if he’s continuing to unleash nasty stuff every five days. The 29-year-old right-hander’s sinker touched 100 mph in his return from Tommy John surgery this spring. His changeup remains wicked. His slider sits at 90 mph. He could end up altering a pennant race. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: Does it count if your best awards candidate is someone who isn’t likely to be around by the time the ballots are collected? Let’s say it does! Sandy Alcántara is back and this spring he looks like, well, Sandy Alcántara. That guy has already won one Cy Young award and is good enough to do it again, even after missing all of 2024. If we want to focus on players the Marlins aren’t going to trade, keep an eye on catcher Agustin Ramirez in the Rookie of the Year race. He’ll start the season in the minors, but if all goes well, it shouldn’t take long for him to mash his way to Miami. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Marlins quickly fall out of the race in April and trade Alcántara to … surprise! — the Athletics, for a package of prospects, including pitcher Mason Barnett and infielder Max Muncy. — Schoenfield

How their season can be a success: The biggest problem facing the Marlins is the general apathy that surrounds them in their market — much of which is self-inflicted. The ruthlessness at the start of the Peter Bendix era, which saw the trades of Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jake Burger, Jesus Luzardo and Tanner Scott, among others, only made it worse. It was all motivated by a desire to build the type of sustained winner this market hasn’t had — the hope of building the Tampa Bay Rays of South Florida, essentially. But the returns of those trades need to show themselves. The Marlins once again need players their fans can get excited about. — Gonzalez

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Projected record: 54-108 (0.03% playoff odds | 0% World Series odds)

The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Luis Robert Jr.’s trade value.

The White Sox are going to be bad this season. Probably not 121-loss bad, but bad enough to make clear that their rebuild is still in the strip-the-roster-to-the-studs phase. The next step will ideally include converting Robert into assets for the next good White Sox team down the road. Maximizing the return at the trade deadline will require Robert, a five-tool talent, rediscovering his 2023 form. Robert posted a 4.9-fWAR season that year, hitting 38 home runs with an .857 OPS in 145 games. He doesn’t turn 28 until August, and he’s under team control through 2027. Quality center fielders are scarce. Robert could help a contender down the stretch — if not sooner. — Castillo

Most likely 2025 award winner: If the White Sox climb over .500 and/or make the playoffs, rookie skipper Will Venable would be a shoo-in for Manager of the Century, much less the season. More likely is a Rookie of the Year push from shortstop Colson Montgomery. That’s true even though Montgomery was optioned to AAA during spring training and Chicago might have four rookies in its rotation to begin the season. Montgomery is the best prospect of the bunch and shouldn’t be at Charlotte long, if he performs. After all, there is no one standing in his way at the big league level. — Doolittle

One (realistic) bold prediction: The White Sox don’t wait long to trade Robert, dealing him in mid-May to the Astros for a prospect package centered around infielder Brice Matthews. The club finishes with 110 losses — matching the 1962-63 Mets as the only teams to lose at least 110 games in consecutive seasons. — Schoenfield

How their season can be a success: By not suffering triple-digit losses. By giving the players in their clubhouse and the fans in their stands something to get excited about moving forward. By Noah Schultz looking more like the next Chris Sale. By Robert staying healthy and Miguel Vargas finding himself. And by the likes of Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Hagen Smith developing into guys they can build around. — Gonzalez